Leadership Style: If You're Going To Be A Jerk, Be One All The Time

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A friend once told me about an old boss he’d worked under for 10 years. “He was my mentor. I learned a lot and worked hard for him. But he was a jerk.”

I told him that must have been awful. “Not really," he replied. "You see, he was always a jerk. So you knew exactly what to expect from him.”

Did my friend admire his boss because he was a full-time jerk?

Crazy as that sounds, research on the power of predictability suggests there’s something to it. And it should influence the way you lead. The point isn’t to be a jerk. It’s that your predictability, or lack of predictability, has a surprising impact on the people who work for you.

The Prediction Engine

Neuroscientists theorize that a key function of the brain – perhaps the key function – is to serve as a “prediction engine.” The mind constantly creates and revises “predictive models” of the world to determine what we should do next. The accuracy of these models can be critical to our happiness and well-being.

Let’s do a little test. What’s the next number in this series?

2   4   6   8   10   ?

The answer is 15.

You guessed 12, didn’t you? Then I told you that’s the wrong answer. Observe your physiological reaction for a moment. Confused? Tense? Angry? That’s your prediction engine in revolt.

The right answer is obviously 12. I lied to you to show how even with something meaningless and trivial like this little test, unpredictability can trigger a powerful negative response.

The “prediction engine” theory explains a lot of real-world behavior: Why we get so angry when others don’t follow the rules. Why we feel anxious when someone is late for an appointment. And why you'd have felt good if I'd told you right off that 12 was the answer to that stupid quiz question.

One of the ways that the brain improves its predictions is through physiological rewards and consequences. Research shows that when a predictive model is accurate, the brain releases chemicals that make us feel good. When the model is wrong, the opposite happens – we feel angry and upset.

It may be difficult to buy the premise that my friend’s brain released feel-good chemicals when his boss acted predictably like a jerk. But it’s not so hard to see why the opposite is true. Imagine you had a boss who always said hello to you in the morning with a big smile. Then one day she marched past you in a huff with no greeting at all. Your prediction engine would throw a rod and secrete feel-bad chemicals. You’d feel distress.

Lab experiments bear this out. Scientists have shown that animals who receive electric shocks on an unpredictable schedule suffer far more anxiety than those who get the same number of shocks on a predictable schedule.

So as a leader how can you harness the power of predictability and help keep your people feeling secure and committed? Here are some guidelines:

Cultivate a consistent temperament. Employees are happiest, and most productive, when they come to a workplace that’s safe and predictable. As a leader, you have tremendous power to give them what they expect and create that safe environment. You also have the power to destroy it. Whatever you do, don’t act like a jerk, feel bad about it, and then go overboard being super nice. Mercurial bosses, for the reasons in the research cited above, are extremely toxic.

Don’t overpredict. Many things in the workplace aren’t predictable. That’s okay; an employee’s prediction engine can factor in a reasonable amount of uncertainty. What’s really corrosive is when you express more certainty than the situation calls for. Most of your people will believe your faulty prediction and feel distress when you’re wrong. If you’re only 70% sure that your new initiative will succeed, just say so.

Don’t oversell positive news. Leaders are sometimes too eager to share good news. “We’ve closed a huge new account,” they’ll announce – but it isn’t quite closed, and it’s not quite clear how huge it will be. It’s more important to be accurate: “We’re one of three finalists for a $600,000 account. We should receive the client’s decision in the next two weeks.”

Don’t hide bad news.  Often bad stuff is happening, everybody knows it, and nobody’s talking about it. Leaders can easily justify communication avoidance because they don’t want to wreck morale. That’s misguided. Morale is already crumbling when you’ve got dozens of prediction engines whirring, buzzing and belching bad chemicals as they try to process the meaning of long faces, clipped comments and closed-door meetings. If you believe the research, you know that employees hate hate hate what they can’t predict. So find a way to tell the truth. It might be painful, but it will reduce uncertainty and stress.

Be careful about “pleasant surprises.” This is an easy trap to fall into because it's so counter-intuitive. How could good news be bad? Imagine you gave an employee an unexpected year-end bonus. They'd be happy, right? In the moment, perhaps. But you just messed with their predictive model. What if they made all sorts of decisions based on not getting a bonus? Bought the 39-inch flat screen when they really wanted the 60. Begrudgingly chose the cheaper day-care center for their child. Cancelled a year-end trip. You've created distress, and may get asked, "Why didn't you just tell me in advance?"

In love and war, surprise is your friend. In leadership, it's better to be predictable and boring.
