text: developing countries is projected to increase at nearly twice the growth rate of deveLoped countries. The real output of developing countries is estimated to grow at an averaqe rate of 4 to 4.5 per cent a year. Though h'el-l beron the growth ratesof the 1.960s and 1970s, this level would be a considerable inprovement over the rat.es in lhe early ]980st however, it sould not restore. by 1990, the real incomeper capita enjoyed by nost deveLopi.ng counCries in 1980. 2I. These projections are necessariLy based on specific assumptions about lheevolution of world interest rates, prospects for net private bank lendinq to developing countries and Che grosth of private foreign investment, In sorneprojecti.ons a gradual decline in interest rate to about I per cent by the end ofthe decade is assumed, private foreign direct investment is estimated to resume itsA/ 40 /7 0a English Page 7 historical gror.rth rate of nearly II per cent a year and private bank lending is expeceed to grow by something between 4 and 7 per cent, The realism of Chese assumplions depends on political choices and macro-economic policies in key-curfency countries, on adjustment progranmes in debtor developing countries and on the posture of the private international financial sysEem. 22. In the early 1980s a combination of expansionist fiscal policy and restrictive nonetary policy in the UniCed states led to very large budget deficits, higher interest rates. and massive capital inf lor^'s, rdith a swing of over $100 billion in the united states current account between 1981 and 1984 (fron a surplus of $I1 billion to a deficit ot $93 billion). This swinq has become even more pronounced in 1985, when lhe deficit i.n the current account is expected to be over $I20 billion. This trend is lridely considered to be unsustainable. 23. The slon-donn in the growth of the United States economy could be conpensated
analysis: The text discusses economic growth rates and projections for developing countries, as well as the impact of macro-economic policies on interest rates and foreign investment. It also touches on the current account deficit in the United States and its potential sustainability. Given the focus on economic growth, development, and policy, it is likely that the text is related to economic development and international trade.