Using game theory and data analytics, a group of political scientists predicted Egypt's current turmoil back in 2011 as the Mubarak regime was falling, and is now working to forecast the country's future. In November 2011, a few months after Hosni Mubarak had been ousted by the Egyptian revolution, the scientists predicted that in the final evolution of Egypt's transitional democratic phase, the military would allow for semi-free elections but would still act as custodians of the country and the true center of power in the short to medium term. "But as we predicted, when any opposition party comes into power, they only have a year or so to deliver their promises -- and most of the time they can't. And that's what led us to where we are today," said Mark Abdollahian, a political scientist and co-creator of Senturion, a large-data predictive analysis model that's used by the U.S. State Department and other governments in predicting, preventing and stopping cycles of violence.
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Team predicted that Morsy's government had only a year or so to deliver
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Data analyzed came from factors inside and outside of Egypt
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Model predicts that the military will continue ties to U.S. to keep military aid flowing
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Team suggests that violence will intensify before it abates
And once we did that, using game theory, we get a good map to track," a method Abdollahian and his team continue to use in forecasting what's next for @placeholder.