Japan World Cup 2018 team guide: tactics, key players and expert predictions
This article is part of the Guardian’s 2018 World Cup Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the 32 countries who have qualified for Russia. theguardian.com is running previews from two countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 14 June.
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Japan decided to part ways with their manager Vahid Halilhodzic in April, just two months before the World Cup, and as such, it becomes an extremely difficult task to analyse the tactics that the national team will deploy this summer. The three warm-up matches immediately before the tournament – 2-0 defeats by Ghana and Switzerland, followed by a 4-2 win over a young Paraguay side – involved an awful lot of experimentation, and predicting the first XI still involves plenty of guesswork.
The 63-year-old Akira Nishino, chosen at the last minute to take Japan through the tournament, is a veteran coach with years of experience in the J-League. Though the manner of his appointment was a surprise, he had long been considered a full national team manager of the future ever since leading the Olympic side at Atlanta 1996. There he took an under-23 lineup without a single overage player to a memorable victory over a Brazil team that included Ronaldo, Roberto Carlos, Dida, and the overage players Rivaldo, Bebeto, and Aldair. This match, starring a young Hidetoshi Nakata, has gone down in Japanese football history as “The Miracle of Miami”.
Nishino’s tactics back then were highly defensive, based on tight man-to-man marking, but as the manager of Gamba Osaka from 2002 to 2011 he showed another side to his character as a much more attacking manager. In 2005 Gamba won their first J-League title with a highly aggressive approach, and the club also went on to win the AFC Champions League under his management in 2008. In December of that year, Gamba faced Manchester United in the Club World Cup semi-final and went down fighting in an entertaining 5-3 defeat.
Nishino himself has said that he prefers this more attacking approach, but at the same time stresses that it should not go as far as all-out “banzai” attack. As he showed at the Atlanta Olympics, he will still take the pragmatic option when faced with a significantly stronger opponent.
Upon his appointment, the new manager declared that he wished to return to a more “Japanese style of play”, which suggests an emphasis on speed and agility, hard work and endurance. He also said: “I don’t want to place restraints on individuals”. Nishino has always underlined the importance of individual expression, and in contrast to Halilhodzic – who preached rigid discipline – he will likely give more freedom to Japan’s attacking players in particular. This could prove to be the Samurai Blue’s biggest strength, but also their weakness.
The theory, at least, has been evident so far. Nishino dabbled unsuccessfully with a 3-4-2-1 formation for his first match against Ghana at the end of May but this appears to be a plan B after using 4-2-3-1 for the two friendlies in June. The return to this Japanese style initially descended into parody by emphasising the old flaws: lots of fast, attractive buildup but ultimately no penetration, followed by errors under pressure at the back.
But after changing 10 of his starting XI for the Paraguay game, the manager finally made things click in the second half with a more aggressive approach and playing higher up the pitch, which delivered four goals. He has selection dilemmas in a more positive sense; the performances of Takashi Inui and Shinji Kagawa ought to have put them back into contention to start.
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Probable starting XI
Japan probable starting XI
Which player is going to surprise everyone at the World Cup?
Yuya Osako. His ability to drop deep, skilfully hold up the ball, and spray passes adds a different flavour to the national team from the qualities he tends to exhibit in the Bundesliga for Köln.
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Which player is likely to disappoint?
Many Japanese fans are worried about the condition of the Marseille defender Hiroki Sakai. He picked up an injury at the worst possible time toward the end of the Ligue 1 season and while fans hope that he will recover quickly, there are fears he will not be fully fit.
What is the realistic aim for Japan and why?
The last 16. This would match Japan’s best ever performances, in 2002 and 2010, making it the obvious target for this country. It is also an appropriate objective in terms of the current strength of the team. With all that has happened, it would be dreaming to aim for the quarter-finals or even further.
Akihiko Kawabata writes for Footballista
English translation and additional text by Ben Mabley