ATFX News Update_Martin

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Tue, 20 Aug 2019, 10:55 AM


ATFX Market Update - 2018.12.14

Author:   |    Publish date:

Personal opinions today:
Last night, the ECB’s interest rate meeting announced that the European Central Bank decided to stop the LTRO program at the end of the year, but did not indicate any rate hike schedule, in line with market expectations. The ECB’s decision, first of all, means that the European economy has entered the economic recovery. It is not necessary for the central bank to continue to stimulate the monetary policy through the monetary policy. After the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting, the ECB Governor during the press speech and the central bank's European Central Bank's macroeconomic expectations indicated that in the face of various international trade war and economic challenges, the economic growth forecast will be lowered next year. The speech and expectations let the euro once lost its upward momentum and fell, reached 1.1330 support.
The British Prime Minister has decided not to submit the draft of the Brexit Agreement to the British Parliament until early next year. She will continue to discuss and solving the solution with the EU to avoid the market risk when the Brexit is officially launched. The news cooled the risk of Brexit in the short term and supported the rise of the pound. But the risks still exist, and we need to pay attention to future any related news and influence the development of the pound and euro.
Today, the market cares about the manufacturing purchasing managers' index PMl in the countries in the euro zone. The market is currently estimated to grow, and the euro is bullish. Final the results are very important for any European currencies. As the market expects to be 21:30 tonight, the US announced that retail sales in November fell from last month, slowing down from last month which means the market is expected to cause the dollar to fall. After the announcement, the US industrial production data also needs attention. If the overall economic data are weak, there is a chance to hinder the Fed’s rate hike decision and future monetary policy orientation next week, which will have a crucial impact on the US dollar.
Today's suggestion:
1.1385/1.1405 resistance
1.1335/1.1315 support
The European Central Bank decided to end the LTRO programs at the end of December, and will face tightening monetary policy and considering raising interest rates in the future. After the end of the United States to end the quantitative easing policy in 2013, it means the future will help the euro rise but needs to take some longer  time. But don't forget to comparison of short-term European and US economic data. Today, the market mainly expects European data to be better than US data, with a bullish euro a bit. Technically, the short-term resistance at 1.1405 in Euro.
1.2655/1.2680 resistance
1.2550/1.2525 support
The British Prime Minister can maintain her position, avoid British politics risky, and the short-term Brexit risk crisis will cool down. Minimum the downside risk. Technically, short-term, the key resistance of 1.2655 and 1.2680. As the risk of Brexit has not been lifted, pound still has a chance to look down to 1.2550 and 1.2525.
0.9955/0.9970 resistance
0.9915/0.9895 support
The market expects that the economic data released by the Eurozone today is better than the US retail sales data. It is expected to be bullish on euros. It is expected that the exchange rate of the euro will rise and indirectly benefit the Swiss franc. USD/CHF is likely to test technical support, with the first target of 0.9915 and 0.9895.
113.60/113.75 resistance
113.25/113.05 support
The market expects the US retail sales data to slow down. It also concerns that the Fed will raise interest rates next week. The short-term US Dow (US30) may fall, affecting the decline of the Nikkei (JP225). USD/JPY may fall as the relevant stock market declines, funds return to the yen, and the USD/JPY has a chance to fall. Pay close attention to the Japanese Nikkei and the US Dow during the day, it may be a signal to the momentum of the USDJPY.
0.7215/0.7230 resistance
0.7185/0.7170 support
The Sino-US trade climate has not yet made much progress. The market is worried that the two sides will not be able to improve the economy before the end of the year. In addition, US President Trump’s remarks indicated that it is possible to raise China’s import trade tariffs in January next year, affecting the Chinese economy and the China RMB decline. Moreover, copper prices continued to fall, indirectly negative for the Australian dollar. If it cannot be improved in the short term, the Australian dollar continues to bearish against the US dollar. Technically 0.7170 is the first support level.
0.6825/0.6840 resistance
0.6775/0.6760 support
The Sino-US trade war is once again tense, affecting the economy of the Asia-Pacific region and indirectly benefiting the New Zealand dollar. At present, the performance of the New Zealand dollar continues to follow the Australian dollar, and China RMB. If the Australian dollar or the China renminbi rises, it is believed that it can indirectly bullish on the NZD. The current support level of 0.6775 and 0.6760 is worth noting. If it falls below 0.6760, the trend will be further negative.
1.3400/1.3420 resistance
1.3345/1.3325 support
The rebound in oil prices has indirectly led to the trend of the Canadian dollar. But the market continues to wait for the Fed to raise interest rates next week, limiting the Canadian dollar's gains. At present, the US dollar rebounded after testing the 1.3340 against the Canadian dollar, and the trend may develop towards 1.3400.
0.9020/0.9040 resistance
0.8970/0.8955 support
The British Prime Minister can keep the status, the risk of Brexit is suspended, the pound is strong, and the euro is falling against the pound. If the technical support falls below 0.8955, the trend may fall further. Focus on the 0.9040 resistance in the short term.
1.1310/1.1335 resistance
1.1270/1.1255 support
Last night, the European Central Bank decided to raise interest rates, and the central bank plans to end the LTRO program at the end of the year to boost the euro. However, the Swiss National Bank did not have any monetary policy changes, and the Swiss franc was weak, which made the euro and the Swiss franc reached the resistance. Technical attention to the above suggested resistance and support range.
1245/1247 resistance
1239/1237 support
The British Prime Minister avoided the recall crisis, the risk of Brexit was suspended, the market risk aversion and risk were reduced, and the gold adjustment fell. Next week, the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to be about 64%, which is negative for gold. Short-term gold entered the adjustment. But pay close attention to market news and US Dow (US30) performance, beware of trading risks.
US crude oil futures:
53.65/54.00 resistance
52.15/51.55 support
Technically, it still pays attention to the short-term important resistance range of $53, which is expected by the trade war. It is estimated that the oil price is lower than the $54. Looking down the target range of $51.
3520 / 3750 resistance 
3120/ 2985  support 
As mentioned before, the US Fed could raise the interest rate, since the market expected the Fed interest rate keep hike, the bitcoin still have a chance fall. Technically, the important resistance at US3750, looking forward to lower US3000.


Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China



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