Regional Economic Voting in Romania

by Jula, Dorin and Jula, Nicolae Marius
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
, 2009, volume 10 issue 1, 5-15

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In the paper we examine the economic voting theory for the Romanian local elections in June, 2008. Econometrically, we demonstrate that in the regional structures the main economic variables (dynamics of the gross domestic product per capita, rate of unemployment, dynamics of the average net nominal monthly earnings, etc.) do not significantly influence the voting behaviour, so that a model based on the esponsibility
hypothesis is not adequate for explaining the creation of voting preferences in the Romanian regional structures in the June 2008 elections. We also demonstrate that for the June 2008 local elections the hypothesis of partisan voting cannot be econometrically supported. As a consequence, we have conceived a political impact model. Therefore, we have tested the hypothesis of faithful voters between two consecutive electoral moments, the engine role played by the well-known leaders, and the impact of the ethnic behaviour on the electoral space of the political party.

Keywords: Political Business Cycles, Vote Popularity Function, Partisan and/or Opportunistic Behaviour, Residuals in Regional Econometric Models
JEL Classification:
C31, C33, D72, O18