Cape Town, South Africa (CNN) -- Judging by the ferocity with which Gerrie Nel pursued a case of "planned and premeditated" murder against Oscar Pistorius at his bail hearing, it would not be unreasonable to assume the state had a strong case. From the outset, however, the veracity of the state's case appeared to dwindle. At the bail hearing in February, the then-lead investigator Hilton Botha crumbled on the stand and had to concede that there was little appreciable evidence gathered to back up the state's claims. Worse, he admitted serious breaches of investigation protocol, including the failure to wear protective foot coverings at the crime scene, thereby contaminating certain forensic evidence. Botha also had to concede that Pistorius' version of events was not implausible.
@highlight
Olympian and Paralympian Oscar Pistorius accused of killing girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp
@highlight
Pistorius denies murder, says he believed Steenkamp was an intruder
@highlight
Judge in the case has warned of danger of "trial by media" because of press reports
@highlight
Phelps: We simply don't have enough information yet to know truth of the case
@placeholder, now retired from the police service, would do well to remind himself of this.