When will cap rates move up? Tell me your opinion of how and when
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[{"id": "j01sux6", "text": "I\u2019m seeing movement on some lower quality assets. I think it starts with lower quality and creeps into better quality stuff.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "j01w1dk", "text": "Cap rates go up when there are more sellers than buyers, money is scarce and people stop believing the fed will turn on the money hose when unemployment gets to 6.5 percent.", "replies": [{"id": "j0502zv", "text": "Yeah too many (not saying in their case but anecdotally) people assume that since 30year resi mortgage rates are 6.25% or because the 10-year is at 3.5% that cap rates across the board should be a percent or more  higher than a year ago. But in reality there is still so much demand across the various sectors of real estate because of the larger economic factors at play so the textbook causes for cap rate expansion have been offset by the broader uncertainty of other (non-RE) asset classes. \n\nPersonally speaking, I raise money from the demographic of people worth between $10MM-50MM on average and not from the fund level but these are guys whose stock portfolios make up 75% of their NW so relatively speaking the deals we are offering them at 20% IRR are weak compared to the last 10 years of 30% IRR deals but they are still receiving steady cash flows and haven't seen their principle investment dwindle by double digits so the demand has remained high personally", "replies": [], "depth": 2}, {"id": "j058gdb", "text": "This is the way", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "j025k8i", "text": "I work on US and European CRE valuation, and we're moving cap rates across most markets for MFR, industrial, and the smaller sampling of retail and office that I work on. Most values have come down for q4 despite rising rents in many markets.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "j02m7so", "text": "When the uneducated brokers who just pound the phones start giving sellers realistic guidance and not last years pricing (speaking from the industrial side)", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "j02uvq6", "text": "Cap rates are already increasing, slowly.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "j04ntmn", "text": "Cap rates will move up when buyers make offers at new cap rates. We all know how long it takes for a commercial real estate transaction to occur, and we all know how long it takes for those comps to hit the market as well, post closing. The current comps are from 4 to 5 months ago, And in that same time a lot has changed. Don\u2019t expect instant gratification with cap rates and comps. There is a lag.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]