Application of Improved Gray Model in Security Early Warning System
For the purpose of the prediction of safety production situation of a drilling company,analyzing the accident data,based on the traditional GM(1,1) model,this paper puts forward a method from three aspects to improve the mode by analyzing safety incident data.The three aspects are respectively improving the smoothness of the original data,optimizing the background value,and optimizing initial value.Also it carries out a posteriori differential test against the accuracy of the model.The application of model in the security warning system shows that the accuracy of new GM(1,1) model is significantly higher than the traditional one.It provides a theoretical basis and decision support for the relevant safety management department to prevent and control the security incidents.