text: lower-gro$lh scenario in rrhich the recovery proiected in the baseline is incomplete and the gronch rates exPerienced during the period 1974-1985 Prevail through the year 2000. A€ the baseline projections lmplicitly assune conslderable background ;tability and as the period 1974-1985 !'aB characterlzed try considerable inslability, the lot er-growth Ecenario rnay be regarded as a test of the sensitivity of the baseline scenarlo. The loater-growth scenario is significantly nore pesslmistic than the baseline: real grorrth rates of 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent are the norm. ComParison of these tuo gcenarios suggests tbat steps 'to insure Che stability of Ehe norld economy nould not only support development efforts but also help prevent countries fron entering long periods of such poor performance as to constitute hunan tragedy. 144. Sub-section I! lparas. 164-183t presents an alternative, higher-groeth scenario in which lnvestment effort and capital effectiveness in developing countries gradually move in the direction of the targets of the Strategy for tbe Third Develognent Decade. The purpose is to exanine the feasibillty of th€ higher-grolrth scenario by exPlorinq the capital resuirements inplied by the GE model and the differences beteeen this scenario and the baselln€ scenarlo. The general conclusion that ernerges is tbs! ? per cene real growth for developing countries. Eaken as a wbole, is achievable, but not until the decade of the 1990s' The negative component of this conclusion cornes fron comparlnq even the oPtinistic scenario Eo the Strategy target groeth rate, ? per cent for the decade of 198l-1990 as a uhole. Applied to the entlre decade ($hlch is Eo say, requirlng tbat poor performances be lralanced by grottth rates above ? per cent), this target may eeII have been more of a reflection of necesaity cban feasibility. fn any case, tbe original target is nolt clearly unattainable since it would reouire nearly
analysis: The text appears to be discussing economic growth and development, particularly in the context of developing countries. It mentions "recovery", "growth rates", "investment effort", and "capital effectiveness", which suggests a focus on economic development and growth. Additionally, the text references the "Strategy for the Third Development Decade", which further supports the hypothesis that the text is related to economic development.