Dr. Samuel B. Hoff is George Washington Distinguished Professor for the Delaware State Society of the Cincinnati and professor emeritus of history and political science at Delaware State University. He is a nine-time independent candidate for president.

With more than a year to go before the 2020 presidential election, there are pundits and polls aplenty alerting us as to momentary trends. However, the result of the upcoming election may turn on the influence of more persistent features of the American political system.  

There have only been two times in U.S. history when three consecutive presidents were reelected to second terms: 1800-1824, when Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe served two terms each; and most recently between 1992-2016, when Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama were successfully re-elected.

If Donald Trump is reelected in 2020, he will literally make presidential history. 

More from Dr. Hoff:

Rethinking the Constitution: On some issues, the Founders might have wanted a do-over

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However, long-term historical catalysts may intervene to prevent that outcome, including the constitutional background of presidential terms, the George Washington

precedent, political party changes, and the recurrence of certain national issues.

The fact that the Constitution imbues the presidency with perpetual reelection capability is largely due to the impact of Alexander Hamilton at the Constitutional Convention, as all plans except his called for a single term for the president. But even so, the short term provided was a check on executive aggrandizement, the area of government most feared at the time.

The Framers of the Constitution may have corrected the lack of an executive, which existed in the Articles of Confederation, but they were not going to create the conditions which would allow the type of abuses committed by colonial governors. In some ways, structural bias against long terms for the president remains.

As the first president under the Constitution, George Washington's length of service would set an important precedent, one which would be followed for the next 150 years. Washington was more than content to step down after one term, but reluctantly served a second term.

Not until the period of the Great Depression and World War II, when Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected four times, did the two-term tradition end. But, not coincidentally, Republicans used a period of congressional control two years after FDR's death to propose a constitutional amendment limiting the chief executive to two terms; the 22nd Amendment was ratified four years later.

Probably only two presidents since that time could even think about a third term if permitted, whereas some presidents were defeated for reelection.

Washington reminded us of the destructive impact of factions — his word for political parties —in his farewell address. In assessing the end of the first period in which three successive presidents served two terms each, there was clearly instability in the political party system that developed after Washington's time.

For instance, the Federalists were critically weakened after the War of 1812 and would reemerge in 1828 as the National Republicans. Alternately, the disputed 1824 election led to the establishment of the Democrat party, led by Andrew Jackson, in 1828.

In the contemporary environment, there appears to be potential for division within the Republican party which could foster an independent Trump party. Clearly, there is still residue from the Tea Party insurgency.

As if the analogy between 1824 and 2020 did not have enough similarities, we can note that the issues in the former campaign included tariffs and internal improvements, and that the candidates were favored by sections of the country.

Of course, the 1824 election also saw the controversy with the Electoral College, whereby the candidate with fewer popular votes — John Quincy Adams — nonetheless won the White House. Given that we have witnessed two related controversies involving the Electoral College over the last five presidential elections, there may be a type

of exhaustion for that sort of drama. 

That Donald Trump has been able to command the presidential office while never reaching a majority of public support is amazing. But the early line for his reelection in 2020 is not good.

Whether the American public opts for the same or change, there are long-term factors to consider along with Trump's performance and who he is running against.

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