Garbage Report

Gifts from above

Young just happened to be in the right place at the right time last Sunday.

Can a score be counted as "garbage-time production" if it ties or wins a game?

Usually, the answer is "no," but in the case of the two Hail Mary's we saw last weekend, our answer has to be "yes."

Just look at our garbage-time parameters:

  • If the point differential is 25 or more at any point in the fourth quarter.
  • If the point differential is 17 or more with 7:30 (or less) left to play in the fourth quarter.
  • If the point differential is 9 or more with 3:45 (or less) left to play in the fourth quarter.
  • Give-up plays at the end of the first half or second half (including Hail Mary's and kneel downs).

Hail Mary's have always been included in our definition, and we've always pointed out that Hail Mary interceptions shouldn't count against quarterbacks.

But completed Hail Mary's are a pretty rare thing, so to see two in one weekend is pretty remarkable -- even if one shouldn't have counted. More important for our purposes, though, is that fantasy owners have to adjust how they view the players involved in those plays.

The Hail Mary that tied the Lions-Titans game, a 46-yarder to Titus Young, made it look like he had a respectable game. Without that play, Young would have finished with five catches for 29 yards. Six catches for 75 yards and a TD looks so much better.

To be fair, Young was getting more looks than he had in the first two weeks, but he still was on his way to a third straight disappointing performance. The Hail Mary was a fluke, and it's not representative of Young's current or future value. It's entirely possible that he breaks out of his early-season funk, but right now, he's no better than the fourth option in Detroit's passing game.

Much like the Lions-Titans Hail Mary, the miracle finish in the Packers-Seahawks game, a 24-yarder to Golden Tate, helped both Tate and Russell Wilson look like they had better fantasy days than they really did. Without that toss, Tate would have finished with two catches for 44 yards. Wilson would have finished 9-of-21 for 106 yards and one TD. That's the kind of stat line we make fun of Blaine Gabbert or Brandon Weeden for having, but Wilson is still hanging around fantasy rosters as a backup.

Ultimately, fantasy owners need to make mental asterisks when it comes to these players. It's easy to be swayed when you just look at a player's overall line ("Well, he does a have touchdown catch"), but these scores were even flukier than a standard garbage-time touchdown.

In a couple weeks, these stats will just blend in with the rest on a player's game-log page, but savvy owners won't forget how they were accumulated. Use this to your advantage when making lineup decisions and weighing trade offers.

Week 3 Charlie Sheen Award:

Shaun Hill, QB, Lions: 7-for-8, 122 yards, 2 TDs (16.88 fantasy points). Hill obviously benefitted from the Young Hail Mary catch, but he also benefitted from Tennessee's soft defense the drive before. Hill is more than capable of exploiting bad defenses, and if Matthew Stafford is forced to miss time this season, Hill has fantasy potential. Stafford owners had to hate the fact that he missed out on these easy points, as he would've gone over 300 yards if not for the hip injury that sidelined him late in the fourth quarter.

Week 3 Emilio Estevez Honorable Mention:

Titus Young, WR, Lions: 1 catch, 46 yards, TD (10.6 fantasy points). On the drive prior to the Hail Mary, it was all Calvin Johnson (3-45, TD) and Joique Bell (3-31). The week before, Bell (1-50), Johnson (1-22) and Brandon Pettigrew (2-14, TD) were the primary garbage-time targets for Detroit. It looks like the Lions will lean heavily on long passes to Johnson and dump-offs to Bell or the TEs in most garbage-time situations, so even blowouts don't necessarily figure to help Young's future value.

Week 3 Garbage Notes

The Giants weren't victims of any Hail Mary passes -- or even any garbage-time touchdowns -- but they did have 105 garbage-time passing yards put up against them by the Panthers. Unfortunately for owners of Cam Newton, backup QB Derek Anderson wound up with 46 of those yards after Newton was benched. The Giants' secondary has some problems, but it was solid against the Panthers. Both Steve Smith (2-56) and DeAngelo Williams (2-23) really inflated their fantasy totals in the game's final minutes.

Josh Freeman threw for just 110 yards last week, with 71 of them coming in garbage time. Both Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson had garbage-time catches of 20-plus yards, though neither finished with more than 33 yards for the game. Clearly, the Bucs' passing game needs work. Perhaps even more clearly, Dallas' pass defense is very, very good.

Peyton Manning connected with Joel Dreesen for a six-yard TD pass with three minutes left in a 13-point game against Houston. It was an especially fluky play, as the pass was intended for Eric Decker and it tipped off his hands and essentially over two Houston defenders. We didn't count Denver's final drive -- when it was trailing by six with 20 seconds left -- as garbage, though we probably should have given the spirit of what we do. Manning added another 29 passing yards on that drive, all to Decker. We did count Demaryius Thomas's lost fumble on a lateral on the final play of the game as garbage, though.

For the second straight week, Jackie Battle came alive in garbage time, breaking off a 52-yard run. He now has an RB-leading 14.8 garbage-time fantasy points, which accounts for almost 61 percent of his total fantasy production. Don't be fooled into thinking Battle is a flex option.

Robert Griffin III's two-yard rushing TD came with 3:35 left in a 14-point game. Had it occurred 11 seconds earlier or in an eight-point game, we wouldn't have counted it as garbage. But, by the letter of the law we've created, it counts. By making it a one-possession contest, there was no more garbage-time the rest of the game.

Just as in Week 1, Michael Turner didn't see a garbage-time carry while the Falcons were running out the clock with a big lead. Jacquizz Rodgers handled all the garbage-time work, rushing five times for nine yards. This doesn't necessarily increase his fantasy value (though it doesn't hurt), but it certainly doesn't help Turner, who needs some easy yards given his uninspired play so far this season.

Ryan Williams carried four times for 38 yards while running out the clock against the Eagles, and he could be in line for a bigger garbage-time workload in the future, as his backup, LaRod Stephens-Howling, carried five times for minus-three yards. With Stephens-Howling hurt, preseason sensation William Powell will get a chance to earn some playing time, and how he does in garbage time could go a long way in determining his future role. That has been the case with Kansas City's Shaun Draughn this year.

Toby Gerhart (-3.6), Alex Smith (-2.14), Demaryius Thomas (-2), Dante Rosario (-2), Sam Bradford (-1.84) and Brandon Weeden (-1.74) all saw the ugly side of garbage time, posting negative values thanks to turnovers. Both Gerhart and Smith had multiple giveaways, and Gerhart's two fumbles might cost him future playing time since they came while Minnesota was trying to preserve a lead. That's good news for Adrian Peterson.

In a rare occurrence, no players used garbage-time to top the 300-yard passing mark or 100-yard rushing/receiving mark last week.

Garbage-time Leader Board (through Week 3):


Rank Player Fantasy Points
1. Matt Cassel 17.82
2. Shaun Hill 16.88
3t. Ryan Fitzpatrick 15.26
3t. Drew Brees 15.26
5. Carson Palmer 10.04


Rank Player Fantasy Points
1. Jackie Battle 14.8
2. Shaun Draughn 13.0
3. Darren Sproles 12.1
4. Shonn Greene 8.6
5. Joique Bell 8.1


Rank Player Fantasy Points
1. Dwayne Bowe 16.6
2. Calvin Johnson 12.7
3. Titus Young 11.7
4. Rod Streater 9.5
5t. Donald Jones 8.9
5t. Stevie Johnson 8.9


Rank Player Fantasy Points
1. Kellen Davis 8.1
2. Brandon Pettigrew 7.4
3. Martellus Bennett 7.3
4. Joel Dreesen 6.6
5. Brandon Myers 5.1

Run Defense

Rank Team Yards Allowed
1. Bills 76
2. Falcons 74
3. Chiefs 71
4. Titans 50
5. Jets 44

Pass Defense

Rank Team Yards Allowed
1. Bills 149
2. Titans 122
3. Chargers 112
4. Jets 99
5. 49ers 97

Matt Lutovsky is a fantasy football expert for Sporting News


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