Untangling the impacts of technological transformations, globalisation and demographic change to foster shared prosperity in europe
Technological transformations, globalisation and demographic changes are the three key mega-trends posing socio-economic challenges and opportunities for the EU. UNTANGLED aims to fill knowledge gaps about these trends by pursuing three main goals: (1) to provide detailed analyses at the macro-, regional-, sectoral-, and micro-level concerning the effects of these trends on labour market outcomes and inequality, and their winners and losers; (2) to develop comprehensive, model-based scenarios of the impacts of these trends in the next decades, overall and for various subpopulations, sectors and regions; (3) to develop policy recommendations fostering shared prosperity. UNTANGLED contributes to the work programme’s goal of promoting inclusive and evidence-based policy and informed public debates. In measuring effects, we disentangle the joint impacts of the trends on the changing demand of skills, employability, wage and income inequality, and mobility and migration patterns. We pay attention to effects by gender, age, skill level, and firm type. We use an interdisciplinary approach that combines quantitative and qualitative methods and adopts a cross-country perspective, covering the entire EU and accounting for developments in other continents. This helps to project the impact of shocks on global value chains. Our scenarios are firmly based on analytical results and created with two complementary models to provide robust results at the country-, sector- and regional-level. To develop assumptions and ensure relevance of scenarios, we engage in extensive consultations and set up feedback loops with stakeholders, which complement and validate the economic and institutional analyses. These stakeholder consultations help to develop concrete policy proposals aimed at shared prosperity. We deliver research papers and policy briefs. To maximise UNTANGLED’s impact, we disseminate the lessons learned and policy proposals to policy-makers, stakeholders and the public.