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Volume: 03 Issue: 03 | Mar-2014, Available @ 165

Twinkle Tayal
, Prema KV

M.Tech 2
HOD, CSE, FET, Mody University of Science and Technology, Rajasthan, India

A tsunami can be referred to series of water waves initiated by the dislocation of a large quantity of water, usually in ocean or a large
lake. Tsunamis obliterate not only human population but all other species. There are many factors that have potential to cause a
tsunami like Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other underwater explosions (including explosions of underwater nuclear devices),
landslides, meteorite impacts and other disturbances above or below water. With the preface of modern science and computer
technology, the field of Artificial Intelligence is screening a definite efficacy in all continuum of life. There are certain ways to predict
such disasters and design different kinds of early warning systems. These can be predicted on the basis of climatic conditions and
several other parameters. One such concept that is working as a boom in the fields of environmental science and policy is fuzzy logic.
As fuzzy logic can be widely stated as working with the vague, imprecise data and the linguistic terms. So, this methodology can be
successfully applied in the field of tsunami warning as the influence of different parameters that cause tsunami is different and can be
said as vague. In this work, a fuzzy system has been developed to declare the occurrence of tsunami in terms of linguistic parameters
rare_tsunami, advisory_tsunami and warning by taking the tsunami characteristics earthquake magnitude, volcanic eruption index,
landslide and height of waves in deep ocean. Fuzzy rule base is generated and the results are compared with an IEEE research paper.

Keywords: tsunami, tsunami warning system, design of tsunami warning system, Fuzzy logic, tsunami early warning
Tsunami is a Japanese word with the English interpretation,
harbor wave. It is represented by two characters, the first
character, "tsu," which means harbor, and the second one,
"nami" which means wave. A tsunami is a very long-
wavelength wave of water which is generated by abrupt or
sudden displacement of the seafloor or intrusion in the
standing water. Tsunami is sometimes called as seismic sea
waves by the scientific community and tidal waves by the
local public. Tsunami waves are different from the normal sea
waves in a way that the wavelength of tsunami is very long.
Originally they look like a briskly rising tide, and due to this
reason they are termed as tidal waves [1]. Though the impact
of tsunamis is limited to coastal areas, their devastating power
can be enormous and they can affect the entire ocean basins.
There are several many recorded tsunamis in the history that
caused destruction and were very ruinous. In addition to the
appalling human loss of life and damage to habitations and
infrastructure, the environment can be ruined by the impact of
the access of salt water into the agricultural lands. The
vegetation can be also badly influenced by the physical force
of the waves, and the depth of the resultant flooding as the
waves diminished [2]. There are several researches going on
to predict this natural hazard, so that, people can be warned
before. The effect of the natural hazard cant be minimized,
but, if people warned earlier, it is possible to save many lives.
Several methods and algorithms are being used to predict the
tsunami. On such method that can be used is fuzzy logic.
The compelling reason for selection of fuzzy logic model in
this study is the natural fuzziness in the nature of tsunami and
the difference of influence of different causes of tsunami.

In 1965, L.A. Zadeh laid the fundamentals of fuzzy set theory
[3] as a method to deal with the imprecision of practical
systems. Bellman and Zadeh write that Much of the decision
making in the real world takes place in an environment in
which the goals, the constraints and the consequences of
possible actions are not known precisely [4]. This
imprecision or fuzziness is the staple of fuzzy sets or
fuzzy logic applications. Fuzzy sets were anticipated as a
generalization of standard set theory. Partially as result of this
fact, fuzzy logic remained the preview of highly specialized
and mathematical journals for many years [5]. The concept
and application of fuzzy logic is becoming a tool of the
essence in dealing the issues of environmental science and
policy. Its becoming a general practice to deal with the
linguistic terms. Fuzzy logic intention is to model human
thinking and reasoning and to relate the model to problems
according to the needs. When human solves problems, he
generally creates verbal rules such as if <event realized> is
this, the <result> is that". Fuzzy logic tries to acquire these

Volume: 03 Issue: 03 | Mar-2014, Available @ 166
verbal rules and the ability to make decisions of humans to
machines/computers. It uses verbal variables and linguistic
terms along with verbal rules. Verbal rules and terms used in
human decision-making process are fuzzy inspite of precise.
Acquiring human logic system to computers/machines will
strengthen problem-solving ability of computers/machines.
Verbal terms and variables are expressed mathematically as
membership degrees and membership functions. Fuzzy
decision-making mechanisms use symbolic verbal phrases
rather than using numeric values. Transferring these symbolic
verbal phrases to computers is based on mathematics. This
mathematical basis is nothing but fuzzy logic. Systems that
use fuzzy logic are alternatives to the difficulty of
mathematical modelling of complex non-linear problems and
fuzzy logic meets mathematical modelling requirement of a
system and can produce effective results based on indefinite
verbal knowledge as humans. In fuzzy logic, information is
verbal phrases or can say linguistic terms such as big, small,
very, few etc. inspite of using numeric values. If a systems
behaviour can be expressed by rules or requires very complex
non-linear processes, fuzzy logic approach can be applied in
that system [6].

2.1 Mamdanis Fuzzy Inference Method
Mamdani's fuzzy inference method is the most widely seen
fuzzy methodology. It was among the first control systems
built using fuzzy set theory. It was proposed in 1975 by
Ebrahim Mamdani as an effort to control a steam engine and
boiler combination by synthesizing a set of linguistic control
rules achieved from skilled human operators. Mamdani's
attempt was based on Lotfi Zadeh's 1973 paper on fuzzy
algorithms for complex systems and decision processes.
Mamdani-type inference anticipates the output membership
functions to be fuzzy sets. After performing the aggregation
defuzzification. It can be build by using either command line
functions or with the graphical user interface (GUI) present in
the Matlab. In this study, we are using the Mamdani method
for the undeniable reasons as it is spontaneous, commonly
used, widely accepted and it is suited to system requiring
human intervention. In the present study, system is developed
by using the GUI tools, which basically consists of five editors
to build, edit and view the system, as shown in figure 1,
Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) Editor it is used for
handling the high-level issues for the system like
number of input and output variables and their
Membership Function Editor- it is used for defining
the shapes of all the membership functions associated
with each variable.
Rule Editor- it is used to edit the list of rules that
defines the behavior of the system.
Rule Viewer- it is used to view the fuzzy inference
diagram. It is used to see which rules are active, or
how individual membership function shapes
influence the results.
Surface Viewer it is used to view the dependency of
one of the outputs on any one or two of the inputs. It
generates and plots an output surface map for the
system [7].

Fig 1: GUI editors in Mamdani fuzzy method [7]


Fig-2: Causes of Tsunami [8]

As shown in figure 2, most of the oceanic tsunamis (up to 75%
of all historical cases) are generated by shallow-focus
earthquakes competent of transferring enough energy to the
overlying water column. The rest is divided between the
landslide (7%), volcanic (5%) and meteorological (2%)
tsunamis. Up to 10% of all the reported historical run-ups still
have unidentified sources. Some recent studies show that in
fact the fraction of tsunamigenic event where slide-generation
mechanism was indulged can be much higher (up to 30% of
all cases) [8].


Volume: 03 Issue: 03 | Mar-2014, Available @ 167
As discussed above, major causes of tsunami are earthquakes,
volcanic eruptions and landslides. So, in prediction or early
warning system, these can be used as the parameters. So, here
in this study along with these 3 parameters one more
parameter, i.e. height of water waves in the deep ocean is

4.1 Parameters Used
Basically, as according to the geologists the different causes of
tsunami cant be put into a specific range for whole world.
The tsunami event triggers according to the place and the
according environmental conditions. But based on the
historical data of tsunami, the data ranges of the different
parameters can be evaluated. In the present study, the ranges
are evaluated from the actual existing historical database and
the information of tsunami provided by the organizations like
NOAA pacific tsunami warning centre, Japan meteorological
agency, UNESCO international tsunami information centre,
Wikipedia, Indian tsunami agency. All these parameters will
be treated as inputs in the fuzzy logic system that will be
designed by the help of fuzzy logic toolbox of Matlab. These
parameters can be defined as follows-
Earthquake- A series of vibrations or movements in
the earth's crust. Earthquakes that occur besides the
coastlines or anywhere underneath the oceans can
cause tsunami. The size of the tsunami is usually
depends on the size of the earthquake, with larger
earthquakes generates larger tsunami. It is measured
in Richter scale.
Landslides- Landslides moving into oceans, bays, or
lakes can also cause tsunami. Most such landslides
are generated by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions.
Volcanic eruption- Volcanoes that occur along
coastal zones, like in Japan and island arcs
throughout the world, can cause several impacts that
can become a reason of a tsunami. Explosive
eruptions can speedily emplace pyroclastic flows into
the water, landslides and debris avalanches generated
by eruptions can rapidly move into water, and
collapse of volcanoes to form calderas can suddenly
displace the water. Measured in VEI (Volcanic
Explosivity Index) which varies from 0 to 8.
Height of waves in deep ocean- height of tsunami
waves in Deep Ocean is very less, not more than
4meters due to decreases level of potential energy.
The height of waves keeps on increasing as waves
reach at the shore [9].

Fuzzy system for tsunami warning system can be designed by
applying following procedure in the Matlab Fuzzy Logic
Inspect the problem to be solved and select the input
and output variables. In this study, input variables
used are magnitude of earthquake, volcanic eruption,
landslide and height of waves and output variable
used is alert_type.
Deciding the fuzzy inference rules. This generally
depends on human experience and trial-and-error.
The interference rule is selected based on the degree
of match and the results of the standards by the
organizations like NOAA pacific tsunami warning
centre, Japan meteorological agency, UNESCO
international tsunami information centre, Wikipedia,
Indian tsunami agency. The values are rounded off to
fit linguistic terms.
Fuzzy membership functions for all the inputs and
the output. Fuzziness in a fuzzy set is illustrated by
its membership functions. It distinguishes the element
in the set, if it is discrete or continuous. This includes
determining the position, shape as well as overlap
between the adjacent membership function, as these
are major factors in determining the performance of
the fuzzy logic. In defining membership function,
different geometric shapes such as triangular,
trapezoidal, or curved etc are used. The selection
depends upon the ones knowledge and
understanding of the process. In this study, we are
considering trapezoidal membership function as it is
most commonly used shape and moreover, it is best
describing the current problem.
Performing fuzzy inference based on the inference
method. Smoothness of the final control surface is
determined by the inference and defuzzification
Choose a defuzzification method. Defuzzification
means the fuzzy to crisp conversions. As the output
through the fuzzy system is also fuzzy. So, it needs to
be converted into a crisp value to use it practically.
Different methods are used for defuzzifying the fuzzy
output functions, like, Centroid method, weighted
average method, Centre of sums, Centre of largest
area and so on. Most commonly used method is
centroid method, which is being used in this study.

Precisely, a fuzzy decision is the outcome of weighing the
facts and its importance in the same way that humans make
decisions. Fuzzy logic imitates human like thinking where the
human can figure out an imprecise inference from a collection
of imprecise premises [7].

5.1 Input/ Output Membership Functions
There are 4 inputs in this system. Each input is described by
using the different membership functions such as low,
moderate and extreme as according to their ranges. The output
alert_type is described by the membership functions
rare_alert, advisory_alert and warning_alert. The output of

Volume: 03 Issue: 03 | Mar-2014, Available @ 168
system will be rare_alert if no tsunami is likely to occur,
advisory_alert if there may be chances of tsunami in near
future and warning_alert if tsunami is definite and can be
destructive. These functions represent a degree of a binary
value, 1 being the highest and 0 being the lowest. All the
inputs and output are described by using trapezoidal
membership function. It will create uniformity in the system.
All the membership functions are shown in the following

Fig-3: Fuzzy Model for tsunami warning system

Based on the information gathered, the ranges to be used as
the membership values in the fuzzy system can collectively be
described in the table 1 below which are used in defining the
membership functions.

Table 1: Ranges of Different Input

Using these ranges, the tsunami alert type can be predicted.
Also, the output membership values used in the fuzzy system
is 12-point scale of tsunami intensity was proposed in 2001 by
Gerassimos Papadopoulos and Fumihiko Imamura. The
tsunami scale is arranged according to a tsunami's effects on
humans (a), effects on objects including boats (b), and damage
to buildings (c) [10]. Based on these 12 points, the output
membership values are grouped as follows-
Rare tsunami alert- 0-7
Advisory tsunami alert-7-10
Major Tsunami warning- 10-12

If rare is the alert output from the system then, there is nothing
to worry about. Tsunami will not occur.

If advisory is the alert, then tsunami may happen. General
people are advised to be in contact with the local organizations
and keep on hearing news.

If warning is the output, definite tsunami will be there.
General public is warned about the danger and advised to
move from the area. The situation can be devastating and

The membership functions of inputs and output are as shown
in figures

Fig-4: Membership Function for input earthquake.

Fig- 5: Membership Function for input volcanic_eruption

Parameter Value
Earthquake 0 to 6.3 -> low
6.4 to 8 -> moderate
8.1 to 9.9 -> extreme
Volcanic eruption 0 to 0.8 ->
0.9 to 4 -> explosive
4.1 to 7.9 ->
Landslide 0 to 2.9 -> low
3 to 7 -> moderate
7.1 to 9.9 -> extreme
Height of waves in deep
0 to 3.9 -> dangerous
4 to 7.1 ->
7.2 to 10 -> normal

Volume: 03 Issue: 03 | Mar-2014, Available @ 169

Fig-6: Membership Function for input height_in_deep_ocean

Fig-7: Membership Function for input landslide

Fig-8: Membership Function for output alert_type

5.2 Fuzzy Rules
Fuzzy rules play the most important part in the fuzzy system.
These rules can be decided on the basis of ones knowledge or
understanding. As here, we are using the standardized data for
all the inputs; fuzzy rules are dependent on them. The fuzzy
rules basically are in the form of IF x then y. In the Matlab
Fuzzy Logic Toolbox, there is a rule editor to enter the rules
and edit them if required. 83 rules are used for the current
water quality estimator. The rule editor for our quality
estimator is shown in the figure 9.There are three formats in
which rules can be entered in the rule editor, that are either
verbose, which is being used in the current study, or symbolic
or indexed [7]. A rule is defined in the following way:

1. If (earthquake_mag is extreme) and (volcaniceruption is
non_explosive) and (height_in_deep"_water is tsunami) and
(landslide is low) then (output1 is warning_alert)

Fig-9: Rule Editor for Tsunami Warning System

5.3 Simulations
We have conducted a number of experiments by entering the
different values of the inputs and every time the system is
giving correct output as it was assumed according to our
acquired knowledge and information according to historical
databases. Rule viewer is used to enter your inputs and see
how each and every rule is behaving on your given input.
Finally, it gives one defuzzified crisp output based on the
method you had used. We are using centroid method in the
current study. For example, when we take input as [4 0.5 8 1].
According to us, the output should be rare_alert as all the
inputs are in the range when there is no possibility of tsunami.
When simulated from the system we have designed, the results
are coming to be as, shown in figure 10.

Fig-10: Rule Viewer for input described above

Volume: 03 Issue: 03 | Mar-2014, Available @ 170
Defuzzified value comes out to be 3.63, which is under the
rare_alert range. Surface viewer is also used to show the
output behavior with respect to the inputs. Basically, it works
well for 2 input and 1 output system. As number of inputs
increased, any two inputs can be selected as x and y axis and
the output can be mapped accordingly. Here, in the present
study as there are 4 inputs so according to the different inputs
on x and y axis, output alert_type can be mapped as shown in
the following figures below

Fig-11: Surface viewer with earthquake and volcanic_eruption
as inputs

Fig-12: Surface viewer with volcanic_eruption and landslide
as inputs

Fig-13: Surface viewer with volcanic_eruption and
height_in_deep_ocean as inputs
On conducting a number of experiments with different data
sets, each time we are getting the correct output. As when we
input the data as described above the result should be that alert
will be rare_alert. When applied, we are crisp output value as
3.63, which is under the range of rare. So, the result according
to the fuzzy model is also that alert will be rare_alert, no
tsunami is likely to occur. In the same way, for different inputs
we are getting correct results as expected.

We have compared our work with the work in the IEEE
research paper Cherian, Carathedathu Mathew, Nivethitha
Jayaraj, and S. Ganesh Vaidyanathan, "Artificially Intelligent
Tsunami Early Warning System." In Computer Modeling and
Simulation (UKSim), 2010 12th International Conference on,
pp. 39-44. IEEE, 2010 [11]. In this paper, they have taken
only 2 parameters, but we have taken 4 number of inputs as
along with the earthquake, landslides and volcanic eruptions
are also causes tsunami in the several regions and many major
and devastating tsunamis due to volcanic eruptions and
landslides have recorded in the past. They had also
implemented the problem in the Matlab Fuzzy Logic Toolbox
as we have. We have taken standardized data according to the
well known authorities NOAA pacific tsunami warning centre,
Japan meteorological agency, UNESCO international tsunami
information centre, Wikipedia, Indian tsunami agency and
defined our membership functions for each input according to
the standard ranges. As they had taken 2 inputs, they are
using 12 rules to describe the system whereas we are using 83
rules to describe the system,. We have uniformity in our
system as we have described all the inputs by the trapezoidal
membership functions. They had divided the different
parameters into various no. of ranges, like for output they are
using 5 sets, where as we are taking 3 sets namely rare,
advisory and warning, which is more realistic situation and
easy to understand. Moreover, when compared with this
existing system, our system is found to be more capable and is
giving better results.

Fuzzy logic provides an alternative to represent linguistic and
subjective aspects of the real world in computing. The
intention behind the selection of fuzzy logic model in this
study is that system uses fuzzy logic model conveys valuable
and real results depending on the uncertain, vague, indecisive
and imprecise verbal knowledge just like logic of a human
being. Moreover, it takes long time to use the other methods
for such problem and by using fuzzy we can reach a general
solution by doing only limited number of experiments.
Mamdani has been designed in this study. The prediction
scheme presented here can be considered as a step towards
this natural hazard tsunami which results in destruction on a
high level. This can successfully be applied by taking other
parameters into consideration and moreover, in this study
general data has been evaluated from the historical database,

Volume: 03 Issue: 03 | Mar-2014, Available @ 171
this system can work more efficiently if data for a particular
area is used.

[3]. L.A. Zadeh, Fuzzy Sets, in Information and Control,
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[4]. R. E. Bellman and L. A. Zadeh, Decision-making a fuzzy
environment, Management Science, vol. 17, pp. 141-
[5]. K. Tomsovic and M.Y.Chow, Tutorial on Fuzzy Logic
Applications in Power Systems IEEE-PES winter meeting,
Singapore, 2000
[6]. Poongodi, M., Manjula, L., Pradeepkumar, S. and
Umadevi, M.(Dec 2011), Cancer prediction technique using
fuzzy logic, International journal of Current Research, Vol. 3,
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[7]. systems-
[10]. Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A., and Fumihiko Imamura.
"A proposal for a new tsunami intensity scale." ITS 2001
Proceedings. No. 5-1. 2001.
[11]. Cherian, Carathedathu Mathew, Nivethitha Jayaraj, and
S. Ganesh Vaidyanathan. Artificially Intelligent Tsunami
Early Warning System. In Computer Modeling and
Simulation (UKSim), 2010 12th Interntional Conference on,
pp. 39-44.IEEE, 2010

Twinkle Tayal, student of, 2
CSE, Mody University of Science and
Technology. Till now published 3 papers in
international journals.

Dr. Prema KV, Head of Department, CSE,
FET, Mody University of Science and
Technology. Till now has published 17
journal papers and 37 conference papers.
Earlier guided 2 PhD and an AICTE(2006-
2009) project and currently guiding 6 PhD