How real estate today is like the NBA from the 90s
The NBA in the 1990s saw the line begin to blur between different positions. Magic Johnson famously played "all 5 positions". Big men began to shoot more jumpshots and handle the ball up the court. Combo guards were superstars. Fast forward 20 years, and the kids who grew up watching this are today's stars, and the NBA is almost completely positionless.

Today's commercial real estate market feels like that first glimpse of a "positionless" future. Coworking, co-living, flex space everywhere, Airbnb as the most dominant hospitality brand...

Where will this trend take us in 10-20 years? Who will dominate? What types of players will we see that aren't prevalent today?

Credit: This is inspired by a [recent blog post](https://www.stacksource.com/blog/todays-commercial-real-estate-is-the-nba-of-the-1990s) by a colleague.
[{"id": "gi8xg90", "text": "I've been an office broker for 22 years.  I don't anticipate a massive upheaval after this all normalizes.  C19 created its own cycle, and at the end of the day more people will be working in more flexible places and their homes...but each employee will need considerable more space in that office, which (over time), will be a wash.  Somebody will come up with a better term than de-densification...but that's the next step.\n\nI like you simile, but every cycle I've been through since the late 90s has promised  some massive sea change, and has always returned to the norm.", "replies": [{"id": "gi9gewi", "text": "Why would a tenant need more space? If all my employees are vaccinated and they want to work from home part time, I\u2019ll just run an A&amp;B rotation. I don\u2019t see how this doesn\u2019t end with some sort of more flexibility for office space users and a contraction in their space needs", "replies": [{"id": "gi9rgid", "text": "I acknowledged flexibility, and that this will take time.  People are already wanting to go back to work in their spaces, and safety will be paramount.  The average office employee is going to need more walls/dividers, more private offices, more break rooms, more SMALL conference rooms with tech.  Less open cubicles, less flex shared areas.  I am sure as fuck not going to share a desk with a shift running a/b as you're proposing.  Not as an office worker.  Office space isn't working at subway.", "replies": [{"id": "gi9rr8q", "text": "And apologies in advance.  I swear a lot.  By no means does that mitigate the importance of your question, or mean I want to pick some sort of online fight.", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "giaj4kn", "text": "Surprise of the century: office broker for 22 years doesn\u2019t anticipate disruption to office sector. \n\nYour post reads more like wishful thinking. I\u2019m not positing anything one way or another, but I think your reasoning for a return to normalcy for the office sector is optimistic at best.\n\n\u201cThings haven\u2019t changed in the past, so they won\u2019t change in the future.\u201d\n\nRemind me to drop off my VHS rental at the local blockbuster. \n\nSince I\u2019m already playing devil\u2019s advocate, I may ad well add that the office sector has historically been more resistant to technological disruption than, say, B&amp;M retail. However, with a cultural shift that came of stay-at-home orders, a renewed desire and tolerance for WFM, and massively improved technology for this change in consumer behavior, I think it\u2019s time to consider the POSSIBILITY that office will, too, start looking drastically different. Don\u2019t be a dinosaur, the POSSIBILITY certainly there.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gi8zmm6", "text": "Read your colleague\u2019s article. It was *cute*. I\u2019d give it a B+ for originality if it was a paper written in a Commercial Real Estate 101 course a year ago. \n\nChanges to city planning and zoning are what drive more mixed use development, not CRE developers talented at different positions on the court. \n\nBesides, mixed use development has been a key part of CRE for the past 130 years.", "replies": [{"id": "gi9tzjg", "text": "I don't think enough people share your insight into zoning codes. Any true \"revolutionary\" market shift is going to run headlong into zoning issues. Codes always seem to be 5-10 years behind on where the market could be. Even if office space vacancies tripled by next year, it'd be a few years before the local municipality could figure out how the hell to let owners repurpose those buildings.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gi9g7dm", "text": "I\u2019m here for r/nba crossover", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gi9minx", "text": "\"The more things change the more they stay the same.\"", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gi9t7ng", "text": "Interesting stuff.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "giabzy4", "text": "Author and CRE broker Blaine Strickland's second book \"Adapt\" does a good job of looking to the future of CRE, specifically the role of the broker in a disruptive industry time - \nhttps://smile.amazon.com/dp/B085GHVSC4/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_WWx9FbCZHSMV1", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]