section_path: Achievability
section_name: Achievability
paragraph_text: Achievability
  
  In a 2017 study, the chances of achieving the 1.5-degree target were rated as low. At that time, it was assumed that even without further greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would still rise to at least 1.1 °C compared to pre-industrial times, and with a probability of 13% even to 1.5 °C or more. A second study from the same year considers it unlikely that global warming will even be limited to 2 °C by 2100, let alone 1.5 °C. According to models at the time, which relied on predictions about gross domestic product per capita and population development, among other things, the probability of achieving this target was estimated at just one percent.
  
  However, the IPCC 's 1.5-degree global warming special report published in October 2018 concludes that the 1.5-degree target is still achievable. To achieve this, human CO emissions would have to start falling significantly long before 2030 and reach net zero emissions from around 2050. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in this relatively short period of time, a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources and a predominantly plant-based diet is needed. Simultaneously, carbon dioxide removal of up to 100 to 1000 billion tons CO are required until the end of the century, equaling 2.5 to 25 times of the yearly CO emissions of c. 40 gigatons. One option to achieve this through natural means would be through carbon dioxide removal measures (CDR) in context of agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) like afforestation and moorland restoration, however in most modeled emission pathways of the IPCC this is considered insufficient. Additionally, carbon capture and storage would have to be used to cool down the earth after exceeding the 1.5-degree target. The world climate council itself mentions that it isn't confirmed that such measurements would work in large scale application.
  
  One prognosis published in 2023 certified that the 1.5-degree target would collapse between 2033 and 2035 even in positive scenarios. One report from the same year considers the compliance of the 1,5-degree goal and the decarbonization to 2050 as "no plausible".
  
  One case study on London published in 2023 suggests that the biggest contribution to reaching the 1.5-degree target in major cities consists of a drastic reduction in private transport. The scientists recommend a mix of measurements in form of neighborly carsharing, the restructuring of the street layout after a superblock model, comprehensive local supply based on a compact city model, the stop of big road construction projects as well as a dynamic toll for roads with considerably higher traffic jam or areas of high hazardous effect on health.
  
  The worldwide planned production volume of coal, oil and gas continuously exceeds the permissible dimensions needed for mitigation of the climate change. On basis of the undisputed correlation between CO emissions and the economic growth, growth-critical measurements in order to reduce the rate of economical growth are considered central to the adherence to the 1.5-degree and 2-degree targets. According to research by Jason Hickel for example, the growth targets of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would be opposing to these goals.
  
  Recent works indicate that the achievability of the 1.5-degree target through the retroactive withdrawal of CO emissions from the earth's atmosphere (overshoot scenario) had been overestimated within climate research because of irreversible effects. According to a survey by The Guardian only 5 percent of the surveyed climate scientists at the beginning of 2024 expected the achievability of the 1.5-degree target.