text: the year 2000. The general world recovery in tbe hlgher-gronth scenario nould stimulate energy use, thus firming or gradually raising oil prtces and making the I.5 per cent rate attainable. 178. t'Iot only does rrorld trad€ grow fagter, but real balances on gooals and services for the dlevelopeal Countries also improve. cOmparlng the basellne scena(lo to the higher-growth scenario. This reflects the fact that the faster groeth in the developing countries requires considerable nee investoent andr thereforet additionat manufactured imports, Ilovrever this implieE thab net foreign Private sector assets for tbe developed countrles taken as a qroup are projected to increage by very large amounts, culminating in a $60 billton increnent per year in real terms. Further, the combineal external balance of the oil-exporting countries in the year 2000 is over $10 billlon npre in the higher-gror,ttb scenario. lfherefore, it is not unreasonable to supPose that a slgnificant share of these incremental assets uould be channeLed into the nore dynamic part of the world, naftely the developing countries. i{hile a guantitatlve estimate would be a sheer guess, a sufficient amount to cover the rerobining $I2 billion (tbe $135 billlon external balance, minus the $I04 btlllon increase ln oDA and minus the $19 bilLion increase in OPEC assistance) ls certalnly reasonable. t?9. A third possibil.ity is that renerred grorrth on a slgnificant scale nould significantly improve the terms of trade of the developinq countrles as a group'A/40/5L9 Engli sb Paqe 87
analysis: The text appears to be discussing the economic implications of a higher-growth scenario in the year 2000, including the potential for increased energy use, trade growth, and foreign investment. It also mentions the improvement in real balances on goods and services for developing countries, as well as the possibility of significant foreign private sector assets being channeled into these countries. Given the focus on economic growth, trade, and foreign investment, it seems likely that the text is related to macroeconomic issues.