ZINC CONCENTRATE SUPPLY SHORTFALL SEEN IN 1988
Next year is likely to see a shortfall
in zinc concentrates of up to 100,000 tonnes, although there
should be ample supply in 1987, Shearson Lehman Brothers Ltd
metals analyst Stephen Briggs said.
    Speaking on the second day of Metal Bulletin's base metals
conference, Briggs said the major factor in his predicted
100,000 tonne shortfall in zinc concentrate supply in 1988 was
the imminent cessation of new mining and termination of milling
at Pine Point in Canada.
    However, this could be partially offset by some stockpiles.
    Nevertheless, despite this predicted shortfall there was
unlikely to be any dramatic change in treatment charges in
1988. The picture for 1987, on the other hand, was one of
record production of zinc metal with fewer strikes anticipated
in Canada, some improvement in South America and new capacity
in South Korea.
    "Dramatic new record levels of concentrate output are also
expected in 1987," Briggs said.
    This would partly be due to a return to more normal levels
at existing mines in Australia and Peru, allied with
achievement of full capacity of 170,000 tonnes a year at Faro
in Canada.
    Looking further forward, the major event was the probable
opening in 1991 of the Red Dog mine in Alaska with a capacity
of 300,000 tonnes of concentrates a year.
    "Once this mine is fully on stream it is unlikely that there
will be a major shortage of concentrates in the early 1990s," he
added.
    The picture for lead was also closely allied to that of
zinc, with no new dedicated lead mines planned and therefore
supply of concentrates largely dependent on by-products from
zinc mines.
    "On this basis, our calculations point to a modest
oversupply of lead concentrates in 1987," Briggs said.
    The copper forecast, however, was for a record
non-Socialist output of 6.6 mln tonnes of concentrates in 1987,
increasing by a further 150,000 tonnes in 1988.
    Production of primary refined copper metal would also
increase, but not by as much as concentrate output, leading to
a moderate oversupply of concentrates of up to 150,000 tonnes
this year and with no shortages predicted for the rest of the
decade, he said.
 REUTER
