section_path: Flood predictions/Mathematical models and computer tools
section_name: Mathematical models and computer tools
paragraph_text: Mathematical models and computer tools
  
  A series of annual maximum flow rates in a stream reach can be analyzed statistically to estimate the 100-year flood and floods of other recurrence intervals there. Similar estimates from many sites in a hydrologically similar region can be related to measurable characteristics of each drainage basin to allow indirect estimation of flood recurrence intervals for stream reaches without sufficient data for direct analysis.
  
  Physical process models of channel reaches are generally well understood and will calculate the depth and area of inundation for given channel conditions and a specified flow rate, such as for use in floodplain mapping and flood insurance. Conversely, given the observed inundation area of a recent flood and the channel conditions, a model can calculate the flow rate. Applied to various potential channel configurations and flow rates, a reach model can contribute to selecting an optimum design for a modified channel. Various reach models are available as of 2015, either 1D models (flood levels measured in the channel) or 2D models (variable flood depths measured across the extent of a floodplain). HEC-RAS, the Hydraulic Engineering Center model, is among the most popular software, if only because it is available free of charge. Other models such as TUFLOW combine 1D and 2D components to derive flood depths across both river channels and the entire floodplain.
  
  Physical process models of complete drainage basins are even more complex. Although many processes are well understood at a point or for a small area, others are poorly understood at all scales, and process interactions under normal or extreme climatic conditions may be unknown. Basin models typically combine land-surface process components (to estimate how much rainfall or snowmelt reaches a channel) with a series of reach models. For example, a basin model can calculate the runoff hydrograph that might result from a 100-year storm, although the recurrence interval of a storm is rarely equal to that of the associated flood. Basin models are commonly used in flood forecasting and warning, as well as in analysis of the effects of land use change and climate change.
  
  In the United States, an integrated approach to real-time hydrologic computer modelling uses observed data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), various cooperative observing networks, various automated weather sensors, the NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC), various hydroelectric companies, etc. combined with quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) of expected rainfall and/or snow melt to generate daily or as-needed hydrologic forecasts. The NWS also cooperates with Environment Canada on hydrologic forecasts that affect both the US and Canada, like in the area of the Saint Lawrence Seaway.
  
  The Global Flood Monitoring System, "GFMS", a computer tool which maps flood conditions worldwide, is available online. Users anywhere in the world can use GFMS to determine when floods may occur in their area. GFMS uses precipitation data from NASA 's Earth observing satellites and the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite, "GPM". Rainfall data from GPM is combined with a land surface model that incorporates vegetation cover, soil type, and terrain to determine how much water is soaking into the ground, and how much water is flowing into streamflow.
  
  Users can view statistics for rainfall, streamflow, water depth, and flooding every 3 hours, at each 12-kilometer gridpoint on a global map. Forecasts for these parameters are 5 days into the future. Users can zoom in to see inundation maps (areas estimated to be covered with water) in 1-kilometer resolution.