Random Simulation Method for the PERT Network Based on the CrystalBall and Excel Environment
Although Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) has been applied widely in the planning and control of the project progress, there are some deficiencies, for example, the accuracy of the estimated activity duration is not high, the distribution pattern of the duration variable is single, the calculation result of the project completion probability is slightly larger and so on. Based on present research results, this article proposes using Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate varieties of distribution situations of the activity duration with Crystal Ball and Excel tools, and calculate the completion time and the probability distribution of the project according to the Critical Path Method(CPM). In the last, this article verifies the effectiveness and the convenience of this method by an example. Because of abandoning assumptions of the PERT, therefore the random simulation model has more stronger adaptability and credibility than the traditional PERT. Taking advantage of Crystal Ball and Excel tools, the project progress managers can easily realize the random simulation and calculation of the large-scale complex projects, then guarantee the successful completion of the project and reduce the risk of duration delay.