What are your opinions on the future of Retail Property post pandemic...
Hi guys

I hope you are all doing well

I am interested to to hear what your thoughts are on the future of physical retail units.

Its obvious there's been a sharp decline in uptake and investment in the sector whereby the pandemic had acted as a catalyst. However how  do you see the future/is there one?
[{"id": "gngc5r3", "text": "Depends on what type. Grocery anchored retail is good, retail off main streets are good, outdoor malls are good ( no CAM charges and basically a lot of NNN spaces connected) small strips off of main street house with hair salons, restaurants, etc are good, flex spaces are good. Retail isn't going to die, but will just change. But your question is broad so am not sure what type you are asking about.  The stores that didn't shift during the pandemic suffered, but others that evolved or were already set up to handle the shift survived or thrived. On mobile", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gngi8dj", "text": "I think retail without a big anchor is going to flounder. Amazon and e-commerce is here to stay for the time being. Plus people are still staying inside more and likely will for the next six months as we get back to normal. Ride around your local neighborhoods and see what the strip malls look like. Lots of empty storefronts in decent suburbs in my area. I don\u2019t see that changing short term. I think restaurants and retail with good restaurant anchors will do ok as people are clambering to eat in restaurants again as things open up.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gngmow5", "text": "Depends on what kind of retail, and what country. The US is generally over retailed and fashion malls and power centres have been impacted materially. This was happening pre-pandemic though - it just got sped up. Wekl located grocery anchored convenience type centres will continue to do just fine.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gngqbq6", "text": "It will come back just fine.\n\nAmazon will make even more money.\n\nEveryone predicting retails demise will be wrong.", "replies": [{"id": "gnhw4xy", "text": "I mostly agree. Retail will change, but don\u2019t think for a second it will go away.", "replies": [{"id": "gnixeng", "text": "Absolutely true.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gnhi4uj", "text": "I dont think retail itself will disappear but it will contract even more.  There are plenty of goods that are extremely difficult to buy online... shoes, clothes in general, groceries and the sort.  Liquor and marijuana...  I think some zoning will change and laws loosen with regard to the last two I mentioned.\n\nWhat I do see is the consolidation of stores and brands which will in turn make retail in decent to poor locations very hard to keep rented because there will be more supply than demand.  \n\nThe real issue currently is the fact that the nnn charges these tenants have to pay are, at least for the next few months, based on values and expenses from 2020 and 2019 and it takes a while for those to adjust and come down with the market.  For example, even with the pandemic in full effect, every single property I own has seen a increase in real estate taxes.\n\nWe will see what happens.  I also think the cap rate at which these properties trade at will go up because they are far from safe investments location dependent.  \n\nThe single floor straight retail properties are going to suffer and slowly disappear where development is a possibility and I think retail will end up being only a part of most properties as they are redeveloped into mixed use properties.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gnht2sv", "text": "There will be a demand for retail but it will be all about location &amp; footfall: basically the same fundamentals as before. It will be more challenging because of changes in consumer behaviour &amp; disintermediation from tech. The \u201cfuture\u201d will ultimately be a mixed use model in cities where you have retail, office and resi in one location (and some hospitality like stores on the ground floor of a building). In the suburbs the situation is less clear given lack of density of people, more drive to locations. Possibly retail parks especially if people continue to move out of the city, but not guaranteed and it is harder to do it well", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gni20c2", "text": "I think there\u2019ll be a retail culling, say 25% of centers disappear.\n\nNorth America has far too much retail square footage on a per capita basis. It\u2019s unsustainable and has already been on the decline. Retail with strong location and/or strong tenant mixes is going to be just fine, retail that is in a poor location or poorly managed is going to suffer.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gniyb51", "text": "What demographic makes the majority of the purchases in retail establishments? Who likes to go shopping? Who gets excited about going shopping with a friend or family member? \n\nThat\u2019s right, let\u2019s all say it together . . . women! Not all women, let\u2019s not stereotype, but men aren\u2019t exactly calling up their buddies because Bath &amp; Body Works is having a buy 3, get 3 free sale. Nope, instead you guys come home to a house and a woman that both smell like a cookie and don\u2019t ask questions. Why should you? *Your house and your woman smell like a cookie*. \n\nI might be the only woman on this sub to weigh in on this conversation, and would love to be corrected on that assumption, but from my vantage point, retail won\u2019t change as much as you guys think it will.  The \u201ctypes\u201d of retail will contort according to ladies\u2019 pocketbooks. Enclosed malls are considered lame. Boutique shopping is preferred, but Target and Walmart are too convenient to pass up.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gnlrm2x", "text": "I think they will largely turn into warehouse like facilities with a bodega type of small storefront. Not going to lie, shopping is a sport to me...BUT I don\u2019t love shopping brick and mortar unless A) I\u2019m on the hunt for something typically apparel or shoes for a specific thing B) Retail therapy. Otherwise I\u2019m happy to negotiate down my prices through window shopping and the chat assistant. All of that said... I DO like the ability to someday pickup relatively quickly...thank god most stores have caught on to it. Many are still pretty slow *ahem Home Depot* but definitely worth it for say...Target or Nest Buy. It should probably also be said I\u2019ve had Instacart for 7 years. \n\nIn sum I think they will look different, but hopefully the market recognizes this market opportunity to become more like condensed strip malls", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gnmcmqs", "text": "Retail broker in Phoenix. Repositioning of dilapidated malls to occur (retail-&gt;mixed use). Dying box tenants will continue to die if they don\u2019t adapt. Strongly performing traditional malls will continue to perform (look at Macerich YOY performance), grocery anchored retail centers, fitness, restaurants, etc all will succeed in a post pandemic world.  Not the death of retail, but the adaptation and evolution. There never should have been C class malls build in middle of nowhere Kansas anyway...", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gnp4thh", "text": "Retail was in decline prior to Covid, or at least certain types of retail.   I don't think it is going to disappear, but online shopping was already having a huge impact on traditional brick and mortar.   I think the best plays in retail are going to be mixed use with retail components, grocery anchored centers or retail on out-parcels to grocery anchored centers.  End-caps with drive through are your best plays on the out parcels.   There will be some opportunities to pick up some smaller strip centers that can be leased to destination tenants like sign shops, tailor, etc.. or well positioned ones at full traffic controlled intersections that can be converted to other uses.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gnwjcs7", "text": "I'm not sure exactly how it works but I think a lot of development is based on the stakeholders who live there. The general idea is to build a mixed use property and people will live there and use it. So the retail use will be deemed by those around it and who planned to make use of it, and trying to build an area up. There's usually a cookie cutter slate of necessities like groceries, bank, home goods, etc.\n\nApparently malls are slowly dying and the same with distant properties that aren't near economic zones or clusters.\n\nI think retail will stay pretty much the same. You can't beat going to the store and getting something immediately. It's probably about experience. Warehouses and deliveries are slowly taking over but people still see it as a way to go outdoors and socialize etc. They might try some kind of hybrid model. You can store stuff in a warehouse away from the store then deliver it later that day, etc. Who knows though", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "go3428l", "text": "Service based and specialty will be fine. Prices will fall in areas that struggle until someone figures out what to do with the property/space. Shifts happen, and people like to push doom on the things they can\u2019t afford.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gos17bs", "text": "I don't think retail is going away any time soon, but I believe that retail spaces will have to pivot and repurpose. We've heard about retail spaces turned into warehouse/distribution centres, community spaces, medical or dental offices, and co-working spaces. We will see a lot of creativity in the next couple of years as property managers and landlords start to think outside of the (big) box.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]