Research on the Impact Effect of Monetary Policy on the Price Fluctuation of Chinese Agricultural Products
This paper constructs a mathematical model by learning from Frankel'analytical framework and tests the factors that influence the price fluctuation of Chinese agricultural products from 1952 to 20102. The results show that:( 1). no matter in long term or in short term,the monetary policy has powerful impacts on the price fluctuation of Chinese agricultural products and the rise of the supply of broad money is the key factor that leads to the price rise of Chinese agricultural products.( 2) In the long run,the price fluctuation of agricultural products are affected by fiscal policy and the exchange rate of RMB; in the short run,the expansion of fiscal expenditure promotes the rise of Chinese agricultural products and the shock of exchange rate is not significant.( 3) This paper proves that rapid money supply is the most important factor that leads to the sharp fluctuation of agricultural products after February 2009 by using Chow breakpoint method based on the data from January 1999 to December 2012.