A method to predict whether a particular fungus will be observed by a scout checking on a particular crop at a particular location on a particular date. The method using a set of previous scouting reports and weather information for the particular location, including weather information for a period of time before the particular date.
Please help me write a proper abstract based on the patent claims. CLAIM: 1. A method to predict whether a particular fungus will be observed by a scout checking on a particular crop, at a particular location; the method comprising: A) obtaining a set of scouting reports containing information on whether the particular fungus was observed in a sample of the particular crop on a specific date and specific location; the set of scouting reports containing observations taken over a growing season for the particular crop; the set of scouting reports containing observations from more than one location; and the set of scouting reports containing some observations that the particular fungus was found on the particular crop and some observations that the particular fungus was not found on the particular crop; B) obtaining weather information leading up the to the specific date for each of the scouting reports for the particular locations for a set of growing seasons for the particular crop such that weather information exists for the growing seasons corresponding to the set of scouting reports to be relied upon for creating a model; C) obtaining a model framework to model growth of the particular fungus for the particular crop; D) selecting a parameter optimization technique to determine an optimal set of model coefficients for the model framework for the particular fungus and particular crop; E) selecting a set of parameters for the model framework that will be allowed to vary within the parameter optimization technique; F) providing initial values for at least some parameters to a program running the parameter optimization technique; G) providing data from the scouting reports to the program running the parameter optimization technique, the data including observations where the particular fungus was observed and including observations where the particular fungus was not observed; H) providing the weather information for at least the locations corresponding to the scouting reports provided to the program running the parameter optimization technique for a set of growing periods relevant to the scouting reports provided to the program running the parameter optimization program; I) using the program running the parameter optimization technique to obtain a set of values for the selected set of parameters for the model framework such that the model may be used to provide a predictive score on whether the particular fungus will be observed on the particular crop at a particular location after a particular sequence of weather conditions at that particular location; J) obtaining weather information for a period of time for a set of particular locations and provide a set of predictive scores of whether on a particular date, the particular fungus may be observed on the particular crops at locations within the set of particular locations; and K) providing access to the predictive scores so that scouts are dispatched to locations with predictive scores above a threshold value to check for the particular fungus on the particular crop. 2. The method of claim 1 wherein the scouting reports contain observations from at least two different years. 3. The method of claim 1 wherein the parameter optimization technique is simulated annealing. 4. The method of claim 1 wherein the step of obtaining weather for the period of time to provide a set of predictive scores of whether on a particular date, the particular fungus may be observed on the particular crop at locations within the set of particular locations includes weather data for weather that has already occurred before the particular date. 5. The method of claim 1 wherein the step of obtaining weather for the period of time to provide a set of predictive scores of whether on the particular date, the particular fungus may be observed on the particular crop at locations within the set of particular locations includes weather data that is predicted for a time period between a current date and the particular date. 6. The method of claim 1 wherein the step of obtaining weather information leading up the to the specific date for each of the scouting reports for the particular location for a set of growing seasons for the particular crop, obtains hourly weather information. 7. The method of claim 1 wherein the step of obtaining weather information leading up the to the specific date for each of the scouting reports for the particular location for a set of growing seasons for the particular crop, obtains weather information representative of a high temperature and a low temperature experienced at the particular location on the specific date. 8. The method of claim 1 wherein the model is tested and refined by dispatching scouts to visit locations with predictive scores below a threshold value to check for the particular fungus on the particular crop in order to find false negatives. 9. The method of claim 1 wherein weather information is assumed to apply to all crops within a particular range of longitude and latitude values. 10. The method of claim 1 wherein a first set of model coefficients are selected for a first model using a first leaf wetness model and a second set of model coefficients are selected for a second model using a second leaf wetness model and then selecting either the first set of model coefficients for the first model using the first leaf wetness model or the second set of model coefficients for the second model using the second leaf wetness model based on an ability to predict whether the particular fungus was observed by a scout checking on a particular crop in scouting reports not used for determining the first set of model coefficients or the second set of model coefficients. 11. The method of claim 1 wherein a TDV value is obtained to indicate a breakpoint between whether it is likely or not likely that a scout will observe the particular fungus on the particular crop, at the particular location, on the particular date. 12. The method of claim 11 wherein the TDV value is obtained using Receiver Operating Characteristic metrics. 13. The method of claim 11 wherein the TDV value is adjusted during a growing season as scouting reports find false negative indications from scouting reports taken at field locations deemed to be not likely to have the particular fungus on the particular crop, at a particular location, on the particular date.