text: primary commodities and12.2percentformanufactures exports). Inviewofthe moderate increase inworlddemandforexports combined withexpected sluggish commodity prices, prospects forincreased exportrevenue ofcommodity exporters are notverybright. Exportearnings oflow-income developing countri~s inAfrica, in particular, willcontinue tobeaffected measurably bytheexpected mildness ofthe worldcommodity marketandsluggish anduncertain commodity pricesowing·to their heavy'dependence onnarrowlinesofexports ofnon-oi1 primary commodities. Exports ofmanufactures bynon-oil exporting developing countries, especially by thenewlyindustrializing countries inEastAsiaandlargedebtorcountries in LatinAmerica, havemadestrongprogress in1984,butthisrapidpaceofexport growthislesslikelytobesustained asthegrowthoftheunited'Stateseconomy is expected todecelerate inthenearterm.Facedwithintensified tradeimpediments andstiffcompetition inlabour-intensive goods,exporters ofmanufactures jn developing countries areexpected tocontinue theirexport-oriented development strategy andtorestructure theirindustries anddiversify theireconomies into morecapital- andtechnology-intensive andhighvalue-added industries. This movement willhavesignificant implications Ontheirmedium- andlong-term trade anddevelopment. 106.Therateofincrease intotalexportpricesunderlying thebaseline projections, viz.,anaverage annualrateof3.4percentduringtheperiod 1985-1990, reflecting agenerally subdued worldinflation rate,issubstantially lowerthantherateof11.4percentduringthe1970s. Pricesofnon-oil primary commodities andmanufactures areexpected toincrease atasignificantly reduced rateof3.3percentand4.1percentperyear,respectively, compared withthe corresponding ratesof12.4percentand10.7percentperyearduringthe1970s. Owingtothemoderate recovery ofaggregate demandindeveloped countries combined withtheirlowincomeelasticities, highstorage costs(highinterest rates), the existence oflargecommodity production capacities andintensified competition aeong ~mmodity exporters, theoverall priceincrease ofnon-oil primary COmmodities duringtherecentexpansion hasbeenrathermoderate andhasnotfully recovered thepricedecline suffered duringtherecentrecession. Asmostofthese basicunderlying conditions arenotlikelytochangeeasily, priceincreases for thosecommodities areexpected toremainmodestforthebalance ofthedecade. Priceincreases ofmanufactures exports ofdeveloping countries arealsolikelyto bemodest, aspressures frombothexternal demand.and domestic inputcostsare expected toremainmoderate. 107.Importbillsbythenon-oil exporting developing countries areexpected tobe about$423.3billion. peryearduringtheperiod1985-1990, corresponding tothe projected average annualrateofincrease of9.1percent(5.4percentinvolume and3.7percentinprice). Theprojected rateofgrowthoftheir.imports (5.4percent)islowerthanthe6.8percentrateduringthe1970s,reflecting the likelycontinuance ofexternal financial constraints ontheirimports andmoderate economic growthintheireconomies. Theprolonged compression ofimports, especially capital goodsimports, willadversely'affect theirmedium- andlong-term growthpotential. Inmanyoftheleastdeveloped economies inAfrica, severefood shortages created bytheprolonged drought necessitated increases infoodimports, I ...A/40/5l9 English Page51 whichislikelytoaddadditional strains ontheiralready tightfinancial constraints andfurther cutintotheiressential imports, whichinturnwillreduce theirability tomakeadjustments totheirexternal imbalances. Further, insome smaller debtorcountries, theexternal imbalances arestillsevereandneedswill continue toexistfortightimportrestraints. 108.WithvaluesofbOthexports andimports growing ataboutthesamerate (8.9percentand9.1percent,respectively), thetradedeficits ofthenon-oil exporting developing countries wouldaverage $33.2billion peryearforthebalance ofthedecade, compared withanannualaveragedeficit of$44..3billion during 1981-1984 (table19).Theimprovement intheirtradebalance in1984wasmainly duetoexportgrowthratherthanimportrestraint andthistendency islikelyto continue. 109.Reflecting theexpected increase ininterest payments ontheincreasing external indebtedness .andexpected stagnation inlabourers' wages,theinvisible account deficit ofnon-oil exporting developing countries duringtheperiod 1985-1990 isexpected tobe$29.3billion ($39.4billion excluding official
analysis: The text discusses the prospects of export revenue for commodity exporters, particularly low-income developing countries, and the implications of this on their trade balances and external debt. It also touches on the expected growth of imports, the impact of external financial constraints, and the invisible account deficit. The text appears to be focused on the economic development of these countries, particularly in the context of international trade.