US digital advertising in 2016: things will get better
If I can make one prediction for media and the internet in 2016, it is that things will get better.
In 2015, spending time on the web had all the charm of walking across a sticky cinema floor.
Trying to get what you came to see was laden with unpleasant experiences. Ad tech’s power grew out of whack, pageview bait articles abounded, and advertising remained interruptive and annoying.
But as we’ve seen with the rise in the ad blocker narrative, good consumer experiences are fighting back and 2016 will see ad tech in retreat. Platforms such as Instagram and Medium allow for smart, targeted and more harmonious places for content and advertising, and new mobile standards from Google will improve how we consume information quickly and cleanly on mobile devices.
Following are some of the key trends worth keeping an eye on for 2016:
1. Adblockers are only the first salvo
Between 20 and 50% of web users are believed to use adblockers and it’s a number that is expected to grow. To-date, there hasn’t been a publisher response of note. 2016 will see the first forays into this and it will be varied — from white listing to more of an emphasis on branded content studios and native content.
It’s worth noting that adblockers are only the first salvo, with customers protecting data and identities. More people are going to be using a VPN, more people are going to be taking extra precautions such as adopting super secure messaging platforms.
2. The new case for media experience
Just as user experience (UX) focuses on empathy and the end user, the same should be said for those trying to put a brand message or piece of content in front of an audience.
To-date, buying impressions by volume, interrupting people, and trying to flip a switch and skip steps has been the norm. With the rise of new, smart inventory such as newsfeed ads, Instagram carousel ads, and other harmonious options, there is now more need to both create interesting content and serve it up in ways that are targeted, smart and most importantly, show respect for the end user.
This will be hard for a lot of advertisers, but people that do it very well will be in greater demand. And publishers will start facing real pressure to clean up their acts. Shocker: it turns out that fast, clean loading pages make people want to stay around, read more, and spend more time on a site.
3. Death of the meddling middle
There will be great culling of lacklustre mid-tier publishers that aren’t part of a bigger network. They are DOA, with ad blocking being used at scale, and undifferentiated audiences. Vital, smaller niche publications in key verticals for business will continue to thrive and grow and also discover new ways of making money.
4. A contrarian focus on quality
In a world full of pageview bait and spammy SEO-articles, a recent New Yorker initiative gave me room for hope. Poynter highlights a few key initiatives: investing in more copy-editing staff, focusing on smart social distribution of the right stories – and not just spamming the feed – and generally upholding the same standards online as the storied print edition. Newyorker.com editor Nicholas Thompson said: “The most encouraging thing we found is that the stories we’re prouder of, the stories we put more effort into, attract more readers.” It seems quality can be rewarded after all, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out with other publishers in 2016. Not everyone is the New Yorker, obviously.
5. Podcasting continues to thrive
It’s no secret that podcasting had a breakout year with the case of Serial and the success of Gimlet Media, focused on doing HBO-level quality shows. On the consumption side, the tech is getting better with great apps like Overcast so its getting easier to listen in the car for that arduous commute. On the business side, we will see legitimate business models continue to evolve, not only with smartly integrated advertising (MailChimp …) but also the rise of branded studios to help advertisers tell smart stories in audio formats, which is also cheaper than creating a ton of video. Distribution will be key here.
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6. The great platform migration
Through Facebook Instant Articles, Google’s new Accelerated Mobile Page project, and platforms such as Medium, we will continue to see huge migrations of traditional news organisations (WaPo, NYT) on to these platforms. Just look at this job listing at Medium for a clue. Also, these platforms are selling ads on publishers’ behalf with revenue split.
Some may argue that for publishers, this is like building an oil refinery, spending money refining, and then giving the last mile of pipeline away. But with the chase for dwindling revenues, it might be a deal they have to cut and it may be the new way of the world.
7. The case for great creative
The past few years have focused on ad tech plumbing and circuitboards. But not enough on what goes in the boxes and inventory that is so meticulously served up. Expect this to swing back into the favour of the creative world, and the people that can make genuinely creative stuff while conveying a brand message.
As Felix Salmon said in his astute piece over at Nieman Lab: “When brute force and invasions of privacy don’t work anymore, that’s when creatives start to really show their value.” I hope this is the case.
Colin Nagy is executive director at The Barbarian Group. Follow him on Twitter @CJN
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