Modelling the impact over time - consumer transport [Chapter 9]
This chapter considers a few simple scenarios that introduce some potential scale to the input-output multiplier model analyses in Chapters 3, 4 and 6 in considering the potential wider economic impacts of a projected shift to a hydrogen economy. Again, focus is mainly on the case of private transportation and the shift from petrol/diesel (refined fossil fuels) to hydrogen, with the supply chain of the latter proxied by those of the existing UK gas and/or electricity supply sectors. The key characteristic of these proxies is the markedly stronger up-stream supply chain linkages within the UK economy as compared to the more import-intensive refined fuel supply industry. A central conclusion of the modelling work in this paper is that if a future hydrogen sector shares this characteristic, net positive impacts on the UK economy as whole are likely when/if private transportation transitions to the use of hydrogen as a fuel source.