Complex Systems Dynamics and Sustainability
This chapter explores the implications of a complex dynamic systems perspective for the adequate conception of sustainability and satisfactory sustainability policy. The essence of sustainability policy is the appropriate management of human interaction with the natural world, with a particular emphasis on interactions that involve risks to valuable, especially life-supporting, environmental processes. The limitations on predictability also suggest that responsible sustainability policy will be a co-evolutionary learning process, not only at tactical scales among intention, prediction and action, but also at strategic scales between theory and observation, and between values, which direct policy goals, and descriptive understanding. Inherent limitations on dynamical modeling, prediction and normative development imply that a portfolio of precautionary do-a-little-to-learn activities is as important a component of sustainability strategy as is activity directed at maintaining current substantively valued conditions and processes. The dynamics of these learning processes are also characterized by strong positive feedback loops and path-dependent sensitivity to initial conditions. Furthermore, achieving the adequate management of risk in behaviorally complex systems implies a requirement for a robust appreciation of the significance of values implicit in both learning and other methodological norms, in addition to the traditionally recognized significance of values in the determination of substantive policy goals.