text: 56. This has led to the sudden withdrawal of private bank lending which has been amajor element in lhe debt crises of the last fen years. After years of rapidexpansion. net lending by banks to developing countries has not grolrn at all since1982, if involuntary lending under ruF-sponsored reschealuling packages for majordebtors is excluded. rn countries without exchange control, an outflohr of capitaLhas often aggravated the situation. 57. Los-income countries have had to rery mostly on concessional borrowing, whichhas not been subject to this sharp decline. !.lcne the less, nany of thesecountriesr debt-service ratios are no!, as large as or larger chan correspondinqratios in the major debtor countries. 58. The present international debt probtem is a cloud that hangs heavily over theprospects of the eorld economy. A reduction in the threat that it poses depends 0nthe prospecls for (a) sustained recovery in the industrial countries and a furtherfall in real interest ratest (b) a rolt-back of protectionism in industrialcountriesi (c) a recovery in commodity markets, (d) a resumptj.on of voluntary banklendinq, and (e) continued adjustment programmes in debtor countries. Of all thesefacLors, only the last i.s under the contror of developing debtor countriesthemselves. 59' rnternati,onal effores have so far followed a case-by-case approach rn whichthe external environment has been taken as given. Adjustment programnes underrescheduling packages have consisted of policies that debtors were expected toadopt so that full debt servicj.ng was ensured in the prevailing externaLsituation. such measures have had a deflationary iopact on the uorLd economy. Theobriqation of crediLors has been limiled to rescheduling repayments and providing ner,, Loans. rn spite of multi-year rescheduling for three major debtors, the debtrestructuring exercises of the past three years have not led to a very significantdeferrar of amort.ization. About do per cent of the debt will fall due withi.n thenext five years. of particular concern is the large repayment of rMF advancesscheduled for the corning years, wbich vrill reach almost $g billion by lgg7. much ofit due fron African debEors.
analysis: The text discusses the international debt problem and its impact on the global economy. It highlights the sudden withdrawal of private bank lending, the reliance on concessional borrowing by low-income countries, and the need for sustained recovery in industrial countries, a roll-back of protectionism, and continued adjustment programs in debtor countries. The text does not mention natural resources, environment, agriculture, forestry, fishing, industry, transport, communication, health, education, employment, humanitarian aid, or culture.