PAI1.I3R, ALASKA
Dorothy M. Bell-Editor
J»ublishcd every week at Palmer, Alaska, for the Matanuska Valley Fafmers* Cooperating
Association for the purpose of giving news of the Associations VIork, Problems,
Accomplishments and dissemination of information of a public character.
SUBSCRIPTION PATE $1.75 lOtf a copy.
WAR OF 15 12 CIVIL WAR WOULD WAR T WORLD WAR II
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A_l_\ II \ <_1_I_I—-H-(-:—I
FreV'ar 1816 1821 frreWar 18S4 1871 frreWar 1919 1921 $TeV7ar 1946 ?
A LOOK II1T0 THE POSSIBLE FUTURE.
Repeated warnings have been sounded by Farm Magazines and Cooperative Magazines and
papers to farmers and to Farmers' Cooperatives that the high prices caused by the
demand'of the Far Years and the Recovery years are due for a drop sometime in the
future. About two years ago the Cooperative Digest came out with ar. article warning
Cooperatives over the nation that their expanded markets were due for a slump and
warned against too large an investment in building programs etc. Magazines are still
pointing out what History proves to have always happened i# the past.
Roland T'. Bart16tt, Professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Illinois,
has .ace a careful study of the effects of Wars on Prices. The above grauh represents
his findings.
This presents a rather pessimistic picture, but should be a timely warning to farmers
to be in shape to'meet a period of lowOr prices rather than to discourage them to go
ahead with future plans. For instance, debts contracted at the present price levels
will be very hard to pay back at a much lower price level.
Follo-ing the graph through, we find that"after the War of 1812, prices of farm pro
ducts reached their highest point in 1816, t*o years after the end of the War. By
1321 prices had fallen to one-half this peak.
During the Civil !7ar prices reached a peak In 1864 nearly double the prices before
the '"an. By 1871 prices had fallen to about 5/8 of those received in 1869.
After the first CorId Tar prices reached the peak in 1919 which was more than double
?re-'.7ar prices. By 1921, two years later prices had fallen to about three fifths of
1919 -rices, . . .
• • • r' V
Following the last war the‘pattern is ^retty much the sdme. In 1946 pr ices were itore
than double Pre 'Tar prices. If—History repeats itself, which i-+ has in the past,
prices will fall in the next few ;«ars. Several factors may prolong the period of
high prices longer than the usual period.One of the greatest of these factors is
our commitments abroad. As long as the world is not able to produce sufficient food
and t: c United States must shoulder a large part of this burden,.then price's may re
main at a comparitively high level.
'pour co-op must also get set'and rd'ady for price drops. ’Vo are now entering a new
era hi agriculture in Aladca. Heretofore, we have had’'only- 'competition from boat
shipped produce. 7e now have and will have increased competition from air-borno
produce fresh from the gardens of the Test Coast, The Co-op must be rAady to meet
that cornet idjion with better quality than we have ever had in'the past. And along
with tlat is certain to come a drop in pricesa The Valley has never been through a
period of low prices such as has been experienced in the States. To have xoerleneed
an overloaded market, but What we have sold has been sold-at fairly good Alices, oven
in times of surplus. So, let*s be prepared.