RESTRICTED
WORLD TRADE IMA/W/11
2June1997
ORGANIZATION(97-2304)
International Bovine Meat Agreement
INTERNATIONAL MEAT COUNCIL
Situation andOutlook intheInternational Meat Markets
Note bytheSecretariat
TheInternational Bovine Meat Agreement entered intoeffect on1January 1995. Itreplaced
theArrangement Regarding Bovine Meat which hadoperated since 1980. Thefollowing countries
areParties totheInternational Bovine MeatAgreement: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada,
Chad, Colombia, theEuropean Communities (15),Japan, NewZealand, Norway, Paraguay, Romania,
South Africa, Switzerland, theUnited States andUruguay.
Theprimary objectives oftheAgreement, likeitspredecessor, aretopromote theexpansion,
liberalization andstability oftheinternational meatandlivestock market byimproving theinternational
framework ofworld trade tothebenefit ofconsumers andproducers, importers andexporters; to
encouragegreaterinternationalco-operationinallaspectsaffectingtradeinbovinemeatandliveanimals;
andtosecure additional benefits fortheinternational tradeofdeveloping countries inbovine meatand
liveanimals.
Thepresent report hasbeenprepared bytheSecretariat inaccordance withArticle IV:1(a)
oftheAgreement. Thereport contains asummary oftheinternational situation andoutlook forbovine
meat andspecific elements oftheworld beefeconomy onacountry-by-country basis aswellas
summaries ofthesituation andoutlook forpigmeat, poultry meatandsheepmeat. Thereport isbased
onthefollowing sources: responses oftheParties totheAgreement tothestatistical questionnaire;
United States Department ofAgriculture (USDA) reports; theNational Cattle Market Bulletin ,Cattle
Council ofAustralia; Australian Commodities ,Australian Bureau ofAgricultural Research and
Economics (ABARE); MeatandLivestock Review, Australian MeatandLivestock Corporation; Meat
Board News,NewZealand Meat Board; European Weekly Market Survey Commentary, Meat and
Livestock Commission, United Kingdom; Informe Ganadero, Buenos Aires; PROCAR, Sistema
deInformación deMercados, Argentina ;PreçosAgricolas, Boletim Mensal, Brazil; Agra Europe;
Food andAgriculture Organization (FAO) reports andstatistics andother selected national andprivate
sources.IMA/W/11
Page3
TABLE OFCONTENTS
Page
HIGHLIGHTS .................................................5
THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS FOR BEEF ..........................7
Trends inMajor BeefMarkets ...................................7
International BeefPrices .......................................9
Veterinary Trade Policy Developments .............................11
WTO Dispute Settlement affecting Meat .............................12
MEAT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS INSELECTED COUNTRIES .............13
WESTERN EUROPE ............................................13
European Communities .......................................13
Norway .................................................17
Switzerland ............................................18
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE .................................19
Bulgaria .................................................19
Hungary .................................................20
Poland ..................................................20
Romania ................................................21
Russia ..................................................21
SOUTH AMERICA ..............................................22
Argentina ................................................22
Brazil ..................................................24
Colombia ................................................25
Paraguay ................................................26
Uruguay .................................................26
NORTH AMERICA .............................................28
Canada .................................................28
Mexico .................................................29
United States ..............................................30
OCEANIA ...................................................33
Australia ................................................33
NewZealand ..............................................35
ASIA .......................................................37
Japan ...................................................37
Korea ..................................................39
AFRICA .....................................................40
South Africa ..............................................40
Symbols: Thefollowing symbols areusedinthisreport:
... Notavailable
- NilornegligibleIMA/W/11
Page5
HIGHLIGHTS
TheTideisTurning intheInternational BeefMarkets
Theinternational markets forbeeflookpoised forarecovery from adownturn thatbegan in
1994. There aresigns thatthecattle liquidation intheUnited States isapproaching itsendandthat
prices willrecover asfrom late1997, promising higher imports andbetter returns forOceanian,
South American andother suppliers intheUSmarket. Moreover, world beefconsumption isexpected
torecover fromthediplastyear, which wascaused byBSEandother meatsafety concerns andwhich
threw theECbeefmarket offbalance, withlarge intervention stocks accumulating inthecourse of
1996. While theEChasalready addressed the"BSE crisis" withanumber ofmeasures, further reforms
ofthebeefsector havebeenannounced forthisyear.
AnOutbreak ofFoot-and-Mouth Disease inChinese Taipei Leaves
aBigGapinJapan 'sImport Market forPork
Forthebetter partofthepasttwoyears, Japan usedsafeguard measures onporkimports to
curbdouble-digit growth ofimports. Anentirely newsituation hasarisen withtherecent outbreak
offoot-and-mouth disease inChinese Taipei which prompted anexport ban.Lastyear,Chinese Taipei
supplied 40percent,or380,000 tonnes, ofJapan'sporkimports. Thefocus isnowonthequestion
ofwhich exporters maycapture thenewexport opportunities. While largestocks havesofarprevented
ashortage ofpork inJapan, prices inthemajor supplying countries, theEC(Denmark) andthe
United States, haverisensharply. Todate,Japan hasnotrevoked thegateprice-based safeguard which
expires attheendofJune1997.
Korea Liberalizes itsImport Regime forPork andChicken thisYear
On30June1997, Korea willphase outquantitative restrictions onfrozen porkandpoultry
meatandreplace thequotas bytariffs. Thismeasure islikely toweaken thecompetitiveness ofbeef,
although domestic demand isgrowing foralltypes ofmeat. Beefimports willremain subject to
quantitative restrictions untiltheyear2001 asspecified inKorea 'sUruguay Round Schedule.
Several WTO Members have Negotiated Veterinary "Equivalency Agreements"
Based onPrinciples oftheSPSAgreement
Anumber ofWTO Members haveconcluded, orareintheprocess ofnegotiating, veterinary
trade agreements thatarebased ontheconcepts ofequivalence andregionalization contained inthe
WTOAgreementontheApplicationofSanitaryandPhytosanitaryMeasures(SPSAgreement).Members
thereby recognize thatequally safefoodproducts canbeachieved through equivalent -notidentical -
measures. Thisfacilitates trade byreducing thecostofcompliance. On1January 1997, abilateral
sanitary agreement between theECandNewZealand came intoforce, inwhich bothtrading partners
accept eachother'ssanitary measures intheareas ofanimal health andmeat hygiene. Incaseofa
disease outbreak, bothparties undertake toexempt regions fromtrade measures which areunaffected
bythedisease ("regionalization"). TheECandtheUnited States recently reached aveterinary
equivalency agreement thatwilltakeeffect on1October 1997. Thisagreement covers meatandmeat
products, except poultry meat.IMA/W/11
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Several Meat Trade-Related Disputes Brought totheWTO
InMay1996, aWTO dispute settlement panel wasestablished toexamine theEC'sbanon
imports ofmeatfrom hormone-treated livestock. TheUnited States challenges thebanarguing that
itadversely affects itsexports ofmeatandmeatproducts toECandthatitisinconsistent withtheEC's
WTO obligations, including those under theSPSAgreement. InOctober 1996, aseparate panel was
established onthismatter onrequest byCanada. Thereports ofbothpanels areexpected tobecirculated
toWTO Members inthesummer of1997.
InFebruary 1997, apanel wasestablished, attherequest ofArgentina, Australia, NewZealand
andtheUnited States, toexamine analleged breach byHungary ofitsUruguay Round export subsidy
commitments. Thisdispute involves, butisnotconfined to,meat andmeat products. Formal
consultations areunder waybetween theECandJapan concerning Japan'ssafeguard measure onpork
imports. InFebruary 1997, Brazil requested consultations withtheECtosettle adispute concerning
theimplementation oftheECtariffquota forpoultry meat. InApril 1997, theUnited States requested
dispute settlement consultations withthePhilippines regarding theirimplementation oftariff quotas
forporkandpoultry.IMA/W/11
Page7
THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS FOR BEEF
1. Adepressed market due,among otherfactors, totheBSEscare, surging feedcostsandexchange
ratedevelopments made 1996 aparticularly difficult yearforbeefproducers andtraders. Thisyear
maywellbeatransition period towards abetter 1998. There aremainly three reasons forcautious
optimism. Firstofall,USbeefproduction hasreached itscyclical peakandsupplies willtighten as
from nextyear. Rising USbeefprices areinturnexpected toincrease USnet-imports. Second, as
fortheBSEimpact which hasdented beefconsumption farbeyond theEC,theworst mayhavepassed
andconsumption mayrecover. However, asaresult ofBSE, large andgrowing ECstocks are
overhanging thebeefmarket. Thirdly, export volumes ofsome major exporters either decreased last
yearorincreased lessthanpreviously expected (Table 1).Moreover, export performance ofmost
major exporters washampered bytheappreciating USdollar (aswellastheAustralian, Canadian and
NewZealand dollar), thereby reducing export returns indomestic currency. Thesharp upswing of
thedollar mayalsohaveapproached itsend.
Trends inMajor BeefMarkets
2. InNorth America ,theUScattle herdhadbeenincreasing since 1989. Lastyear, fullscale
cattle liquidation began, sparked offbyrecord cornprices andpoorforage conditions. Cattle prices
plunged andcowslaughter surged tothehighest levelforadecade. Thenowmuch reduced cowherd
setsthestage foramarket recovery intheyears tocome. Cattle liquidation isexpected tocontinue
thisyearandthere willtherefore benoimmediate relief interms ofaprice recovery. Although cow
slaughter isforecast todropthisyear, large numbers ofcattle coming outoffeedlots willcontinue
toputpressure onthemarket andaverage slaughter weights arelikely torise(duetoahigher proportion
offedsteers vis-à-vis heifers). Onbalance, USproduction isforecast toremain unchanged thisyear.
Asthesupplies ofcowbeefdecline, imports ofbeef(forprocessing) from Oceania areexpected to
pickup.Nextyear, tightening supplies ofgrainfed beefmayalsodampen UScompetitiveness onits
overseas markets. Canada isfollowing thecyclical pattern setbytheUnited States. However, inCanada
anevenstronger expansion ofproduction andexports occurred lastyear. Production isforecast to
further increase thisyear, largely duetoalarge number offeedlot cattle stillinthepipeline. Asa
result, Canada isexpected tosubstantially increase net-exports thisyear. InMexico, drought caused
asharp drop offeeder cattle exports totheUnited States in1996. Tightening supplies inthe
United States areexpected tostimulate larger Mexican shipments thisyear.
3. InEurope ,theannouncement bytheGovernment oftheUnited Kingdom on20March 1996
ofapossible linkbetween beefconsumption andseveral newcases ofCreutzfeld-Jakob disease sparked
aconfidence crisis. ECbeefconsumption initially dropped sharply (upto50percentinseveral member
States) andwhile itsubsequently recovered, itdidnotreach thepre-March 1996 level. For1996 as
awhole, ECconsumption decreased by7percent. Poultry meat, andtoalesser extent pigmeat and
sheepmeat, benefited fromasurge indemand foralternative meats. TheECimplemented anumber
ofmeasures toaddress thesupply-demand imbalance inthebeefmarket arising fromthe"BSE crisis",
including slaughter programmes, income support, extensification programmes, intervention purchases,
increased export subsidies, sanitary measures andbeefpromotion. Oneoftheresults wasthat
intervention stocks which werevirtually exhausted atthebeginning of1996 grew to434,000 tonnes
bytheendof1996. For1997, theceiling onintervention purchases (other thansafety netintervention)
issetat500,000 tonnes. Despite animport banimposed byseveral thirdcountries, ECexports were
brisk, aided byhigher export subsidies. Theexport prospects for1997 depend, notleast, onthe
BSE-related import policy ofthirdcountries. Recently, Russia followed other countries inbanning
imports from anumber ofECmember States. Lastyear, cattle liquidation continued inRussia. As
aresult, beefimports made upforagrowing proportion ofdomestic supplies. Nochange inthese
trends isforeseen thisyear.IMA/W/11
Page8
4. InSouth America ,Argentina 'scattle industry hasnotyetreached theturning point towards
theexpected expansion. Theherddeclined again lastyearandanother dropisexpected thisyear,mainly
duetodeclining domestic consumption, drought andattractive alternatives tocattle raising. Highgrain
andoilseeds prices induced farmers toexpand cropproduction andreduce supplementary cattle feeding.
Exports dropped sharply lastyear, evenmore soinvalue thanvolume terms. Thisyear'sexports are
expected torecover fromlastyear'sdented levels. Incontrast toArgentina anddespite theunfavourable
situationontheinternationalbeefmarkets,bothBrazilandUruguaysucceededinsignificantlyimproving
theirexport performance lastyear. InBrazil, exports weredriven byagrowing overall meatsurplus.
Lastyear, beefproduction recovered sharply afterthedrought in1995 while thegrowth ofdomestic
consumption slowed down aftertheinitial stimulus resulting fromtheimplementation oftheRealPlan.
Theprospects areforincreasing net-exports intheyears tocome. Uruguay 'sincrease inexports was
largely duetohigher shipments toBrazil andtheUnited States. Withdomestic demand weak, Uruguay
fullyutilized itsnewly gained access opportunities foruncooked beefintheUnited States (aduty-free
20,000 tonne tariff quota allocation).
5. AsforOceania ,Australia andNewZealand hadadifficult yearontheirmajor traditional export
markets, inparticular theUnited States, Japan andKorea. Australia andNewZealand areamong those
countries having sought foryears improved market access forbeefintheUnited States. Now that
theUruguay Round hasresulted inmore favourable market access opportunities, market conditions
aresuchthatbothAustralia andNewZealand finditunattractive, forthetimebeing, tofullytake
advantage ofthem. Lastyear, NewZealand filled onlythree-quarters ofitstariff quota allocation
intheUnited States, asmaller proportion thanin1995. Australia 'sutilization ofitstariff quota share
evendropped to50percent. Following adecrease inoverall exports in1996, Australia 'sexports
areforecast torebound thisyear, spurred bytighter supplies ofmanufacturing beefintheUSmarket
andamoderate recovery ofimports byJapan andKorea.
6. InAsia,lastyear'simportgrowthinJapanandKoreawassignificantlybelowearlierexpectations.
InJapan, theimpact ofBSE, foodpoisoning duetoE.coli bacteria, andtheyendepreciation ledto
thefirstdecline inimports afteryears ofdouble-digit growth. Thisyear'sprospects arehighly uncertain,
dependingonfactorssuchasconsumerconfidenceinmeatsafetyandfurtherexchangeratedevelopments.
TheFMD-related banonporkimports fromChinese Taipei islikely tohaveapositive impact onbeef
imports. InKorea, imports stagnated lastyear, mainly astheresult ofhealth concerns, aslowdown
inincome growth anddomestic supply pressures. Thisyear,USDA forecasts Korea 'simports toexceed
its222,000 tonne minimum access commitment (c.w.e.) by5percent.IMA/W/11
Page9
Table 1-World Beef Trade Forecast for1997
Major importers Major exporters
Country 1996 1997 1996/95 1997/96 Country 1996 1997 1996/95 1997/96
('000tonnes) (%Change) ('000tonnes) (%Change)
United
States940 1,034 -1 10 Australia 1,016 1,080 -7½ 6½
Japan 871 870 -7½ 0EC 960 910 -4 -5
Russia 650 670 6 3United
States849 860 3 1½
EC 360 380 -2½ 5½ New
Zealand536 568 4½ 6
Korea 196 234 1 20 Argentina 460 480 -11½ 4½
Canada 237 200 -7½ -15½ Brazil 315 360 17 14½
Mexico 60 93 43 55 Canada 286 296 30½ 3½
Brazil 100 80 -21½ -20 Uruguay 210 210 32 0
Note: Beef andveal, inmetric tonnes, carcass weight equivalent.
Source: AMLC, MLC, USDA, WTO.
International BeefPrices
7. TheUnited States account forclosetoone-quarter ofworld imports. Roughly another quarter
isimported byJapan andKorea. Given their weight inworld production (inthecaseofthe
United States) andintrade, these markets settheprice trends forvarious beefcutsintheFMD-free
zone.1
8. International beefprices intheFMD-free zone were strong inearly 1994, inboththe
United States andtheAsian markets. Duetoasignificant increase ofUSbeefproduction (up6per
centin1994), UScattle prices began todroplaterin1994. Thepaceofcowliquidation picked up,
aslower prices forfinished cattle werepassed ontocow-calf operators (whoproduce thebulkoffeeder
cattle intheUnited States). Since thencow-calf operators, onaverage, havemade losses stimulating
further cattle liquidation. Prices forfinished cattle reached aneight-year lowinMarch 1995. One
yearlater, cattle prices hadfallen byanother 10percent. Prices strengthened temporarily inthesecond
halfof1996 asfeedlot inventories declined (Chart 1,series VI).
9. Chart 2presents pricedevelopments ontheUSmanufacturing beefmarket. Inthefirstquarter
of1995, USprices forfreshboneless beef(forfurther processing) stood atUS$2,300 pertonne, about
US$500 lower thanoneyearearlier. ByApril 1996, prices haddropped byanother US$700 pertonne.
InMarch 1997, USbeefprices surged 30percentcompared toonemonth earlier, resulting inthe
highest prices fortwoyears. Thisprice increase mainly reflects lower UScowslaughter. Australian
cattle prices meeting USrequirements (Chart 1,priceseries III)roughly trackUSboneless beefprices
(series VII). Prices remained depressed throughout 1996andarenotexpected torecover fundamentally
before late1997.
1Itshould benoted thatinthisreport several oftheprice charts fortheFMD-free zone arebased onAustralian prices
(converted toUSdollars) forcattle meeting therequirements forexport asbeeftotheUnited States, Japan andKorea (see
attachment).IMA/W/11
Page12
WTO Dispute Settlement affecting Meat
13. InMayandOctober 1996, twoseparate dispute settlement panels wereestablished, onrequest
bytheUnited States andCanada, respectively, toexamine theWTO consistency oftheECbanon
imports ofmeatfromhormone-treated livestock. Thereports ofbothpanels areexpected tobecirculated
toMembers inthesummer of1997. InFebruary 1997, apanel wasestablished concerning analleged
breach byHungary ofitsUruguay Round export subsidy commitments, including, butnotconfined
to,meatandmeatproducts. Thepanel notwithstanding, theComplaining Parties -Argentina, Australia,
NewZealand andtheUnited States -aswellasHungary expressed thehopethatamutually satisfactory
solution totheirdispute could befound. InJanuary 1997, theECrequested formal consultations with
Japan under theWTO dispute settlement procedures, claiming thatJapan'ssafeguard measures adversely
affected porkimports from theECandwere inconsistent withJapan'sobligations under theGATT
(paragraph 95etseq.). InFebruary 1997, Brazil requested formal consultations withtheECconcerning
theECduty-free tariff quota forpoultry meat (15,500 tonnes). Intheview ofBrazil, theEC's
implementation ofthistariffquota doesnotrespect theresult ofthebilateral negotiations under GATT
Article XXVIII. Atissuearecompensation matters following thesecond GATT oilseeds panel involving
theEC.InApril 1997, theUnited States requested formal consultations withthePhilippines regarding
theimplementation oftheirtariff quotas forporkandpoultry.IMA/W/11
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MEAT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS INSELECTED COUNTRIES
WESTERN EUROPE
European Communities
TheBovine Meat Market
14. Justwhen theECbeefeconomy hadstabilized attheendofacyclical downturn andintervention
stocks were atanall-time low,theannouncement bythegovernment oftheUnited Kingdom, on
20March 1996, ofseveral newcases ofCreutzfeld-Jacob disease andapossible linktothemadcow
disease (BSE) struck thecattle industry. Henceforth, BSE-related consumer fears drove market
developments andpolicies.
15. Beefandvealproduction intheEC(15)remained almost unchanged lastyear. Adecrease
inslaughter numbers, almost solely duetothevarious BSE-related slaughter programmes, wasoffset
byhigher slaughter weights, partly duetodelayed slaughter astheresult ofBSE, partly duetoafurther
increase intheproportion ofsuckler cows. In1997, beefandvealproduction isforecast todecrease
by1percentto7.9million tonnes, withincreases expected onlyinIreland, France andPortugal.
16. ECbeefconsumption stood at20.1kgs.percapita in1995 (down from 22kgs.in1990).
TheUKgovernment 'sannouncement prompted asharp decline inbeefconsumption (upto50percent
inseveral member States) andwhile itsubsequently recovered, consumption didnotreach thepre-March
1996 level. For1996 asawhole, consumption decreased by7percentto6.9million tonnes.
Table 2-TheBovine Meat Sector intheEC
European Communities Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 7,966 7,960 7,900 0 -1
Consumption '000t. 7,479 6,937 7,076 -7 2
percapita kgs. 20.1 18.6 18.9 -7½ 1½
Imports '000t. 369 360 380 -2½ 5½
Exports '000t. 1,001 960 910 -4 -5
Intervention stocks (year end) '000t. 18 434 728 2,400 167½
Note: Imports/exports exclude offal.
Source: MLC based onECCommission.
17. "Over-thirty month" slaughter scheme .Asafirststeptocontain anyrisktopublic health,
theECdecided thattheUnited Kingdom slaughter andincinerate allcattle over30months ofage(where
theincidence ofBSEisconsidered tobehighest). Lastyear, 1.6million headofcattle were thus
destroyed (14percentoftheUKherd) anditisestimated thatoveraperiod of5to7years, 4½to
5½million headofcattle willberemoved from thefoodchain. Aglobal banonexports ofbovine
meat(products) andlivecattle fromtheUnited Kingdom wasputinplace andremains inforce. Other
measures include:IMA/W/11
Page14
- "Calf processing" aidscheme .Under thisscheme, theECsubsidizes theslaughter
ofcalves toreduce future beefproduction (currently ECU 150fordairy calves and
ECU 145forbeefcalves). Thus, 415,000 calves wereculled in1996, mostly inthe
UnitedKingdombuttheschemewasalsoimplementedinFrance,IrelandandPortugal.2
- "Early marketing" scheme. Asanalternative totheabove slaughter scheme, producers
aresubsidized fortheearly slaughter ofcalves. Thismeasure isaimed atreducing
currentvealandfuturebeefsupplies.TheECCommissionconsidersthecalfprocessing
scheme tobemore effective thantheearly marketing programme inreducing future
beefproduction.
- Income support .TheECoffered direct income support tobeef producers
(ECU 500million in1996). Inaddition, theBeef Special andtheSuckler Cow
premiums were increased (ECU 1.1billion in1996).
- Extensification premium .TheECraised theincentives forextensive livestock farming
byoffering premia ofECU 36andECU 52forstocking densities of1.4and1.2per
ha,respectively.
- Beeflabelling scheme .InApril 1997, avoluntary labelling scheme forfreshandfrozen
beefwasintroduced which willbecome obligatory in2000. Under thissystem,
operators mayinclude information onbeefproduction andprocessing methods aswell
astheorigin ofanimals.
- Beefpromotion .Asafurther measure toreassure consumers, theECadopted abeef
promotion programme (ECU 18.5million).
18. ECcattle prices dropped 13percentbetween February andAugust 1996, inApril breaching
thelevelwhich maytrigger "normal" intervention purchases (asopposed tosafety netintervention).
Normal intervention maybetriggered iftheaverage ECmarket priceis84percentoftheintervention
price fortwoconsecutive weeks and80percentbelow theintervention price inonemember State.
IntheUnited Kingdom, prices dropped tolevels which triggered safety netprocedures (theaverage
ECprice falling below 78percentoftheintervention price and60percentinonemember Statefor
aperiod oftwoweeks). Theintervention priceremained ECU3,475 pertonne deadweight ofR3grade
steers andyoung bullsforthe1996/97 marketing year(beginning on1July). While cattle prices dropped
9percentin1996, lamb prices surged 16percentandpigandpoultry meatprices roseby12per
cent(Chart 4).However, thepercentage increase intheconsumption ofpigmeat (up2½percent)
andpoultry meat(up5½percent) exceeded theincrease indemand forsheepmeat (up1percent).
19. ECintervention purchases weresuspended since mid-1993 and,byJanuary 1996, stocks were
down to5,500 tonnes. Inreaction tothe"BSE crisis", theceiling forintervention purchases wasraised
to560,000 tonnes in1996, 500,000 tonnes in1997 and350,000 tonnes in1998 (these volumes do
notinclude safety netinvention). Bytheendof1996, stocks hadreached 434,000 tonnes carcass weight.
Offers forintervention haveforsome timesignificantly exceeded theavailable quantity.
2Theprogramme wasoriginally partofthe1992 reform package oftheCommon Agricultural Policy.IMA/W/11
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21. ECimports areeffectively limited toitsscheduled WTO tariff quota commitments, including
enlargement-relatedincreasesthereto(Table4),itstariffquotacommitmentsundertheLoméConvention
andthebilateral agreements withCentral andEastern European countries.
Table 4-ECBeef andVeal Imports under Tariff Quota Commitments
(July 1995 -June 1996)
European Communities Unit Tariff quota
(tonnes)In-quota
imports
(tonnes)
High-quality cuts(formerly "Hilton Beef Quota") product weight 35,300 32,889
Frozen beef&veal, edible offal boneless 53,000 53,000
Frozen beefforprocessing, edible offal (formerly
"Manufacturing Beef Balance Sheet Quota")bone-in 50,000 33,000
Buffalo meat boneless 2,250 76
Frozen thinskirt - 1,500 1,500
High-quality cuts(fresh/chilled), edible offal boneless 11,000 11,000
High-quality cuts(fresh/chilled orfrozen), edible
offalboneless 5,000 4,998
High-quality cuts(fresh/chilled orfrozen), edible
offalboneless 4,000 4,000
Other cuts(fresh, chilled orfrozen) bone-in /
boneless150 144
Source: Notification bytheECtotheWTO.
ThePigmeat Market
22. Theoutbreaks ofClassical Swine Fever intheNetherlands andGermany inFebruary 1997
andofFoot-and-Mouth disease inChinese Taipei inMarch 1997 areexpected tohavesignificant
repercussions ontheECpigmeat market. Bothcalamities willliftalready relatively highprices.
23. ECpigproducers were among thebeneficiaries ofthe"BSE crisis". Pigmeat consumption
which hadbeendeclining forseveral years, picked upby2½percentin1996 andprices soared.
Pigprices peaked atECU 187perkg.deadweight inJuly1996 (up25percentcompared tooneyear
earlier) and,fortheyearaswhole, averaged atECU 163(up12percent). Inthefirstquarter of1997,
prices were considerably below theirpeakin1996 buthigher thaninearly 1996 (Chart 5).
24. Despite rising prices since 1995, theinitial expansion ofECpigmeat production hasbeen
moderate. Production in1996 merely increased by2½percent. Thisyear, ECproduction was
estimated -before theoutbreak ofClassical Swine Fever intheNetherlands -toincrease by1to2per
cent. TheNetherlands isthefourth-largest producer intheECwithsome 1.9million tonnes (12per
centofthetotal). Ifaccording topreliminary estimates Dutch production weretodropbyone-third
thisyear,ECproduction would decline byapproximately 2percent. According tothelatest pigcensus
inDecember 1996, theECpigherdincreased by2percentcompared toDecember 1995.IMA/W/11
Page18
Table 5-TheBovine Meat Sector inNorway
Norway Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 1,001 1,003 1,017 0 1½
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 84 85 86 2 2
Consumption '000t. 87 87 89 0 2½
percapita kgs. 19.9 19.9 20½ 0 1½
Imports '000t. 3½ 3½ 4 0 14½
Exports '000t. 2 1 1 -50 0
Source: WTO.
Switzerland
TheBovine Meat Market
28. InSwitzerland, slaughterings increased sharply lastyear, particularly inthesecond halfof
1996following theoutbreak ofthe"BSE crisis". Inthethirdandfourth quarters, slaughter numbers
surged by11percentand19percent, respectively. Although average slaughter weights were
significantly lower, totalproduction ofbeefandvealwas8percenthigher thanin1995 andprices
plummeted. Beefconsumption initially dropped sharply butsubsequently recovered (down 3percent
fortheyearasawhole) inresponse tolower retail prices. Beefprices rebounded inearly 1997 as
aresult ofanimproved supply-demand balance. Producer prices ofbeefforprocessing increased by
30percentduring January/February 1997, reaching thelevelbefore theoutbreak ofthe"BSE crisis"
while prices forfresh/chilled beefremained below March 1996 levels.
29. Some 30countries haveadopted traderestrictions relating toBSEinSwitzerland. Eventhough
thenumber ofBSEcases isrelatively small, Switzerland isthesecond mostaffected country afterthe
United Kingdom. In1996, 45casesofBSEwererecorded inSwitzerland, adropofone-third compared
to1995. Byinternational standards, Switzerland isconsidered alow-incidence BSEcountry. In
December 1996, theSwiss government ordered theimmediate culling of1,500 headofcattle with
aviewtoeradicating BSEinthecountry. Thisdecision followed therejection ofaplantoslaughter
upto230,000 headofcattle.
Table 6-TheBovine Meat Sector inSwitzerland
Switzerland Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 1,756 1,771 ... 1 ...
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 140 152 145 8 -5
Consumption '000t. 156 152 145 -3 -5
percapita kgs. 22 22 20 0 -10
Imports '000t. 9.6 6½ 7.1 -48 8
Exports '000t. 1.2 4 2.6 70 -35
Source: WTO.IMA/W/11
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CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
Bulgaria
TheLivestock Market s
30. Lastyear,Bulgaria wasfaced withasevere feedcrisis. Bulgaria wasshortof1.3million tonnes
offeedgrainandwhile meatprices doubled, feedprices rosenine-fold. Cattle numbers dropped sharply
andsheep andpignumbers wereevenmoredecimated. Total meatoutput isestimated at315,000 tonnes
in1996, further falling to270,000 tonnes in1997. Thedropinproduction overthe1995-97 period
isexpected tobeparticularly sharp forpigmeat (down 50percent). Meatconsumption decreased from
around 61kgs.percapita 1995 to40kgs.in1996-97.
Table 7-TheBovine Meat Sector inBulgaria
Bulgaria Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1997
Estimate1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 638 632 550 -1 -15
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 87 94 69 7 -36
Consumption '000t. 110 105 80 -5 -31
kg./person 12.8 12.2 9.2 -5 -33
Imports '000t. 24 15 11 -43 -37
Exports '000t. 1 0 2 -100 100
Source: USDA.
31. With itsaccession totheWTO on1December 1997, Bulgaria undertook toopenanumber
oftariff quotas forbeef(Table 8).4
Table 8-Bulgaria 'sWTO Tariff Quota Commitments forBeef
Bulgaria Annual tariff quota
(tonnes)In-quota tariff
Bone-in cuts(fresh/chilled) 1,000 10%
High-quality cuts (fresh/chilled orfrozen) 500 10%
High-quality cuts 1,000 duty-free
Carcasses andhalf-carcasses (frozen) 2,000 10%
Bone-in cuts(frozen) 11,200 10%
Boneless beefcuts(frozen) 4,100 10%
Source: Bulgaria 'sProtocol ofAccession totheWTO.
4Fortariff andtariff quota commitments aswellasexport subsidy commitments ofother WTO Members, see"Summary
oftheResults oftheUruguay Round intheMeat Sector" in:WTO, Special Annex totheInternational Markets forMeat
1994/95.IMA/W/11
Page20
Hungary
TheLivestock Sector
32. InHungary, arecovery ofthelivestock sector appears tobeunder way. Thecattle herdwas
stable in1995, with952,000 headcounted attheendofMarch 1996. Fortheperiod January to
September 1996, exports ofliveanimals andanimal products were 20percentabove levels inthe
corresponding period of1995. Theincrease inbeefproduction isexpected tobelargely absorbed
byrising domestic consumption. Net-exports ofbeefmaydecrease slightly.
33. Pignumbers increased to5.5million head(up18percentcompared to1995) andareexpected
toincrease further. Although porkstillaccounts fornearly halfoftotalmeatconsumption inHungary,
porkconsumption plunged from39kgs.percapita in1990to28kgs.in1995. Porkexports increased
toUS$159 million in1996, doubling invalue compared to1995.
34. Thelivestock sector 'srecovery didnotinclude thepoultry sector. While itsexport performance
wasfavourable, consumption fellsharply (down approximately 15percentaccording toAgraEurope).
Despite asurge infeedprices anda40percentcutinsubsidies, poultry exports reached 110,000 tonnes
(US$198 million) andarethusHungary 'sleading meat export product. TheECremains themain
export market, although Hungary 'sshare oftheRussian import market grew from3percentin1995
to10percentin1996.
Table 9-Poultry Meat Production andExports ofHungary
Hungary Unit 1996 1997 1997/96
%Change
Production '000t. 365 370 1
Exports '000t. 100 110 9
Source: USDA.
Poland
TheBovine Meat Market
35. Inlinewiththelong-term trend, cattle numbers decreased to7million headin1996 (down
3percentcompared to1995). According toOECD forecasts, cattle inventories areexpected toenter
aphase ofrebuilding intheyears tocome. Net-exports ofbeefmaythenexceed theaverage level
fortheperiod 1991 to1995 (55,000 tonnes).
ThePigmeat Market
36. There wasa13percentincrease inslaughtering inJanuary-April 1996compared tothesame
period of1995. Atthesame time, thepigherddecreased by3percentfromthe1995 leveltoreach
19.7million headinearly 1996. Thiswaslargely theresult oflower profitability ofpigrearing due
tohigher feedprices. InSeptember 1996, producer prices forpigswere 43percenthigher thanin
May. Inorder tostabilize themarket, theAgricultural Market Agency sold43,000 tonnes ofpork
from intervention stocks inAugust/September 1996.IMA/W/11
Page21
Table 10-The Pigmeat Sector inPoland
Poland Unit 1996 1997 1997/96
%Change
Production
Imports
Exports
Consumption('000t.)
('000t.)
('000t.)
(kg.percapita)1,600
40
130
40½1,450
70
30
38½-10½
43
-333
5
Source: USDA.
Romania
TheBovine Meat Market
37. InRomania, thesix-year decline incattle numbers finally appears tohavecome toahalt.
Cattle numbers totalled 3.9million head inSeptember 1996 (up26,000 head from 1995). In
September 1996, Romania notified theWTO Committee onSanitary andPhytosanitary measures of
itsFMD-free status following theofficial recognition bytheInternational Office ofEpizootics (OIE).
Export activity remains low,however. Beefimports totalled 4,500 tonnes in1996.
38. Co-operative farming hasgradually beenreplaced byprivate farming whose productivity is
constrained mainly byinsufficient machinery, investment andother farminputs. Inviewofthefact
thattheprivate sector isestimated torear91percentofthecattle, 64percentofthepigsand93per
centofthesheep andgoats, theRomanian Government isexpected toimplement anumber ofsupport
measures tohelpraisetheproductivity ofprivate farmers.
ThePigmeat Market
39. In1995, pigmeat production wasstable at303,000 tonnes. Pignumbers stood at10.6million
headinSeptember 1996 (up514,000 head). Romania isasignificant consumer ofpigmeat, witha
percapita consumption ofsome 32kgs., while percapita consumption ofbovine meat, poultry meat
andsheepmeat totalled, respectively, 7.3,11.6and3.2kgs.in1995. Exports ofpigmeat totalled
37,000 tonnes in1995, ofwhich 29,000 tonnes were soldtoRussia.
Russia
TheLivestock Sector
40. Dwindling livestock numbers continue tobeakeyfeature oftheRussian livestock sector.
Since 1989, cattle inventories inRussia plunged from59million headto36million in1996. USDA
estimates a7½percentdecrease inbeefproduction for1996. Total meatproduction inthefirstthree
quarters of1996 fellby20percentto1.2million tonnes. After having banned imports from three
ECmember States ongrounds ofBSE, Russia extended, asof10February 1997, thebantoanother
fivecountries.
41. Theclosing ofmany poultry factories ledtoa60percentdecline inbroiler production since
1991. Tosustain output inthissector, preferential credits forfeedgrain purchases bypoultry producers
wereannounced inMarch 1996. Despite theintroduction oftemporary customs duties inmid-1995
andmeasures designed toencourage domestic purchases, demand forimported meat, andpoultry meatIMA/W/11
Page22
inparticular, remained steady. According toUSDA, Russia 'spoultry imports reached 910,000 tonnes,
up10percentfrom800,000 tonnes in1995, andcompared toamere50,000 tonnes in1992. Poultry
meatimports fromtheUnited States alone account forabout two-thirds oftotalRussian poultry meat
supplies. Atemporary banimposed inFebruary 1996onpoultry meatimports fromtheUnited States
waslifted following assurances bytheUnited States regarding thesanitary status ofitspoultry meat.
Table 11-TheBovine Meat Sector inRussia
Russia Unit 1996 1997 1997/96
%Change
Cattle inventory million head 39.7 36 -10
Production '000tonnes 2,543 2,390 -6
Consumption kg./per capita 21.7 20.8 -4
Imports '000, c.w.e. 650 670 3
Source: USDA.
SOUTH AMERICA
Argentina
TheBovine Meat Market
42. Higher returns from cropping anddairying andatwo-year drought ledtoadecline ofthe
Argentine cattle herdto53.6million headin1996, thesmallest herdsizesince 1971. Thecattle herd
mayevendecrease byanother 1.8million headthisyear. According toOECD, cattle numbers are
forecast toincrease byabout 1percentannually tojustover57million headby2001 asproducers
respond toimproved export prospects. Beefproduction mayrisetoalevel ofmore than3million
tonnes by2001.
43. Lastyear, Argentina 'sexports totheUnited States totalled 81,000 tonnes (c.w.e.) andChile
advanced tothesecond position (78,000 tonnes), followed byGermany (62,000 tonnes), Brazil and
theUnited Kingdom (both 49,000 tonnes). Argentina alsoregained access totheRussian market, with
exports totalling 12,000 tonnes.
44. Argentina 'sallocation under theECtariffquotas forhigh-quality beefcutstotals 28,000 tonnes.
Following theoutbreak ofthe"BSE crisis", export prices for"Hilton beef" dropped fromUS$11,000
pertonne attheendof1995 toabout US$6,000. Prices recovered inmid-1996 toUS$7,800 and,
inJanuary 1997, export prices reached US$8,000 pertonne.
45. Prices ontheLiniers central auction (thedomestic priceindicator) wereabout 10percenthigher
in1995thanin1994(Chart 6).Lastyear, auction prices roughly tracked pricedevelopments inother
countries. Prices dropped 14percentinthecourse of1996fromthehighs oflate1995, butsequently
recovered. Inearly 1997, prices were slightly lower thanoneyearearlier.IMA/W/11
Page24
47. ByApril 1997, Argentina hadcompleted three years without anyoutbreak offoot-and-mouth
disease (FMD) which wasachieved through apolicy ofcontrol anderadication, including vaccination,
strict controls ofcattle movements andrigorous emergency measures. InMay1997, Argentina was
recognized bytheOIEasFMD-free withvaccination. Asaresult ofbilateral negotiations withthe
United States, Argentina isexpected tobeclassified asa"low risk" country withrespect toFMD.
IntheUruguay Round, Argentina agreed withtheUnited States onthemarket access modalities for
a20,000 tonne tariff quota allocation foruncooked beef(i.e.chilled orfrozen) andthefirstshipment
isnowexpected intheautumn of1997.
Brazil
TheBovine Meat Market
48. Cattle prices wereprofitable in1995andmore stable thaninpastyears, adevelopment which
stimulatedanincreaseincattlenumberslastyear.Slaughterratesincreasedinresponsetolowerinflation
andcashneeds. With inflation reduced to10percentin1996, pastincentives ofhedging against
inflation bytying upcapital tocattle onthehoofhaveallbutdisappeared. There wasalsoasharp
increase infeedlot activity, withcattle numbers increasing tocloseto1.4million head(up30to40per
centin1996).Duetohighfeedcosts,however,cattlewasslaughteredearlierthananticipated,increasing
beefmarket supplies. Lower-priced poultry meatwasadding toprice pressure onthebeefmarket.
Asaresult, attheendof1996, beefprices were some 25percentlower thantwoyears earlier.
49. TheRealPlan, implemented inmid-1994, hashelped tostimulate meatconsumption. Beef
consumption rosefromaround 15kgs.percapita in1987tojustunder 30kgs.in1996, withdemand
fromthelower-income segment ofthepopulation expanding particularly strongly. According toOECD,
aftertheinitial stimulus oftheRealPlan, domestic consumption willstabilize andnet-exports will
increase significantly. Brazil 'sbeefexports recovered lastyearfromverylowlevels in1995. According
toABIEC (Brazilian Meat Export Industry Association), exports increased to250,000 c.w.e. inthe
period January-November 1996 (up7percentcompared tothesame period in1995). Theaverage
export price decreased toUS$1,520 pertonne c.w.e. (down 8percent). Returns for"Hilton beef"
dropped fromUS$8,400 pertonne product weight toUS$6,900 in1996. Brazil holds a5,000 tonne
share intheECtariff quota forhigh-quality beefcuts(formerly "Hilton beefquota") which itfully
utilized in1996.
50. Brazil hasbeensuccessful inreducing thenumber ofFMD-outbreaks, inparticular inthepast
twoyears. Thelastoutbreak inthestateofRioGrande doSul,oneofBrazil 'smajor cattle-producing
regions, occurred inDecember 1993. Brazil maynowseektheOIE'srecognition ofFMD-free zone
status forRioGrande doSulaswellasSanta Catarina.
Table 13-TheBovine Meat Sector inBrazil
Brazil Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 148,278 151,544 153,200 2 1
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 4,750 4,960 5,150 4½ 4
Consumption kg./person 28.9 29.2 29.6 1 1½
Imports '000t. 127 100 80 -21½ -20
Exports '000t. 269 315 360 17 14½
Source: USDA.IMA/W/11
Page25
ThePoultry Meat Market
51. After several years ofrapid growth, theexpansion ofBrazil 'spoultry meat production (up
½percentin1996) wasslowed bystagnating domestic consumption andhighfeedcosts. Feedstuffs
account forsome 60percentofproduction costs. According toUSDA, lower feedcosts andbetter
export opportunities areforecast, however, tostimulate higher growth inproduction thisyear. In1996,
adropinbeefprices relative tobroiler prices (affected byhigher feedcosts) resulted inconsumption
stagnating at3.6million tonnes. Thisfollowed a23percentsurge inpoultry meatconsumption in
1995.
52. Exports offrozen chicken increased by117,000 tonnes in1996, asslowing poultry meat
consumption andample beefsupplies onthedomestic market resulted inalarger proportion ofBrazil 's
poultry being available forexport. Export prices forpoultrymeat were, onaverage, slightly higher
in1996 (US$1,470 pertonne) thanin1995 (US$1,440 pertonne), withexports ofbroiler parts for
thefirsttimeexceeding those ofwhole birds. Thisreflects anattempt bytheBrazilian poultry industry
todiversify itsexport markets. In1996, Brazil 'sexports toJapan increased byafurther 20percent,
while exports toRussia andIranresumed afteraninterruption ofseveral years.
Table 14-Poultry Meat Production andExports ofBrazil
Brazil Unit 1996 1997
Estimate1997/96
%Change
Production '000t. 4,160 4,330 4
Exports '000t. 567 610 7
Source: USDA.
Colombia
TheBovine Meat andPoultry Meat Markets
53. TheColombian cattle sector isfacing increasing competition from poultry meat. Until the
1980s, beefwasvirtually without rival. Poultry farming hasdeveloped strongly inrecent years, with
production forecast at632,000 tonnes in1997 (up6percent) driven bybuoyant demand. FMD is
endemic inthecountry buteradication measures havebeenimplemented. InMay1997 thenorthern
province ofChoco wasrecognized bytheOIEasaFMD-free zonewithvaccination.IMA/W/11
Page26
Table 15-TheBovine Meat Sector inColombia
Colombia Unit 1995 1996 1997
Estimate1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 16,725 16,768 16,852 ½ ½
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 604 617 637 2 3
Consumption '000t. 598 612 630 2½ 3
percapita kgs. 16.5 16.6 16.8 0 ½
Imports '000t. 2 3 3 50 0
Exports '000t. 2 2 2 0 0
Source: USDA.
Paraguay
TheBovine Meat Market
54. Beefproduction isexpected toremain stable butconsumption ofbeefisrising. Beefimports
aremainly sourced fromArgentina. Paraguay exports large numbers oflivecattle, which arealmost
entirely destined forBrazil. Paraguay wasrecognized bytheOIEinMay1997 asFMD-free with
vaccination.
Table 16-TheBovine Meat Sector inParaguay
Paraguay Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 9,788 10,700 10,200 9½ -5
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 239 210 210 -12 0
Consumption '000t. 206 219 235 6½ 7
Imports '000t. 5.6 5 5 -11 -
Exports '000t. 25 25 25 -1½ -
Source: WTO.
Uruguay
TheBovine Meat Market
55. Uruguay 'sbeefindustry issetonanexpansion course fortheyears tocome, mainly
driven byfavourable prospects onsome export markets. Incontrast tothepast,export growth does
notoccur inaphase ofcattle liquidation butistheresult ofinvestment incattle farming. Lastyear,
production recovered from atrough in1995, andfurther growth isforecast forthisyearand1998.
Slaughter numbers reached 1.87million headin1996 (up17percent). Livecattle exports, whichIMA/W/11
Page27
contributed tothedecline inproduction in1995, decreased significantly in1996 (some 20,000 head
down from 124,000 headin1995). Inspiteofdeclining beefconsumption, theUruguayans remain
theworld 'snumber onebeefconsumers.
56. HalfofUruguay 'sbeefproduction isexported, most ofitbeing frozen meat. Beefexports
were brisk lastyear, despite theimpact ofBSE. Uruguay 'ssuccess waslargely duetoincreased
shipments totheUnited States andBrazil. Themain export markets forfrozen beefwere Israel
(23,000 tonnes), theUnited States (20,000 tonnes, upfromzeroin1995) andtheEC(18,000 tonnes).
Exports ofchilled beeftoBrazil increased from 13,000 tonnes in1995 to31,000 tonnes in1996.
Chilled beefexports totheECtotalled 6,000 tonnes in1996, withUruguay 'sallocation under theEC
tariff quota forhigh-quality beefcuts("Hilton beef") being 6,300 tonnes. Theaverage export price
decreased 13percentin1996 toUS$1,440 pertonne.
57. In1995, Uruguay wasrecognized bytheOIEasbeing freeofFMD without vaccination. As
aresult, Uruguay received clearance from theUnited States toexport fresh, chilled orfrozen beef.
Since then, Uruguay hasanaccess opportunity of20,000 tonnes annually ofuncooked beeftothe
United States free-of-duty under theUStariff ratequota forbeef. In1996, Uruguay shipped 4,000
tonnes offresh/chilled beeftotheUnited States. InNovember 1995, following recognition ofits
FMD-free status, Uruguay received clearance from theECtoexport beefcarcasses andbeefoffal.
InOctober 1996, Uruguay received Canada 'saccreditation toexport freshmeatand,todate,hasshipped
small quantities ofuncooked beeftoCanada.
Table 17-TheBovine Meat Sector inUruguay
Uruguay Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 10,451 10,630 10,790 2 1½
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 350 419 423 16 1
Consumption '000t. 204 205 213 ½ 4
kg./person 65 65 67 0 3
Exports '000t. 143 210 210 32 0
Source: WTO.IMA/W/11
Page28
NORTH AMERICA
Canada
TheBovine Meat Market
58. InCanada, record slaughter levels andbuoyant cattle exports ledtoadecline oftotalcattle
numbers by3percentin1996. Thebeefcowinventory, asofJanuary 1997, wasestimated at
4.15million head(down 4percentcompared toJanuary 1996). Thedecline incattle inventories marks
theendoftheexpansion phase ofthecurrent cattle cycle which began in1987. Slaughter numbers
haveincreased since 1994reaching 3.4million headlastyear. Poorweather conditions inearly1996,
expensive feedandlower cattle prices arethemainreasons fortheriseinslaughterings andincreased
production. Lastyear, beefproduction exceeded, forthefirsttime, consumption ofbeef. Cattle
liquidation isexpected togiverisetohigher beefproduction atleastthrough 1997. Slaughterings are
forecast toincrease to3.6million headthisyear, inpartreflecting lower exports oflivecattle, and
todecline in1998.
59. Beefexports reached record levels in1996. Canada turned fromanet-importer toanet-exporter
ofbeef, although, onthebasis oflivecattle andbeeftrade combined, Canada hasconsistently been
andremained anet-exporter. Most beefwasexported from Western Canada totheUnited States.
Exports toJapan increased to6,000 tonnes (up35percent), withthetarget being tocapture 10per
cent(currently 1percent)oftheimport market by2000. Canada 'sexports toAsiaasawhole decreased
by1,000 tonnes, mainly duetoa30percentdecline inshipments toKorea. Exports totheECfell
from2,000 tonnes in1995to650tonnes lastyear. Canada recently entered intoabeefimport agreement
withChina which provides fordirect access ofexporters totheChinese retail market.
60. Livecattle exports totheUnited States rosesharply overthepastdecade. They increased
five-fold from 234,000 headin1987 toalmost 1.3million headin1992. Canada exports mainly
slaughter aswellasfeeder cattle andimports smaller numbers offedcattle from theUnited States.
In1996, exports oflivecattle surged by34percenttoanewrecord of1.5million head. Thisvolume
represents some 400,000 tonnes ifconverted intocarcass weight equivalent, or40percentmore than
Canada 'sbeefexports totheUnited States in1996. Thetrendofrising livecattle exports was,however,
reversed inthecourse of1996 asslaughter capacity inWestern Canada increased. Exports oflive
cattle areexpected tofurther decrease significantly thisyear.
61. Asforimports, roughly 60percentofCanada 'schilled andfrozen beefimports weresourced
fromtheUnited States lastyear(upfrom40percentin1993), while Australia 'sshare fellfrom39per
centto12percentbetween 1993and1996. Imports fromAustralia dropped to27,000 tonnes product
weight in1996 (down 30percent). Inthecurrent year, totalbeefimports areexpected tofallto
200,000 tonnes. Expanding Canadian production isexpected togaindomestic market shares primarily
attheexpense ofimports fromAustralia andNewZealand. Incontrast, imports fromtheUnited States
arelikely toremain stable inlightofattractive USbeefprices.
62. InlinewithitsWTO commitments, Canada established aduty-free tariffquota of76,409 tonnes
(product weight) fornon-NAFTA countries. Australia 'scountry-specific allocation wasreduced from
42,000 tonnes in1996 to26,000 tonnes inthecurrent year, while NewZealand 'sannual share totals
29,600 tonnes. Non-NAFTA suppliers mayshipadditional beefunder supplementary import permits
(once thetariff ratequota isfilled) provided thattheimport price isnolessthantheprice ofsimilar
meatentering theUnited States.IMA/W/11
Page29
Table 18-TheBovine Meat Sector inCanada
Canada Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 12,849 13,186 12,767 3 -3
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 929 990 1,053 6½ 6½
Consumption '000t. 970 946 973 -2½ 3
percapita kgs. 32.8 31.8 32.4 -3 2
Imports '000t. 256 237 200 -7½ -15½
Exports '000t. 219 286 296 30½ 3½
Cattle imports (forslaughter) '000head 30 41 38 36½ -7½
Cattle exports (forslaughter) '000head 1,038 1,279 900 23 -29½
Source: WTO.
ThePigmeat Market
63. While Canadian pigproducers were alsoadversely affected byincreased feedcosts, they
benefited, unlike cattle producers, fromrising producer prices in1996. Nonetheless, profits felland
prompted a3percentdecline inpigmeat production. Major vertical integration movements inthe
industry ledtoamigration ofproduction towards Western Canada. In1997, pigmeat production is
expected torecover from lastyear'scontraction (down 2½percent)andincrease by1to2percent.
64. Nearly one-third ofCanada 'spigmeat production iscurrently destined forexport. In1996,
exports reached 356,000 tonnes (up20percent) andareforecast toincrease further thisyear, to
363,000 tonnes. Asforcattle andbeef, theUnited States isCanada 'slargest export market forlive
pigsandpigmeat. In1996, however, porkexports totheUnited States dropped by16percentand
imports from theUnited States jumped 39percentto38,000 tonnes, atrend which isexpected to
continue asCanada aimstoincrease itsexports toAsian markets. Livehogexports increased 60per
centtoarecord 2.8million headin1996.
Mexico
TheBovine Meat Market
65. Drought continues toplague many Mexican cattle farmers. While cattle numbers inJanuary
1996were7percentlower thanin1995, theymaydropto25.2million headbytheendof1997(down
10percent). However, thenorthern regions ofMexico benefited from economic improvements in
thecattle industry andmore favourable rainfall which resulted inbetter forage supplies andcheaper
feed. Beefproduction stagnated at1.8million tonnes in1996, reflecting lower cattle weights andlimited
availability ofdomestic finished cattle. Production isnotexpected toexpand in1997.
66. Cattle imports recovered lastyearfollowing adropinthewake ofthepesodevaluation in
December 1994. In1995, imports from theUnited States haddropped 90percentto15,000 head
while beefimports fromtheUnited States hadfallen by60percentto29,000 tonnes (product weight).IMA/W/11
Page31
70. Overall meatconsumption intheUnited States rosefurther in1996. Following several years
ofdeclining beefdemand, consumption ofbeefrecovered forthethirdconsecutive year, stimulated
bylower retail prices andhigher household incomes.
71. Health concerns reduced world beefdemand in1996and,asaconsequence, USexports were
below earlier expectations. While beefexports inthefirsthalfof1996 were35percenthigher than
inthesameperiod of1995, inthesecond halfof1996andinthefirstquarter of1997theyweresluggish.
TheUnited States thusremained anet-importer ofbeefinvolume terms lastyeardespite aslight decline
inimports. USbeefexports benefited nonetheless fromincreased production, competitive prices, strong
export demand forhighquality beefandsupply constraints bymajor competitors. Beefexports to
Korea andMexico werestrong inthesecond halfof1996 andinearly 1997, while exports toJapan
werelower thanatthesame timein1996. Despite anincrease involume terms, thevalue ofUSbeef
exports declined by8percenttoUS$2.4 billion in1996, reflecting a13percentdecrease inexports
toJapan andCanada.
72. USbeefimports decreased byanother 1percentinthepastyear, afterhaving dropped 11per
centin1995. From January toMay1996, USbeefimports were6percentlower thanoneyearearlier
aslargedomesticsuppliesoflowerqualitybeefreplacedimports.Australia'sexportstotheUnitedStates
were30percentlower andimports fromNewZealand, which hadrisenin1995, decreased by5per
cent. For1997, totalUSbeefimports areprojected toincrease. UScattle imports declined byover
800,000 headin1996duetosharply reduced cattle inventories inMexico andamodest improvement
inMexico 'seconomy andpasture conditions which was,however, partly offset bya400,000 head
increase inimports from Canada.
Table 19-TheBovine Meat Sector intheUnited States
United States Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 102,765 103,819 99,000 1 -5
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 11,552 11,800 11,446 3 -3
Consumption '000t. 11,705 11,879 11,870 1½ 0
percapita kgs. 44.5 44.7 44.3 1 -1
Beef imports '000t. 954 940 1,034 -1 9
Beef exports '000t. 826 849 860 3 1½
Cattle imports '000t. 2,900 2,100 1,908 -28 -10
Cattle exports '000head 73 86 272 15 68
Source: USDA.
ThePigmeat Market
73. High grain prices in1996 alsoputpressure ontheUSpigmeat industry. Pigmeat
production inthesecond halfof1996 wasbelow 1995 levels, reflecting lower sowfarrowing during
September toFebruary 1995/96. Total production in1996 declined by4percent. Pigprices are
expected tostrengthen inthecurrent yearduetostrong export sales, inparticular toJapan astheresult
oftheFMD outbreak inChinese Taipei inMarch 1997. USfutures prices forlivehogsandporkbelliesIMA/W/11
Page34
thatimport demand onAustralia 'sthree major export markets (Japan, theUnited States andKorea,
inorder ofimportance) willrecover. Livecattle exports areexpected togrow further.
79. InJapan, Australia 'sexports werehardhitbytheimpact ofBSE, theE.coli outbreak, the
depreciation oftheyenandincreased competitiveness ofUSbeef. These factors resulted ina9percent
dropinoverall exports toJapan (286,000 tonnes product weight in1996). Australia 'smarket share
slipped slightly, mainly tothebenefit oftheUnited States (forchilled beef:58percentin1996compared
to60in1995). Furthermore, wholesale prices inJapan rosebyapproximately 10percentin1996
while theyenweakened bysome 20percentagainst theAustralian dollar. Theneteffect wasa
significant reduction inexport returns. Inearly 1997, exports toJapan remained sluggish.
80. Exports totheUnited States dropped another 19percentin1996 because oflowUSprices
(182,000 tonnes product weight). Australia filled onlyhalfofitsduty-free tariff quota allocation of
378,000 tonnes. Intheearlymonths of1997, however, exports totheUnited States picked upsharply,
benefiting fromhigher prices formanufacturing beefduetolower UScowslaughter. InMarch-April
1997, USprices forboneless manufacturing beefwere30to40percenthigher thanoneyearearlier.
Despite lower overall imports ofKorea, Australia succeeded inraising itsmarket share from 35per
centto42percentlastyear. Australia 'sallocation within theCanadian tariffquota forbeefwasreduced
from 42,000 tonnes in1996 to35,000 tonnes for1997.
81. Strong exports oflivefeeder cattle moderated theimpact ofdepressed overseas beefmarkets
lastyear. When converted tocarcass weight equivalents, theseexports exceeded beefexports toKorea
(60,000 tonnes and56,000 tonnes, respectively). Indonesia (50percent)andthePhilippines (30per
cent) were themajor destinations. Inthecurrent year, Australia maybenefit from a10percent
reduction, inJanuary 1997, oftheEC'sexport subsidies aswellasaBSE-related banofseveral North
African countries onimports from anumber ofECmember States.
82. Beefconsumptionincreasedfurtherin1996,benefitingfromgreateravailabilityonthedomestic
market duetolower exports andrising retail prices oflamb andpork.
Table 20-TheBovine Meat Sector inAustralia
Australia Unit 1995 1996 1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers
(31March)million 25.7 26.5 26.8 3 1
Slaughter numbers '000head 7,910 7,684 7,850 -3 2
Beef &vealproduction '000t 1,717 1,638 1,700 -4½ 4
Consumption kg./cap. 34.0 33.6 33.5 -1 -½
Beef exports '000t 1,096 1,016 1,080 -7½ 6½
Live cattle exports '000head 510 723 870 42½ 20½
Source: AMLC.IMA/W/11
Page36
thefirstdecline inbeefcattle numbers since 1980. Cattle liquidation isreflected intheincrease in
beefproduction lastyear.
86. TheNewZealand economy expanded, inrealterms, by4½percentlastyearandrealGDP
isforecast torisebyanother 3percentthisyear. Beefconsumption didnot,however, benefit from
rising incomes. Lastyear, there wasashiftaway from beeftowards lamb, porkandpoultry meat,
eventhough retail prices forbeefdecreased slightly while sheepmeat prices increased strongly. The
main competing meats forbothbeefandlamb arelow-priced fresh andfrozen porkandpoultry meat
aswellaslamb imported from Australia andSouth America.
87. TheNewZealand beefexport industry wasadversely affected bymainly three factors in
1996: lowbeefprices intheUnited States, negative consumer reactions toBSEandE.coli food
poisoning inJapan andKorea andafurther appreciation oftheNZdollar against theUSdollar and
theyen.
88. NewZealand continues toshiftitsexport focus tothemore lucrative, growing Asian markets
although theUnited States remained, byfar,thenumber onedestination lastyear. IntheUnited States,
NewZealand filled only76percentofitstariff quota allocation of213,402 tonnes (product weight).
Exports toCanada, however, increased by11percentto46,000 tonnes intheyearending inSeptember
1996. Lastyear, one-quarter ofNewZealand 'stotalbeefexport volume wenttoAsia; interms of
value, Asia'sshare wasroughly onethird. There wasaremarkable improvement ofNewZealand 's
export performance inanumber ofAsian markets, notably Indonesia (5,900 tonnes), Malaysia
(5,700tonnes),thePhilippines(2,900tonnes)andSingapore(6,000tonnes),withgrowthratesexceeding
50percentin1995/96. NewZealand 'sshare inthese traditional export markets tends tobemuch
higher thaninJapan andKorea where theUnited States andAustralia dominate. Exports toJapan
increased slightly despite adverse consumer reactions duetomeatsafety concerns, whereas exports
toKorea declined sharply (down 16percentin1995/96).
Table 21-TheBovine Meat Sector inNew Zealand
New Zealand Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 9,272 9,200 9,050 -1 -1½
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 640 647 683 1 5½
Consumption '000t. 125 121.4 128 -3 5½
kg./person 33.9 32.7 34.0 -3½ 4
Exports '000t. 512 536 568 4½ 6
Source: WTO.
TheSheepmeat Market
89. Sheep numbers havedeclined yearafteryearsince theNewZealand government eliminated
the"Supplementary Minimum Prices" in1984. While thelandbasecontinues todecline, thesheep
industry hadapositive yearin1996. Thelambing percentage was110percent, thehighest ratioof
lambs pereweeverreached inNewZealand, andexport returns rosesharply astheresult ofstrongIMA/W/11
Page37
demand, particularly from theEC. Production ofbothmutton andlamb fellin1996 andfurther
decreases of1and4percent, respectively, areforecast forthisyear.
90. In1996, New Zealand exported 221,700 tonnes ofsheepmeat totheEC,which was
5,000 tonnes short ofitsallocation under theEC'stariff quota forsheepmeat (225,000 tonnes) plus
theenlargement-related increase ofduty-free access opportunities to226,700 tonnes. Exports ofchilled
sheepmeat reached 16,500 tonnes (up43percent). TheEC'sSchedule doesnotprovide foranysub-
allocation forfrozen andchilled sheepmeat. Expectations arethatoverall export demand for
NewZealand sheepmeat willcontinue tobebrisk thisyearandgiven limited supplies, prices willbe
rising.
ASIA
Japan
TheBovine Meat Market
91. Beefproduction inJapan decreased by7½percentin1996. While inthepastfewyears
production hadstagnated at600,000 tonnes, slaughter numbers decreased sharply lastyear,inparticular
cowandheifer slaughter. Thisdecrease wasduetoincreased slaughterings ofbeefbreeding cows
in1993-94 inreaction tolower wholesale prices forbeef.
92. Consumer confidence inimported beefwasshaken byhealth concerns lastyear. TheBSE
crisis andseveral casualties ofE.coli foodpoisoning prompted ashiftfromimported todomestically
produced meat. Imports in1996 decreased by7percent,while beefconsumption declined by5per
cent.Australia andtheUnited States reacted withmedia campaigns toreassure consumers ofthesafety
oftheirbeef. Beefimports were volatile butgrew by5percentinthefirstsixmonths of1996.
Following theE.coli cases, monthly imports dropped 30to40percentinmid-1996 andremained 20to
30percentbelow year-earlier levels untiltheendof1996. Another factor contributing tothedecline
inimports wastherapid depreciation oftheyenagainst thecurrencies ofmajor beefexporters toJapan
(US,Canadian, Australian andNewZealand dollar) which began inmid-1996. Forexample, inthe
second quarter of1996, theexchange ratestood at¥80-90/US$; byearly 1997, theexchange rate
hadpassed to¥120/US$.
93. Following theentry intoforce oftheWTO, Japan'sbound tariff of50percentadvalorem
forbeefimports became effective on1April 1995. Inaddition, Japan undertook toreduce theapplied
tariff from 50percentto38½percentby2000. Thisreduction is,however, subject toasafeguard
mechanism which provides that,ifcumulative imports inanyquarter exceed 117percentofthe
corresponding imports inthepreceding year, thetariff willbere-adjusted tothebound rateforthe
remainder ofthecurrent fiscal year(beginning on1April).5Themechanism isapplied separately
tofrozen andfresh/chilled beef. Since frozen beefimports inthefirstquarter ofthefiscal year1996
(122,000 tonnes) wereequivalent to147percentofthecorresponding imports in1995, thesafeguard
mechanism wastriggered andthe50percenttariff re-instated. AsfromApril 1997, theapplied tariff
forfrozen beefwasdecreased from50percentto44.3percent. Thesametariffapplies tofresh/chilled
beef.
5Thetariff undertaking aswellasthesafeguard arebased onmeasures notified totheGATT Contracting Parties inGATT
document L/7621 dated 23January 1995. Thesafeguard measure isameasure other thanthespecial agricultural safeguard
under Article 5oftheAgreement onAgriculture oractions undertaken pursuant toArticle XIXofGATT andtheWTO
Agreement onSafeguards.IMA/W/11
Page38
94. Theoutlook forthisyearismixed. Beefimports arelikely tobestimulated bythetariff
reduction inApril andarecovery ofdemand following thehealth scare lastyearandashortage of
pork. Ontheother hand, economic growth inJapan remains weak, theconsumption taxwasraised
andtheexchange rateprospects areuncertain.
Table 22-TheBovine Meat Sector inJapan
Japan Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1996/95
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 1,505 1,389 -7½
Beef andvealproduction '000t. 601 555 -5½
Consumption '000t. 1,519 1,441 -5
percapita kgs. 12.1 11.5 -5
Imports '000t. 942 871 -7½
Source: WTO.
ThePigmeat Market
95. Oneelement ofJapan'simport regime forpigmeat isagateprice which islower than
thebound gateprice inJapan'sWTO Schedule. Thelower applied gateprice issubject toasafeguard
mechanism,otherthanthespecialagriculturalsafeguardunderArticle5oftheAgreementonAgriculture
orsafeguard measures provided forinArticle XIXofGATT andtheWTO Agreement onSafeguards.6
Under thismechanism, Japan mayincrease theapplied gateprice toitsbound levelfortheremainder
oftheJapanese fiscal year,ifcumulative imports inanyquarter exceed 119percentofthecorresponding
average (cumulative quarterly) imports inthethree preceding years. Intheevent ofthemechanism
being triggered inthefourth quarter ofthefiscal year, thehigher gateprice maybeapplied during
thefirstquarter ofthefollowing fiscal year. Thissafeguard isapplied toporkcuts, carcasses and
processed porkproducts.
96. Todate,Japan hasapplied thissafeguard twice: fromNovember 1995 toMarch 1996 and
fromJuly1996toJune1997. Themeasure hadamuch more restrictive effect onfrozen porkimports
thanonchilled pigmeat andDenmark 'simports almost came toastandstill inlate1995 and1996
(Denmark exports mainly frozen porktoJapan). InJanuary 1997, theECrequested WTO dispute
settlement consultations withJapan onthismatter.
97. Inaddition tothesafeguard based onthegateprice, Japan applied, fromJanuary toMarch
1997, thespecial agricultural safeguard onimports oflivepigsaswellasporkandporkproducts.
Japan increased thebound advalorem dutyto6.4percent(up33percent), invoking thevolume trigger
ofArticle 5oftheAgreement onAgriculture.
98. While overthepasttenyears domestic pigmeat production wasonthedecline, Japan'simports
hadgrown byanaverage 10percent. Since 20March 1997, however, Japan'smeatmarkets arefaced
withanentirely newsituation prompted byanoutbreak ofFMD inChinese Taipei, byfarthelargest
6Idem.IMA/W/11
Page39
exporter ofpigmeat toJapan. Lastyear, some 40percentoftotalimports or380,000 tonnes were
supplied byChinese Taipei, mostly frozen porkbutalsolarge quantities ofchilled pork.
99. ThegapleftbyChinese Taipei 'sporkexports islikely tohavemajor repercussions inthe
Japanese meatmarket andelsewhere. Wholesale rosesharply but,asstocks werelarge, noimmediate
shortage arose. Thegateprice-based safeguard wasnotlifted. Itremains tobeseenwhich supplying
countries willincrease theirmarket shares. In1996, theUnited States supplied 203,000 tonnes (22per
centoftotalimports), Denmark 170,000 tonnes (18percent)andCanada 56,000 tonnes (6percent).
Higher beefandpoultry meatimports thanotherwise arealsolikely.
Korea
TheBovine Meat Market
100. Asaresult ofthe1989 consultation withtheGATT Balance-of-Payments Committee and
theUruguay Round negotiations, Korea maintains quantitative restrictions onbeefimports until
31December 2000. Under itsWTO commitments, access opportunities arelimited tothevolumes
shown inTable 23;additional access opportunities havebeenopened byKorea onanadhocbasis.
Incontrast to1995, Korea 'sbeefimports lastyearequalled theimport quota of147,000 tonnes
(boneless). Thiswasmainly theresult ofBSE-related consumer concerns aswellassupply pressure
onthedomestic market. Cattle numbers areforecast toincrease byanother 4½percentthisyear.
Consumption ofbeefincreased further toapproximately 7kgs.percapita in1996 (up6percent).
101. In1997, one-half ofthequota access isadministered bytheKorean Livestock Products
Marketing Organization (LPMO), with theother halfofimports being channelled through the
Simultaneous Sell-and-Buy (SBS) system. TheLPMO, astate-trading enterprise, auctions thequota
among wholesalers through thegeneral tender system whereas theSBSsystem allows direct access
oftheoverseas sellers totheKorean distribution system. While overall access willincrease untila
tariff-only regime comes intoforce in2001, there willalsobeasignificant increase intheproportion
andvolume ofbeefimports directly distributed through theprivate sector. TheUnited States hasbeen
theleading beefexporter toKorea bothintheLPMO andtheSBSsegment ofthemarket. Lastyear,
itheld50percentoftheimport market, followed byAustralia (30percent) andNew Zealand
(15percent).
Table 23-Korea 'sPhase-Out Schedule ofBeef Import Quotas
Year Import quota LPMO share SBSshare Tariff
(tonnes) (%) (tonnes) (%) (tonnes) (%)
1995 123,000 70 86,100 30 36,900 43.6
1996 147,000 60 88,200 40 58,800 43.2
1997 167,000 50 83,500 50 83,500 42.8
1998 187,000 40 74,800 60 112,200 42.4
1999 206,000 30 61,800 70 144,200 42.0
2000 225,000 30 67,500 70 157,500 41.6
2001 Noquantitative restrictions 41.2
Note: Volumes areexpressed inboneless equivalent.
Source: AMLC.IMA/W/11
Page40
ThePigmeat andPoultry Meat Markets
102. Quantitative restrictions onimports offrozen pork andchicken willbephased outon
30June1997. Access inthefirstsixmonths of1997 totals 18,275 tonnes ofpork(in-quota tariff:
25percent) and6,500 tonnes ofchicken (in-quota tariff: 20percent). Asfrom 1July1997, tariffs
willtakeeffect which arebound at30percentand27percent, advalorem ,respectively. For
fresh/chilled porkandchicken, atariff-only regime isalready inplace. Themajor porksuppliers are
Denmark, theUnited States andCanada.
103. Porkconsumption ismore thantwice ashighasbeefconsumption andhasbeenrising steadily
inthepastfewyears. With theliberalization ofthefrozen porkandchicken import regime, beefis
facing increased competition fromthese meats. Korea hasemerged asasignificant exporter ofpork,
withitsnet-trade position being virtually balanced. Asmost exports aredestined forJapan, Korea
maybewellplaced tobenefit from thebanonporkimports from Chinese Taipei.
AFRICA
South Africa
TheBovine Meat Market
104. Beef production inSouth Africa iscarried outonanextensive (natural grazing) to
semi-extensive basis(cultivated pastures) although 60percentofmarketed cattle isfinished infeedlots.
Cowandheifer numbers arehighly dependent onrainfall conditions. Duetopoorweather conditions
lastyear, cattle numbers, at8.6million head, were3percentbelow earlier expectations. Slaughter
numbers totalled approximately 1.8million headandanupswing inslaughtering ofabout 5percent
isforecast for1997.
105. Beef'smain competitor ispoultry meat, consumption ofwhich hasgrown from 5kgs.per
capita inthe1970'stoover19kgs.today. While totalbeefconsumption isindecline, thereisgrowing
demand forsteaks andother highvalue cuts. Indeed, rising incomes throughout theSouth African
population aresignalling future imports. Lastyear, thedrought depleted localinventories heightening
thedemand forimports. TheMeat Board isnolonger animporter ofmeatanditsmarketing functions
willbeterminated in1997. InMay1997 theOIErecognized FMD-free zones inSouth Africa (and
Namibia) without vaccination.
Table 24-TheBovine Meat Sector inSouth Africa
South Africa Unit 1995 1996
Estimate1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Cattle numbers '000head 8,364 8,638 8,888 3 3
Beef andveal
production'000t. 520 463 545 -12½ 15
Consumption '000t. 601 578 646 -4 10½
kg./person 14.6 13.7 15.0 -6 9½
Imports '000t. 66 61 64 -8 7½
Note: Imports incl. c.w.e. oflivecattle.
Source: WTO.IMA/W/11
Page41
Table 25-Pigmeat Situation inSelected Countries, 1995-1997
(Thousand metric tonnes, carcass weight equivalent)
1995 1996 1997
Estimate1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Production World
China
European Communities
United States
Brazil
Russian Federation
Poland
Chinese Taipei
Japan
Canada83,000
36,000
15,953
8,097
1,450
2,000
1,510
1,233
1,312
1,27686,400
37,000
16,325
7,765
1,550
1,820
1,630
1,270
1,266
1,241...
40,500
16,570
7,751
1,680
1,511
1,450
1,275
...
1,2584
3
2½
-1½
7
-9
8
½
-4
-½...
9
1½
-½
8
-20
-12
-
...
-
Exports World
European Communities
United States
Canada
Chinese Taipei2,229
808
350
356
3702,305
870
431
369
330...
850
503
364
3603½
-14
19
½
-12½...
...
14½
-
8½
Imports Japan
Russian Federation
United States
Hong Kong
Korea
Poland
European Communities
Mexico
Canada829
454
301
160
45
60
22
30
35933
545
280
117
54
32
42
30
39...
565
274
140
80
70
50
35
3511
17
-7½
-37
17
-46½
90
-
10...
4
-2
16
32½
54
19
17
-11½
Consumption China
European Communities
United States
Russian Federation
Japan
Brazil
Poland
Canada35,850
15,137
8,067
2,304
2,093
1,415
1,470
82636,850
15,527
7,628
2,139
2,118
1,490
1,652
78640,255
15,770
7,516
2,095
...
1,605
1,490
8003
2½
-6
-7
1
5½
12½
-58½
1½
-22
-2
...
7
-11
2
Percapita
consumption
(kgs.)Chinese Taipei
European Communities
Poland
Singapore
Hong Kong
United States
Canada40.5
40.7
39.0
38.1
37.8
30.7
27.941.9
41.7
40
38.7
37.8
28.7
26.342.9
42.2
38
...
...
28
26.43½
2½
2½
-
-
-7
-62½
1
-5½
...
...
-
-
Note: World exports arenetofECintra-trade.
Source: WTO Secretariat, FAO, USDA.IMA/W/11
Page42
Table 26-Poultry Meat Situation inSelected Countries, 1995-1997
(Thousand metric tonnes, ready-to-cook equivalent)
1995 1996
Estimate1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Production World
United States
China
European Communities
Brazil
Mexico
Japan
Thailand
Canada
South Africa
Russian Federation
Argentina55,000
13,786
9,347
7,821
4,040
1,554
1,282
830
861
736
859
70058,300
14,516
11,000
8,164
4,160
1,590
1,249
910
895
789
765
660...
15,285
12,500
8,390
4,330
1,680
...
945
911
811
719
6806
5
18
4½
3
2½
-2½
9½
4
7
-12½
-6...
5
12
3
5
5½
...
4
2
3
-6½
3
Exports World
United States
European Communities
Hong Kong
Brazil
China4,540
1,969
852
470
430
3705,029
2,324
855
510
567
500...
2,518
830
661
610
60010
15½
½
8½
24½
26...
7½
-3
23
7
17
Imports Russian Federation
China
Hong Kong
Japan
Saudi Arabia
European Communities
Mexico
Canada
South Africa800
446
710
536
290
203
163
105
64900
671
785
559
297
271
177
115
751,090
900
871
...
247
280
194
118
9012½
50½
10½
4½
2½
33½
8
9
1517½
25½
10
...
-17
3½
9
3
17
Consumption United States
China
European Communities
Brazil
Russian Federation
Japan11,766
9,582
7,182
3,623
1,900
1,79812,131
11,300
7,580
3,680
1,900
1,80212,740
11,800
7,840
3,720
1,809
...3
15
5½
1½
-
4½5
4½
3½
1
-5
...
Percapita
consumption
(kgs.)Hong Kong
United States
Israel
Singapore
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Brazil
Australia46.0
44.1
44.3
39.1
32.6
30.5
26.0
25.750.0
45.0
43.9
38.7
32.8
31
26.0
26.747
46.9
44.3
...
32.2
32
...
278½
2
-1
-1
½
½
-
4-6
5
1
...
-½
½
...
1½
Note: World exports arenetofECintra-trade.
Source: WTO Secretariat, FAO, USDA.IMA/W/11
Page43
Table 27-Sheepmeat Situation inSelected Countries, 1995-1997
(Thousand metric tonnes, carcass weight equivalent)
1995 1996 1997
Forecast1996/95
%Change1997/96
%Change
Production World
China
European Communities
India
Australia
New Zealand
Turkey
Russia
South Africa
United States10,400
2,000
1,117
620
565
560
372
261
104
13010,700
2,300
1,117
635
554
532
366
217
108
121...
2,600
1,090
637
...
521
363
190
115
11333
15
-
2½
-2
-5
-2
-20
4
-7½...
12
-2½
½
...
-2
-
-14
6
-7
Exports World
New Zealand
Australia
Uruguay659
452
265
11653
431
253
11...
425
...
11-1
-5
-4½
-...
-1½
...
-
Imports European Communities
Japan
South Africa
Russian Federation
United States
Mexico
Canada
New Zealand245
84
41
18
29
15
13
8259
72
48
9
33
15
11
6259
...
41
35
29
16
13
95½
-17
15
-100
12
-
-18
-33-
...
-17
74
-14
6½
15
33
Consumption China
European Communities
India
Turkey
Australia
Saudi Arabia
Russian Federation
United States
South Africa2,000
1,354
611
368
300
238
276
157
1302,299
1,368
618
373
302
244
250
150
1272,595
1,340
625
377
319
247
226
138
12315
1
1½
1½
½
2½
-10½
-5
-2½11½
-2
1½
1½
5½
1½
-10½
-9
-3½
Percapita
consumption
(kgs.)New Zealand
Uruguay
Saudi Arabia
Australia
Kazakhstan
South Africa24.7
14
13.2
12.3
11.9
4...
15
13
...
9.3
3...
15
12.7
...
7.8
3...
7
-
...
-28
-33½...
-
-
...
-150
-
Notes: Data include goatmeat.
World exports arenetofECintra-trade.
Source: WTO Secretariat, FAO, USDA.IMA/W/11
Page45ATTACHMENT
MEAT PRICE SERIES
SeriesType
ofmeatOrigin Technical specifications Price category Unit Conversion factor Source title Source author
I Beef Argentina Liniers Average
domestic priceUS$/kg. :1,000 Informe Ganadero Private source, based on
information provided bySAGyP,
Dirección deMercados Ganaderos
II Beef Australia Class 28-30; dw
260.1-300 kgs.:
Toowoomba saleyard,
QLDExport prices to
Korea$Acents/kg, dw IMFperiod average
exchange rate:100Meat andLivestock Review,
Monthly Summary StatisticsAustralian Meat andLivestock
Corporation Market
Intelligence Unit
III Beef Australia Class 22-26; dw
200.1-260 kgs.:
Toowoomba saleyard,
QLD -Manuf. cowExport prices to
US$Acents/kg, dw IMFperiod average
exchange rate:100Meat andLivestock Review,
Monthly Summary StatisticsAustralian Meat andLivestock
Corporation Market
Intelligence Unit
IV Beef Australia Class 32-40; dw
300.1-400 kgs.: Nth
QLD overthehooksExport prices to
Japan$Acents/kg., dw IMFperiod average
exchange rate:100Meat andLivestock Review,
Monthly Summary StatisticsAustralian Meat andLivestock
Corporation Market
Intelligence Unit
V Beef EC12 Fatmale cattle Weighted
average pricesECU/100 kgs., dw :100 - Commission ofEuropean
Communities, Brussels
VI Beef United States Choice, 11-13 cwt,
Nebraska DirectLivestock prices US$/cwt *2.2/100 Livestock, Dairy andPoultry
Situation andOutlookUSDA, Economic Research
Service
VII Beef United States Boneless, 90%fresh Wholesale
pricesUS$/cwt *2.2/100 Livestock, Dairy andPoultry
Situation andOutlookUSDA, Economic Research
Service
VIII Pigmeat EC12 Slaughtered pork Weighted
average pricesECU/100 kgs., dw :100 - Commission ofEuropean
Communities, Brussels
IX Pigmeat United States Hogs: Barrows andgilts,
5marketsLivestock prices US$/cwt *2.2/100 Livestock, Dairy andPoultry
Situation andOutlookUSDA, Economic Research
Service
X Sheep Australia Class 8-22; dwupto
andincluding 22kgs.:
Ballarat saleyard, VIC-
WethersWholesale
prices$Acents/kg., dw IMFperiod average
exchange rate:100Meat andLivestock Review,
Monthly Summary StatisticsAustralian Meat andLivestock
Corporation Market
Intelligence Unit
XI Poultry United States Broilers, 12CityAvg. Wholesale
pricesUSc/lb. :100*0.4536 Livestock, Dairy andPoultry
Situation andOutlookUSDA, Economic Research
Service