FDI Inflows into Russian Real Sector: Microeconomic Foundations and Forecasting
We develop a two-step methodology for analysis of FDI inflows into industries of Russian real sector, based on Heckman selection model. The methodology is related to the following important points: (1) it helps to take into account multilevel factors of FDI inflows (including firm-level, industrial and macroeconomic factors); (2) one can use it to forecast FDI inflows into industries. According to estimates, in 2015 FDI to Russian real sector is going to fall in most industries. This shall result in a significant shift in the FDI structure towards raw materials and energy sectors. However, in 2017 FDI will recover in most industries (including the shift back in the sectoral structure of FDI).