kudiUk Ækk kUI
sw- Is-——--.s-.-. - ..
Published every Saturday : t Kodiak,'- drihsk-.
, Yearly Subscription ftneW;0u
, Entered in the Postoffioe at Ko- \ ,ska
Class natter under act of Cony • . ,al.
* THE ISLAND PUBLI C 'WPANv
Sig J. Digree, Editor a„,i .isher
; Betba Digree, Executive Nr retary
MEMBER OF ASSOCIATE PRESS
The Associated Press is exclusively entitled to the use or republica
tion of all news dispatches credited to it or not otherwise credited in
this paper and also the local news published herein.
£fi(e<ws of (AmencM'i List "frontttr
Forecasting Has Limitations
Dexter Keezer, an economist of
standing who is associated with
the McGraw-Hill Publishing Co.,
has said: “It's probably a social
law that people would rather be
poorly informed about where
they’re going than well informed
about where they are.” Dr. Keezer
referred, obviously, to 'the fact
that millions of people follow eco
nomic forecasts in newspapers and
other publications, and that pro
fessional ecoaoioeks are employed'
in great numbers in government
and industry, and in labor and ag
ricultural organizations.
Newsweek quoted Dr. Keezer’s
observation in an article descrip
tively entitled: “What’s Wrong
With the Top U S. Economists Is
Trying to Make an Exact Science
of Guessing.” The Newsweek dis
cussion is not anti-economist at all.
But it does a valuable job in show
ing some of the limitations of this
particular occupation, and why
they exist.
The magazine points to past
failures. Just after the war, for in
stance, many economists forecast
that 8 million workers would soon
be unemployed—it never happen
ed. When the 1949 recession came
along, many expected it to become
a major depression—but it didn't.
More recently, a group of respect
ed economists took a rather jaun
diced view of President Eisenhow
er’s 1955 Economic Report to Con
gress. One of them said that un
employment in that year would be
as much as 1.5 million higher than
in 1954—in fact, unemployment
declined. None, even the most bull
ish, came anywhere near anticipat
ing the gains in the gross national
product and other barometers that
ocurred
Another objection some made to
economic) forecasts is the frequent
use of gobbledygook. An actual ex
It's A Big Job
me critical water snoriage nere
in Kodiak is working a consider
able hardship on the Water Sup
erintendent Mill Vokaeek, and City
Manager Charlie Truitt. These men
are spending considerable time
after working hours in an endea
vor to alleviate the water shortage.
Long arduous hours are requir
80 beyond the call of duty to in
sure that residents have at least
some water by which to accomp
lish necessary tasks. Continued
cold weather, icy conditions and
lack of equipment have hampered
these men in their efforts.
They can be sure their efforts
are appreciated.
REGISRATIOX HEAVY
AT KODIAK HOTEL
The Kodiak Hotel register re
veals considerable travel in and
out of Kodiak for the past week.
Among the names appearing were
the following:
W.L. Hopkinson, Minneapolis
lloneywell representative from^An
ehorage; John Reeder, Seattle* O.
E. Whitaker and George Hutton of
the Coastwise Line from Anchor
age; E. C. Beete, SeatUe; Ted Le
ven Hagen. Milwaukee, Wis.: Ar
fed Smith, Seattle; J. C. Jackson,
Richland, Wash.; H. K. McKee,
Anchorage: Major Temple and
Capt. Cjirington of Anchorage; W.
C Phillips, who is with the U. S.
Engineers at Fairbanks; Fred Keen
and Len Johnson, Burroughs rep
resentatives from Anchorage, A. L.
Cornell of Anchorage; Bob Priest,
Anchorage; Richard E. Moore, U.
S, Engineers, and Clarence A.
Lande of J. A. Jones, both of whom
went to Sitkinak; D. E. Stykes, Se
attle; H. J. Woodworth, Anchor
age; Arnold F. Anderson of Sew
ard; Major J. Wessmiller, Major
B E. McNeil and Sgt. F. E. Smith
of Fort Richardson, Brad William
of the Oregon Journal and York
Vickers of the Vancouver Sun,
Vancouver, B. C.
ample: “We must have recourse to
crude estimates based on commodi
ty flows, which require interpola
tion for intercensal years and ad
justment from an output basis at
producers’ prices to an installed
basis at cost to ultimate users.”
Why. even when forecasts are
made in dear language, are the ec
onomists so often wrong? News
week ‘provides an answer—made
up of several facets.
For one thing, the statistics;
which are the tools of economic
forecasting, are not always what
they seem to be. They may be out
Of date, sketchy, or inaccurate. Lat
er information may change the
picture greatly.
For another, as Newsweek puts
it, “Economists add to the confu
sion. since they cannot agree them
selves on how to use the tools
they already have.” There are all
kinds of ideas as to the relative
importance .of tangible factors,
such as carldadings and business
failures and so on—to say nothing
of intangible, psychological factors
that stem from human attitudes
and feelings. In the magazine’s
words, “Economics is part science,
part politics, part art. There is
still no set formula that can be
fed into an electronic brain for
the answers. The reason is that
economics deals with people, a
notably unpredictable lot.”
What of the failure? The opinion
seems to be that, as time goes on,
economists will have a higher bat
ting average—particularly in short
term forecasts, and analyses re
stricted to single companies or in
dustries. Meanwhile, they will con
tinue to render a desired and valu
able service—but one that should
be received with certain qualifica
tions. As the frank Dr. Keezer put
it, anyone who takes an econo
mist's advice at 100 per cent face
value is a sucker!
•• mmr* . vS>:
IVORS •*
.Oanunued f.cm *gc I)
- who in the wo:- v oi one of
.cwm.a, “demons .. ated excel
ut seamanship at aii ames, and a
standard of ability.” Crew
; i-n and passengers a. ike made it
iy plain they held him in high
.^teem. Willard Baber, purser
jJird, called him the “coolest
un on the entire vessel.”
John Scribner, messman aboard,
was described as the “hero.” He
accomplished the nearly impossi
ble feat of exhibiting a calmness
he didn’t feel, and conveying it
to the passengers, who were all
placed in his charge. They didn’t
realize the danger they were in,
until much later, and after the
danger was passed. He gathered
them all in number 3 stateroom,
told them stories, made them cof
fee and sandwiches, suggesting
they pack all their belongings as
rescue was not far away. After
meeting him, I could see how he
turned the trick. He was quiet, un
assuming, pleasant and good hu
mored. He was described as “a
fine man and the highest type of
seaman.”
Stories filled with dramatic im
pact were told. Radio communica
tion was destroyed when the ship
ur.o C OAUAPA/I in tiifA nnrl U •>>««
over two hours before an emergen
cy radio and wires strung up could
establish contact with the outside
world. The radioman, who climbed
the remaining mast to string wires
to the antenna, came in for special
mention; Earl D. Bostick.' Chief
Engineer and his staff were others.
They accomplished the near im
possible feat of keeping the emer
gency lights and steam on until
the very end. This was done in the
face of the fact that the forward
bulkhead was taking a terrific beat
ing with disaster threatening every
second.
The dramatic moment when the
Freeman arrived and she was
sighted in the gathering dusk and
snow flurries, was described by
some with emotion. The launching
of the lifeboats, no easy task in a
turbulent sea, engine failure and
being tossed about amid what was
described as 30 to 40 foot waves;
complete failure of one engine un
til one foresighted seaman pulled
out a dry towel from under his
shirt to wipe the spark plugs off;
a man’s wife hanging on to the
rigging aboard the Washington
Mail, who wouldn’t pry loose until
her husband returned, because he
told her to do just that—these and
many more stories were told. Cow
ardice was displayed in one in
stance, we were told, and panic
only twice, which is remarkable
for such danger-fraught circum
stances.
The rescue operation took just
about 40 minutes and without a
single fatality. ’’The heroic work
of Capt. Fulton and his entire
crew was done with the excellence
and fine training that is the core
of the American merchant marine
in emergencies and in disasters at
sea,” according to Willard Baker,
a survivor. “He did a magnificent
job of handling the large ship
against such weather and such a
sea. I owe my life to his judge
ment and fine seamanship.” Baker,
incidentally is a railroad man. He
retired after serving his last year
with the Alaska Railroad and took
to the sea about ten years ago.
Many fine things were said about
his part, too, in the rescue, by
both passengers and crew mem
bers.
The survivors were taken to the
Transient Officers’ quarters, com
monly known as the “little red
schoolhouse” for coffee, and more
interviews and picture taking. By
4 o’clock most of them were on
board the watting Constellation
and on their way home.
I’U. ' DO-. JEK SHOTS
\>t . BE DELAYED
-use ot the present shortage
of Salk vaccine, the Alaska Polio
Advisory Board recommended at
its recent meeting that third vac
cinations, or "booster shots” should
be delayed. Dr. Charles R. Hay
man. acting commissioner of health
reported the polio board’s decision
upon his return to Juneau last
week after attending a meeting of
the advisory group in Anchorage.
“The board feels it is more im
portant to use the available vac
cine for first and second vaccina
tions to eligible chifaren who have
not yet received this protection,”
Dr. Hayman said.
Members of the Polio Advisory
Board are: Dr. Milo Fritz, Dr. Rob
ert Wilkins and Francis Bowden,
pharmacist, of Anchorage; Mrs.
Kenneth Parker of Spenard and
Mrs. Jack Hutchinson of Juneau,
Parent-Teachers association repre
sentatives; and Monte Grisham,
pharmacist, of Juneau.
BABY TWO WEEKS OLD
DIES SUDDENLY SUNDAY
Linda Louise Lapham, daugh
ter of Wesley and Alice Lapham,
died at 4:45 p. m. on Sunday,
March 4, after becoming seriously
ui Saturday night, March 3.
The baby, two weeks old, was
rushed to the Navy Infirmary
Sunday morning, but died that
afternoon.
Besides leaving her bereaved
mother and father, the baby leaves
to mourn her passing, a brother,
Ronald, aged 11, and Nancy, aged
8 years, as well as grandparents
residing in the States. They are
Mr. and Mrs. E^ E. Lapham, Fort
Meyers, Florida and Mr. and Mrs.
Eugene Sawyer, Trent, N. J.
CANNON & LESTER
LEAVE FOR SEATTLE
Pat Cannon, president of the
Kodiak Fish Producers Association
and Eldon Lester will leave for
Seattle next week to attend the
hearing being conducted by the
Federal Trades Commission, March
19.
Lester will represent the LTnited
Fisheries Association. The two
men are going down in an advisory
capacity mainly, but may appear
before the Commission. The hear
ings in Seattle will first be con
ducted .after which they will be
concluded here shortly after, on a
date to be set later.
James Munro arrived back from
a quick trip to the States.
Rank of Kodiak
KODIAK, ALASKA
nkw saorrs* Jbbvicb
Ray Shannon, owner of the Ko
diak Shopper, is driving a now bus
these days. The bus arrived on the
last boat and was put into immedi
ate service. *
The bus gives service to resi
dents along Mission Road on a half
hour basis .providing them with
transportation to and from town.
FREIGHTER HIT
A three and a half by two foot
gash was made in the sides of the
S. S. Seafair, a vessel belonging to
the Coastwise Lines, by a Navy
tug in Woman’s Bay Tuesday after
noon.
The tug was clearing the ice
from around the ship when the
accident occurred. The Coastwise
ship is a 10,000 ton freighter.
Roy A. Christoffersen, son of
Mr. and Mrs. Emil C. Christoffer
son, Kodiak, took the oath of en
listment into the U. S. Army re
cently at Fort Richardson* along
with other Alaskan enlistees, for
three years service. Private Christ
offersen was sworn in by Major
George Dufresne, chief of military
personnel, adjutant general section
and will receive'<16 weeks basic
training at Fort Richardson before
his regular Army assignment.
WENDELL HYLTONS ADDED
TO BAPTIST MISSION STAFF
Mr. and Mrs. Wendell Hylton
and their two children, David, age
6, and Diane, age 3, arrived via
P N A Thursday morning from
Leoti, Kansas.
The Hyltons will be house par
ents at Doane Cottage at the Ko
diak Baptist for the next three
years. This is the couple’s first
appointment to the mission field.
STYLE SHOW
A style show and Easter Parade
will be sponsored by the Emblem
Club Saturday, March 31, at the
Elks Club.
Described as “something differ
ent,” the show will feature some
new “angles” on these ever popu
lar events with ladies.
JUNEAU TRIP PLANNED BY
SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT
Ivor Schott, Superintendent of
the Kodiak schools, is leaving to
night for Juneau.
He is on the territorial Textbook
commission. The commission will
meet next week for the purpose of
revising the list of textbooks to
be used in the territorial schools.