Anyone else’s deal all die?
12 year office leasing vet, curious how Transactions are surviving around the country. 

Every transaction over 20k in my pipe is either on hold, on life support or dead. Groups with expiries around the corner are asking for 12month extensions. I hope I’m an exception but I doubt it. 

Stay safe.
[{"id": "fkk9gmo", "text": "I'm also curious about this. We have 2 multi-family deals under LOI (buy side) and are hoping we can keep moving but am also assuming there will be at least a slowdown if not a pause.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkk9ler", "text": "Paused at the moment, but not worried about it. This is like winter break.. take some time to sharpen your pipeline this thing is done by the end of the month.", "replies": [{"id": "fkka7be", "text": "I agree. Get ready, get focused, and emerge from this break prepared.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fkkbpoa", "text": "I can hope this thing is done by the end of the month. \n\nI just don't know how long we can keep the world on pause.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fkkf2n4", "text": "End of the month? This hasn\u2019t even started in the US. \n\nWe\u2019ll be lucky to be out of this in 6. A BAD recession is a 5% contraction in GDP, China\u2019s contracted by 20%. We\u2019re 12-18 months away from a vaccine, and until then things are going to crawl. Our company just declared that we\u2019re in a \u201cwartime economy,\u201d meaning we don\u2019t spend a penny we don\u2019t have to and plan on tenants defaulting.", "replies": [{"id": "fkkrfkq", "text": "This is our stance as well. Second order and third order effects will take months to play out", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fkkqljg", "text": "Honestly curious to hear your thinking on why were done in a month", "replies": [], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fkl39p1", "text": "Dude, this is going to last much, much longer than a month. It may stabilize, but there's no going back to normal.\n\nhttps://nyti.ms/2wSDnro", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkkcaxv", "text": "I have two large hotel deals u/c.. it\u2019s a shit show.", "replies": [{"id": "fkke1eq", "text": "Oof", "replies": [], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fkkf5x3", "text": "If they haven\u2019t gone hard, I don\u2019t think those deals are happening.", "replies": [{"id": "fkksdyq", "text": "I just put one of them under contract on Friday.  The other had a $2.5m price reduction from ask over about a 2 week span when things really started to get serious.", "replies": [{"id": "fkl6r2i", "text": "I hope the get them done! However, given how screwed the entire hospitality/tourism industry is with this can you imagine anyone lending on a hotel right now? Look at Italy now, that\u2019s where the US is going to be in a few weeks.", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fkzzv9e", "text": "hotel \"deals\" hahahahaha let me guess 10x gross asking price with a $1.8M PIP left on a tired dog brand", "replies": [{"id": "fl0mfym", "text": "7 year old Marriott selling at a 9.5 cap on 2019 numbers?", "replies": [{"id": "flhvzfm", "text": "I have clients would look at this hotel. Send me info aali@silverthreadcapital.com", "replies": [{"id": "fli1mt5", "text": "It\u2019s even better than I said.  Nice airport location, $100+ RevPAR in 2019.", "replies": [{"id": "flj1f38", "text": "I have hotel buyers, would close if it's right location, share details..", "replies": [], "depth": 6}], "depth": 5}], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkkcrrs", "text": "I'm in retail so it's only going to get worse for me", "replies": [{"id": "fkke26k", "text": "And then coronavirus happened", "replies": [{"id": "fkkfmg8", "text": "Nice", "replies": [{"id": "fkkfo40", "text": "\ud835\udcf7\ud835\udcf2\ud835\udcec\ud835\udcee \u261c(\uff9f\u30ee\uff9f\u261c)\n#Nice Leaderboard\n**1.** `u/GillysDaddy` at **17710 nices**\n\n**2.** `u/OwnagePwnage` at **11911 nices**\n\n**3.** `u/RespectfulNiceties` at **8332 nices**\n\n**...**\n\n**196151.** `u/joGetsjo` at **1 nice**\n\n---\n\n^(I) ^(AM) ^(A) ^(BOT) ^(|) ^(REPLY) ^(**!IGNORE**) ^(AND) ^(I) ^(WILL) ^(STOP) ^(REPLYING) ^(TO) ^(YOUR) ^(COMMENTS)", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}, {"id": "fklgrb7", "text": "Ooof. This isn't /roastme", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkkdn7w", "text": "I am preparing to write the office market reports for a major metropolitan area. My working title is currently this. \n\nOffice space proves mostly useless in worlds largest work from home experiment. \n\nThe smart brokers I support are scrambling. The marginal ones think everyone else is over reacting and this whole thing will blow over. \n\nWe are a month or two away from massive job cuts. And six months away from massive space givebacks. \n\nNobody took me seriously when I said this thing would be horrible at last months sales meeting. People are starting to get it.", "replies": [{"id": "fkkwm07", "text": "I was called bubble boy for three weeks while I went about collecting supplies, I\u2019d rather hedge my business with preparation than deny something bad could happen. You\u2019re a good man Charlie Brown", "replies": [{"id": "fkl57h1", "text": "&gt; Office space proves mostly useless in worlds largest work from home experiment.\n\nI think this is an exaggeration. There are proven advantages to having people work in the same physical office in morale, productivity, innovation, company culture, etc. Yes, companies CAN survive working from home for a period of time, but most will still want office space (and more if they are growing) as soon as is practical. Larger tenants that are looking for space a year or two out will be less impacted than near-term tenants. Obviously certain industries will be more impacted by a recession than others as well.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkkf1te", "text": "I am closing lots of 2-4 unit deals still in Chicago. They are all 500k-1 mil so similar size to commercial in many areas. We haven't seen any decline from investors in Chicago yet and actually a bit of an uptick now that rates have dropped. If this outbreak drags on I do expect either a stall of growth or a mild decline to occur but from looking at past outbreak statistics the economy should recover quickly once this stops headlining the news.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkkfprp", "text": "I'm trying to arrange hotel refinancing, it seems lenders are pulling brakes...", "replies": [{"id": "fkl4vrx", "text": "Yeah, I've heard hotel financing is completely frozen for the moment.", "replies": [{"id": "fkl7r2s", "text": "Multifamily financing still doing okay. I could imagine hotel being super uncertain.", "replies": [{"id": "fkl8cnn", "text": "I think hotel and restaurants are going to bear the brunt of this, or at least get it first.", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fklgxth", "text": "We are basically reserving all capital right now for existing borrowers", "replies": [], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fkllewa", "text": "I\u2019m doing the same right now. We\u2019re already in the ninth inning and under app, and the bank hasn\u2019t gotten cold feet yet , or even mentioned anything about this virus, but I feel like at any second they could pull the plug", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkkhfj8", "text": "Operator here. Everything is on hold. Currently in the 9th inning for two major 20+mil refinancing not sure where were headed", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkkia3e", "text": "Was supposed to close a multifamily deal last week but waiting for the bank to schedule. I sure as hell hope it\u2019s not because of corona... doing multiple showings today so the buyers are still out there.", "replies": [{"id": "fkkyow3", "text": "Unless you are in a very unusual market where apartment vacancy rates are very low, I can't imagine the deal being canceled, especially considering interest rates being so low.", "replies": [{"id": "fkkyt8t", "text": "I agree. I doubt it would happen but so much in the air right now.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}, {"id": "fklvob0", "text": "I heard one sponsor had to default on their purchase because their lender didn\u2019t show up to a multi deal... on the day of closing.", "replies": [{"id": "fkpq7yx", "text": "Yikes, that's terrible.v", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fklqnot", "text": "I have two multifamily properties under contract right now with condition dates in the next few weeks. I\u2019ve had this in the back of my mind for awhile but keep telling myself that it\u2019s still the safest investment so they should go forward. Other asset classes not so much, fingers crossed.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkkkkp6", "text": "Side note, [CREXi.com](https://CREXi.com) has pursuits pipeline and closing tracker features that are SUPER helpful in these situations. Take a look and let me know what you think.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkko2ef", "text": "My job interview to move to a larger REPE fund was cancelled.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkkodb7", "text": "I have about $120MM of Industrial under contract right now and it\u2019s business as usually on the acquisitions side.", "replies": [{"id": "fks4rht", "text": "Holey smokes.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkkou92", "text": "Hospitality broker here - two closings happening next week (all approved with docs so fingers crossed) and we've been talking through how this differs from a more fundamental economic breakdown and the short term ramifications for deals going into contract. Heard several lenders are pulling back so will be exploring that more fully next week. Hoping this is short terms disruption and pent up demand will boost things after we return to travel....", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkku7cm", "text": "Deals are dying here but more from $30 oil than the virus.", "replies": [{"id": "fkkubx4", "text": "Calgary?", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkkzqdf", "text": "I work at a large PE shop. We put everything on hold that we hadn\u2019t put offer on, and even ones we had put offers on were are being extra careful unless we went hard. Also, we\u2019re having a conference call Monday to get aggregate thoughts on a strategy moving forwards.", "replies": [{"id": "fkq6lg8", "text": "So what did they say on the call", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkl25vi", "text": "Industrial RE broker here. Hard to set meetings, and some parts of escrow have been placed on hold. Things certainly slowing down. Our office of ~50 is essentially closed. Good luck to everyone reading this! We'll be ok.", "replies": [{"id": "fkl3xwu", "text": "Our office of ~50 is also closed", "replies": [{"id": "fkl5adv", "text": "Closed, or working from home. You can do 90% of the brokerage work from home, except showings. That part will for sure slow, and already has.", "replies": [{"id": "fkl7w3i", "text": "I'm sure its working from home.  Brokers will be brokers. The successful ones will work.", "replies": [{"id": "fkl8bfh", "text": "Gotta hustle", "replies": [], "depth": 5}], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkl2lhi", "text": "I've been in different facets of commercial real estate (appraiser, corporate real estate manager, asset manager - mostly in retail) and commercial construction for 30 years.  Here's my 2 cents: \n\n* if I owned stock in an office property investment company, I might have sold the stock at the beginning of the panic.  Based on how things have gone in places like Japan, Singapore &amp; S Korea, I think the \"shutdown\" will be just a few weeks.  However, companies will evaluate their use of office space especially if mass telecommuting goes well.  \n* I think already hot industrial will be unscathed if not better or much better\n* I saw a couple of comments about MF deals - hubby calls us \"mom &amp; pop\" apt developers (target is building 40 - 70ish units) with a land closing set for this month.  Husband asked today if we should ask for an extension.  I said HELL NO.  Full disclosure - we are getting a deal and 1/2, my greatest site find ever in 30 years.  Since we had to look at dozens if not 100+ sites to find this one, the far greater risk is letting it go.    I believe most apt mkts in the US are pretty hot?  I guess the main issue would be if lenders backed off financing.  \n* Retail - As far as FL, we have a shortage of quality retail buildings and land; other than marginal retailers (who prob aren't expanding much anyway) I can't see retailers backing off.  I predict people will get cabin fever, esp with kids home from school, and start shopping before the \"shutdown\" ends.  To me, the retail \"crisis\" is confined to malls (people will esp avoid malls in this crisis) - that seems consistent across the country.  For example when Lucky's went under, chains swarmed to take their spaces.", "replies": [{"id": "fkl5f8h", "text": "&gt; companies will evaluate their use of office space especially if mass telecommuting goes well.\n\nThis aspect is overhyped. Companies will contract space for economic conditions much more than suddenly deciding working from home is great for their business.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkl2s7e", "text": "I'm under contract for a small MF building. Think I'm just going to take the hit on the earnest money.", "replies": [{"id": "fkvadgh", "text": "Lenders are lending in MF, and I've gotten termsheet, just not in hotels", "replies": [{"id": "fkvicaa", "text": "My big issues are 1) I don't think I'll be able to push rents 2) I think cap rates will go up. My deal is all small one beds so mostly recently out of college or people with service jobs. \n\nWith all the uncertainty why wouldn't I just put the money in an S&amp;P index fund when I think it's bottomed out then look for another deal in six months?", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkld6fl", "text": "just closed multi family in Brooklyn, 64 units. signed and done.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fklgpdb", "text": "Lender here. I'm closing deals in process but libor floors are going in. It's going to be a cluster. Also, nobody knows how a libor floor will work with a swap", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fklilmj", "text": "Market volatility is a big issue. But the biggest issue will be if the land records can stay open in the various counties. If the land records close, you can't record deeds and mortgages and title companies won't insure. At that point, deals will either be dead or postponed.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fklkrtd", "text": "My job offer at a PE firm is on hold until this blows over. Tentative start date is mid April but I can see it pushing till summer.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fklru48", "text": "Developer here. ~350k SF of office tenants negotiating LOI. Hoping they stay the course.", "replies": [{"id": "fklygr1", "text": "Sorry but I gotta ask. What happens if they don\u2019t? What is worst case scenario?", "replies": [{"id": "fklz4qr", "text": "I mean... it\u2019s fine - but it would be a bummer. Our projects were already ahead of schedule so these deals would have been just gravy. But wouldn\u2019t be the end of the world.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkqzch0", "text": "500M-1B fund. Nothing is getting finished. My sisters gargantuan company is coming in a buying all the deals for their distressed fund.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fkutk0n", "text": "Underwriter for CMBS for Citigroup here. Zero deals. They\u2019ve effectively stopped lending and are not greenlighting new deals. Hotels are fucked.", "replies": [{"id": "flhwfvb", "text": "I spoke with few cmbs lenders, would consider deals, but most are sitting on sidelines", "replies": [{"id": "fli9m7c", "text": "Citigroup has shut down CMBS, moving underwriters into loan mod and asset management. Just heard today there will likely be layoffs.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}]