Prediction of the Number of Medals in International General Games: With Beijing Olympic Games as an Example
Based on theories of econometrics,population,GDP per capita,home advantage,social system,achievements in the previous Olympic Games,this paper established a preliminary model with multiple non-linear regression analysis.Considering the discrepancy in competitive sports strength between countries,the authors divided competitive sports strength into five scales with fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm.By introducing dummy variable,the authors proposed a revised model which combines theories of economics and discrepancy in competitive sports strength,and conducts a prediction analysis of the number of medals in 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.Results showed that this model can reveal the general tendency in the change of Olympic medals won by different countries,and can overcome the influence of discrepancy in competitive sports strength on prediction precision.This model can be applied to the prediction of the number of medals in international general games due to its scientificity and feasibility.