Spatial dependencies of storm surges and global risk assessment.
An extreme still water level (ESWL) event caused by a single storm can affect multiple populations, critical services, and industrial sectors, thus magnifying the impacts of the event. The identification of coastal stretches prone to be impacted simultaneously by an ESWL event is crucial for accurate risk analyses, development of efficient emergency plans, robust insurance schemes, and public adaptation funds. However, little attention has been paid to the study of the spatial extension of storm surges and ESWLs and the related studies were conducted under the assumption of stationarity. Also, the spatial dependencies of the storm surges and ESWLs have been systematically neglected in broad-scale coastal risk assessments. Through a combination of ESWL, surge, and socio-economic datasets, and by using advanced statistical and vulnerability assessment models, SpaDeRisks addresses these knowledge gaps. In this project, it will be (i) investigated, at a global scale, the non-stationarity spatial dependencies of ESWLs and storm surges; (ii) performed a novel framework to include the spatial dependencies into broad-scale coastal flood risk assessment and; (iii) assessed flood coastal impacts under present and future conditions. The new framework will provide additional risk metrics that cannot be derived from traditional broad-scale coastal risk analyses. Results from this project will be relevant for the scientific community and stakeholders involved in coastal management and thus, special attention will be devoted to dissemination and communication. The fellowship will contribute to the development of the researcher career through broadening the competencies in assessing coastal flooding, acquiring new knowledge in oceanographic sciences and advanced statistical techniques, and learning the use of the state-of-the-art models for vulnerability and impact assessment.