section_path: Aftermath/Reactions/On the accuracy of pre-election polls
section_name: On the accuracy of pre-election polls
paragraph_text: On the accuracy of pre-election polls
  
  Election winners Aquino, Marcoleta, and Pangilinan did not figure well in the last surveys prior to the election. In contrast, Ben Tulfo, Bong Revilla, and Abigail Binay, who were often included in the top 12 candidates in the surveys, were not able to win. Alyansa underperformed, winning six seats, fewer than polls predicted, with none of the election’s top three candidates coming from the alliance. Predicted topnotcher Erwin Tulfo finished fourth, Tito Sotto slipped from third to eighth, Lito Lapid fell from fourth to eleventh, and Abigail Binay and Bong Revilla, who were in the top 12, finished outside the winning places. The DuterTen ticket secured three seats, alongside two guest candidates. The remaining two seats went to the KiBam ticket, who defied pre-election polls and won. COMELEC chairman George Garcia said that surveys may have missed several key factors on why they missed the result. Garcia pointed out that the sampling may not have optimal, and poll respondents may not have been truthful in answering or had changed their minds at the last minute.
  
  Ronald Holmes, president of the Pulse Asia polling company, said that this "was the first time where we basically had movements in ranks that were quite significant," and that their last survey was conducted "three weeks before the elections—and a lot happened then." The company also noted that the machineries of the Marcos and Duterte may have struggled to mobilize voter support, as support for the Marcos-backed Alyansa dropped in several regions in Luzon while the DuterTen underperformed in Mindanao. It added that several candidates, mostly independent or progressive, received higher actual votes compared to final pre-election surveys.
  
  The millennials and generation Z comprise 60% of registered voters. Cleve Arguelles of WR Numero Research said that the youth repudiated both Marcos and Duterte slates, and voted for KiBam. Ana de Villa-Singson of the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting pointed out that surveys done in schools are substantially different from surveys done by pollsters, with the KiBam candidates being included in the top 12. Eric Alvia of the National Citizens' Movement for Free Elections said that the voters' rejection of the Alyansa "may be a referendum on the administration's performance and satisfaction. Another factor is that it is a clear message of a strong support especially in the D/E class and Mindanao vote from Duterte et al supporters."