How baked in do you think the upcoming rate hike is?
So, currently seeing rates on the deals I am working creep up a bit. Also seeing it on the residential side. Question is, how much of that do we think is baked in hikes for Wednesday's increase? Do we think we will see another jump after Wednesday or are we going to hold fairly steady on where the rates currently stand for a couple months? Also, where is everyone pegging the hike? JPowell says he prefers 25bps but there was also a comment of this being unprecedented times so I am wondering if we are going to get a surprise 50bps.
[{"id": "i0nvtva", "text": "I think it is baked in; it had better be for my own sake. My amateur take is that the degree of quantitative tightening will actually be more impactful.\n\nThese are also very uncertain times with the geopolitical environment. The economic destruction currently occurring from high energy &amp; shipping prices is very real. I would expect them to move cautiously as we see if the situation is resolved in the next month, improves, or conflict spreads.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "i0nwe5p", "text": "Question is what's the long term play of the USA to get out of this constant \"unprecedented times\" granted its called for, but there has to be some kind of Financial habit change.\n\nit got hot to fast.....cool down low and slow or extreme.\n\nTime will tell.\n\nanyone who has a crystal ball for the future please divulge.....", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "i0ojlgu", "text": "It\u2019s not \u201cbaked in\u201d, nor could it be.\n\nExample: If I decided I wanted to sell my house last month when interest rates were lower, I qualified for more loan. Next month that may not be the case, that increases inventory. That effect compounds, especially in places that are building like mad and inflation eating the shit out of profit margins.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "i0olfc2", "text": "Chicago mercantile exchange has a 98% chance of a rate hike this Wednesday, and a 60% chance of a 50 bps hike in May and a 50% chance of another 25 Bo hike in June and a 50% chance of another 25 bps hike in July. So by September there is a 99% chance that rates will be over 1.25%. \n\nThis is only the consensus of traders who have billions on the line though, if you think differently you could bet against them.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "i0oscbu", "text": "1000% baked in.\n\n2 or three more hikes after that. \n\nToo hard to say what to expect Q3 and Q4", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]