Disrupting a socio-ecological system: How could traditional ecological knowledge be the key to preserving the Araucaria Forest in Brazil under climate change?
Abstract Socio-ecological systems (SESs) hinge on human groups and ecosystems, promoting interdependence and resilience to environmental disturbances. Climate change effects propagate from organisms to biomes, likely influencing SESs. In southern Brazil, the Araucaria Forest is a typical SES due to the historical interaction between humans and biodiversity. Thus, we empirically and theoretically evaluated how climate change could disrupt this system by interviewing 97 smallholders and assessing their traditional ecological knowledge (TEK). We evaluated and measured the socioeconomic impact of the araucaria’s ( Araucaria angustifolia ) nut-like seed (pinhão) trade and the ethnoecological knowledge about climate change, as well as generated an ecosystem services network. We used these empirical data with a projected loss of 50–70% of the Araucaria Forest due to climate change to quantify the risks of the potential disruption of this SES. We found evidence that to avoid the disruption of the Araucaria Forests, it is paramount to value TEK holders, safeguard the historical socio-ecological interaction, and promote non-mutually exclusive measures in an integrative response to maintain the resilience of this forest to future disturbances.