text: transfers) peryear,whichisstillsignificantly largerthantheaverage annual deficit of$9.3billion during 1981-1984. Theexpected deficit onthisaccountis almostthesameasthemerchandise deficit ($33.2billion peryear). Duringthe period1985-1990 netinterest payments areprojected tobe$56.6billion peryear, substantially largerthantheannuallevelof$35.7·billion during 1981-1984, and appeartodominate theinvisible account deficit oftheseeconomies. Theincrease intheirexternal debtthrough postponement ofprincipal repayment combined with. theexpected accumulation ofcurrent accountdeficit, aswellastheirexpected reServe build-Up, seemtomorethanoffsetthefavourable effect fromthereduced shareofvariable rateshort-term commercial loansandimproved financial termson theoutstanding debt. Shouldinterest ratesdecline significantly inthefuture, however, thisdeficit wouldbemoderated. Netreceipts forotherservices and private transfers areexpected toremainstablethrough theendofthedecade. It isestimated tobe$17.2billion peryearontheaverage duringtheperiod 1985-1990, compared with$16.5billion peryearduringtheperiod1981-1984. Given themodestprospects fortheexportearnings oftheoilexporters, onemajor component oftheinvisible account, labourers' wages,islikelytocontinue its stagnation. 110.Thecurrent account balance oftheoil-exporting developing countries is projected tobeadeficit ofabout$18.2billion peryearontheaverage duringthe period 1985-1990 compared withanaverage surplus of$1.1billion during 1981-1984 (table19).Thisprojected deficitismainlyduetotheexpected sluggish growth inexportrevenues of5.9percentperyear(2.9percentinvolumeand 3.0percentinprice)during1985-1990. Itreflects theexpected moderation of global economic activity, thelikelycontinuation ofenergy-saving efforts, increase inoilsupply byotheroilproducers (oil-producing developed countries andotheroil-producing developing countries) aswellasexpected sluggish oil prices. Rapidinventory build-up byoil~consuming countries andthesignificant contributions ofthatbuild-Up totheoilexportrevenues arelesslikelyaslong asthestorage cost(interest rate)remains high. Theaverage annualexport revenue corresponding totheabovegrowthratewouldbe$245.2billion, asagainst I...A/40/519 English Page52 $233.6billion during1981-1984. Theaverage annualimportbillofthe oll-exporting developing countries isexpected tobeabout$192.6billion during 1985-1990 compared with$155.5billion duringtheperiod1981-1984. This corresponds toanincrease intheaverage annualrateofimportvalueof 9.6percent(5.7percentinvolumeand3.9percentinprice)duringtheperiod 1985-1990. Thegrowthrateofimportvolumewasfarbelowtherateof 14.8percentrecorded inthe1970s. Owingtothepayment constraints facedby theseeconomies, theirimports willcontinue toberestrained forsometimetocome (especially thelowabsorbers), although toalesserdegreethanintherecent past.Withtheirimportbillgrowing slightly fasterthantheirexportrevenue, theresulting average annualtradebalance wouldbe$52.6billion, asignificant decline fromthe$78.1billion during 1981-1984. withinvestment incomereceipts offsetting thesubdued outflow oflabourers' wages,theinvisible account balance ofthesecountries (excluding official transfers) isassumed toremainclosetothe average annuallevelof$70.8billion during1981-1984, resulting inacurrent accountdeficit of$18.2billion. 3.External debtanddebtservice Ill.Thecurrent account deficit ofnon-oil exporting developing countries is projected toaverage $62.5billion (including official transfers) peryearduring theperiod1985-1990. Allowing forareasonable build-up ofinternational. resources, theywillneednetflowsofexternal finance wellinexcessofthe principal repayment obligation ontheiralready existing debts. Assuming thatall oftheamortizations ontheirexternal debtsarerescheduled, thetotaloutstanding external debtofnon-oil exporting developing countries asawholewouldgrow 9.3percentperyearduringtheperiod 1985-1990 compared with13.0percentper yearduringtheperiod1979-1984. Thedebt-export ratioduring 1985-1990 would become187.3percentontheaverage, whichislargerthanthe111.1percent experienced in1979-1984 (table20). 112.Therecentconclusion ofmUlti-year rescheduling arrangements forMexico
analysis: The text appears to be discussing the economic situation of oil-exporting and non-oil exporting developing countries, specifically their current account balances, external debt, and debt service. It highlights the expected deficits in their current accounts, the growth of their external debt, and the debt-service burden. The text also touches on the impact of changes in interest rates and oil prices on their economies. Given the focus on economic indicators and financial metrics, it is likely that the text is related to economic development.