Edition: U.S. / Global

THREATS AND RESPONSES: INTELLIGENCE; C.I.A. Says Iraq Revived Forbidden Weapons Programs After the U.N. Inspectors Left

Published: October 5, 2002

The Central Intelligence Agency said today that Iraq had taken advantage of the withdrawal of United Nations weapons inspectors to resume the production of chemical arms, expand efforts to develop biological weapons and revive its program to make nuclear arms.

Much of the C.I.A. report echoes the British government's recent assessment of Iraq's weapons programs. Still, the agency's report is the most up-to-date American assessment of Iraq's efforts to make weapons of mass destruction and comes at a critical juncture in the Congressional debate over the possible use of force to overthrow the government of Saddam Hussein.

''Since inspections ended in 1998, Iraq has maintained its chemical weapons effort, energized its missile program and invested more heavily in biological weapons,'' the C.I.A. report said. ''Most analysts assess Iraq is reconstituting its nuclear weapons program.''

In building its case for a possible military campaign, the Bush administration has cited Iraq's efforts to develop nuclear weapons and threatened to use force to overthrow the Baghdad government if Mr. Hussein does not agree to unrestricted and highly intrusive inspections.

The C.I.A. report says Iraq would probably not be able to make a nuclear weapon until the last half of the decade unless it acquired fissile material through the black market. If fissile material was smuggled into Iraq, the government could make a nuclear weapon within a year, according to the agency's assessment.

''Although Saddam probably does not yet have nuclear weapons or sufficient material to make any, he remains intent on acquiring them,'' the report said.

British intelligence has concluded that Iraq could make a nuclear weapon within two years, if it acquired fissile material, while the International Institute for Strategic Studies has said Iraq might be able to use the material to make a bomb in a matter of months.

One sign of Iraq's nuclear intentions was Baghdad's effort to purchase high-strength aluminum tubes, the report said. It also said that American intelligence experts agreed that Iraq was seeking to make nuclear arms and that the tubes could be used to make centrifuges to enrich uranium.

''Most intelligence specialists assess this to be the intended use, but some believe that these tubes are probably intended for conventional weapons programs,'' it added.

A classified National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq's programs to make weapons of mass destruction was provided to Congress early this week. The unclassified report released today generally reflects the conclusions of the classified review and is posted on the agency's Web site (www.cia.gov).

The agency's account of Iraq's chemical and biological arms provides an indication of the sort of threats American forces may face if President Bush orders an invasion of Iraq. Congress had asked for the agency's official intelligence estimate before a decision to authorize any military action was made.

Iraq, the report said, has rebuilt weapons plants destroyed in American air raids. ''Baghdad has begun renewed production of chemical warfare agents, probably including mustard, sarin, cyclosarin and VX,'' the C.I.A. said. The agency estimates that Iraq has several hundred metric tons of chemical agents that it could put in bombs, artillery shells and missile warheads.

As for biological arms, the agency said that ''all key aspects'' of Iraq's offensive biological weapons program were active and that ''most elements are larger and more advanced than they were before the Gulf war.''

Iraq, it said, has mobile germ laboratories that are easy to hide. It is also suspected to be working on germ weapons at three sites: the Dawrah Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccine Facility, the Amiriyah Serum and Vaccine Institute and the Fallujah III Castrol Oil Production Plant.

Regarding missiles, Iraq maintains a covert force of several dozen Scud missiles, the C.I.A. said. The British have estimated that Iraq has up to 20 Scuds.

Iraq has also carried out missile work that is prohibited by the United Nations. After the Persian Gulf war in 1991, the United Nations said Iraq's surface-to-surface missiles could not have range greater than 90 miles. But the new report said Iraq had used its work on permitted systems as a cover for the development of longer-range missiles.

The report noted, for instance, that Iraq has rebuilt the Mutasim Solid Rocket Motor and Test Facility. The site is used to make solid fuel motors for the permitted Ababil-100 missile, but the scale of the sites, the agency says, indicates that Iraq is planning to develop longer-range systems.

The C.I.A. also asserts that Iraq has sought to covert L-29 trainer aircraft into unmanned drones that can disperse poison gas and biological agents.

The report does not say whether inspections could succeed in disarming Iraq. It said Iraq sought to hide its weapon program when United Nations monitors had access to Iraq and has stepped up its weapons research and development since they were withdrawn in 1998.

''In the absence of inspectors, Baghdad's already considerable ability to work on prohibited programs without risk of discovery has increased,'' the report said. It added that ''Baghdad's vigorous concealment efforts'' had left information on many aspects of its weapons on mass destruction programs uncovered.

Photo: Equipment, its uses unknown, seen at the Qaqa chemical complex south of Baghdad last month, when journalists were given a tour of the site. (Pool photo by APTN, via Associated Press) Chart/Map: ''Iraq's Weapons Sites'' These maps show what the Central Intelligence Agency described as weapons sites on documents released by the agency yesterday. Map of Iraq shows where nuclear sites, biological weapons, chemical weapons and ballistic missiles are located.