Who do you think will be the most active Tenants in 2021?
My first guess would be Urgent Care's but I've gotten countless responses saying "they are to busy due to Covid-19." I will be following up with them since it is only a matter of time but would like to hear others opinions.
[{"id": "gikzkxn", "text": "I think restaurants will be the most active.  Plenty of locations will fail due to inability to open or pivot to carryout/outdoor dining.  Other restaurant owners were able to find success in 2020 while also benefitting from PPP funds and rent concessions.  These guys are sitting on lots of cash and are going to be on the prowl for great locations where the previous operator failed.  They can expand with little investment in upfit or equipment, while also negotiating hard on rent.  With some return to normal this summer, the restaurant churn will likely wind down at then end of the year.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gil5toh", "text": "Where I am right now it's Realtors. They are insanely busy with people relocating and they are snatching up the nice retail space that is being abandoned by \"normal\" retail tenants.", "replies": [{"id": "gil9uul", "text": "Are you saying people turning storefronts into offices?", "replies": [{"id": "gila132", "text": "Depending on what your local zoning code is, Realtors can be considered office or retail.", "replies": [{"id": "gilazf1", "text": "Oh sorry - now I understand what you're saying.", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gipefyj", "text": "I'm wondering if you mean office, retail, or industrial, and I'm wondering if you mean foot traffic/use or adding space.\n\nBetween the three, it's looking pretty obvious that industrial will take the cake by pretty much any measure in '21 and it'll be lead by retailers adding logistics capacity and 3PLs, for both usage and added space.\n\nRetail is going to suffer, obviously, but necessity-based will suffer less.  Grocery, pharmacy, dollar stores, Mall-Wart, your source for cheap plastic crap, whatever.  Experiential will probably experience a resurgence once the vaccine gets widespread distribution.  We're a ways out from that, but to my understanding Planet Fitness took the most retail space every year since like 2013.  Yes, people have bought a ton of Pelotons, but that's mostly for the richies.  Most people don't have space for that crap.  And PF aside, things like axe throwing and trampoline parks took a ton of space.  Some of those places probably shut down, gone for good, but I don't think the appetite for experiential retailers went away, just the ability to visit them.  Hopefully on the other side of a vaccine that desire returns.  So I think it very possible that experiential gets a big boost a little later in the year.\n\nOffice is in the most trouble, in my opinion.  I know, I know, a lot of people (executives especially, in my experience) are champing at the bit to get back in the office, but I think quite a lot of white collar workers are pretty eager to stay put at home.  Perhaps I'm coloring this with my own interpretation, because I have no desire to go back to commuting.  But I think that a lot more work from home is in the future.\n\nNow I should be clear that this means a lot more *hours* worked at home, not necessarily workers permanently at home, which is to say that offices will still be necessary and most workers will still go to them most weeks and probably every month.  But you have to figure that companies will downsize the space they use and that hoteling and hotdesking are going to be the wave of the future.  I hated that idea when I went into the office everyday, but if I'm only going in two days a week, who gives a shit.  \n\nAnyway, that means that really any traditional sector is going to drop space.  Consultants, marketing, tech, accounting, financial firms.  Maybe not lawyers, actually, but office will almost certainly show more negative absorption in 2021. \n\nSo who benefits?  Well, I hate to say it, but.... WeWork.  Now there's enough WeWork clones out there that WeWork isn't the only game in town anymore, and the ones that landlords are putting together are the most intriguing (I know Tishman has one, I think CBRE might too).  But the ability to expand and contract space quickly, on as little as a week-to-week basis is going to be valuable for firms.  But if I was an office landlord, I'd be pretty nervous right now.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "gn29187", "text": "I would say that the industrial tenants may be one of the strongest in commercial real estate in the near future. With the huge demand for online shopping during COVID, there has been an increase in interest in warehouses and distribution centres, and I expect this trend to continue in the near future.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]