CRE Modeling Question: Lease Up Time
Hey guys, so I am working on a model where a single tenant that occupied 35% of the NRSF just moved out. Its an office property in in a CBD but there has been a lot of tenants moving out of the area and there has been a stagnant 15% vacancy for the past 5 years or so.

What data would you guys look at to estimate lease up time? I'm working on Argus right now and just making all the vacant space Reabsorb and then fiddling with the lease up rate....annually, quarterly...etc. I imagine historical vacancy and lease up time for the specific property, provided by the owner, would be the best resource, but I do not have that information.
[{"id": "djoqvne", "text": "Can you find net absorption rates from Co Star or another source?", "replies": [{"id": "djoshtj", "text": "Yes, for the market, but how would you apply that to a single property?", "replies": [{"id": "djotzot", "text": "You'd be better served looking at net absorption as a percentage of inventory. Should be able to narrow it down to office, class (A,B?), and submarket. Should give you an indication as to at what rate your subject market has been absorbing office SF. Q/Q for as many periods as CoStar will report. Look at annual changes to identify anything structural. Market analysis is nuanced, but this ought to point you in the right direction. ", "replies": [{"id": "djowvoh", "text": "Ah ok, thoughtful response. Thank you. I guess I could roughly apply the net absorption rate for the property's given submarket and class, say 5% per yr of NRSF for the property. ", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}, {"id": "djp7xp7", "text": "What percentage of total inventory is your property? Apply that share to the market's net absorption.\n\n[https://www.irem.org/education/learning-toolbox/calculating-absorption](https://www.irem.org/education/learning-toolbox/calculating-absorption)", "replies": [{"id": "djrxfol", "text": "The building's percentage of class B office space inventory is 4.30%. The market has leased up an additional 82,801 SF per year (average), with a median 34,944 SF per year, over 10 years.\n\nI guess, applying the market share to the average, you could say absorption for the single property should occur at roughly 3,560 SF per year?\n\nWhat if the property just lost 2 large tenants and the property is like 50% occupied? Could you assume a higher than average absorption rate for the property given the sheer amount of space (its more flexible for larger tenants to find and work with space that they can customize how they want) ? ", "replies": [], "depth": 4}], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "djpay1n", "text": "It's a lot more art than science. How big is the building? How does the building show against its comp set?", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]