section_path: Climate/Climate change
section_name: Climate change
paragraph_text: Climate change
  
  A 2019 paper published in PLOS One estimated that under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, a "moderate" scenario of climate change where global warming reaches ~ 2.5–3 °C (4.5–5.4 °F) by 2100, the climate of Lagos in the year 2050 would most closely resemble the current climate of Panama City. The annual temperature would increase by 1.6 °C (2.9 °F) and the temperature of the warmest month by 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), while the temperature of the coldest month would be 2.9 °C (5.2 °F) higher. According to Climate Action Tracker, the current warming trajectory appears consistent with 2.7 °C (4.9 °F), which closely matches RCP 4.5.
  
  Moreover, according to the 2022 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Lagos is one of 12 major African cities (Abidjan, Alexandria, Algiers, Cape Town, Casablanca, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Durban, Lagos, Lomé, Luanda and Maputo) that would be the most severely affected by sea level rise. It estimates that they would collectively sustain cumulative damage of US$65 billion under RCP 4.5 and US$86.5 billion in the high-emission scenario RCP 8.5 by the year 2050. Additionally RCP 8.5 combined with the hypothetical impact from marine ice sheet instability at high levels of warming would involve up to US$137.5 billion in damage, while the additional accounting for the "low-probability, high-damage events" may increase aggregate risks to US$187 billion for the "moderate" RCP4.5, US$206 billion for RCP8.5 and US$397 billion under the high-end ice sheet instability scenario. Since sea level rise would continue for about 10,000 years under every scenario of climate change, future costs of sea level rise would only increase, especially without adaptation measures. Sea level rise is being exacerbated by subsidence, which is occurring at up to 87 millimetres (3.4 in) per year.