section_path: Impacts/Long-term demographic effects
section_name: Long-term demographic effects
paragraph_text: Long-term demographic effects
  
  Both Russia and Ukraine faced the prospect of significant population decline even before the war, having among the lowest fertility rates worldwide and considerable emigration. It is the first time that two countries with an average age above 40 have gone to war against each other. Russia had a fighting-age (18-to-40-year-old) male population more than four times higher than Ukraine's and slightly higher birth rates, while the willingness to fight was more pronounced in Ukraine.
  
  Several sources have pointed out that the war is considerably worsening Ukraine's demographic crisis, making significant shrinking very likely. A July 2023 study by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies stated that,
  
  regardless of how long the war lasts and whether or not there is further military escalation, Ukraine is unlikely to recover demographically from the consequences of the war. Even in 2040 it will have only about 35 million inhabitants, around 20% fewer than before the war (2021: 42.8 million) and the decline in the working-age population is likely to be the most severe and far-reaching.
  
  The study took different scenarios, from a "best case" (end of the war in 2023 without much further escalation) to a "worst case" (end of the war in 2025 with further escalation) into account. Flight from war affected especially the southern and eastern regions and especially educated women of child-bearing age and their children. With an estimate of more than 20% of refugees not returning, study author Maryna Tverdostup concluded that long-term shrinking will significantly impair the conditions for reconstruction.
  
  The war in Ukraine and the associated emigration, lower birth rates and war-related casualties further deepened the demographic crisis of Russia. Many commentators predict that the situation will be worse than during the 1990s. The UN is projecting that the decline that started in 2021 will continue, and if current demographic conditions persist, Russia's population would be 120 million in fifty years, a decline of about 17%.
  
  Since February 2022, hundreds of thousands of Russians have emigrated; estimates range from 370,000 to over 820,000. Combined with mobilisation, this possibly removed roughly half a million to one million working-age males from Russia's population. Studies report that this will have a demographic effect, especially in Russia, that lasts much longer than the conflict, and Putin's time in office.
  
  According to BBC:
  
  They come from different walks of life. Some are journalists like us, but there are also IT experts, designers, artists, academics, lawyers, doctors, PR specialists, and linguists. Most are under 50. Many share western liberal values and hope Russia will be a democratic country one day. Some are LGBTQ+. Sociologists studying the current Russian emigration say there is evidence that those leaving are younger, better educated and wealthier than those staying. More often they are from bigger cities.
  
  According to Johannes Wachs, "The exodus of skilled human capital, sometimes called brain drain, out of Russia may have a significant effect on the course of the war and the Russian economy in the long run." According to a survey, around 15 percent of those who left returned to Russia, either permanently or to settle their affairs.
  
  In November 2023, at the World Russian People's Council, Putin urged Russian women to have eight or more children amid increasing Russian casualties in the invasion.
  
  In July 2024, Chief of the General Staff of the British Army Roland Walker said that with the current way of fighting, it would take Russia five years to control the four oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia that Russia claims as its own, and it would cost Russia from 1.5 to 1.8 million casualties. He said there are "no winners" in Russia's invasion, adding "it is an utter devastation for both sides and lost generations."