How do you think tech is going to disrupt Commercial Real Estate?
For sure one thing is not going to change; Relationships.
[{"id": "hsoubfv", "text": "Technology has dramatically changed commercial real estate. Just look at office buildings; they are empty because of Zoom and little need to have employees be physically together\u2026", "replies": [{"id": "hsouiod", "text": "I mean in the processes for selling, leasing, refinancing", "replies": [{"id": "hsp0rrp", "text": "The main way of marketing is digital and has been for a while. Signs only bring in so many calls.honestly many commercial realtors forgo the expensive office and put more money into marketing in my area. Covid has had a larger impact on the market in recent years. Zillows algorithms that treated residential homes like used cars blew up in their face, but I\u2019m sure someone will perfect it and try to migrate that over for commercial flipping eventually.", "replies": [{"id": "hspeemu", "text": "I didn't see that coming with the Zestimate, but some other Ibuyers  like Opendoor and Offerpad are doing really well, but I think there is space in CRE for tech.", "replies": [{"id": "hspjzcv", "text": "https://observer.com/2021/11/zillow-shut-down-home-flipping-business-fail-housing-price-estimate/", "replies": [], "depth": 5}, {"id": "hsppnco", "text": "Have you looked at OPEN and OPAD stock prices lately?", "replies": [{"id": "hsqqbqf", "text": "Zillow halo. Horns, I guess. \n\nOPENs last quarter was not bad financially.\n\nTheir main competition exiting is a dream for them, long term. Zillow never knew why they were an ibuyer they just thought it sounded cool. Open was founded to be an ibuyer.", "replies": [], "depth": 6}], "depth": 5}, {"id": "hsqcpqs", "text": "LOL, both are down ~75% from their highs. That doesn\u2019t exactly scream doing well. Just because they haven\u2019t had a Zillow-like blowup, doesn\u2019t mean the business model works. Easy money and ever-increasing double-digit home price increases will end one day (sooner than later, probably) and we\u2019ll see what that shakes out.", "replies": [{"id": "hsrujql", "text": "That's not a metric of their actual worth. They could of been overvalued at the high and the market is just balancing.", "replies": [{"id": "hssbzw5", "text": "What then is their value of actual worth? OPEN is back at its IPO price almost 2 years after going public, and OPAD is down 50% from its IPO. You are right in the fact that they got favorable bumps coming out but a stock down 50% from its IPO is a disaster. And you\u2019re right, the market is rebalancing, it doesn\u2019t mean the market is wrong.", "replies": [{"id": "hssd5x6", "text": "Valuations come from your experience. I don't really know.", "replies": [], "depth": 8}], "depth": 7}], "depth": 6}], "depth": 5}], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "hsr3nix", "text": "Technology or covid changed that?", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hspmzy7", "text": "I think we'll see more securitization at the property level and real time trading platforms.  The amount of capital and the pump and dumps will be something to see.  \n\nI dont know if that happens with crypto or the syndicators who dont give a shit about the sec but it be too crazy for it not to happen.  We will see hype products all over get funded and the stock sky rocketing on stuff that has nothing to do with finance.\n\nSome of that may not wind up being awful.  I could see some cool projects happen that return less than market just because people like them and want to toss 100$ into the pile", "replies": [{"id": "hsq4vwh", "text": "It makes since, but at the end of the day much of real estates value is from the high barriers to entry. Over this cycle, you\u2019ve seen those barriers only increase as capital continues to consolidate into institutional platforms- which is a large driver of price increasing; i.e Blackstone can buy 2,000 apartment units while solving for a 12% IRR since it\u2019s all going into a core-plus, institutional fund. The individual buyer that\u2019s more concerned with wealth creation vs preservation never does that deal since they can beat that in many other asset classes that are way more liquid than real estate", "replies": [{"id": "hsq54de", "text": "Making real estate liquid is kind of the antithesis of investing in real estate to begin with", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "hsqr1km", "text": "That's more a result of growing wealth inequality and has slowly been happening in major international markets for over a decade.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsppkk0", "text": "\u2728metaverse\u2728", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsprwm7", "text": "Crypto based DAOs or basically crowd sourcing and fractional ownership is going to be big.", "replies": [{"id": "hspwquy", "text": "Think about all the sale/leasebacks and bts opportunities too.  Someone is going to do \"'merican coffee\" or something, put a big eagle on it and advertise it as community owned by you and your neighbors.  Set it up with long term below market leases and sell the buildings to small towns that want one at like 2 caps.  Not to mention the dev fees they can suck out.\n\nAnother good one be to buy underperforming landmark buildings.  I have no idea how its doing, but just say the sears tower or empire state building is half full.  Buy that baby and securitize it and pump social media with some turn around plan and by investing you wont only be rich but they'll renovate it and save it!   Queue getting memes of apes climbing it etc watch it IPO at like a 2 cap and trend up to like a .5 cap as everyone drives the price up to get in on the fun.\n\nThere is going to be sooooo much weird shit and insane amounts of money made", "replies": [], "depth": 2}, {"id": "hsq6lwu", "text": "Isn\u2019t that just like investing in REITs?", "replies": [{"id": "hsq7r7p", "text": "CryptoFanatics don't know what REITs are.", "replies": [{"id": "hsrc1mp", "text": "True. By tokenizing an individual property or asset though, \u201cinvestors\u201d will essentially build their own REIT, and hold/trade it in their wallet like their other NFT and coins.\n\nThe opportunity is in the fundraising for the project. Pitching ideas to this community will be another outlet to throw in with banks, PE, SBA, etc", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}, {"id": "hsrdqcc", "text": "Not really.  There's a large diffence in buying a reit spread accross a large amount of expensive properties and walking into a brewery, grabbing a beer and thinking \"I like this place, I bet they do well\" and buying a $20 stake in it on your cell phone.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsq3pua", "text": "Definitely depends on the sectors and asset classes within them. Regardless, for most I don\u2019t see tech as a threat, but an opportunity given most proptech is still in its infancy and real estate is notoriously slow to adapt and there\u2019s immediate value for operators willing to tap into what\u2019s available. Regarding the earlier comment about zoom replacing the need for office, I think that\u2019s somewhat true in the B and C space; however, demand for class A space in non-gateway markets is still  strong and the buildings that house it are trading at record pricing to very institutional buyers.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsq5fqd", "text": "You think some of the office space will begin to be used for crypto mining? I mean the infrastructure pretty much can sustain it.", "replies": [{"id": "hsq7cmr", "text": "What do you mean by this?", "replies": [{"id": "hsqawpw", "text": "The comments are basically saying how office space is essentially vacant due to remote and offsite working. So what else is there to do with the influx of vacant commercial space? Couldn\u2019t one mine crypto? Office space handles and Abundance of electricity. Just a thought", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsq5w5z", "text": "It won't", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsq6u5y", "text": "I think the best brokers will use software and data to prospect faster, optimize marketing of a property or space, generate leads from more digital sources, and streamline the entire deal process to bring all major stakeholders in faster", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsqkqtb", "text": "WeWork2", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsqrjyq", "text": "Technology relies on accurate and quality data. CRE and all property relies on obfuscating data.\n\nThe day we allow purchasers to make clear, informed decisions based on freely available pertinent information is the day the industry 'evolves'. \n\nThat's got nothing to do with tech, it's about legislation.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsr6ixy", "text": "Tech will not have the biggest impact on CRE in the mid to long term. Tech could impact small things like touchless entry, touchless elevators, touchless garage, etc. But other than that inside a property will for the most part remain the responsibility of tenants. In terms of tech disrupting processes surrounding real estate transactions, it won\u2019t be a \u201cdisruption\u201d. Could it change as new platforms are offered? Yes. There\u2019s always room to improve communication between landlord and tenants, between seller and buyer, between agents and buyers, etc. But it will likely not \u201cdisrupt\u201d the industry. \n\nThe biggest impact will be from impact investing. Sustainability is becoming a focus of regulators, investors, and tenants. Buildings in the future will likely have to meet carbon emissions criteria. New construction/development may too. This will be a huge drag on returns. If you have a large capex spend to make your building emissions compliant, new investments suddenly aren\u2019t as attractive. Existing investments don\u2019t provide the returns you underwrite initially. \n\nIn addition, tenants (specifically technology companies and activist tenants) may start to consider sustainability as a factor to what buildings they lease. Their investors may begin to require their leased space to be net-zero emissions, etc. If landlords lose a major tenant in their property because their building isn\u2019t meeting sustainability metrics, it could require large capex spend, lower rental rates to attract companies that don\u2019t have sustainability requirements, or longer downtime to replace the untenanted space. \n\nLong story short, tech might impact the industry but it will not disrupt it. Sustainability factors will likely have a huge impact over the mid to long term.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsrcwa6", "text": "I think real estate transactions are a perfect use case for blockchain. Using a basic distributed ledger with smart contracts would remove the need for title insurance, escrow accounts, etc. People wouldn\u2019t need to run around setting up wires beforehand. And it would be so much easier for counties to make real estate data more available.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsro5u9", "text": "The way we fund anything in real estate will be Crowdsourced.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hsrurip", "text": "It's a great question.\n\nThis is not new.  People need to be around people. We aren't heading to a world of pods hanging from a hook, fed by the soylent green machine.\n\nIndustrial is king at the moment and will be for another 20 - 50 years, just like retail was king from 1950 to a few years ago.\n\nCRE will change, just like the climate (always has / always will), buildings will get more green.\n\nThe only change is How.....not What.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hssevbq", "text": "Talent is the biggest loss imo. Many of the young talented professionals from younger generations are selling software instead of real estate.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]