Next real estate billionaires
Do you think real estate has the same opportunities to create billionaires as the past (ex. Donald Bren, Stephen Ross, Hines, Jonathan Grey, etc.)?
[{"id": "fghtige", "text": "There is a lot of competition to make another billionaire. I think it will produce 1000s of millionaires. The largest pieces of real estate will join funds like reits or crowdfunding. Do you think there will be more billionaires? Is this a good or bad thing?", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fghv21h", "text": "The industry is not the limiting factor in becoming a billionaire. What is your personal risk tolerance to triple your net worth in 25 years when you have $334MM of equity?", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fghv5k4", "text": "Chiming in. I think yes, there are still huge plots of land for cheap in places like Texas. \n\nPlaces like Austin still have homes for $200k. In ten to fifteen years these houses will be worth $1M. \n\nThere are tons of cities in the south (Phoenix) that are just now becoming noticed for being way better than our most popular cities nowadays.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fghx7x3", "text": "Skeptic says no. Too many huge asset management companies in RE now. You can still build a decent net worth, but doubt many new billionaires from RE.", "replies": [{"id": "fghxfo0", "text": "Yea that's what I was thinking. The jig is up now.", "replies": [{"id": "fgi092h", "text": "The feds have flooded the market with capital. When my tertiary market is getting hit up by institutional dollars and coastal asset managers seeking returns, there is no more value add plays. The good properties are gobbled up. We are stuck with small independent business properties. Not saying you can\u2019t make a living, but it isn\u2019t what it was prior to even 2010.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fgidlyh", "text": "billionaire from real estate alone.  no.  saturation, too many big boys playing, especially in major markets.  but that's fine.  I'll take my few million and smile.  there's enough out there to make a lot of people very rich but not billionaire rich.   but who really wants to become one? \ud83d\ude26", "replies": [{"id": "fgimtcg", "text": "No necessarily desire. Just wondering if it's even possible anymore.", "replies": [{"id": "fgiz4p1", "text": "very difficult is the answer.  that's just my opinion.   ive been at it for 15 yrs pretty much on my own, 12 hour work days for 12 years,  and have amassed a pretty sizable portfolio mostly low income housing. if I had deeper pockets my investment choices would be different.  so when you start from scratch its extremely unlikely...\nif I sold everything I own and magically made all the debt on it disappear, and paid off all my partners, id still be way short of a billion.   \nback in the 80s it was possible to literally google up housing and real estate for pennies even in NYC which is how some families built billion dollar fortunes.   but those days are long gone, the city is over priced, over saturated....", "replies": [{"id": "fgiz86z", "text": "gobble not google", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fgiw2oo", "text": "Wouldn't turn it down tho", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fgif45t", "text": "Absolutely but not by following the crowd. It\u2019s going to be someone who takes a few brave moonshot bets and gets lucky.", "replies": [{"id": "fgjd6w3", "text": "Yeah just replied elsewhere that someone should buy all the dead malls. It may take decades but sooner or later all that space will have found its new purpose and be worth gajillions.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fgiihxg", "text": "There are a lot of people saying this isn't possible. I disagree. It's extremely difficult (regardless of what market you become a billionaire in) but it's possible. The way to do it though is to be a developer. Investing in real estate will make you rich but if you want to be a billionaire you have to be a developer. It also doesn't hurt to be smart and have great connections.\n\nJorge Perez (in Miami) is a billionaire developer. He started in tax-credit apartments.  David Siegel is worth 940 Million (I think he was a billionaire before the downturn), he develops timeshares. There's no reason new billionaires can't be made - it's risk tolerance and finding a niche that gets you a step over the competition.", "replies": [{"id": "fgik85b", "text": "https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/12/21/us-population-growth-hits-80-year-low-capping-off-a-year-of-demographic-stagnation/\n\nYou develop because there is demand. Demand flattens when the population stops growing. There's a lot of empty buildings out there.", "replies": [{"id": "fgilydb", "text": "Demand is a tricky thing... No one knew they needed an iphone until Apple told them they did. Buildings don't last forever; populations shift locations; demographics change; peoples' ideas of where the optimum place to live change. 20 years ago, suburbs were all the rage. Now it's urban living (live, work, play). \n\nAdditionally, hundreds of thousands of people are pulled from poverty every day. People need a place to live when they can make it out of favelas. The question was if there was the ability to become a billionaire with real estate, not specific to the US... The US market is something else - but emerging markets and other countries need housing and offices too. Look at the building boom that has happened in the middle east. South America is ripe, particularly as they move away from a more restrictive government (i.e. Chile, Brazil). Eventually Venezuela will be back in play (might be 20 years but still...).\n\nI think opportunity exists everywhere. Get rich in your niche!", "replies": [{"id": "fginqsw", "text": "Reminds with of a convo I had with an developer whose family was originally from Africa (like he's first generation American). Says he's learning the development game here as far as how it works then taking his skills to his home country.", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}, {"id": "fgioc68", "text": "If y'all want to bring money into San Antonio, let me know.\n\nWe're expecting to double in population in 40 years, and Austin is similar.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}, {"id": "fgiyimx", "text": "This is influenced by location though, is it not? Just because there are X people in the USA doesn't mean there need to be X living quarters. The distribution is neither equal nor consistent.", "replies": [{"id": "fgj2vki", "text": "The point was that real estate won't print real estate billionaires over the next few decades like it had in the prior few decades. There's always pockets of demand, but the universal demand in the USA has ended, making capital access to grow large quickly much harder as there is more competition to seek the yields of the past. The competition will skew towards large corporations with the firepower to seek out and find those yields, rather than the individual investor.", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fgiipdz", "text": "Yes to opportunities to create more billionaires in RE. No to \u201cthe same opportunity\u201d. \n\nFundamentally, real estate went from a fringe asset class to a mainstream \u201calternative asset\u201d. Caps rates compressed + rent revenues (as a % of gdp) went up. This was the primary driver of the majority of wealth creation through the cycles for those guys. IE the same $100k income stream in 1970 is worth so much more today than what today\u2019s $100k income stream will\nBe worth in 50 years. IMO. \n\nThe last guy you mention, Jonathan Grey, made his money through carried interest - that door is still wide open. But his approach is entirely different than the others on your list. It\u2019s an analogue to any standard PE/Hedge fund structure.", "replies": [{"id": "fgio3ou", "text": "What opportunities do you see in the future? This is all speculation just for fun.", "replies": [{"id": "fgjd3o1", "text": "Someone with deep pockets should acquire ever dead mall in the US. Sooner or later someone will hit on the right going-forward use for all that space and it'll be worth an unfathomable amount.", "replies": [{"id": "fh6xhdw", "text": "We\u2019ve bought a ton of enclosed malls over the past 5 years. If you go in at the right price they can make sense and generate fantastic returns. Had to buy all cash though financing is a bitch.", "replies": [{"id": "fhe8b9a", "text": "Interesting. Not surprised about the financing...", "replies": [], "depth": 5}], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}, {"id": "fh6xoew", "text": "Too many to type. But there\u2019s pockets of opportunity everywhere: iterations of existing business models. Existing buildings being up zoned and redeveloping them. Affordable housing. Riding consumption preference changes. Etc. \n\nInternational is another great area. \n\nStill hungover so excuse the poor clarity here. GL!", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fimdexc", "text": "So basically if you still wanna get rich, real estate is where we should be?", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]