Hullllooooo, my dearest blog followers!
As you know, occasionally I invite authors to come and play on my blog. Sometimes it’s just a book blurb, or cover reveal, sometimes it’s an interview. Well, recently I asked fellow author Travis Luedke of the Nightlife Series to come for a visit. If some of you don’t know about the Nightlife Series, it features vampires (of the badass, non-sparkly variety), sex, violence, and sometimes smexy violence. And I say that with love. But, anyhoo, back to the point at hand, you know what this foolish man said to me?
“Ok… but make it lively.” – Travis Luedke
#Naughtycouch Ladies Interview Travis Luedke
(aka Travis gets what’s cumin to him)
[Parental discretion is advised, contains adult language and overt references to sex]
Gen: This interview won’t take long, my darlings, as I’ve asked a few of my girlfriends from the infamous #naughtycouch to help me keep it “lively”. Most of you know my go-to-girl on the couch, Bad Penny @Penelope_Prose, but I’d like to introduce you to a few more of #Naughtyville’s residents; Caroline, Cat, Beth, and Deidre known on Twitter as @CarolineD_13, @dbl_latte, @missb1331, and @laDeeDa51, respectively. When I asked them for help they all jumped at the chance to ask Travis some questions. Penny, very helpfully, suggested we do so while enjoying the festivities of summer. Don’t know about you, but here in the Midwest that means fairs and carnivals! That’s right, make yourselves comfortable because Travis will be “manning” the dunk booth. He will have to answer the questions truthfully and in a timely manner or he gets dunked. And to make sure he doesn’t chicken out–not that he ever would–we’ve tied him up. Naked. Sweet P, you can remove his gag now.
*Bad Penny chuckles and removes the ball gag.*
Travis: I don’t remember anything in your email that said I’d be naked! Or gagged. Or tied up–
*Gen ignores him and turns to Beth.*
Gen: Fantastic job with the Shibari knots, Beth!
Beth (blushing): Thanks, Cupcake. I wanted to try that particular design since I pinned it on Pinterest.
Gen: This makes a nice change of pace for some of us ladies, tying someone else up. But I’m not sure for Travis. That’s a great first question, come to think of it! Is this the first time you’ve been tied up, Travis?
Travis: Well, yes this is my first, and that rope is giving me a wedgy something fierce. Wait, does being handcuffed count as being tied?
*Gen lobs a ball and Travis goes down.*
Gen: Oh! Oops. Itchy trigger finger. My bad. My husband complains about that all the time! He’s all, easy there, Dirty Harry.
Travis: I don’t care about how dirty and harry you like your men, get me out of this water. This shit’s cold.
*The ladies all snicker while Penny pulls Travis back on the harness.*
Bad Penny: Let me do him… I mean it, Cupcake.
Gen: Oh, sure, he’s all yours. Caroline can have sloppy seconds.
*The #naughtycouch ladies all giggle. Travis groans.*
Bad Penny: Here’s my questions… Of all the characters you’ve written about, Travis, which one is your favorite, least favorite, aaaannnd why? Oh, and if you pick my favorite as your least favorite; I’ve got balls with your name on them.
*Bad Penny pretends to line a ball up with the target of the dunk tank and giggles like a mad woman.*
Travis: I got some balls with your name on ‘em girlfriend. Wait! Don’t throw it! Okay, characters. Let me see. Michelle is probably one of my favorite characters, because she’s so complex, twisted, loving, and yet so vicious and wicked. Most readers never really understand Michelle until the end of the third novel, Nightlife Paris. It’s in Paris where we learn the dark, gritty trials she survived during WWII. Michelle’s life until now has been very tragic, lonely, but all that changes with Aaron. She changes. My least favorite character would be Delia, Aaron’s ex-girlfriend. She’s a manipulator, petty, selfish, and has no real redeeming qualities. She strung Aaron along, playing his insecurities for her own malicious pleasure. Although many readers are shocked to learn what happens to Delia at the end of Nightlife New York, I feel like she got precisely what she deserved.
Bad Penny (licking her lips and fondling the ball): You know, Travis, the next time you feel like dishing out punishments—hey!
*Gen drags Penny back to the couch*
Gen: Caroline, you’re next.
*Caroline gets up and finger waves at Travis.*
Caroline: Ok, so my question to Travis, a few of your books are set in different locations. If you could pick a place to live out of them where would it be?
Travis: I think, ideally, I would choose to be a perpetual traveller. Stay in one city for 3-4 months, then move on. Each city, each country, has its own unique flavor, culture, and appeal. I would miss America at times, but then I’d come home and very quickly remember all those reasons I left. And there are many travels yet to come in the Nightlife Series: London, Moscow, Hong Kong, and perhaps Panama City (a sequel to Blood Slave).
Caroline: Why did you choose paranormal romance? Do you enjoy reading this genre? Wait… Is that two questions?
Travis: Yes, that is two questions, and I’m getting cold here. I think I might need someone to come warm me up, some warm hands, maybe a warm tongue?
*The girls snicker*
Travis: No? Just gonna sit there and stare at my junk while I shiver? I thought this was the #naughtycouch?
*Travis shakes his head as he looks down at his not-so-impressive display. Caroline raises the ball to throw it*
Travis: Paranormal Romance! … I guess I have no interest in anything normal in the way of fiction. If it’s violent, creepy, macabre, paranormal, and erotic, that pretty much hits all the happy buttons for me. And romance is the glue that binds everything together. All the great stories of the world have at least a touch of romance. Even in Greek, Hindu, and Judeo Christian mythology, the dynamics of romantic entanglements were ever present. Adam broke the rules for Eve, and he’d probably do it all over again if you gave him the chance. Helen of Troy’s romantic mess launched a thousand ships to sail across the Aegean. Is there anything worth reading that doesn’t involve romance?
Gen: Mnnn… nope.
*The girls shake their heads in agreement. Cat pops up*
Cat: Ehem, I have a question.
*Caroline elbows Cat.*
Caroline: It was my turn!
Cat: You already asked two questions!
*Cat and Caroline start tickle fighting. Beth runs over to break them up and they start tickling her, too*
Deidre and Penny: Someone needs a spanking!
*Travis grins and Gen lobs another ball at the switch. The girls stop fighting to point and laugh at wet Travis*
Travis: Ah, come on! Couldn’t you put a heater in this thing? Dunk me in a hot-tub? At least get me a couple shots of tequila. This is cold!
Gen: Oh, sorry, you looked like you were getting a little hot there. Penny and Dee, stop laughing!
*Gen hooks her arm in Beth’s and Caroline’s and they sit down.*
Gen: Don’t worry, girls, no one’s getting spanked, not even Travis.
*Bad Penny starts pouting and snuggles with Caroline on the couch. Gen plays with Deidre’s hair while Deidre massages Beth’s shoulders. Travis starts drooling*
Gen: Cat, it’s your turn.
Cat: Hi, Travis! I have read the first two books in the Nightlife series and loved, loved, loved Michelle. She appeals to my secret, hidden, inner domme–oops, did I just admit that…out loud?!! Shhh, don’t tell anyone!
*Cat turns around and vamps. The girls all giggle and stick their tongues out*
Cat (turning back to Travis): Is her character/personality based on anyone in your life or did you create her purely from your imagination?
Travis: Michelle can be very cavalier and flippant. And she has little respect for unworldly Americans that have yet to realize they are not God’s gift to the planet. I would be lying if I said I’d never met or dated a foreign woman like that. Truthfully, the inspiration for Michelle’s character came from a series of novels by Stephen Clarke, ‘A Year in the Merde’, and ‘Merde Actually.’ It’s a story of a British man fumbling through corporate Paris and his misadventures with French women. As I read those novels, I literally heard Michelle’s voice going off in my mind, cussing up a storm in French. I saw her careless Gallic shrug, and her smile that could entice a man out of both wallet and pants at the same time.
*When Cat keeps staring at Travis, Gen lobs a ball at her rear*
Gen: Cat, do you have another question for him?
Cat: Umm, let me think.
*Caroline jumps up from the couch and whispers in her ear*
Cat: Oh, good one, who is your favorite superhero, and if you were a superhero who would you be?
Travis: Okay, I admit, I am a bit of a comic book nerd. I watch all the superhero movies, sometimes more than once. Favorites? Don’t really have one, because so many of them are simply too cool for words. But, if I had the choice of being one particular superhero, I would probably go for Logan, a.k.a. Wolverine. He’s such badass. And its damn near impossible to kill him. He’s one tough S.O.B.
Caroline: Oh, I like that answer!
Cat: Me too!
*Cat and Caroline raise their hands to throw their balls at the same time*
Travis: Hey! You said you liked the answer!
*Travis sighs in relief as the balls bounce off the edge. Gen drags the girls back to the couch*
Gen: Beth, you’re up next.
Beth: Well, I don’t mind going easy on you, Travis. What is one scene from a book that was inspired by real life events?
Travis: There are several scenes in all my books that have been inspired by real life events: the ones where the guy screws the girl so hard she can barely walk, and she loved every last second of it.
*Travis winks. Beth raises her hand*
Travis: Don’t you dare throw that ball! Okay, Okay! Vegas! In the gambling scene in Vegas, I have actually used the numerical odds betting system that Aaron used. And believe it or not, it does work around 90% of the time, but only on Roulette and Baccarat. The other 10% of the time you lose your shirt.
*Travis winks again. Beth smiles and fondles the ball.*
Beth: What is the most blatant lie you ever told?
Travis: Ahh, that’s an easy one, but not very flattering: “I love you.” Those three words are perhaps the most abused words in the English language. We often think we mean it when we say it … but do we really?
*Beth lobs the ball and Travis goes down.*
Beth: I think I should get another. That was so obviously not true.
Travis: I love you! Now get me out of this water!
*The ladies all nod their heads at Beth and smirk at Travis.*
Beth: You have to wear a t-shirt with one word on it for the rest of your life. Which word do you choose?
Travis: Merde. It’s an all-purpose word in French which happens to cross over to Spanish as well. And it would seem an appropriate description of so many aspects of this life. Translation: Shit.
Beth: Speaking of, my ropes will need to be removed before you—
*Gen grabs Beth*
Gen: And last, but never least, Dee, it’s your turn!
Deidre: Okay… Probably not the naughtiest or best of questions. But with him being tied up and already so wet and that water is obviously cold…
*Everyone on the couch giggles*
Deidre: Stop it, you guys! The poor man.
*Deidre grins evilly*
Deidre: Travis, do you have a favorite scene that you’ve written, for whatever reason, and why?
Travis: I think my favorite scene was chapter two in Blood Slave, it’s a FF sex scene. When the female vampire, Lia, wets her finger and dips it in her vial of cocaine, and then slides it up between Hope’s legs … I live very vicariously through writing those scenes.
*The ladies start chanting: Dunk, dunk, dunk!*
Deidre (shaking her head): Not just yet, we know how Gen likes delayed gratification.
Bad Penny: Ooohhh–
Beth and Cat: Hee!
Gen (smacking at them): Tuh!
Deidre: Travis, did you make any one character have more of your own personal attributes, good or bad, and which one?
Travis: Sadly, it’s probably some of my villains that are closer to me in real life. But Aaron does tend to be a cynical-yet-endearing sort of smartass, and that could accurately describe one of my own multiple personalities.
*Deidre lobs the ball for one last dunk.*
*The girls all laugh. Gen and Beth pop up from the couch to start untying Travis. Cat and Caroline start whisper fighting about who gets to towel Travis off.*
Travis: Get this rope out of my crack, please and thank you. And ladies, got a naked guy here. Let’s do this #naughtycouch style.
Cat: Oh, we’ll show you #naughtycouch style, alright!
Deidre: Let’s put him in the kilt!
Bad Penny: Wait! Let me show you some fun gear I picked up at Tribal Fire…
Caroline: Dirty martinis, everyone?
*Beth opens a jar of olives*
Gen: Ok, my lovely blog followers! That’s it for today because the guy I got the booth from has to get it back to the Fair…
Bad Penny: I thought you said it fell off the back of a truck?
Gen (clearing her throat): Anyhooo, thank you for joining us today as we interviewed Travis. Please check out his books and social media links below!
AUTHOR BIO AND LINKS
TW Luedke is a husband, father, and writer of Urban Fantasy Thriller, Paranormal Romance, Young Adult Fiction, and Sci-fi. He is currently catching a 3rd degree sunburn in San Antonio, Texas, and loving every minute of it.
Social Media links:
Facebook author page https://www.facebook.com/pages/TW-Luedke/231016383686967


4 fine south london bands…
the windmill is the strangest and loveliest venue in london, no doubt. a scout hut-pub in the middle of an estate – why aren’t there more of these?
good point- altho i reckon there are a few nice venues for live music, they just tend to be a bit hidden away. the ivy house in peckham’s pretty sweet for music and atmosphere too!
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Blueberries, bikes and business in Lake George
Sixty pies and 37 bikes were gone in a flash as Lake George's 29th annual Blueberry Festival attracted hundreds of spectators.
But blueberries themselves, the star of the show, were scarce commodities. Some blamed flukey weather, some blamed a late frost.
And some blamed the bears.
The senior citizens pie sale was a potpourri of berries, not all blue, but all luscious.
The kids carnival attracted more than 200, according to organizer Deb Manz. A record 37 bikes were donated for a giveaway to kids who registered.
"I just can't believe this," said Angie Johnson of Lakeville, whose son Eric won a bike. She proposed a "pay it forward" program, for winners this year to donate next year to keep the tradition alive.
Colton Brandenburg of Park Rapids won his first bike, a dinky model that fit the 3-year-old perfectly.
Hundreds crowded into the fire hall for the annual Saturday night bean feed, only to return early Sunday for the pancake breakfast.
Hubbard County commissioner Cal Johannsen has been flipping monster flapjacks for years. John Davis of Nevis groaned at the weight of the breakfast on his plate, then dug in.
Merchants and outside vendors did a brisk business.
Justin Bessler, co-owner of The Woodland Store, said this summer was turning out much better for the tiny community than last year.
"That government shutdown really hurt us," he said.


nutrition and hydration. So this is what happened. I got laid off earlier this week, and once again I kind of fell into panic mode, eating less food and probably not drinking enough water. Since I usually donate plasma when things get a little sketchy and the money might be running slow, I went and donated as well on Tuesday. If you don’t know what donating plasma is like, you basically get your body drained for 30 bucks and sent on your way. It can be quite lucrative if you maintain a good schedule, but leading a physically active life can put a damper on doing it too often. Either way, my calves were pretty bad for a couple days, for I skipped out on doing anything on Thursday and just simply drank water like there was no tomorrow. I should have known better. I should have been taking care of myself a little better this week. And the moment my calves went bad was a moment I didn’t expect. Here I was on Wednesday, doing a whole bunch of leg exercises, and then Jon puts me through the ringer by having me do some back squats. I want to get better at them in regards to weight, but that day Jon had me work the bar for speed rather than weight. I pounded out 65 total reps at various weights, feeling more than confident. And then I had to do some work on the monkey bars, and that is when the calf seized up. I managed to get through the rest of the workout, but I knew my failures had nothing to do with the gym and all to do with my personal life.
Personally, I’m glad I didn’t start the two-a-day idea I was hoping to implement this week, reserving it for next week instead. Its not just the fact you are hurting, the psychological blow that is placed on you is quite unbelievable. Take my last Ragnar for instance. I got so flummoxed about my last run of the day that I nearly psyched myself out from the worry and the preparation. And then I did, killing my run in good time and in the heat of the day no less. I was pretty scared to do anything on Thursday, and I finally opted to do a run on Friday evening. I hadn’t run all week, and so doing 5.15 miles wasn’t too bad on my body. But the best news was the fact I didn’t cramp up again, even though the cloud cover I initially started running in turned into the bright of day and the wind was fast and hard enough to make my muscles work harder than normal. Sheer will got me through. But probably just as important as the desire to run that distance is the fact that I didn’t try to kill myself for a perceived shortcoming.
Instead of worrying, I sought to drink more water and eat better food. Sure, I wasn’t munching on any PHOD bars or such, but I did eat some good beans and ate a healthy combination of quinoa and rice. Come to think of it, I wish I did have some PHOD bars this week. I’m kind of hunkering for some Pro-Nuts! Anyway, I also got plenty of sleep and rest over the course of Thursday and Friday night, which is pretty easy when your main goal over the course of a few days is sitting at your desk, looking for a new job and such. But sleep was the biggest help, for I was actually going to bed early and the weather was fairly cool, meaning my patterns were not disrupted for once! I will admit to you all, sometimes the recovery part is not something I excel in. I stay up too late playing online games, or I stay up to late watching old movies in my massive DVD collection or I just work out to often and too much. If I hadn’t been slacking off so often on the sleep, I might even have some better gains. But let me tell you one thing, even though you are working out everyday and seeing some massive changes, the gains can happen just as well when you get the rest you need!
Take for example my hang cleans. Last week I could barely get under 185 pounds. This week, even after doing a whole bunch of reps and various exercises, I nearly got it up to my shoulder. If I had been able to get my elbows up, I might have actually complete the movement. But alas, I was tired. I did manage to break my old standard by doing 175 pounds, but I probably tired myself out by doing that weight. In fact, my hang cleaning is starting to become second nature, for the hope of breaking 200 pounds by the end of the summer might be a real possibility. It has certainly helped my dead lifting out, for I had no problem doing a little circuit work on it, plowing through eight reps at 205, six at 255, four at 275 and then four more at 295. Having experienced the fruits of my labor in the gym on Saturday, I kind of took note just how important resting is. Now I have always been something of an idiot when it comes to the recovery phase, mainly because of my inane desire to lose weight and become a little more aesthetic. My goals are not necessarily the problem, but my habits could definitely be a little bit of a short coming in the recovery side of training. http://sportsmedicine.about.com/od/sampleworkouts/a/RestandRecovery.htm
This was probably the best article I saw on the subject, and I got to tell you, I rarely if ever follow any of these ideas. Fortunately, I have Jon and the good people at Parsons Training to help me manage my workouts, so not focusing on one area too much is not a problem for me as well as managing good stretching and cool down techniques. Honestly, without them, I would be doing curls to infinity and doing crazy workouts that are perfect for Gym Fails. Without fail, my ultimate obstacle is sleep and rest, and I have to start doing more of that. You see, when you rest and let your body calm down from the hell you put it through in the gym, you are giving yourself time to actually repair the damage. Tiny tears in your muscle are being caused due to the workout, and as your body fixes these tears, your muscle becomes bigger and stronger due to the space being filled. If you keep tearing the hell out of your muscles and not let them recover, you are doing yourself a disservice by creating muscle fatigue and killing your potential. Though I will say, my arm definition is getting a little better, for my triceps are actually starting come a little!
Anyway, back to the gym! So its quite obvious that I was making some good gains, for I blasted through deadlifts without a problem, beat my personal best in the hang clean and busted hump consistently for a good 75 minutes. I wasn’t playing with my phone or flirting with the women that didn’t want my unwanted advances or even trying to work on my selfie game. Even with all of this happening and me looking good all the while, Jon was still getting on my case about my hang cleans. First and foremost, I pretty much jumped right into it, doing very little preparation and not even doing any practice runs with the bar or some low weight like 75-95 pounds. I just went right into it! Since I also had to do a squat for this movement as well, I was instantly burning up calories as I jumped in weight from 135 all the way to 175. But like any good trainer or teacher, Jon kept pointing out my folly in the lack of prep. “You could have hit that 185 if you had warmed up properly.” Now I will admit, I get pretty gung-ho when it comes to the Olympic lifts. It’s “man” contest for me that I am trying to win, so I often times skip out on the essential and important stuff that is necessary. But I’m actually kind of hindering my own performance. http://www.fitnesshealth101.com/fitness/weight-training/beginners/warm-up
The worst thing you can do for yourself going into a workout is going in cold. Perhaps this is a the reason why my right deltoid has been causing so many troubles for me over the last couple weeks, for the soreness might have been a result of me not warming my body up enough and then going straight into some exercise. Now I know some of you don’t want to hear this, but doing a little work on the treadmill or doing some extremely light warm-up weights can be very good for you. First of all, you body is moving, which means you have now increased your blood flow and created a chain reaction within your system. When this happens, your muscle become much more elastic, giving you a much better range of emotion and giving you a better chance at performing. Much like a furnace, as your body starts burning up the glycogen stores, your energy starts building up and allows you to power through movements at a much higher speed. What happens when you don’t warm up properly? Since you’re body is stationary as opposed to “rolling downhill,” you will expend much more energy to restart the engine. Avoiding injury is extremely important, because how else are you going to be work hard in the gym if you keep messing your body up? Food for thought indeed. And then there is the issue with the heart. As you warm up, your blood vessels will dilate and allow you to pump blood much more efficiently. Rather than shocking the heart with say 20 deadlifts, doing some light cardio to get the body moving will help in your performance and recovery time between sets.
There are plenty of other good reasons to warm up, like getting the body temperature up to induce sweating and allowing your body to increase the secretion of hormones to aid in your workout. I guess I am going to have to stop being so lazy about the warm-up faze in my workout. I mean, I started doing al the exercises the various trainers at Parsons showed met fix up my foot and my running gait, and it seems to be working just fine. Either way, hubris is most likely the reason why I never warm-up much anymore. When you think you are as awesome as I am, it can get to your head. Let’s face it, yesterday I found out I have lost some 16.5 inches off my stomach since the day I started at Parsons Training. That’s basically the circumference of one of the bumper plates I lift. That’s about the size of a pizza I used to shovel down! Heck, in the last few months, despite dropping only seven pounds, I have dropped about three inches. Granted, another Parsons client kind of one-upped me by losing four inches over the course of a year (way to go Krista!), it still proves that even though you don’t feel like your are making progress, you actually are!
About Parsons Training
Parsons Training is a Tucson leader in fitness and personal wellness training. Every personal trainer with this company designs and implements effective fitness programs for their clients; these programs serve as the foundation for good health, fitness, and wellness. Additional information about Parsons Training is available at http://www.parsonspersonaltraining.com
Any views or opinions presented in this blog are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the company.
About Our Blog
Steve, a Parsons Training Client, went from 400 pounds to Running half-marathons, from lifting pizzas to lifting hundreds of pounds through training with us.
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This photo is a lie.
(And obviously a proof from MarathonFoto...)
Don't let the beautiful sunny day, scenery, and smile fool you. Notice my feet. See how they aren't very far apart, and the front one isn't very high off the ground, and my knees are barely bent?
This is how I spent most of the race on Saturday. This is not the recommended running form.
This one is pretty accurate.
I'm trying to unzip my SPI belt here to get some nutrition. It was an ordeal.
See, I hadn't been feeling very well all last week. My stomach was just...off. I blame the Cupcake wine I decided to drink on Monday and Tuesday. I'd never had it before and probably never will again. On Thursday, after two uncomfortable mornings, I decided to try and reverse the course of things in my body by eating an entire baguette. I guess I overcompensated. Let's just say, without getting into unnecessary details, that by the time I flew to Chicago (ball of nerves right here) and ate a whole plate of pasta at the pre-race pasta party Friday night, my stomach was not happy with me. Good thing I only had to run 13.1 miles the next morning!...
Result: the worst race of my life. The first two miles went swimmingly...a little too swimmingly. I started with two girls from our team who finished around the same time as me at the Brooklyn Half, so naturally we thought our paces would match each other nicely this time too. They were going a little fast for me for the beginning of a race, though - about 9:40. Then had to take a little potty break at the second mile - something that never happens to me.
"I'll catch up!" I said cheerily...oh sweet naive Kaitlin...
I ended up with quite a setback thanks to that little break. But I was feeling better. And I had told myself I didn't care about getting a PR this time - it was about the charity and the trip this time, I said. So I stopped and took this lovely picture.
This was the last happy moment until the finish line. The rest of the race - despite the beautiful course and seriously perfect weather - was miserable. I felt so sick, and because of that I was apparently "running" awkwardly, because when I finally started to feel better around mile 10 and tried to actually get running, I felt like someone was squeezing my hip flexors and quads and literally holding me back.
I just kept telling myself that my time didn't matter, that this was about raising money for CCFA, and being in Chicago, which was really beautiful, and that I everyone has off days, and only 9 miles left...only 5 miles left...only 3 miles left...
I finished in 2:31, according to my dad, who looked up my time because I didn't want to. Let me just say before I continue, I know that's not a bad time for a half marathon. But over the last year, every time I raced, I beat my previous time for that distance. I PR'd in every 5K, 10K and half I did in 2012 and 2013 (after the first ones, of course).
Was it realistic to think this trend would continue indefinitely? Of course not. But I did so well in Brooklyn, I thought I could at least do a minute faster this time. And I'm embarrassed by this now, but I have to admit it - I cried a little. My stomach hurt so bad and I disappointed myself so much.
But then I looked around at all of the other orange shirts in the recovery area, including a few of my teammates who have Crohn's and ulcerative colitis, and remembered why I was really there. This wasn't about my selfish goal, or my stomach cramps. This was about supporting research to find a cure for these diseases, which wreak havoc on people's digestive systems, sometimes making them unable to eat, sleep, work or lead normal lives. How ironic. I was complaining about my silly, normally healthy stomach while racing to find a cure for stomach diseases!
That was more embarrassing than not running as quickly as I had hoped! So I sucked it up, congratulated everyone on a job well done, got stretched out by the PT folks and spent the rest of the day walking around with everyone and enjoying the city. And now that I'm back, I'm re-motivated by my little bout of selfishness and all of the selfLESSness I saw in my friends to continue raising money for CCFA.


Do you speak English? If you do, then we have got some great news for you! Today, English is one of the most popular languages in the world. It is pretty much safe to say that English is spoken in every single country that there is, and rest assured that Europe is no exception to this. As you can see, English is spoken in pretty much every European country, which is great news for anyone who is planning to visit Europe soon. Don’t get us wrong, there are some very patriotic countries in Europe (such as France), but even they are friendly enough to welcome you in English.
Okay, now that we got that out of the way, here is a piece of advice for you. Even if you are a native English speaker, it is always nice to greet people in their native language. Regardless of whether or not you actually speak a certain language, you can always go online and learn some basic words and phrases. For example, by greeting someone with a simple ”Hello!” in their native language, you show them that you respect their culture and language, and because of that, they will respect and love you even more.
One thing that makes Europe so good is the fact that you don’t have to cross any borders. Although getting new stamps for your passport is always a fun experience, it just cannot be compared to the feeling of freedom that you get when you don’t have to show your passport at all. That being said, welcome to the United States of Europe! See what we did there?
Europe Is a Pretty Safe Place
If you are going to visit Europe soon, you are a very lucky person. Not only are you going to experience some beautiful places, but you are going to feel safe throughout the entire trip as well. This is because the crime level in Europe is pretty low. Of course, you still need to be careful, but generally speaking, you should be okay.
People Are Very Friendly
The people of Europe are usually very friendly. They are more than willing to welcome you to their country, regardless of your religion, skin color, or gender. Be nice to them, and they will do their best to ensure that you feel good during your visit.


All Posts Tagged With: "hair smoothing cream"
GET THE LOOK: Love Avatar star Zoe Saldana’s hairdo at the 2010 Golden Globes? Talking Makeup got the scoop and the hair tutorial on how to recreated it at home!
Even in the rain, Zoe Saldana shined! TRESemme celebrity stylist Mara Roszak created soft curls for the fierce star. See below steps on how to recreate the look:
1. Starting with damp hair, apply TRESemme 24 Hour Body Foaming Mousse, and part hair to one side (slightly off center). Blow dry with a small round brush.
2. Spray a soft hold hairspray all over head, like TRESemme 24 Hour Body Finishing Spray, and curl 1″ sections using a 1″ barrel curling iron. Let hair twist as your wrap, and pin to scalp.
3. Let the hair sit in pin curls for at least 10 min. Take out pins, and brush delicately, without a lot of tension to keep the shape.


It’s been GSoC season for over a month now and I haven’t blogged, so now I’m going to try to fix that. After last year’s Multilevel playlist sorting project, one of my proposals has been accepted again for GSoC 2010: I’m going to implement on-the-fly transcoding in Amarok.
Amarok is a music player and manager built around very general concepts of tracks and media sources. The collection tries to decouple the format from the data itself and presents the music as tracks (with metadata) rather than files. In other cases, music isn’t even stored in local files. These concepts, and others, allow one to truly rediscover music through seamless internet sources and media devices integration, and the user in fact doesn’t have to care where the actual data comes from. The many sources at one’s fingertips are accessible in a consistent way and playable from the playlist.
However, even in this day and age of stuff in the cloud, there are situations in which the user still has to worry about media formats, e.g. when acquiring new music, or copying existing music from one collection to another or from the collection to a portable music player. That’s where transcoding kicks in.
For example, one might have a quantity of Windows Media Audio files that should be transcoded to a more Free format in order to be usable in the future, or a quantity of Monkey’s Audio files, which, while lossless, are not well supported everywhere, especially in PMPs. And then of course, even if someone has a collection full of FLAC files, which is a reliable and Free codec, a conversion into a lossy format such as Ogg Vorbis or MP3 might be necessary for use with a PMP simply for reasons of storage capacity.
So my idea is this: whenever the user can copy files, give him or her the choice to either just copy, just transcode or transcode with custom options. That way, we cover both of the following use cases:
- “I’m running late for a 4 hour train ride and I haven’t updated the music collection on my portable player, I need to quickly copy over my tunes while making sure they will compatible with the portable player”
- “if I tweak the quality rating of the Vorbis encoder exactly the way I want it I’m going to save 1% of the space on my portable music player and still get the audio quality my sensitive ears deserve”.
The current situation is that the transcoding operation (in the strictest possible sense) works, so the next thing I have to do is integrate it nicely with Amarok’s existing collections framework. The current implementation uses FFmpeg, but I’ve placed FFmpeg-specific stuff in a wrapper class so something else could quite easily be used in the future if need arises.
The following screenshot represents the current state of the still quite unfinished transcoding GUI.
On a somewhat unrelated note, I’ve been to the KDE Multimedia+Edu sprint in Randa, Switzerland.
It was a lot of fun and very productive too. I wish to thank the whole organizers team. Special thanks go to Mario Fux for his mad organizational skills, to the cooking team which I had the pleasure to share the kitchen with while preparing vegan stuff and to Knut Yrvin for arranging a much needed meeting with the Brisbane office of Nokia, Qt Development Frameworks regarding QtMultimedia and the future of Phonon. Finally, thanks Anne-Marie Mahfouf for a gift she gave me which allowed me to taste again something I like very much but haven’t been able to eat because of nickel allergy.


Strategic Directions | Feature
Who Creates Coherence in the College Experience?
A Q&A with AAEEBL President Trent Batson
Higher education leaders are investing in strategies and technologies that can help make the college experience more relevant for a diverse population of students in today's challenging economic and rapidly changing global/societal environment. But it doesn't stop there. CT asked Trent Batson, President of AAEEBL (The Association for Authentic, Experiential and Evidence-Based Learning) what will allow students to make sense of their own education, connect it with their priorities beyond the classroom, and finally put learners in charge of their own learning.
Mary Grush: Will the current and increasing focus by higher education leadership on areas like personalization, learning outcomes, learning analytics, and new degree pathways make the college experience more relevant for students, and put learners more "in charge" of their own learning?
Trent Batson: You mention personalization. That's a broad and longer-term trend — one that may be difficult to define at this point in time, especially given differing priorities in various countries. One of the things personalization refers to (at least in part) is students becoming more active in their own learning. Of course that's a good goal. But again, this is still a developing trend…
An article examining "personalization" I noticed recently showed students using intelligent tutors in problem-based learning. Clearly, the researchers involved understood that when students are given a chance to do problem solving — not just memorizing "answers" — they do improve. However, in the end, the students were evaluated with multiple-choice tests — not really a true measure of the understanding or application of their learning.
Grush: And not really a big step towards putting learners in charge of their own learning?
Grush: What about the impact of learning analytics and learning outcomes? How are they poised to make learning more relevant for the learner?
Batson: Many institutions are thinking very intelligently about learning analytics, and about tracking learning outcomes, and about seeing that each course is tied in to some overall learning goal, in the program, or in the major, or in the overall college experience.
The move to create learning outcomes arises from a general atmosphere of accountability and, presumably, from a need to make the curriculum coherent across courses and programs. Along with this, higher education is responding also to the general call for it to produce graduates with 21st century skills and habits of mind.
The AAC&U Essential Learning Outcomes — https://www.aacu.org/leap/vision.cfm — describe intellectual and personal qualities that would seem to predict success in life. But the ongoing question of relevance for the learner becomes, will the move to create greater and greater coherence in the curriculum, aligned with learning outcomes appropriate to this century, mean that learning will improve and college graduates will experience greater success in finding work? And then succeed in that work?
Grush: If colleges and universities do better in creating coherence — the kind you just talked about — will that make education more relevant for the learner?
Batson: I would look at that question very carefully. First I would ask, even with learning outcomes and the attempt to create greater coherence, is higher education simply doing more of what it has always done — and that is no longer working — namely, creating pre-digested knowledge? Faculty in higher education have generally done most of the learning work. Now, with the move to learning outcomes, are they simply doing more of the learning work? Actually, I think so.
Then who really should be doing the work of creating coherence? This means creating coherence not just within a single course but across a college career. And, it means coherence not just from formal learning but all learning.
Grush: From that last point, it sounds like only the student is in the position to create such coherence.
Batson: Bingo! This is not to say that students should be on their own — it only means that faculty ask questions, not provide answers; faculty present problems, not solutions; and faculty ask students to create coherence in a course or course of study.
There is a lot of right thinking in colleges and universities today, in terms of wanting students to have a clearer picture of structures in place — students can, for instance, look at learning outcomes themselves, and then they can at least possibly make better choices about their own learning pathways, in line with their own priorities.
But giving the job of creating coherence to students goes far beyond that.
Grush: I know you're not suggesting that colleges and universities abandon work on personalization, new learning pathways, learning outcomes, analytics, and other efforts to make education more relevant for the learner. Still, how can higher education hand the job of creating coherence to students?
Batson: One way that, increasingly, we know works, is to provide a mechanism, an instrument to assist students in creating coherence from course to course, from experience to experience, and from year to year. The electronic portfolio is that instrument. Saving, archiving, and curating evidence of work over time and producing Web sites that integrate evidence of disparate learning experiences over time is a true work of creating coherence. This is reflective and integrative thinking, the hallmark of good ePortfolio practice.
The most important quality to learn today — especially for younger college students who will eventually change jobs on average every three years — is learning how to learn. This is a time that demands that learners be active in their own learning, that they own their own learning, that they be responsible for their own learning, and that they be at stake for their own learning. ePortfolios are owned by the student, and stay with the student. They are the tools that will help students tell the story of their learning, reflect on relevance over time, and create coherence. Then, learners will truly be in charge of their own learning.
[Editor's note: AAEEBL will hold a regional event co-located with the Campus Technology Forum in Long Beach, CA April 8-9; and AAEEBL's annual conference will again be co-located with the annual Campus Technology conference in Boston, July 28-31.]


> what about mask or hat? BTW, what's the diferrence of helm and helmet?
A mask would be ok. I could add it, although I'm not sure if oriental masks (the only I know of being used in military affairs) were used as protection or simply as fear-factor.
The helm and helmet are not different, at least from what I know. The two words are so common though that I decided to add them both so you can find a Knight's Helmet of Vision and a Broken Helm of the Giants.
Excellent! Thanks. My footwear list was too short


Shooting Near West Side Green Line Station Leaves One Hurt
Featured & Trending:
Latest News Headlines:
CHICAGO (STMW) – A male was wounded in a Tuesday afternoon shooting near a West Side CTA station.
The victim was shot in the foot about 3:20 p.m. in the 100 block of North California Avenue, police News Affairs Officer Daniel O’Brien said, citing preliminary information.
The shooting happened about a block south of the California Green Line station.
The victim, whose age was not immediately known, refused medical treatment and was uncooperative on the scene, police said.
Area Central detectives are investigating.
© Sun-Times Media Wire Chicago Sun-Times 2012. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.


As part of the Johnson & Johnson Family of Diabetes Companies, Animas is dedicated to creating a world without limits for people with diabetes through a wide range of products, including the OneTouch® Ping® Glucose Management System, and the Animas® 2020 insulin pump. Animas, from the Latin word meaning “true inner self or soul,” has been committed since 1996 to meeting individual patient needs through the development of life-performance technology and customer service 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. Animas is pleased to be a sponsor of the 2012 Regional Conference Series. To learn more about Animas, visit www.animas.com.
JDRF is the leading global organization focused on type 1 diabetes (T1D) research. Driven by passionate, grassroots volunteers connected to children, adolescents, and adults with this disease, JDRF is now the largest charitable supporter of T1D research. The goal of JDRF research is to improve the lives of all people affected by T1D by accelerating progress on the most promising opportunities for curing, better treating, and preventing T1D. JDRF collaborates with a wide spectrum of partners who share this goal. In addition to our research funding and leadership, JDRF’s outreach efforts provide practical support and resources for people with type 1 diabetes and their families every step of the way as they live with T1D. JDRF is proud to support CWD's 2012 Regional Conference Series. For more information, visit the JDRF website at www.jdrf.org, or call 800-533-CURE.
LifeScan is committed to creating a world without limits for people with diabetes. Through our industry-leading OneTouch® products and support, we are able to provide patients and healthcare professionals with a comprehensive system to assist with blood glucose management. At OneTouch®, we provide accurate and reliable products – inside every OneTouch® Ultra® Blue Test Strip is DoubleSure™ technology that automatically checks each blood sample not once, but twice. So you’re not just sure of the test result, you're DoubleSure™. We understand that the more confident you and your child are with your results, the more you can focus on living your life. OneTouch®, an early supporter of Children With Diabetes, is proud to be a sponsor of the 2012 regional conference Series.
Novo Nordisk is dedicated to improving the lives of individuals with diabetes. For nearly 80 years, the company has combined drug discovery with state-of-the-art technology to develop leading edge products for people with diabetes. Novo Nordisk was the first to develop longer-acting NPH insulin, purified insulin, and premixed human insulin. Novo Nordisk also designed the first durable and disposable insulin pen devices and the first dial-a-dose insulin delivery system. Novo Nordisk recently added a rapid-acting human insulin analog, NovoLog® (insulin aspart [rDNA origin] injection) as another treatment option for people with diabetes. Novo Nordisk is proud to be a sponsor of the 2012 CWD Regional Conference Series.
Roche, the maker of ACCU-CHEK® products, is a global leader in diabetes care. As such, we’re proud to offer a portfolio of blood glucose monitoring and insulin pump systems that are designed to be accurate, convenient, easy to use and trusted by millions of people worldwide. In addition, our ACCU-CHEK Connect program offers tips, tools and support for both people with diabetes and healthcare professionals to encourage patient engagement and enable behavior and therapy change. Our 24-hour ACCU-CHEK Customer Care Center provides access to prompt, compassionate care from specialists who are rated #1 in customer satisfaction. To learn more about ACCU-CHEK products and the ACCU-CHEK Connect program, visit www.accu-chekconnect.com. Roche is proud to support CWD's 2012 regional conference series.
Sanofi-Aventis is pleased to be a sponsor of the 2012 CWD Regional Conference Series.
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Last Updated: Sunday May 13, 2012 15:24:44
This Internet site provides information of a general nature and is designed for educational purposes only. If you have any concerns about your own health or the health of your child, you should always consult with a physician or other health care professional.
This site is published by T-1 Today, Inc. (d/b/a Children with Diabetes), a 501c3 not-for-profit organization, which is responsible for its contents.
© Children with Diabetes, Inc. 1995-2015. Comments and Feedback.


Recipients will receive a 50% reduction in their student contributions (tuition fees) for up to four years of full-time study.
The RTP scholarships (previously APA) are funded by the Australian Government, while the DUPR scholarships are funded by Deakin University.
The Scholarship provides financial support to recipients which may be used to assist with general living and educational expenses.
Scholarships are available to students graduating from a Swinburne bachelor program who apply to study a master by coursework program at Swinburne in 2017.
If you are living with a disability where technology may assist you with your studies, this grant kindly donated by the St Carthage’s Church Parkville parish congregation provides the purchase of that assistive technology.
Australian Federation of Graduate Women Inc. (AFGW) and its State and Territory Associations place the highest priority on providing financial assistance for women to undertake university studies.


For those who don’t know me, I’m part of the Strategic Accounts team at Intuit. As a Business Development Manager, I spend my life helping accountants help their small business clients. I’ll often tell my partners that while they are supposed to be their clients’ trusted advisor, I will be their trusted advisor when it comes to selecting different solutions (like QBO and the 3rd party apps that make up the QBO ecosystem).
One of my favorite things about my job is getting to hear stories from my partners about their clients. From taking small businesses on the brink of failure and turning them into profitable, successful, thriving customers, to helping them implement technology that automates some of the most daunting, manual, tedious tasks. The pride my accountants take in helping their clients is obvious, and I, in turn, am proud too.
The consistent theme in most of the stories I hear is that small business owners are always best at one thing: running their small business. They’re not accountants. They’re not bookkeepers. QuickBooks Online was designed with the small business owner in mind, but the thing that makes QBO most powerful, is an accountant.
I often compare it to handing someone a bunch of tools and telling them “go build a house”. Of course, with enough time, research, and effort, just about anything could be accomplished, but why would someone with no homebuilding experience choose to build a house? Instead, by finding a contractor, they can ensure that they do everything properly – the first time – and be confident that their end result will be a beautiful, sturdy, safe home.
I recently had lunch with one of my firms, who shared a story about a client that absolutely touched my heart, and was such a great reminder that finding the right accountant is critical. My partner got a message through Intuit’s Find a ProAdvisor site asking for help with some pretty urgent tax issues with their family business. However, the message was entirely in Spanish. My partner doesn’t speak any Spanish, but luckily, his wife (who works part time for the firm doing Social Media) is fluent. After she saw the message, it was obvious what needed to be done. She drafted a message back for my partner to send, and the next week they all met to discuss the situation.
Apparently, this family had reached out to several ProAdvisors in the Southern California area with no luck, as the family didn’t speak English and weren’t able to find a Spanish-speaking advisor to assist. They were desperate, and had finally come to the right place. With his wife translating, my partner was able to onboard the client, help them through this crisis, and retain them as an ongoing bookkeeping and tax customer – simply because he was able to think outside the box, and show this business that he cared about their success. He proudly related to me that the family’s business was completely turned around, and that they were beyond thrilled to be partnering with his firm.
Going back to the construction analogy, I tend to think of QBO and the apps ecosystem as tools, and my accountants are the contractors. So as a business owner, don’t forget that just because you have the tools, doesn’t mean you’ll know how to use them. Remember that your strength is in running your business, not in tracking debits and credits. And as an accountant, what are you doing to be the right accountant for your clients? Are you making an effort to learn their business, or going the extra mile to remind them how much you care? At the end of the day, there are lots of contractors out there, but only the right one will be able to help you build your dream house.


Ten years after the financial crisis, the global economy and financial markets could be entering a new era of potentially radical change that will make the next decade look very different from the last. Investors who assume that the future will resemble the post-crisis past could be in for a series of rude awakenings. Rather, we want to be prepared for the challenges ahead and to be in a position to play offense when these awakenings eventually occur.
The post-crisis global environment has been characterized by financial repression (via regulation and dominant central banks), mostly passive or restrictive fiscal policies, weak growth in productivity and real wages, subdued inflation, largely uninhibited trade and capital flows, and low macro and market volatility. Meanwhile, aggregate global debt levels have continued to rise.
Over the secular horizon, we expect a very different macro landscape to emerge, for better or worse. Important shifts are already underway: The monetary-fiscal policy mix is changing as central banks retreat and fiscal policy becomes more expansionary, the regulatory discussion is moving from the financial to the tech sector, and economic nationalism and protectionism are on the rise.
One way the real economy could break out from the post-crisis lull on a sustainable basis is through a significant pickup in productivity growth as the diffusion of new technologies finally accelerates via stronger business investment. However, stronger potential growth would likely also produce higher real interest rates.
Another scenario that could come to pass in (or after) the next recession, which we expect to occur at some point over the next three to five years, is a more extreme populist backlash than seen thus far. This could come in different flavors: radical income and wealth redistribution, more aggressive protectionism, nationalization of key companies or even industries, or attacks on central bank independence.
A forum for the long view
Earlier in May we held PIMCO’s annual Secular Forum, and as always our focus was to identify the key economic and political forces that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next three to five years.
To guard against groupthink and broaden our horizon, we welcomed six distinguished invited speakers, listened to fresh ideas from our newest class of MBAs and PhDs, and engaged in active debate with our Global Advisory Board and among our investment professionals from around the globe. One key absence this year was Richard Clarida, our global strategic advisor who has been leading our Secular Forum process over the past five years and also prepared the agenda for this year’s forum; he was nominated recently to serve as Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
To set the stage, we briefly reviewed our conclusions from the May 2017 Secular Forum. Back then, we prognosticated that over the longer-term horizon, the global economy would undergo five significant pivots in the direction and scope of monetary, fiscal, trade, geopolitical and exchange rate policies. In a world of Insecure Stability (which was the theme of our 2016 Secular Forum), these five policy Pivot Points would test markets and could lead to a repricing of risk. In fact, looking back over the past year since the May 2017 forum, we have already seen important gyrations on all five fronts:
- The Fed started to run down its balance sheet, the European Central Bank inched closer to the exit from its asset purchase program, the Bank of Japan reduced its sovereign bond purchases and various other central banks hiked rates.
- The U.S. embarked on a major fiscal expansion via tax cuts and higher federal spending planned over the next several years.
- A serious trade tussle between the world’s largest trading nations raised the specter of a full-blown trade war.
- The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and on the Korean Peninsula dominated headlines.
- A larger-than-expected depreciation of the U.S. dollar unfolded during 2017.
More recently – and partly in response to these policy pivots – rising rates in the U.S., a reversal of the U.S. dollar, and a range of country-specific factors are putting pressure on emerging market (EM) assets. That said, the longer-term environment should remain generally supportive for many investments in EM.
In short, we felt that our 2016 and 2017 secular themes have started to play out but have further room to run in the next few years. Also, economic, policy, geopolitical and financial market developments over the past year provided plenty of food for thought and raised important new questions about the secular and supersecular outlook.
Our secular baseline includes a recession
For starters, we re-examined our existing baseline view that a recession in the U.S. over the next three to five years is more likely than not, and that large parts of the rest of the world would not be immune to it. To be sure, we discussed and acknowledged that a possible pickup in productivity growth and a potentially very low fiscal multiplier might keep inflationary pressures at bay and prevent a significant tightening of monetary policy, resulting in a moderate expansion continuing throughout the next five years. However, the road toward such a benign outcome is narrow and curvy for several reasons:
First, assuming no additional stimulus in 2020, the fading of the U.S. fiscal sugar-rush after 2018–2019 could lead to withdrawal symptoms that could exacerbate a cyclical slowdown.
Second, the fiscal stimulus is arriving at a time when the unemployment rate is already below 4%, which raises cyclical overheating risks. Moreover, depending on the outcome of the November 2018 U.S. midterm elections and in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election, there is a possibility of additional fiscal easing, either in the form of a public infrastructure program or by making the tax cuts permanent, or both. While this is not our base case, if this came to pass it would add fuel to the flames.
Third, a fiscal-policy-induced overheating might force the Fed, which seems unwilling to tolerate a prolonged overshoot of its inflation target by more than a couple of tenths of a percentage point, into pushing policy rates significantly above neutral. This has usually not ended well in past cycles.
Fourth, while not our baseline, there is a distinct possibility that the current trade tussle between the U.S. and much of the rest of the world turns into a full-blown trade war, hitting consumer confidence and corporate animal spirits. As one participant mentioned at our forum, the current trade tensions may be akin to professional wrestling: a spectacle that’s more bluster than real action, but still an inherently risky activity where people can get hurt.
A shallower but longer and riskier recession
To be fair, a poll we conducted among sell-side economists and strategists ahead of our forum suggests that a U.S. recession over the next three to five years has now become consensus – even though markets do not seem to be pricing in this risk, judging by risk spreads and volatility. Thus, a more interesting question we considered at the forum is how deep and how long the next recession might be, and what policy responses it might entail. While all of this is highly speculative, we lean toward forecasting a shallower and longer, call it wok- or saucer-shaped, recession rather than a deeper but shorter V-shaped recession:
- Shallower, because there are so far no signs of corporate or housing overinvestment or overconsumption in the U.S. economy, and the global financial sector looks steadier than in the past few cycles. The main risk to this view is elevated levels of non-financial corporate leverage, which raises the risk of a major default cycle even in an initially shallow recession.
- Longer, because relatively low interest rates, bloated central bank balance sheets and (in the U.S.) larger fiscal deficits limit the policy space to fight a global recession. Moreover, given the widespread trend toward economic nationalism and protectionism, a recession could fuel trade deglobalization and currency wars, thus shrinking the pie further.
- In addition, the next recession could be riskier than a standard postwar recession, for a few reasons: Inflation expectations are very low at the outset almost everywhere, the structural weaknesses in the eurozone could be exposed, and a recession would raise the risk of populism aimed at wealth redistribution and confiscation.
A more difficult environment ahead
While the evolution of the economic cycle over the next several years – overheating or not, recession or not, what type of recession and where – is important, we concluded that there are much broader issues with far-reaching implications to consider.
Since the crisis, the global economy has been characterized by financial repression (via regulation and extraordinary central bank activity), generally passive or restrictive fiscal policies, weak growth in productivity and real wages, low inflation, largely uninhibited trade and capital flows, and limited volatility. Meanwhile, aggregate global debt levels have continued to rise.
“Over the secular horizon, we expect a very different macro landscape to emerge, for good or ill.”
Over the secular horizon, we expect a very different macro landscape to emerge, for good or ill. Many changes are underway already: Many central banks have begun dialing back post-crisis monetary policy actions even as fiscal policy becomes more expansionary, the regulatory discussion is moving from the financial to the tech sector, and right-wing economic nationalism and protectionism are gaining strength in many regions.
Among the many potential drivers of significant change over our secular horizon, at our forum we zoomed in on productivity, fiscal policy and more extreme incarnations of economic nationalism and populism than we’re currently seeing.
First, regarding productivity, some forum participants argued for a mean reversion after a disappointing stretch of several years, partly helped by cyclical factors such as on-the-job learning in an almost fully employed U.S. economy. Others expected technology-driven efficiency advances to lift productivity and potential output growth on a more sustained basis, thus lifting natural real interest rates over time. However, as we discussed at the forum, such productivity gains may be slow in coming and more likely to become meaningful on the supersecular horizon rather than in the next three to five years, as we still seem to be in the early stages of the diffusion of artificial intelligence and machine learning into the broader economy. To become more optimistic on productivity over the long term, we would first need to see a significant pickup in investment spending in the coming years.
Second, a global fiscal expansion/public dis-saving that is large enough to offset some or all of the global excess of desired saving over desired investment in the private sector would challenge the status quo of low inflation and low interest rates. So far, the U.S. is the only major economy that has embarked on meaningful fiscal stimulus, which will take effect over the next few years. While this is unlikely to be enough to absorb the global savings glut, there is a possibility that even more expansionary policies may be adopted ahead of the 2020 U.S. presidential elections, and other countries might join in.
“There is a significant risk of a populist backlash, especially if and when we hit another recession.”
Third, and relatedly, over the secular horizon there is a significant risk of a populist backlash, especially if and when we hit another recession. This could come in different flavors: income and wealth redistribution from the winners to the losers of the games of globalization and digitalization, more aggressive protectionism, nationalization of major firms or even industries, or attacks on central bank independence, to name just a few. Think wealth taxes, more progressive income taxes and universal basic income, potentially financed by money-printing. If left-wing populism were to take hold in the U.S., U.K. or Europe, weaker growth and higher inflation would likely result. Note, however, that there is also a potential (if not very likely) upside for the economy if sensible redistribution policies support real incomes and provide training and jobs for those left behind by digitalization and globalization.
China, the U.S. and the Thucydides trap
Geopolitics could be another source of rude awakenings. With the help of our Global Advisory Board, we discussed the geopolitical implications of an assertive China under a strong authoritative leader with a clear long-term vision to reach developed country income levels by 2035 and “fully developed” status by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic. Many observers discuss a potential “Thucydides trap” – which results in conflict when a rising power (such as Athens at the end of the 5th century B.C., Germany at the end of the 19th century and now China) challenges a ruling power (such as Sparta, Great Britain and now the U.S.). The Thucydides trap is not inevitable. However, the likely tensions caused by China becoming a global economic and military superpower while the U.S. tries to more assertively defend its status in the areas of trade, intellectual property and defense create uncertainty and could be another source of accidents over our secular horizon.
On a more positive note, we acknowledged that a united and strong Chinese leadership that regained centralized control of state-owned enterprises and suppressed capital flows could make China a less likely source of systemic shocks for the rest of the world. Also, with China’s leadership having a long-term orientation while the Trump administration is more short-term-focused given the presidential election cycle, there is a good chance of a “fairer and freer trade deal” that includes better protection of intellectual property rights and satisfies the U.S.’s short-term goal but allows China to keep pursuing its longer-term goals. That said, there remains an elevated element of unpredictability in U.S. policy, while a Chinese leader who is internally unrivalled and fully in control may still make unintended policy mistakes.
Secular investment implications
The Secular Forum is a central and longstanding part of our investment process, helping to tilt our strategy toward a long-term orientation, encourage contrarian thinking and establish investment guardrails. As we look out over the next three to five years, we do not assume a continuation of the post-2008-crisis past. We will prepare for a more difficult environment and look to be positioned to play offense when expected rude awakenings present themselves.
To be sure, a benign path for the next three to five years is possible. But it would be a difficult path, with stretched valuations and the range of potential potholes and accidents leaving little room for maneuvering. The current recovery has led to a shift toward less central bank support and outright tightening in a number of cases, led by the U.S. Less predictable and perhaps less market-friendly central banks could lead to higher volatility over time. A rise in inflation pressures after decades of wage quiescence would make the challenge all the more difficult.
“Financial assets have significantly outperformed the real economy over the past decade but, over the next decade, the opposite may very well be the case.”
Since the 2008 crisis, bad news for the economy has typically been interpreted as good news for financial assets, as policymakers have been quick to respond. But this “buy the dip” mentality may not endure. Financial assets have significantly outperformed the real economy over the past decade but, over the next decade, the opposite may very well be the case.
Over the secular horizon, good and bad news for the economy may affect markets in unpredictable ways. There are upside risks from a breakout in productivity growth, for example. But productivity improvement in the real economy could lead to higher real rates, hurting many investors in fixed income assets and in equities alike (though as we’ve often discussed, a rising rate environment, while potentially painful in the short run, is not necessarily something long-term bond investors need fear).
At the same time, a U.S. recession is part of our baseline outlook for the next three to five years, and we would expect significant global economic and market spillovers in that event. Economic nationalist and populist pressures could be amplified. Central banks may come to the rescue again, but there may also be new threats to central bank independence in such an environment, with unpredictable consequences.
No one has a crystal ball on the economy, markets or politics, and the risks arising from populist movements are harder to quantify. But we can guard against placing too many eggs in one basket, which could happen if we attach too high a probability to a benign baseline path. And we can focus on maintaining portfolio flexibility to respond in the face of both downside and upside risks or surprises. This may mean giving up some portfolio yield potential in exchange for this flexibility, for example by holding more highly liquid short-term investments.
While we expect to be cautious in our positioning, we will remain focused as always on our clients’ objectives, such as the need for income, across our range of different strategies. We will look to find and exploit the best tactical and structural ideas, and to generate income from as broad an opportunity set as possible without excessive reliance on corporate credit.
Given less attractive valuations and increased volatility in many markets, our broad and flexible mandates are likely to provide considerable advantages over the secular horizon – they have access to our best ideas from the full global opportunity set and can diversify across a broad range of sovereign and spread sectors. Global policy and political uncertainties also mean that strong global research capabilities will be important in pinpointing the most attractive opportunities to deliver returns while managing risk.
As we get closer to a possible end to the current expansion, it becomes harder to distinguish between cyclical overshoots and long-term shifts in the underlying macro and market dynamics. There is ample potential for cyclical overshoots in the face of relatively small changes in the data, and as a consequence of market valuations that leave little room for error. These cyclical overshoots and data “head fakes” may provide trading opportunities across different sectors of the market.
We will continue to deepen the integration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors as a core part of our active investment process. ESG factors are a crucial component of our assessment of corporate, securitized asset and sovereign risk. We have launched dedicated U.S. and global core ESG strategies and plan to expand our ESG strategies further. ESG is an area where we will continue to invest in our capabilities in analysis and issuer engagement – both to meet client objectives and to strengthen our overall investment process.
“We continue to expect The New Neutral framework of low equilibrium policy rates anchoring global fixed income markets to be a useful guide.”
Duration, volatility, curve
Continuing the discussion from the March 2018 Cyclical Forum, while interest rates have moved higher, likely driven in large part by the prospect of wider fiscal deficits and increased supply in the U.S., we continue to expect The New Neutral framework of low equilibrium policy rates anchoring global fixed income markets to be a useful guide. Demographics, high existing debt levels, low productivity and the global savings glut would work against significantly higher real and nominal interest rates. At the same time, we view productivity growth, fiscal policy and more extreme incarnations of economic nationalism and populism as significant sources of disruption. Thus, in our portfolios we expect to maintain durations that are close to benchmark, given our forecast for fairly range-bound global fixed income markets and what we see as generally balanced upside and downside risks to the forward yield curves.
While in our baseline view the level of global yields looks broadly anchored, we believe the level of bond market volatility seems surprisingly low, considering the increased uncertainty in the outlook and our expectation of less central-bank-driven suppression in volatility. Indeed, we may see less predictable central bank activity in general, with the Fed well into its tightening cycle and many other major central banks at minimum dialing back their post-crisis support and some following the Fed lead. We anticipate a rise in volatility and, as a result, we expect to place less emphasis on volatility sales, which in a more normal volatility environment would be a key part of our portfolio construction. We may find targeted opportunities where buying volatility will present an attractive risk/reward trade-off.
We expect that higher volatility over time will lead to the re-establishment of higher term premia and risk spreads, leading to steeper yield curves. Higher inflation pressures, whether perceived or realized, could also lead to global curve steepening. As part of our focus on structural trades that seek to exploit market inefficiencies, we acknowledge the strong technical demand for the long end of the curve created by the regulatory environment for insurance companies and pension funds. The shorter end of the curve tends to offer better yield or income per unit of duration.
We view U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as offering a reasonably priced portfolio hedge against the possibility of upside U.S. inflation risks. A significant breakout of higher inflation is not our base case for the secular horizon, but as labor markets tighten across much of the global economy, higher inflation certainly looks a bigger risk than it has been over the past decade. As well as TIPS, commodities and other hard assets also offer a reasonable inflation hedge.
We believe we should be much more selective on credit as we approach the end of the post-crisis secular recovery. Our overall caution is bolstered by the large flows we have seen into the asset class, the increase in corporate leverage, and the fact that many asset allocators who were pushed into credit by the low yields available in short-term, liquidity-focused markets in the last decade may find those short-term investments more enticing in the coming years.
We will continue to seek to limit our exposure to generic investment grade and high yield corporate bonds, emphasizing instead the best bottom-up ideas presented by our global team of credit portfolio managers and analysts. Overall we expect to continue to reduce corporate credit risk, emphasizing short-dated exposures and “bend but don’t break” positions in corporate debt and structured products with a low likelihood of default. We think that investments related to the U.S. housing market and offering structural seniority and hard asset coverage remain attractive. More generally, sectors that have seen a significant increase in regulation, including commercial real estate and the financial sector as well as housing, will likely demonstrate resilience in a more difficult market environment, while other segments of the corporate universe may be more volatile than current valuations appear to anticipate.
“With central banks more uncertain actors over the longer term, we will seek to focus on investments that offer robust risk/return profiles and that do not rely excessively on central bank support.”
With central banks more uncertain actors over the longer term, we will seek to focus on investments that offer robust risk/return profiles and that do not rely excessively on central bank support. In that context we expect to be careful in particular on eurozone peripheral risk, given the reliance on European Central Bank (ECB) support, uncertainty over the future direction of the ECB, and our expectation that in the next eurozone recession the underlying weaknesses of peripheral sovereign credit and of the eurozone itself will be exposed once again, given the lack of noticeable institutional reforms since the last eurozone crisis. The rise of populist parties is only the latest example of populist risk in the eurozone at a time of reasonable growth by eurozone standards; we would expect political risk to grow in the event of a sustained slowdown.
We have a broadly balanced view on the U.S. dollar versus other G-10 currencies, reflecting limited valuation anomalies across markets and, in the U.S., the balance between upward pressure on the dollar exerted by rates and growth differentials and the downward pressure exerted by the twin current account and fiscal deficits.
We expect to find opportunities in emerging markets, across countries and sectors, guided by our EM specialist team. Idiosyncratic risk, as well as the path for U.S. policy rates, the U.S. dollar, cyclical uncertainty and a potential rise in developed market volatility will be important in navigating emerging market investments. But we also expect that over time the continuation of The New Neutral environment and overall low policy rates and developed market yields will be supportive for EM assets.
“While we anticipate a difficult investment environment, it is one where we expect to find good opportunities as active managers.”
Active management approach
Starting valuations across sectors mean that we anticipate overall an environment of lower nominal returns compared with the post-2008 recovery period. While we anticipate a difficult investment environment, it is one where we expect to find good opportunities as active managers and where, owing to lower beta market returns, we anticipate that alpha resulting from strong, well-established investment processes and rigorous analysis will be an even more important component of total return.
The ongoing attractiveness of liquidity premia and complexity premia will continue to provide compelling opportunities across many of our investment strategies, and especially in private vehicles with appropriate lockups that would allow us opportunity to harvest potential returns over longer periods of time, whatever the vagaries of the cycle, and to seek to exploit voids in the financial system as the result of ongoing shifts in the regulatory environment. Market segments that have faced the most post-crisis regulation will continue to provide some of the best opportunities for years to come, in our view. Higher volatility and political uncertainty may also lead to intriguing private investment opportunities in real estate and credit. Emerging markets will likely remain volatile, which should provide attractive diversification potential.
Across most investments but especially in the private sphere, we think it is wise to hold more cash-like investments as markets remain prone to overshoots based on increasingly uncertain fundamentals and a technical environment prone to sizable flow reversals as sentiment changes. We have built out our private credit capabilities and will continue to do so, with care. We see this as an area for nimbleness and caution, and again a source of attractive diversification that complements our traditional fixed income strategies.