DIPLOMATIC OVERTURES: #Putin explains the #Biden administration refused communication, that he "had business-like relations with the previous US President [#Trump]" and "if the victory wasn't stolen from him [Trump] in 2020, maybe the Ukrainian crisis that arose in 2022 would've never appeared." The praise is two-way: Trump's choice of opening line on his Truth Social post was notably very warm and there's no suggestion of increasing/continued military aid to Ukraine, only tariffs/sanctions if there's refusal to deal. On this point, the value of direct US imports from Russia is c.$3bn (i.e. next to nothing to exercise leverage). Trump stated he wants to end the war within 100 days. The most he's got up his sleeve against Russia then is...not much, but he's got an exit plan that deals a far great punch to #Zelensky.

Just before Trump's Truth post, Putin gave a virtual address on Russia's economic performance including in 2024: 1.7% GDP deficit vs US & France at 6.2%; 26% increase in non-oil & gas revenue in Dec (vs prior year); record revenues into the federal budget in Dec etc. Bank lending is contracting as planned on higher interest rates, which is bringing down inflation.

So expect lots of public exchanges and brinkmanship typical of Trump leading up to his summit with Putin and Xi. Now he's identified and removed the neocons who spoiled his diplomatic efforts in the first term such as John Bolton, who he called a "very stupid guy," he has the latitude and experience to deliver his peace agenda, and ideally repeal Biden and Obama era sanctions.
#Putin #Biden #Trump