section_path: Opinion polling and forecasts/Exit poll/Polling accuracy
section_name: Polling accuracy
paragraph_text: Polling accuracy
  
  Following polling inaccuracies in connection with the 2020 presidential election, pollsters took steps to avoid similar errors in 2024. Despite these efforts, national polls underestimated Trump's support once again in 2024. In 2016, national polls were fairly accurate; however, Trump overperformed the polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, leading to his Electoral College victory. In 2020, polls had overestimated Biden's margin over Trump by approximately 4% in competitive states. In 2024, pollsters underestimated Trump's support by smaller margins than they did in 2016 and 2020, and their underestimation of that support was within the realm of a normal polling error. Going into the election, most polls showed the race to be neck and neck and within the margin of error. In every swing state, Trump outperformed his final polling numbers by approximately 3%, which is in line with a typical margin of error. Compared with the 2020 polls, the margin of error in 2024 in swing states was lower and high-quality national polls were more accurate.
  
  Polling averages vastly underestimated Trump's strength in both safe red and safe blue states. Florida and Texas were both projected to go for Trump by about 7%; he won each of them by about 13%. Pollster Ann Selzer released a poll in Iowa that had Harris winning the state by 3%, only for Trump to take the state by 13%. On the other hand, New Jersey was projected to be a safe state for Harris but most news stations waited until 90% of the vote was in before calling it for Harris, as she was only leading by 5%.
  
  Following polling inaccuracies in connection with the 2020 presidential election, pollsters took steps to avoid similar errors in 2024. Despite these efforts, national polls underestimated Trump's support once again in 2024. In 2016, national polls were fairly accurate; however, Trump overperformed the polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, leading to his Electoral College victory. In 2020, polls had overestimated Biden's margin over Trump by approximately 4% in competitive states. In 2024, pollsters underestimated Trump's support by smaller margins than they did in 2016 and 2020, and their underestimation of that support was within the realm of a normal polling error. Going into the election, most polls showed the race to be neck and neck and within the margin of error. In every swing state, Trump outperformed his final polling numbers by approximately 3%, which is in line with a typical margin of error. Compared with the 2020 polls, the margin of error in 2024 in swing states was lower and high-quality national polls were more accurate.
  
  Polling averages vastly underestimated Trump's strength in both safe red and safe blue states. Florida and Texas were both projected to go for Trump by about 7%; he won each of them by about 13%. Pollster Ann Selzer released a poll in Iowa that had Harris winning the state by 3%, only for Trump to take the state by 13%. On the other hand, New Jersey was projected to be a safe state for Harris but most news stations waited until 90% of the vote was in before calling it for Harris, as she was only leading by 5%.