text: considered the"equilibrium rate". I."A/40/519 English Page37 Table13.percentage changes inthevalueofthedollar intermsofSDRs!I SDRper USdollar Index (endofperiod) (1972=100) 1972 0.92105 100.0 1973 0.82895 90.0 1974 0.81676 88.7 1975 0.85422 92.7 1976 0.86071 93.4 1977 0.82324 8!l.4 1978 0.76758 83.3 1979 0.75911 82.4 1980 0.78406 85.1 1981 0.85914 93.3 1982 0.90653 98.4 1983 0.95515 103.7 1984 1.02020 110.8 1985(January) 1.02564 111.4Annual Percentage change -10.0 -1.4 +4.5 +0.8 -4.3 -6.8 -1.1 +3.3 +9.6 +5.5 +5.4 +6.8 +6.5!o/ Source: Datacontained inIMF,International Financial Statistics, various issues. !IAnnualrate. /...A/40/5l9 English Page38 C.Thenear-andmedium-term economic outlook 87.UsingtheLINKsystem, abaseline scenario hasbeenprojected forthebalance ofthedecade, basedontheassumption ofa"no-change" inexisting orexpected governmental policies (monetary, fiscal, trade,aid).Theseprojections are compared withthoseofothersources, namelyFugi,IMFandtheWorldBank,in table14.Theunderlying assumptions ofthebaseline scenario fromthesesources differsomewhat fromsourcetosourcel theyaredetailed intheannextothe present section. Table14.Comparison ofprojections: GDPgrowthratesinthe1980s (Average annualpercentage change) WOrld(excluding Developed Eastern centrally planned market Developing Europe Periodanditem World economies) economies countries andUSSRChina 1981-1985y 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 3.3 8.2 1986-1990 LINK:Baseline£I3.5 3.4£/ 2.9£/ 4.4 3.2 6.3 Fugi:Baseline 3.7 3.5 3.3 4.1 4.2 6.1 IMF:Central scenario d/ 3.5£/ 3.25 4.6!/... WorldBank!!!iF Low ... 2.9£/ 2.5 4.7... High 4.5£/ 4.3 5.5...... Source: Department ofInternational Economic andSocialAffairs oftheunited Nations Secretariat, basedonprojections fromvarious sources. yReferstothefiveyears1981-1985. Datafor1985represents projections. £ITheLINKprojections arethoseofApril1985. £IWeighted averages calculated bytheDepartment ofInternational Economic andSocialAffairs. !!!Fordefinitions ofthehighandlowcasesoftheWOrldBankandtheIMF central scenario, seeannextothepresent section. !IFornon-oil exporting developing marketeconomies. !IRefertotheperiod1985-1996. /...A/40/519 English page39 1.Grossdomestic product anditscomponents 88.AworldGDPgrowthrateof3.0to3.7percentperyearisprojected forthe secondhalfofthedecade, compared withthemeagregrowthof2.6percentperyear inthefirsthalf.Thishasbeenmadepossible bytheeconomic recovery inthe majorindustrial countries andthecentrally planned economies since1983. Sofar asthedeveloping countries areconcerned, the.baseline scenario indicates an average of4.3percentperyearinGDPgrowthforthesecondhalfofthe1980s, compared withthedismalperformance ofonly1.5percentforthefirsthalf.The LINKbaseline projections forecast a"growth recession" in1986,whentheaverage OECDgrowthrateofrealGDPwouldfallfrom2.7percentin1985to2.4percent in1986asaresultofinventory stockadjustment prOcesses, duetoinventory stock-building, followed bystockdecumulation. Apartfromtheexpected "growth recession" oftheOECDeconomies in1986,whichwillhaverepercussions onthe developing economies, thegrowthratesofworldGDPwillreverttothegrowthpath of3.6percentayearuntiltheendofthedecade(table15). 89.Inlinewithgrowthineconomic activity, arecovery ofgrowthinworldtrade isalsoforecast. TheLINKprojections indicate agrowthinworldexport volumeof 6.9percentin1985,ontopofanestimated growthrateof8.5percentin1984 (table15).Forthebalance ofthedecade, worldexportgrowth(involume)is projected toaverage 4.7percentperyear.Iftheseprojections arerealized, the elasticity ofworldtradetoworldproduct fortheyears1985-1990 wouldattainthe figureof1.34,whichisalmostthesameasthehistorical average fortheperiod 1965-1983. Theprojections ofgrowthinthevolumeofworldexports depend, among
analysis: This text appears to be focused on macroeconomic issues, discussing GDP growth rates, trade, and economic projections for the world and specific regions. The text also touches on the impact of government policies and the performance of different economies.