Russia's growth potential post-COVID-19

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Title: Russia's growth potential post-COVID-19
Author: Korhonen, Iikka
Organization: Bank of Finland
Department / Unit: Suomen Pankin nousevien talouksien tutkimuslaitos (BOFIT)
Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT)
Series: BOFIT Policy Brief
Series number: 9/2021
Year of publication: 2021
Publication date: 1.7.2021
Pages: 13
Subject (yso): talouskasvu; bruttokansantuote; tuottavuus
Keywords: Bofit-kokoelma; COVID-19; Venäjä
Abstract: This paper updates my earlier calculations on Russia’s long-run growth potential using a standard growth accounting framework in which GDP growth depends on available labor, capital and efficiency in combining them, i.e. total factor productivity. Russia’s economy has grown relatively slowly during the past decade, partly because of declining labor force. In my revised framework, growth recovers after the negative COVID-19 shock, but remains subdued as the working-age population continues to dwindle. Productivity growth remains lower than in the early 2000s, while average GDP growth settles at approximately 1.5% p.a.
Table of contents: Abstract .....3 1. Introduction and summary of results .....4 2. Recent developments in the Russian economy .....4 3. Long-run growth .....7 4. Concluding remarks .....10 References .....11

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