Rising sea a billion-dollar threat

Rising sea a billion-dollar threat

MELBOURNE suburbs will be inundated regularly because of climate-change-driven sea-level rises, threatening billions of dollars in damage to homes and community infrastructure by the end of the century, new projections show.

In the first detailed attempt to study the impact of sea-level rises on low-lying coastal areas, the federal government has released high resolution maps showing which areas will be inundated across parts of the Victorian coast, in an effort to help local government planning. A number of Melbourne bayside suburbs are shown to be under threat even by limited sea-level rises, including Altona and Altona Meadows, St Kilda, Elwood, Aspendale and Chelsea.

How the sea will penetrate inland in Melbourne's west if it rises by 110 centimetres.


View the sea-level rise scenarios here

Popular summer holiday towns such as Point Lonsdale and Barwon Heads will suffer regular inundation, even under limited rises.


The effects of rising sea levels are not limited to coastal areas.

Rising levels will cause flooding along the Maribyrnong River, threatening homes and infrastructure in suburbs such as Footscray and Flemington, including the Flemington racecourse. Along the Yarra River, the Docklands and Yarraville will suffer, with some minor flooding projected in areas further down the river.

The maps show projected inundation for rises of half a metre, which are likely to be unavoidable, 80 centimetres and 1.1 metres by 2100.

The projected inundation combines rising sea levels and king tide events, which could occur many times a year. The maps do not factor in infrastructure such as sea walls, and do not show local impacts such as beach erosion.

Professor Tim Flannery, who sits on the government's Coast and Climate Change Council, said he had been surprised by the significant effects on inland suburbs in all major Australian cities.

Professor Flannery said he hoped the maps - which include projections for low-lying areas in Sydney, Newcastle, Perth, Brisbane and the Gold Coast - would drive a national strategy to co-ordinate Australia's approach in preparing for rising sea levels, including universal planning laws.

''COAG seems to be very clogged at the moment, and it is hard to get things like coastal adaptation up the priority list,'' Professor Flannery said.

''We are hoping these maps will at least begin the national strategy process.''

Bruce Thom, chairman of the Australian Coastal Society, said the next stage of projections will feature localised studies, including the potential damage from flooding events from the land and storm surges from the sea, which he said would show the real risks of rising sea levels.

Climate Change Minister Greg Combet, who launched the maps in Newcastle yesterday, said in a statement that the government recognised ''that coastal areas of Australia are a priority for adaptation action, with many communities vulnerable to impacts such as erosion and sea inundation''.

Last year the federal government released data estimating 247,600 individual buildings valued at $63 billion could be damaged or lost due to sea-level rises.

In Victoria, 45,000 homes - worth $10.3 billion - were estimated to be under threat in the municipalities of Kingston, Hobsons Bay, Greater Geelong, Wellington and Port Phillip.

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