section_path: Impacts/China
section_name: China
paragraph_text: China
  
  Nomura Holdings estimated that eliminating the US de minimis exemption for Chinese goods "would slow Chinese export growth by 1.3 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.2 point". When the US Congress raised the de minimis limit from $200 to $800 in 2016, they sparked a surge in US imports of cheap Chinese goods. A 2023 US House Select Committee report estimated that "nearly half" of all de minimis shipments originated from China. Chinese e-commerce companies Temu and Shein, estimated to comprise more than 30% of daily de minimis exemptions to the US, onboarded more sellers with a physical presence in the US and expanded their distribution facilities beyond China, to mitigate the impact of losing the exemption. In response to the threat of tariffs, Chinese e-commerce groups have bought up significant amounts of storage space at warehouses within the US, accounting for a fifth of new leases in the third quarter of 2024. This change in business strategy has in turn boosted the fortunes of Chinese logistics management firms.
  
  On February 7, 2025, Trump suspended closing the exemption for China until the Secretary of Commerce notified him that adequate systems to process and collect tariff revenue were in place. The exemption is expected to be closed again on May 3, 2025.