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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. I agree. Not to slander the individual or say they are uneducated, anyone can be wrong in the process of research. I would just be cautious and certainly not trusting. Established science would suggest we are lucky to not be in a Solar maximum, that atmospheric influences might be even more extreme. Though again, divergence in climate is not simply explained by it's hotter, colder, wetter or drier at any specific location. There are, of course, other regional variables; but the idea here is increasing periods of measurable short and long term extreme deviations per climatological norm at any specific geographic location. If anything, that we are not within increased Solar output could be taken as alarming.
  2. Of note, aside from the upgrade of Betsy to a Cat 4 as noted above, Carla is also now a confirmed Cat 4 landfall into Texas. Haiti was hit by two Cat 4 hurricanes within two years in Cleo ('64) and Flora ('63). Belize was also impacted by a Cat 4, Hattie, '65. Full report can be found here: 1961-1965 revisions
  3. Not to focus on / give attention to any one particular met, but since I shared a tweet from Webb earlier and he seems to still be dialed in on the evolution of the upcoming pattern and potential storm tracks, I'll share this as well.. If anyone objects please don't hesitate to speak up.
  4. Fri 00z ECMWF backed off totals several inches from last night's / Thur 00z op. Maybe .5 to 1.5 inches for most areas up Holston Valley and KTRI. KTYS might get a light dusting. Only significant totals are for some of the higher elevations of SWVA across the highest ridges of Clinch and Walker mountains but that's maxing out around 3 inches so nothing too exciting there. Perhaps there will be another swing in outputs but this just look like the bulk of moisture is going to stay south of the region in time for the cold to play ball. What overriding moisture is remaining will be nosed off until the cold can dam against the Apps. Would need a significant shift in the low and better timing with the cold. Hard to bank on that. If the cold pattern / reinforcement can stay in place perhaps some action around Thanksgiving?
  5. The 00z ECMWF output 1-3 inches across upper East Tennessee to 4-5 inches across the higher elevations of southwest VA is certainly eye-opening. More of a light dusting south of 40. 1-2 for KTYS and perhaps 2-3 for KTRI? It's still way early. My pessimism aside, these outputs may even go up today, tomorrow, perhaps even into the weekend, but I'm not buying into even shallow totals until there is a significant increase. Even then it will probably still be at most 1-2 inches for KTRI and 2-4 for higher elevations to the west and northwest. But any snow is cool for mid-November. So there's some optimism.
  6. Halong's development and structure very reminiscent of Mikael in the GOM last year. Probably SS Cat 5 right now. ADT up to 7.3 / 150 kts now. This beast is cranking...
  7. Increasingly warm core now and has eye-like feature. This should be upgraded to a named storm at least.
  8. Since we now have a TC showing up within modeling, the moisture stream is shifting east into the Tennessee Valley. There will still be significant moisture stream up into the Mississippi Valley in combo with the frontal boundary, so the flood threat is still possible there. However, with a well-developed surface low such as TC, the flooding threat may shift east into the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. This is a late development that needs to be watched. Of course many areas in the Southeast still need the rain.
  9. To say it's been rare to see GOM development this late in October would be an understatement. The last purely GOM system to become a TC this late in the calender year was Juan in 1985: The reasons meteorologically-speaking are fairly straight forward. Early October is very different than late October. Strong frontal boundaries and the jet stream have typically overtaken and suppressed favorable atmospheric dynamics for cyclogenesis by this point.
  10. This is a good thing as any slower setup would nearly guarantee a north gulf coast hurricane. As it stands, this may still end up making landfall as a "strong" tropical storm. Which again, the flooding potential is the real threat here during frontal merger up the Mississippi Valley.
  11. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche has nearly closed off a low-level vortex. TD is very close to being classified and this likely becomes a tropical storm. Conditions are favorable in the short term for intensification, however, as the system moves NNW, it will probably encounter less favorable conditions due to frontal interaction. For any significant strengthening, it will need to get its act together fast. That is possible though as it is currently under decent atmospheric conditions and upper level divergence. This system is expected to bring significant flooding into the Mississippi Valley this weekend as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough and merges into a frontal boundary.
  12. The worst conditions a very-lopsided asymmetric Nestor has to offer will be well east of the circulation. That appears as a very strong line of convection that will be moving into and over the Florida peninsula tomorrow. Radar show some very powerful cells lining up south to north. This activity is currently southwest of Tampa Bay moving in their direction:
  13. Oh boy... Look way out in lala fantasy land! But nice to see at least some modeling play at snow in the long range.
  14. NSFW for some explicit language, but this is very interesting to see a contemporary issues / political news show focusing on Barry Myers, AccuWeather and the NWS.
  15. A broad surface trough has developed east of Nicaragua near 80W in the western Caribbean. General easterly showers and thunderstorms are moving into Nicaragua along its western boundary, though the trough itself is moving very slowly if hardly a westward drift. This area may get tagged an invest tonight or tomorrow. The trough was modeled with considerable confidence in most of the main globals over the past four to five days, however, only the GFS has remained persistent to develop a tropical cyclone out of this feature. The NHC has not yet mentioned the area in their outlooks, but I would not be surprised if they begin mentioning it by tomorrow if a diurnal MCS goes up tonight out over the Caribbean or somewhere central to the trough axis. Confidence in TC genesis will probably remain low unless this gets better modeling support, or at least something begins resolving on the ECMWF as well. If a TC does develop, score this a win for the GFS though -- much like it did with Dorian back in late August out over the MDR.
  16. Well the micro-vortex is the tiny eye we observed with Hagibis. Really this phenomenon is no different than your average microcane or small hurricane eyewall in general, it just takes a very low shear environment + very high maximum potential intensity w/ high TCHP to get something like a Hagibis or Wilma; and even still, the aformentioned type of micro-vortex may still not occur. Otherwise, outer banding influences in the formative stages usually starves off or dissipates a smaller vortex before MPI can be achieved. Usually the intensification phase of the entire tropical cyclone's broader core cuts off or diverts outer low level convergence rather quickly away from a tiny interior vortex, if it happens to exist, while a larger eye or concentric band takes over. This is usually prior to the system even becoming a hurricane or typhoon. It's just a really chaotic and unpredictable process, at least until the main eyeband or core has consolidated, to know how large or small the dominate vort will be. In short, there really isn't a way to model the chaotic nature of such a phenomenon. It is rather part luck on how small and aligned an MCS-induced mid-level vort is in conjunction to the low level vort underneath. If that can resolve and the MPI is sky high, a small vort can become dominant and remain that way through rapid intensification all the way into the sub-900s hPa. But it's really a crapshoot to know the probability of such occurring. Sometimes the original vort max is just larger and remains that way.
  17. Radar confirms that Super Typhoon Hagibis did not actually make landfall on Anatahan Island. The southern periphery of the island got scraped by the core, but the worst conditions of the inner boundary of the eyewall missed just offshore. Again, good example how satellite imagery can be deceiving as it looked like a direct hit in the posts above. Angle of sensor, parallax and lat/long postion of eye is important.