Grocery Stores and Other Retailers Forced to Cope with Consumer Demand during COVID-19 Outbreak

By Keith Morelli

TAMPA (March 25, 2020) -- In normal times, shoppers browse the aisles of the grocery store, pick what they want or need, toss it into the cart and move on their way. They never consider the process it takes to get that product onto the shelf. But since the COVID-19 outbreak and spread, a greater importance and awareness has been placed on the pre-sale process known as supply chain management.

That’s the process that begins with gathering raw resources that make up the product, its manufacture, storage, distribution and ends with it being put on the grocery store shelf. No one takes note when the products are there, as they usually are. They do notice when the products are not there. Toilet paper, meats, pantry staples and other items deemed necessary in what may be an extended period of quarantine, have been missing and everyone is wondering why.



A. People are following orders – or strong suggestions – to “stay home.” Commodities such as paper goods, meat and dairy are flying off the shelves due to panic purchases (six to eight weeks of stockpile purchases in some cases) multiplied by millions of shoppers.  Stores will slowly recover and replenish; however, this is a classic “demand shock” in the supply chain.



A. The current demand has surged simply due to the complete change in lifestyle – “Stay home and stay safe” – that is driving radical change in shopping behavior.


People are doubling down on commodities deemed critical for long term home isolation and buying patterns driven by the “demand shock” are the root cause. There is no supply issue and supply is ramping up as manufacturers continue to increase production to meet the spike in commodity demand. This is temporary and short term.




A. Can manufacturers diversify to produce consumer ready products? Can steps to market be eliminated? Can changes be made in packaging and ancillary branding that speed up product availability?

Q. As the supply chain industry meets the challenges posed by this crisis, is data being collected that can be used to create a new “crisis” model that will solve most, if not all, the problems this time around, like shortages of items?

A. Short answer ... no. Supply chains are so complex and varied that any data we collect would be out of date before we could share it. Companies will rethink inventory policies and sourcing agreements going forward to reduce out-of-stock situations on critical items, such as medical supplies.

Q. What’s the best way out of this retail problem?


Some distributors already are beginning to adapt. Last week, according to Reuters, “Amazon will only receive vital supplies at its U.S. and U.K. and other European warehouses until April 5, its latest move to free up inventory space for medical and household goods in high demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.”

Q. Will it get worse before it gets better?

A. As states issue mandates for citizens to stay home, buying patterns are likely to continue to clear the shelves of pantry items. However, if a combination of above steps are implemented, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
