Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change
Significance We applied regional and global-scale biogeochemical models that coupled thaw depth with soil carbon exposure to evaluate the dependence of the evolution of future carbon storage in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change. Our analysis indicates that the northern permafrost region could act as a net sink for carbon under more aggressive climate change mitigation pathways. Under less aggressive pathways, the region would likely act as a source of soil carbon to the atmosphere, but substantial net losses would not occur until after 2100. These results suggest that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.