section_path: Analysis and aftermath
section_name: Analysis and aftermath
paragraph_text: Analysis and aftermath
  
  Significant milestones included the following:
  
  The election results represented a significant contrast to the polling estimates prior to the election. In December 2024, the Conservatives had a 20 percentage point lead over the Liberals; however, Trudeau's resignation and U.S. president Donald Trump 's hostile foreign policy towards Canada were reasons that led to a significant change in public opinion that favored the Liberals. Comparisons have been made to the Australian federal election held on May 3, 2025, where the incumbent centre-left government, led by the Labor Party, overturned a significant deficit in polling, made gains, and remained in government. Commentators spoke of a negative "Trump effect" as the Australian opposition conservative leader Peter Dutton also lost his seat.
  
  Strategic voting played a role in the election, which benefitted the Liberals, moving it closer to a two-party system. The declining performance of the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the election was also attributed to strategic voting. Alex Marland, the Jarislowsky chair in trust and political leadership at Acadia University in Nova Scotia, said that Trump's interference and threats significantly affected the results, stating, "It really galvanized progressives, people on the political left. You can see the collapse of the NDP vote. A big reason for people who would have voted NDP ending up voting Liberal was really because of fear over Donald Trump." Gabriel Arsenault, a political science professor at the Université de Moncton, emphasised the results being closer to a two-party system. In December 2024, the Liberals and Conservatives were polling together around 65 percent of the intention votes versus the around 85 percent they got in the election. In reference to the NDP, Arsenault added, " Poilievre sought votes among workers, and usually that would be the main group where the NDP got its votes, so I think it has to transform itself." As for the Green Party, which won only one seat, Arsenault said, "We'll have to see if this is just temporary because of Trump, or this is illustrative of a bigger trend here."
  
  Abacus Data determined the following migration patterns of voters from 2021:
  
  Analysis by The Economist, which called the 29-point swing comeback in polls by the Liberals as "one of the widest on record in any democracy", noted that the two best predictors of the margin shift from Conservatives to Liberals were education and immigration: the Liberals gained in ridings with more university graduates and native-born voters, while the Conservatives benefited in ridings with more voters who were either foreign-born or did not hold degrees. Religion was also a factor in certain results, where secular and Muslim voters tended to favour the Liberals while more heavily Jewish ridings swung to the Conservatives.
  
  According to a postmortem inquiry by the Toronto Star, the Liberals and Conservatives both experienced fortunate incidents and missteps. Members of the Liberal election team were estimating a final seat total of 181 to 190 seats, while the party's computer modelling was suggesting a lesser number. While a Léger poll in February suggested a dead heat between the two parties if Carney became the Liberal leader, the Liberals were relieved when the Tories initially chose to focus their attacks on Carney's actions during his time in the private sector, as opposed to the more effective gambit in the last two weeks of the campaign of emphasizing the point that the Liberals "might be trying to pull a fast one on the country" by switching leaders. The Liberals were slow to catch on to underlying shifts in voter sentiments until candidates were reporting from key races in the Greater Toronto Area, Alberta and BC that second-generation Sikhs, Hindus, Muslims and Italians (especially among younger men) were moving over to the Conservatives because of issues relating to public safety and immigration. Liberal attempts to address the issue chose to focus on gun control, an area voters did not consider relevant. On the other side, many Conservatives believed that the tone set by Poilievre turned off many traditional supporters, and there was evidence that the significant lead the party enjoyed during the previous year was the result of " the poll numbers for our own popularity, as opposed to disgust with Justin Trudeau". Morale among the party's backbenchers and grassroots was also affected by Poilievre's management of the campaign, and it was estimated that 110 riding nomination races were cancelled in favour of parachuting candidates directly in. After election day, when it became apparent that both parties had come up short of their expected majority, the question posed by one Liberal insider was, "How do you end up winning Bay of Quinte but losing Brampton West ?" Many observed that the resultant grouping of Liberal supporters was significantly influenced by the influx of NDP voters, Quebec nationalists and "white men over 50", while Conservative efforts to attract younger voters, union members and immigrants proved to be successful.