Anyone's deals failing due to rising interest rates?
US treasury 5yr is up 57 bps since beginning of the year and up 32 in Feb. Curious if anyone has seen deals fail because term sheets have been pulled or bc rates available at the beginning of the year just aren't there anymore?

I understand general consensus is cap rates won't shift much as money continues to look for a safe home in an inflationary environment. Seems likes spreads are about to get stupid narrow, though. Especially for us little guys.
[{"id": "hx78e4b", "text": "Absolutely.  When the cost of capital goes up, the purchase price initially agreed upon doesn't make sense anymore from a return perspective.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hx78ekl", "text": "Absolutely.  When the cost of capital goes up, the purchase price initially agreed upon doesn't make sense anymore from a return perspective.", "replies": [{"id": "hx7co6v", "text": "I'm curious to see if we enter a period where deal volume falls off significantly waiting for seller expectations to re-align. Or if cap rates hold and deals proceed, just with slightly less froth(frenzy?) and fewer participants.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hx7czgq", "text": "Value add deals are going to be where it's at. Stabilized assets trade on such thin margins that slight impacts to the interest rate can disrupt a deal.", "replies": [{"id": "hx7nr02", "text": "On the debt side, our 2021 multifamily originations were 80% bridge loans and 20% perm loans (typical year is 20% bridge / 80% perm). Every buyer/Borrower is used to max leverage on multifamily but tight cap rates are limiting loan proceeds. These buyers decided to lever up to the max with high-cost bridge to make slight capital improvements. As rates increase and caps widen, these buyers are going to be overlevered and forced to sell as refinancing is not feasable. All the agency lenders we are talking to expect a firesale in 1-1.5 years once these bridge loans come due. Crazy times.", "replies": [{"id": "hx8s7jh", "text": "Not to ask a redundant question, but this 80/20 switch, how systemic would you say this pattern is? Lots of folks with similar tales?", "replies": [{"id": "hx9gsnn", "text": "I can add that our shop still favored agency debt last year, but that the bridge/debt fund business we did in 2021 was more than the previous 8 years combined.", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}, {"id": "hx8t5qf", "text": "Awesome insight here.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}, {"id": "hxa0zcr", "text": "Are these bridge loan terms usually 1-year? What rates are you seeing for these vs perm? Isn\u2019t it more likely to have a capital call for some additional equity to get perm than to be forced to sell, especially when your likely selling at a loss? Sorry for all the q\u2019s. In Tokyo working on a move back to the US and have been out of the market for too long.", "replies": [{"id": "hxb2bhz", "text": "24-months + 12-month extension option is most common term I see. \n\nCapital calls are likely in that scenario, though I\u2019m curious how much success some of the new syndicators will have scraping together what\u2019s needed.", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}, {"id": "hxb1niw", "text": "My take is that a lot of the high leverage bridge debt funds will flip to pref equity to help cover the equity gap when it comes time for borrowers to refi into perm.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}, {"id": "hxr172n", "text": "Seems like the move is lock in long-term debt now at a crazy low interest rate and then pay back with inflated dollars. Short term highly leveraged debt seems unwise.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "hx7oh4a", "text": "I've had an influx of requests for rate lock term sheets for debt. We had a borrower put up a crazy (non-refundable) deposit with a lender to lock the rate for 60+ days. A friend of mine had a client put up close to $1MM to purchase a SWAP contract before closing of the property and loan. There is a panic but banks seem to be lagging a bit.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]