Can we bypass global gridlock?
Forecasting is always an imprecise science and when it comes to measuring something as difficult to quantify as the number of cars on our planet's roads, it becomes even more difficult. As a result, predictions about car usage reaching as far ahead as the next century vary enormously.
According to the Japanese Institute of Energy Economics, the number of cars roving our planet will more than double to reach 2bn by 2050. The International Transport Forum, meanwhile, puts the figure at 2.5bn; Nissan predicts 2.9bn; and even 4bn has been suggested by Bill Ford, chair of the Ford Motor Company.
All of these divergent predictions are driven by similar assumptions – the knowledge that the world's population is growing and becoming increasingly urbanised. Again, forecasts vary, but the United Nations predicts that the earth will be home to more than 9bn people by 2050, three quarters of whom are expected to live in towns and cities. What is more, according to the UN, half of those living in cities in 2050 will be based in today's developing regions.
In an effort to map out the implications of such growth, the Guardian, in association with Ford, assembled a panel and audience of experts to discuss the future of sustainable transport. The seminar was streamed live on the internet so remote viewers could follow the discussion.
The panel discussed a number of questions, such as: can society possibly function with so many people driving so many cars?; is global gridlock inevitable?; will the transport of basic items such as food and medicine become a fraught and unpredictable challenge? Audience members were invited to participate in the discussion and ask the panel questions of their own.
Taking part on the panel were Sylvain Haon, secretary general of Polis, a network for European local authorities focusing on transport policy; Susan Claris, an associate director at Arup, the London-based engineering and design consultancy; Barb Samardzich, vice president of product development at car manufacturer Ford of Europe; and Fabio Orecchini, professor of energy systems at the University of Rome.
Imagining the future
"Our vision of the future is nearly always high-tech," observed Claris, pointing to the hover-cars, jet-packs and aerial roadways that are a staple of science fiction. "This vision of the future has been the same for a long time. But I think the future is actually oversold and under-imagined." The reality, she argued, is likely to be more complicated than we can imagine.
As an example of failing to grasp the full potential of future technologies, Claris said: "Back in the 1980s, when I first heard about email, I wondered why on earth we would want to send a message from one computer to another." Today, it is much easier to assess the value of new communication, and car makers are already experimenting with interconnected cars.
"Data is power," explained Ford's Samardzich, describing how a network of smart vehicles might provide a detailed, real-time snapshot of an entire city. "Once you have that, you can understand where you have problems, how to reroute, how to redirect people to modes of transport they weren't even thinking about when they started their day."
While clever technology might ease congestion even in a more crowded world, Polis's Haon warned that much better integration among different types of transport will be needed to enable the mode-switching Samardzich envisages. And however smart private cars become, it seems inevitable that they will become less relevant as populations increase.
As Haon noted, the use of cars in cities may already have peaked. Researchers have measured drops in journeys over the past decade in several European cities such as London, Stockholm, Vienna and Zurich. The same trend is evident in Australian cities and even in the US, with Atlanta, Houston, Los Angeles and San Francisco showing declines from very high levels of car use in the mid-1990s.
In the case of London at least, the change has come about partly through improved alternatives and partly through policies that make urban driving even less inviting than it might otherwise be. As the seminar heard, putting control of city transport under a single authority was vital, allowing the funds from congestion charging to be ploughed into alternatives to the car.
The resulting increases in walking and cycling also promise health benefits beyond better roads and cleaner air. Robin Stott, an audience member, cited medical studies that predict the world will contain a billion obese people by 2030 – a trend that might be countered by just a little more exercise.
However, the role of muscle power may be limited. "In Chennai, in India, walking is the number-one mode of transportation and it's not working for them," Samardzich said. "They have trouble moving their goods and getting to work. Unless you've been there you can hardly fathom it." Whatever solution works for New York or Paris may not translate to India, the discussion heard, where the challenges are unrecognisably different.
Whatever role cars fulfil in the future, it seems likely that alternatives to petrol and diesel power will proliferate. "Hydrogen vehicles, electric vehicles and alternative fuels will come to market," Orecchini said. "Technical problems will be overcome. The challenge is how to start with those technologies that are ready to be used."
Haon, by contrast, foresaw bigger opportunities in the move to new propulsion systems. "We have to think more out of the box. People are still [hoping] to replace internal combustion vehicles with electric vehicles. If you look at the figures, this is never going to happen. But can we use the transition to a different technology to move towards a different type of behaviour?"
Paris has already introduced Autolib', a scheme modelled on its much-copied Vélib cycle-hire system – the inspiration for London's "Boris bikes". Tens of thousands of members share a fleet of about 2,000 electric cars, charged in dedicated bays around the city. "The whole approach of sharing vehicles is a better business model for electric vehicles", Haon said, citing the prohibitive cost of high-capacity batteries.
Even without issues of cost, sharing remains desirable, according to Claris. "The average car is parked for something like 96% of the time," she said. If more cars were shared, we wouldn't need so many.
While car-sharing makes sense from many angles, a big hurdle is that car owners aren't currently inclined to share. Samardzich cited a survey of 6,000 people carried out recently by Ford, which found that three quarters of Europeans would cling to private cars even if public transport were miraculously perfected.
As Orecchini pointed out, we can hardly expect carmakers to promote alternatives to car ownership, so we must look to regulation to fix what the market cannot.
"The market has to answer questions simply on cost", Orecchini explained, adding that most other goals generally have to be imposed. "For new technologies in the automotive sector, I think regulation is vital," he said.
European targets designed to reduce automotive CO2 emissions were opposed by manufacturers, but they very quickly fell into line once the rules were in place. Sustained regulation has shifted the costs and benefits of developing expensive new technologies, such as more efficient engines.
Audience member Chris Jenkins of outsourcing provider Harvey Nash noted that the ban on smoking in public buildings provides another strong example of policy-led social change in an emotionally charged arena. But, as the seminar heard, a smoking ban was only possible once there was the political will behind it, which required a majority of anti-smoking voters.
But, of course, change usually arrives with consequences. As Claris noted, teleworking may reduce the need to commute but, for example, it also means homes are heated for longer, releasing more CO2. And staff less tied to an office often move farther afield, travelling for longer on those days when they do need to commute. The result may be more harm than good.
The debate among the panel and its audience made it clear that technology is likely to be a liberating force in our transport infrastructure, and indeed it already is. Car sharing, for example, would be much harder to organise without the web and mobile networks, which allow members of car clubs to book and view the availability of vehicles online.
Haon even suggested that the combination of policy and technology might gradually change the relationship we have with cars to a more sustainable model. "It's not happening overnight, it's not happening easily," he said, "but it can happen."
Key discussion points
More sharing Fewer cars will be used by more people. Car clubs, car pooling and flexible hire schemes will proliferate. Single-occupant journeys may be regulated.
More sustainable vehicles Cars will be lighter, powered by smaller engines or alternative means of propulsion. A split may emerge between short-range urban cars and long-range highway vehicles.
Smarter cars Electronically governed cars will "platoon" into road-trains. Safety systems will avoid most of the accidents that trigger tailbacks. Fully automated cars will adhere to speed restrictions and never block junctions.
Better integration Multimode transport hubs will make it easier to switch among car, bicycle, tube, train, bus and walking.
Better fuels The transport fuels will come from multiple sources – electricity, hydrogen and biofuels – and will gradually become more renewable.
On the panel
Jo Confino (Chair)
Executive editor, the Guardian
Barb Samardzich
Vice president of product development, Ford of Europe
Fabio Orecchini
Professor of energy systems, University of Rome
Sylvain Haon
Secretary general, Polis
Susan Claris
Associate director, Arup
Seminar report commissioned by Seven Plus and controlled by the Guardian
Discussion hosted to a brief agreed with Ford
Funded by Ford
Contact Chris Howells on 0203-353 4870
(chris.howells@theguardian.com)
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