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Parsi: Israel would benefit from U.S. accommodation with Iran

Here is a bit of sanity and reason from Trita Parsi. It has been excerpted here and there, but the only way to do it justice is to cut and paste the entire piece from Foreign Policy.

As I’ve noted before, there are perhaps 50 people in the world who have a sufficiently detailed understanding of Iranian politics and its nuclear development program to provide recommendations that are worth considering. I am not one of them. Neither, apparently, is anyone in the Bush Administration. Parsi is.

Mismarriage of Convenience

Analysis by Trita Parsi

Iran and Israel are stuck in a dysfunctional relationship that neither party can escape on its own. Hereâ€™s how to break up their fight.

Last week, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)â€”the powerful pro-Israel lobbying groupâ€”held its annual policy conference in Washington, and it went as you might expect. Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain roused the faithful with a call to tighten the noose on Iran and mocked those who favor a more diplomatic approach. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice explained that negotiating with Iranian leaders would be pointless â€œwhile they continue to inch closer to a nuclear weapon under the cover of talk.â€ Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called for â€œall possible meansâ€ to be used to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. A few days later, Israelâ€™s Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz warned that an attack on Iran is â€œunavoidableâ€ as long as Tehran â€œcontinues with its program for developing nuclear weapons.â€

As if to underscore these arguments, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad obligingly played the role of villain, predicting ominously from Tehran that Israel will â€œsoon disappear off the geographical scene.â€ Against this backdrop, itâ€™s safe to say that few at AIPAC were convinced by newly minted Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obamaâ€™s call for direct U.S. talks with Iran (though the Illinois senator did win many new friends at the conference this year). In fact, AIPAC and Israeli leaders fear that any bargain between Washington and Tehran would come at their expense and have heightened their rhetoric accordingly.

It doesnâ€™t have to be this way. Although Iran and Israel will not be signing any mutual defense pacts anytime soon, the two countries arenâ€™t destined to be implacable foes. If anything, Israel could be a prime beneficiary of a rapprochement between Washington and Tehran.

It might sound inconceivable that Iran, whose leaders since 1979 have used the most venomous rhetoric against the â€œlittle Satan,â€ would ever moderate its stance toward Israel. Yet a careful review of the past three decades shows that Iranâ€™s hostile rhetoric is more a product of opportunism than fanaticism. Iran and Israel have even been willing to work together quietly at times, despite their conflicting ideologies.

The reason is simple: When forced to choose, Tehran invariably chooses its geostrategic interests over its ideological impulses. In no other area is the decisiveness of the strategic dimension of Iranâ€™s foreign policy clearer than when it comes to Israel. When these two pillars of Iranian foreign policy have clashed, as they did in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war, Iranâ€™s geostrategic concerns have consistently prevailed. Tehran quietly sought Israelâ€™s aid, and the Jewish state made many efforts to place Iran and the United States back on speaking terms. Faced with an invading Iraqi army and finding its U.S.-built weaponry starved of spare parts by a U.S. embargo, Tehran was in desperate need of help from Israel. Israel, in turn, was more than eager to avoid an Iraqi victory and to restore the traditional Israeli-Iranian clandestine security cooperation established under the shah, the mullahsâ€™ fierce anti-Israeli rhetoric notwithstanding.



The key to eliminating the danger Iran could pose to Israel lies in arranging these two forces of Iranian foreign policyâ€”strategic interest and ideologyâ€”to counter each other once again. Threats of war and sanctions cannot achieve this end, however. Only through a larger accommodationâ€”Iranian political rehabilitation in the region in return for an end to destructive Iranian behaviorâ€”will Iran let go of its open hostility toward the Jewish state. Brought in from the cold, Tehranâ€™s cost-benefit analysis would change dramatically. The Islamic Republic would be careful not to undermine its own geopolitical status with ideology-driven anti-Israeli and anti-American behavior.


But why would Iran seek serious negotiations now, opponents of diplomacy might ask, when it appears to be having its way in the Middle East? Because the Iranians are eager to consolidate their gains through talks with the next U.S. administration and win American recognition for their role in the region. Those who would reject dialogue cannot have it both ways. They canâ€™t argue that Washington shouldnâ€™t negotiate because it lacks leverage (which isnâ€™t trueâ€”for one, only the United States can lift its sanctions and support Iranâ€™s inclusion in a new regional security architecture) and simultaneously claim that Tehran prefers the status quo and isnâ€™t interested in talks precisely because Iran does have leverage.

In reality, the United States need not pressure Iran to come to the negotiation table; it need only demonstrate that it is serious about reaching a strategic understanding. What will induce Tehran to play ball is not a threat, but the promise of achieving a legitimate regional role without surrendering its pride. For Israel, that could be a good thing. A tamed Iranâ€”integrated into the regionâ€™s political and economic structures and the forces of globalizationâ€”is much less dangerous than an angry and isolated Iran that defends its interests by fanning the flames of anti-Israeli extremism in the region. Thatâ€™s a concept supporters of Israel and AIPAC should find useful.

2 thoughts on “Parsi: Israel would benefit from U.S. accommodation with Iran

  1. No one can say for certain who blew up the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in 1994, killing 80 people. However, the likeliest suspects are Hezbollah and Iranian advisors, acting in perceived retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a Hezbollah leader.

    The Hezbollah leader Imad Mugniyeh died in a car-bombing months ago. Hezbollah promised retaliation.

    There are (hopefully false) reports that Hezbollah agents are scouting Jewish sites in Canada and South America for targets to attack. Supposedly Hezbollah and Iran are not willing to attack the US and Israel directly for fear of retaliation.

    I hope that Hezbollah will not attack anyone in retaliation for the death of Mughniyeh, especially civilians. If it does then the US and or Israel should not overlook Hezbollah’s and Iran’s terrorism.

  2. Its a game of GO. Seemingly small changes can result in an entire flip of the game.

    With triangulation of powers (thank you George Orwell – one of the theses of 1984, that binary political relations are no longer the norm), the common enemy appeal flips around.

    Iran as common enemy (Saudi, US, Israel). Israel as common enemy (Saudi, Iranian). Iraq as common enemy (Iran, US, Israel even).

    In an triangular (or more sided) political world, NO alliance is permanent, except for those that are constructed of more substantive basis of alliance than common enemy.

    In that way, the “realism” of Walt/Mearsheimer is false (supporting Israel is not in US interests), in that they assess that “interest” in a relatively one-dimensional manner.

    Its as if I were to think of a friend as an enemy, just because he or she voted for a different candidate, or emphasized a different element of political math.

    Family ties are thicker. Friendship ties are thicker. Compassion for human beings is thicker. Not everyone remembers that.

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