Are things back to normal after covid19? - Funds/Buildings
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[{"id": "freil9z", "text": "I don\u2019t think we\u2019ll go back to the same \u201cnormal\u201d, at least not anytime soon. We will see space and time-based distancing, frequent sanitation of shared spaces, resource/room scheduling and occupancy sensors to manage density/crowding over time, and possibly even contact management to trace back high-risk individuals for quarantining after someone gets sick.", "replies": [{"id": "frevdrk", "text": "Okay let\u2019s say the quarantine and this pandemic falls under control next week. There is still a lag before things will go back to normal (how many people are going to feel comfortable staying in a crowded hotel), people still have fear. A lot of guys with little cash reserve are going to tank, some will do okay. I think retail is a gold mine (given exceptions like convenient stores which have been slowly dying anyways)", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "frek45j", "text": "The normal you knew is no longer the normal. It'll take time to figure out any new normal for some time", "replies": [{"id": "frek5i1", "text": "Explain.", "replies": [{"id": "frepdwx", "text": "Well essentially, what was normal, is now not normal, and things to come may or may not be normal.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "frenyo0", "text": "In 18-24 months from now, yes back to normal.", "replies": [{"id": "frf1wcj", "text": "Real estate will be done more virtually. Home offers are made virtually. Often very quickly since there is a shortage of supply and same demand.   They definitely do not need that many realtors.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "freqvj6", "text": "It depends on the location.  \n\nNear a college campus in an otherwise low density area?  Probably back to normal.\n\nDowntown Manhattan where workers have to ride a subway and then go up 37 stories in an elevator to get to work?  It's going to be awhile.\n\nLocation, location, location just went exponential.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "frerlv7", "text": "Many companies have done what a few months ago was unthinkable for most.... Work from home. \n\nAlmostv all schools moved almost all classes online.\n\nThere will likely not be very much demand for new education or office construction.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fres3yc", "text": "I think that more than anything COVID accelerated a trend towards remote working, omnichannel retail, and deutbanozation. Everyone just learned in 90 days that Microsoft teams is a good product that allows people to be productive (and forced senior management to realize that working from home =\\= golf day), you can order anything you want online and the last mile supply chain generally works (you can buy something on amazon tonight and have it show up at your door tomorrow), and that the big urban centers at the end of the day don\u2019t necessarily have the high quality of life that people think they do (hello people stuck in their $3,000/mo 350 SF Manhattan studio). I think this change would\u2019ve happened naturally over the next 5-10 years but COVID just compressed that history into 6 months when all is said and done. \n\nCRE will continue to be a going concern - they aren\u2019t making any more land but they are making more people every day - but the landscape of attractive investment opportunities has shifted quickly. \n\nThat being said, once a vaccine is out people will probably forget about this in 24 months but the paradigm shift in how we live work and play will have permanently altered the landscape. \n\nMy $0.02.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fresp3n", "text": "Large office buildings will pivot towards being warehouses and will survive. The strip mall retail that depends on office workers will be in serious trouble. Neighborhood strip mall retail will undergo some changes but will come back with different businesses. Overall, I think larger CRE firms can withstand the next 1-2 years. Several smaller/individual CRE investors focusing solely on retail buildings will not do well.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "frexda0", "text": "Funds - it depends.  Most funds are still receiving their management fees from investors which is used to pay salaries of their staff.  That said, if management has decided to sit on the sidelines to wait things out, then it will get rid of the acquisitions analyst...but behind the scenes, the GP isn\u2019t immediately impacted.  \n\nValuations are unknown and promote from sales will be delayed at best and also likely reduced.  \n\nOverall impact depends on the type of Fund.\n- Office funds with Core strategy may be impacted because the \u201cstable\u201d income and credit tenants may look a lot different now.  \n\n- development is still happening because money is already in the ground.  \n\n- hotels have gotten crushed obviously\n\n- retail hurt but it was hurting before covid\n\n- other property types (multifamily, industrial, land, farm, condo, medical) is less impacted.\n\nIMO", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "frexrit", "text": "I think the way things are done generally will stay the same. There will probably be an increase in working remotely and some corresponding moves out of the most expensive urban areas. Probably some impact on office but tbd. I don\u2019t expect it will actually affect the housing markets as much as some predict. \n\nRetail will consolidate around the biggest players while local businesses go under. Omnichannel more important than ever. Dept stores may die off for good but discounters and recommence will continue to grow. \n\nSo mostly an acceleration of existing trends in my view. However, I do think this situation will create a recession. Even if the Fed prints money for the next 18 months and we get a vaccine, I don\u2019t believe the economy can just pick right back up when consumer debt will be at all-time highs, many companies bankrupt or insolvent, potentially higher vacancy rates, etc. I\u2019m holding 50% of my portfolio cash and hedging my positions bc I think the stock market is delusional.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "frf1av6", "text": "Our brokerage became smaller and it moved for at least 2 months. No clue where it is. I finally got on company site for paperless upload,  demand for commission and realized I am the only one got a transaction since April.  Moved from 400 agents to 65 agents/brokerage you are hardly at the office.  There has been a lot of layoffs from RE brokerages. VPs take cut in pay. Raised the commission bar. Brokerages which used to hire FT benefited agents are throwing them out of the door.  \n\nCan not go out all look like Jesus. People are driving hours or fly small planes get a hair cut.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "frf65wh", "text": "The whole change will revolve around personal space. For example: Open office concepts will start to transition back to more private offices. Office SF will go down as employers realize working from home saves them money and does not decrease efficiency at the rate they expected. Restaurants will increase the space between tables. Retail locations will turn in to mini fulfillment centers.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "frf9d6x", "text": "Remote work is here to stay for certain businesses. What becomes a bigger concern is if Big Tech controls all the tools and platforms. Anyone working remotely needs to make use of alternatives to the big guys. [Deskle.com](https://Deskle.com) is a great virtual whiteboard for collaboration. [Discord.com](https://Discord.com) is awesome for calls/chats. Even Proton for email. By ensuring the tech market remains competitive and open for remote work it should eventually help real estate markets. Of cource we will see a shift from urban to less dense areas because of increasing remote work opportunities. But then again most urban real estate was way overpriced. Could be a chance for smaller specialized businesses to open a physical location in major urban centers they couldn't afford in the past.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]