NFC Championship Betting Preview
Philadelphia Eagles #FlyEaglesFly
Washington Commanders #RaiseHail
Sunday 3 PM — FOX

This is one of my longer write-ups, but I tried to put a wealth of information inside for each of the 10+ bets I’m targeting for this game.

🎯 Washington Commanders +6.5 / ML
🛒 Best Odds: FD -120 | MGM +240, FD +235

I think there is a wide range of outcomes for this game. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Commanders win outright, or if the Eagles get everything to click again and blow them out. The Commanders are playing with house money and have shown they’ll go for it on every fourth down, converting an impressive 20/23 during the regular season and 6/9 in the playoffs. With this potential for volatility, I’ll always side with the underdog at a far better price.

My model makes this line only -4, as the Commanders are playing too well right now and have a massive edge at quarterback. Jayden Daniels has the poise of a 10-year vet. Quite frankly, he already reminds me of Mahomes or Brady in how he thrives under pressure, so I’m ignoring all the “playoff rookie QB” trends that support the Eagles side. The Commanders’ defense has also stepped up, improving from 26th to 18th in EPA over the second half of the year and playoffs. I’m playing this light (1/2 unit) as I like the props below much better.

🎯 Jayden Daniels o21.5 Passing Completions
🛒 Best Odds: FD -104, DK -105, CZR -105

Jayden Daniels is as good as anyone in the league at executing quickly, working through his reads, and firing an accurate ball. He’s cleared this number in both games vs. the Eagles, both playoff games (positive/neutral game scripts), and 8 of his last 10 games. There is a decent chance they find themselves in a negative game script too, which will only help.

The setup is ideal, as the Commanders’ run game is non-existent, and Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense emphasizes quick passes and screens from shotgun. On the other side, Vic Fangio’s defense, while elite, will give up shorter completions to prevent big plays. In fact, the Eagles have faced six top-10 QBs this year, and all six cleared this line: Baker (30), Burrow (26), Daniels (22 & 24), Stafford (24 & 26), Lamar (23).

🎯 Austin Ekeler 4+ / 5+ / 6+ Receptions
🛒 Best Odds: DK +138 | +302 | +660

This correlates with the above analysis. But Ekeler has been playing his best football since returning from injury. He should get a few designed passes and will be needed as the superior pass-blocking RB, especially with the Commanders’ offensive line losing Sam Cosmi. If the line doesn’t hold up or they’re in a trailing game script, Ekeler will be targeted as a safety valve. He has 3 & 4 receptions in the playoffs and 8 in his only game vs. the Eagles this year.

🎯 Jalen Carter 1+ / 2+ Sacks
🛒 Best Odds: DK +119 | CZR +750

We nailed George Karlaftis last week (3 sacks), and I am using the exact same analysis process here. With Sam Cosmi out, the Commanders will be weak on the interior offensive line. The other starting guard, Nick Allegretti, is horrible in pass protection, grading out at 59 per PFF (bottom 20 percentile). The potential replacements and other interior players—Trent Scott (54), Andrew Wylie (64), Tyler Biadasz (65), or Michael Deiter (41) are not any better. Carter plays all of his snaps inside, matched up against guards and centers, and is playing 95% of snaps in the playoffs.

Carter has also just been in a second gear all playoffs, getting 5 pressures vs. GB and 7 pressures with 2 sacks vs. LAR, way up from his season average of 3.3 pressures per game. Daniels will be a bit harder to sack, but this is a smash bet at plus money. Being a DT actually helps here, as Daniels can make the first guy miss off the edge or a blitz, but if he has to step up in the pocket, Carter will be there to capitalize.

🎯 Devonta Smith 5+ Receptions
🛒 Best Odds: DK +135

Dallas Goedert is the most popular play for this angle, but his odds have been zapped, and I think Smith might be the bigger beneficiary regardless. Jalen Hurts has a bad knee, and his rushing and escapability should be at least slightly compromised. I expect the passing game to be designed for quick passes on the first or second read—either middle of the field to Smith (50% slot) or Goedert, or deep outside shots to AJ Brown if he gets 1-on-1 coverage.

The entire universe is expecting a massive Saquon Barkley game, and the Commanders should be selling out against the run and stacking the box. Completely speculative, but the Eagles coming out and firing passes more than everyone expects would be a great way to catch them off guard. With the Eagles’ passing lines significantly depressed and a relatively weak Commanders secondary, this is a strong play.

🎯 Jalen Hurts o180.5 Passing Yards
🛒 Best Odds: FD 180.5, CZR 184.5, DK 186.5

I firmly believe that Jalen Hurts is far from an elite passer, but he also has extremely talented weapons at his disposal that are more than capable of getting half this line in just 1 explosive play. A passing line under 200 is representative of a 2023 Bryce Young or a backup QB, which is pretty absurd to post for a solid QB in a favorable matchup. While Hurts may have mobility issues due to his knee, that should affect lateral movement more than straight dropback passing from a clean pocket. Crazy value on this line.

🎯 Saquon Barkley u131.5 Rushing Yards
🛒 Best Odds: MGM 131.5, DK 127.5, FD 125.5

This line is absolutely insane—didn't look into it, but it might be one of the highest rushing lines ever posted. Sure, Barkley could hit a big run on the first drive, and betting this under makes me nervous as hell, but I don’t think he can get here without 1-2 very long runs. Let’s just hope his inevitable breakaway comes as a 30-yarder, not an 80-yarder. Gotta bet the value here on a massively inflated line.

🎰 Barkley u125.5 & Hurts o184.5 (Parlay)
🛒 Best Odds: CZR +240

Huge correlation here, if you'd rather just play them together. These two lines most of the season were 30-50 yards apart from what they are in this game. The adjustments have gone too far. Every book has a different correlation algorithm, so make sure to line shop. I wouldn’t take this unless you’re getting close to 2/1 (+200) or better.
#FlyEaglesFly #RaiseHail