The impacts of carbon pricing on coastal megacities: A CGE analysis of Singapore
Abstract Pricing carbon is a widely used policy instrument for climate change mitigation. Quantitative analysis of carbon pricing are mainly conducted at the regional and national level, rarely at the city level due to data availability. As a representative of coastal megacities that are vulnerable to both climate change and climate policies, Singapore has announced to impose carbon tax on large direct emitters as a complementary mitigation option to technical measures. A city-level Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is developed to simulate potential impacts of carbon pricing on the city, including paying border-carbon-adjustment (BCA) on exports or introducing a domestic carbon tax. Different sector coverages and carbon tax revenue recycling schemes are investigated for domestic carbon tax. The simulation results show that a domestic carbon tax is a more cost-effective option than paying BCA. Given an identical carbon price at S$10/t-CO 2 , GDP, total exports and household consumption would decline less and average abatement cost is much smaller in the carbon tax scenarios compared to the BCA scenario. In terms of absolute emissions reduction, a carbon tax that covers energy, manufacturing and land transport sectors would be preferred, making emissions around 2.7% lower than 2010 baseline level.