WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT AUGUST 7, 2002 DISCUSSION: 1) Tropical waves continue to by-pass much of Gambia, Senegal and adjacent portions of Mali and Mauritania. This has resulted in little if any rainfall throughout July and so far in August, despite good rains in June. Furthermore, scorching temperatures have resulted in daily temperature anomalies of up to 10 deg C over the past 60 days. The combination of extreme heat and little rainfall has resulted in rapidly worsening drought conditions, with the worst conditions being observed across central Senegal. The potential for scattered showers exists during the period, with the best chance of measurable precipitation in the southern and eastern portions of the hazard area. However, the overall trend of easterly waves by-passing the region is expected to continue. As a result, the potential for significant relief during the period is very low. With the climatological wet season about half way over across the area, significant rains are needed very soon. 2) Rainfall during the past several weeks has been lighter than normal across portions of east- central Sudan. This has resulted in dryness which may stress crops across parts of the area. The potential for seasonal showers exists during the period. As a result, improvement is expected. 3) Dryness in recent years has resulted in poor pasture conditions and low water supplies across the Afar region of Ethiopia and southern portions of Eritrea. Recent rainfall across the region has resulted in some improvement, however several more weeks of steady rainfall are needed to replenish the pastures, wells and reservoirs across the area. Seasonal showers are expected across the area during the period. As a result, gradual improvement should continue. 4) Below normal rainfall during the past 3 to 6 months has resulted in dryness along the Kenya and Somalia coasts. Isolated showers are possible along the Kenya coast. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain mostly dry across the areas. 5) A drought during the last half of the 2001-02 rainy season has resulted in large moisture deficits across much of the Limpopo River Basin in southeastern Africa. This has reduced water availability to reservoirs, wells and rivers across the area. Major improvement is not expected until at least November, when the rainy season usually begins. Author: Chester V. Schmitt