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28March 1995
WORLD TRADE GROWTH IN1994 HIGHEST INALMOST TWO DECADES
GAINS BROADLY BASED ACROSS MOST REGIONS
Worldtradeexpandedstronglyin1994,recordingthelargestyearlygainsince1976,andgrowing
more than twice asfastasin1993. Thepace ofglobal output growth wasalsostronger lastyear than
in1993, butremained well below thegrowth oftrade. Thesubstantial gapbetween trade growth and
output growth in1994 isareflection ofthecontinuing integration ofnational economies through trade.
Prospects for1995 areforacontinuation ofthestrong expansion ofworld trade, although atasomewhat
slower pace than in1994.
These aresome ofthekeypoints from theWTO Secretariat 'sfirstexamination ofworld trade
trends in1994. Highlights from thereport byWTO economists include:
- Thevolume ofworld merchandise exports grew by9percent in1994, thestrongest
annual increase since 1976, andmore thandouble therateof1993. World merchandise output
isestimated tohave increased by3½percent lastyear.
- Higher growth ofworld merchandise trade wasduetoasharp recovery oftrade in
Western Europe, andthecontinuation andstrengthening ofthetrade expansions inAsia, North
America andLatin America.
- Thevalue ofworld merchandise exports exceeded the$US 4,000 billion level in1994
forthefirsttime, onthestrength ofa12percent rise.
- While theworld market ($US) prices ofmany primary commodities rose sharply in
1994, theprice ofcrude petroleum continued todecline, reaching itslowest level since 1988.
Inrealterms, theprice ofpetroleum in1994 wasatitslowest level since 1973, andone-third
ofits1981-82 peak.
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- Tradein"officemachinesandtelecommunicationequipment",whichincludescomputers,
computer parts andsemi-conductors, continued toshow very strong growth, raising theshare
ofthisproduct group inworld merchandise exports to11percent -afigure which exceeds
therespective shares offood, automotive products, chemicals andfuels.
- Theeconomic recovery inWestern Europe ledtoabigswing inthegrowth rates of
theregion 'strade values, from sharply negative in1993 (imports down 10percentandexports
down 7½percent) tostrongly positive in1994 (both exports andimports upmore than 11
percent). Western Europe 'seconomic recovery alsohelped raise thevalue ofexports ofCentral
andEastern Europe byalmost 20percent.
- Asia's15percent riseinthevalue ofmerchandise exports andimports wasmainly
due,ontheimport side, tothestrong recovery ofJapan 'simports (up14percent) andincreases
of20percentormore intheimports ofMalaysia, theRepublic ofKorea andSingapore. On
theexport side, increases of30percentwere recorded forChina andSingapore, andsignificant
export gains were alsorecorded forMalaysia, Thailand andtheRepublic ofKorea.
- Thevalue ofNorth America 'smerchandise imports rose 14percent onthestrength
ofdomestic demand, andexport growth more than doubled to11percent.
- Latin America 's16½percentriseinthevalue ofimports wasthehighest growth rate
among theseven regions. Latin America 'simport growth wasbroadly-based intheregion,
andincreases of20percentormore were recorded byBrazil andMexico, aswellasArgentina
andColombia. Latin America 'sexport growth almost trebled (from 5½percent in1993 to
15percent in1994), boosted bythestrength ofNorth America 'simport demand.
- Exports ofAfrica declined forthefourth consecutive year in1994. One factor was
thelower price ofcrude petroleum ontheworld market. Incontrast, other commodity prices
rose sharply, helping toboost theexport earnings ofleast-developed African countries. The
value ofboth exports andimports oftheMiddle East alsodeclined in1994.
- Limited data onthevalue ofcross-border trade incommercial services point toan
increase ofabout 6percent in1994 to$1,080 billion. Anexpansion oftrade inservices at
arateonly halfthatfortrade inmerchandise isunusual inlight oftheexperience ofthepast
decade, when services trade hasonaverage expanded more rapidly than merchandise trade.
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I.OVERVIEW OFWORLD TRADE IN1994 AND OUTLOOK FOR 19951
Overview ofworld trade in1994
Thevolume ofworld merchandise exports rose9percentin1994, thestrongest annual increase
since 1976, andmore than double therateofgrowth in1993 (Chart 1).2Global merchandise output
isestimated tohave increased by3½percentlastyear, upfrom lessthan1percenttheprevious year.3
Key factors behind lastyear'shigher world trade andoutput growth were theeconomic recovery in
Europe andthecontinuation andstrengthening ofgrowth inAsia, North America andLatin America.4
Themore than proportionate effect ofWestern Europe 'seconomic recovery onitstrade -which rose
three time faster thanoutput -wasafactor behind thebigger gapbetween world trade andoutput growth
in1994. More generally, thesubstantial gapbetween trade growth andoutput growth isareflection
ofthecontinuing integration ofnational economies through trade.
1TheWTO Secretariat 'sfirstexamination oftrade developments in1994 isbased ondataavailable asofmid-March.
Amore detailed andextensive analysis willbepublished inNovember inInternational Trade, Trends andStatistics 1995 .
TheTechnical Annex ofthisreport provides notes onmerchandise trade statistics.
2Alackofdatarules outestimating growth rates forthevolume ofworld trade incommercial services. Anestimate of
thegrowth inthevalue oftrade incommercial services isgiven below.
3Themerchandise output isestimated onthebasis oftheaggregation ofglobal production indices foragriculture, mining
andmanufactures. Incontrast toGDP, services andconstruction arenotincluded.
4Throughout thisreport, North America comprises Canada andtheUnited States.
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Thevalue ofworld merchandise exports recovered sharply in1994, rising by12percent,
following thesmall decline in1993 (Table 1).Behind lastyear'srise-which pushed merchandise
trade above the$US 4,000 billion level forthefirsttime -isthesharp recovery inthevolume growth
ofworld trade. Thefactthatworld trade increased more rapidly invalue terms than involume terms
isexplained primarily bythe3percentincrease inaverage dollar prices forinternationally traded goods,
duetothe"valuation effect" ofthedecline oftheUSdollar inrelation tothecurrencies ofthemajor
traders inEurope andAsia, andthesharp riseinaverage non-fuel commodity prices (Table 4).5In
contrast, theaverage ($US) price ofpetroleum onworld markets declined, reaching itslowest level
since 1988. Inrealterms (that is,deflated byanindex oftheaverage world export price ofmanufactures),
theprice ofpetroleum in1994 wasatitslowest level since 1973, andone-third ofits1981-82 peak.
Table 1
World exports ofmerchandise andcommercial services, 1992-94
(Billion dollars andpercentage)
Value Annual change
1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994
Merchandise 3655 3626 4060 6.3 -0.8 12
Commercial services 1017 1020 1080 12.0 0.5 6
Thelimited dataavailable onthevalue oflastyear'scross-border trade incommercial services
point toanincrease ofabout 6percentto$1,080 billion.6These dataindicate thateach ofthethree
broad categories ofcommercial service trade -transportation, travel (tourism), andother private services
andincome -expanded lessrapidly than world merchandise trade.7Last year'sexperience contrasts
with thatofthepastdecade, when thevalue ofexpenditures ontravel andonother private services
andincome expanded significantly faster thanmerchandise trade, more thanoffsetting theslower growth
ofexpenditures ontransportation.8
5In1994, theUSdollar depreciated against theECU andtheJapanese yenby1.4and11.3 percent, respectively, which
automatically raised thedollar value oftrade originally denominated inWest European currencies andtheyen.
6Statistics forcommercial services aretaken from balance-of-payments statistics, while thestatistics formerchandise trade
aretaken from customs data. These twosetsofdataarenotdirectly comparable because (i)thecountry coverage ofavailable
dataoncommercial services trade islesscomprehensive thanformerchandise trade, and(ii)thedataoncommercial services
trade aresubject toother sources ofbias(seeSection IIIofVolume IofGATT, International Trade 1988-89 foradditional
details onthese andother aspects ofinternational trade incommercial services).
7TheWorld Tourism Organization hasestimated anincrease inglobal earnings from international tourism of5percent
in1994 ("Tourism in1994: Highlights", January 1995). Growth inAsia remained above 10percentin1994, andclose to
10percentinNorth America andLatin America (combined), butearnings were only slightly higher inEurope dueto"lack
ofconsumer confidence andconsumer optimism regarding their personal finances". According totheOECD, tourist receipts
andexpenditures fortheOECD areain1994 were upby5and8percentrespectively (OECD Press Release, March 1995).
8UNCTAD/World Bank, Liberalizing International Transactions inServices ,AHandbook ,p.12.
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Outlook for1995
According toforecasts prepared inearly December 1994, thestrong expansion ofworld trade
wasexpected tocontinue in1995, although atasomewhat slower pace than in1994. These forecasts
were based ontheprospect ofafurther strengthening oftheeconomic recovery inWestern Europe and
thecontinuation ofrapid economic growth indeveloping countries asawhole, with aslowdown in
theimport demand oftheUnited States (due toslower domestic growth) andJapan (which experienced
avery high growth ofimports in1994). These macroeconomic developments were expected tolead
toanincrease inthevolume ofworld merchandise trade ofabout 8percentin1995, compared with
lastyear'sgain of9percent.
Itisnotclear towhat extent these forecasts should beadjusted inthelight oftheturmoil in
world financial markets since theywere prepared. Prospects fortrade andoutput growth innetcapital-
importing developing countries may beadversely affected bytherepercussions ofthepeso crisis in
Mexico. Thesharp appreciation oftheJapanese yenandtheGerman mark, aswell asthestrains on
theEuropean Monetary System, mayslow thepace ofrecovery inJapan andWestern Europe. Although
these developments indicate anincrease inthedownside risks associated withtheforecasts forthecurrent
year, itwould beunduly speculative tobeprecise about thelikely impact oftheincrease inuncertainty
ontheoutlook forGDP andtrade growth fortheremainder of1995.
II.WORLD TRADE IN1994 BYREGION AND BYLEADING TRADER
Volume developments byregion
Akeyfactor behind lastyear'ssharply higher world trade growth wastherecovery oftrade
inWestern Europe .Theregion 'svolume growth ofmerchandise imports was8percent in1994,
compared withacontraction of1½percentinthepreceding year(Table 2).9Most countries inWestern
Europe recorded double-digit import growth in1994, with thenotable exceptions ofGermany and
theUnited Kingdom, which reported more modest import growth.10Higher import demand spilled
over onto Western Europe 'sexport growth -up9percent-duetotheimportance ofintra-regional
trade intheregion 'seconomy. Higher export volume growth wasreported byGermany -which
benefitted from thestrength ofdemand forinvestment goods andautomotive products -andItaly,
Spain, Sweden, Finland andtheUnited Kingdom.
World trade growth wasalsoboosted bythestronger trade expansions inAsia, North America, Latin
America, andCentral/Eastern Europe andtheformer USSR.11ForAsia, North America andLatin America,
1994 wasthethird consecutive yearofimport andexport growth above theworld average. Furthermore, imports
continued toexpand significantly faster thanexports ineach ofthese regions, thereby helping tosustain exports -
andthus thelevel ofoutput andemployment -intheir trading partners.
Asia'smerchandise import volume growth accelerated further in1994 -to13½percent -exceeding
forthefourth consecutive year itsmerchandise export growth. Factors behind theregion 'simport expansion
include thesharply higher imports ofJapan (up13½percent), atatime when thecountry 'sdomestic demand
increased bylessthan 2percent. Imports rosesharply intheRepublic ofKorea andMalaysia (byanestimated
9Western Europe 'strade contraction in1993 wasthemajor factor inthedeceleration ofworld trade growth recorded for
thatyear.
10Theearlier starttotheeconomic recovery intheUnited Kingdom helped itavoid thegeneral import contraction in1993.
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21and25percent, respectively), which more thanoffset theslowdown inChina, Singapore andChinese Taipei.
Asia'smerchandise export growth nearly doubled from theprevious yearduetosharp increases inexport volumes
ofChina andSingapore, andhigher growth ofexports intheRepublic ofKorea. Incontrast, theriseinthevolume
ofJapan 'smerchandise exports wasthesmallest among theworld 'stenleading merchandise exporters.
Table 2
Volume growth ofmerchandise trade forselected regions, 1992-94a
(Annual percentage change)
Exports Imports
1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994
4.5 4.0 9.0 World 5.0 4.0 9.5
7.0 4.5 9.5 North America 7.5 9.5 12.5
8.0 9.0 10.5 Latin America 17.5 11.5 13.5
3.0 1.5 9.0 Western Europe 3.0 -1.5 8.0
3.0 1.5 9.0 European Union (12) 3.5 -2.0 8.0
4.5 4.0 9.5 EFTA 0.5 -0.5 11.5
-3.5 3.0 11.5 Central andEastern Europe and
theformer USSR-5.5 4.5 10.0
5.5 5.5 10.0 Asia 7.0 10.5 13.5
1.5 -1.5 2.0 Japan -0.5 4.0 13.5
7.5 10.5 15.0 SixEast Asian tradersb8.0 12.0 15.0
aNovolume developments arereported forAfrica andtheMiddle East duetotheinsufficient coverage andtheuncertain quality oftheavailable
information.bChinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Republic ofKorea, Malaysia, Singapore andThailand.
NorthAmerica'smerchandise imports -boosted bytheUnited States 'higher growth ofdomestic
demand, up4½percent -increased 12½percent, thelargest volume gain since 1984. Thestrength
offixed investment ledtoasharp increase inimports ofcapital goods, andinparticular ofoffice
machines andtelecommunication equipment. North America 'sexports were up9½percent, twice
therateofthepreceding year, butremained below thelevlofimport growth forthethird consecutive
year.
ForLatin America ,thestrength ofimport demand inNorth America andfrom within theregion,
ledtoariseinexports of10½percent, thelargest annual risesince 1983. Continuing thepattern
ofrecent years, theregion 'simport growth -at13½percent-washigher than export growth. Since
1990, thevolume ofLatin America 'simports hasrisen byabout 70percent, double theexpansion
ofexports. However, lastyear'strade expansion wasmore broadly-based intheregion thaninrecent
years, with theexception ofVenezuela, where import volumes were down byone-third.
Fortheregion comprising Central/Eastern Europe andtheformer USSR ,import andexport
volumes areestimated tohave expanded forthesecond consecutive year, butthemagnitude ofthe
risewasnotsufficient toreverse thelosses recorded between 1990 and1992. Within theregion, the
continuing recovery oftheexports andimports ofCentral andEastern Europe wasduetobroadly-based
gains inmost countries.
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Value developments byregion
Thevalue ofworld merchandise exports recovered sharply in1994, rising by12percent,
following thesmall decline in1993.12Akeyfactor wasthebigswing inthegrowth rates ofWestern
Europe 'strade, from sharply negative in1993 (imports andexports down 10and7½percent,
respectively) tostrongly positive in1994 (both exports andimports upmore than 11percent). In
addition, other regions increased thevalue oftheir merchandise exports andimports (Table 3),with
theexception ofAfrica andtheMiddle East, whose exports andimports continued todecline in1994.
Export earnings ofthese tworegions were affected bythefurther decline inpetroleum prices (Table
4).13Asaresult, thecombined share ofAfrica andtheMiddle Eastinworld merchandise exports fell
toabout 5percentin1994, compared tonearly 7percentin1990. Preliminary estimates onintra-
regional trade developments indicate thattheshare ofintra-regional trade continued toriseinAsia,
North America andLatin America, butstayed level ordeclined inWestern Europe, Africa andthe
Middle East.
Table 3
Value ofworld merchandise trade byregion, 1991-94
(Billion dollars andpercentage)
Exports (f.o.b.) Imports (c.i.f.)
Value Annual change Value Annual change
1994 1992 1993 1994 1994 1992 1993 1994
4060 6.3 -0.8 11.9 World 4196 6.3 -1.0 12.2
679 6.1 4.7 11.2 North America 846 7.9 8.7 13.8
183 4.7 5.7 14.9 Latin America 218 18.9 9.1 16.5
1772 6.0 -7.5 11.7 Western Europe 1787 4.5 -9.9 11.1
1503 6.4 -7.4 11.3 European Union (12) 1525 5.1 -10.4 11.3
239 4.8 -7.5 13.8 EFTA 224 1.0 -10.6 14.8
114 2.7 4.0 13.5 Central andEastern Europe andthe
former USSR111 -1.8 6.4 10.0
53 6.3 -0.7 19.4 Central andEastern Europe 62 10.3 9.4 9.5
90 -2.4 -5.7 -0.9 Africa 92 5.2 -4.3 -3.8
120 3.0 -1.1 -1.6 Middle East 125 15.6 -2.3 -0.2
1103 9.2 7.4 15.2 Asia 1017 6.6 8.3 15.6
397 8.0 6.6 9.6 Japan 275 -1.6 3.6 14.0
121 18.2 8.0 31.9 China 116 26.4 29.0 11.3
418 8.5 8.8 18.1 SixEast Asian tradersa443 7.7 8.1 18.8
aChinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Republic ofKorea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.
12Figures forthetop30traders ofcommercial services in1994 arenotyetavailable. Appendix Table 1liststheleading
exporters andimporters ofcommercial services in1993.
13In1993, theshare offuels inthemerchandise exports ofAfrica andtheMiddle East wasabout 40and70percent,
respectively.
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Theriseinthevalue ofWestern Europe 'sexports andimports ofmore than 11percentwas
duetotheeconomic recovery andthe"valuation effect" oftheappreciation ofthemajor European
currenciesinrelationtotheUSdollar.Intra-Europeantradereboundedsharply,butitsgrowthremained
below thecontinued high rateofexpansion ofextra-regional exports andimports. Within theregion,
therecovery ofexports andimports wasbroadly based (Table 5).Finland andSweden recorded the
highest rates ofexport recovery (24and21percent, respectively), while inTurkey, measures aimed
atstabilizing theeconomy ledtoafallinmerchandise imports of21percent (after asurge of27
percentin1993). Regarding trade developments intheEuropean Union (excluding trade between
itsmembers asinAppendix Table 2),both extra-Community exports andimports continued toexpand
faster than intra-Community trade.
Intheregion composed ofCentral andEastern Europe andtheformer USSR ,thevalue
ofexports andimports continued their recovery, up13½and10percent, respectively. Therecovery
wasmostpronouncedinCentralandEasternEurope,reflectingthereturntomoderateeconomicgrowth,
theprogress made indomestic economic andtrade reforms, aswellastherecovery inWestern Europe,
itsmajor trading partner. Exports ofCentral andEastern Europe expanded byanestimated 20per
centin1994 -faster thanworld trade andwellabove Western Europe 'simport growth -which brought
thelevel ofexports above the1990 level. Import growth (9½percent) waswell below therate
ofexport growth forthefirsttime since 1990. Export growth rates for1994 ranged from 12per
cent (Bulgaria) to36percent (Slovakia). Themost dynamic importers in1994 were theCzech
Republic andHungary (up19and16percent, respectively).
The15percent riseinthevalue ofAsia'strade wasduemainly, ontheimport side, tothe
recovery inJapan 'simports (up14percent) andincreases of20percentormore intheimports of
Malaysia, theRepublic ofKorea andSingapore (among thetop30traders), aswell asViet Nam and
New Zealand. Japan 'sriseinimports wasduetoabove average import growth foroffice machines
andtelecommunication equipment, automotive products, andtextiles andclothing (up33,38and
23percent, respectively). Ontheexport side, increases ofatleast 30percentwere recorded for
China andSingapore, andsignificant export gains were alsorecorded forMalaysia, Thailand and
theRepublic ofKorea.
Inrelation totrade values adecade ago, thedevelopments in1994 confirmed theascendance
ofAsian traders among thetop30traders (Table 5).Thebiggest gains inranking inthepastdecade
(1984-94) have occurred, ontheexport side, forChina (from 20to11),forMalaysia (from 28to
19)andforSingapore (from 21to12),and, ontheimport side, forThailand (from 38to20),for
Malaysia (from 30to18)andforMexico (from 26to16). Thebiggest decline inranking over this
period wasrecorded bySaudi Arabia (from 11to27percent forboth exports andimports).
North America 'smerchandise imports rose14percentonthestrength ofdomestic demand,
andexport growth more thandoubled to11percent. Thestrength ofNorth America 'simport demand
helped boost Latin America 'sexport growth to15percent. Chile 'soutstanding export growth in
1994 (up25percent) wasduenotonly tothesharp riseincopper prices, butalsotothesustained
expansionofnon-traditionalexports.LatinAmerica'simportgrowthof16½percentwasbroadly-based
intheregion. Increases of20percentormore inthevalue ofmerchandise imports were reported
byBrazil andMexico (among thetop30traders), aswell asArgentina andColombia, duetothe
combined effect ofincreased domestic demand, efforts atfurther economic integration (through the
MERCOSUR agreement), andtheavailability offoreign exchange linked tocapital inflows.
Thedecline inthevalue ofAfrica 'smerchandise exports -forthefourth consecutive year-and
imports in1994 conceals highly divergent developments within theregion. South Africa, which alone
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accounts forone-quarter oftheregion 'strade, reported afurther moderate expansion inexports and
asharp riseinimports. Diversified exporters, such asMorocco andTunisia, recorded strong increases
intheir exports, boosted mainly bytheEuropean recovery, which inturnstimulated imports. Formany
oftheleast developed countries inAfrica, whose export earnings depend onalimited number ofprimary
commodities, thesharp increase innon-fuel commodity prices lastyear (Table 4)helped boost export
earnings.Coffee,cocoa,cottonandcopperexperiencedverysharppriceincreasesandfigureprominently
intheexports ofleast-developed African countries. Incontrast, theexport earnings ofcountries where
fuelsarethepredominantexport-Nigeria,Algeria,LibyanArabJamahiriya,Gabon,AngolaandCongo-
were depressed byafurther decline intheprice ofpetroleum andother fuels.
Table 4
Export prices ofprimary commodities, 1991-94
(Annual percentage change)
1992 1993 1994
Food, beverages andtobacco 0 0 13
Food 2 -1 5
Beverages -12 6 72
Agricultural rawmaterials 3 1 11
Minerals andnon-ferrous metals
(excluding crude petroleum) -3 -16 12
Total ofabove 0 -4 12
Crude petroleum 0 -12 -4
Allprimary commodities 0 -5 10
Note: The data inthistable refer tospot market prices which may differ significantly from the
corresponding unit values which, inprinciple, measure theaverage price foralltransactions inagiven period.
Thedevelopments intheworld market price ofcrude petroleum were alsobehind thecontinued
decline inthevalue ofthemerchandise exports andimports oftheMiddle East.Israel andKuwait
aretheonlymajortradersintheregionwhichreportedincreasesintheirmerchandiseexportsandimports.
Thestrongest import declines intheregion in1994 were reported bySaudi Arabia andIran.
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Table 5
Leading exporters and importers inworld merchandise trade, 1994
(Billion dollars andpercentage)
Rank EXPORTERS Value
(f.o.b.)Share Annual change
invalue
in1994Rank IMPORTERS Value
(c.i.f)Share Annual change
invalue
in1994
1 United States 512.7 12.3 10 1 United States 689.2 16.0 14
2 Germany 421.9 10.1 11 2 Germany 376.6 8.7 10
3 Japan 397.0 9.5 10 3 Japan 275.4 6.4 14
4 France 236.0 5.7 12 4 France 229.5 5.3 13
5 United Kingdom 205.2 4.9 14 5 United Kingdom 227.1 5.2 10
6 Italy 189.1 4.5 12 6 Italy 166.0 3.9 12
7 Canada 165.8 4.0 14 7 Hong Kong 163.1 3.8 15
8 Hong Kong 152.7 3.7 13 -retained importsa39.2 0.9 13
-domestic exports 28.9 0.7 0 8 Canada 156.0 3.6 12
-re-exports 123.9 2.9 16 9 Netherlands 139.8 3.2 10
9 Netherlands 148.9 3.6 7 10 Belgium-Luxembourg 125.7 2.9 15
10 Belgium-Luxembourg 131.1 3.1 9
11 China 121.0 2.9 32 11 China 115.7 2.7 11
12 Singapore 96.3 2.3 30 12 Korea, Rep. of 102.3 2.4 22
-domestic exports 57.9 1.1 24 13 Singapore 102.3 2.4 20
-re-exports 38.4 0.9 41 -retained importsa63.8 1.5 10
13 Korea, Rep. of 96.3 2.3 17 14 Spain 93.2 2.2 13
14 Chinese Taipei 93.1 2.2 10 15 Chinese Taipei 85.4 2.0 11
15 Spain 73.0 1.7 16 16 Mexicob80.1 1.9 20
16 Switzerland 70.1 1.7 11 17 Switzerland 67.7 1.6 11
17 Mexicob60.6 1.5 16 18 Malaysia 58.9 1.4 29
18 Sweden 60.2 1.4 21 19 Austria 55.1 1.3 13
19 Malaysia 58.8 1.4 25 20 Thailand 54.5 1.3 18
20 Russian Fed.C48.0 ... ...
21 Australia 47.5 1.1 11 21 Australia 53.4 1.2 17
22 Austria 44.9 1.1 12 22 Sweden 51.0 1.2 19
23 Thailand 44.3 1.1 21 23 Brazil 36.1 0.8 30
24 Brazil 43.6 1.0 13 24 Denmark 34.3 0.8 16
25 Indonesia 40.1 1.0 9 25 Indonesia 31.9 0.7 13
26 Denmark 39.8 1.0 10 26 Russian Fed.c28.2 ... ...
27 Saudi Arabia 38.6 0.9 -7 27 Saudi Arabia 27.1 0.6 -12
28 Norway 33.2 0.8 4 28 Norway 26.9 0.6 12
29 Ireland 32.6 0.8 12 29 Israel 26.2 0.6 16
30 Finland 29.0 0.7 24 30 India 26.0 0.6 14
Worldd4183.0 100.0 12 Worldd4320.0 100.0 12
aRetained imports aredefined asimports less re-exports.
bIncludes shipments through processing zones (maquiladoras).
cOfficial national estimates. These estimates arenotretained inregional andworld totals. Partner data point tosubstantially larger imports oftheRussian Federation.
dIncluding Hong Kong re-exports.
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III. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEVELOPMENTS
Among thefour G-7countries which recorded current account deficits in1994, tworeported
smaller deficits (Canada andtheUnited Kingdom), andtworeported larger deficits (theUnited States
andGermany), ineach caseexpressed asashare ofGDP (Chart 2).Japan andFrance recorded declines
intheir current account surpluses asashare ofGDP, while Italy reported anincreased surplus. For
themost part, these changes reflect developments indomestic demand in1994: relatively stronger
domestic demand tended toincrease current account deficits andreduce surpluses through higher
absorption ofbothdomestic production andimports, while relatively weaker domestic demand generally
hadtheopposite effects. However, thecurrent account imbalances ofthemajor traders continue to
berelatively modest when compared tothelevels recorded inthesecond halfofthe1980s.
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ANNEX -NOTE ONMERCHANDISE TRADE STATISTICS
POLITICAL BOUNDARIES
Changes inpolitical boundaries since 1991 involving theformer USSR, theformer Czech and
Slovak Republic andtheformer Yugoslavia arenotreflected inthetrade dataprovided inthisreport
duetotheabsence ofreliable data corresponding tothenew boundaries. Thestatistics provided in
thisreport therefore exclude trade among thesuccessor states ofthese former political entities.
HONG KONG RE-EXPORTS
Hong Kong re-exports, amounting to$124 billion in1994 and80percentofHong Kong 'stotal
exports, areexcluded from regional andworld totals unless indicated otherwise, inorder toeliminate
alarge element ofdouble-counting.
TRADE STATISTICS OFTHE EUROPEAN UNION
Theintroduction ofanewsystem forEUtrade statistics inJanuary 1993 -INTRASTAT, linked
totheestablishment oftheSingle Market -affected reported EUmerchandise trade datainnumerous
ways.Methodologicalchangeshavecausedabreakinthetimeseries,andthedifficultiesinimplementing
thenewsystem resulted inmarkedly delayed reporting andnumerous revisions oftrade data. Atthe
beginning of1995, thequality andtimeliness ofEUtrade statistics arenotyetcomparable tothose
achieved under theprevious system.
Oneofthemajor problems istheemergence ofalarge discrepancy between reported intra-EU
exports andintra-EU imports for1993 and1994. Prior to1993, reported intra-EU imports (c.i.f.) closely
matched reported intra-EU exports (f.o.b.). In1993 and1994, however, thereported value ofintra-EU
imports wasnearly 7percent(ormore than$50billion) below thevalue ofintra-EU exports, indicating
asubstantial under-reporting ofintra-EU imports. Given theimportance ofthisinconsistency andits
effect onregional andworld totals, theWTO Secretariat hasused intra-EU export data toadjust for
theunder-reporting ofintra-EU imports (Table 3).However, thisadjustment could notbemade to
thenational dataofEUmember countries (Table 5).Therefore, theunadjusted imports ofindividual
EUmember countries inTable 5donotadduptotheaggregate figure forEUimports reported elsewhere.
This adjustment isalsoreflected inthevolume estimates (Table 2).
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Appendix Table 1
Leading exporters and importers inworld trade incommercial services, 1993
(Billion dollars andpercentage)
Rank EXPORTERS Value Share Annual change
invalue
in1993Rank IMPORTERS Value Share Annual change
invalue i
n1993
1 United States 167.5 16.4 4 1 United States 113.4 11.5 8
2 France 100.8 9.9 -2 2 Germany 111.9 11.3 -3
3 Germany 61.8 6.1 -8 3 Japan 100.7 10.2 3
4 Italy 59.0 5.8 -8 4 France 83.3 8.4 -1
5 United Kingdom 53.5 5.2 -5 5 Italy 58.8 5.9 -16
6 Japan 53.2 5.2 7 6 United Kingdom 44.4 4.5 -5
7 Netherlands 37.0 3.6 1 7 Netherlands 35.9 3.6 -2
8 Belgium-Luxembourg 36.7 3.6 2 8 Belgium-Luxembourg 32.3 3.3 -3
9 Spain 31.7 3.1 -12 9 Canada 27.1 2.7 1
10 Austria 29.7 2.9 -1 10 Chinese Taipei 21.3 2.2 11
11 Hong Kong 28.9 2.8 16 11 Austria 21.1 2.1 6
12 Singapore 20.8 2.0 11 12 Spain 19.3 1.9 -13
13 Switzerland 19.7 1.9 0 13 Switzerland 16.8 1.7 -6
14 Canada 16.7 1.6 3 14 Korea, Rep. of 16.5 1.7 13
15 Korea, Rep. of 15.4 1.5 20 15 Hong Kong 16.0 1.6 9
16 Mexico 14.3 1.4 6 16 Saudi Arabia 13.9 1.4 -8
17 Chinese Taipei 13.8 1.4 29 17 Norway 13.9 1.4 -6
18 Denmark 12.8 1.3 -14 18 Sweden 13.6 1.4 -30
19 Norway 12.6 1.2 -6 19 Australia 13.1 1.3 -5
20 Sweden 12.6 1.2 -21 20 Thailand 11.8 1.2 20
21 Thailand 11.2 1.1 17 21 China 11.6 1.2 26
22 China 10.9 1.1 21 22 Singapore 11.5 1.2 14
23 Australia 10.9 1.1 3 23 Mexico 11.2 1.1 -3
24 Turkey 9.4 0.9 13 24 Denmark 10.0 1.0 -7
25 Greece 8.5 0.8 -4 25 Indonesia 8.8 0.8 11
26 Egypt 7.4 0.7 1 26 Brazil 8.7 0.9 36
27 Philippines 6.9 0.7 2 27 Malaysia 8.3 0.8 8
28 Portugal 6.8 0.7 19 28 Israel 7.2 0.7 12
29 Israel 6.2 0.6 5 29 Finland 6.4 0.6 -15
30 Malaysia 5.9 0.6 7 30 Portugal 5.5 0.6 20
Total ofabove 883.0 86.5 - Total ofabove 874.4 88.3 -
World 1020.0 100.0 1 World 990.0 100.0 0
Note : When considering theranking ofcountries, itshould bekept inmind that thedata arenotalways fully comparable across countries.
Forannual data for1983-92, seeAppendix Tables A5and A6ofGATT, International Trade Trends andStatistics, 1994 .
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Appendix Table 2
Leading exporters and importers inworld merchandise trade (excluding European Union intra-trade), 1994
(Billion dollars and percentage)
Rank EXPORTERS Value
(f.o.b.)Share Annual change
invalue
in1994Rank IMPORTERS Value
(c.i.f.)Share Annual change
invalue
in1994
1 European Union (12) 638.0 19.2 13 1 United States 689.2 20.0 14
2 United States 512.7 15.4 10 2 European Union (12) 656.6 19.0 13
3 Japan 397.0 12.0 10 3 Japan 275.4 8.0 14
4 Canada 165.8 5.0 14 4 Hong Kong 163.1 4.7 15
5 Hong Kong 152.7 4.6 13 -retained importsa39.2 1.1 13
-domestic exports 28.9 0.9 0 5 Canada 156.0 4.5 12
-re-exports 123.9 3.7 16 6 China 115.7 3.4 11
6 China 121.0 3.6 32 7 Korea, Rep. of 102.3 3.0 22
7 Singapore 96.4 2.9 30 8 Singapore 102.3 3.0 20
-domestic exports 57.9 1.7 24 -retained importsa63.8 1.8 10
-re-exports 38.4 1.2 41 9 Chinese Taipei 85.4 2.5 11
8 Korea, Rep. of 96.3 2.9 17 10 Mexicob80.1 2.3 20
9 Chinese Taipei 93.1 2.8 10
10 Switzerland 70.1 2.1 11
11 Mexicob60.6 1.8 16 11 Switzerland 67.7 2.0 11
12 Sweden 60.2 1.8 21 12 Malaysia 58.9 1.7 29
13 Malaysia 58.8 1.8 25 13 Austria 55.1 1.6 13
14 Russian Fed.c48.0 ... ... 14 Thailand 54.5 1.6 18
15 Australia 47.5 1.4 11 15 Australia 53.4 1.5 17
16 Austria 44.9 1.4 12 16 Sweden 51.0 1.5 19
17 Thailand 44.3 1.3 21 17 Brazil 36.1 1.0 30
18 Brazil 43.6 1.3 13 18 Indonesia 31.9 0.9 13
19 Indonesia 40.1 1.2 9 19 Russian Fed.c28.2 ... ...
20 Saudi Arabia 38.6 1.2 -7 20 Saudi Arabia 27.1 0.8 -12
21 Norway 33.2 1.0 4 21 Norway 26.9 0.8 12
22 Finland 29.0 0.9 24 22 Israel 26.2 0.8 16
23 South Africa 25.0 0.8 3 23 India 26.0 0.8 14
24 India 24.4 0.7 13 24 South Africa 23.0 0.7 15
25 United Arab Emirates 19.7 0.6 -5 25 Turkey 23.0 0.7 -21
26 Turkey 18.0 0.5 17 26 Philippines 22.5 0.7 20
27 Israel 16.5 0.5 12 27 Finland 22.2 0.6 23
28 Poland 16.5 0.5 17 28 Argentina 21.7 0.6 29
29 Argentina 15.5 0.5 18 29 United Arab Emirates 21.1 0.6 8
30 Venezuela 14.9 0.5 6 30 Poland 20.0 0.6 6
Worldd3318.0 100.0 13 Worldd3451.0 100.0 13
aRetained imports aredefined asimports less re-exports.
bIncludes shipments through processing zones (maquiladoras).
cOfficial national estimates. These estimates arenotretained inregional and world totals. Partner data point tosubstantially larger imports oftheRussian Federation.
dIncluding Hong Kong re-exports.
END