(CNN) -- In practical terms, it might seem that the recent arrests of key Taliban members and the success of the U.S. offensive in southern Afghanistan might indicate a new phase in the war against the Taliban. But how the Taliban respond will be based on a world view and beliefs far different from the American perspective and that of the Western-educated Afghan and Pakistani elites, whom we rely on for strategic advice and partnership. On Tuesday, Pakistani authorities confirmed the capture of Mullah Abdul Kabir, a member of the Taliban's inner circle and a leading military commander against the Americans in eastern Afghanistan.
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Ken Ballen interviewed Taliban leaders and fighters over two years
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Ballen: How Taliban react to arrests of key leaders can't be predicted
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Ballen found Taliban leaders rely on "true night dreams" to guide them
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Whether Taliban cut ties with al Qaeda may depend on dream to Mullah Omar, he writes
Omar and the Taliban leadership may be willing to negotiate with the @placeholder, or they may simply fight to the last man.