Local Grocers in Rural Markets
I'm looking at buying a grocer anchored center where the regional grocer is closing.  It's unlikely a regional/national chain would backfill the space due to the very low population (13,000 in 5 miles in the Southeast).  The regional grocer is currently doing $6M/year in sales. 

My question is does that level of sales ($6M) have value for a local grocer?  Am I likely to find a tenant for that space, albeit at a lower rent than is being paid by the regional.  

I have a ton of experience with strip centers/redevelopment.  Just none with grocers.
[{"id": "fyotz6b", "text": "Whats the condition of the center?\n\nHow much $$$ would you have to pour in to bring it up to par?", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fyp42fe", "text": "We sell these centers, regularly. In the southeast. Let\u2019s talk. Shoot me a message", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fypcssf", "text": "how big is the grocer space? it will help you to do some analysis comparing the sales PSF of that location vs grocers in similar markets.", "replies": [{"id": "fyr32xs", "text": "25,000 sft.  Sales are about $250/sft.  \n\nI have no idea if good or bad.", "replies": [{"id": "fyrabcx", "text": "Typically you\u2019ll see bigger grocers (Kroger, Food Lion, etc.) do sales in the $400 range, if it is a successful location and not a major metro. These numbers will likely be much higher in major US cities. \n\nNow i don\u2019t think that means your location is not going to work for a grocer, but it would\u2019ve been ideal to hear a better number. \n\nIf I were you, i\u2019d go on Loopnet and search sales and lease listings for similar centers in similar markets. You can just hone in on cities with similar demographics in the same state and look until you find a comparable property. Then just call the listed brokers on all of them and ask them for some data points (avg sales for comparable grocers, market rent, average landlord TI costs, etc.). you\u2019ll be surprised how open they can be - in my experience they are usually happy to discuss their craft if they have a few minutes to spare. \n\nHopefully this exercise can get you some or the data you need.", "replies": [], "depth": 3}, {"id": "fyrdseq", "text": "Those sales are not that good compared to nationals. It\u2019s usually extremely difficult and expensive to back fill a grocer", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fyrhehx", "text": "I\u2019m in a bigger metro and see a lot of grocery space going to medical uses or gyms. You don\u2019t have the population to support a gym but the medical thing works well - one story, plenty of parking. Some poorer areas have them reused as indoor flea markets.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]