Covid outbreak 2nd wave claims by media not supported by balanced data sets




Media hyping 2nd wave showing increased cases , particularly in states that were first to reopen, TX, FLA , AZ...

Data does not support this , increased cases  are largely the result of increased testing, positivity rates are steady at 5-7% .

Texas is a good example of data not supporting the fear mongering . Tests have increased nearly 4x in the last 1-2 months, increasing 20% on a 7 day avg. . Hospital  rate data shows plenty of capacity at 30%+ , and a 2-1x ventilator to patient ratio:   5844/2793.

Similar data found  in Arizona:  testing +2x in last 2 months , positives steady at 7%.

In all these states the daily mortality rate is trending 25-35% downward since peaking approximately 2 months ago. Alabama has been cited as a hotspot, it had only 1 death yesterday.

Data on the US is not fairly discussed, US is the 3rd most populous nation , China at #1 has unreliable data

On a  apples to apples basis, US has a lower death rate than many European nations in deaths per 1m population .

The US death rate is 35% lower , adjusted for nursing home deaths in NYC & NJ where infected Covid -19 elderly patients  were sent back to nursing homes in error , accelerating  deaths.

The US has the highest obesity rate at  over 30% , this is  among the highest in the world. Obesity is the highest  correlated morbidity factor , and the US, adjusted for high obesity and the nursing home error ,has one of the lowest death rates in the  western world per 1million , rivaling Germany & Austria.

Recent "outbreaks" in Germany are also not supported by data. China data is unreliable..

Thus, it appears any significant market correction induced by the current Covid-19 outbreak claims should be seen opportunistically.




Thank You

Robert Maltbie, CFA
Singular Research, President

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