section_path: Government/Disputes over economic data
section_name: Disputes over economic data
paragraph_text: Disputes over economic data
  
  There exists disputes over reliability of official economic data. Foreign and some Chinese sources have claimed that official Chinese government statistics overstate China's economic growth. However, several Western academics and institutions have stated that China's economic growth is higher than indicated by official figures. Others, such as the Economist Intelligence Unit, state that while there's evidence China's GDP data is "smoothed", they believe that China's nominal and real GDP data are broadly accurate. Still, others state that reported GDP growth is irreconcilable with data coming out of China. In 2024, the United States Department of Agriculture stopped relying on official Chinese government data over reliability concerns. According to 2007 documents obtained by WikiLeaks, Liaoning Party Secretary and future Premier Li Keqiang said he is far from confident in the country's GDP estimates, calling them "man-made" and unreliable and that data releases, especially the GDP numbers, should be used "for reference only". In its place, he developed the Li Keqiang index is an alternative measurement of Chinese economic performance that uses three variables he preferred.
  
  Chinese provinces and cities have long been suspected of cooking their numbers, with the focus on local government officials, whose performance are often assessed based on how well their respective economies have performed. Local governments have come under increased scrutiny over economic data, with CCP general secretary Xi Jinping stating that economic data forgery "not only hurt our judgment of the economic situation, but also seriously undermined the Communist Party's ideas and truth-seeking style".
  
  "We do not know the true number of China’s real growth figure", Gao Shanwen, chief economist at SDIC Securities and adviser to the government, said at a Peterson Institute event on 12 December 2024. He thought that the economy had grown by about 2% annually, compared to the official 5% figure. Gao expected that the economy would grow by 3–4% annually over the next several years "but we know the official number will always be around 5%". His words reportedly caused the government to ban Gao from speaking publicly. While he did not lose his job, the Securities Association of China ordered brokerages and investment firms to make sure that their economists "play a positive role"; those that do not obey may be fired. In January 2025, Xi aide Cai Qi ordered propaganda officials to block negative economic news.
  
  According to a 2019 research paper published by the Brookings Institution adjusting the historical GDP time series using value-added tax data, which the authors said are "highly resistant to fraud and tampering", China's economic growth may have been overstated by 1.7 percent each year between 2008 and 2016, meaning that the government may have been overstating the size of the Chinese economy by 12–16 percent in 2016.
  
  Several Western academics and institutions have supported the claim that China's economy is likely to be underestimated. A paper by the US-based National Bureau of Economic Research claimed that China's economic growth may be higher than what is reported by official statistics. An article by Hunter Clarka, Maxim Pinkovskiya and Xavier Sala-i-Martin published by the Elsevier Science Direct in 2018 employs an innovative method of satellite-recorded nighttime lights, which the authors claim to be a best-unbiased predictor of the economic growth in Chinese cities. The results suggest that the Chinese economic growth rate is higher than the official reported data.
  
  Satellite measurements of light pollution are used by some analysts to model Chinese economic growth and suggest growth rate numbers in Chinese official data are more reliable, though are likely to be smoothed. According to an article by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, China's official statistics are of a high quality compared to other developing, middle-income and low-income countries. In 2016, China was at the 83rd percentile of middle and low-income countries, up from the 38th percentile in 2004. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that China's official GDP statistics are "significantly and positively correlated" with externally verifiable measures of economic activity such as import and export data from China's trade partners, suggesting that China's economic growth was no slower than the official figures indicated.
  
  The Rhodium Group, an independent research think tank, has consistently questioned the accuracy of China's official GDP figures. Their analysis suggests that China's economic growth has been systematically overstated in recent years due to structural issues and "authority bias" in official data. According to Rhodium's estimates, actual GDP growth in 2024 ranged between 2.4% and 2.8%, significantly lower than the official claim of 4.8%. This discrepancy is carried beyond, China's GDP has been inflated by approximately 3 percentage points annually since at least 2022. If these adjustments are accurate, the overall size of China's economy could be around 10% smaller than reported since their tracking has started, equating to a reduction of approximately $1.7 trillion in GDP.
  
  The Rhodium Group attributes these discrepancies to several factors, including collapsing real estate activity, declining local government investment, and weak household consumption. Their research shows that official data fails to capture the severity of these challenges, which presents a misleadingly stable growth narrative. For instance, in 2024, property sector declines and reductions in infrastructure investment were significant, yet the official figures suggested stable contributions from these sectors. Similarly, government fiscal spending and household consumption, which Rhodium argues are critical indicators of economic health, were far weaker than reported.
  
  The study by Daniel H. Rosen and Beibei Bao, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2015, showed that GDP in 2008 was actually 13–16 percent bigger than the official data, while 2013 GDP was accurately at $10.5 trillion rather than the official figure at $9.5 trillion. According to a research conducted by Arvind Subramanian, a former economist at the International Money Fund (IMF) and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the size of the Chinese economy by Purchasing Power Parity in 2010 was about $14.8 trillion rather than an official estimate at $10.1 trillion by IMF, meaning that China's GDP was underestimated by 47 percent.
  
  There exists disputes over reliability of official economic data. Foreign and some Chinese sources have claimed that official Chinese government statistics overstate China's economic growth. However, several Western academics and institutions have stated that China's economic growth is higher than indicated by official figures. Others, such as the Economist Intelligence Unit, state that while there's evidence China's GDP data is "smoothed", they believe that China's nominal and real GDP data are broadly accurate. Still, others state that reported GDP growth is irreconcilable with data coming out of China. In 2024, the United States Department of Agriculture stopped relying on official Chinese government data over reliability concerns. According to 2007 documents obtained by WikiLeaks, Liaoning Party Secretary and future Premier Li Keqiang said he is far from confident in the country's GDP estimates, calling them "man-made" and unreliable and that data releases, especially the GDP numbers, should be used "for reference only". In its place, he developed the Li Keqiang index is an alternative measurement of Chinese economic performance that uses three variables he preferred.
  
  Chinese provinces and cities have long been suspected of cooking their numbers, with the focus on local government officials, whose performance are often assessed based on how well their respective economies have performed. Local governments have come under increased scrutiny over economic data, with CCP general secretary Xi Jinping stating that economic data forgery "not only hurt our judgment of the economic situation, but also seriously undermined the Communist Party's ideas and truth-seeking style".
  
  "We do not know the true number of China’s real growth figure", Gao Shanwen, chief economist at SDIC Securities and adviser to the government, said at a Peterson Institute event on 12 December 2024. He thought that the economy had grown by about 2% annually, compared to the official 5% figure. Gao expected that the economy would grow by 3–4% annually over the next several years "but we know the official number will always be around 5%". His words reportedly caused the government to ban Gao from speaking publicly. While he did not lose his job, the Securities Association of China ordered brokerages and investment firms to make sure that their economists "play a positive role"; those that do not obey may be fired. In January 2025, Xi aide Cai Qi ordered propaganda officials to block negative economic news.
  
  According to a 2019 research paper published by the Brookings Institution adjusting the historical GDP time series using value-added tax data, which the authors said are "highly resistant to fraud and tampering", China's economic growth may have been overstated by 1.7 percent each year between 2008 and 2016, meaning that the government may have been overstating the size of the Chinese economy by 12–16 percent in 2016.
  
  Several Western academics and institutions have supported the claim that China's economy is likely to be underestimated. A paper by the US-based National Bureau of Economic Research claimed that China's economic growth may be higher than what is reported by official statistics. An article by Hunter Clarka, Maxim Pinkovskiya and Xavier Sala-i-Martin published by the Elsevier Science Direct in 2018 employs an innovative method of satellite-recorded nighttime lights, which the authors claim to be a best-unbiased predictor of the economic growth in Chinese cities. The results suggest that the Chinese economic growth rate is higher than the official reported data.
  
  Satellite measurements of light pollution are used by some analysts to model Chinese economic growth and suggest growth rate numbers in Chinese official data are more reliable, though are likely to be smoothed. According to an article by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, China's official statistics are of a high quality compared to other developing, middle-income and low-income countries. In 2016, China was at the 83rd percentile of middle and low-income countries, up from the 38th percentile in 2004. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that China's official GDP statistics are "significantly and positively correlated" with externally verifiable measures of economic activity such as import and export data from China's trade partners, suggesting that China's economic growth was no slower than the official figures indicated.
  
  The Rhodium Group, an independent research think tank, has consistently questioned the accuracy of China's official GDP figures. Their analysis suggests that China's economic growth has been systematically overstated in recent years due to structural issues and "authority bias" in official data. According to Rhodium's estimates, actual GDP growth in 2024 ranged between 2.4% and 2.8%, significantly lower than the official claim of 4.8%. This discrepancy is carried beyond, China's GDP has been inflated by approximately 3 percentage points annually since at least 2022. If these adjustments are accurate, the overall size of China's economy could be around 10% smaller than reported since their tracking has started, equating to a reduction of approximately $1.7 trillion in GDP.
  
  The Rhodium Group attributes these discrepancies to several factors, including collapsing real estate activity, declining local government investment, and weak household consumption. Their research shows that official data fails to capture the severity of these challenges, which presents a misleadingly stable growth narrative. For instance, in 2024, property sector declines and reductions in infrastructure investment were significant, yet the official figures suggested stable contributions from these sectors. Similarly, government fiscal spending and household consumption, which Rhodium argues are critical indicators of economic health, were far weaker than reported.
  
  The study by Daniel H. Rosen and Beibei Bao, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2015, showed that GDP in 2008 was actually 13–16 percent bigger than the official data, while 2013 GDP was accurately at $10.5 trillion rather than the official figure at $9.5 trillion. According to a research conducted by Arvind Subramanian, a former economist at the International Money Fund (IMF) and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the size of the Chinese economy by Purchasing Power Parity in 2010 was about $14.8 trillion rather than an official estimate at $10.1 trillion by IMF, meaning that China's GDP was underestimated by 47 percent.
  
  There exists disputes over reliability of official economic data. Foreign and some Chinese sources have claimed that official Chinese government statistics overstate China's economic growth. However, several Western academics and institutions have stated that China's economic growth is higher than indicated by official figures. Others, such as the Economist Intelligence Unit, state that while there's evidence China's GDP data is "smoothed", they believe that China's nominal and real GDP data are broadly accurate. Still, others state that reported GDP growth is irreconcilable with data coming out of China. In 2024, the United States Department of Agriculture stopped relying on official Chinese government data over reliability concerns. According to 2007 documents obtained by WikiLeaks, Liaoning Party Secretary and future Premier Li Keqiang said he is far from confident in the country's GDP estimates, calling them "man-made" and unreliable and that data releases, especially the GDP numbers, should be used "for reference only". In its place, he developed the Li Keqiang index is an alternative measurement of Chinese economic performance that uses three variables he preferred.
  
  Chinese provinces and cities have long been suspected of cooking their numbers, with the focus on local government officials, whose performance are often assessed based on how well their respective economies have performed. Local governments have come under increased scrutiny over economic data, with CCP general secretary Xi Jinping stating that economic data forgery "not only hurt our judgment of the economic situation, but also seriously undermined the Communist Party's ideas and truth-seeking style".
  
  "We do not know the true number of China’s real growth figure", Gao Shanwen, chief economist at SDIC Securities and adviser to the government, said at a Peterson Institute event on 12 December 2024. He thought that the economy had grown by about 2% annually, compared to the official 5% figure. Gao expected that the economy would grow by 3–4% annually over the next several years "but we know the official number will always be around 5%". His words reportedly caused the government to ban Gao from speaking publicly. While he did not lose his job, the Securities Association of China ordered brokerages and investment firms to make sure that their economists "play a positive role"; those that do not obey may be fired. In January 2025, Xi aide Cai Qi ordered propaganda officials to block negative economic news.
  
  According to a 2019 research paper published by the Brookings Institution adjusting the historical GDP time series using value-added tax data, which the authors said are "highly resistant to fraud and tampering", China's economic growth may have been overstated by 1.7 percent each year between 2008 and 2016, meaning that the government may have been overstating the size of the Chinese economy by 12–16 percent in 2016.
  
  Several Western academics and institutions have supported the claim that China's economy is likely to be underestimated. A paper by the US-based National Bureau of Economic Research claimed that China's economic growth may be higher than what is reported by official statistics. An article by Hunter Clarka, Maxim Pinkovskiya and Xavier Sala-i-Martin published by the Elsevier Science Direct in 2018 employs an innovative method of satellite-recorded nighttime lights, which the authors claim to be a best-unbiased predictor of the economic growth in Chinese cities. The results suggest that the Chinese economic growth rate is higher than the official reported data.
  
  Satellite measurements of light pollution are used by some analysts to model Chinese economic growth and suggest growth rate numbers in Chinese official data are more reliable, though are likely to be smoothed. According to an article by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, China's official statistics are of a high quality compared to other developing, middle-income and low-income countries. In 2016, China was at the 83rd percentile of middle and low-income countries, up from the 38th percentile in 2004. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that China's official GDP statistics are "significantly and positively correlated" with externally verifiable measures of economic activity such as import and export data from China's trade partners, suggesting that China's economic growth was no slower than the official figures indicated.
  
  The Rhodium Group, an independent research think tank, has consistently questioned the accuracy of China's official GDP figures. Their analysis suggests that China's economic growth has been systematically overstated in recent years due to structural issues and "authority bias" in official data. According to Rhodium's estimates, actual GDP growth in 2024 ranged between 2.4% and 2.8%, significantly lower than the official claim of 4.8%. This discrepancy is carried beyond, China's GDP has been inflated by approximately 3 percentage points annually since at least 2022. If these adjustments are accurate, the overall size of China's economy could be around 10% smaller than reported since their tracking has started, equating to a reduction of approximately $1.7 trillion in GDP.
  
  The Rhodium Group attributes these discrepancies to several factors, including collapsing real estate activity, declining local government investment, and weak household consumption. Their research shows that official data fails to capture the severity of these challenges, which presents a misleadingly stable growth narrative. For instance, in 2024, property sector declines and reductions in infrastructure investment were significant, yet the official figures suggested stable contributions from these sectors. Similarly, government fiscal spending and household consumption, which Rhodium argues are critical indicators of economic health, were far weaker than reported.
  
  The study by Daniel H. Rosen and Beibei Bao, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2015, showed that GDP in 2008 was actually 13–16 percent bigger than the official data, while 2013 GDP was accurately at $10.5 trillion rather than the official figure at $9.5 trillion. According to a research conducted by Arvind Subramanian, a former economist at the International Money Fund (IMF) and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the size of the Chinese economy by Purchasing Power Parity in 2010 was about $14.8 trillion rather than an official estimate at $10.1 trillion by IMF, meaning that China's GDP was underestimated by 47 percent.