Why Millennials Are About to Leave Cities in Droves
[{"id": "d1hykib", "text": "The basic argument here seems to be that once they have families they'll leave.  I'd say that's probably a \"no shit sherlock\" argument.  But it isn't like millennials were a massive generation like the baby boomers.  Younger people will still replace them, unless we're really reversing current trends.  And that's the other argument that this article makes - that young people are living in cities because they can't afford anything else.  But they don't really make any actual argument as to why that's true.  They just sort of claim it.", "replies": [{"id": "d1i2ixs", "text": "The biggest cohort replacing 20-something millennials (as they turn into 30-something parents) in cities are downsizing empty-nester baby boomers who no longer need a 4/5 bedroom spread in the suburbs.", "replies": [{"id": "d1i2tzv", "text": "Yep, that's a good point, too.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "d1i68qu", "text": "\"It isn't like millennials were a massive generation like the baby boomers\"\n\n[Pretty sure you're wrong there](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-113.html)\n\nI'm a CRE agent in CT by the way! Maybe we've done a deal before haha", "replies": [{"id": "d1i6iwu", "text": "&gt; Pretty sure you're wrong there\n\nWell... sort of.  In raw numbers you're right, but in percentages?  The baby boomers were a greater increase on the population than the millenials.\n\n&gt;I'm a CRE agent in CT by the way! Maybe we've done a deal before haha\n\nHah, you never know.  Unfortunately my CRE practice is a lot smaller than my residential practice, so probably not.  I'm (and my people) all over the state constantly though.", "replies": [{"id": "d1i6yuv", "text": "touche!", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "d1incns", "text": "The Millenials are equal in size if not larger than the boomers. The Millenials are the baby boomer's children, the baby boomers had a positive birth rate, therefore there are more of them than their parents...", "replies": [{"id": "d1jaxag", "text": "&gt; therefore there are more of them than their parents...\n\nYes, as I already said, that's certainly true.  But the boomers came in as a considerably higher percentage of the population, which is what we're really concerned with in real estate, since it relates to the amount of property available vs desired.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "d1iyin8", "text": "I was just at a conference discussing millennials and an older man (50ish) said \"they love to be close to night life and going out and all that. So would I! But I have kids and once you have kids you move to the better school districts. You want millennials to stay in the city, put a good school there.\"\n\nSo simple yet brilliant. ", "replies": [{"id": "d1j2odw", "text": "the problem is mixed income areas tend to have shit schools.  If you want good urban schools, you have to price out poor people, and that is not a very pc thing to do and goes against every public housing policy.  Private schools can help, but they can also compound the problem as the 'good' students leave the bad school leaving only the worst students.  Also ya know paying 10k+ or whatever per kid every year makes moving to the suburbs slightly more affordable.  \n\nI live in either the worst or second worst (forget which) school district in my state, but one of the wealthier areas.  We are next to one of the best if not the best districts.  How does that make any sense?  The good district lets you pay transfer fees to send your kids there, so any one who can afford it does so, leaving all the poor people in the crap district which only compounds the problem.  \n\nThe problems with public schooling are just wtf mind breaking and there seems to be no solutions when you start talking mixed income areas.", "replies": [{"id": "d1jdu8w", "text": "quality public education is a major societal issue in the urban areas of the country, just another 800 lb gorilla in the room along with social security, healthcare, etc...  \n\nWhoever figures it out should win a Nobel prize. ", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "d1id61g", "text": "The [survey this article references](http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2014/millennials-prefer-cities-to-suburbs-subways-to-driveways.html) states the opposite...", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "d1vfa90", "text": "One of the main reasons I live in a major city (SF) is for the employment opportunities. Short of convincing my company to open a new office or starting my own firm, my job does not/will not exist in the suburbs. \n\nAll my current superiors travel in from Walnut Creek every day (1 hour commute). I hope it doesn't come to that, but who knows. ", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]