Sudan one month on: Why cease-fires are failing, and what global leaders are missing
KHARTOUM, Sudan - May 6, 2023: Sudanese Army sodliers walk near armoured vehicles stationed on a street in southern Khartoum, amid ongoing fighting against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. AFP via Getty Images

One month after fighting between Sudan's two military factions broke out in the capital, Khartoum, internationally-brokered peace talks in Saudi Arabia have yielded no solution. Airstrikes and artillery continued to pound the country's capital and surrounding regions in recent days, and violence has also spread to the long-embattled Darfur region in the west. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) said Monday that more than 600 people had been killed and over 5,000 injured as a result of the fighting. The real toll is expected to be far higher. Almost a million people have fled their homes, both to locations within Sudan and across the border to neighboring countries. Meanwhile, those who have stayed put often have no access to essentials despite a commitment from the two warring factions to restore access to food and electricity. Prices of food and fuel have soared, exacerbating malnutrition and hammering the local economy. Warring generals Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (or "Hemedti"), leader of the Rapid Support Forces, show no signs of halting the conflict as they vie for total control of the state's military and government, natural resources and 46 million inhabitants. The U.S., U.N. and Saudi Arabia are brokering talks between the two sides, though tentative cease-fires and commitments to allow humanitarian corridors into the sprawling country have collapsed almost immediately.

'The needs are immense'

The IRC warned Monday that the humanitarian situation will continue to deteriorate unless all parties involved prioritize the protection of civilians. "We know there are many uncertainties for people right now, but one thing that's clear is the needs are immense, immediate and will be for a long time," said IRC Vice President for East Africa Kurt Tjossem. "The longer they remain in these conditions, the more vulnerable they become to disease, hunger, and other hardships." Things have come a long way from 2021 when Burhan and Hemedti led a military coup that ousted the civilian government of Abdalla Hamdok. Since then, the SAF and RSF had been sharing power in Khartoum to facilitate what most Sudanese citizens hoped would be a transition back to civilian rule. The World Bank and several global powers froze aid to the country after the military takeover, honoring calls from civilians not to legitimize its leadership. However, Burhan and Hemedti's divergent political visions were never reconciled, and the fragile power-sharing arrangement began to unravel in early April, culminating in the breakout of a full-scale conflict in Khaartoum on April 15.

METEMA, Ethiopia - May 5, 2023: Refugees who crossed from Sudan to Ethiopia wait in line to register at IOM (International organization for Migration) in Metema, Ethiopia. Amanuel Sileshi / AFP via Getty Images

In a speech at the UN Human Rights Council last week, U.K. Minister for International Development and Africa Andrew Mitchell stressed the importance of the international community in helping to revert Sudan to the "political track" by sending a "united message of concern and of horror" and breaking the "cycle of impunity in Sudan." Yet many Sudanese believe that despite the efforts of various regional and international bodies, the Jeddah talks — lacking a substantial civilian voice and the threat of harsh international sanctions against the generals and their respective inner circles — will not be part of the solution.

Rewarding 'belligerence'

Sudanese-Australian writer, broadcaster and activist Yassmin Abdel-Magied told CNBC last week that global leaders had inadvertently given Burhan and Hemedti political legitimacy and rewarded their "belligerence," leaving the majority of Sudanese who long for civilian government unrepresented. Both the SAF and RSF benefit from financial and political support from foreign powers including Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Libya, the University of Cambridge's Associate Professor Sharath Srinivasan told CNBC last month. While Benjamin Hunter from risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, said these close relationships make it more difficult for a resolution to the conflict to be found imminently. Targeted and collaborative efforts by the international community to exert pressure on the countries supporting Sudan's military factions were needed, Abdel-Magied said. "If [their] resource[s], financial and otherwise, can be throttled, then we might actually be able to find the right kind of incentive that's going to make them stop fighting," she told CNBC via telephone.

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