Despite warnings of chaos, New Zealand is poised to abandon majority government
New Zealand has endured a messy election campaign, and there’s a good chance election night and the following period of negotiations will be just as untidy.
Most analysts expect the nation’s experiment with majority government to be over. But more than that, this week’s Guardian Essential New Zealand poll, like others, suggests that three parties may be necessary to form the government, as the potential influence of New Zealand First continues to grow.
Yet the traditional hyperventilation from major party politicians about the danger of “instability” and “chaos” in minority government is performative. In politics, the marriage of convenience is the marriage available, and New Zealanders have sat on both sides of that aisle before.
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Leading the charge to scare voters about the stability of minority governments have been the two major party leaders: both the prime minister, Chris Hipkins, and National leader, Christopher Luxon, have derided each other’s possible governing arrangements as a “coalition of chaos”, urging voters to keep things simple by balloting for the party they think should lead the government. The polls suggest voters are ignoring them.
National has failed to convert an overwhelmingly negative mood into a clear election-winning lead. In some respects, voters have rated its performance more poorly than the incumbent. In the latest Guardian Essential New Zealand poll, 37% said what they have heard or seen during the campaign has made them feel more negative about Luxon and National, compared to 25% for Hipkins and Labour.
When you consider that 27% said they have changed their vote during the campaign, this is bad news for National and their hopes for a clear mandate to govern.
The prime minister’s claims that Labour’s support is being “understated” may hold weight, with the latest numbers suggesting a shift from centre-right to centre-left over the last month – and in particular against Act. Remember also that National have historically underperformed compared to its polling average, while New Zealand First has generally come in higher than its polling average.
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The kind of government New Zealanders get may not be clear on election night. While a National-led government is still the more likely outcome, with Labour failing to convince younger voters to return to its base, the nation looks set to deliver a resounding “meh” in its assessment of both major parties regardless of who ends up in Premier House. The Greens and New Zealand First have benefited.
Firebrand Winston Peters is far from a popular mainstream choice, but 26% of New Zealanders say having New Zealand First in the balance of power would be good for the country That’s more than three times New Zealand First’s current party vote. Less than half think it would be bad.
In addition, New Zealanders appear generally comfortable with minority governments, with only one-third polled saying it is best to have a single-party majority. While there is a very clear preference for workable coalitions, the numbers paint a picture that is far removed from the panicked rhetoric of the campaign.
Fear-mongering about a shift to minor parties hasn’t stopped the splintering of the electorate. Both major parties sit well below 40%. New Zealanders may not want “instability and chaos”, but they do expect their leaders to walk down the aisle in whatever arrangement they’ve been served up.
Peter Stahel is the managing director of Essential, a progressive strategic communications and research company