Paul Costanzo: Predicting the College Football Playoff no easy task

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College football is less than a week away, which means it's time for me to predict (probably incorrectly) who will play for the national title, and how Michigan and Michigan State will do this season.

The real fun part this year is that the College Football Playoff is starting, so that means I have four chances to embarrass myself.

Why the negative tone to start the season? Because I'm having a real hard time figuring out who will be the four teams left standing when the season ends.

For one, we don't know the exact criteria the selection committee is going to use to pick these teams. I can predict with some certainty that there will be a team that gets in that we're all angry about, and several teams that do not that we're all angry about. There will be anger.

But any time college football appears to be straightforward, it takes a weird turn (Braxton Miller's injury was an awful turn that it's already taken). So while I want to just put Florida State and Alabama in two of the spots and sort out the rest, I have a sinking feeling something will happen to prevent that from happening.

With that being said, I'm going to pick Florida State and Alabama as the first two of my four, because I'm not dumb, and they're both really, really good.

My other two are Oklahoma and Wisconsin. The Sooners were too impressive to ignore down the stretch last year, and their toughest game — Baylor — is at home. Wisconsin is my outside the top 10 team that I figure will sneak in. The Badgers play LSU in Week 1, which could completely throw me off right away, but then have a very favorable schedule the rest of the way. But the way I see it, LSU is a team you're going to want to catch early on, because once those younger players figure it all out, they're going to be a bit of a monster. And because of its win against LSU, Wisconsin's profile will only get stronger.

Michigan State was a team I considered, but having to go to Oregon, and having to do it in Week 2 makes me think they'll come up short. There's something about the way that Oregon team operates early in the season, before it has any real bumps and bruises, that would frighten me if I'm an MSU fan.

After that, I think the Spartans run the table to the Big Ten title game, as their three biggest games are at home (Nebraska, Michigan and Ohio State). As you may have gathered, I'm then predicting a Wisconsin win against Michigan State in said title game. Wisconsin should be the freshest major conference team in America in November, which will be the difference.

Michigan should be strong defensively, but until I see something resembling a Division I offensive line, I have trouble predicting big things for the Wolverines. A road win that matters under Brady Hoke would also help.

I don't want to say I'd be shocked, but I would be mildly surprised if Michigan won any of its big three road games (Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State). The other nine games are firmly in the winnable or should win categories, though, so nine wins isn't out of the question.

The question would then become, how do Michigan fans respond to a 9-3 season with losses in your three biggest games?


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