India’s biggest state begins voting in key test of Narendra Modi popularity
India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, has begun voting in the first of a series of local elections that will be a test of the popularity of the prime minister, Narendra Modi, and his ruling party.
With a population almost as big as that of Brazil, keeping power in the bellwether state would bolster the Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) in its claim for a third successive victory at nationwide parliamentary polls due by 2024.
In Vrindavan, a Hindu holy city about 100 miles (160km) south of India’s capital, New Delhi, saffron-clad monks bundled up against the winter cold waited in line with other local people to cast their votes.
“If people want to have a good government, they have to come out to vote,” said Acharya Udit Narayan Diwedi, 41, who said he voted for the BJP.
Defeat in Uttar Pradesh, or in any of the other three states it holds that also stage elections this month, would add to pressure on the Hindu nationalist party amid criticism of high unemployment and its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“If the BJP loses, especially in UP, that will be a big setback,” said Rahul Verma, a fellow at the New Delhi-based thinktank Centre for Policy Research. “But you can call this a semi-final. The game in 2024 will be very, very different.”
For the main opposition Congress party, led by the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, the calculation appears bleaker. Of the five states where voting begins this month, it holds only Punjab in the north-west.
“Congress desperately needs to win states, even if it is smaller states, just to get back in the habit of winning. Otherwise they are in trouble,” said Verma.
Failure to do so would lead to more questions about the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, whose father, grandmother and great-grandfather have all served as prime ministers but who has struggled to dent Modi’s high ratings.
During campaigning, the BJP has appealed to large Hindu majorities in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Both states are home to important holy sites, some of which are disputed by Hindus and minority Muslims.
Opinion polls suggest the BJP will win the vote in both states, despite some opposition parties seeking to mirror its Hindu-first agenda and appeal to its support base.
“We have seen all political parties playing within the same field of the BJP,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, the author of a biography of Modi. “That is one of their biggest successes.”
Congress and activists have criticised the approach, saying it risks stoking communal tensions that have flared up into deadly violence in the past.
Yogi Adityanath, a hardline Hindu monk who is seeking re-election as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, praised his own record on fighting crime and said that law and order took precedence over religion. “My government dealt with the issues of corruption,” he told reporters on Monday.
“Law and order has improved markedly and police action during my rule was taken against gangsters and mafia groups without discriminating on the basis of their caste or religion.”
Uttar Pradesh, home to about 200 million people, votes in seven phases ending on 7 March, while most other states begin polling in the coming days. Counting in the five states begins on 10 March, with the results expected soon after.
The BJP faces a challenge from Congress in the north-eastern state of Manipur, while in the western state of Goa, the Aam Aadmi party (AAP) is trying to expand its reach beyond its traditional base of New Delhi.
The fifth state, Punjab, looks like a close contest between the ruling Congress, AAP and several regional parties.