text: annual GDP growth rates for the developed and developing countries, respecllvely)(see table 24, scenario I). The LINK slmulationg further indicate that lhe volumeof ttorld trade hrou ld increase by 0.5 percentage points above the baselineprojections for the period 1985-1990. In this scenario the OECD countries, on average' reduce thei.r trade bal-ances because many of them have strong propensitiesto import. The developing countries and, in particular, the opEc countries appearto be beneficiaries in terms of trade balance. The centrally planned ebonomiesalso participate in trade gains. This scenario further shows that in theindustrial countries there are principal galns in labour markets in North Aoerica,with a small gain in i{estern Europ€. fn this simulation inflation rates are downin OECD countries at firsC and rise slightly in later years of this decade. 2- Trade liberal.ization in OECD countrieg I24. The formulation of this scenario differs betrreen project LfNK and the Fugil4odel. Project LfNK assumes a reduction of trade barriers by OECD countries ontheir lmports from the developing countries to the extent of 5 per cent startingfrom 1985. ?he Fugi Model assumes that the North will increase its imports fromthe oil-importing developing countries by 5 per cent a year above the baselineprojectibns, and that south-south lrade vritl- increase by l0 per cent a year abovethe baseline projections during the period 1985-1990. Bhe t'ugi simulationslndicate a slight negative influence on the cDp grolrth rate of Che developedcountrias (-0.01 percentage points), but a positive growth rate of O.Z2 percenEagepoints above the baseline projections for the aleveloping countries (table 22).Results of the LINK simulationB (see tables 24 and 25,t show that 5 per cent tradeliberarization wirl raise the estimated vorume of iaior ld trade by 2 to 3 per cent(to be more precise, 0.5 percentage points for 1985-1990 above the baseline growthrate). GDP growth rates boch in the oBCD countries and in the aleveloping countriesare estimated to go up by 0.1 percentage points in 1985-1990. unemployment ratesin Ehe oEcD countries (rourd be loqer, a6 a conseguence of the higher pioductionlevels. The inflation effects are small.^/40/3I9English Page 63
analysis: The text primarily discusses economic growth rates, trade liberalization, and its effects on GDP, trade balances, and employment. It does not mention natural resources, environment, agriculture, forestry, fishing, health, education, humanitarian aid, culture, or science and technology. The focus on international trade, economic development, and employment suggests that the category should be related to economic activities.