(CNN) -- As the story goes, in 2010 there was a dramatic political course correction. The electorate that just two years earlier had overwhelmingly voted for hope and change, sweeping Democrats into office, up and down the ballot, across the country, had buyers' remorse. America changed its mind after 2008 and broke hard for the tea party, building a wave that would devastate Democrats. At least that's the conventional lazy narrative about the 2010 midterm elections. That narrative draws a picture of a tea party wave that swept Republicans to victory on the back of a set of conservative policies in reaction to President Barack Obama and Democrats.
@highlight
Cornell Belcher: Conventional wisdom says a tea party wave drove results of 2010 midterms
@highlight
He says numbers show a huge drop in Democratic voters doomed candidates in 2010
@highlight
In midterms, Democrats stand to lose Senate and more if base doesn't turn out, he says
@highlight
Belcher: Young, diverse base of Obama voters can make a difference if they turn out
In these key battleground states, 65-plus performing Democratic precincts (precincts that vote Democratic at a rate of 65% or better -- in other words, Democratic base) turned out at 34%, while Republican 65-plus precincts (precincts that vote @placeholder at a rate of 65% or better -- base Republican) turned out at 51% as a percentage of registration.
That in a nutshell is how @placeholder lost in 2010 and how Republicans are poised to have a stellar year again in 2014 -- not a wave, but a Democratic base ebb.
@placeholder get that midterms are all about firing up their base.