Australian Open 2002: men's final preview
If tomorrow's Australian Open men's final follows the pattern of the previous 12 days, then Sweden's Thomas Johansson is home and dry. On the other hand, should the tournament finally run to form, then Russia's Marat Safin will surely claim his second grand- slam title, having defeated Pete Sampras in the 2000 US Open final, a victory that marked him out as the leader of the game's young guns.
The pattern was set early. By the third round here Tim Henman at No6 was the top seed left in a competition that had begun with the withdrawal of Andre Agassi, the reigning champion, and had fragmented, in terms of the leading players, at an alarming rate thereafter.
The benighted Tommy Haas, who had picked up the mantle of top seed by the semi-finals, duly went the way of all favourite flesh yesterday when he was defeated 6-7, 7-6, 3-6, 6-0, 6-2 by Safin. Haas, the No7 seed, appeared unaware of his doom when he established a lead of two sets to one over Safin, the No9 seed. The German had saved a match point in his fourth-round five-setter against Switzerland's Roger Federer, had grown in confidence and seemed ready to take Safin off at the knees.
This was not the Safin who had beaten Sampras at Flushing Meadows in straight sets or the one who had repeated the dose in the fourth round here over four sets. Although the young Muscovite, who will be 22 tomorrow, was dressed in his normal tennis shirt and shorts, it appeared that someone had sewn lead into the seams. Safin shambled around the Rod Laver arena like a prolapsed bear and called for medical attention shortly after his service was broken in the second set, having lost the first-set tie-break.
And herein lay the intrigue of this semi-final. So poorly was Safin playing that something was clearly badly wrong with the Russian's preparation, even though he won the second set when Haas became temporarily freaked by the loud chirping of the stadium's resident mynah birds. Questioned afterwards, Safin would reveal nothing.
"It is a secret. I made a small mistake and misunderstanding with my doctor," he said. "I couldn't move my legs at the start of the match." By everybody's reckoning, including his own, Safin had been lucky when South Africa's Wayne Ferreira pulled out of their quarter-final on Wednesday with a torn stomach muscle in the opening set. And good fortune was not about to desert Safin against Haas.
It is tempting to speculate that prior to the semi-final, with Melbourne experiencing intense heat, Safin had asked for salt pills and been given sleeping pills instead. Haas, whose game has improved sharply over the last half year, duly gave his opponent the run-around. By the end of the third set Haas was poised to become the first German grand-slam finalist since Michael Stich at the 1996 French Open. Then it rained.
Safin greeted the first drops with almost reverential gratitude. The roof was closed, the court dried off and a little more than 50 minutes later the Russian returned transformed. Gone was the lethargy and the polite ground strokes. He won 27 of the next 38 points to level the match and then hung Haas out to dry. Behold Safin, the vulnerable maggot, become Safin, the viciously stinging wasp.
"I don't make any miracles," said Safin, who during the break consulted the Israeli Amit Naor, a former player, who has been acting as a part-coach, part-manager in the absence of Sweden's Mats Wilander, the former three-times Australian Open champion who coached Safin last year. "I moved back a little bit when receiving his serve but having a massage was the main thing." Suddenly the Russian was hitting the ball as sweetly and powerfully as he had against Sampras, and poor Haas, beaten in the 1999 Australian semi-final by another Russian, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, was unzipped.
After winning the 2000 US Open Safin suffered from back trouble last year and sank from No2 to No11 in the world rankings. Australia's Lleyton Hewitt replaced him as the champion at Flushing Meadows, and also claimed the No1 spot, thereby establishing himself as the leader of the brat pack. But the 20-year-old Hewitt was struck down with chickenpox just before the tournament began and lost in the first round against Spain's Alberto Martin. As other leading players fell in the first week, so Safin's confidence rose and now only Johansson stands in his way.
The Swede, aged 26 and the No16 seed, had never reached a grand-slam semi- final prior to this week, his best previous showing being two US Open quarter- finals in 1998 and 2000, and has never been ranked any higher than No14 in the world. All that appears about to change, with a top-10 place beckoning. "Nobody likes to play against him," said Safin. " He has a great serve and his ground strokes are very dangerous."
If Safin is 100% focused and his preparation is spot on, then he should have too much fire power for the Swede tomorrow. The words of Sampras hold the key: "Whoever doesn't choke will win." Both Johansson and Safin, who smashed a racket against Haas, have brittle temperaments, although Safin's greater experience at this level, albeit marginal, should see him home. But beware the curse of the leading seed.
MARAT SAFIN
Born January 27 1980
Nationality Russian
Plays Right-handed; two-handed backhand
Turned pro 1997
Grand slam best US Open champion 2000
Australian Open best last 16 2001
THOMAS JOHANSSON
Born March 24 1975
Nationality Swedish
Plays Right-handed
Turned pro 1994
Grand slam best US Open quarter-finals 1998, 2000
Australian Open best last 32 2001
Head to head
2001 Dubai (hard) s-f Safin 6-7, 7-6, 6-3
2001 Indian Wells (hard) r64 Johansson 7-5, 7-5
2001 US Open (hard) r16 Safin 6-2, 2-6, 6-4, 7-6