{"content":[{"text":"PRELIMINARY – do not cite without permission","bbox":{"left":0.490196,"top":0.047446,"width":0.39213800000000004,"height":0.015136999999999998}},{"text":"Testing a Model of Consumer Vehicle Purchases","bbox":{"left":0.307843,"top":0.092901,"width":0.38408300000000006,"height":0.015136999999999998}},{"text":"Estimating and simulating purchase patterns of consumer vehicles have significant policy","bbox":{"left":0.17647,"top":0.162597,"width":0.7027260000000001,"height":0.015137000000000012}},{"text":"relevance because of the contributions of vehicles to air pollution, including greenhouse gas","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.197446,"width":0.7213379999999999,"height":0.015137000000000012}},{"text":"(GHG) emissions, and because of the importance of the auto sector to the U.S. economy. A","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.232294,"width":0.720796,"height":0.015137000000000012}},{"text":"large literature has examined the impacts on vehicle sales and fleet mix of such questions as","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.267143,"width":0.721337,"height":0.015137000000000012}},{"text":"impacts of fuel economy standards and pollution taxes (e.g., Goldberg 1998, Whitefoot and","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.301991,"width":0.717628,"height":0.015137000000000012}},{"text":"Skerlos 2011, Jacobsen forthcoming) and feebates (e.g., Greene 2009), competitiveness of the","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.33684,"width":0.73712,"height":0.015137000000000012}},{"text":"U.S. auto industry (Train and Winston 2007), and market acceptability of alternative-fuel","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.371688,"width":0.700145,"height":0.015137000000000012}},{"text":"vehicles (e.g., Brownstone et al. 1996).","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.406537,"width":0.30685299999999993,"height":0.015137000000000012}},{"text":"The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has been","bbox":{"left":0.434312,"top":0.406537,"width":0.41586399999999996,"height":0.015137000000000012}},{"text":"exploring the use of vehicle choice models for use in analyzing the impacts of its vehicle","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.441385,"width":0.696335,"height":0.015137000000000012}},{"text":"GHG/fuel economy regulations.","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.476234,"width":0.252147,"height":0.015137000000000012}},{"text":"Almost unstudied, though, is the effectiveness of these models in predicting market","bbox":{"left":0.17647,"top":0.511082,"width":0.653871,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"responses to changed circumstances. The models, commonly econometrically estimated, are","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.545931,"width":0.727708,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"used for prospective simulation purposes.","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.580779,"width":0.326068,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"Rarely, though, have researchers used their models to","bbox":{"left":0.453528,"top":0.580779,"width":0.4197840000000001,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"examine situations where model results could be compared to reality.","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.615628,"width":0.5431279999999999,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"It seems evident that the utility of these models for estimating policy impacts should","bbox":{"left":0.17647,"top":0.650476,"width":0.661745,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"depend on their effectiveness in predicting those impacts.","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.685325,"width":0.4507749999999999,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"In addition, models in general have","bbox":{"left":0.57843,"top":0.685325,"width":0.2763359999999999,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"limitations, based on factors such as the purposes for which they are designed, and the data,","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.720173,"width":0.7186179999999999,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"computational, or funding limitations in developing them.","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.755021,"width":0.45410700000000004,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"Deciding the use of consumer vehicle","bbox":{"left":0.581567,"top":0.755021,"width":0.2957470000000001,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"choice modeling in policy analysis, then, should be informed by assessing the utility and limits","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.78987,"width":0.743887,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"of these models.","bbox":{"left":0.117646,"top":0.824718,"width":0.127833,"height":0.015136999999999956}},{"text":"2","bbox":{"left":0.872548,"top":0.921688,"width":0.009785000000000044,"height":0.015136999999999956}}],"images_bbox":[],"images_bbox_not_text_overlap":[]}