Friday, October 17, 2014

We Have To What?!?

We're knowingly and happily letting 100-150 potential Duncans come here every day, from the three most Ebola-stricken countries on earth.
We've deployed 500 out of a planned contingent of 3000 troops to build 17 100-bed Ebola treatment centers there.
Because, according to the President, we have to fight Ebola there to make it safe for us here.

So howzat going to work, exactly?

There are, according to WHO numbers from 12 October, 8997 Ebola cases, and 4485 deaths, so far, from this outbreak of Ebola. (For reference, the largest prior Ebola outbreak was 425 cases in Uganda in 2000.) When Thomas Duncan got here on 20 September, there were then about 6200 cases, and 2900 total deaths. So in the intervening period, nearly 2800 new cases sprung up, and over 1500 of those previously infected died. And Ebola came to two additional countries, including ours, bringing that number to seven, up from five.

(Nota bene that those are the "official" numbers, representing only those cases that have been confirmed as Ebola by laboratory diagnosis. WHO and CDC have both long-acknowledged that those numbers are dreadfully lower than the actual tally, because those governments are incompetent, officials lie about numbers to downplay how far out of control it's gotten there, those counting cases are exhausted and overwhelmed, patients die at home undiagnosed in droves, don't come forward out of shame, fear, and disbelief even as they're dying, and frequently wander off into the jungle to meet death, or die in the street unseen, undiagnosed, and get buried or cremated before any testing or official diagnosis can be made. Thus the best estimates from outside agencies is that the real numbers are 2 to 2.5 times greater that those "official" statistics, at any point in time going back to early summer of this year.)

The three countries have filled every available treatment bed for Ebola patients they have, and it averages less than 30% of the number of beds needed to remove those patients from the general population, and do what they can to treat those infected.
As of 12 October, there are 1216 existing treatment beds, for over 3000 official infectees.
By mid-November, when the US contingent has built the planned 1700 additional beds, there will be an additional 6000 cases. Even if we were to double down, stay longer, and build 1700 more beds in another 6 weeks after that, there will then be 15,000-20,000 additional cases. The more we do, over the longer we spend there, the further behind our efforts fall, and fail.

That ignores the utter lack of Ebola workers. There are no people to work in even the first 17 centers. To care for 100 patients, it probably demands at least 20, and likely more like 50 people per makeshift Ebola hospital. That's 340-850 healthcare workers. International NGOs working this epidemic there struggle to find so many as 10. So when those centers are filled the minute they open, there'll be no one to care for the patients whatsoever.

Supposedly, part of our mission is to train the soldiers of the armies in question to fill some of those roles. Liberia's army, for example, has a total of only 2000 enlisted soldiers. Most of whom enforce border quarantine and public order. Pulling a sizable chunk of that force into Ebola treatment will weaken border restrictions, and allow Ebola to spread to Mali and Cote d'Ivoire. Further, these are soldiers who were used to enforce quarantine before, and were routinely bribed by people to get out and break the quarantine. These are not professional troops, they're nothing but minimally skilled illiterate thugs with weapons; their diligence at either the quarantine or the treatment role is highly suspect, and leads to the likelihood that they have already let Ebola spread to bordering countries, who themselves have done what such countries do: lie and deny to avoid the stigma of "Ebola-infected" being applied to to their lands. They control the press and the official reports, and the NGOs who might report otherwise are already buried in work in the original three afflicted countries, and have neither the time nor the inclination to go looking for troubles next door.

Thus, Ebola probably already is there now, gaining a foothold unreported, quietly festering and spreading until the truth comes out, and will thus be far too advanced and entrenched to affect when the truth finally bursts forth. And with no one left to go there to help anyway.

Even within the acknowledged Ebola-stricken countries, supplies for care are critically short. The average worker can only work in the protective gear for an hour or so before the boots are full of water from sweat, the masks are too fogged up to see through, and the worker is too dehydrated from fluid loss to work safely or effectively. Which necessitates another 25 minutes to carefully strip the gear off, and go rehydrate and recuperate. Then back into a mostly fresh ensemble, and repeat the process. So the average worker goes through up to 7 suits a day, each costing an average of $75 in real-world money, in countries where the average income is a few bucks a day, when there's any work.

Additional supplies sit in containers in the harbors, because the government officials won't pay the freight for free supplies, haven't received their customary bribes, and so additional supplies sit in harbors overseas unshipped because the first shipments haven't even cleared customs yet. Clinic workers get exposed and die for want of the stuff sitting a few miles away, because someone's palm hasn't been greased, as has been the standard procedure in Africa since forever. And Ebola just keeps rolling along.

Even if the gear gets cleared, it has to be delivered in the most inhospitable places, over the most unimproved road and transportation systems on earth, by the most inefficient workers anywhere, to the most overwhelmed caregivers known to man.

And all the while, those thousands of infected but untreated and unhospitalized Ebola carriers wander the streets, ride taxis, lay around the house, and die in the public thoroughfares, spreading more Ebola to more people every minute of every day, infecting a widening population with a Malthusian relentlessness. Ebola is a savings bond that yields about 25-30% interest per week. Every three to four weeks (going by those woefully inaccurate official numbers) it doubles.

The affected nations can't even keep up with burials, because people are simply dropping too fast to collect. And as they train more body collectors, the disease doubles again.

And as all this goes on, outside trade is non-existent, thus no employment, and therefore no hard currency for governments to buy and do with, no money to pay anyone, not even the soldiers, clinic staff, burial details, or customs workers, no food to eat, no paycheck to buy it with, and all that amidst a backdrop of endemic problems that have slain those populations in droves since long before Ebola's arrival, like malaria, yellow fever, and AIDS. And now, hunger and starvation, which further weakens immune systems, at a time when healthcare for anything other than Ebola there is non-existent, because the hospitals are closed, and the staffs have fled to parts unknown indefinitely.

Thus, at some unknown but inevitable point, the pitifully incompetent, bankrupt, and thoroughly overwhelmed shell of a government in each and every country, simply collapses. They don't accomplish much at the best of times, and this is certainly anything but that. And when the last shreds of civilization fail, and chaos, panic, suspicion, and anger meet ignorance and superstition, mobs form, riots break out, and there'll be no one to stop them. The current facilities will be swept away, the staffs beaten, kidnapped, or killed outright, and the entire region will descend into unimaginable chaos from coastlines to borders, in true African fashion. Then there'll just be Ebola, and lots of people, and no one to get between the two, as both are carried in a symbiotic tango of death over the next set of borders, where the entire process will repeat all over again, with the inevitability of the sun coming up in the morning.

And fixing all that, while cheerfully ignoring the certain end-state for those three countries, and the new realities for three more that will spring up in hours to days, is what we're supposed to jump in and fix with a handful of do-gooders, LGOPs, a contingent of techs, clerks, and jerks, and a few Marines.

On a continent that eats outsiders up metaphorically and literally in a thousand ways, and for a thousand years and more, going back to time out of mind.

To which my thoughtfully considered response can only be:
"Pull the other one, it's got bells on it."


Anonymous said...

My theory on this deployment is that there is a real fear that some bad actors will attempt to capture the virus and weaponize it. This WMD capability would outflank all efforts to stop radioactive "dirty bombs" with undetectable virus generators. The regime knows the math. However if you are going to operate in that area trying to interdict said actors, this is the type of support one might require to sustain such an effort. I believe everything else said is a smokescreen as the explanations do not make sense. Modern society in the West is fragile and increasingly vulnerable to this type of attack. As governmental structures continue to fail in West Africa, groups such as Boko Haram could serve as a conduit into afflicted regions. The possibilities are endless. If this were to occur, infection rates in the West would skyrocket, economies would tumble, and martial law would be implemented throughout. I will let others theorize if this is all self-induced. Given the widespread chaos that would ensue, this would be a tempting target for those inclined to seize such an opportunity. -D Close

Aesop said...

That's been an ongoing possibility since 1976.

It doesn't explain anything about why we're following this quixotic quest to cure Africa, rather than concentrating on securing our own castle first.

Should we send help?
Yes, absolutely, as much as we can.
Should we be letting passenger travel both ways continue outside strict military quarantine and supervision?
Hell no.
Should we focus most of our efforts on stopping it there, rather than preparedness here?
Hell no.

I laid out yesterday why trying to vaccinate our way out of the crisis there is doomed to failure.

If we do get a vaccine, the first 316M does should go here, if only because we're not the ignorant fuckwits who eat bats and kiss corpses amidst an epidemic that lives in bats and corpses.
And another 50 doses should go to each of any other country with the ability to replicate the vaccine and take care of their own people as well.
And then we can start worrying about saving the windowlickers of humanity from centuries of living in the most backwards and superstitious manner since, apparently, some of us were hunting saber-toothed cats with stone weapons and pointy sticks.

But we don't accomplish that by pulling our pants down and inviting the disease over here to have its way with us, which is what the current stratagem is all about.

And if we never get a functional vaccine (a very likely outcome) then a quarantine moat is the ONLY way to protect ourselves, and it's the one thing we aren't doing at all.

That is simply pure insanity.

Anonymous said...

I'm also wondering when Judge "I'm happy to enter the infected apartment without PPE" will quarantine himself.

He seems pretty damn eager to lockup Americans who have done nothing wrong, while wandering around willy-nilly himself.

I'd say, if you need to be monitored after being on the same plane, you need to be monitored after being in the F'ing HOUSE where it all started.

If this clown infects the whole emergency management hierarchy Dallas is even more F'd.

Don't get me wrong, I think this is one of the only times where such actions are justifiable, but they need to be applied to everyone, and not exempt the "only ones."

On another note, there are currently between 100 and 150 people a day entering the US from the 3 most affected countries. If stopping 150 people from entering (with a travel ban) will destroy Africa's economy, it is already destroyed. Walk away.

And... we need to be hammering at Lurie in public. Where is she, what's she doing, etc. NO NEW CZARS.


A Texan said...

@Anonymous 04:24

Nobody, IMHO, needs to weaponize Ebola. There are already thousands of weapons in existence, many of which are quite mobile, even air-mobile...they are otherwise known as infected people. I have also heard/seen that it is difficult to weaponize it - and whether that is true or not is beyond my lack of expertise.

Be that as it may, I don’t believe that this administration is doing anything to protect this country. It motivations and goals are far left political, and if the actions taken to further those goals happen to protect the US, it is (for us) a lucky accident.

You say that nothing else makes sense. True, if you were dealing with a normal, reflexively pro-American, President. This one, however, is far different than all before him. His motivation, I believe, is to put into practice what he has repeatedly said - that the US is not an exceptional nation, and that we bear some kind of collective guilt, centuries later, for slavery. Thus, according to this "logic" (which is no logic at all, merely an emotional, guilt- and hate-ridden view of this country and its obligations to the world), we must help African nations with big problems because...slavery. Or because...economic imperialism. Or because...fuck all knows why.
Note that I specifically, like Aesop, want to help the African nations impacted by Ebola as much as possible - while keeping us safe. Materials can be provided (whether they can, or will, be delivered within those countries is another matter}.

I know this: sending troops to operate in the very heart of the Ebola epidemic, in the open air, with very few, if any controls - while skilled doctors and nurses working in controlled conditions and wearing biohazard suits are catching Ebola - is, at best, utter stupidity of the kind that hasn't ever been before. At worst it is insanity or malevolence. It is a VIRTUAL GUARANTEE that several or several dozen troops will get Ebola. Yes, you can place them in quarantine (and there are plans to do so). But what are the specifics? HOW are they going to be in quarantine? In isolated rooms so that if someone is infected they don’t infect others? If so, WHERE can something like that be done with a medical certainty that the Ebola won't spread? If they AREN'T going to be isolated, then if one/a few have it they will ALL get it - and then how do you care for them? The point is that I don't know the answers to these questions, and neither does anyone else outside of the highest levels of government (and maybe they don't even know).

If there is a terrorist threat related to Ebola, they need to tell us - to justify sending troops to THE infected area. But we haven't been told anything, and with the history of government lying to us, and particularly THIS administration lying to us/hiding things from us on THIS matter, just sending several thousand soldiers there is not justifiable.

Bottom line: if a house across the street is on fire, you don't contain it by doing things that are likely to set your own house on fire. And sometimes, regrettable or tragic as it may be, you have to stand back and let it burn down - because to do otherwise would be to needlessly risk lives for nothing, simply because it can't be saved. It pains me to say that, because we ALWAYS help others in trouble, and do so pretty much no matter the expense in time, money or resources. But to do so at the risk of infecting our nation with a highly communicable, highly lethal disease is sheer insanity. It is even MORE insane when one considers that if we bring it here, we will almost certainly wind up with a natural reservoir here, one that will result in future epidemics at random points in the future (even assuming that we get the coming one under control).

Cybrludite said...

New czar, actually. A political hack of a lawyer whose only medical experience is that he might have possibly caught one of the ambulances he used to chase.

Anonymous said...

In a very short time, "we" will be unable to contain what Pretzeldent Ofucktard will; through indecision, inaction, and insanity; let in the country. I am still saddened by the situation in Africa., but as I said, it is not something we can realistically "fix". Every passing moment brings us closer to needing something closely resembling napalm to stop the spread of this contagion. Crying and wringing hands won't do it, nor will walking in a circle and waving our arms in the air.
Or clipboards, we just don't have enough clipboards...
1) Arrest the children making decisions now, and
2) Quickly have an adult begin to make the difficult but necessary and responsible decisions.
Or we're fucked. We might be fucked anyway, but let's not have 'stupidity' be one of the words on our country's tombstone.

mikej said...

From the World Health Organization at

"Ebola emerged nearly 40 years ago. Why are clinicians still empty-handed, with no vaccines and no cure? Answer: because Ebola has been, historically, geographically confined to poor African nations."

The obvious solution to this problem, if you're a Marxist, is to infect Americans. I can't cite any pronouncement of President Obola that echoes the sentiments expressed by the WHO, but I'm sure he's in perfect sympathy.