AmenRa's Corner


Creditcane: I can only come in if I'm invited.

Dragonfly doji day. Refused to go higher. Still holding above 1110. Back above the SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1110.88). Above the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1102.66). QE2infinity.



Doji day. Above the SMA(21) and the SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 14.6% retrace. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1158.60).

Spinning top day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Held the SMA(144). Holding above 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2988).

Hanging man day (about time). Didn't test the 76.4% retrace. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).

Bearish harami day (plus todays candle within body of previous candle). Still above the SMA(144). Still above 147.91 (fib .236). Midpoint above the EMA(10). The 38.2% retrace (153.99) held. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 152.58).

Bearish short day (did close below midpoint of previous day). The 14.6% retrace is relegated to history. The 0.0% retrace at 28.83 is eagerly waiting. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14).

Hanging man day (with a long tail). Another refusal to push higher. Still trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4369.71).

Doji day (but first day is too small for doji to indicate reversal). Below all SMA's. Still below 38.2% retrace. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.20).


The Bond Report 8.5.10

Today was pretty much a MIRROR IMAGE of yesterday's action in the credit markets. So that means if you stand on your head and read the REPORT from yesterday, you are GOOD TO GO, homies...

Corpies: LQD 0.18%; AGG 0.12%; JNK -0.10%; HYG -0.05%;
Govies: TLT 0.47%; IEI 0.27%; TIP 0.37%

We did nothing. We are bearish equities here after a few fails at 1225-1230 area, and we don't buy the quadruple bottom (or is it quintuple) in TNX as a springboard for a massive bond bloodbath as we celebrate the economic recovery....


CV said...


VIX - "Smashed Inverted Hammer"

CV said...


& can I ask you a question?... Where do the last 3 tails on those JNK candles point?

I've lost my bearings...

CV said...

@Amen (7:02)


Let me give you, perhaps, the "other" version of HAMMER TIME...

"OBV -other blogs versions- how can I 'splain it?"...

It's sorta like, a well, another way to call another cat a kitty...

It seems I gotta start the explainin'... BUST IT...

Anonymous said...

Ummmmm was that suppose to be 1125/1130 rather than 1225-1230?

Likely a stoopid question but......

AmenRa said...


My guess is that it started out as a bearish long day but closed near the open. Especially since weekly claims is making a fast march towards 500k.

Anonymous said...


what can one say-

stunning- she along with Sotomayor-

a veritable centerfold of female beauty- at the ready- to dish out American justice-

and when Kagan dons the earrings and the coy look-

damn (I am a man)- but even I feel like swooning

Anonymous said...

CV @ 8:25-

it's all a show- an illusion- much like Bernanke burning the dollars @ Onion-

in reality it is like Battlebots- fighting to steal the money of the schmoes still dabbling in the market-

I am convinced- contrary to b22's admonishments otherwise- that Fed is all in on keeping the stock market up (as an asset class along w/ all other assets that they have clearly and openly propped up) except that it is done w/ behind the scenes manipulations-

it staggers me that anyone would think that they have not done this-

when it is clear that the Fed has expressed the willingness to defend assets prices across all classes which includes stocks

Bruce in Tennessee said...

The One Missing Investing Ingredient: Luck

"Looking to build a nest egg? Start early, save aggressively, and hope.

Investors saving for retirement can find mutual funds that invest in almost any kind of asset, but they can't buy the one thing that will have the biggest impact on their nest egg: luck.

Forget about who's the hottest fund manager, which is the best-performing fund or which sector appears to be the best bet. The biggest factor in long-term returns is how the financial markets happen to perform during the 30 or so years an investor puts money away for retirement."

...May I simply get to the point: Bullshit.

Returns from investing and the ability to become wealthy have very little to do with luck. They are a combination of things.

First, choose something you enjoy but that pays a good income. If you want to major in art history, go ahead, but you may drive a cab.

Second,live beneath your means.

Third, know enough about investing that you take advantage of what the market gives you. I got where I am because of investing correctly and knowing when to leave in the tech bubble. There are always times like these for the alert investor. If you throw up your hands, and say it is too difficult for me to know when to pull the trigger and when to lay low, then your passivity in investing won't amount to much.

Fourth, really enjoy life. If you don't you risk becoming passive as you age, and this ain't good.

CV, I enjoy your blog. I like it because it is focused on investing, and I like the opinions of investors like Karen, Lb, Amen, and you. I am thinking of investing 7 figures in the near future, and my reading of what you guys do every day gives me a little juice to do better in what I do with my investments. Nice job.

karen said...

Bruce! 4 Rules to live by! will copy and share with my two spoilers... As for luck, chance, you have to be open to it, to get it..

Hey, Ahab. I am in total agreement with you, finally, on the market as an asset class that is being defended.. with the government so invested in the market.. how could it be otherwise? And, I fear that the wizened old-timers, who have who have seen "human" manipulations eventually undone, are about to learn new lessons with computerized trading..

AmenRa said...

Romer resigning Sept 3. Probably couldn't stand all of the lies.

I-Man said...

If someone asked the I what the secret of trading was, I and I would have to say:


I-Man said...

Wish I could spend more time during the day tape chatting like before, but its hard to express how immersed I-Man is in the 1min timeframe these days.

People ask me what the market did today and I cant even tell them, I just end up describing what the trading was like.

Its weird.

arbitrage789 said...

I-Man (11:20)

No doubt it's the "secret" to success in a lot of professions.

karen said...

i'm quite obsessive myself as well all know..

DL, do you have the habits of Ben? 2-4 hours of sleep? aren't you on the east coast? MD?

arbitrage789 said...

AmenRa (11:17):

She also understands that raising taxes suppresses economic growth

arbitrage789 said...


I'm in VA.

And I need a lot more than 4 hours sleep.

arbitrage789 said...


I'm sure all your obsessions are good.


karen said...

VA is for lovers..

karen said...

i think bat told me to unfollow breaking news:

Downpour, flash floods kill at least 50 in Indian Kashmir's Ladakh region

Chile mine collapse traps 30 north of Copiapo; no word on casualties - Reuters

arbitrage789 said...

Good night to all on the West Coast.

karen said...

"There are strong reasons to expect the effects of a tax change on output to depend on such features of the change as its perceived permanence, its impact on marginal tax rates, and how it affects the tax treatment of investment. Thus it is natural to ask whether the output consequences of tax changes depend not only on their size, but also on their other characteristics."

karen said...

I will second that Good night!! : )

McFearless said...

was a decent show, not great though

McFearless said...

oh yeah, and the fed is full of potent directors, you guys are right, they have it all figured out in propping up the market, don't fight the fed, all knowing, all powerful, they control the world, you are all but beasts that roam their land.

laughable how opinions on conspiracy have become "fact" for the masses.

hope you are all betting on this, why not get involved if it's this easy?

McFearless said...

"in reality it is like Battlebots- fighting to steal the money of the schmoes still dabbling in the market"

uh, .....sorry, but if the fed is "all in" on keeping the market up and we're going to treat this as fact then these people are not schmoes, the schmoes are the one's sitting around talking about it 100% convinced it's true and it will continue to infinity yet doing absolutely nothing at all to profit from it, not trying to be a dick, just calling it as I see it. Honestly, anyone saying this, why are you not 100% long, in fact, why aren't you leveraged long??? If you already are leveraged long, ignore me, if you aren't and this is your reality, I'd love your explanation as to why you aren't involved on the long side in a big way.
really though, all the.... "clear and open operations" that occur "behind the scenes" just not sure how that goes together exactly, am I the only one that had a laugh at that? I must be nuts.

the slight problem of course with this theory is, you know, the math of it all, and the fact that the rally was GLOBAL, not to mention, it ignores facts such as mutual funds going from a lot of cash to virtually none....sticky details I realize. While you are at it, please explain to me why they haven't been able to make RE find a bottom, you know, since they can just make it so, are you really going to try and convince me the stock market as an asset class is more important than RRE, or the bond market for that matter.....yeah, good luck with explaining that.

amazing, I get ripped up here a bit the last few days for continuing to trade on the long side yet it seems so many are convinced of the Fed's mighty power.

perhaps its time for me to go into hibernation with my radical views

good luck to you guys, I hope these opinions work out for you all "in the long run"

CV said...

CV's take is that if Romer is quitting, they must have announced that they were cutting back on donuts & pastries at the meetings...

McFearless said...


I like you man, you seem like a good guy, but I've seen you ridicule religion a number of times yet you roll with some mystical thinking here:

I am convinced- ..... except that it is done w/ behind the scenes manipulations-

sounds faith based to believe, with all your heart, in something you can't see or prove....

Anonymous said...


Where did I say that Fed would be successful? Why do you interpret what I say as "the Fed is all powerful"?

It appears that you don't think the Fed has any interest in supporting assets- as if it isn't in their mandate- that they just dick around and pull ideas out of their ass for no obvious goal- they're just bored I guess. I think Bernanke just came up w/ the idea of buying MBS for no apparent reason, the other governors asking "why Ben? why?" and he answering "oh I don't know- it just sounded fun- thought we could kill some time fucking around w/ mortgage backed securities".

and where did I say "clear and open operations that occur behind the scenes"? Glad you got a chuckle- but I suggest you re-read what I wrote:


so let me interpret for you- they openly support other asset classes but support stock prices behind the scenes- (what are they going to do- put it in the Fed minutes?)

but- obviously this just can't be true because I don't have a picture of Bernanke making a trade on his Schwab account-

but intuitively it makes sense to me and many others that the Fed along w/ the USG would be interested in supporting stock prices as best they can along w/ any other asset class-

does it mean then that the Fed is "all powerful"?

or are they the image you seem to carry- the "hapless central bankers" just bumbling along unable to do one thing that has an obvious purpose and goal

In any event- think what you want

CV said...


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