text: economies 4.4 6.2 5.9 221 403 508 USSRandEastern Europe 5.3 5.2 5.1 1131 2792 3887 China, Romania and Yugoslavia 4.9 5.7 5.6 93 261 394 LatinAmerica 4.6 5.9 5.6 535 929 1173 Africa 5.6 9.9 9.8 221 246 238 westAsia 3.9 7.2 6.7 368 976 1200 soutnandEastAsia 3.9 5.0 5.0 124 244 337 Petroleum-exporting 4.3 7.1 6.6 321 701 873 Petroleum-importing 4.4 5.6 5.4 199 332 419 ~Netmaterial product forplanned economies. /...A/40/519 English Page76 155.Whatismoststriking isthedeterioration oftheexpected outlook for developing economies. Inthe1962socio-economic perspective report, 5.6percent realgrowth wasprojected forthe'period 1960-2000. Using2.5percentasthebest estimate for1960-1965, thisimplies roughly 6.5percentgrowthfortheperiod 1965-2000. Thecurrent expectation isfarlower-about4.5percent. The deterioration inthisexpectation isalsotraceable tothefailure oftheUnited Statesrecovery tospreadwidely andtotheconsequences fordeveloping countries ofthemoreaustere policystances within DECDcountries. Italsohinges onthe failure.oftherealinterest ratetodecline withdecreasing inflation andonthe austerity imposed, externally orinternally, bymanydeveloping countries tomeet debtobligations and/ortoimprove deteriorating balance ofpayments. Finally, thesechanges alsoreflect long-term repercussions ofthewidespread faminein Africa. 156.Underthebaseline scenario, worldtradeisprojected togrowatarateof lessthan5.0percent,slowerthanthehistorical experience ofthe1960sbutmuch betterthanduringtheearly1980s. Because oftherelatively slowdomestic expansion ofdeveloped marketeconomies, theirimports areprojected toincrease moreslowly,ataround 4percent,incomparison toabout5to5.5percentinthe developing economies. However, export growthratesaremorenearlyequal, 4percentfordeveloped market economies and4.7percentfordeveloping market economies. 157.Thenominal tradedeficit fortheDECDcountries asawhole(goodsonly,not totalcurrent account) isestimated atabout$52billion for1964. The corresponding surplus ofthedeveloping countries isestimated at$45.8billion. According totheLINKforecast, thesearenotexpected tochangesignificantly by1990. AmongtheDECDcountries, theimportant projection isacontinued build-up oftheUnitedStatestradedeficit, tonearly $200billion, compensated by acontinued increase insurpluses fortheFederal Republic ofGermany andJapan, from$65billion to$120billion together. FOrtheoil-importing developing countries, collectively, thecurrent account balance ismoreimportant, onthe basisofpartial information, thecombined current account deficit ofthemajor oil-importing developing countries appears tobeabout$40billion in1984andis projected toincrease toroughly $60billion by1990. 158.Thebaseline assumes thatexchange rateswillaltertoequalize relative price inflation fortradeables after1990.Therefore, therealgrowthratesforexports andimports maybeapplied to1990exports andimports toindicate projected trade balances intheyear2000.Giventherelative importgrowthratesmentioned above, thecombined tradebalance oftheslower-growing developed countries improves to become asurplus bytheyear2000,whilethefaster-growing developing countries sliptoacombined deficit, evenmeasured bythegoodsbalance. Moredetail on (real)external balances isprovided inthecapital requirements analysis in paragraphs 169-176 below, wherethebaseline andhigher-growth scenarios are compared. 159.Projections oftheabsolute levelsofGDParealsoimportant. Forexample, although growthratesinEuropeareprojected torecover toabout3percentby
analysis: The text appears to be a macroeconomic analysis, discussing economic growth rates, trade balances, and projections for various regions and countries. It also touches on the impact of external factors such as oil prices, debt obligations, and austerity measures on developing economies. The text does not seem to focus on specific industries, natural resources, or humanitarian aid, but rather on the broader economic landscape.