text: g./ The figure for each country group is an average weighceal by thepopulation of each country in the group, in the year for i.'hich the eipenditure wasrecorded.A/40/5l9 English Page113 1.Enrolment projections 248.Giventheobserved relations between education costsandspending and percapita incomelevels, improvements inenrolment ratesthatcanbeexpected in thedeveloping countries duringthe1980sand1990swilldependinpartontheir economic growth. Table40showsprojections oftheenrolment rateforchildren underthelowerandhigher growthscenarios fortheyears1990and2000. The projections arebasedonacross-country statistical analysis oftherelationships between percapita income, percapitaexpenditure oftprimary education and perstudent expenditure onprimary education in66developing countries inthe firsthalfofthe1970s.2[1Theanalysis indicates thatpercapitaspending on primary education tendstoincrease alittle moreauickly thandoespercapita GDP, whileperstudent spending increases aboutatarate70percentthatofpercapita GDP,atleastuptoanaverage percapita incomelevelof$3,000 (in1975United Statesdollars). 249.Theevolution ofspending andenrolment inanyparticular country mayvary greatly fromthetypical pathimplied bytheserelationships. Thelevelsof spending percapita andperstudent onprimary education, mostofwhichis government spending, areverymuchSUbject togovernment policydecisions. Someof thedeveloping countries withrelatively highratesofenrolment andliteracy have hadrelatively rapidincreases intheserateswithin adecadeorso,atsometime inthepastwhentheymadeamajorcommitment toimprove theireducation systems, particularly attheprimary level. 250.Thustheratesofimprovement forthedifferent groupsofcountries in table40should beconsidered onlyasaverage ratesforeachgroup,indicating improvements thatcouldreasonably beexpected inacountry whosepercapita income growsattheaverage rateprojected forthatgroupundertherelevant economic growthscenario. However, considerably greater improvement wouldbepossible if thecountry chosetoincrease itstotalspending morequickly andlortolimitmore stringently theincrease inspending orcostperstudent, subject tospending enoughperstudent toprovide training inbasicliteracy. 251.Giventheforegoing qualifications, table40showsthattheenrolment ratefor boysaged6to11inthedeveloping market economies willincrease from75percent in1980toonlyabout77percentin1990andto81percentintheyear2000under thelower-growth scenario. Similarly, theenrolment rateforgirlswillincrease from59percentin1980toonlyabout62percentin1990and67percentinthe year2000. 252.Theoutlook forenrolment ofgirlsinthelow-income countries andfor enrolment ofbothgirlsandboysintheleastdeveloped countries isespecially bleakunderthelower-growth scenario. Theenrolment ofgirlsaged6to11inthe low-income groupwouldincrease from46percentin1980toonly49percentin 1990and55percentintheyear2000.Intheleastdeveloped groupitwould increase hardlyatall,from31.4percentin1980to32.5percentinthe year2000,whiletheenrolment ofboyswouldincrease from50.7toonly 51.1percent. I..A/40 /5L9 Eng 1i sh Page 114 Table 40. School enrolment rates for children aged 6 to ll-projected to 1990 and 2O0O under the lower-qrowth and the higber-growth scena r ios Developing ma r ket economles 1980Lot{er-qroweh 199 02000Higher-qrowth 1990 2000 Oi1-exporting MaIes Fema les OiI-importi ng Upper -i ncome Males Fema les Low-income Ma les Females Least developed Ma les Fema les Total, oil-imF,orting M6Ies Fema les Total, oil-exporting and oi l-lmpor ting Ma les Feflla.les86.2 87.8 79. I88. e 8r.989.8 82.4 86. 3 84.r 7L.4s0.l 50 .7 31. 7 7s .1 )u.5 78.1 63.5o.> ', 87.8 96 .7 98.1 80 .1 61.1 55 .4 37.8
analysis: The text discusses the relationship between economic growth, education costs, and enrollment rates in developing countries. It presents projections of enrollment rates for different country groups under different economic growth scenarios. The text highlights the importance of government policy decisions in determining education spending and enrollment rates, and notes that even with economic growth, some countries may not make sufficient progress in improving education.