#RoadtoDubai 

PFL presents MMA WW2 this weekend when Ireland's Paul Hughes (+425) takes on Russia's Usman Nurmagomedov (-575). The rest of the card is littered with heavy favorites, so we'll only be wagering on the main since this could be the best fight outside of a UFC octagon this year. 

With the odds presented, there's only one question to ask. How good is Paul Hughes? His performance as a betting underdog against AJ Mckee turned heads, as many thought the matchup was too much too soon for the 27-year-old. Fresh off his best win, can he also defend takedowns and outbox Nurmagomedov in another step up in competition?

I certainly think so. At least, I think he has more of a chance than the odds show. Nurmagomedov's focus will most likely be on his wrestling, but he's spent significant time kickboxing, giving the heavy-handed Hughes a chance to change this fight at any moment. 

For that reason, I see why some are valuing Hughes, but I'm not sure on him getting past Nurmagomedov at this stage in his career. We've seen Hughes on his back in the past, and him being more comfortable in boxing range, plus his willingness to throw knees, means we could see Nurmagomedov have success with his takedowns when needed. If you do have confidence in Hughes, I recommend his point spread on DK. +9.5 was my runner-up play, but the location of this fight ran me off that number.

Since I'm not confident in a winner, I'm gonna play the numbers and take a value play on the round total. Even though the Nurmagomedov name is synonymous with decisions, Usman only has 4 decision wins in his 18 fights (4/13 wins for Hughes).

Nurmagomedov looking to prove that Hughes is below him and Hughes wanting to avoid the Saudi judges should lead to some big moments in this fight. 5 rounds of work and Hughes pressuring style further presents a better opportunity at an under play. At 2:1 odds, I think u4.5 is a solid bet for those who also lack confidence in a clear dog or pass spot.

Pick: u4.5 | 0.50u (DraftKings)
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