📈🏆#MLBMA Fantasy Baseball 2025 on Substack

#6. Gunnar Henderson, BAL, 3B — (719 PA; .281 BA, 118 R, 92 RBI, 37 HR, 21 SB)

23-year-old former uber-prospect Gunnar Henderson lived up to all the hype, continuing his breakout toward super-stardom in his second full season as the Orioles’ leadoff man. Already a five-category fantasy contributor, his career 600PA pace (.278 BA, 94 R, 78 RBI, 28 HR, 13 SB) lays a perfectly balanced foundation to build off of. 

And Henderson’s showing no sign of degrading if the improvements to his approach are any indication. Last year Gunnar cut down on both swinging strikes (9.8%) and chases (26.2%) while improving his zone-contact (85.8%) & hard-hit rates (53.9%). Nothing like a positive exchange of skills to encourage projectable growth. 

All things fantasy GMs love to see, especially from such a young hitter. So let’s get into his chances of paying off such a high-premium draft cost.
I love what we’ve seen so far but sorry to the Oriole faithful, I have my concerns. Gunnar’s a baller, there’s no doubt… but we’re talking about a top-5 pick here.

Feels fair to assume the counting stats (R+RBI) are safe — Baltimore’s offense projects among the best in the league, returning all key pieces except Anthony Santander (though they did add Tyler O’Neill).

After hitting .256 entering 2024, Gunnar bats a career-high .281 on a .320 BABIP... not bad. However, the combination of high groundball (46.7%) & low pull (39.2%) rates gives me pause on both a repeat in BA & HRs for that matter. Gunnar converted just 49 barrels into 37 bombs, well above the ~55% league average — especially considering the uninspiring 9.5% Pulled FBLD rate.

So while I’ll stand firm he’s not going to kill your team by any stretch, there are definitely hitters I’d prefer later in the opening round of drafts with higher power ceilings.
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