Why COVID-19 Isn’t a Repeat of 2008
[{"id": "fmftxyn", "text": "yeah,   restaurants and hotels were weak before,  they'll be weak after...  but if the expectation is office space will stay strong because it was strong before the shutdown,  I think there's going to be some surprises in store..\n\nthis will be deep, and from what we're seeing in the SBA, PPE, Specific industry bailouts etc..  it's too little to save most jobs - without some serious awakening from the fed,   we're looking at massive layoffs for a while and likely they'll really hit their stride when the requirements for what programs are out there have run out the clock....\n\nCMBS might hold less of the paper but asset values are still pegged to what buyers are willing to offer and a deep recession can't cover that fact\n\nI know I'm being pessimistic but government's response hasn't done much to convince me worst case scenario isn't where we're headed", "replies": [{"id": "fmfvhe8", "text": "I don't think you're being pessimmistic.  We can only look forward to the Aunt Jemima treatment.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fmfzkk0", "text": "I have to say I disagree. There nothing fundamentally wrong that's long term. People have to stay home until the virus passes and there are treatments that's are working. Fact is the vast majority of people won't have any worse issues than the flu. Once the worst has passed, testing is available and quick, and the media isn't effective scaring everyone things will go reasonably back to normal. Assuming that doesn't take any longer than like 120 days we'll be fine. Things will be different. Offices will realize people actually will work from home and not all small restaurants and bars will make it through but we'll be better when it's all done.\n\nEdit: posted before I was done.", "replies": [{"id": "fmg16n1", "text": "This change people\u2019s behavior for a while, not just the fear of going to restaurants/theaters but the unemployment number will continue to rise. A double digit percentage of these bars/restaurants/retail won\u2019t open back up. This will increase vacancy and put downward pressure on rental rates. \n\nI can\u2019t forecast the downside but for the next couple of years CRE will be on a downward trend.", "replies": [{"id": "fmj39s3", "text": "We're all entitled to our opinions because no one really knows. No history that's been repeated. We'll have to see. My opinion is that fundamentals were strong before. Any businesses lost will create room for something else to grow in its place. People aren't going to eat less and clearly they're not drinking less. Pent up demand won't offset all the losses but will help. The stock market will recover as the fear fades but some of that fear will remain. We'll be paying our way out of this for a while either way.", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}, {"id": "fmg9ew4", "text": "not that I don't want to agree.  I think from the perspective of people I know,  their layoffs are not temporary.   Granted,  that's anecdotal  but I haven't seen anything to reinforce the idea of a strong rebound in employment.\n\nsome of the lost business is lost (not simply pent up demand) and that echo in the market will impact other spending and so on and so on...\n\n30% unemployment even if it rebounds to 75% is still a 100% increase in unemployment from January and looks very similar to 2008,  not to mention the complete and total loss of revenue through 2 quarters essentially...  this is going to leave a mark", "replies": [], "depth": 3}, {"id": "fmhwbsr", "text": "My brothers pharmaceutical company is thinking about only working from home indefinitely. Because it saves money in both rent, utilities  and insurance. So I definitely think things are going g to change once this is over", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}, {"id": "fmg4r8e", "text": "share most of your opinion.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}]