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Entered as second class matter October 14, 1943, at *he postoffice
at Nome. Alaska, under the Act of March 3. 1679.
Nome, Alaska, Monday, January 3, 1949
Rough Spots At Home And Abroad
Loom For U. S. In 1949
(By News Specialists of The Associated Press)
The Year 1949, will see, contin
ued and intensified, the trends
that moved into the forefront in
foreign and domestic affairs in the
past twelve months.
There seems little prospect of
anything better than a suspicious
stalemate between the United
States and Russia. And at home
there are likely to be more wor
ries about recession trends in in
dustry and agriculture.
Here is how the coming year
looks to t/P) analysts after careful
surveys of their fields:
THE ECONOMY:
Leveling-Off Looms
The year-end finds the United
States operating at a boom pace,
but with the immediate future
more uncertain, especially for
business men, than at any time
since the end of the war.
For most of us the outlook is
good. Three should be a further
leveling off of the boom. The
most-inflated prices should come
down. Some prices will continue
to rise, with an over-all tendency
toward a general price level some
what below that of 1948 but well
above pre-war.
Employment should remain
high. Any fourth-round wage in
creases probably will be less than
of previous rounds, and their ap
plication is likely to be less wide
spread.
The “cold war” between the
Capitalist and Communist worlds
will remain, as long as it lasts, the
chief factor in the uncertainty of
our economic picture at home.
Spending for reconst ruction
abroad and for rearmament are
strong props of our current econo
mic structure.
The general rate of all business
activity probably will be lower in
1949 at best. The cost-price
squeeze is expected to be tighter,
and many businesses will have
trouble breaking even.
Despite widening cracks in the
economy, most authorities see con
tinued prosperity ahead. Several
of the most prominent predict
good times for from one to three
years. They point to generally
more stable conditions than have
prevailed in our previous boom
periods.
All admit, however, that econo
mics refuses to be an exact sci
ence.
ABROAD:
More Drawing of Lines
International matters duri n g
1949 are likely to follow the pat
tern of 194.8. No big war is expect
ed, but the drawing of lines for a
possible World \\*ir III will con
tinue.
The two sectors of Germany
will be incorporated more tight’/
into their respective spheres.
Europe and America will unite
for defense as never before in !
peacetime. Their position vis a vis ]
Russia will be strengthened both
economically and militarily. The
Scandinavian bloc will move clos
er to the west. Italy and Francj
will be stronger but still danger
spots. Unrest in Russia’s eastern
Europe will increase as the Mai
.'hall Plan does its work. Better
organized anti-communist under
grounds will take form. But the
slogan still will be, “liberation
comes only with war.”
The situation in China will be
come worse before it gets better
• if it does). Russia and the U. S.
may establish a new area of con
flict there, or elsewhere in the east
dut to activities of new regional
“Cominform” headquart e r s at
Bangkok.
Americans may wonder whether
we are encouraging Russia’s hope
for a bloodless victory by risking
our resources on such broad
fronts. It is likely we will decide
there is no alternative.
POLITICS:
Big Bills Face Congress
Heading the list of political
questions for 1949 is:
How successful will President
Truman be in getting his program
through the new Congress?
Even though the Democrats will
have 12 more Senate and 92 more
House seats than the Republicans,
much will depend on the make-up
of committees, particularly the
House Rules group. Also, how
many Democratic opponents of
certain measures in the pas' will
switch in view of the election re
turns.
Minimum wage and social se
curity increases, housing, health
and educational-aid bills may
have easier sledding than inflation
controls and Taft-Hartley Act re
vision. Further tax revision will
depend largely on the budget out
look. Southern filibusters could
again hold up civil rights propos
als, though both party platforms
avor them.
National committees: Democrats
probably will meet in the spring.
Then it will be determined whe
ther any “States’ Rights” national
committee members will be re
placed. Republicans are expected
to meet sooner. Republican liber
. als and some conservatives, al
ready moving to “humanize” the
party, may demand a shake-up in
headquarters staff, including pos
s b’e replacement of Chairman
Hugh D. Scott, Jr., Pennsylvania
Congressman.
State legislatures: Forty-four
meet during 1949. Fifteen more
ratifications are needed to enact
a constitutional amendment lim
iting the Prseident to two terms.
Presidential nominee prospects
for 1952. Governor Dewey says he
will not run again, but he may try
to influence a selection. President
Trumans’ aides say he won’t run
either. That leaves the field wide
open in both parties, something
unheard of in years.
THE LOSERS
EiTiiEff
«>IP£
CHINESE
•PEASANTS
LABOR:
A Bad Year for Communisls
In labor-management relations
the spotlight will be on Congress.
The Truman administration will
seek to repeal the Tal't-Hartley
law and the simultaneous passage
| of a new law that would retain
some Taf -Hartley features but
would be much less strict on un
i ions. There will be a terrific battle
over this.
While it is going on, industrial
| relations are likely to remain com
paratively peaceful. Unions and
, employers probably will try not
to rock the boat.
Some unions and maybe most
unions, will demand higher wages.
The extent of these demands will
depend on whether prices rise
higher. The wage picture may not
bcome clear until late spring.
More than ever before, unions will
i make vigorous demands for pen
sion plans and other social insur
ance.
Communists in the labor move
ment are in for a bad year,
j The CIO is renewing its organ
j izing activity not only in the south
but everywhere. The emphasis
will be on white-collar workers.
The CIO and AFL may cooper
ate more than before for the pur
pose of supporting the Truman
legislative program but almost
certainly will not merge.
Political action on the part of
labor unions is here to stay and
will be carried on he year round.
AGRICULTURE:
Farmers Fear Slump
The new year will mark the be
ginning of a struggle to prevent
another agricultural depression.
Farmers passed the peak of the
j war and postwar boom last year.
! Huge foreign demands already are
! beginning to ease. As a reflection
of this, the general level of form
prices has declined 12 per cent
from the record set early in 1948.
Farm leaders are warning of
new economic troubles for farm
ers unless action is taken to mrvn
tain favorable markets and prices.
The government itself is aware
of the dangers. It no longer is
pleading for greater and grea*er
crop output. Instead, it is u*g:n7
farmers to grow less of several
war-expanded crops, such as
wheat, peanu's, flaxseed, rice, and
potatoes.
The year 1949 is expected to see
a return to use of pre-war cron
control measures to prevent new
surpluses of cotton and possibly of
wheat and com. All these crops
will be grown free of controls in
1949, but the government may ap
ply them on 1950 production.
Farm prospects are mixed, how
ever. Meat supplies, continue rela
tively short and high-priced. As a
consequence the government is
urging production of more meat
animals.
The farm situation may well en
gage considerable attention of
Congrses. The question of future
government farm price supports is
being debated. Some farm groups
are dissatisfied with present laws
providing for lower support levels
in 1950.
SCIENCE:
Atomic Advances Ahead
The first postwar atomic fur
nace, also known as pile or reac- j
tor, will go into operation early in !
the year at the Brookhaven Na-'
tional Laboratory, Long Island, N.
Y. The first steps toward atomic
power will be taken at the Knolls
Laboratry at Schenectady, N. Y.,
and in the buliding near Sche iec
tady of the plant that ultimately is
to make the first steam turbine
electricity by use of atomic hear.
Brookhaven will not produce
p »wer, at least a first. It will
dermnstra.e new ways *to make
radioactive atoms and new ways
'o use them in biological experi
ments. Th s pile, a great ma-s of
graphite brie’ s a* big as a fair
sized office building will h"v?:
openings into wh’ch I've animals
can be placed *o en *b;e scicntsts
‘ ) learn mo -e about the beneficial
is *s of nuclear rays.
A great radio telescope lor as
• ’P >my will be completed for the
Naval Research Laboratory in
Maryland, an ear 50 feet in diam
■ter, far bigger than the 200-inch
‘tie.-cope in California. The great
cceiver will pick up radio waves
generated in the sun, on the moon,
n s ars and in mysterious hot
P ts in space. Analysis of these
radio waves will solve some of the
celestial mysteries that cannot be
reached by light in even the big
gest telescopes.
New synthetic gems which do
no4 imitate any natural stones will
annear. There will be new anti
biotic medicines, in the class of
penicillin, made by fungi, molds
and bacteria. One expected ad
vance is new antibiotics to heal
virus diseases, which resist nearly
all kinds of medicine.
Chemistry expects the creation
of some new chemical elements
made wi*h atomic energy.
AVIATION:
Jets Are Taking Over
Military and commercial avia
tion leaders expect continued re
covery in 1949 from a serious case
of postwar shrinkage.
Bodi were practically flat on
their backs a year ago. Recupera
tion became evident after diagno
sis in two famous clinics — the
i- residential and Congressional Air
Policy Boards. The prescriptions
called for heavier doses of federal
funds accompanied by trimming
of frills.
The 1949 outlook depends upon
the supply of medicine. This seems
fairly well assured for the next
12 months, but current talk about
forthcoming national del' e n s e
budgets leaves some uncertainties
for 1950 and beyond.
The Air Force and the Navy will
continue next year their expan
sion in personnel, bases and ships.
Available aircraft probably will
change little in numbers, but there
will be notable shifts in types of
planes in active service. The jets
are .aking ovre.
Aircraft, manufacturers enter
the new year with a business
backlog of $3,000,000,000 and the
prospects of a sizeable profit.
They appear to have made a small
net gain in 1948, with production
of around 2,200 military planes.
The 1949 outlook is for 3,000
military aircraft, more than 150
airline transports, more than 7.000
personal and executive type
planes, and possibly 200 helicop
ters.
The best hope of* the airlines,
looking to 1949 after three losing
years in which more than $40,
)00,000 has been written in red, is
to break even. The Civil Aeronau
tics Board is almost certain to
raise airmail pay next year, while
pre-sing for consolidation of serv
ices, interchange of equipment
and even corporate mergers.
Some benefits from improved
operating methods, modern air
planes and advanced technical
aids for bad weather flying should
be apparent.
MOVIES:
Hollywood's Outlook Grim
Hollywood faces another tough
year in 1949.
Ever since the wartime enter
tainment boom ended, the movie
industry ha-: been beset with a
hornet’s nest of troubles. Loss of
foreign revenue, government suits.
”ising costs, etc., have dogged Hol
lywood for two or three years.
In 1949, Hollywood will again
send its emissaries to foreign lands
to try to get more money home
from showing* of U. S. films. Tneir
success \\*i 11 depend on the econo
m c and political health of the
world. More revenue has to Return
to American film companies before
he industry can regain its stabil
ity.
The U. S. government presents
another problem. It has tolcl the
studios to get rid of their theaters,
and film companies apparently
will have to,divorce themselves
>om theater holdings in 1949.
The need to cut product on
costs put many Hollywood work
ers out of jobs in 1948. Economy
has been reaching rock-bottom in
the studios, and now they will
have to take a forward move.
More pictures will have to be
made to keep the theater* open.
And—most important—good pic
tures will have to be made to gel
people into the theaters.
The movie industry will also
star in another drama in 194^. It’s
titled “Television—Friend or Foe.’’
TELEVISION:
Production Booms
After its first real “boom” year,
television is looking forward to
another in 1949.
By the end of 1948, 725,000 video
receivers had been put into opera