section_path: Campaign/Possible coalitions
section_name: Possible coalitions
paragraph_text: Possible coalitions
  
  A renewal of the outgoing traffic light coalition was not deemed desirable by any of the three parties. Lindner of the FDP categorically disavowed any prospects of his party joining such a coalition in November following his removal from the government if his party entered the Bundestag again.
  
  A government led by the CDU/CSU was seen as most likely, given it held a large polling lead. Merz was seen as willing to discuss a coalition with the SPD, FDP and Greens; however, CSU leader Söder has openly refused to enter a government with the Greens. Representatives of both parties have stated that a black–green coalition would be difficult to manage. A fifth grand coalition in Germany's history between the CDU and SPD can thus be considered the most realistic outcome of government formation. Such a coalition was also preferred by the voters, being the most popular government arrangement in opinion polling. However, Söder stipulated that he would only support the black-red alliance so long as incumbent SPD chancellor Scholz is not included in the next cabinet. Scholz indicated his intention to step down from leadership post-election and be uninvolved in coalition formation, paving the way for negotiations on a grand coalition.
  
  FDP leader Lindner had indicated his desire to form a government with the CDU/CSU, a frequent coalition throughout modern German history and last represented in the second Merkel cabinet. Merz stated that only if the FDP's polling figures increased to six or seven percent would "a stable majority be in reach". FDP Bundestag Vice-President Wolfgang Kubicki has supported a black-red-yellow "Germany coalition", including the SPD. The FDP failed to reach the 5% necessary for Bundestag representation, and discussions on the idea were rendered moot.
  
  Difficulty in predicting coalitions before the elections came due to the fact that the BSW, FDP, and Linke were all polling around 5% shortly before the election, while the Free Voters were well below 5%. In the end, only Linke of the four smaller parties made it into the Bundestag, meaning that coalition formation could mathematically result in a grand coalition.