Despite the ray of good news in Thursday's Geneva agreement on steps to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine, President Obama was right to sound a note of caution, observing that "I don't think we can be sure of anything at this point." The deal, reached by Russia, Ukraine and the West, called for, among other things, disarming illegally armed pro-Russian demonstrators in eastern Ukraine, and the surrender of the government buildings they have seized. These are good and essential first steps, but unless they can now be implemented as a basis on which the parties can move to further, bolder steps to reverse underlying trends, Ukraine could still slide into civil war. If this happened, how would it affect American national interests? Could Ukraine become a 21st century echo of the Balkans in the 1990s, when the collapse of Yugoslavia saw a decade of war between Serbs, Croatians, Bosnians and Kosovars? (No one should forget that just a century ago Ukraine was sucked into a tragic, bloody civil war shortly after gaining independence in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution.)
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Graham Allison: Geneva deal on de-escalation in Ukraine a ray of hope
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He says unless terms are implemented and conflict reversed, civil war still a threat
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He says West does have an interest in stalling Russia-coaxed incursions
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Allison: If Latvia, part of NATO, were next, U.S. could be compelled to enter conflict
@placeholder military, security and police forces are so impotent, demoralized and compromised by Russian infiltration that their response has so far been pathetic.