Elucidating the marine diversity gradient with empirical and theoretical models
As the Earth warms, the oceans are predicted to undergo dramatic physical and chemical changes. However, uncertainty persists regarding the geograpic distributions of marine biodiversity patterns and the processes that generate them. Basic measures of biodiversity are often used as a proxy for ecosystem health, and without understanding what marine biodiversity patterns are and how they have been generated in the past, anticipating and mitigating climate change effects on our oceans will remain an impossible task. To date, study of terrestrial systems has dominated macroecological and biogeographic research. The proposed project will establish analytical procedure for estimating baseline marine diversity patterns and inferring the broad-scale processes that generated those patterns, adapted to the unique properties of marine systems. The specific objectives of the project are: 1) Obtain empirical estimates biodiversity patterns for three orders of marine fish, 2) Generate a process-based model of the mechanisms leading to marine diversity patterns, and 3) Compare empirical diversity estimates and process-based models to identify where theory is unable to predict reality. This work will strengthen the link between the theory-predicted expectations of marine biodiversity and observed empirical patterns, improving our understanding of the unique processes that shape marine macroecology and biogeography. This, in turn, will aid in anticipating the potential effects of climate change on future diversity, and lead to more robust preservation and mitigation strategies.