text: training component, whichfosters thedevelopment ofhumanresources. -5-II.THEWORLD ECONOMY ATTHEBEGINNING OFTHE1990511 30.Asweenterthe19905,theworldeconomy appears narrowly. to.haveavoided a . .buttheoutlook fordevelopment andtheallev~at~on ofworldmaJor recess~on, .poverty isnotparticularly encouraging. Areduction ~ntherateofgrowth began .1989ndappears likely tointensify in1990,butsomeacceleration ingrowth of1.n a ...d 1 . d foutputisexpected tobeginin1991. Theoutlook for 1.nd1.v~ uacountr1.es anor groups ofcountries is,however, rathervaried (seetab:e1).ManyEastern . European anddeveloping countries areexpected toexper~ence anabsolute decll.ne in output, andinothers theriseinoutputisexpected tobelessrapid t~anthe growth ofpopulation, sothatoutput perheadwillfall. South-East ASIan countries, ontheotherhand,appear tobeinaposition togrowmorerapidly than developed market economies. Theoutlook forthefirstfouryearsofthisnew decadeisfornoincrease inpercapita incomeinAfrica andarateofgrowth in LatinAmerica oflessthan1percentayear. 31.Givenacontinuation ofrestrictive monetary policies andtheexpected decline ingrowthratesthroughout muchoftheworld, bothdomestic demand andexports are expected todecelerate inmostdeveloped market economies in1990,particularly in NorthAmerica. IntheFederal Republic ofGermany, however, therateofgrowthis expected toaccelerate, stimulated byincreases inexports totheGerman Democratic Republic. Inthemedium term,growth intheEECisexpected toremain aboveits long-term trend,primarily because ofstrong import demand induced bythe completion oftheSingle Market in1992andbytheeconomic reforms underwayin Eastern Europe andtheUSSR. Moderate sustained growthisalsoexpected inJapan andinNorthAmerica. Despite this,unemployment, especially inEurope, is expected toremain aserious problem. 32.Theshort-term outlook isdominated bythefar-reaching changes underwayin Eastern Europe andtheUSSR. Theintegration oftheseeconomies intotheworld economy isexpected tobeaccompanied bysubstantial transitory adjustment costs, reflected indeclining outputorveryslowgrowth forthenexttwoorthreeyears, buttoleadtoaccelerating growth by1994. Thereis,ofcourse, considerable uncertainty regarding thisaspect ofthemedium-term outlook. Ontheonehand,the transitory adjustment costsmaybeevenhigher andspread overalonger period of time,suggesting alessencouraging prognosis andlessstimulus togrowth inother partsoftheworldeconomy. Ontheotherhand,external capital floWGandexports tothese ~ountries ~aybesignificantly increased compared totheassumptions in thebasel1.ne s~enar10. Although thiswouldhelptoaccelerate growth inEastern Europe, there 1.Sconcern thathigherinterest ratesandmorepressure on g~vernmenta1 budgets couldresultinareduction intheavailability ofexternal fInance fordeveloping countries. 33.Regarding worldtrade,themedium-term prospects areforamodest decline in therateofgrowth oftheVOlume ofexports in1990fromthehighlevels of1988 and1989. Nonethelessth ., eaverage rateofgrowth 1.5expected tobemorethan 5percentthrough 1994h'hIdb ., w ~cwou eh1gher thantheaverage rateofgrowth ofthe1970sor19805 This th.. d.' grow ~sexpected toresultfromcontinued strong growth 1.nemandfor~mports ofmanf t d. . uacuregoods. Prospects fornon-fuel primarycommod1t1es areexpected tobblk h. . eea,owever. Growth inexport volumes from pthr1.matryprodfuc~ng countries isexpected tobeslower thanthatofworldoutput, and eerms 0tradeofthesect'toremain depred'h o~nr1esareexpected tofallconsiderably in1990andsse1.nt emed1.um term.
analysis: The text primarily discusses the state of the world economy, global trade, and the outlook for economic growth and development in various regions. It also touches on the potential impact of economic reforms and changes in Eastern Europe and the USSR on the global economy. Given the focus on economic trends, growth rates, and trade, it appears that the category that best fits this text is related to economics.