Commentary: Why immigrants are flocking to caravans

Haitian migrants wade across the Rio Grande Sept. 19. This most recent caravan underscores the urgency for comprehensive immigration reform.


Felix Marquez /Associated Press

Today it is common to read about migrant caravans forming in Central America and then traversing Mexico en route to the U.S.-Mexico border. These caravans are, however, a very recent phenomenon, having first emerged during the fall of 2018 as the border-crossing strategy of many Central American migrants changed.

Historically, unlawful immigration across the U.S.-Mexico border followed a standard model. Often with the help of smugglers (“coyotes”), migrants would as surreptitiously and stealthily as possible cross the border and make their way to the closest large urban centers, such as San Diego, Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Antonio and Houston, where they were guaranteed relative anonymity and safety from law enforcement. They then would either stay in these locales or head to their final destination elsewhere in the United States.

Today, many migrants, especially those from Mexico and those with criminal records, still follow this well-trodden path. However, a growing number of migrants, especially from the Central American Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, and most recently Haiti, have adopted a different immigration strategy.

Instead of attempting to cross the Mexico-U.S. border undetected, these migrants actively seek out U.S. Customs and Border Protection, or CBP, officials to whom they surrender and request asylum.

Guatemalans, Hondurans and Salvadorans continue to migrate to the United States in large numbers. While pull factors in the United States and push factors in their homelands both play a role in their migration decisions, the latter are most salient. Conditions that drive these Central Americans to migrate include neighborhoods infested with vicious criminal gangs; some of the highest murder rates in the world; corrupt and abusive police officers; weak rule of law; feckless and corrupt political institutions; and endemic poverty.

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Under the former model of unlawful migration, a premium was placed on stealth and secrecy. Under this new model, there is no such concern for either, since the migrant plans to immediately surrender to CBP officers. Their goal is to initiate the process of seeking asylum in the United States.

The asylum process, for those immigrants who are able to cross the first asylum hurdle, will on average take one to two years before the case is finally adjudicated in the United States’ overburdened immigration court system. And the migrants’ hope is that while their case is moving through the asylum process at a glacial pace, they will be able to legally live and work in the United States, potentially establishing roots that will allow them to remain even if their asylum request is denied.

Migrant caravans are a product of this new immigration paradigm under which many immigrants are no longer concerned about being on the CBP’s radar. These caravans are generally organized via social media, often at the initiative of criminal elements who profit from the caravans. Since 2018, dozens of other caravans have formed in Central America with the goal of reaching the United States, and, most recently, caravans have included large numbers of Haitians.

Once migrants make the decision to pursue asylum immediately upon arrival in the United States, opting to travel in a caravan is appealing for three main reasons.

First, by joining a caravan, migrants are able to substantially reduce the amount they would otherwise pay to smugglers to assist them either alone or in a small group.

Second, migrants benefit from the safety of a large and visibly organized group. Migrants traveling from Central America to the United States have to run a gantlet of organized criminal gangs, corrupt police and random thugs, and during their trip they are constantly at risk of murder, rape, kidnapping, robbery and extortion. While traveling in a caravan does not eliminate these threats, it does reduce them considerably.

Third, by traveling in a caravan, migrants get on the radar of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance on their journey through Mexico. These nonprofits provide food and water, and, at times, secure shelter.

The rate of formation and success of caravans in reaching the U.S.-Mexico border depends in part on the attitude of the Mexican government. When the Mexican government turns either a blind or supportive eye to the caravans, they form with greater frequency and generally reach their destination successfully. When, however, the Mexican authorities, normally at the request or demand of the U.S. government, either block the caravans at the Mexico-Guatemala border or break them up during their trip through Mexico, the caravans form with lesser frequency and most often do not reach their destination.

In the case of the recent Haitian migrants, initially the Mexican government allowed the medium-size caravans to pass through the country unfettered on their way to the normally sedate border town of Ciudad Acuña across from Del Rio.

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However, due to the humanitarian and public relations crisis for the Biden administration created by the arrival of more than 10,000 Haitian immigrants in Del Rio, the Mexican authorities have once again begun to make the passage of caravans through Mexican territory more difficult, suggesting that, at least in the short term, we should expect to see a steep decline in their number.

That said, as soon as the Haitian migration crisis disappears from the front page, the U.S. pressure on the Mexican government will weaken, and, once again caravans will form in Central America and depart for the United States.

This reality underscores the continuing need for comprehensive immigration reform in the United States, reform that would simultaneously provide for a secure border but also a humane, equitable and expeditious processing and adjudication of asylum claims.

Mark P. Jones is the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies and Baker Institute Political Science Fellow, Rice University.