Tightening polls suggest NSW could be heading towards minority government
Two new polls suggest the New South Wales Coalition has closed the gap on Labor, putting the state on track for a minority government.
A Newspoll survey of 1,014 voters published in the Australian shows primary support for Labor has fallen by four percentage points since September, to 36%, while the Coalition has gained two points to 37%.
Labor leads the two-party preferred vote 52-48.
If replicated uniformly on 25 March, both major parties would fall short of the 47 seats needed for majority government and be forced to rely on crossbench support.
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A second poll published on Monday painted a somewhat rosier picture for Labor but indicated the fine line the opposition leader, Chris Minns, must walk to topple the premier, Dominic Perrottet.
The Australian Financial Review survey of 1,247 voters put Labor on 53-47 on a two-party-preferred basis, backed by a primary vote of 39%.
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However, Perrottet enjoyed a double-digit lead in the preferred premier stakes in both polls, along with a positive net approval rating in Newspoll.
The AFR poll shows living costs and standards (71%) and housing and accommodation (45%) are at the forefront of voters’ minds.
Meanwhile, the premier denied secretly sneaking through an energy tax after notice of a $138m levy on electricity network providers for the year to June 2024 was published on Friday afternoon.
The cost equates to about $37 per bill.
Perrottet said the fee was part of the 2020 law that enabled the government’s 20-year $30b Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap, which would eventually bring electricity bills down by an average of $130.
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“Our roadmap sets up long-term reliable energy and affordable energy for the people of our state,” he told Sydney radio station 2GB on Monday.
Labor’s energy spokesperson, Jihad Dib, accused the energy minister of a cover-up.
“We are in a cost of living crisis compounded by an energy crisis,” he said.
“Not only is [the energy minister] Matt Kean making it worse, he doesn’t want you to know about it.”
Labor has also attacked the premier’s expansion of a signature housing affordability policy.
The plan revealed by Perrottet on Sunday would enable first home buyers to continue choosing between an upfront stamp duty payment or an annual land tax on their family home for life.
They could also apply the land tax to one investment property.
“Stamp duty is a terrible tax,” Perrottet said.
But the announcement was seized on by Labor as a clear indication the premier could further expand the scheme to all homes.
“[Perrottet] is indicating to the people of NSW that he wants to expand the land tax on the family home – something that we’ve never had in NSW before,” Minns said.
Labor has proposed raising the stamp duty concession for first homebuyers buying property to $800,000 and offering a discount rate for homes up to $1m.