As it happened: Boris Johnson addresses MPs on new measures - BBC News
Boris Johnson is setting out his plans for a new four-week lockdown starting on Thursday.
Conservative MP Bob Seely voiced concerns about coronavirus data the government has been using and asked Boris Johnson to “publish in full, the four studies that have gone into the work this weekend”.

At Saturday’s government briefing, as the case for the new England lockdown was being made, a chart was used showing potential paths of the daily death count over the coming months.

The most eye-catching showed a peak of just above 4,000 deaths a day (roughly four times the figure during the worst days of the first wave). The rest were lower but still peaked at roughly double the level seen earlier this year.

These curves were all produced at the start of October, just after the rapid rise in cases that followed students returning to university. These were based on models for worst-case planning that assumed no changes in policy or behaviour.

But, since then, England has introduced a three-tier system of stricter measures and the epidemic has grown more slowly than the curves assumed it would.

On the day the chart was used, an average of 215 deaths had been reported each day in the previous week. That is far below the 1,000 a day envisioned by the most pessimistic model.

But it is only a little better than the most optimistic of the models, which still described a very high level of deaths through the winter.

Models like these describe possible futures, if certain assumptions turn out to be true – but they do not predict the future.