section_path: Demographic shift/Aging
section_name: Aging
paragraph_text: Aging
  
  The U.S. population is aging, which has significant economic implications for GDP growth, productivity, innovation, inequality, and national debt, according to several studies. The average worker in 2019 was aged 42, vs. 38 in 2000. By 2030, about 59% of adults over 16 will be in the labor force, vs. 62% in 2015. One study estimated that aging since 2000 has reduced productivity between 0.25% and 0.7% per year. Since GDP growth is a function of productivity (output per worker) and the number of workers, both trends slow the GDP growth rate. Older workers save more, which pushes interests rates down, offsetting some of the GDP growth reduction but reducing the Federal Reserve's ability to address a recession by lowering interest rates. Means of addressing the aging trend include immigration (which theoretically brings in younger workers) and higher fertility rates, which can be encouraged by incentives to have more children (e.g., tax breaks, subsidies, and more generous paid leave).
  
  The Congressional Budget Office estimated in May 2019 that mandatory spending (e.g., Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security) will continue growing relative to the size of the economy (GDP) as the population ages. The population aged 65 or older is projected to rise by one-third from 2019–2029. Mandatory program spending (outlays) in 2019 were 12.7% of GDP and are projected to average 14.4% GDP from 2025–2029.
  
  The U.S. population is aging, which has significant economic implications for GDP growth, productivity, innovation, inequality, and national debt, according to several studies. The average worker in 2019 was aged 42, vs. 38 in 2000. By 2030, about 59% of adults over 16 will be in the labor force, vs. 62% in 2015. One study estimated that aging since 2000 has reduced productivity between 0.25% and 0.7% per year. Since GDP growth is a function of productivity (output per worker) and the number of workers, both trends slow the GDP growth rate. Older workers save more, which pushes interests rates down, offsetting some of the GDP growth reduction but reducing the Federal Reserve's ability to address a recession by lowering interest rates. Means of addressing the aging trend include immigration (which theoretically brings in younger workers) and higher fertility rates, which can be encouraged by incentives to have more children (e.g., tax breaks, subsidies, and more generous paid leave).
  
  The Congressional Budget Office estimated in May 2019 that mandatory spending (e.g., Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security) will continue growing relative to the size of the economy (GDP) as the population ages. The population aged 65 or older is projected to rise by one-third from 2019–2029. Mandatory program spending (outlays) in 2019 were 12.7% of GDP and are projected to average 14.4% GDP from 2025–2029.
  
  The U.S. population is aging, which has significant economic implications for GDP growth, productivity, innovation, inequality, and national debt, according to several studies. The average worker in 2019 was aged 42, vs. 38 in 2000. By 2030, about 59% of adults over 16 will be in the labor force, vs. 62% in 2015. One study estimated that aging since 2000 has reduced productivity between 0.25% and 0.7% per year. Since GDP growth is a function of productivity (output per worker) and the number of workers, both trends slow the GDP growth rate. Older workers save more, which pushes interests rates down, offsetting some of the GDP growth reduction but reducing the Federal Reserve's ability to address a recession by lowering interest rates. Means of addressing the aging trend include immigration (which theoretically brings in younger workers) and higher fertility rates, which can be encouraged by incentives to have more children (e.g., tax breaks, subsidies, and more generous paid leave).
  
  The Congressional Budget Office estimated in May 2019 that mandatory spending (e.g., Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security) will continue growing relative to the size of the economy (GDP) as the population ages. The population aged 65 or older is projected to rise by one-third from 2019–2029. Mandatory program spending (outlays) in 2019 were 12.7% of GDP and are projected to average 14.4% GDP from 2025–2029.