Investing in military towns. Not sure what to make of upcoming cuts to the military's budget.
The first lesson that I learned when learning real estate 12 years ago was: jobs, jobs, jobs. I'm analyzing an apartment that may not stand up to the proper criteria for having a growing job market. I would appreciate some assistance or advice.

Considering buying a large apartment complex in Warner Robins, Georgia. Warner Robins is a faster growing city south of Macon GA, and stands about 1.5 hours south of Atlanta.
Population of 70,000 in Warner Robins, 91,000 in Macon.
The Robins Air Force base employs about 25,000 people, most of whom live in Macon or Warner Robins.
Apparently, the priority of the job cuts will be to have employees retire early. 

Links of interest:
http://www.macon.com/2013/12/12/2829378/air-force-to-cut-900-civilian.html
http://www.macon.com/2013/06/06/2507385/robins-could-face-cuts-even-without.html
http://www.macon.com/2013/03/01/2377012/robins-air-force-base-workers.html
http://www.13wmaz.com/news/article/232819/153/Is-Robins-Air-Force-Base-Prepared-for-BRAC
http://www.robins.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-120725-066.pdf (community action plan for warner robins)

The property is C class, and offers low to middle income families with good housing. Minimum wage workers can afford to live there, rents range from high-400s to low-600s. Occupancy is currently at 84%, we would bring in a 'better' management company who will be more aggressive in marketing vacant units.

The upcoming budget cuts can be good or bad to the Robins Air Force Base; jobs could potentially be added to this base, while other bases take more cuts. But the uncertainty is making this investment a big question mark. There are other employers, but if the base takes away a large chunk of jobs, lets say, 1000, those people might leave, reducing the need for other lower end jobs, businesses would suffer, etc.

How can I measure the economic effects of further job cuts? Are apartment units like these more likely to falter than higher end units, or the opposite?

edit: HandsomeJew is my alter-ego for those wondering why HandsomeJew replied to comments so enthusiastically.
[{"id": "ce4xwk2", "text": "There isn't anywhere you can go to get a read, specifically, for one city's exposure to military cuts, so you've got to look at trends.  In this case, you've got a declining need for military, overall, in a location whose employment is dominated by the military.  Unless you're stealing the deal, I'd walk.  If you like this kind of product, check out student housing.  Same format, but the trend for colleges is GROWTH.", "replies": [{"id": "ce5bqxt", "text": "I disagree with targeting college property.  The cap rates are always low, damage/complaints from students are very high, and I see enrollment dropping over the next several years if you are not working near a major university.", "replies": [{"id": "ce5j4b4", "text": "What I said was, \"If you like this kind of product (Military Housing), check out student housing. Same format, but the trend for colleges is GROWTH.\"  You're right that cap rates are \"always low\" - the lower the cap rate, the higher the sales price.  I'm not advocating student housing per se, though that market segment has become very competitive.  Exit strategies have become more efficient for student housing as specialty investors/REITs that specifically acquire that product are now plentiful. And thats the primary reason this asset subclass has become a target for institutional investors, and as a result, have compressed cap rates.  The properties that institutions are targeting have to be walking distance to a school that has a solid growth pattern, have at minimum of 200 beds, and each bedroom needs its own private bath.  Personally, I still prefer \"bread &amp; butter\" Class A multifamily....  ", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "ce5bpib", "text": "Robbins is a huge af base that isn't going anywhere. In the next round of BRACs Robbins will probably grow absorbing other bases with afmc (air force material command) because of its size. Another note: most of that base is civilian. Without the transient population of active duty there is a lower demand for rental units. \nSource: I am a cre broker/investor and my wife is active duty air force.", "replies": [{"id": "ce68dgs", "text": "Demand for rentals seems to be sailing along OK, but I have noticed that many new constructions are for homeowners. I understand that the base won't go anywhere, but if the airforce decides to retire a bunch of airplanes, that might mean layoffs for Robins. Are you a broker in Warner Robins?", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "ce5h247", "text": "I'm from Macon and work in multifamily. the base isn't going anywhere and neither are the jobs. Now would I buy a class c in WR? Probably not the people that work on base make significantly more than minimum wage and aren't going to want to live in a pos garden apt. I'd look at what the average home price is nearby because I'd imagine they'd be pretty affordable. That's my two cents but hey please pump some money into my old stomping grounds. ", "replies": [{"id": "ce68edc", "text": "The C class apartment is probably not housing many employees from the base. It is housing people that work in other supporting businesses, supermarkets, cleaning, part-time work, and other minimum wage jobs. We are going multi-family because we can't acquire the same number of units in the SFH business due to leveraging limits. It's also harder to buy 50 homes than it is to buy 50 apartment units.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "ceo48zm", "text": "Another key factor many investors don't consider is the potential for new housing units being built on base. This could have a significant impact on overall market vacancy and rents; starting at the top and eventually trickling down to Class C product. Military communities are a tricky animal, especially if you are planning on a longterm hold. Hope you are getting a sweetheart deal!", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "ceuovf0", "text": "There's usually a lot of work done through Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC) when considering which base to close. I believe they do some studies and surveys too. You might see if there are any economic impact studies already in the can on this base.\n\nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_Realignment_and_Closure_Commission\n\nEven if there isn't one done on that base you could find a similar base and see what happened there when it was downsized or closed and what happened to real estate prices. This might help you with convincing a bank too.", "replies": [{"id": "ceuovjk", "text": "[](#autowikibot)*Here's a bit from linked Wikipedia article about* [***Base Realignment and Closure Commission***](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base%20Realignment%20and%20Closure%20Commission) : \n\n---\n\n&gt;\n\n&gt;**Base Realignment and Closure** (**BRAC**) is a process by a United States federal government commission to increase United States Department of Defense efficiency by planning end of the Cold War realignment and closure of military installations. More than 350 installations have been closed in five BRAC rounds: 1989, 1991, 1993, 1995, and 2005.\n\n\n---\n\n[^(about)](http://www.reddit.com/r/autowikibot/wiki/index) ^| *^(/u/seattlewausa can reply with 'delete'. Will also delete if comment's score is -1 or less.)*  ^| ^(**Summon**: wikibot, what is something?) ^| [^(flag for glitch)](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=/r/autowikibot&amp;subject=bot%20glitch&amp;message=%0Acontext:http://www.reddit.com/r/CommercialRealEstate/comments/1t5u6y/investing_in_military_towns_not_sure_what_to_make/ceuovf0)", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}]