text: SOurce. Department ofInternational Economic andSOcialAffairs oftheunited Nations Secretariat. !o/rates.Growthofgrossdomestic product measured in1975prices andexchange E/Doesnotinclude Chinabecause dataarenotavailable forthet960sand early1970s. £/ Decade.Minimum rateofeconomic growthattheendofthefirstDevelopment 2.Structural changeanddevelopment 10.Beginning especially inthesecondDevelopment Decade, increasing attention hasbeengiventointernational development targets otherthanoverall real economic growth. Derived fromthedesiretomodernize anddiversify theproduction structure ofdeveloping economies, quantitative objectives havebeensetfor production andforthemobilization ofresources forcapital formation. In addition, anaccelerated expansion ofinternational tradehasbeencitedasa prerequisite forbalanced economic growth. Thesegoalsreflect widelyshared concerns abouttheprogress ofstructural change andeconomic development as contrasted tosheereconomic growth. 11.Duringtheperiod1965-1980 thecomposite rateofgrowthofmanufacturing outputforalldeveloping countries, whilenotapproaching the8to9percent indicated intheInternational Development Strategies, wasconsiderably abovethat forgrossdomestic product (GDP)asawhole. However, inmostofthelow-income developing countries theshareofmanufacturing inGDPchangedlittle. Theshare I ...A/40/519 English page8 ofcapital formation inGDPinallgroupsofdeveloping countries, withthe exception oftheleastdeveloped, rosefrom1960to1980tolevelsprevailing in economically advanced countries (seetable2).However, thequickening paceof capital formation wasbrought nearlytoastandstill inthe1980sowingtohigh interest ratesandtighter monetary conditions globally, debtcrisesandlower foreign investment andaid,andtheadverse impactofhigheroilpricesandthe globalrecession. Someofthosefactors arealsoresponsible forthedecline in absolute termsinworldtradeforanunusually longperiod from1981to1983and, consequently, therisinglevelsofprotectionism thatmaychokeofftheexports of precisely thosemanufactures thathaveenabled muchofthestructural changeinthe past. Table2.Shareofcapital formation ingrossdomestic product, 1960-1983!I (Percentage) Economies Developed marketeconomies Developing countries Leastdeveloped economies1960 21.2 18.9 9.81970 23.0 20.4 11.11980 J2.5 24.2 14.91983 20.8 23.3 15.1 Source: Department ofInternational Economic andSocialAffairs oftheUnited Nations Secretariat. !IMeasured incurrent pricesandexchange rates. 12.Therefore, thestructural development issueofthemomentisnotasmuch related totheinternal dynamics ofstructural changeastotheexternal feasibility, whether ornotasupportive international tradesystemandareliable international financial systempermitareturntolevelsofinvestment andcapital formation necessary forsustained realgrowthandpe~elopment. B.Worldeconomic prospects forthe1980sand1990s 1.Baseline projections 13.Fordeveloped marketeconomies, theeconomic £ecovery wasledmainly bythe UnitedStatesofAmerica andhasspreadwidely, thoughunevenly, bynow. Medium-term growthratesareprojected at2.9percentfortheperiod1985-1990, long-term ratesprojected forthe1990sareatabout3percentperannum (seetable3).Theseestimates resultmainly fromtheexpectation thatmonetary I...A/40/519 English page9 andfiscalpolicies willremaincautious fortheforseeable future. Theregaining ofgrowthratesofabout3percentislikely, butthereislittleevidence supporting thereturnofgrowthratesof4percentorhigherforcountries ofthe Organisation ofEconomic CO-operation forDevelopment (OECD). Asaconsequence, andbecause persistent labourmarketrigidities produce upwardpressure onreal wageseveninthefaceofcontinuing highunemployment rates, employment is projected toremainlowandunemployment rateshigh(butnotincreasing) through theyear2000,particularly inwestern Europe. Short-term interest ratesunderthe baseline projections areexpected toincrease moderately duringthenextfewyears andthendecline slowly, soslowlythatinterest ratesnotlessthan7percentare projected fortheyear2000.Sinceinflation inOECDcountries isprojected to remainstableatabout4percent,short-term realratesinexcessof3or 4percentareprojected fortheforeseeable future. Table3.Realworldoutput. annualgrowthratesofGDP (percentage change fromprevious year) Baseline projections 1976- Average Average
analysis: The text discusses economic growth, development, and structural change, focusing on the role of international trade, capital formation, and investment. It also touches on the impact of external factors such as high interest rates, debt crises, and oil prices on economic development. The text seems to be primarily concerned with the macroeconomic aspects of development, rather than specific sectors or areas.