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Best- and worst-case scenarios for Texas in 2019: How far can high-powered offense take the Longhorns?

Before the 2018 season, Texas fans were begging for anything remotely close to a New Year's Six bowl game -- a sniff of a Big 12 championship would suffice, too.

Now, aside from the hefty Sugar Bowl rings, the Longhorns' 10-win season also earned them a revitalized fan base with a new set of expectations.

The articles with "Sam Ehlinger" and "Heisman" in the same headline are officially being published, as are bold predictions sending Texas to the College Football Playoff. Then there's the cover of Sports Illustrated.

But for every bold prediction favoring Texas, there are a fair share of voices wondering, "What if this year is closer to the 7-6 Texas Bowl season rather than 2018?"

One common argument for Texas is simple: Ehlinger. As long as the Longhorns have him and the explosive offense making plays, they will have a shot in just about any game. But what happens when the offense isn't enough? And where exactly is the ceiling (or rock bottom) set for this year's team?

Here are Texas' best- and worst-case scenarios for 2019:

Best-case scenario

Not only are Ehlinger and the offense clicking from the first snap of the season, but so is the Longhorns' defense. This is put on full display as Texas takes care of LSU in Week 2. A couple of weeks later, Texas will end Oklahoma State's four-game win streak against the Longhorns en route to a 5-0 start heading into the Red River Showdown.

Oklahoma will win the matchup of top-five teams, though Texas will respond with three straight wins against Kansas, TCU and Kansas State. While the final three weeks will provide a trio of scares, Texas narrowly escapes Ames and Waco before winning a shootout against Texas Tech. The Longhorns' 11-win season will send them to AT&T Stadium for a rematch with Oklahoma, where they will be one win from avenging its lone loss and a likely College Football Playoff berth.

Worst-case scenario

The youth at defense repeatedly puts the Longhorns in insurmountable deficits, including a blowout loss to LSU on national television. Ehlinger takes a slight step back after feeling the effects of Lil'Jordan Humphrey's departure. However, the Longhorns' biggest concern resides on the other side of the ball. The lack of experience leads to a fifth straight loss to Oklahoma State before Texas falls to 3-3 after the Red River Showdown.

The defense will start to piece things together in the second half of the season, stringing together wins against Kansas, TCU and Kansas State. Just as Texas appears to find its stride, Iowa State will derail any hopes the Longhorns had of winning out. Texas takes care of Texas Tech, bringing the Longhorns' four-loss season to a close -- a season that saw their Big 12 title hopes all but destroyed in October.


An 11-win season may just be more realistic than an eight-win year for the Longhorns, but somewhere between the two is where they'll likely finish. It's hard to picture Texas falling under the nine-win mark, but the defensive concerns are indeed alive and well both inside and outside of the program.

As for the offense, Ehlinger should develop after another offseason in the system, and he will have some of the best wide receivers in the conference to help him out. As long as inexperience doesn't plague this defense, the Longhorns finishing the regular season with 10 wins doesn't seem too outlandish.

Alex Briseño|Texas blogger


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