Malcolm Mackerras
Mackerras Pendulum
['zigeunerweisen', 'scrooge mcduck', 'dulcamara', 'desperate housewives', 'grand inquisitor', 'angkor wat', 'liverpool cathedral', 'het gulden cabinet', 'maison ikkoku', 'superman', 'ninth symphony', 'saw iv', '4900 class', 'ebenezer scrooge', 'the satanic verses', 'the boondocks', 'theaetetus', 'satyricon', 'naruto', 'le vite', 'top gun', 'one ring', 'the life aquatic', 'the skating minister', 'moonlight sonata', 'four quartets', 'mandrake', 'desdemona', 'wonderland', 'systema naturae', 'mario franchise', 'peanuts', 'torchwood', 'the simpsons', 'gormenghast series', 'mignon', 'lady macbeth', 'philosophical investigations', 'american idol', 'mickey mouse', 'mighty atom', 'melrose place', 'lois lane', 'metro 2033', 'the wire', 'il barbiere di siviglia', 'ivanhoe', 'buddenbrooks', 'elephants can remember', 'the hollow', 'de agri cultura', 'c programming language', 'also sprach zarathustra', 'recess', 'ecclesiazusae', 'the scholar gipsy', 'snl', 'islandia', 'the reader', 'steam engine', 'tristan', 'indiana jones', 'mcteague', 'wild swans', 'tony stark', 'great expectations', 'the fairly oddparents', 'rashtrapati bhavan', 'the unwritten', 'the shield', 'fauntleroy', 'euridice', 'godot', 'the west wing', 'the neverending story', 'la forza del destino', 'the mysterious island', 'brian', 'ernst stavro blofeld', 'la gazza ladra', 'bencao gangmu', 'atomic theory', 'american graffiti', 'malone dies', 'greek national anthem', 'invader zim', 'dracula', 'lassie', 'jason bourne', 'guilty gear', 'the last five years', 'shahnama', 'radiocarbon dating', 'romeo', 'vitruvian man', 'mad men', 'the inferno', 'the lumberjack song', 'nightmare abbey']
Pre-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2013
The following is a pendulum based on the outcome of the 2010 federal election and changes since, including the redistributions of seats in South Australia and Victoria. It is a Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, which works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament (71 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Green, 1 KAP and 5 independent) according to the percentage point margin on a two-candidate-preferred basis. The two-party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swings are never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's (AEC) classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. The swings for South Australian and Victorian seats are notional, based on calculations by the AEC.