Editor's note: Fawaz A. Gerges holds the Christian A. Johnson Chair in Middle Eastern Studies and International Affairs at Sarah Lawrence College. His most recent book is "The Far Enemy: Why Jihad Went Global." This is the first of two pieces by Gerges on the Iranian election.



Fawaz Gerges says Iran's president is vulnerable on the economy and broken promises of women's rights.



(CNN) -- In Iran, as in every country, all politics is local. While there exist few substantive differences among leading presidential contenders over foreign and nuclear policy, there are divisions over the economy.



With uncertain and declining oil revenues and a global financial crisis, Iran has fallen on hard times.



The nation suffers from high inflation and an unemployment rate that tops 30 percent (according to unofficial figures) -- one of the highest in the region, despite the country's huge oil exports.



Public discontent over the faltering economy has seen President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad become increasingly unpopular. His reformist and conservative opponents alike have criticized him publicly for spending too much time agitating the U.S. and Israel and not enough trying to fix the crumbling economy.



Regardless of which candidate wins on June 12 or in a potential runoff, he will inherit a grave economic crisis and a restive population. Dealing with foreign affairs is likely to be some way down his list of priorities.



At his first press conference after announcing his presidential candidacy, Hossein Mousavi, Ahmadinejad's main opponent, pledged to increase freedoms for Iranians and curb controversial restrictions that require women to cover their hair in public.



"Can a security patrol save our youths?" Mousavi said of the increase in the moral police operations to prevent women from allowing their hair to show in public. "Or can they be saved by the words of a grandfather who talks to his granddaughter?" he asked rhetorically.



The patrols began after Ahmadinejad became president, though his government denies responsibility; many women claim that his administration has institutionalized discrimination against them.



Criticizing the president's rhetoric and the strictures he has imposed on daily life and public discourse, Mousavi, who appeals to the youth vote and women, said social controls are the domain of the people, not the government -- a radical departure from the dominant orthodoxy of the ruling mullahs.



Mousavi frames his reforms as an affirmation of Iran's constitution, which he says has been "violated and undermined" by Ahmadinejad. The reason for his rhetoric is that women and young voters could tip the balance of power in his favor.



Half of the 46 million eligible voters are women. In 1997, more than 60 percent of the votes that brought former President Mohammad Khatami to power were cast by women, and in 2000 women voters were instrumental in giving reformists a sweeping majority in the parliament. Promising greater individual freedoms to Iran's young people was instrumental in the two landslide victories by Khatami in 1997 and 2001.



Ironically, during the 2005 presidential election, candidate Ahmadinejad said he would loosen state control over people's personal affairs. Trying to garner support among women and young voters, in one of his pre-election television interviews he questioned the role of the morality police: "Let our children arrange their hair any way they wish. It does not concern you and me. ... The government should fix the economy of the nation and improve its atmosphere. ... People have variegated tastes."



His broken promises to women voters could cost him the presidency on June 12. A reformist woman and a former member of parliament said in a newspaper article that the president's days are numbered: "The women's movement in Iran is gaining momentum and these elections may be the first step towards Ahmadinejad [being] forced out."



Indeed, women have become critical players in Iran's electoral map. More women activists are making their voices and demands heard and have formed coalitions to defeat the incumbent.



Almost 600 women have registered for the forthcoming 290-seat Majlis (parliamentary) election, which will be crucial in determining the future of the ultra-conservatives who broadly back Ahmadinejad. There are currently only two women in secondary Cabinet positions and 11
Whose economy is in trouble due to lower oil prices? For what reasons is Iran's economy in trouble Who are considered key factors in the past votes What is considered the main turning point for the Iranian elections Which group of people think Ahamdinejad broke their promises to them?
Iran uncertain and declining oil revenues and women, Promising greater individual freedoms to Iran's young people was instrumental women voters
question: Whose economy is in trouble due to lower oil prices?, answer: Iran | question: For what reasons is Iran's economy in trouble, answer: uncertain and declining oil revenues and | question: Who are considered key factors in the past votes, answer: women, | question: What is considered the main turning point for the Iranian elections, answer: Promising greater individual freedoms to Iran's young people was instrumental | question: Which group of people think Ahamdinejad broke their promises to them?, answer: women voters