Is commercial real estate trouble?
Is commercial real estate in trouble? I'm in the Chicagoland area with more and more large warehouse buildings being built that remain vacant.

I'm thinking that's a sure sign of trouble.

What do you think?
[{"id": "dk56b2d", "text": "Not sure about Chicago's local economy, but it seems that commercial is in a giant bubble right now. Everything is really expensive, and we aren't seeing a lot of transactions right now. ", "replies": [{"id": "dk58he4", "text": "Yes, old commercial buildings are being vacated and/but the new buildings aren't being occupied. I mean these buildings are huge and beautiful but they are empty. In fact one was just completed it's been vacated two months and another one is being built right next to it.\n\nBubble has formed as far as I can see.", "replies": [{"id": "dk5tel5", "text": "I agree. Plenty will disagree with me, and all markets are different. That is just my opinion at the moment. ", "replies": [{"id": "dk70633", "text": "But obviously somebody is paying for all that building unless bank are floating funny money again.", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}, {"id": "dkd2mvo", "text": "Where is that? Ever old warehouse I see is being gobbled up for redevelopment. I've seen over $300/sf for empty warehouses in the right areas.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "dk58xpu", "text": "I don't think you can make such broad statements. Multifamily in secondary markets, maybe. If you're depending on office cap rate compression in primary markets? Trouble... \n\nRetail? Generally fucked unless it's grocery anchored neighborhood center with about 40k sf of additional retail. Mixed use lifestyle and entertainment districts seem to do ok\n\nOffice market in non-gateway cities are still reasonable with plenty of value add opportunities. \n\nI don't do much industrial or hospitality so can't speak to these. \n\nThere are products in particular markets that need to cool off, but to say there's a national CRE bubble doesn't line up with what I see\n\n ", "replies": [{"id": "dk5jr68", "text": "Not a problem in California either. Large retail and big box stores maybe in trouble soon, but office space is reasonably occupied, not a high demand, but not in trouble. It's also not really being built out either.\n\nMost new projects are mixed use with local and niche businesses occupying retail and they are doing fantastic.\n\nRestaurants and bars are booming as well.\n\nCommercial real estate is fine you just need to do your homework prior to building.\n\nIt's also looking more and more like build to suit is what will be successful, generic buildings in business parks are undesirable to young entrepreneurs.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "dk5i2z6", "text": "LA is great. Remains one of the top for investment. Deals rising since Jan 1. Vacancy decreasing, rates up. No over construction, seems very stable with thousands of multifamily units building in the Southern California region.", "replies": [{"id": "dk5jj1q", "text": "You have any info on how much of the new Wilshire Grand center is leased at this point? ", "replies": [{"id": "dk5lpsw", "text": "Of course. You can private message me if you're serious and I will respond first thing in the morning. ", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "dkd2kvw", "text": "Depends where you are. Many neighborhoods near downtown are seeing record numbers of transactions.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "dk5cu4m", "text": "Industrial in Chicago &lt;&gt; CRE as a whole \n\n", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]