text: Department of International Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations secretariat. the annual rate of increase in real GDP tn Africa is projected at about 2,8 per cent. This baseline scenario also implies declining real per capita GDP in Africa ' though the decline is expected to diminish gradually by the end of the decade. This r{ill be accompanied by an i nvestment-savi ngs gap risinq from 3.9 per cent of cDP between 1985 and 1990 to 4.1 Per cent between 1990 and 1995' and finally to 4.4 per cent in the period 1995-2000. 360, In contrast, a detailedr pessimistic scenario for Africa froo 1983 to 2008 has been prepared by the Economlc comnisslon for Africa taca) under the aasumption that the recent socio-economic trends at the natlonal, regional and international leveLs vrould continue. Population was treated as exogenous and the trlgh variant of the population projections, with annual population qrotrth of 3.2 per.cent ln Africa, was used. Under this scenario, the number of unemployed in the formal wage labour markets i.n Africa h,ou Id rise from about 13 million erorkers tn 1983 to about 45 million in 2008. Rural under enployment , whlch was about 64 million sorkers or 40 per cent of the rural labour force in Africa in 1983, would rise to over 200 nillion' over ?O per cent, of the labour fgrce bY 2008. 361. This scenario, based on historical trends, also projects thaE almost 60 million tons of cereals per year {ould have to be imported by Africa in 2008 at a cost of $14 billion in l98O prices, compared rrith commercial loports of ? million tons in 1983 at a cost of $1.5 bill.ion. Oil lmporti Hould still represent over 50 per cent of total o11 consumption in oll-importing African countries. African
analysis: The text discusses economic trends and projections for Africa, including GDP growth, investment, savings, employment, and trade. It also touches on the impact of these trends on poverty and food security. Given the focus on economic indicators and their implications for African development, it is likely that the text belongs to the categories related to economic development and employment.