section_path: Effects/United States/US consumer impact
section_name: US consumer impact
paragraph_text: US consumer impact
  
  Analysis by Goldman Sachs in May 2019 found that the consumer price index for nine categories of tariffed goods had increased much more than goods not impacted by tariffs. The CPI for tariffed goods increased, while it declined for all other core goods.
  
  Surveys of consumer sentiment and small business confidence showed sharp declines in August 2019 on uncertainty caused by the trade war. The closely followed Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management showed contraction in August, for the first time since January 2016; the ISM quoted several executives expressing anxiety about the continuing trade war, citing shrinking export orders and the challenges of shifting their supply chains out of China. The IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index also showed contraction in August, for the first time since September 2009. The day the ISM report was released, Trump tweeted, "China's Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone!"
  
  According to the Consumer Technology Association, a 60% tariff on Chinese imports could increase the price of laptops and tablets by up to 46% and smartphones by up to 26%. It is estimated by the National Retail Federation that consumers will have to pay an extra $6.4–$10.9 billion for appliances with tariffs.