text: slnce denand for primary comnodieies is likely to increase more rapidly thansupply. For all developing countries, including oll exporters, total real exportsby the year 2000 are projected !o be about $946 billion and imports sbout$1,002 billion. If export prices r,rere to increase by l per cent and inport pricesto fall by I per cent, assuning the real flows to be unchanged, the financingrequirenent would be reduced by rnore than gl9 blllion. Of courae, this calculationis only indicative of the orders of magnitude invol"ed, slnce real flous wouldreduce the financing reguirement Less than $19 billion, but a 2 per cent change inthe term6 of trade, over a period of 15 years, is none the lese very nodest. 4. Viability of hlgher groirth 180. The overall conclusion, fron analysis of the higher-growth scenario, is thatachievenent of the strategy tsarget of 7 per cent real growth in the developingecononies over the 1980s is probabry not possible, but reaching tbese growch ratesduring the 1990s is feasibte, on boch physical and financial grounds. 181. A maJor concern on tbe physical side is that ICORS will not decreasesufficiently or will d€crease too slouly. In fact, the seening overaLldeterioration in perfonnance in the deeeloping countlies from ehe I96Os through the1980s was caused not by poor savings performance, but ratber by a loss ofeffectiveness in che utilization of lnvestnent. rn large part thls may refrectfailure to adeguately transnit modern technology o! rapproprlace" technology inadne circumscances, or fairure to upgrade the suaLlty of the labour force, rather Ehan faiLure to enphasize more capital lntensive production techniques. (Ttreinportance of technology transfer and nanpower developnent is aliscussed inSectlon fII above.) However, it also reflects the external econoniC environment ofthe developing countries, especlally high international interest rates anddecreasing terms of trade. 182. There are tno major concerns on the financial siate. First, eirl oDAcontnitnents lncrease relalive to cDp nhen covernnents ln oEcD countrles are Preotcupied with reducing the scale of government and are beset by serioua dornestic
analysis: The text discusses economic development, specifically the growth rates and financing requirements of developing countries. It touches on the importance of technology transfer, investment, and labor force quality, as well as the impact of external factors such as international interest rates and terms of trade. The text also mentions the need for adequate financing and the possibility of achieving higher growth rates in the 1990s.