{"content":[{"text":"Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden favor more fiscal stimulus for those \n financially injured by the pandemic. While the negotiations between Trump, \n Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell failed to bear fruit in advance of the \n election, each professed their support for more stimulus. The shape and size \n of the stimulus to come will change depending on the ultimate electoral \n count, but we expect another $1 trillion or so injection into our $20 \n trillion US economy. Pair this 5% stimulus boost with the release of pent-up \n demand post-vaccine and the economy should grow 4-5% in 2021 and beyond. \n Furthermore, a Biden presidency likely revives immigration volumes and \n reduces tariff drags, adding even more stimulus. His less-stimulative agenda \n items like major tax increases, major regulatory changes, and social \n reengineering plans seem implausible given McConnell’s reign over the \n Senate. Therefore, the economy should enjoy the fiscal policy pleasure \n without the fiscal policy pain. While this may enlarge the budget deficit, \n with interest rates anchored at record low levels, federal debt carrying \n costs are more than manageable, for now, and we have a weak dollar investment \n posture for insurance.","bbox":{"left":0.071429,"top":0.086905,"width":0.8565630000000001,"height":0.29261499999999996}},{"text":"Lastly, if the two runoffs in Georgia reconjure the blue wave, the historical \n return drag for the first two years of a unified presidential term does not \n carry into the four-year return calculations. Over the full four years, blue \n waves have produced 8.2% annualized returns compared with 8.6% annualized \n returns for a red wave. Why such parity? Because US corporations are the \n most resilient, dynamic, and adaptive institutions on the planet. Private \n sector consultants, lawyers and accountants > government bureaucrats.","bbox":{"left":0.071429,"top":0.428254,"width":0.8565630000000001,"height":0.11923700000000004}},{"text":"Post-Script: Americans resoundingly voted against extremism from both sides \n this week. I find this particularly heartening and hope you do too. While \n traditional and social media may have lost their pragmatic anchors, the rest \n of us have not. Whether you were for a Blue Wave or a Red Wave this go \n round, it’s the Purple Wave in governance that has historically best served \n Americans. Our differences make us great. Compromise keeps us balanced. \n The reason the rest of the world trusts the US dollar so categorically is \n that they ultimately trust the judgement of Americans. We may look \n incompetent at times, but we are not. As Winston Churchill (may have) \n quipped, “Americans will always do the right thing, but only after they have \n tried everything else”. Which seems to perfectly punctuate the 2020 \n election.","bbox":{"left":0.071429,"top":0.596225,"width":0.845439,"height":0.20592500000000002}},{"text":"Have a great weekend!","bbox":{"left":0.071429,"top":0.850884,"width":0.23360799999999998,"height":0.015209000000000028}}],"images_bbox":[],"images_bbox_not_text_overlap":[]}