section_path: Analysis
section_name: Analysis
paragraph_text: Analysis
  
  Senior fellow Natasha Hall at the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies attributed the government's collapse to the weakening of Assad's traditional allies, with Russia focused on its war in Ukraine and Iran facing regional challenges. Additionally, she posited that Syria's severe economic conditions, with approximately 90 percent of the population living below the poverty line and many living in displacement camps, contributed to the erosion of government support.
  
  Senior analyst Jerome Drevon from the International Crisis Group remarked that it would be "extremely challenging" for the Syrian opposition to decide on a new governing system in Syria given the diversity of the rebel coalition, noting that while "some groups are more structured, more organized," others are "more local entities."
  
  Russian analysts and media generally blamed Assad for losing the war. Semyon Bagdasarov told Komsomolskaya Pravda that the Ba'athist regime failed to motivate its troops and to unite the various Syrian ethnic and religious group around its cause.
  
  Similarly, political scientist Andrey Kortunov wrote that Assad had failed to unite Syrians and achieve national reconciliation, comparing him to former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who was overthrown by the Taliban in 2021. Journalist Vitaly Ryumshin shared this comparison, but partially defended the Syrian government, arguing that the lack of reform was due to economic sanctions on the country and loss of control over the oil resources to the United States and the Kurds.
  
  In a different view, Anton Mardasov, a Russian expert on the Middle East, argued to Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Assad's failure was not due to Western sanctions but because of Al-Assad's failure to deal with the country's problems, specifically mentioning the economic crisis, endemic corruption and nepotism and "the loss of touch with reality and thinking in the paradigm of 50 years ago". Mardasov also told The New York Times that Russia's inability to assist Assad was due to its war with Ukraine.
  
  Similarly, Bassam Haddad limits the importance attributed to international actors (mainly Turkey, the US, and Israel) in assisting HTS to topple the regime. According to Haddad, this perspective overlooks the decades of problems in Syria the regime either created itself or failed to address adequately. Haddad argues these to be equally important as the weakening of the Assad regime through US sanctions, Turkish support for the opposition, and Russia's and Iran's preoccupation with other conflicts.
  
  International editor of Moskovskij Komsomolets Andrei Yashlavsky blamed the Syrian Arab Army for failing to resist and argued that the army's ineffectiveness made Russia's attempt to aid Assad futile. Russian military bloggers were particularly outraged by the fall of Syria, with some protesting against the Russian government and others blaming Assad.