There's a greater than 99% chance the 11-2 San Francisco 49ers will make the playoffs this season.

But thanks to a 28-12 Los Angeles Rams win against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night, that percentage chance of making the postseason still isn't 100. (The 49ers would have clinched a playoff berth with a Rams loss.)

So what exactly represents that less than 1% chance? Well...

The 49ers are currently the 1 seed in the conference and lead a loaded NFC West with a 1-game lead on Seattle (10-3) and a 3-game lead on Los Angeles (8-5). The Niners have three games left this season — they host Atlanta this week, host the Rams in a Saturday evening affair next week, and travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks in Week 17.

If San Francisco were to lose all three of those games (which feels not super likely because the Falcons are 4-9) AND the Seahawks beat two of their last three opponents (specifically the 49ers, and either the Panthers or Cardinals) AND the Rams win their next three games (which definitely is a possibility with the Rams finally looking like the 2018 version of the Rams against the Seahawks and two cupcakes ahead — at Cowboys, at 49ers, vs. Cardinals) AND the Packers won two of their next three games (specifically vs Bears and at Lions) AND the Vikings won two of their next three (specifically against the Packers and Bears), then the 49ers would be on the outside looking in. Super simple, right?

Let's start in reverse order here: For this to all happen, the Packers would need to maintain the division lead because, were Green Bay to fall into a potential tie-breaker scenario for a wildcard spot with the 49ers, the Packers would lose out by virtue of the head-to-head. If the Vikings and Packers finished tied and had a 1-1 head-to-head, the next tiebreaker would be win percentage against the division, which the Packers would have by virtue of going undefeated against the Bears and Lions and splitting against the Vikes (Minnesota also lost to the Bears, which would lose them the tiebreaker).

Three losses by the Niners and one by the Vikes would put them in a tie for a wildcard spot that Minnesota would win thanks to fewer losses in the division, which is the second wildcard tiebreaker for two clubs from different divisions that haven't met head-to-head. The Vikings would have losses to Green Bay and the Seahawks, while the 49ers would have losses to the Falcons, the Rams and the Seahawks twice.


The Vikings only lost to the Packers and Bears by 5 and 10 respectively and have won 7 of their last 9 — beating the Packers and Bears doesn't seem that crazy at this point, especially at home.

Now to the Rams. Three Rams wins and three 49ers losses would put them both at 11-5, with a 1-1 season series, putting us back on that level 2 tiebreaker train. LA's in-conference losses would be to the Bucs, Seahawks, and 49ers, while, again, the 49ers would have losses to the Falcons, the Rams and the Seahawks twice. The Rams end of season schedule is especially friendly save that 49ers game on the road, but after what we saw against Seattle Sunday night, it no longer seems impossible.

Seahawks time: a pair of Seahawks wins would keep them out of any tiebreaker scenarios with the Rams or 49ers at 12-4 and give them the division. A win against the Panthers or Cardinals seems like a foregone conclusion, meaning the finale against the 49ers would be for all the Niners-not-making-the-playoffs marbles.

And finally, the 49ers: Losses to the Rams and Seahawks don't seem like impossibilities at this point, but the Falcons game ... well, let's just say the Niners opened as 11-point favorites. Unless this is one of those contests where Julio Jones has 200+ receiving yards and a whole mess of touchdowns with Richard Sherman out, it seems like the wheels on this wild scenario never even get turning.

Still, there's kinda a chance?
