A new CNN poll shows that it's back to a toss-up for the 2014 midterms elections. A month ago, Democrats were comfortably ahead 50-42%. Now the Republicans are marginally ahead 49-47%: a 10-point swing in public opinion. Of course, the figures don't actually tell us who will win the next round of congressional elections, but they do remind us of a fact that escapes short-termist political punditry: Voters react to events and are liable to change their mind. The rise and rise of President Obama's unbeatable rainbow coalition is not a historical inevitability but the product of temporary trends. To recap, the story a few months ago was that the Republicans had proved themselves incapable of governing wisely and, therefore, of winning elections. By trying to use the shutdown to force a delay in the further implementation of Obamacare, they were accused of putting partisanship before country, of pushing America to the brink of destruction just to humiliate Obama.
@highlight
Tim Stanley: CNN poll shows GOP is now ahead for 2014 midterm elections
@highlight
He says it shows voters react to events, in this case Obamacare snafus, are volatile
@highlight
He says shutdown hurt GOP, but Christie and Virginia race offered some good news
@highlight
Stanley: Obama coalition not inviolable; voters fed up with him and Congress, will shift
Eight in 10 voters disapproved of the shutdown, including two in three @placeholder or independents who lean Republican.