

Making sense of primary madness


WASHINGTON -- Florida's Republicans made it official Tuesday, telling party leaders they will hold their presidential primary Jan. 29, even if it means losing half their delegates to the nominating convention.

Democrats, meanwhile, are fighting bitterly over the national party's vote last month to take away Florida's 210 convention delegates because of the early primary -- followed by a decision by the top Democratic candidates not to campaign in Florida or any state that has an unauthorized early primary.

Both national parties set Feb. 5 as the earliest date most states can make their presidential selections. But Florida's Legislature -- wanting the attention that comes from being near the front of the line -- voted virtually unanimously to set the Jan. 29 date.

Q: What happens to my vote?

A: If you're a Republican, your primary vote will help decide which candidate Florida delegates back at the party's nominating convention. For defying its rules, the national party will cut Florida's delegate total to 57, instead of 114. But because all of those delegates will be allotted under a "winner-take-all" rule, it's still a pretty big prize.

By contrast, the Democratic primary will be a "beauty contest." Party officials haven't decided how to select convention delegates.

What happens next for Republicans?

Party leaders, including Florida Sen. Mel Martinez, who is general chairman of the Republican National Committee, have said the rules are clear that states holding unauthorized early primaries would lose half their delegates.

Why aren't state GOP officials worried?

State party Chairman Jim Greer said he has found a loophole. The Jan. 29 vote is binding, but the actual delegates won't be named until later. And if the RNC won't accept that, he said, the eventual nominee can use his influence to make sure all of Florida's delegates are seated.

That loophole sounds big enough to drive a campaign bus through. What does the RNC say about it?

An RNC official reiterated Tuesday that if the Jan. 29 primary vote is binding on delegate selection, Florida will be penalized.

Is it legal for the national parties to yank away Florida's delegates?

Some Democrats have said it runs afoul of voting-rights protections, and two Tampa Bay-area activists have sued. But there are several court decisions that say the DNC and the RNC have the right to decide who is seated at their conventions.

What happens next for Democrats?

They have a three-week appeal period to work out a delegate-selection deal with the DNC.

What kind of deal?

One proposal is a caucus -- actual gatherings of interested Democrats -- after Feb. 5. The national party promises to help pay some of the up to $9 million cost, but the state party still says it is unaffordable. Other possibilities include a delegate-selection convention or voting by mail-in ballot. State party leaders are expected to huddle in Tampa on Friday with a DNC representative to try to reach a compromise.

Any way for Floridians to retaliate?

Jacksonville lawyer Wayne Hogan is among the fundraisers who say they will not raise money for candidates who shun the state. And state Sen. Steve Geller, D-Cooper City, is among those saying he won't work for candidates until the DNC backs down.

"I'm absolutely furious with the DNC," said Geller, who had planned to endorse John Edwards this week. "Why should I help a party that is slapping Florida Democrats in the face?"

Any chance the Florida Legislature will move the primary later?

"No," Gov. Charlie Crist said. "Which I guess means it doesn't have a chance."

Is Florida the only state in this boat?

No. Seven states are expected to file plans with the RNC that include early primaries. One that won't be approved is Michigan's, where Gov. Jennifer Granholm signed a bill Tuesday moving its primary to Jan. 15, which violates both Republican and Democratic rules.

Will the candidates still come to Florida?

Each party's eventual nominee will spend so much time in the state, you'll be sick of them. Florida represents 27 electoral votes and is the nation's largest swing state.

But what about before the primary?

You'll see Republicans. In fact, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be in Orlando on Friday. He and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney each have extensive organizations here, and each has visited a dozen times or more. And the Democrats can campaign until their party's appeal period expires later this month; U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton will be in South Florida next week.

But if there's no compromise, the Democratic candidates have promised voters in New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina -- the DNC-authorized early states -- that they will stay out of Florida and anywhere else with an unauthorized early vote.

What effect will that have?

The Democratic candidates can come to the state only to raise money; they can't even attend next month's state party convention in Orlando. It remains to be seen whether any will try to attract big crowds -- as Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has done elsewhere -- by organizing $15-a-head "fundraisers." But the likely result is to give the eventual Republican nominee a head start in the state.

Any silver linings to this mess?

If no deal is cut, you may be spared a bombardment of nasty political ads -- though Republicans will buy their share.

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