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Expert Voices

Will the Next Cold War Be Powered by Artificial Intelligence?

Abstract image of hacker or criminal wearing a mask and suit, using a laptop and holding a gun.
(Image: © Shutterstock)


As during the Cold War after World War II, nations are developing and building weapons based on advanced technology. During the Cold War, the weapon of choice was nuclear missiles; today it's software, whether its used for attacking computer systems or targets in the real world.

Russian rhetoric about the importance of artificial intelligence is picking up – and with good reason: As artificial intelligence software develops, it will be able to make decisions based on more data, and more quickly, than humans can handle. As someone who researches the use of AI for applications as diverse as drones, self-driving vehicles and cybersecurity, I worry that the world may be entering – or perhaps already in – another cold war, fueled by AI. And I'm not alone.

Modern cold war

Just like the the Cold War in the 1940s and 1950s, each side has reason to fear its opponent gaining a technological upper hand. In a recent meeting at the Strategic Missile Academy near Moscow, Russian President Vladmir Putin suggested that AI may be the way Russia can rebalance the power shift created by the U.S. outspending Russia nearly 10-to-1 on defense each year. Russia's state-sponsored RT media reported AI was "key to Russia beating [the] U.S. in defense."



Both countries have expelled the other's diplomats. Russia has annexed part of Crimea. The Turkey-Syria border war has even been called a "proxy war" between the U.S. and Russia.


A world of cyberconflict




Putin has said he views artificial intelligence as "the future, not only for Russia, but for all humankind." In September 2017, he told students that the nation that "becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world." Putin isn't saying he'll hand over the nuclear launch codes to a computer, though science fiction has portrayed computers launching missiles. He is talking about many other uses for AI.

Use of AI for nuclear weapons control

Threats posed by surprise attacks from ship- and submarine-based nuclear weapons and weapons placed near a country's borders may lead some nations to entrust self-defense tactics – including launching counterattacks – to the rapid decision-making capabilities of an AI system.



AI control of non-nuclear weapons

AI can also be used to control non-nuclear weapons including unmanned vehicles like drones and cyberweapons. Unmanned vehicles must be able to operate while their communications are impaired – which requires onboard AI control. AI control also prevents a group that's being targeted from stopping or preventing a drone attack by destroying its control facility, because control is distributed, both physically and electronically.



The importance of AI development


Countries might agree to a proposed Digital Geneva Convention to limit AI conflict. But that won't stop AI attacks by independent nationalist groups, militias, criminal organizations, terrorists and others – and countries can back out of treaties. It's almost certain, therefore, that someone will turn AI into a weapon – and that everyone else will do so too, even if only out of a desire to be prepared to defend themselves.

With Russia embracing AI, other nations that don't or those that restrict AI development risk becoming unable to compete – economically or militarily – with countries wielding developed AIs. Advanced AIs can create advantage for a nation's businesses, not just its military, and those without AI may be severely disadvantaged. Perhaps most importantly, though, having sophisticated AIs in many countries could provide a deterrent against attacks, as happened with nuclear weapons during the Cold War.

