{"content":[{"text":"FDD \n EVENTS","bbox":{"left":0.114139,"top":0.038281,"width":0.151181,"height":0.08882999999999999}},{"text":"Afghanistan After America’s Withdrawal \n Featuring Amb. Husain Haqqani, David Kilcullen, and Bill Roggio \n Moderated by Nancy Youssef \n Introduction by Clifford D. May","bbox":{"left":0.323779,"top":0.039674,"width":0.45956500000000006,"height":0.079181}},{"text":"ROGGIO: Yes, and thank you, Nancy. It’s a pleasure to see you and everyone on the panel. It’s good friends and \n I’m very happy to be here. It’s very difficult to get into the mind of the Taliban, to know exactly how they view this. One \n of the things I’ve done for the last decade plus is follow their military operations and see what they were focusing on, \n what was important to them. And it became very clear, particularly after the US began turning over security to the \n Afghan military and police and then went into a support role where they’ve trained, advised and it is in this role that the \n Taliban were working on a sort of a rural insurgency strategy. They’re taking control of some rural districts. By the way, \n there’s one district in Helmand that’s always been under Taliban control, it’s called Baghran, since the US entered the \n country in 2001.","bbox":{"left":0.05882,"top":0.16692,"width":0.867466,"height":0.134361}},{"text":"So, they had a little base there, and then they take control of these rural areas. They establish camps, they go out \n and recruit, they get fundraising. Of course, all of this is happening on the other side of the border in Pakistan as well. \n And then they’re branching out from these rural areas with the goal of surrounding provincial capitals and major cities. \n And then eventually, what I believe they’re looking to do is, and it’s no secret, I mean, they have entered Kunduz City, \n Farah City and Ghazni City four times in those three different capitals. So, they want to control these. The Taliban’s goal \n is to re-establish the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. And they’re very clear that they’re going to do this by force. They \n call it jihad. So, we’ve seen over the years that the Taliban has increased its control in contested areas, in rural districts. \n And then by doing this, they put pressure on the main line of communications, being mainly the ring road, route one, and \n they’re surrounding these capitals. And then they’re able to launch forays into them.","bbox":{"left":0.05882,"top":0.315532,"width":0.880789,"height":0.15090200000000004}},{"text":"Everyone’s talking about right now that the Taliban offensive has begun. I think we’re still in the stage where the \n Taliban is still laying the groundwork, it’s preparing the battlefield for - What I think they’re looking to do, and this is what \n I would do, really, as the Taliban. I hope I’m not giving them military advice, but I doubt they’d take it from me. It seems \n it would be smart for them, and what I’m seeing pretty much matches, they’re going to probably push to take the south, \n that’d be Helmand, Nuristan, Kandahar, obviously in the Southeast, you have Zabul and Ghazni, and then move up into \n the east, ultimately to put pressure on Kabul, the capital.","bbox":{"left":0.05882,"top":0.480685,"width":0.879258,"height":0.1009020000000001}},{"text":"And what we’re seeing in those areas right now is that the Taliban has made major gains, particularly in three \n provinces, Logar, Wardak and Laghman, and they actually made an attack on Mihtarlam, the provincial capital of \n Laghman. And they’re taking control of key districts - apologies for the very detailed explanation here, but it’s what’s in \n my head. Yeah, so they’re laying the groundwork. But while they’re doing this, they’re taking control of districts in the \n north and in the west, and so they’re fighting in all areas and even in central Afghanistan, in Ghor, a very heavily Hazaran, \n ethnic Hazara area that the Taliban do not like. They took control of a district there just the other day. So, they’re keeping \n up the pressure. They’re forcing the Afghan military to spread their forces. And so, I think that this is what we’re going \n to see. The south, they’ll work to the east, keep the pressure in the north, and put the pressure obviously on Kabul, that \n would be a real gem for the Taliban if they can take that.","bbox":{"left":0.05882,"top":0.595837,"width":0.882212,"height":0.150903}},{"text":"And the US air power has been critical in stopping the Taliban from overrunning provincial capitals, most recently in \n Helmand, and in Kandahar. And without this, the Afghans are going to be hard-pressed to defend. And I think one of the \n things the Afghan military, the Afghan government has to decide where it’s going to fight and what it’s going to concede. \n And it would require them to concede large areas of Afghanistan, the south and east primarily, if it wants to defend \n Kabul, if it wants to clear the Taliban out where it has very, has made major inroads in the north and in the west as well. \n It’s going to have to consolidate these forces, or else the Afghan military risks losing large portions of their military and \n large quantities of military material.","bbox":{"left":0.05882,"top":0.76099,"width":0.880553,"height":0.11756900000000003}},{"text":"2","bbox":{"left":0.93219,"top":0.958997,"width":0.008986999999999967,"height":0.01805599999999996}}],"images_bbox":[],"images_bbox_not_text_overlap":[]}