March quarter earnings (3Q16) for Microsoft(MSFT)

MSFT reported earnings for its fiscal third (=March) quarter after the close yesterday.

My takeaways:

–the company had a good quarter for its future-oriented cloud and mobility businesses during a period where the legacy PC business was unusually weak.  In the latter arena, MSFT did substantially better than the market.

–the strength of the dollar continues to be a drag

–income tax.  Geographically, the US has been stronger than expected, emerging markets weaker.  One result of this development is that MSFT has adjusted its estimate for the corporate tax rate for the full year from 19% to 21%.  The full revision for the first nine months was made in the 3Q income statement, boosting the March quarter tax rate to 24% (this is normal accounting procedure).  That clipped $.04 from what eps would otherwise have been.

–company guidance for upcoming quarters is being revised down somewhat, in a justifiably cautious way.  The dollar is one issue.  But the bigger headache seems to me to be weakness in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, where lots of transactional (as opposed to long-term contract) business takes place and where tax rates are lower.

–today’s selloff appears overdone to me.  That’s partly the way markets move nowadays, reacting violently to headline news.  It’s also partly because MSFT had been up by 35% over the past year in a market that has been basically flat over the same time span.

–I’m not tempted to transact.  I see no reason to sell the shares I own.  If anything, I’d be a buyer below $50.  But I see no reason to rush.


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