A science blog with Eric Berger

Texas’ list of 10 costliest storms tell us nothing of the real risk the state faces


Hurricane Ike, with estimated damage of $20 billion, is called the costliest hurricane ever to strike Texas. But is it really the costliest and most damaging storm of all time? That is, if the Great 1900 Storm were to come ashore today, would it really have done less damage than Ike?

We cannot say for sure, of course, but making reasonable suppositions one may take a crack at answering such questions. And that’s one of the many uses of a fantastic new hurricane Web site developed by ICAT, a Colorado insurance company. The site provides easy access to historical hurricane damage information.

For reference, here are the top 10 hurricanes to strike Texas since 1900, in values unadjusted for inflation.

1. Hurricane Ike (Sep 13, 2008, 110 mph at landfall) $20,000,000,000

2. Tropical Storm Allison (Jun 05, 2001, 60 mph) $5,000,000,000

3. Hurricane Alicia (Aug 18, 1983, 115 mph) $2,000,000,000

4. Hurricane Dolly (Jul 23, 2008, 85 mph) $1,050,000,000

5. Tropical Storm Allison (Jun 26, 1989, 60 mph) $500,000,000

6. Tropical Storm Frances (Sep 13, 1998, 60 mph) $500,000,000

7. Hurricane Celia (Aug 03, 1970, 120 mph) $454,000,000

8. Tropical Storm Claudette (Jul 24, 1979, 60 mph) $400,000,000

9. Hurricane Carla (Sep 11, 1961, 145 mph) $400,000,000

10. Hurricane Allen (Aug 09, 1980, 115 mph) $300,000,000

There are several striking things about this list. Nearly half of the events are tropical storms. Most events are recent. The two Galveston hurricanes from 1900 and 1915 are completely absent. It therefore is probably a poor representation of the most costly Texas hurricanes.

What the new Web site does is incorporate data from a 2008 research paper by Roger Pielke Jr. et. al. (see paper) that attempts to project how (taking into account inflation, population growth and increasingly concentrated wealth along the coast) much damage past storms would cause if they made landfall today.

This metric, which is admittedly an estimate, is nonetheless useful to understand the type of risk Texas faces from hurricanes today. By looking at the above list alone, one might conclude that Hurricane Ike is a once-a-century anomaly. But that’s clearly not the case once one considers the list below, a ranking of storms based upon the economic damage they would cause today.

1. Galveston (Sep 08, 1900, 145 mph) $94,060,000,000

2. Galveston (Aug 17, 1915, 130 mph) $75,630,000,000

3. Hurricane Ike (Sep 13, 2008, 110 mph) $20,100,000,000

4. Hurricane Carla (Sep 11, 1961, 145 mph) $17,840,000,000

5. Storm 2 in 1919 (Sep 14, 1919, 115 mph) $13,640,000,000

6. Hurricane Alicia (Aug 18, 1983, 115 mph) $9,290,000,000

7. Tropical Storm Allison (Jun 05, 2001, 60 mph) $8,000,000,000

8. Freeport (Aug 13, 1932, 145 mph) $7,220,000,000

9. Hurricane Celia (Aug 03, 1970, 120 mph) $6,670,000,000

10. Hurricane Beulah (Sep 20, 1967, 120 mph) $4,720,000,000

This tells us that Texas can expect an Ike-like storm every 15 or 20 years, and that twice a century, or so, we might expect something considerably worse, especially if new coastal development continues unabated.

That’s a bit scary and not something I’m sure our Texas lawmakers have taken into account.

Categories: Hurricanes
Eric Berger

18 Responses

  1. Meiczyslaw says:

    Eric –

    I’m not sure I draw the same conclusions from the second set of data that you do. Because of the huge difference between the earliest entries in the table and the later, you might argue that some sort of systemic change occured after 1915. (Maybe even after 1932, given that the two entries between 1915 and 1932 hit less constructed areas.)

    But I’m only arguing that the pattern needs a second look. Given the numbers, it would be foolish to assume I’m right.

  2. Lisa says:

    With all the talk of global warming and its effects on hurricanes, it’s interesting to note that the strongest storms hitting the Texas coast (in terms of wind speed) have not been in the last 30-40 years. Rather, they were earlier in the 20th century. It’s an interesting note and probably inaccurate – you can’t deny the intensity of a storm like Katrina! However, does this mean there is something in the atmosphere is “protecting” the Texas Gulf Coast, or are we due for a major storm in the near future? I thought that Ike was our major storm, but if stronger storms occur twice a century, Ike may have been the practice storm to prepare for the next one.

  3. Mark S. says:

    I never understood why they divide the storms into “deadliest” and “costliest” storms. In my mind, the cost in life should be factored in as well as the cost to property.

  4. Kelsey says:

    I’m a little surprised that Rita didn’t make the list. Granted it did alot of its damage in Lake Charles/Cameron but, the Beaumont area took one on the chin too.

  5. Brian says:

    Ah, once again Hurricane Rita gets overlooked.

    After the 2005 hurricane season, Rita was ranked No. 7. Wilma, Rita and Katrina pushed Allison off the nation’s Top 10 list.

    Hurricane Rita was just about as big and bad as Katrina, only without the New Orleans-style flooding.

    It was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds when it came to shore.

    Give her some props, will ya?

  6. Les D. says:

    The fundamental problem with evaluating the risk of hurricanes is that there are simply not enough of them to be statistically significant. Small differences between the characteristics of different storms or their exact tracks makes an enormous difference in the dollar value of the damage.

    How would this list differ if, for example, Claudette had dumped 42 inches on downtown Houston instead of on Alvin in 1979? Or if Allison had made her second pass fifty miles further east? Or if Rita had come ashore at San Luis Pass, instead of at the Louisiana state line?

    One fact is certain: if rebuilding and new construction continues close to the coast and in flood plains, the chances of new storms surpassing some of the ones on this list grows every year. It’s not the storms that increase the dollar value of the damage, it’s the amount of valuable property close to the coast, or in flood plains.

  7. Funnwithmunn says:

    Folks, the big difference between the Great Storm of 1900 and Hurricane Ike is the number of souls lost. We can be proud, as Texans, the progress that has been made in surviving hurricanes in the last 100 years!

  8. SuzieQ says:


    Both of these comments about Rita bring up a question I have about Hurricane Audrey.

    The storms were so similar in path that the Nat’l Weather Service in Lake Charles actually did a comparison of the two. The eyes of both storms went over my parent’s house and my father took meticulous pictures of the damage from both. My family has lived on that land for over 100 years and has memory of its flora and fauna that all old country people have. The wind destruction from Audrey was minimal compared to the destruction from Rita, yet Audrey was supposed to have been a level 4 storm. Why was there so much more wind damage to the native trees from Rita than Audrey? I sent this question to the Nat’l Weather Service, and their reply was that Audrey’s damage was mostly water damage. Everyone knows that, and it didn’t answer the question I asked. Since the surges from Rita and Ike were actually greater in Cameron Parish than Audrey’s storm surge, it really makes me wonder about the level of Audrey’s intensity on that level as well. (Yes, I understand about Ike.)

    This may seem like a moot question, but in reality, it goes to a much deeper question that some of your older readers will recognize. I would really appreciate anyone who could explain why Audrey is considered a level 4 storm and Rita a level 3.



  9. 2copmom says:

    And we on the upper Texas Coast still “ain’t seen nothing yet.”

    We have been pretty lucky here in Houston over the past 50 years. Hurricane Carla was a category 4, but came in farther down the coast and caused little damage to Houston proper. My family lived in east Houston near downtown in 1961 – they painted the bathroom during the storm, had little loss of power, and went about life as usual after it had passed. My grandmothers in the 2nd Ward did not flood, lose power, or suffer damage in any storm or the great floods.

    Now with urban sprawl and over-development,we will continue to suffer greater damage and inconvenience from big rain events and more serious hurricanes. Can you imagine the area after a direct hit from a 4 or 5? Some homes in our neighborhood are now flooding after heavy rain events, let alone a tropical storm or hurricane.

    Our community and law makers will need to pay serious attention to housing and business developments, encourage serious storm protection and recovery (such as hurricane proof roofs and windows, home installed generators), and a way to protect our infrastructure.

  10. Rodger says:

    The eyes of both Rita and Ike went over our hunting lease in Trinity County. We suffered lots of downed trees in both storms. Seems like Ike was a little worse though.

  11. Eric Berger says:

    For those asking about Rita, yes the storm did tremendous damage to Texas properties. However, the storm technically made landfall in Louisiana, so for the purposes of historical analyses it counts as a Louisiana rather than a Texas storm.


  12. hunter says:

    This list is a good excercise in clear thinking.

    Any of those first 4 storms, any where on the Texas Coast, will be a catastrophe any time it happens.

    with our Coast getting heavily developed from the Sabine to the Rio Grande, tehre are fewer and fewer places that will not suffer greatly from a large storm. We can only hope that evacuation efforts are effective, and that the surge factor is not too much.

    Building codes for the first and second tier coastal counties (seaside and the next inland) need to be desigend to handle much stronger winds and more water. This will, unfortunately, only happen after more storms and financial losses to TWIA.

  13. SuzieQ says:


    You are correct about Rita being considered a La. storm. Cameron Parish undercuts Orange County because the Sabine River and Sabine Lake cause the state line to jog over. In reality, land owned by LA is due south of parts of Texas. I know a lot of people don’t realize this because they haven’t studied a map to see how the coastline actually works. This is why Orange got the eye of the storm but LA is considered the state of landfall.

  14. Brian says:

    Eric, I’m going to have to respectfully disagree with leaving Rita off the list due to some technicality.

    Your blog item is about Texas storm damage, and Rita did billions of dollars in damage in this state, probably second only to Ike.

    Rita did indeed strike Texas in a major way.

  15. gavelrapper says:

    Sci Guy:

    Is it me, or it this a slow start to the hurricane season? So far, no named TD’s, storms, or canes. Seems like in monitoring NOAA that there has only been 1 area of low concern since 6/1.

    Is this a harbinger of a slow season, or is it just too soon to tell?

    Seems like with this heat, the Gulf ought to be pretty ripe come August and September.

  16. Joe says:

    “Rita did indeed strike Texas in a major way.”

    Posted by: Brian

    Yeah..but Washington didn’t have the right voters.

  17. Eric Berger says:



    This is about what you’d expect from a typical hurricane season — you don’t normally get a named storm in the Atlantic basin until the first third of July. First hurricane usually comes in early August. So enjoy the calm, so to speak, before the storm.


  18. gavelrapper says:

    Thanks for your reply. I hope I can wait that long. I am a freaking storm junkie, although I of course root for near misses and no major loss of life or property. Nothing like watching a Cat 5 rolling across the Carribean.

    Just awesome. Anytime we are in the cone, I am apt to feel a little psychotic euphoria, at least until I have to really consider eating that Chef Boyardee, cleaning off my patio, and sweating it with no AC.