Investment Intention of Fruit and Vegetable Processing Firms in Food Tracing System:Simulation by Hidden Markov Model
In this paper,we try to study the intention of 87fruit and vegetable processing firms of Feng County,Jiangsu Province on investment in food tracing systems and the main factors by HMM(Hidden Markov Model),based on modeling with Baum-Welch algorithm and obtain the optimal path by Matlab simulation with Viterbi decoding algorithm.The results show that,like the personal psychology,the intention of fruit and vegetable processing firms on investment in tracing system are different and affected by variety of factors.The main factors affect the investment intention are the expectation of net income,government's regulation and supporting policies on food safety,demand of international market,the level of firm's quality certification system and information communications,and managers' age.However,the main factors that affect the investment intention of short food supply chain are not the level of degree of integration,characters of industrial risks,and managers' education level.