section_path: Leader of the Conservative Party (2022–present)/By-elections and opinion polling
section_name: By-elections and opinion polling
paragraph_text: By-elections and opinion polling
  
  Under Poilievre's leadership, the Conservatives won six by-elections, with four retained seats, and two gained seats. On June 24, 2024, the Conservatives won the previously Liberal-held riding of Toronto—St. Paul's in a federal by-election, marking the first time under Poilievre's leadership that the Conservatives won a riding that was previously held by another party. This particular by-election victory gained national attention, as the Liberal Party had held the riding since the 1993 Canadian federal election. The Conservatives won another former Liberal seat in Cloverdale—Langley City on December 16, 2024. Poilievre's first year as leader saw the Conservatives holding a narrow lead over the Liberals according to most opinion polls. During the summer of 2023, the Conservatives experienced a surge in polling support, with their lead increasing to double-digit margins. Most pollsters began writing off the Liberals at this point, with most of them projecting a decisive Conservative victory had Trudeau led them into the election. Poilievre made repeated calls for a general election. The Conservative polling lead disappeared after Trudeau's resignation in January 2025 and the election of Mark Carney as Liberal leader in March. This period also coincided with Trump advancing plans to tariff Canada, a development believed to have disadvantaged Poilievre and advanced the Liberals' standing with the Canadian electorate.
  
  Under Poilievre's leadership, the Conservatives won six by-elections, with four retained seats, and two gained seats. On June 24, 2024, the Conservatives won the previously Liberal-held riding of Toronto—St. Paul's in a federal by-election, marking the first time under Poilievre's leadership that the Conservatives won a riding that was previously held by another party. This particular by-election victory gained national attention, as the Liberal Party had held the riding since the 1993 Canadian federal election. The Conservatives won another former Liberal seat in Cloverdale—Langley City on December 16, 2024. Poilievre's first year as leader saw the Conservatives holding a narrow lead over the Liberals according to most opinion polls. During the summer of 2023, the Conservatives experienced a surge in polling support, with their lead increasing to double-digit margins. Most pollsters began writing off the Liberals at this point, with most of them projecting a decisive Conservative victory had Trudeau led them into the election. Poilievre made repeated calls for a general election. The Conservative polling lead disappeared after Trudeau's resignation in January 2025 and the election of Mark Carney as Liberal leader in March. This period also coincided with Trump advancing plans to tariff Canada, a development believed to have disadvantaged Poilievre and advanced the Liberals' standing with the Canadian electorate.