Become a digitalPLUS subscriber. $13 for 13 weeks.

Emmy underdogs

The lazy way to win an Emmy Awards pool is to study expert predictions and go with all the favorites.

But what's the fun in filling out a bracket that's nothing but "The Sopranos," the stars of "The Sopranos," the writers of "The Sopranos" and Kelsey Grammer (doesn't he always win, even if he doesn't have a show on the air)? Isn't it more worthwhile to root for contenders who really deserve a shot?

Here are a few nominees who probably won't -- but, based on their work -- really should take home an Emmy. If you pick them and they lose, you run the risk of looking foolish. But if you pick them because you think they're worthy and they win? You're the resident genius at your Emmy party, complete with all the attendant laurels.

These no-guts-no-glory underdogs are listed in order of plausibility.

Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series
Likely winner: Anybody's guess
But why not bet on: Masi Oka, "Heroes"

Terry O'Quinn has the category's best performance, Michael Imperioli has the collective weight of "Sopranos" nostalgia, T.R. Knight has a tremendously sympathetic back story, and William Shatner is William Shatner, so why would you pick anybody else?

Oka went into the Golden Globes as the soft-spot favorite for awards prognosticators, but lost to Jeremy Irons for "Elizabeth I," so perhaps some of his sheen is off. That's why Oka is suddenly an interesting post-hype pick. Not only is this a good chance for the TV Academy to honor "Heroes" in a major category, but Oka's submission episode, "Five Years Gone," was one of the series' standouts, with Oka playing two very different versions of his character.



Outstanding writing for a drama series
Likely winner: Something from "The Sopranos"
But why not bet on: Damon Lindelof and Carlton Cuse for the "Through the Looking Glass" episode of "Lost"

Three of the five nominees in this category come from three of the final four episodes of "The Sopranos," possibly the most scrutinized episodes of any television show in history. If you assume that as many people hated David Chase's "Sopranos" finale as loved it (put me in the latter camp), how will voters choose between "The Second Coming" (the episode likely to win James Gandolfini his Emmy) and "Kennedy and Heidi" (a confusingly titled episode that started with the death of a beloved character)? Left unable to choose, voters may recognize the brain-cramping, head-scratching, structure-bending season finale of "Lost," an episode that took everything fans thought they knew about the show and turned it upside-down.

Outstanding reality-competition program
Likely winner: "The Amazing Race"
But why not bet on: Something that isn't "The Amazing Race"

Nowhere is the industry's reticence to recognize reality TV more obvious than this key category, which "The Amazing Race" has won four straight years, as if voters determined that by only lauding this single, moderately rated Chrysler of unscripted vehicles, its less savory (more popular) brethren could be swept under the rug.

Perhaps this is the year something else wins? ABC's "Dancing With the Stars" has a bigger audience and some celebrity cool. Bravo's "Project Runway" and "Top Chef" have that cable network's patina of literate quality.

But this may be the year TV's most-watched show, "American Idol," breaks through. Sure, the show suffered a ratings decline in this sixth installment, as the combination of a mundane final group and the nationwide spread of 'Sanjayaphobia' took hold, but with "Idol Gives Back," the show donated more than $70 million to charity in a star-studded telecast that included a duet between Celine Dion and Zombie Elvis. Will voters be able to resist?

Outstanding lead actress in a drama series
Likely winner: Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
But why not bet on: Sally Field, "Brothers & Sisters"

When is a two-time Emmy winner and a two-time Oscar winner making a triumphant return to prime time just another dark horse? Maybe when her competition includes the category's 2006 winner (Mariska Hargitay), the 2005 winner (Patricia Arquette), the 2003 winner (Edie Falco), plus a recent Golden Globe winner (Kyra Sedgwick).

Sally Field's odds would be even better if her "Brothers & Sisters" submission episode, the mid-season "Mistakes Were Made, Part II," weren't focused so completely on the eponymous brothers and sisters, rather than on Field's grieving widow. At least Field didn't try to sway voters with the episode in which she got into an embarrassing food fight with fellow former Emmy winner Patricia Wettig, but surely another hour might have better showcased Field's gifts. That's why this former flying nun is a good "buy low" opportunity.

Outstanding lead actress in a miniseries or movie
Likely winner: Helen Mirren, "Prime Suspect: The Final Act"
But why not bet on: Mary-Louise Parker, "The Robber Bride"

Every year, the Vegas tipsters monitoring Final Four basketball odds set one No. 16 seed with trillion-to-one odds. And who hasn't felt the desire to plunk a buck down on Oral Roberts or Liberty or Oakland University. You won't win. But you won't win the lottery either, and wouldn't a trillion dollars be nice?

Well, Helen Mirren's going to win this category. She's probably unbeatable. So why gamble a hypothetical buck on the category's biggest longshot, the actress from a network with the lowest Emmy profile (that'd be Oxygen). It doesn't hurt that Parker won an Emmy in the past (part of the "Angels in America" juggernaut) and won't get her deserved win in the comedy lead category.

Copyright © 2014, Chicago Tribune
Related Content