Can Farmer Adapt to Climate Change — An Evidence from Shandong in China
Given the field survey data about 524 peasant households in 64 villages of 32 counties in Shandong Province, this article applies Ricardian Model to make an empirical analysis of influences of climate change on peasant households. It is indicated by the research that, climate warming has obvious negative effects on peasant households’ net income of unit land area, which may continue to exist in the long run and might be aggravated. In the contextual model of future climate change, peasant households’ net income of unit land area will be greatly reduced. Except that temperature rise in autumn has positive effects on peasant households’ net income of unit land area, temperature rise in winter, spring and summer all reduces peasant households’ income. When the temperature rises 1℃, peasant households’ net income per Mu land reduces 28.50 Yuan; when the precipitation rises 1mm, net income per Mu land reduces 16.47 Yuan. Estimated according to the HADcm3 context, the temperature in 2100 will rise 4.01℃ more than that in 2000, the precipitation will rise 7.69% and the net income of peasant households per Mu land will reduce 282.39 Yuan. The following measures can obviously increase net income of peasant households per unit land area: peasant households participating in agricultural training, constructing farmers’ market that is close to peasant households, setting up water conservancy ficilities to increase irrigable acre, participating in agricultural insurance and adjusting planting structure, etc.