Digital campaigning and electoral democracy
Overview: This project will set a new agenda and direction for the study of political campaigns. It will examine whether and how new digital technologies are transforming election campaigns and citizen behaviour in new and established democracies. More specifically, it will assess claims that democracies are now entering a new data-driven era of political campaigning that is profoundly reconfiguring how campaigns’ are run, who runs them and their implications for the quality of voter decision-making, the vibrancy of political parties and ultimately, the future of representative democracy. It will do so in three main stages: (1) First, it will define what data-driven campaigning is and critically assess whether it forms new and distinct era of electioneering in conceptual and historical terms? In particular, it will argue that the two key traits of this new mode of campaigning are the increased individualization or micro-targeting of party messages and the automated use of misinformation to mobilize and persuade voters. (2) Based on this definition it will map the ‘supply’ of the new mode of campaigning across new and older democracies by designing an innovative new index to compare use of data-driven techniques by parties. Where is it most commonly seen and why are some parties and countries more likely to promote its growth? (3) Finally, it will assess the impact of these new methods on key political actors and assess the consequences for the longer term future of liberal democracy. Does use of these techniques help counter recent declines in voter turnout by identifying under-mobilized groups? Or, do they ensure parties focus on the already engaged, bypassing those that are harder to reach? Can data-driven campaigning improve citizen choices by giving them the information on the issues they primarily care about or does it help to increase disinformation and even manipulation of voter choices?