Wednesday, 6 December 2017

Coin flip Brexit to come?

So if May does not survive the week, of which there is an outside change I feel given her recent public appearances, then I think we come to a coin flip.

1) Hammond gets the gig as PM and takes us down the softest non-Brexit, Brexit imaginable. This is not such a terrible strategy, all those UKIP voters soon went back to Labour anyway when there was a General Election. Perhaps this may do the trick, winning lots of remainers onto your 35% base would be a good effort.

2) Gove gets the job and we go Hard Brexit with the DUP. This is, um, a higher risk strategy as it involves continuing the civil war in the Establishment and finding out how much of the remoaning is bluster and how much is true. As such, he will shine as a national hero forever or be condemned to the depths of a Gordon Brown.

What is clearer by the day, is that the middle road of May is harder to achieve, not just in Brussels, but in the Cabinet too.


hovis said...

if 1) what is the point of the tory party (I'd say that anyway) and Parliament. Better they abolish themsleves and wwe have direct rule from Brussels via the Civil Service and be done with the pretence.

Matt said...

Yeah, my choice in the EU Referendum was which set of w*nkers I had to put up with. I only want one - if I get Brussels the UK tw*ts have to go. Preferable with lengths of piano wire for the piss-poor treasonous job of Brexit they have managed thus far.

E-K said...

Hovis +1 and a boycot of the BBC too.

Anonymous said...

Theresa May needs to acquire a backbone some time during the next ten days, otherwise she should go.

For her to carry on with her current cringing posture towards the EU is rather as if Neville Chamberlain had managed to cling on as Prime Minister in May, 1940.

And we all know how that would have turned out.

Anonymous said...

Where Remain went wrong - had they threatened that OUT would result in either Gove or Hammond as PM even I'd have reconsidered voting out... Project Fear dropped a bollock there!

Bill Quango MP said...

Even after the Narvik fiasco Neville thought he should carry on.

But if a nation could change its leader then, at the very moment when a huge invading army was smashing through their forces, then it can change its leader now.

Her time is passed.

She doesn't just lack the skills for Brecit. She lacks any of the skills necessary for being Prime Minister.
She is in Brown territory. A hopelessly out of depth individual muddling through because people are afraid the alternative might be worse.

Well, the alternative was Miliband. And was no worse. But his failure led to Corbyn.

That's where you end up with these mediocrities. The end of the spectrum.

Anonymous said...

"Be careful what you wish for.." glorious full dolby, slo-mo crash magnificence. Will keep "The Thick of It" scriptwriters in plot lines for decades to come.

As for historians, what will they dub this period in history? With a not to Arlene - that gifted politician who pissed £0.5bn away only to be given a £1bn more, we should call it The InGlorious Revolution.

They say the British invented farce and he it is in all it's glory with May and Davis front and centre.

Off to check my Swiss bank account.

Steven_L said...

Perhaps this may do the trick, winning lots of remainers onto your 35% base...

If free movement of people stays I reckon a lot of floating votes, and a wedges of that 35% 'base' you imagine the tories have will desert them.

The vote to leave was basically the masses voting down the establishment, big business and the professions that free movement of people with Poland and Romania is a price worth paying for the common market.

The nation is still divided on this. In the absence of what people now dub a 'hard border' to protect the economic privilege being born in the UK bestows on them, I reckon these folk will vote for the economic protectionism Corbyn and McDonnell are offering over a tory party that is perceived to only care about protecting rich people in the south east.

Why is wanting a border being painted as unreasonable or unworkable?

Wildgoose said...

+1 Steven_L.

And not only must Freedom of Movement end, so also must the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. It is unacceptable that they should expect to impose EU law for EU citizens in a sovereign nation outside the EU, thereby relegating UK citizens to second-class status in their own countries.

Give Gove the job. He is that brilliant rarity of a Scottish Politician who is actually capable and committed to doing a good job in whatever brief he is given. (Unlike the usual shower of anti-English bigots).

Anonymous said...

@12:37 Gove, as well as being a wholly-owned sub of Murdoch, is a complete dick.

Jan said...

All this could have been decided months ago.

The border with Ireland has to be "hard" as otherwise it's not workable. I can see people from all over the world getting to the UK via Ireland if there are no customs checks.

It's preposterous that the European Court of Justice thinks they should be able to make decisions about anyone in the UK after Brexit. If any of us go to another country then we have to obey their laws and are subject to their discipline. Why should it be any different here?

Anonymous said...


Two options if this happens

1) UK people alongside Irish at airports and ports in the Republic. The Irish might wear this but the EU might not. Ireland not a Schengen countty.

2) megachecks on all sea and air movements from the island of Ireland into UK. If we are out the Human Rights legislation goes asap inshallah.

Ireland has a LOT of UK trade.

aodlord13 said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Remoaner in Chief said...

Timed at 6:45 this morning so it could hit the morning news. Seems Arlene got the extra bung she wanted.No mention of that financial arrangement

Both Parties have reached agreement in principle across the following three areas under consideration in the first phase of negotiations, on which further detail is set out in this report:

a. protecting the rights of Union citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the Union;
b. the framework for addressing the unique circumstances in Northern Ireland; and
c. the financial settlement.

3. Progress was also made in achieving agreement on aspects of other separation issues.

4. The positions detailed in this report form a single and coherent package. Agreement in principle has been reached on the package as a whole, as opposed to individual elements.

5. Under the caveat that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, the joint commitments set out below in this joint report shall be reflected in the Withdrawal Agreement in full detail. This does not prejudge any adaptations that might be appropriate in case transitional arrangements were to be agreed in the second phase of the negotiations, and is without prejudice to discussions on the framework of the future relationship.

So now it's fireworks or a damp squib. Sunday Politics will be interesting

CityUnslicker said...

damp squib. I feel the leavers recognise the key objective pre 2020 is to actually leave the EU.

Anonymous said...

As long as we're out out out I can even stomach a bung to EU. But we must must must get our courts away from EU and our immigration system likewise.

Once we are out, will the EU keep picking at what happens re Irish Republic and threatening us? I like to think not, once we are out calmer heads will prevail. And if they don't, I hope there are enough Brits with the heart and stomach for the scrap. Hopefully metaphorical.

Perhaps, having left, we should extend a guarantee to Poland that Britain will stand by her in defending her frontiers, this time from Merkel's Millions rather than the Wehrmacht.