An assessment of cellulosic ethanol industry sustainability based on industry configurations
Thirty six billion gallons of renewable fuel is US government-mandated by 2022, of which approximately 21 billion gallons will originate from cellulosic sources. This presents a challenge to the cellulosic biofuel industry, although it provides a window of opportunity to bring vision, policy, and science together to guide the industry's sustainable development. The objective of this research was to utilize current scientific knowledge and farmers' prac- tical experience to identify basic characteristics of the cellulosic biofuel industry that will allow it to be most functional and sustainable, such that policy might be developed, if needed, to favorably shape the industry. This study's key participants included 14 scientists actively engaged in biofuel research and 44 farmers or agriculture professionals. The methods used in this study included (1) an integrated open forum and focus group discussions with scientists and (2) a triangulation of a survey and focus group discussion with farmers. Environmental, social, technological, and logistics criteria for four conversion facility configurations were assessed. Scientists assessed multiple-feedstock-species configurations more favorably than single-species configurations for environmental metrics and high/stable feedstock produc- tion. They also assessed distributed units as having fewer logistic challenges than centralized processing units. Distributed multiple-species configurations were also assessed to have greater rural development opportunity than other configurations. In contrast, the centralized single- species configuration was consistently assessed as not different from, or less favorable than, the other three configurations for all of the criteria assessed. Farmers have a significant need and desire for education about the emerging cellulosic biofuel industry but anticipated environ- mental challenges associated with single-species conversion platforms.