Question about valuation for Senior Living land.
Any suggestions on how to value 6 acres of raw land entitled for a Senior Living Development? Our Market is in the Top 15 MSAs. I've tried traditional methods, but the only things trading have been "value add" opportunities over 5 miles away. This property is adjacent to a major corridor considered to be the next "frontier" in our market. It is less than a mile two major interstates, a top hospital. My experience has been in multi-family and some retail development. All infrastructure is at the road, but not on the property. We're currently seeing anywhere from $6-$8 per foot on development costs, and I know I'll have to make an adjustment for that. 
 I apologize if this is not the place for this question, but any help will be greatly appreciated. 
[{"id": "e22gwyg", "text": "Have you tried to do a residual land value analysis? Where you take the estimated revenue, estimated development costs excluding land acquisition, and profit? This is with the assumption that the units would be sold and not rented. I'm guessing they'll be rented?", "replies": [{"id": "e22htvf", "text": "I haven't. They will be leased and will have a memory care unit. Similar, Class A, market rate, facilities are bringing anywhere from $8.25 - $9.75/ft around here. They are staying at 100% occupancy with waiting lists.  These factors are making lean towards a multi-family \"per door\" style valuation. Would my seller be leaving money on the table if I used this approach?", "replies": [{"id": "e22jfox", "text": "Senior living can be difficult, and I personally do not have a lot of experience with it. What I would do if I were you is try a few different approaches. My suggestion of a residual land value analysis won't work since they won't be selling the units, so ignore that. You can try per door or per SF. ", "replies": [{"id": "e22ny5t", "text": "Yes, that\u2019s definitely going to be a part of my strategy. Senior Living is tricky, especially this particular tract. The trouble I\u2019m having with the \u201cper door\u201d pricing is the dwelling unit count is substantially lower than approved bed count. \nThank you, again, for your suggestions. They\u2019ve helped me zoom out and look at things from different angles.", "replies": [{"id": "e22pkjf", "text": "No problem. I'm on the lending side, and work strictly with residential land development. The strategies I use to value land are:\n\n1. Residual land value analysis\n2. Value per square foot of the proposed project (based on \"as if approved\" if it has not yet been approved)\n3. Value per acre based simply on similar transactions\n4. Value per unit based on the unit count (similar to #2)\n\nThe appraisers I deal with prefer using methods #1 and #2 if they can, and resort to #3 and #4 if they are dealing with limited information.", "replies": [{"id": "e239nlq", "text": "How does one discern value per square foot with approval (#2) without consulting a comparable? ", "replies": [{"id": "e24hocq", "text": "You do consult comparables. #2, 3, and 4 are all comparison approach methods, just using different metrics. In my analyses, I will use #1 every time because I will always have a budget to work with, and I will use #2, 3, or 4 based on what my appraiser has done. \n\nI won't get a definitive answer, but I will have a good enough idea to be confident in deciding on a loan amount.", "replies": [], "depth": 7}], "depth": 6}], "depth": 5}, {"id": "e23su0t", "text": "You can evaluate per bed. ", "replies": [], "depth": 5}], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}]