On tap this week: Jobs report plus 10 key earnings. Here's what we want to see
All three major averages advanced for the week, powered by strong mega-cap earnings and favorable inflation data. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led with a 2% gain, while the S & P 500 increased about 1% and the Dow rose 0.6%. Thursday snapped a 13-day winning streak for the 30-stock Dow average, a stretch not seen since 1987. Looking to next week, earnings season enters its second half with the last of our mega-caps — Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) — set to report on Thursday. More economic data is on the way, which should show how the Federal Reserve is doing in its battle against inflation. That includes the super important monthly jobs report on Friday. 1. Economic releases : It's another big week for data following the Federal Reserve's expected decision this past Wednesday to raise the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points. The ISM Manufacturing report comes out on Tuesday and factory orders on Thursday. Combined, these reports provide insight into the state of manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of U.S. GDP. This number been contracting for the past eight months as of June's ISM Manufacturing report. That trend isn't expected to have reversed in July, but investors are forecasting the rate of contraction to slow. Anything below 50 on the ISM purchasing managers' index (PMI) is indicative of a contraction while anything above that level points to expansion. The rate of contraction/expansion is measured by the distance from that 50-level benchmark. The further below 50, the faster the contraction and the further above 50, the faster the rate of expansion. Also out Thursday is the ISM Services PMI, which has showed the services industry has expanded for six months straight through June. Investors expect this trend to continue but don't expect the rate to ramp up. We'll get a better read on the employment picture on Wednesday with the ADP report and then, more importantly, on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for July. As has been the case for many months, we want a strong headline number (200k is the estimate as of Friday) to be tempered by a slight slowdown in annual wage inflation (4.2% is the estimate as of Friday). Unemployment is expected to hold steady at about 3.6%. One thing to note: In past reports a lot of emphasis has been on the strength of the headline number and wage inflation on the view that higher-than-expected results would support elevated inflation. However, these two numbers have stayed high and inflation has come down — as we saw on Friday with the release of the June personal consumption expenditures price index. It will be interesting to see if investors are still as concerned about the impact these numbers may have on inflation. If we can get inflation down while keeping folks employed and making more than they did last year, that's an incredibly bullish set up as we work our way into 2024. Consumption represents nearly 70% of U.S. GDP and employment and wages play into consumers' buying power, even if the magnitude of their role in inflation is being somewhat questioned. 2. Quarterly earnings : Economic releases are important, especially the nonfarm payrolls report. But they are all backward looking. As a result, earnings will continue to garner the bulk of investors' attention as they provide better insight into the state of various industries at a granular level and in real time. We are about halfway though earnings season, with 51% of S & P 500 companies in the books, according to FactSet. Of those that have reported, 80% reported an upside earnings surprise while 64% reported better than expected revenue results. Let's hope the positive trend continues. Caterpillar (CAT) and Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) report Tuesday morning before the bell. For Caterpillar, there is going to be a lot of focus on the backlog and current state of dealer inventories. Caterpillar put up very strong results the last time around, but some investors worried those results were as good as it gets for the machinery maker, weighing on shares. It was a view we disagreed with due to billions of dollars earmarked by the government for infrastructure projects that should prolong the cycle. As for Stanley Black & Decker, we want to see progress on the three problem areas we called out in our initiation alert : too much inventory, bloated costs and a problematic supply chain. We're about one year into the company's restructuring, so we expect to hear about how it's going and what more can be done to unlock even more cost savings. Housing market dynamics should also be in focus as new home construction, repair, and remodeling in the U.S. all require tools like those made by Stanley Black & Decker. Later Tuesday after the bell, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Starbucks (SBUX) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) report. For AMD, we'd like further confirmation the PC market has bottomed, as well any updates on the timing of its MI300 AI chip production ramp. For Starbucks, it's all about demand in China. Management had good things to say about the region last quarter, but investors remain on edge about the pace of the post-Covid recovery. As for Pioneer Natural Resources, management missed the mark last quarter on realized prices and as a result took a hit on free cash flow performance. We want to see management get it right this time around, especially on free cash flow which is used for buybacks and the variable portion of the company's dividend payout. On Wednesday before the bell, Emerson Electric and Humana (HUM) report results. For Emerson, we really need to see some follow-through on the second quarter's strong performance. The name went into penalty box after reporting a disappointing fiscal first quarter but managed to work it's way out of the hole with a strong fiscal second quarter performance. Let's see if it can stay out. As for Humana, the benefits expense ratio (or medical loss ratio) will be in focus as an uptick in hospital visits and elective procedures have weighed on the name since mid-June. Bausch Health (BHC) is Thursday. Not much to say here, as the results will likely remain overshadowed by the ongoing Xifaxan litigation. As noted last quarter, a resolution in Xifaxan litigation and the spinoff of the remainder of its Bausch + Lomb stake represent the two most important future catalysts for the stock. Any commentary on these fronts would be welcome. Thursday after the close brings us to the main events of the week: Earnings from Apple and Amazon. From Apple, a general update on the business, some commentary on the demand in China and the opportunity in India (which investors see as the next major growth region) and maybe some comments on efforts to diversify the supply chain. Any commentary on feedback since the Vision Pro was unveiled would also be welcome. As for Amazon, we want to hear more about progress being made to rein in costs and grow into excess fulfillment capacity in its retail business. As for cloud unit AWS, we're listening for commentary on customer cloud optimization efforts as well as future capital expenditure expectations as the team works to build out it's artificial intelligence capabilities — a theme that was in focus during the calls hosted by Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META). For those looking to review first quarter performance ahead of these releases, be sure to keep our first-quarter earnings report card handy. Here's the full rundown of all the important domestic data in the week ahead. Monday, July 31 Before the bell: SoFi (SOFI), onsemi (ON), Symbotic (SYM), ImmunoGen (IMGN), Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP), AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER), CNA Financial Corp. (CNA), Alexanders (ALX), Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS), Community Bank System (CBU), SJW Group (SJW), Hutchison China MediTech Limited (HCM), Camtek Ltd. (CAMT), Silvercrest Asset Management Group (SAMG), Loews Corp (L), Oxford Lane Capital Corp. (OXLC), Banco Santander - Chile (SAN), Silicom Ltd (SILC), SuperCom Ltd. (SPCB) After the bell: Arista Networks (ANET), Avis Budget Group (CAR), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC), Republic Services (RSG), Yum China Holdings (YUMC), Western Digital Corp. (WDC), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC), Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN), PetMed Express (PETS), AvalonBay Communities (AVB), Harmonic (HLIT), SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC), Brixmor Property Group (BRX), J & J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF), Cushman & Wakefield (CWK), Hologic (HOLX), Leggett & Platt (LEG), Sonoco (SON), Sanmina Corporation (SANM), TFI International (TFII), Trex (TREX), TrueCar (TRUE), Welltower (WELL) Tuesday, August 1 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ET: JOLTS Job Openings Before the bell: Caterpillar (CAT) , Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) , Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH), Uber Technologies (UBER), Pfizer (PFE), Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD), Merck & (MRK), JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU), Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM), Altria Group (MO), SunPower Corp. (SPWR), SiriusXM Holdings (SIRI), Molson Coors Beverage (TAP), Marriott International (MAR), Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), BP p.l.c (BP), SYSCO Corp. (SYY), Global Payments (GPN), Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC), Shutterstock (SSTK), Ares Management LP (ARES), Equitrans Midstream Corporation (ETRN), International Game Technology (IGT), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Ecolab (ECL), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Watsco (WSO), Bloomin' Brands (BLMN), Graphic Packaging International Corp. (GPK), Gartner (IT), Zebra Technologies Corp. (ZBRA), IQVIA Holdings (IQV), Oshkosh Corporation (OSK), Leidos Holdings (LDOS), Eaton Corp. (ETN), yte Corp. (Y), Lear Corp. (LEA) After the bell: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) , Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) , Devon Energy Corp. (DVN), Pinterest (PINS), MicroStrategy (MSTR), e.l.f. Beauty (ELF), SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), Lumen Technologies (LUMN), Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), VF Corp. (VFC), Exact Sciences Corp. (EXAS), Paycom Software (PAYC), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Suncor Energy (SU), Camping World Holdings (CWH), Mosaic (MOS), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK), Match Group (MTCH), Boston Properties (BXP), American International Group (AIG), Allstate Corp. (ALL), Aspen Technology (AZPN), Columbia Sportswear (COLM), Electronic Arts (EA), Flowserve Corporation (FLS), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Denny's, Corp. (DENN), Prudential Financial (PRU), Container Store Group (TCS), Ternium S.A. (TX), Vimeo (VMEO), AFLAC (AFL), Cardlytics (CDLX) Wednesday, August 2 8:15 a.m. ET: ADP Employment Survey Before the bell: Emerson Electric (EMR) , Humana (HUM) , Bausch + Lomb Corporation (BLCO), CVS Health (CVS), Generac Holdings (GNRC), Cameco Corp. (CCJ), Perion Network Ltd. (PERI), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Carlyle Group L.P. (CG), Scorpio Tankers (STNG), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Ltd (TEVA), Phillips 66 (PSX), Dynatrace (DT), Rithm Capital Corp (RITM), Wingstop (WING), Ferrari N.V. (RACE), Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (SPR), Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT), Johnson Controls (JCI), Allegiant Travel (ALGT), BorgWarner (BWA), CDW Corp (CDW), DuPont (DD), Driven Brands Holdings (DRVN), Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG), Yum! Brands (YUM), Allegheny Technologies orporated (ATI), AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC), Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE), Adient plc (ADNT), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Garmin Ltd. (GRMN), WWE (WWE), Bunge Ltd. (BG), Criteo S.A. (CRTO), Seagen (SGEN) After the bell: PayPal (PYPL), Shopify (SHOP), QUALCOMM (QCOM), Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY), Unity (U), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), MercadoLibre (MELI), Energy Transfer LP (ET), Etsy (ETSY), Apache Corp. (APA), Albemarle Corp. (ALB), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO), Sunrun (RUN), Joby Aviation (JOBY), Confluent (CFLT), DoorDash (DASH), Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), HubSpot (HUBS), CF Industries Holdings (CF), Lemonade (LMND), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT), Fastly (FSLY), Realty ome Corp. (O), Upwork (UPWK), Metlife (MET), TripAdvisor (TRIP), Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB), EVgo (EVGO), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Revolve Group LLC (RVLV), Zillow Group (ZG), JFrog Ltd. (FROG), Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (HLF), Schrödinger (SDGR), Simon Property Group (SPG), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Clorox (CLX), McKesson Corp. (MCK), NerdWallet (NRDS), Public Storage (PSA), Qorvo (QRVO), Cerus Corporation (CERS), C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Traeger (COOK), GXO Logistics (GXO), RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX), Rayonier (RYN) Thursday, August 3 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial jobless claims 10:00 a.m. ET: Factory Orders Before the bell: Bausch Health Companies (BHC) , Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Cheniere Energy (LNG), ConocoPhillips (COP), Expedia (EXPE), Moderna (MRNA), Wayfair (W), Hasbro (HAS), CIGNA Corp. (CI), Lantheus Holdings (LNTH), Quanta Services (PWR), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Fiverr International Ltd. (FVRR), Air Products & Chemicals (APD), TopBuild Corp. (BLD), EPAM Systems (EPAM), InterDigital (IDCC), Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD), Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH), Cummins (CMI), HF Slair Corporation (DINO), Southern (SO), Starwood Property Trust (STWD), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ), First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA), Cedar Fair Entertainment (FUN), Kellogg (K), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL), Privia Health Group (PRVA), Becton, Dickinson & (BDX), Chimera Investment Corp (CIM), Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ), Shift4 Payments (FOUR), Hyatt Hotels Corp (H), Lion Electric (LEV), Portillos (PTLO), Shake Shack (SHAK), Deluxe Corp. (DLX), Iron Mountain (IRM), Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR), PBF Energy (PBF), Papa John's International (PZZA), Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP), Wix.com Ltd. (WIX), Apollo Global Management, LLC (APO), Butterfly Network (BFLY), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Sempra Energy (SRE), Aptiv PLC (APTV), Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P (BIP), Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS), Pitney Bowes (PBI), Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH), Trimble (TRMB), WESCO International (WCC), WestRock (WRK), Arrow Electronics (ARW), Cars.com (CARS), Constellation Energy Group (CEG), Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) After the bell: Amazon.com (AMZN) , Apple (AAPL) , Coinbase Global (COIN), Block (SQ), Airbnb (ABNB), DraftKings (DKNG), Cloudflare (NET), Fortinet (FTNT), Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR), Amgen (AMGN), ContextLogic (WISH), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Atlassian Corporation Plc (TEAM), WW International (WW), Redfin Corporation (RDFN), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Yelp (YELP), Dropbox (DBX), Stem (STEM), Corteva (CTVA), Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST), Consolidated Edison (ED), Rocket Companies (RKT), Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), EOG Resources (EOG), FIGS (FIGS), Funko (FNKO), Universal Display Corporation (OLED), Chesapeake Utilities Corp. (CPK), Opko Health (OPK), Sprout Social (SPT), Udemy (UDMY), CarGurus (CARG), DaVita (DVA), GoDaddy (GDDY), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS), Progyny (PGNY), Post Holdings (POST), Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM), Ziff Davis (ZD), Friday, August 4 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm payrolls Before the bell: fuboTV (FUBO), Nikola Corporation (NKLA), Fisker (FSR), Enbridge (ENB), Magna International (MGA), Dominion Energy (D), ACM Research (ACMR), Cinemark (CNK), Frontier Communications Parent (FYBR), Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), inTEST Corporation (INTT), Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA), TELUS International (TIXT), XPO Logistics (XPO), Fluor Corp. (FLR), Gray Television (GTN), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), LyondellBasell Industries (LYB), Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST), Global Partners LP (GLP) (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

CEO of Apple Tim Cook arrives at the Sun Valley Lodge for the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, July 11, 2023. Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images