FRENCH SAY WHEAT STOCKS FORECAST NO SURPRISE
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's
forecast that French end-of-season soft wheat stocks will
almost double in 1987/88 is premature but would not be
surprising, according to French cereal organisation officials.
    The Cereals Intervention Board, ONIC, Wheat Producers'
Association and the National Union of Agricultural and Cereal
Cooperatives have not yet forecast 1987/88 exports or
end-of-season stocks.
    However, the officials said the USDA's figure of end
1987/88 stocks at 5.03 mln tonnes against 1986/87's 2.87 mln
was not surprising given a record high yield forecast in April.
    The French Feed Cereals Research Institute, ITCF, forecast
in mid-April an average yield of 6.58 tonnes per hectare for
soft wheat in 1987/88 compared with 5.6 tonnes in 1986/87 and
the record high yield of 6.5/6.6 tonnes in 1984.
    This would result in a French soft wheat harvest of around
31 mln tonnes against 25.5 mln in 1986/87, given a Ministry of
Agriculture estimate of area planted of 4.66 mln hectares
against 4.61 mln in 1986/87.
    ONIC's first preliminary forecast of the 1987/88 campaign
will be released at the beginning of September, an ONIC
official said.
    Soft wheat exports in 1987/88 were extremely difficult to
estimate at this stage, both within the European Community and
to non-EC countries, an ONIC official said.
    He said, however, that among countries to which France
could increase its wheat exports were Egypt and the Maghreb
countries (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia), he said.
    The USDA's forecast of an 11.65 mln tonne maize crop in
1987/88 against 11.48 mln in 1986/87, while again premature,
was not out of line with estimates of the French Maize
Producers Association, AGPM, an AGPM official said.
    Maize plantings would be down in 1987/88 but yields were
expected to be higher, the AGPM official said.
    It estimated 1987/88 maize plantings of 1.73 mln hectares,
down seven pct from the 1.87 mln hectares planted in 1986/87.
 Reuter
