JLL : Over 30 percent of U.S. office market will be flexible by 2030 - CRE Herald
[{"id": "enmah09", "text": "\"According to JLL\u2019s latest research, U.S. office market has grown an average of 23 percent each year since 2010. In 2018 alone, it made up for nearly two-thirds of the country\u2019s office market occupancy gains.\"\n\nI think you meant to say the flexible office market has grown by an average of 23% each year. \n\nAlso, that 30% number is bold to say the least. That would mean that the most dense markets would have to be a majority co-working since once you get out of the Top 10 markets, its seen minimal penetration. Not to mention that there might not even be enough rollover in the larger markets over the next 10 years for coworking to to soak up a majority. Additionally, that would also mean we'd see multiple coworking operators per building, which to my knowledge (although limited I will admit) is difficult since WeWork basically swats that idea down when it comes up.\n\nI agree we have not seen the flexible office ceiling yet, but 30 percent of the US market smells like straight bullshit.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "envekdi", "text": "I think these articles are really useful in looking at current trends (despite them talking about a trend that will last 10 years) but when you look at what the RE market is now and what it was 10 years ago, so much has happened and I'm reluctant to take any estimate that goes back even that far because of the pace of technology and innovation even a slow moving and laggish industry like CRE is moving at accelerated and unprecedented paces and holding different measures. Look at this bull market that has been much longer than usual. Yes, if nothing else changes and new innovation does not come along, flex space will be a large percentage (or any other trend; Air bnb office space I'm predicting it here and now folks if it aint already here). But with the compounding effects of technology and information at this time in history will throw any long term projection in the trash. Excited to see the metrics as they come true and what people have said like this in past and how it actually turned out would be a great piece of reading as well.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]