The Peak Oil Musical Chairs™ Calculator

The Peak Oil Musical Chairs™ Calculator


                The Peak Oil Musical Chairs™ Calculator (POMCC) is a discovery tool based on the Peak Oil Musical Chairs™ hypothesis (POMC).  The calculator is used to work out the answer to if oil reserves world-wide will last sufficiently long enough to sustain today’s 2015 world, with all its massive hydrocarbons needs, for decades to come, but not any future growth in consumption over 2013 levels - which should be reconciled with, by taking forcefully some consumers off-oil, then, what size that off-oil population would be over time?       

Any Evidence The Hypothesis Might Be Real?

  • Since the 1980’s Iraq-Iran war, tens and hundreds of millions of people have been taken off of oil for periods of time, or permanently, in never-ending wars, violence, genocide, depopulation and domestic energy depravation in primary oil production regions; mainly the Middle East and Africa.
  • Relentless non-conventional oil & gas exploration trends world-wide in spite of being environmentally unproven, fast depleting and strongly community resisted.
  • All above are potential evidence that oil is already peaking critically but supplies are massaged by the number of people taken off of oil ‘silently’, therefore the hypothesis might be actually valid.

How The Calculator Is Programmed?

  • Average yearly growth in oil consumption worldwide between 1980 and 2013 was 1.27%, which is considered the baseline for growth in the next 10 years (2015-2025)
  • In 2015, that growth can be roughly quantified as being 1,157,861 barrels per day over the amount of daily oil consumed in 2014.
  • The other baseline is the Oil Consumption Per Capita (OCPC).
  • Dividing the amount of growth by OCPC will produce the size of off-oil population necessary to reconcile against that growth.
  • As OCPC varies between oil producing nations, the calculator spreads the potential off-oil population across all nations included in the pool, each relevant to its own level of OCPC.
  • The calculator is programmed to allow researchers:
    • Widening or shrinking the pool of nations subject to POMC.
    • If the entire population of a nation is less in size than the required off-oil quota, the calculator depicts the missing over number.
    • To ascertain the size accumulation of off-oil population over years.

POMCC Best Usage: Who To Take Off of Oil First?

                Naturally, the best consumers to be taken off of oil first are most likely to be those who are the powerless living upstream near traditional fossil fuel export-dedicated production wells.

Why Upstream First?

                Consuming increasing volumes of fossil fuel supplies upstream, near production wells, is disruptive as it concentrates the productivity, generation of wealth, economic and population growth locally, closer to the well driving even more domestic oil consumption and preventing a wider base of beneficiaries from enjoying a share of that concentration when supplies move from one territory to another, worldwide – Globalisation.

Why such a tiny growth of 1.27% annually might prove significant and requires many millions people taken off of oil every year?

                By 2022 the compound increase of this insignificant growth percentage will require a new source of oil supplies in the magnitude of Saudi Arabia’s 2015 daily production level (9,683,702) to be added to the fossil fuel world energy market. As that new easy find is unlikely, according to many studies, POMC hypothesis is born.

What is the best method for enforcing off-oil?

                Taking a population off of oil by peaceful means of geopolitical division, like southern Iraq’s independence causing the rest of the population of the country becoming off-oil, breaking Saudi Arabia or Sudan off of their oil-rich provinces, de-rooting a significant portion of the entire Syrian nation to energy-less refugee camps, or by pre-industrialisation of nations (reference to the US Secretary of State James Baker’s vow in 1990 to “reduce Iraq to a pre-industrial age”); wouldn’t prevent an off-oil population, largely composed of those under-20 years of age majority, from quickly recovering, retrying and successfully securing domestically some of their national oil supplies for their own consumption at a later stage  (Nigeria’s continuous oil pipes looting, is an example), which hugely jeopardizes necessary off-oil future-pending quotas. Therefore, culling Rwanda-style, Iran-Iraq 1980s war-style, American 1990s sanctions against Iraq-style, US 2003 invasion of Iraq-style, Syria 2011 Arab Spring-style or any other yet to be seen new depopulation technique; might be considered the most effective method to sustain a lasting off-oil reality.

Who May Benefit From POMCC?

  • POMC-affected populations
    • The tool may indirectly encourage the general consciousness to relate fossil fuel consumption to genocide inspiring a voluntary reduction of oil consumption sparing the culling of millions of innocent lives.
    • It will greatly help in drawing lines between peak-oil economic necessities from religious, strategic, scientific, experimental, futuristic, ideological, environmental, geopolitical or racial genocide rituals and campaigns, which might be playing out in the assumed POMC trend even stronger than the peak-oil curve itself.
  • Recreational Industry
    • Operating for-the-masses new reality TV-type digital online games and for-profit sport betting inspired by ever-increasing imminent daily number of deaths, linking to their images, and scenes of those being killed, streaming on screens live; is likely to become a new type of trade that makes significant financial returns, even comparable to that of the Las Vegas’ gambling industry, but also encourages a wide awareness and sympathy in other parts of the world toward societies and communities falling victims to POMC, which may, again, lead to a voluntary reduction of oil consumption,  indirectly bringing the global self-balancing system to rethink, revise and reduce depopulation quotas.
  • Financial Markets
    • If the hypothesis comes true, and that many people really need to be culled, it is such an awful waste dead bodies having perished for the sake of peak-oil only, going merely unnoticed, therefore;
    • War Crimes Compensations-Backed Securities (WCCBS), theorised by the same author as this hypothesis, might become one of many potential financial main-stream instruments possibly utilised to allow newly synthesized money supplies transverse to struggling (or what is left of) remotely located POMC-hit communities, in the form of family and personal compensations and social assistance programmes,  and then back into the wealth of nations located closer the central system, creating prosperity in the process. Middle East Pty Ltd, Australia envisages this instrument to be one of the next extreme financial tools ever created and the enterprise that dominates it will grow by 2025 many folds bigger than Apple today, as it will also become the shadow welfare system over POMC-demonised populations and territories comparable in size and strategic value to that of the late 1800s and early 1900s British Empire.
  • Observers, futurists and international social engineering bodies
    • Planning and assisting the remainder of what is left of those nations and communities affected, during and post POMC impact, may represent a very effective approach in envisaging new types of collaboration between POMC and non-POMC-societies, likely arriving at new renewable energy inventions, essentials distribution methods, transportation, urban planning, architecture, legal systems, religions, agriculture, robotics, telecommunications, manufacturing and defence;  all in new forms of civilisation.
  • Science, environment, climate and energy organisations
    • The magnitude and scale of POMC daily killings may indirectly reveal the real size of actual oil reserves in the traditionally oil exporting countries, known only to few. In a bottom-up approach, if the scale of killing exceeds off-oil targets, suggested by the hypothesis and its calculator, which is centred primarily around growth only but not the principle consumption, then that would be a correlation to dwindling oil reserves far exceeding just the spare supplies needed to cover for growth, but even failing to satisfy the basic yet massive world daily oil needs; an indicator on the size of actual remaining reserves of easy oil.
    • The scale of POMC phenomena may help in a better and revised assessment of climate change effects and consequences, especially with the strong potential usage of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons in the process of POMC.
    • Plans for human migrations to POMC-depopulated territories closer to the equator from a potential new ice age struck North America and Europe, may benefit from a post POMC reality.


                How much more achievable would a forceful off-oil approach be, over a peaceful reduction of oil consumption globally by other means?

                Reduction of oil consumption globally would impact the current style of the world being based on the financial system that is dependent on exponential growth; the system that the majority of the world consciously and unconsciously know, prefer to live in, like, and will try to keep.

                The Off-oil approach, on the other hand, supports the continuity and prosperity of this style, except for POMC impacted populations.

                Mass killing seems achievable by processes like encouraging wide and long wars between oil producing nations (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Russia, others) or promoting ideologies like own-people-destroying Jihadism, turning against Muslim nations at the exporting wells by entities like ISIL, ISIS, Daaesh, Nusra, Boko-Haram, etc; that are formed and sustained outside any national or international legal frameworks, unlikely being accountable or stoppable by any known means.

                The most vicious element of the hypothesis lays in its potential of creeping and striking unstoppable any oil producing nation, weak or strong, major in oil production or small;  including Russia, China, UK, Mexico, Venezuela, Algeria and the US, threatening civilisation at its core, hence the name: Peak-Oil Musical Chairs.

 Two-Tier World

                Taking an increasing number of the population off of oil but keeping a minority to enjoy an abundance of very cheap oil supplies will gradually create a Two-Tier World (TTW), Powered and Pre-Industrial.

                In the new TTW, small but military-grade protected oil-powered spots will be emerging at current centres of political and financial power points (e.g. what is called “The Green Zone” in Baghdad created after 2003), surrounded by chaos-ridden pre-industrial communities and societies, resident to 80-90% of the population.

                In each nation under TTW, the majority will be forced to live pre-industrialised, uncivilised, demonised, helpless, powerless and self-destructing. TTW might eventually become universal over all nations transferring the world order to Two-Tier World.

Calculator Run – Example

To spare 1,157,861 barrel of oil daily, merely covering Y/Y growth, below is an example of how many people need to be taken off-oil - every year, according to POMC hypothesis. When no people left in a nation to take off-oil, the hypothesis creeps to another new nation[s] (i.e. Yemen, Saudi, Kuwait, Algeria, etc)



OCPC (barrel/daily)

Required off-oil percentage over entire population

Minimum population required to be taken off-oil yearly



























 Authored by Farkad Al Wattar of New Middle East Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved 2015.