


If the first two weeks of World Cup 2018 felt like a rollercoaster ride we were all tall enough to ride, the next two will feel a lot more like a rollercoaster ride that is out of service. 

Everyone will be stressed out and there will be a lot of standing around.

The tension will be even higher, with the win-or-go-home stakes of each match in the knockout stages of the tournament. And it's for precisely that reason, teams will park the proverbial bus and put more emphasis on preventing their opponent from scoring than going out and getting their own goals.

Maybe I'll be wrong. I hope I'm wrong: This World Cup provided great drama in the group stages, even if it was one of the lower-scoring tournaments in recent years. There was Mexico's upset of Germany. There were a few thrilling late-game scrambles by teams hoping to make the next round.

My point here is, if you're picking winners in the knockout stages, you need teams that can defend with a steady hand, control possession in the midfield and find some goals in attack. The ones that do all three of those things will be the favorites, and that's why I like Brazil and Croatia to reach the final on July 15 in Moscow.

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Sign me up for that viewing experience — even if it means having to listen to the Fox Sports broadcasters, who seem to think this is everyone's first time watching soccer, one more time. 

Beyond the fascinating tactical matchup, the final would provide some intriguing storylines. There is, of course, the Brazilian effort to erase the pain of their collapse in 2014 at the World Cup they hosted. There is also the political and historical storyline of a member of the former Yugoslavia playing in the biggest sporting event Russia has ever hosted.

Why do I like those two teams?

Brazil's attackers are so good in small spaces, and the margin for error in the World Cup knockout stages is considerably thinner. While Brazil hasn't been at its very best yet, the variety of speedy, skilled and smart attacking players give Tite's team so many different options. They are talented enough to unlock even the stingiest of defenses.

Croatia's savvy midfield was the key coming into the tournament, and it has lived up to the hype. There were concerns about the Crotians' coach, Zlatko Dalic, and his tactical prowess, and he'll be tested as the Croatians face a gritty, tough-to-score-on Denmark and then either Spain or Russia (read: Spain) in the quarterfinals. But Luka Modric has quietly had the best tournament of anyone, and six different players have scored Croatia's seven goals.

Once there, it's hard to look past Brazil, though I admit I'd be rooting for the Croatians.

Six other bold predictions

1. No round of 16 upsets: In a tournament full of surprises, there doesn't seem to be any matchup where a spunky underdog would give a tense favorite a tough game. We miss you already, Senegal and Nigeria.

2. No Messi-Ronaldo matchup: As much as we all want to see Argentina-Portugal and Lionel Messi-Cristiano Ronaldo, even if the Fox coverage of it would be unbearable — guys, there are other great players at the tournament — I don't see a discombobulated Argentinian team getting past France. Portugal has its hands full with Uruguay, too.

3. Mexico gets blown out: Any other matchup in the opening round, and I'd give the Mexicans a really good shot at making the quarterfinals. Not this one, though. Brazil is the worst team Mexico could face. The 3-0 loss to Sweden should give everyone pause, and Mexico's stunning win over Germany now feels like an eternity ago.

4. France gets it together: Maybe not to the extent that it steamrolls into the semifinals, where I have Brazil topping the French, but I expect them to beat Argentina and Portugal along the way. The central midfield pairing of N'Golo Kante and Paul Pogba is just too good, and I think Kante's ability to snuff out attempts to get Lionel Messi the ball in dangerous areas will be the difference against Argentina.

5. England ... to the semifinals: Football may not entirely make it home, as the English fans somewhat facetiously say, but their speed and quickness in attack can get goals against slower teams and their set-piece threat is real. They can beat Colombia on set pieces and then either Sweden or Switzerland with speed. Croatia in the semifinals is where I see it ending.

Bonus! VAR replay will decide a game: Soccer's new review system has already made its impact at the World Cup, mostly good but some questionable, and there's no doubt it'll pop up again in the next two weeks. Hopefully it's in a deliciously juicy way, like sending Messi or Ronaldo and their teams out of the tournament or something. Just think of the Twitter meltdowns off that.
