Saturday, July 27, 2019

Swinson Bounce? What Swinson Bounce? Despair for overrated new Lib Dem leader as three new BOMBSHELL polls show her party flatlining

On Wednesday, when the first poll came out after Boris Johnson became Tory leader, I suggested that there had been no Boris Bounce over and above what had already been factored in for weeks. I realised within just a few hours that I'd been a bit premature in saying that, because I hadn't anticipated the bloodbath reshuffle that transformed the Tory government into a vehicle for delivering No Deal.  That, rather than Johnson becoming leader, was the 'shock and awe' moment that had the potential to produce a sizeable swingback from the Brexit Party to the Tories, and so it has proved.

Deltapoll (Britain-wide):

Conservatives 30% (+10)
Labour 25% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 18% (+2)
Brexit Party 14% (-10)

Opinium (Britain-wide):

Conservatives 30% (+7)
Labour 28% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+1)
Brexit Party 15% (-7)

YouGov (Britain-wide):

Conservatives 31% (+6)
Labour 21% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 20% (-3)
Brexit Party 13% (-4)

(Note: For reasons known only to our Anglocentric pollsters and media, the SNP and Plaid Cymru are often excluded from the initial results summaries, but we'll find out the results for those parties when the datasets appear.)

Any conclusions about these trends must be provisional, because if - as seems eminently possible - the next election takes place without Brexit having been delivered, there's likely to be a huge swing in the opposite direction back to the Brexit Party.  But what may be of greater long-term significance is that the media hype about Jo Swinson isn't being replicated in hard polling numbers.  Opinium and Deltapoll show only a minimal Swinson Bounce, while YouGov are suggesting that the lift the Lib Dems got in their Wednesday poll has already been fully reversed.  There was an expectation that any votes Johnson took back from the Brexit Party would be balanced out to some extent by moderate Tories moving to the Lib Dems, but there's no obvious sign of that happening so far.

UPDATE: It's the same basic story from ComRes, although the pro-Tory swing isn't quite so big...

ComRes (Britain-wide):

Conservatives 28% (+3)
Labour 27% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 19% (+2)
Brexit Party 16% (-3)


  1. Look forward to seeing the Scottish Sub-Sample - suspect SNP support will have not shifted.

  2. Aye, but Scotland is another country.
    Truer today than its ever been.
    Best feedback from the public than any other AUOB march at Campbelltown today.
    We'll done to the organisers.
    The footsodgers really value and appreciate your efforts.
    We're winning, let's keep our eyes on the prize.

  3. James

    You forgot that the future is not linear. It's not "just like now" except just one condition changes.

    This is a big problem with many YES discussions. They think a Brexit indy will be just like 2014 only with Westminster hamstrung by Brexit. This is a massive miscalculation...Westmisnter has not stood still and have laid the ground work to pull the rug out from everything YES relies on.

    1. Aye. Scots love Boris and will blame herr juncker in his allied luxembourg bunker for the empty supermarket shelves. Support for a hard brexit will soar as Boris sends £3.5m a day north on a cardboad red bus. Union flags will be flown across the land, with the brexit party (not the Scottish Tories as they are remainders) topping the polls.

      Rule britannia, lets all have a mass drunken brawl on the waves as the ship goes down!

      Damn stupid nats just can't see the golden age beginning.

    2. Not to worry Trump will send the Liberty Ships with chlorinated KFC.

    3. The HoR and/or senate will block that along with any trade deal unless the backstop / gfa are respected.

    4. The backstop is not required and the Senate have their own problems with the Wall.

    5. If the brits don't enforce a hard border on the island of Ireland, then the province as good as remains in the EU.

      The ukba and hmrc will need to set up shop somewhere. If that's in N. Ireland, then the gfa is broken. So it will be Cairnryan. Or more likely Gretna.

  4. If England wants to dispense with democracy and attempt to maintain the union by force, it's going to need to make itself super popular with the international community, not causing them or their citizens/businesses in Scotland any trouble. This is particularly the case for the Europeans.

    So, how's that going Turd Murphy herr bunkers?

    1. By Europeans you must mean the Liberal political elites and not the working people.

    2. The working classes want to dispense with democracy, starting with Scotland?

    3. The poor will of course suffer under a hard brexit while bozo and mogg make a killing shorting the £.

      The poor can't afford to stockpile, nor do they have the space. £ crash inflation hits them the hardest, while those at the bottom of the skills/business pyramid always lose their jobs first.

      While bozo downs the finest champaign on the riviera, the unemployed will be told to get on their bikes, only to discover that they can't as they no longer have free movement. The only option will be a tory poor house factory.

      The hard right tory 'golden age' draws near.

      This is why the likes of Alister Jack are so pro brexit.

    4. Blah blah, Harrumph blah. Foreigners in Scotland and the, supporting the EU enemy who want to politically dominate the UK will be deported WEF.

  5. YouGov Scotland sub-sample;

    SNP 47
    Con 21
    LD 12
    Lab 11
    BXP 5
    Green 3
    Other 2

    1. Without "Other":

      Indy 51
      Unionist 44.9
      Neutral (BXP) 5.1

    2. Have the datasets been published? I can't see them yet.