text: 12 per cent reat growth ln the next five years to offsec the Poor results frotn the first half of tbe decade. Neuertheless, there is an inportant positive aspect of thi€ conclusion in thab significant proqres6 ls feasible and that tbe Strateqy target rate could be net before the end of Che century. 145. Fron these conclusions, it also becomes apParent thab achieving the tarqet grosth rates of ttre Strategy reouiree a supporEive sorld econolny and international econonic system. The first PrereauisiEe is a stable eeolution of the $orld economy, as noted above. If projecting stabllity 16 eesentially t'i6hful thinkinq the real prerequisite is a greater degree of international co-operalion and even Co-ordlnated crisiE nanagernent. Second, the attai'ment of gronth rates as bigh aE ? per cenc or nore necessarlly imPlies conlinuing conflict between the growth aspirations of developing econonies, on che one hand, and extetnal (or internalized) pressures to avold inflation and excesSlve ba lance-of-Paynents deficits on the other. whlle the scenario indicates that it is feagible to finance the projected capital requirenents fron donestic resources, together with oDA and olher private capital flows, it also indicates that the balance is very tight' Performance iF likely to falter if ODA i8 not forthconlng or if, private capltal fl.oos cease a! eacb short-run crlsis. Given the teneions necessary to spur developruent at this rate, crises are almost inevitable in some ca8es.A/40/3L9 Englisb Page 72 B. Baseline scenario
analysis: The text appears to be discussing the prospects for economic growth and development, highlighting the challenges and requirements for achieving high growth rates. It also touches on the need for international cooperation and coordination to manage crises. The focus on capital requirements, balance of payments deficits, and the tension between growth aspirations and inflation control suggests that the topic is primarily economic in nature.