Countdown: My 10 Predictions for 2020-2029

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1. The Agility Decade.

This is the decade of 95/5, not 80/20. 95/5 is the sauce behind predictions #8 and #10 above: Frictionless systems run flawlessly… until suddenly they don’t work at all. Google is frictionless and free… until one day the search engine goes down for twelve hours. The electrical grid works perfectly until a substation goes up in flames – and you can’t even pump gas.

This means opportunity landscapes that were long impenetrable will suddenly, without warning, have gaping holes. This is how opportunities will present themselves in 2020-2029. Yawning crevices in the ground after a Richter-9 earthquake.

Your secret to success this decade is YOU maintaining the bandwidth, clarity, space, resources… money in savings or lines of credit… social capital and ingenuity… to innovate a solution when “frictionless” systems suddenly break.

This demands YOU not being so codependent and consumed with feeding the system that your life and career shatter when it breaks.

At least one major platform will experience a catastrophic outage. There will be opportunities only 100 billion dollar corporations can meet – yet also innumerable ten thousand dollar and million dollar opportunities, that ordinary, agile men and women can seize.

There is nothing more numbing or sense-deadening than throwing yourself into activity just because it makes you feel productive. There has never been a time when it was easier to sleepwalk… yet standing watch has never been more urgent. Sleep with one eye open.

This is the decade to think strategically about everything you do… and don’t do. This is the decade to say NO to 80% of what crosses your path… maybe 95%. Most opportunities are fool’s gold.

In 2029 when you look back… ONE thing you said yes to will have made all the difference. The only reason you were able to say YES to the prince was you said NO to 19 frogs.

2. China vs. The West.

20 years ago I would have never imagined the Great Firewall of China would prevail… but it did. China is now the world’s largest surveillance state. In 2018, Marriott employee Roy Jones liked a tweet from a pro-Tibet organization paying Marriott a compliment. Beijing threatened to shut down Marriott in China if they didn’t oust the guy… so Jones was fired.

Free speech isn’t banned just in Hong Kong and Tibet; free speech is banned in hotel chains, the NBA and Hollywood too, because those guys do business in China.

Chinese citizens get automated electronic fines for litter and jaywalking based on facial recognition and the police automatically debit the fine from your bank account. Felons are identified by cameras and apprehended at pop concerts. China issues social media scores for civic behavior, just like in Black Mirror.

When developing countries peg their currency to the Chinese Yuan and buy their electrical grid from China, they get 24/7 state-of-the-art Chinese surveillance as a bonus. This decade will witness greater unrest than just Hong Kong. Watch for a worldwide showdown of values and clash of powers in the new economic warfare.

3. Evolution 2.0 Breakthrough in Cancer / Disease.

10 years ago I predicted the crack of the Darwinian Berlin Wall. The revolution in biology is well underway. This decade, the science profession itself will split, much like the Protestant Reformation of 1517. Old School: Materialists who continue to insist all is brute physical laws. New School: Those who simply accept the obvious, despite our inability to explain it – life has a will of its own and makes up its own rules. This swing is picking up steam and has huge implications for cancer and disease.

Current cancer research is based on the obsolete version of evolution, which denies purpose in nature and dictates that cells are “dumb.” The renegades say cells are smart. Henry Heng of Wayne State University in Detroit discovered that cancer cells, when assaulted with chemo and radiation, switch on massive high speed evolution in real time, rearranging not just genes but entire chromosomes.

Paul Davies at Arizona State says cancer is an ancient cellular reaction to stress, a willful “demon in the machine.” Cancer has been mired in outdated models for 30 years. Medicine based on smart cells will pay big dividends to patients and investors. We will see major leaps treating cancer and pathogens.

4. Pendulum Swing from Secular to Spiritual.

2010 marked the zenith of the New Atheism. Its main method was to pillory all who disagreed. It was so overconfident, uncivil and obnoxious, today some of its leaders deny it existed.

To mention one’s convictions in public has been taboo for some time. Trend is headed the opposite direction. By 2027, ritual and liturgy will be downright fashionable, a refuge from the sterile, contentious digital universe.

5. Uberization of Food.

Now that you can get any imaginable manufactured item from Amazon shipped to you in two days, mass production ceases to be special. This is the decade of live edge wood furniture, gourmet food, craft cheese, organic milk and locally grown everything.

Remember when most American beers tasted like urine? The surge of microbrews changed all that. Same is gonna happen to food.

I interviewed alternate farming expert Joel Salatin and discovered that stifling US food regulations are based on 1906 technology. If you own a cow or goat, you can go to jail for selling milk to your next door neighbor. (Just as Uber and AirBnB were illegal in most cities.) The Uberization of food will spawn new industries and artisanal careers. Watch for the resurgence of local craftsmanship and agriculture. Farming is cool once again.

6. Sorry Ray, No Singularity.

In his 1999 book “The Age of Spiritual Machines,” Ray Kurzweil predicted that by 2029, personal computers would exceed the intelligence of a human being:


The year is 2029. There is a growing discussion about the legal rights of computers and what constitutes being human… The machines will convince us that they are conscious, that they have their own agenda worthy of our respect. They’ll embody human qualities and claim to be human, and we’ll believe them.

He says the “Singularity” will come, where the future becomes impossible to predict because technological advancement moves at such speed. In Kurzweil’s technological rapture story, we upload ourselves onto the internet and live forever in the cloud.

Not only will there be NO singularity this decade, AI will continue to be dumber than a goldfish. No immortality and no spiritual machines. By 2029, Siri will still not be able to convince a 6 year old that she’s homo sapien for more than two minutes. Kurzweil has already kicked the 2029 date down the road to 2045. The can will get kicked again.

Pronouncements about the internet “waking up” and AI becoming self-aware are a brilliant diversion from the fact that every one of these technologies is owned by people who are responsible for what their platforms do.

Garbage In Garbage Out… meanwhile, the painstaking discipline of teaching machines to do our work will remain a well-paid, roll-up-your-sleeves, secure, manual-labor job.

7. 2X More Innovations This Decade.

On January 1, 2010, none of these existed: iPad, Instagram, Snapchat, Apple Maps, GoFundMe, Apple Watch, Facebook Messenger, Candy Crush, WeWork, WeChat, Tinder, Twitch, Siri, Square, Stripe, Slack. In the next decade we’ll see 2X more new apps and technologies as the last.

8. Platforms Catastrophically Break.

One of the Big Four – Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google – will crash. Imagine Gmail going dark for two days. Someone hacks Apple and spews photos to your 400 closest friends. Ukrainians steal 150 million credit card numbers from Amazon.

That’s the day the world wakes up and realizes entire economies are subject to single points of absolute failure with no backups.

This will feed a rising backlash against the “Big Four.” Right now it’s at low simmer… but in this decade it’s gonna boil.

I have a client whose entire category was banned by Amazon – with zero recourse. Financially devastating. Outrage over “Shoot first, ask questions later” has been festering under the radar but this decade it will enter the mainstream. With congressional hearings and dreadful PR black-eyes for lumbering digital bureaucracies.

Memo to Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon: You meet the same people on the way down that you met on the way up.

9. Resurgence of The Trades.

Wanna make 13 bucks an hour at Starbucks? An anthropology diploma at any institute of higher education will win you a barista job. Wanna make 20-40 bucks an hour? Apprentice with a stone mason, bricklayer, electrician, remodeler, concrete finisher or welder. You’ll pull down high 5-figures within the year.

This decade signals the shift from “the smart ones went to college” to “the smart ones skipped college.” If you’re really talented, you’ll make $100,000+ a year in the trades. You’ll get a better education listening to audiobooks and hanging drywall than you’ll get from most humanities departments anyway.

10. Occupy Sallie Mae. A charismatic college grad drenched in debt will stand up and shout: “I’m NOT paying back my student loans. You can repossess my car, evict me from my house, revoke my diploma, throw me in debtors prison… but I’m not paying. EVER. Who’s with me?” When the Mall in Washington DC is jammed with Millennials standing together in solidarity, the dominoes of higher education will fall. All the king’s horses and all the king’s men won’t be able to put Humpty together again.

The art of manipulating 18 year olds into non-dischargeable loans leading to dead-end careers has driven tuition into the stratosphere. Schools and banks are guaranteed their dinero, even if the student never lands a job, even if the degree is in Elizabethan poetry… and not even bankruptcy gets you out of hock.This runaway train WILL crash. The bubble WILL pop… this decade. (Kudos to Ian Utile and Tom Meloche for this.)

A blistering chain of events will follow: 1) Destabilize the US banking system 2) Schools lacking large endowments or state backing will file for bankruptcy 3) Massive real estate buyout opportunity for anyone with cash – and a use for hundreds of acres of land with cavernous buildings.

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77 Comments on “Countdown: My 10 Predictions for 2020-2029”

  1. Peter Zeihan’s geopolitical work is predicting China’s total dismantling in the next decade. They’ve run their entire manufacturing sector at a loss for 35 years strictly hoping to bankrupt the US and eventually raise prices to recoup. Well the shale oil revolution just gave the US total energy independence, meaning the free military protection we’ve been giving the entire planet is going bye-bye. International supply chains don’t just happen. They’re protected by the US military. Not anymore. Couple that with an America first trade policy, tariff war, Hong Kong backlash, and China has a grim decade ahead.

    Regarding School loans, some politicians are talking about garnishing students’ social security! I’m excited to see both mainstream news and universities totally destroyed. The sooner the better

    1. YES Joff. There has been a pendulum swing of AI winters and we’re in for another one. Not in the sense of heavy computation going away, but in the sense of nobody believing the hype about generalized computer based intelligence. Great article.

  2. The world has changed, you don’t know what the new rules are, but you know the old rules no longer apply. This is what a cancer diagnosis feels like. Your canyon analogy is great. A cancer diagnosis\catastrophic illness diagnosis analogy is something many people have lived and can relate to.

  3. Additional prediction for this decade:

    There will be a major shift in psychology, in the models how the human psyche works.
    This will change the way that mental illnesses will be treated, and will have repercussions in other fields.

    This is in the air (for me it feels like a memo is pending but not yet ready to come).

    One problem with current theories that are the basis of psychotherapy is that they are usually not falsifiable, i.e., they are dogmatic belief systems rather than scientific theories. (this has been criticized for decades, actually)
    These belief-systems will turn out to be harmful in several ways. (they are not wrong inside themselves. You need to step out of these belief-systems to recognize their harmfulness.)

    E.g., One of the widespread false beliefs is that the act of unconsciously repeating harmful patterns from childhood would serve a positive purpose.
    e.g.: you allegedly repeat those patterns because you want to recognize something.
    It’ll turn out that repeating harmful patterns is just that: harmful.
    It doesn’t serve any (positive) purpose.
    The belief in a positive purpose is sugarcoating what’s going on.
    That sugarcoating can be dangerous in psychotherapy because some therapists believe that forcing a patient to stay in a harmful pattern would be conducive to healing, by activating the assumed positive purpose of that.
    Actually that’s BS that just creates unnecessary suffering and makes the patient sicker.

    So, we need theories that are falsifiable and that provide a better model of what’s actually going on.

    Some components for new theories are already there
    (all of them created by people working outside of the field of psychology)

    * Theory of aspects (aspectology) and the biblical theory of daemons:

    Aspects are automatized agents in the psyche that were self-created for some reason.
    The act of creation of aspects can be conscious or unconscious.
    Some aspects are useful (e.g. driving a car is mostly automatized after some time of practicing), but others can be “dark”, i.e., the driving force of mental issues.

    This ties in well with the biblical theory of daemons:
    A daemon could actually turn out to be an aspect with the added delusion that it was not self-created.
    But that delusion can turn out to be helpful for healing in some instances.
    (That does not rule out that real daemons could exist, too.)

    Aspectology was delivered by channeling (i.e. basically by a stream of memos).
    So, both of these theories come from spiritual stuff.

    * There is some hidden gem in Sozo:
    It can be helpful for a new theory to find out what makes Sozo actually work.

    * Kolbe test and Perry’s marketing DNA test probably can also provide some hints.

    * Perry’s 30-day reboot, productivity techniques, the work quadrants, etc will also provide some hints. (finding out why this actually works)

    * the role of consciousness is important:
    consciousness could be recognized as something outside of the psyche and outside of the brain,
    but heavily interacting with it.

    * Eastern practices such as Yoga will also provide some clues.
    (finding out what makes them actually work)

    * some mental illnesses will turn out to have a non-mental, medical cause, such as infections, food intolerances, lack of certain vitamins or minerals, etc.
    (that’s an ongoing process that happened in the past, too. We’ll just see more of that)

    * Some insights may come from computer science:
    Computer science may reveal some general principles of information-processing systems.
    These may apply to the brain/psyche, too.
    This will also help to differentiate between consciousness and information-processing and to find out about the interaction of those.

    * There will be a shift of what’s considered healthy and what’s considered mentally ill.
    (Hint: The way the majority operates is not necessarily healthy.)

    This requires a lot of interdisciplinary work.

    This will have repercussions outside the field of psychology:
    * how do we organize and manage work, and who should be employed in which role?
    * marketing
    * physics: What’s the nature of consciousness and how does it interact with matter and energy?
    * spirituality: not sure about the outcome. But understanding the nature of consciousness could create a seismic shift. Some (or all?) religions might not survive that.

    1. Christian Linhart, the positive purpose of going through difficult, repeating childhood patterns is the insight, compassion and understanding one experiences when one finally overcomes them. (You have a “spiritual awakening.”) The growth that ultimately happens makes it all worth it, and the good thing is, you take this growth with you into all your future lifetimes, and this wisdom is available to you in the whisperings of your soul. (This is what I discovered when I went through the process of writing my two books, and what I know is true.)

  4. Regarding #2 and your comments at the end Perry…

    The CIA has a front company called In-Q-Tel which invested in tech companies including Google. If you want to go down this rabbit hole this two part article series covers it:

    And then there is the fact that DARPA canceled their LifeLog project (meant to keep details on everyone) the exact same day that Facebook started.

    Not saying it’s true for sure, but suspicious!

  5. Perry – great set of predictions, and I have high confidence in all of them. I have a couple of my own (to some degree overlapping with yours):
    1) In this decade the current right-wing rulers who seem to be making the running at the moment take a mighty fall;
    2) There will be a major global spiritual re-alignment before 2030.


  6. Of note on #2, it isn’t just technology that enables the social monitoring. There is also the government’s clever ability to leverage human pettiness and greed. They have a “little sister” program where young girls are paid to befriend and spy on their classmates on social media. While the “Great Firewall” can do a lot, it can’t hold a match (pun intended) to the machinations of a “mean girl.”

  7. 2020-2029 100% chance that Perry Marshall’s knowledge and insights are even more valued throughout the world.
    Much gratitude Perry!
    JK in Wisconsin

  8. My prediction for the next decade is increasing levels of civil unrest and possibly a civil war as people start to realize how bad the environmental crisis is. Some may not admit it on a conscious level, but it will be obvious to them nonetheless. There will be more and more eco-shaming as desperation sets in. If the U.S. does not do a 180 degree turn on this issue at the federal level, our position as a world power will only continue to deteriorate. We need to lead on the single most important issue humanity faces right now, and until or unless we can come together as one people in this common cause similar to the way we did in WWII, feelings of hatred, isolation, and polarization will only get worse. If the environment that allows humans to exist and thrive in the first place collapses, NOTHING else will matter. Not education, not the economy, not whether abortion should be legal or not and any number of other issues people distract themselves with to avoid dealing with the threat to humanity itself.

  9. Hi Perry
    Why not all the platforms will fall? I can feel there is something wrong about them.
    I totally agree you can make money without a degree it was a discussion between me and one of my patients yesterday guiding here on how to think and how she can move forward to make money

  10. It always makes me cringe when people talk about the “80/20” principal… and then proceed to talk about “90/10” or “95/5”.


    In the real world, they NEVER add up to 100.

  11. Hi Perry,

    thank you for this enlightening series. Just watched #10.

    I’m from Germany as well and yep:

    the trades are coming back (I have an elite engineering degree from a top university in Germany) – the friends who are experts in some of these trades are making much more money than me. First, they are in demand and they are scarce. Second they get the good deals: especially RE, because they talk to people who own property, DAILY.

    For me, I had the chance to get my degree without any debt. But the trend in Europe will end like the situation in the states already is, only with 5-8 yrs delay. In Europe some state will pay the bill, so anyway, either one will get bankrupt: the former student or the state.

    I doubt China will make it to the top. They are good but not great. USA and Europe work more like 95/5. We know priorities, we can direct ourselves to an extreme degree. The chinese general public is not capable of that because they have the “obedience” in their collective awareness. It’s my opinion I have from working in an international environment with people from all over the world (especially China and US). I believe China will get a rival: Africa. Their population will grow massively and then they will have the situation China had 25-30 yrs ago.

    On chances (#10):

    You talked about the focus or more “non-focus” of people: social media, whatsapp, Job, side business. I thought I could escape this shit forever by doing the following: working my day job and supplementing my side business until I can leave and go wherever I want to (maybe even when it’s necessary.. political breakdown of Europe) etc.

    I did not get your advice in #10 specifically… What do you mean?

    Thank you in advance that you have read my long text. Thank you for your awesome videos. When it’s time (I have a substantial business) I’m looking forward to visiting one of your seminars… Which?

    Best regards

    1. Kai,

      The point of #10 is that you need to 1) reserve MENTAL bandwidth for exploration and space to think – if you are maxxed out, you will miss the nature of opportunities in the 95/5 world. Which are sudden and binary. 2) You need TIME bandwidth where, at the very minimum, there is something you are doing which you can abandon for the better opportunity. You cannot be 100% tied down. Agility and flexibility is your #1 priority in 2020-2029.

      As for seminars, we are doing a TRAFFIC seminar (announcements coming soon) May 27-29 in Chicago. Everybody needs traffic.

  12. Hey Perry

    Have we as a society focused to much on developing systems and not enough on developing people? Think McDonald’s systems run by teenagers. And maybe that’s the trades prediction will come to pass. Historically though haven’t those types of jobs always been done by slaves etc? The end of the book “The Lean Startup ” is very interesting where he talks about the beginning of scientific management

  13. Perry and Bob,

    This has been fantastic… I really appreciate all of your effort and thought here!

    I remember grabbing your Definitive Guide to AdWords back in 2006… And it made a huge difference for me, back before the big slap in 2009 where I lost AdWords, AdSense, and had my YouTube channel to where I couldn’t post any new videos for six months.

    Your advice has always helped me through all of the years… And I probably referred at least a hundred people to take your Marketing DNA Test.
    (it’s something I require out of all of my close business partners)

    I was a part of your 80/20 seminar up in Banff in late 2016 with Tim Francis.

    You had shared your thoughts around Bitcoin, and that’s when I finally made a bigger move in that area. And it really paid off for me over the next year, until…

    You also shared something, that I didn’t follow, and didn’t fully understand until early 2018…

    “Pigs get fed, and hogs get slaughtered.”

    And me being an entrepreneur with a very high risk tolerance… I naturally headed the way of the hog, and I was absolutely slaughtered in 2018.

    So many of your predictions here are in alignment with things I’ve either put a good amount of thought into, or at least I have preached about some of the general principles… And I learned a huge amount from some of the individual examples you provided.

    I agree 100% that the next decade, people being fluid and flexible is of paramount importance.

    All of the above is to say that, I’ve always dug your stuff, and I really appreciate all of the work you poured into the world.

    And I would love to hear some of your specific insight around Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general.

    Thank you for sharing all of this… This is another one of my bookmarked favorites that I will continue to return to.

    PS – your insights above have already given me more confidence… and I’ve been more outspoken the past few days around my beliefs on universities, and preparation for the turbulence and opportunities over coming years.

    1. Jason,

      I don’t have any kind of short-term crystal ball on crypto; but I am comfortable sticking with my previous predictions from about 2 years ago which you can easily find here on the website. I think in the long term it’s inevitable that crypto will catch on, and it will have extraordinary network effect; but right now it’s in a limbo state while everyone is fighting over standards and such. It will follow the 95/5 pattern I’ve described here: The current systems work perfectly until suddenly one day they don’t work AT ALL and suddenly there is a deep earthquake crevice and something new can slide right in there.

      Highly recommended advanced 8020 book:

      This book probably influenced my predictions here more than any other single source of information.

  14. I disagree with number 4. Religion and religious people have been around forever. The greatest change in religious belief according to polls is those who state their religion is none. There is a big difference between religion which is based on dogma and rituals and spirituality which is more about how we live our lives. I predict by the end of the next decade those who claim their religion is none will rise to 40%.

  15. Hi Perry, I am a Hong Konger, and I would like to have your comment on #2.

    You said in the video that it is “Interesting” to see China has such move, now can you please tell me: Is it right/wrong? Do you think this is correct?

    I know that China has to have this in order to maintain the stability of a country. While everything is well “managed”, it keeps people under a “prison” where everyone is being monitored.

    There is a big debate on this in Hong Kong, and apparently HK people did not like this kind of “Prison”.

    Part of the reason why there is a riot in Hong Kong is that, most of the HK people did not believe that there is any “Law and rules” in China, all laws and rules are used to protect the government, not the people.

    Again, I totally understand the reason why China is doing it, but I want to know, from your point of view, is having these kind of surveillance right?

    Thank you.

    1. Please make no mistake – I am VERY unhappy about what China is doing in Hong Kong. And I am dismayed that no one is coming to their defense, not even the NBA.

  16. My prediction: The cure for cancer is discovered and proven, but it’s a tough pill to swallow… because there’s no pill or surgery necessary ;)

  17. Hi, Perry. I love your predictions, but now with #3 you really got my attention, and let me show you something about this.

    I know it will sound weird, and I needed to pay close attention, because first even I wanted to say “this is all bullshit” and this guy is “just another charlatan”.

    But I couldn’t.

    It is German New Medicine founded by Dr. Ryke Geerd Hamer.

    His son was shot by an accident in 1978 and they fought for his life day and night for 4 months. They lost the battle, and his son finally passed away.

    And after 4 months of unspeakable stress he had testiclular cancer. Tehát was his life turning point, when he realized that this cannot be a coincidence.

    And this started a lifelong journey where he dedicated his remaining life to find out WHY and HOW this happened.

    But of course, in order to do this, he had to face with dogma…

    So it started out as a mere curiosity, diving deep down to ancient wisdom and finally he ended up with a well over 10.000(!) strictly, medically correctly documented healing stories. And these were only HIS patients as far as I know, it doesn’t count his followers whose number is growing to this day – risking their practice for the truth.

    Because despite the facts and the enormous work he has done, the medical community – of course… – demonized him, forced him to stop his medical practice and studies, put him in prison for a short time and finally they kicked him out of his own country, Germany. He wasn’t let back to even die there.

    But this wasn’t stopping him.

    His “guilt” was that he mapped out exactly how “bio-logically” and intelligently our body work when it comes to illnesses.

    WHAT it does and WHY.

    And they said he was only a charlatan, despite the countless proof and results he got. They gave a shit.

    And yes, he started out with cancer but 35 years later it was so much more illnesses he figured out how and why does it happen and how can one heal it.

    How? Because he had the humility not to play “I-know-it-all-and-better-than-stupid-nature” but he followed the intelligent patterns.

    Exactly, what you’re always talking about, Perry.

    And of course you don’t have to believe a word I say about this. I just say, please, give it a shot and try to follow this guy’s thought pattern about how he systematically look at the human body with both medical knowledge, ancient wisdom that produced him those countless own, documented results and many, many more of his followers’.

    I’m Hungarian so I know these from Hungarian sources but I know for sure some of his students have English website.

    Hope you find it interesting! And of course, thanks for YOUR work, too! :)

    1. Hi, Perry and Adam Pethes!
      I am a specialist in a methodology called “Bioneuroemoción”, developed by the Spanish psychologist Enric Corbera, who has been based on Dr. Hamer and Claude Sabbah’s Biological Decoding, and many other researchers. It is based on different sciences such as biology, physiology, quantum physics, neurosciences, anthropology, family history, biochemistry, psychology and epigenetics, among other disciplines, with a quantum perspective of the human being, as a Unit. Everything Adam says is real! I check it every day with my clients, both in their physical and emotional health, as in their relationships and in their companies and businesses. I am of Argentine nationality and Accounting professional. I apply this knowledge in corporate, business and personal fields, with extraordinary results. Please, Perry, review this information that Adam so kindly shared, and with which I am aligned and which I check daily.
      Best regards from Argentina.

  18. Perry, your predictions are so wise and profound. For me, #3 particularly resonates. I’ve read Evolution 2.0, and am convinced you are absolutely right: there will be a one-way shift away from conventional medicine, especially slash-poison-burn in cancer care, towards something both intelligent and intuitive that recognises us as more than chunks of cells, flesh, and blood.

    And while I agree that corrupt science, corrupt academia, and corrupt government (everywhere — I’m in the UK) are major obstacles, let’s not overlook the all-pervading global role of Big Pharma which will fight tooth and nail to preserve the drugs-driven status quo — as it is doing right now and has done for decades.

    That said, today’s health (or sickness) model is ultimately completely unsustainable and maybe the wheels will start spinning off sooner than seems immediately possible and in ways we currently can’t quite envisage…

    Thanks for all that you do…

  19. Hi Perry, your predictions for this coming decade are greatly appreciated. So much of your work is wide ranging, insightful, and thought provoking. So, #4, the Pendulum Swing from Secular to Spiritual was unexpected but so consistent with all that you hold close.
    It stirred me to respond about Spiritual Growth. In October of last year my wife, Ann, died of cancer. We had been married for 47 years. Grief and loss are powerful emotions and I have been using journaling as an outlet for my feelings and a reference point to review how I am adjusting to her loss. What follows are some of my journal entries that relate to spiritual living. They were written in conjunction with the 1st anniversary of Ann’s death.
    It is important to stay more connected with the present and less focused on the loss of Ann’s companionship. But, letting go of the “loss connection” feels like I am abandoning the relationship with Ann. I really had to process the feelings because they were so complex.
    I don’t really know what Ann’s experience of her existence is like. I have the belief she is sharing God’s loving existence and has the gift of that perfect love. But, I don’t apprehend the boundless relationship that is our spiritual existence. Physical limitations don’t apply to what Ann has now. And I can only imagine what that might be like through my limited physical understanding.
    I do not need to be anxious about adjusting to her loss being a mutual loss for Ann as well. She is fulfilled at last. And she wants me to be as fulfilled as possible in this life. Being separate in our feelings in our relationship is still alien. Our relationship has always been a shared “real time” experience that impacted us equally. And now that has changed in ways that are unevenly distributed. She has gone to where I cannot immediately follow or participate.
    Does she love me – yes. Is she aware of me – yes. Does she need me – no. Do I love her – yes. Am I aware of her – yes. Do I need her – no. Do I miss her – absolutely. Does she miss me – I don’t believe so. God’s infinite love provides a complete satisfaction of relatedness to Him and all of His creation; there is no void that is unmet. This is very different from what Ann and I shared together.
    Now the agreement level between what I think and what I feel isn’t reinforcing each part. There is a gap because of the unknowable aspects of life after death. I know she is loved and is loving. I know she is fulfilled. But, I don’t have the physical cues to help me understand what that is like for her. So, despite my faith and belief, I still have uneasiness. All of my life long experiences of love and connectedness have involved physical understanding. That is the limitation of living. But I also know that love and connectedness is a gift from God to draw us to the spiritual level of existence. So I dry my tears of separation, express my love to God and Ann, and continue my life’s journey.
    I had some lonely moments and a little resignation that memories were all that I had left of my relationship with Ann. I was feeling sad and alone. And then I realized I still had hope. Our physical relationship has ended but we still have a relationship. I still have hope we will be together again and will be present to each other as a part of our spiritual transition from life to death. It is my trust in the faith that was passed down to us through the millennia that is able to lift my sadness. I am grateful for this gift.
    There is nothing in the secular world that gives meaning to life. It cannot answer the most important question “Why Am I Alive”. It doesn’t answer that question; and tries to avoid the question of what happens after death.
    I sincerely hope that your prediction of an increased pursuit of Spiritual living is completely accurate. It is so desperately needed.

    1. Steve,

      Thank you for your honest and forthright and brave sharing of your heart. That takes courage.

      You are walking this hard road in a most healthy way. And you will be able to help many others.

    2. Hi Steve!
      I dare to recommend a book, which helped me a lot when, almost 7 years ago, my son died.
      The book is called “Dying to be me” by Anita Moorjani. There are also videos on youtube. I hope it serves you. Receive a big hug from Argentina!
      Thank you, Perry, for providing this space!

  20. Joel Salatin! I discovered him about 7 or 8 year ago. I’m glad to see he is growing his platform and message.

    Thanks for sharing your platform with Joel, Perry! It’s great to see you leveraging your influence to uncover hidden gems like Joel to a broader audience.

  21. 10: probable, a US only problem. Why not solve the problem before it becomes so terrible? I never understood the concept of an elite university anyways. I think I had 15k of student loans 25 years ago. Much more manageable.
    9: yup, already there in Germany.
    8: not going to happen. No, it happens all the time but people simply wait until the stuff is online again. If you want one of the big fours to fail then people must really hate that company.
    7: Do you count Slack as innovation? Really.
    6: yup. That means no really good self-driving cars either. At least for those who aren’t suicidal.
    5: maybe, it would be good.
    4: just no. That feels so American. Here in Europe things are so much more secular. I want to see more dioceses declaring bankruptcy. I want religion to just go away.

    1. I agree that Europe is different w.r.t religion than America.
      It is important to differentiate between religion and spiritual.

      In Europe we’ll probably see a rise of spirituality, but without religion. (at least without the traditional religions)
      It could be more inspired by eastern spirituality (e.g. India), or by stuff like channeled messages (New Age and others).

      W.r.t traditional religions, in Europe it is a pretty hard sell to make people believe anything, especially treating the contents of a book as the holy ultimate truth.

      Experience-based spirituality matches better: It is not about believing but about experiencing and seeking. (which matches some types of Indian spirituality pretty well.)
      The prerequisite for seeking is to accept that “I don’t know” instead of “I believe”.
      I guess that “I don’t know” matches current European mentality a lot better than “I believe”.

      Apart from that, the escape from the sterile online world could also be done by being in nature, visiting good restaurants, meeting with friends face to face etc.
      I see that trend already emerging.

  22. Regards the Uberization of Food, in the U.K. we didn’t go as far down the crap beer route as the USA. Beer was always made by a number of large manufacturers AND some microbreweries. Though the number of small breweries dipped for a while they then recovered when many of us refused to drink mass produced beer. 8-9 years ago I did a project on microbreweries and identified over 1000 at that time. Since then the number have grown.

    As for local food we produce more varieties of cheese than the French and local provenience is very important. Pubs for example like to show which local farms their meat and veg come from. Ideally within the same village.

    1. Europe is WAY ahead of the US in the local business of food. (What that a strange thing to find myself saying, in the big picture of how food has always worked since the dawn of civilization)

      1. The US seems to have had a preference for mass production in both factories and on farms eg feed lots.

        Our farms are much smaller and our history goes back further. Both encourage small scale local food production and wanting to know where our food comes from. However we also lead the world in robotic grain harvesting, micro-veg, urban farming etc.

  23. I serve on a local Workforce Development Board. In regards to the trades they are desperate for workers. Our school systems have really emphasized going to college and have left out the trades as an option.

    Right now many of the trades here in Colorado will give you a job and pay you and pay for your education and your apprenticeship. You can become a journeyman electrician with zero dollars out of your pocket and get paid good money while you do it and can have a long career making 6 figures.

    There has to be some education of parents that this is a viable option instead of college and all the cost of tuition.

  24. Totally agree about 9 (the trades) – AI and ML can’t touch this.

    Also about #10 (the bond-slave category that applies to student debt is immoral) it’s not because I’m a student but because the western world is going to have to rethink capitalism and what business is really for in the grand adventure we call life. We need a new Adam Smith. My money is on Mark Blyth with the help of Jordan Peterson to bust the thing wide open and to come up with a new compelling human manifesto for a more a more socially inspired capital-liberating system that doesn’t just funnel 99% of the rewards to a handful of people who feel self justified in their excessive accumulation. The game as we have understood it is going to have to change or it will lead us into a revolution. And as Mark says “the Hamptons“ are not a defendable position.

    One crash or wobble that I would add to this list is the revolt against online retail giants who think it’s smarter to assume the worst of their employees (controlling how long they are allowed for a pee) than inspire them to be their very best. Perhaps if they gamified the work they would have less problems with people feeling desperate to find other ways to beat the man.

  25. I’d like to add my prediction for the new decade. I’m pretty sure that there will be a big BANG in the field of “green energy”. All the electric cars and photovoltaics may be given as an example when you need to explain the meaning of a “market bubble”, “pyramid” or a “soft-scam”. Technology claiming that is nature-friendly, environment-friendly and “green” may be actually considered such ONLY without the context. In the context of the producing, storing and recycling of the batteries for the electric cars or photovoltaics this technology isn’t any nature-friendly at all. This is going to be some kind of mix of Enron + prediction #10 and #8. Anyway, the “fireworks” will be memorable.

    1. Solar power in Australia is just now reaching the point where they’ll pay you money NOT to produce more power, ie the cost of energy is negative during peak sunlight. An inflection point for sure.

  26. I’ve been thinking of #8 too. I know it’s coming, and when it does I’ll take a well-deserved digital detox and meet people IRL.

    If you want cheap education, come study in India. If you want even cheaper education, do an online course.

  27. Regarding the Internet Giants, there is a development in Internet Infrastructure that may also reduce their power:
    The bandwidth of Internet connections to homes and small offices has risen to a level where it is quite feasible to run servers at home and at the office. Normal webhosters haven’t kept pace with that. They still have 100Mbit or max 1GBit for a server. While in my case I have 300/30Mbit at the office and 40/10 Mbit at home. With fiber of one provider already in the house (but not connected) and fiber of another provider 100 Meters away.

    And: hardware that’s usable a servers is getting real cheap. Just don’t use something that is sold as “server” :-)
    I recently have bought two new servers for EUR 235 each. They are tiny, make no noise and use only a little amount of power.

    I don’t know how this will turn out, but it could lead to a more decentralized Internet. Maybe larger websites could be run by a swarm of servers located at homes of people, organized similarly to Uber etc. (If security issues can be solved)

    Many businesses will run their webservers in their office: Lower cost, more control and less danger of intellectual property theft by webhosters /AWS etc.

  28. Thank you some much Perry for these videos. I particularly like the one about trade jobs coming back .!!!

  29. George Gilder believes the same on #8…in his book “Life After Google”…that Internet Security is a joke/elephant in the room and that Blockchain or it’s derivative/improvement will be the answer…

  30. From outside of the US, I wonder what will be the worldwide reverberations when the university cost / student loan bubble will burst in the US?
    I am located in Austria / European Union.
    Our universities are traditionally paid by the government, but they recently introduced some (smallish) fees to be paid by students. (Though depending on politics they might decide to do a loan-financed model like in the US.)
    We also have privately owned universities. I don’t know the cost for students, but they are probably substantial.

    My guess is that a burst of the bubble in the US will prevent our politicians to copy the US model. (Hopefully the bubble will burst soon enough!)

    Another concern is that this could repeat the worldwide effect of the 2008 crisis.

  31. I totally agree with prediction # 8. This scenario is going to happen for sure. I’ve been thinking about it almost every day. The point is, to be prepared for the day X. Nice shot, Perry. Just in the Bull’s EYE.

  32. I think Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, YouTube…
    … they’ll all be swallowed by something bigger, greedier and altogether unholier

  33. I have been thinking about automation, and another dimension to your #9 is that I think there will be a revival in demand for unique, hand crafted products and individual services provided by actual humans. The fact that they are not as perfect as those provided by machines will be part of the draw.

    Automation will kill many jobs, but also create many more products and services at lower prices than ever before. With the money saved through automation driving down prices, people will be looking for something different, something unique. Whereas the modern 50s and 60s glorified products made by machines, the next decade will see the rise of “Made by humans” being a real cachet.

  34. The killer combination – in my experience (I have 300 contractors as clients) is an engineering education/mindset (doesn’t have to be a degree) *and* a trade. If you are a contractor with an engineering mindset, you will systemise your business and marketing and do phenomenally well.

  35. 100% agree on #9. Seems that there is an image problem with the trades these days. Our young folks think these people don’t make good money. Just wait until they have to get plumbing or HVAC work done. At $100/hr or more it might sink in.

    1. Shortage in the trades is REAL. As a generation completely fades out into retirement age there’s still a huge gap to fill in the US. Good times to be alive.

  36. Yup, agree on 9 and 10. Seeing lots of young people starting their working life with £50k debt from Uni fees. As a parent, I still find it disgraceful that MPs who had the benefit of free Uni were able to inflict this on future generations.
    But so many of these young people would have been much better off doing an apprenticeship in a trade. Companies in the UK pay for many of the apprenticeships and many can get grants to help. No personal debt is incurred by the individual. Local companies are crying out for quality youngsters who are willing to learn. But, currently, it’s not seen as a very sexy option.

  37. My all-seeing eye gazing into my well polished crystal ball sees… you are 100% correct. Now, back to checking the biggest 2020 future Lotto Jackpot winning numbers once more…

  38. The reason the feedback loop is broken is that the government is the ultimate enforcer and the ultimate guarantor of these loans. As happened in the previous financial crash, Wall Street has found a way (through regulatory capture) to privatize profits and socialize loss.

    The real question is not if the bubble will burst, but whether the government will continue to agree to take the role of mafia enforcer against tens of millions of voters, and whether to allow Wall Street to socialize the losses of the collapse — or to let them hang out to dry this time Since the S&L crisis, the banks have always bet on the government intervening to save them, but the mood is changing (see the rise of Bernie and Warren), and the capcity of the country to continue with these ever-larger bailouts is decreasing, so I agree that the time is ripe for a major rupture in both the education and financial worlds.

      1. Perry, the interesting question is what will replace the current system after the dust of the crash settles.

  39. Yes, schools are out of control expensive all over the country now and have been for years, but was anybody ever forced to take a student loan? Was anyone ever FORCED to go to an expensive college that they could not afford? Problem is that, much like the mortgage loan bubble, people are taking on loans they cannot necessarily afford with the hope that they WILL be able to afford the loan in the future. It’s not the loan company’s fault for providing student loans, it’s the families who allow their kids to take the loans with no intention of paying them back. Why would you take a loan if you aren’t committed to paying it back? Also, student loans are completely forgiving in that they allow loan recipients to press the PAUSE button should they run into financial hardship like losing a job etc. Try asking your automotive loan bank or mortgage company to pause your payment for a few months till you get back into a steady job. I think the focus is on the wrong institution here. It needs to be on the colleges themselves and why their costs are so out of control…. Similar to our healthcare system with costs that are outrageously out of control we need to get a handle on costs first.

    1. Steve, I agree with you; the underlying issue here, though, is that this is an entire vast system without a feedback loop. It’s like a heater running full blast with no thermostat. And what I didn’t mention is the TERROR most students have which is that if they don’t get on this train, they will be utterly left behind by society, so they don’t believe they have much of a choice.

      In most cases, 18 years of conditioning program them to go to university and a little concern about finances in the admissions process isn’t going to slow that down.

      The point is that the government absolutely guaranteeing the institutions their money is that universities systemically do not have any real consequences for unsuccessful grads but instead have to compete with all other institutions who have the same incentives.

      When you are 18 and you see how cool of a place the campus is, it’s easy to convince yourself that paying off the loans someday won’t be all that hard, especially with your cushy high-paying job and status as a Wellesly Grad.

      Therefore, in order to recruit new students they HAVE to build better dorms, better cafeterias, better student centers. It’s inflation. Now they have to hire enough administration to become the nanny state that $50,000 a year implies the students should get. Because in the end the best sales pitch and the most lavish experience wins the recruitment game. Not the best education or the best long-term outcome.

  40. I think in the future we’ll look back on the past 30 years or so and wonder why on earth we thought it acceptable to saddle young people with such debt just as they begin to navigate the challenges of adulthood. Very much looking forward to seeing this chaos unleashed.

  41. 10. Occupy Sallie Mae
    Great observation and will happen, no doubt.
    Would add that in the US we have the propensity to push out the inevitable. So between the charismatic lad showing up (or while she gathers strength) someone will find a way to ‘insure’ the debt compounding the issue for a future date (did someone say derivatives?) . Can’t wait to hear the remaining predictions from Perry. Hopefully he is wrong on some of the more negatively biased, else we are looking at a monster recession in 2030, which is my own prediction that i am preparing for. I’ll be so bold to say that anybody not taking the steps to determine your own faith will be obliterated in what is coming.

  42. Students COULD default on repaying, and obtain class action status to sue the colleges and the government AND the banks for fraudently inducing them to sign a note(s) for tens of thousands of dollars that can NEVER be repaid by a person who graduates in sociology, for example, and tries to amortize their cumulative debt on the average salary of a sociology major. Even the ‘highly honorable credit card companies index their extension of credit decisions somewhat on theoretical earnings of the borrower. YOUR idea is probably the right prediction. Mine takes too much work and thought.

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