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Please predict whether this patent is acceptable.PATENT ABSTRACT: An associated event group preparation unit calculates a degree of association between the events on the basis of an event matrix, and prepares an associated event group for each event. A cause-and-effect relationship model establishment unit establishes a probabilistic cause-and-effect relationship model by a Bayesian network on the basis of the event matrix, for each associated event group. An improvement candidate pattern receiving unit receives a setting of an improvement candidate pattern in which a condition of an event to be set as an improvement candidate is determined by attributes of the base point event and the associated event and a conditional probability between the base point event and the associated event. A pattern analysis unit extracts a probabilistic cause-and-effect relationship model conforming to any one of the set improvement candidate patterns, from the established probabilistic cause-and-effect relationship models for each event.