The objective of this study was to develop a quantitative image feature model to predict non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) volume shrinkage from pre-treatment CT images. 64 stage II-IIIB NSCLC patients with similar treatments were all imaged using the same CT scanner and protocol. For each patient, the planning gross tumor volume (GTV) was deformed onto the week 6 treatment image, and tumor shrinkage was quantified as the deformed GTV volume divided by the planning GTV volume. Geometric, intensity histogram, absolute gradient image, co-occurrence matrix, and run-length matrix image features were extracted from each planning GTV. Prediction models were generated using principal component regression with simulated annealing subset selection. Performance was quantified using the mean squared error (MSE) between the predicted and observed tumor shrinkages. Permutation tests were used to validate the results. The optimal prediction model gave a strong correlation between the observed and predicted tumor shrinkages with r =0.81 and MSE=8.60×10−3. Compared to predictions based on the mean population shrinkage this resulted in a 2.92 fold reduction in MSE. In conclusion, this study indicated that quantitative image features extracted from existing pre-treatment CT images can successfully predict tumor shrinkage and provide additional information for clinical decisions regarding patient risk stratification, treatment, and prognosis. 
NSCLC tumor shrinkage prediction using quantitative image features