Pronóstico de accidentes viales en el espacio intrametropolitano de Toluca: un enfoque Bayesiano
In recent years, the explanation of traffic accidents tended to focus on the urban spatial structure. It is considered that certain features of the environment (e.g. land use, road system, economic activities, population and intensity of vehicular flows) are indirect factors that favor the occurrence of collision traffic accidents in urban areas. The central part of the in-trametropolitan zone of Toluca in Mexico) records elevated rates of traffic accidents. This research aims to identify the physical elements of the urban structure, which affects most of the risks about traffic accidents, in the study area, at AGEB level (which stands for the Basic Geo-statistical Area). Three Bayesian models are being used in order to achieve the research objective: Bivariant Poisson-Gamma, Multivariate and Negative Binomial probabilistic. The results indicate that vehicular flows and employment density are the most related variables linked to the risk of collision traffic accidents, in the study area.