section_path: Impact of climate change on production
section_name: Impact of climate change on production
paragraph_text: Impact of climate change on production
  
  Climate change is predicted to have significant effects on global potato production. Like many crops, potatoes are likely to be affected by changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and precipitation, as well as interactions between these factors. As well as affecting potatoes directly, climate change will also affect the distributions and populations of many potato diseases and pests. While the potato is less important than maize, rice, wheat and soybeans, which are collectively responsible for around two-thirds of all calories consumed by humans (both directly and indirectly as animal feed), it still is one of the world's most important food crops. Altogether, one 2003 estimate suggests that future (2040 – 2069) worldwide potato yield would be 18-32% lower than it was at the time, driven by declines in hotter areas like Sub-Saharan Africa, unless farmers and potato cultivars can adapt to the new environment.
  
  Potato plants and crop yields are predicted to benefit from the CO2 fertilization effect, which would increase photosynthetic rates and therefore growth, reduce water consumption through lower transpiration from stomata and increase starch content in the edible tubers. However, potatoes are more sensitive to soil water deficits than some other staple crops like wheat. In the UK, the amount of arable land suitable for rainfed potato production is predicted to decrease by at least 75%. These changes are likely to lead to increased demand for irrigation water, particularly during the potato growing season.
  
  Potatoes grow best under temperate conditions. Temperatures above 30 °C (86 °F) have negative effects on potato crops, from physiological damage such as brown spots on tubers, to slower growth, premature sprouting, and lower starch content. These effects reduce crop yield, affecting both the number and the weight of tubers. As a result, areas where current temperatures are near the limits of potatoes' temperature range (e.g. much of sub-Saharan Africa) will likely suffer large reductions in potato crop yields in the future. On the other hand, low temperatures reduce potato growth and present risk of frost damage.