Is there a Decline in new Construction/ retrofit work?
I work for a company that is somewhat linked to New Construction and Retrofit work. After speaking with my boss about financials, he said there was a major decline in future sold work. A number close to 50% or so... Is anyone in the commercial space seeing a similar decline? I would imagine covid having ramifications for the commercial construction industry.
[{"id": "gfqduov", "text": "This is a blended question because new construction vs retrofit work are entirely different animals. I\u2019ve yet to see anyone, ever, who thinks retrofitting a building is a great way to make a cash cow. Retrofit work is demanded, not elected, by your local authority. \n\nAddressing new construction, across the table, all forms of CRE are figuring out what they need to build in the next 2-5 years. The general thought I\u2019ve heard expressed is that we need to figure out how to use what we have versus funding construction of new CRE. For example, can we use vacant retail space as on time delivery staging areas vs building new warehouses?", "replies": [{"id": "gfqep6v", "text": "I see I did hear about amazon wanting to get into  the old sears buildings.", "replies": [{"id": "gfqf34i", "text": "You should investigate this more. Moms in Montana are KILLING IT  staging Amazon packages in their garages.", "replies": [{"id": "gfqfpzg", "text": "In there Garage!?", "replies": [{"id": "gfqgjcb", "text": "And why is that a problem?", "replies": [{"id": "gfqijx0", "text": "I didn\u2019t say it was.. I\u2019m just surprised it\u2019s an option. Can one rent out a commercial space in a neighborhood and do the same thing?", "replies": [{"id": "gfqm1jg", "text": "At home biz my friend", "replies": [{"id": "gfqn8e6", "text": "Are they doing delivery too or just managing staging?", "replies": [{"id": "gfqolqn", "text": "They just manage staging, packaging.", "replies": [{"id": "gfqppj9", "text": "Wow...  I\u2019m going to have to look into this but living in Southern California makes me wonder if I\u2019m already too late", "replies": [{"id": "gfqqk1z", "text": "I highly doubt it. It\u2019s a relatively easy biz to break into.", "replies": [{"id": "gfqx853", "text": "I\u2019m having my girlfriend look into this. But she is having trouble finding it but she is finding how to start your own delivery business", "replies": [{"id": "gfverhl", "text": "States without sales tax (Montana, New Hampshire, &amp; Oregon) are where this cottage industry is really exploding. \n\nLet\u2019s say I discover an unbelievable deal on an item online, maybe the price is $75 vs $300 normal sales price. I immediately post the item for sale on Amazon for $200. \n\nStill a good deal, right? I get 10 people wanting the product for $200, so then I order 10 products at $75 to be shipped to my \u201cfaux address\u201d at Joann\u2019s Shipping R Us in Montana so I don\u2019t have to pay sales tax. My purchased products arrive, are repackaged according to Amazon standards by Joann and her friendly team, then picked up and shipped to the person that purchased the item on Amazon for $200 bucks. \n\nI just made $1250 bucks sitting on my couch.", "replies": [], "depth": 13}], "depth": 12}], "depth": 11}], "depth": 10}], "depth": 9}], "depth": 8}], "depth": 7}], "depth": 6}], "depth": 5}], "depth": 4}, {"id": "gfuaw1i", "text": "I did some research but can\u2019t find anything on this. Do you have a link by chance?", "replies": [{"id": "gfuhkm2", "text": "You'll enjoy this:\n\nhttps://www.theverge.com/2019/11/14/20961523/amazon-walmart-target-package-delivery-sales-tax-montana-roundup", "replies": [], "depth": 5}], "depth": 4}, {"id": "gfuhhfu", "text": "Here's an article about this y'all might like:\n\nhttps://www.theverge.com/2019/11/14/20961523/amazon-walmart-target-package-delivery-sales-tax-montana-roundup\n\nA big part of it is the tax structure in Montana. It won't work most places.", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gfqj9ad", "text": "I'm a PM in CR, my experience through this year and projections into 2021 I'm seeing maybe a 10% drop in investments for a major banking client. Mostly seems to be expense work that is dropping off, or work that's just is not feasible to continue in a pandemic environment. Large admin properties are big tax break incentives so I foresee capital investments will stay somewhat strong and ride the storm. Empty properties is actually pushing forward some major renovations in admin spaces that were otherwise in question because of business impacts.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gfqnpil", "text": "What asset class? Industrial - booming. Office build-outs - dead, unless it\u2019s life science.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gg3uabp", "text": "The figures I've seen for starts on a SF or unit basis are showing solid decline.  Not 50%, but that number wouldn't surprise me as an outlier based on metro, property type, or building type (hi-rise vs mid-rise).  If you were to tell me that you focused on MF in the northeast (especially New York), that figure wouldn't make me blink.  But if you were in Texas, I'd be surprised.  \n\nWhich is to say that geography matters, and there's going to be firms that get hit more and less, but that figure isn't out of the question for others, again, based on the numbers I have access to.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]