Why the odds favour a night AFL grand final this year

Why the odds favour a night AFL grand final this year

While the AFL is not committed to a night grand final and there is still doubt about the date and time of footy's finale, circumstances are making it easy for the AFL to fast-track the "inevitable" grand final after dark this year.

The AFL can play the grand final on the evening of Cox Plate day in Melbourne, October 24, or on the night of Derby day a week later, without risking the backlash that would have followed the breaking of tradition in a non-COVID world.

It's much easier to sell the night grand final when that's what both racing and the broadcaster, Channel Seven, would prefer; when the AFL can claim that it is doing the right thing by another sport and a Victorian major event, when it can - with a straight face - say that it is merely "fitting in" with the needs of other parties.

The AFL can paint a move to a night grand final as a change that was forced upon footy, in the exceptional circumstances of a truncated, postponed season.


It would be a self-interested move, too, of course, but one that can be portrayed as accommodating opportunism, not just a grab for ratings and cash.


Here's how the planets have aligned for a grand final after dusk: Assuming the home-and-away season and finals are played without byes or virus-related cessation of play, the grand final would be played on Saturday, October 24.

Racing, as the Moonee Valley Racing Club has put on record, would rather have the Cox Plate meeting during the day and the AFL play the grand final at night.

While Channel Seven haven't as yet made public the broadcaster's wish, this arrangement of racing during the day and grand final after dark should be blatantly beneficial to Seven, given its expected obligations - it is likely to have the rights to all racing, bar Melbourne Cup week, and faces the prospect of a clash of events if the grand final is at the usual 2.30pm time.

The AFL and broadcasters have long assumed that the grand final will rate better in dark than light; hence league boss Gillon McLachlan's assertion that the night or twilight grand final was "inevitable".

Tradition has held off the commercial forces that have pushed nearly every comparable event (though not the FA Cup final) to night, but the COVID-19 world has created new realities.

The most pertinent reality is the massive financial crisis facing not just football and its clubs but the television industry and Seven, which means there is a greater than usual incentive to give the broadcaster a free kick.

The worry about shifting the grand final to evening is that there's no going back and we will never see the game in living daylight again.

The AFL is trying to renegotiate a two-year extension to the broadcast deal with Seven (and Foxtel), on what will be reduced dollars. There are few gestures that would assist Seven more than moving the grand final to the time slot that suits the network's needs. The grand final, thus, serves as a carrot in negotiations.

Or Seven could wield it as a whip, encouraging the AFL to find that little bit extra - a night grand final - in the final furlong of negotiations. Unfortunately for the AFL, there may be no other runner in the (free-to-air) broadcast field if Nine sticks with the NRL.

It is conceivable, as well-placed sources say, that October 24 won't work as a grand final date, because either there's another shutdown or a bye is required to deal with quarantine measures in Western Australia (to allow the West Coast and Fremantle players to have a 14 day break).

In the event that one bye is necessary and there's no other delays, the grand final date would be October 31, Derby day in Melbourne. The Derby - a Channel Ten event - can't work at night, since Flemington has no lights, and the AFL's position is that it will fit in with racing. So, the grand final would move to the evening, let's say 7.20pm, with the pre-game festivities beginning straight after the races.

Can the grand final move to a Sunday and leave racing unimpeded? Well, yes, but that would represent another type of violation of tradition.

For many with traditional leanings - this column included - the worry about shifting the grand final to evening is that, as with most signature reforms, there's no going back and we will never see the game in living daylight again.

The ratings for a night game would shape what happens. If they increase substantially, amid the dire financial climate, the AFL will have 10 million reasons to continue in the dark, a timeslot that could well attract casual viewers in NSW and Queensland.

So, if we get a night grand final, it will be a trial run. One would hope that the move won't be permanent, that it will be a temporary measure, such as crowd-less stands, players living in golf resorts and sitting one-and-a-half metres apart on the interchange bench.

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