Thursday, April 16, 2020

Doing the Math: Covid 19, the Power of One Transmission

(courtesy of the CDC)
Donald Trump is anxious to get the country up and running. He has created a task force to do this.Together this group is being guided by business leaders. And then there is Dr. Fauci somewhere in the mix.

In the past month when questioned, Donald Trump has stated that "we have done the most testing than any other country in the world." He has also stated in press briefings over the course of the Covid 19 pandemic that in the US anyone who wants a test can get a test." Both of those statements have been false from the time Trump uttered them until today. I have asked those on the front line (friends and relatives) about testing and who gets the tests. They tell me you have to manifest 4 symptoms and be in a high risk category for age or co-morbidities. New York has conducted the most tests anywhere in the world. Tests are very hard to come by.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump, does little to scale up testing in the billions to test 1) for Covid 19 positives, 2)for antibodies of the recovered 3)for asyomptomatics. There is no contact tracing to speak of. And reports are coming out on MSNBC that less than 1% of the population has been tested and in fact the testing is decreasing. There isn't even an accurate number of test results in many states like Florida because there is a backlog for results to be given. (see article-click here) And Governor Ron De Santis knows how the death and Covid 19 numbers upset Trump. After all, this virus is supposed to be done, by God. Fewer numbers mean we can re-open the economy.

(L to R): DOJ William Barr, Donald Trump
Trump doesn't get the math. He failed school after school a function of his ADHD or learning disabilities. In those days, no help was given. It explains his insistence on his being a "stable genius," or saying he gets the science of the virus. No he doesn't. If he did, he would have shut down the country in January, geared up the testing in every state and did contact tracing. Math and Covid 19s structure, function and hunger to replicate in a host to the point where it will morph to continue to replicate? Nah. It will be easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for Trump to understand the math of Covid's communicability.

Thank God Governor Cuomo and now the other governors in the surrounding states with the help of experts get the mathematics of Covid. One infected person with the severest strain infects 3 people who each infect 3 people: that total is nine. Those 9 people each infect 3 people which is 27 people. Those 27 people infect 3 people each, which is 81 people on a bad day. Thus, with 4 transmissions 81 people are infected and the multiplication continues if these individuals are asymptomatics. Soon the numbers even if the transmissions are not three but two are in the millions. Such is the power of one transmission.

Crowds are the heaven of Covid 19. Cities are more problematic with the density; perhaps. The disease is telling us it isn't city vs. rural area; it is more complex. Even in a rural area for example, a church which has 100 parishioners the disease is a problem when one person has it and transmits. Those folks who get it go home to infect their families and friends. So the lie that Fox and the president would spread that only cities have the problem is criminal and negligent.

(courtesy of Fox)
The problem is the human being. You want to stop Covid 19?  Eliminate humanity's liability to become infected. That means strengthen one's immune system or effect substances that nullify its replication, reducing human liability to catch it. Short of a vaccine there is only one way to stop the death and limit the spread.

Just on the math alone, quarantine is an imperative. We cannot afford people dying in the streets unable to get into packed hospitals for help. If and when we return to work, there must be a way to reduce transmissions to zero; that means temperature taking, three types of testing, contact tracing, masks, gloves, etc. at the work place and getting to and from the workplace. Governor Cuomo has laid out the ground rules to which types of work might open: essential work, guarantees there is no spread. Governor Cuomo and the governor consortium get the math.

NY Governor Andrew Cuomo (courtesy of the website)
We have a registered 320,000,000 Americans who are potential carrier terrorists or victims. We have tested over 3 million Americans. By the numbers which are imperfect to interpretation a supposed 80 percent have recovered. The rest have died. But because we are so behind the 8 ball, these numbers are probably inaccurate and are just approximations. We just don't know who had it and what happened. The only ones we know of went to the hospital or were tested positive or negative.

 Problems arise with more questions. What about the rest of the untested population, the other 99%? If they are tested one day and then get it three weeks later, what then? Can the ones who have "recovered" get it again as the disease morphs and changes to adapt to survive in its hosts? We don't understand the disease, its spread, its MO. We don't understand completely who gets it or how they spread it. The uncertainties are as exponential as the disease spread.

CDC molecular view of Covid 19
Getting an economy up and running so billionaires can make money is lovely. If they want to be on the front lines to do this, then they need to put up billions in investments and not expect handouts from poor Americans. Trickle down does not work. Besides, they already got millions in tax breaks with Trump's tax reform. What did they do with that money? AND THEY WANT MORE????

 They need to press Trump to operationalize the DPA on a massive scale. He must produce manufacturers in this nation who can produce massive equipment for the battle this is going to take to get workers in places free from Covid 19 with the right supplies.

(courtesy of the website)
Trump, you are the president of job creation and returning manufacturing to Americans? Well, Trump DO IT. HERE'S YOUR CHANCE WITH THE DPA. Produce supplies, tests, chemicals-reagents for the tests, masks, gloves, etc to help workers feel safe returning to work. Have the billionaire corporations guarantee healthcare for their workers... if their employees do get it, they will be covered and taken care of for risking their lives.

Business people like Trump must be generous in this time. They must not expect to just have the American taxpayers throw money into the abyss of their companies. We need guarantees to make a percentage of the profit the companies make with this "bail out." We don't want to "bail out" businesses when they mishandle or ill use what we have given them. Better to let them go bankrupt. They can afford it. Small businesses can't. Save the small businesses and give the states money to save AMERICAN WORKERS SO THEY CAN WORK FOR THESE CORPORATIONS.

There must be accountability and guarantees and the corporations must kick in billions to get billions. There is no free ride for the dead. There is no free ride for small businesses. There is no trickle down anymore when death is standing behind the worker who the corporation intends to shove out onto the floor of their business to do the work for an ill paying job with no benefits. It will get to a point if they have to choose getting this horrible disease and starving, they will eat less and less. Corporations and the wealthy have to do much more or their own lifestyles and lives will be at stake. It will be interesting to see if they value their lives beyond their material wealth, after all. The poor are used to being poor. The wealthy are not. When they lose their material wealth, will they have the strength to face it? See the quote about the rich man and the camel.

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