{"content":[{"text":"Policy and Macro Signals from Central Bank \n Announcements∗","bbox":{"left":0.145043,"top":0.10948,"width":0.706323,"height":0.06707200000000002}},{"text":"Paul Huberta and Becky Mauleb \n aBanque de France and Sciences Po – OFCE \n bBank of England","bbox":{"left":0.272015,"top":0.205835,"width":0.452233,"height":0.06088100000000002}},{"text":"How do private agents understand central bank actions \n and communication? This paper investigates private agents’ \n interpretation of central bank signals about future policy and \n the macroeconomic outlook that are conveyed by both pol- \n icy decisions and macroeconomic communication. Using U.K. \n data, we assess the eﬀects of these two types of central bank \n announcements on inﬂation swaps and stock returns at daily \n and monthly frequencies. We ﬁnd that policy decisions con- \n vey signals about the macroeconomic outlook at the daily \n frequency, but that policy signals dominate at the monthly \n frequency such that asset prices respond negatively to contrac- \n tionary policy, consistent with the usual transmission mecha- \n nism. We also ﬁnd that inﬂation expectations respond posi- \n tively to the Bank of England’s macroeconomic information \n surprises, consistent with agents taking a signal about the \n economic outlook. \n JEL Codes: E52, E58.","bbox":{"left":0.1868,"top":0.297002,"width":0.6228049999999999,"height":0.322769}},{"text":"∗We thank Christophe Blot, James Cloyne, Camille Cornand, J´erˆome Creel, \n Martin Ellison, Rodrigo Guimar˜aes, Refet G¨urkaynak, Stephen Hansen, Fr´ed´eric \n Jouneau-Sion, Michael McMahon, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Jon Relleen, \n Giovanni Ricco, Garry Young, and seminar participants at the GATE, Bank of \n England, OFCE, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bundesbank, CEPII, Banque \n de France, the Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics 2015, the Workshop \n on Probabilistic Forecasting and Monetary Policy, GDRE 2015, the Central Bank \n Design workshop of the 2015 BGSE Summer Forum, the 2015 World Congress of \n the Econometric Society, and AFSE 2015 for helpful discussions and comments \n at diﬀerent stages of this project. We also thank Simon Strong for research assis- \n tance. Paul Hubert thanks the Bank of England for its hospitality. Any remaining \n errors are our own responsibility. Any views expressed are solely those of the \n authors and so cannot be taken to represent those of Banque de France, Bank \n of England, or members of the Monetary Policy Committee or Financial Policy \n Committee. Corresponding author: paul.hubert@sciencespo.fr. Address: 31 rue \n Croix des Petits Champs, 75001 Paris, France.","bbox":{"left":0.124531,"top":0.641359,"width":0.747161,"height":0.24748199999999998}},{"text":"255","bbox":{"left":0.480836,"top":0.931983,"width":0.03459200000000001,"height":0.018741000000000008}}],"images_bbox":[],"images_bbox_not_text_overlap":[]}