Moody's Analytics Economic Forecasting
Hi everyone. I'm new to Moody's Analytics. For people who have been using Moody's Analytics for a while, how accurate is their forecasting? Given current circumstances of COVID-19, do you make any of your own assumptions when you look at their data and do analysis based on it? If so, what are your strategies of making those assumptions? Thank you!
[{"id": "fvgs4mh", "text": "All forecasts should be questioned. Moody is a first class organization, but was caught on its heals during the 08/09 crisis. Remember it is a for-profit organization. That being said, great resource for starting to ask the right questions. Should you make a decision solely on a Moody forecast? No, but it does provide another sliver of support. \n\nI am a financial analyst and their credit analysis is second to none. They have a wide market analysis both corporate and sovereigns. It keeps me cued Into industry micro and economic macro! Great writing and data visualization also!", "replies": [{"id": "fvnvv6y", "text": "Generally agree.  I personally prefer Moody's forecasting to some other options out there, but forecasting is always a bit of a crapshoot, and obviously everyone is scrambling at the moment.  As with any forecasting tool they're pretty reliant on demos and history, so if there's a demo doing something it didn't used to (see 65+ worker participation rate pre-covid or 15-44 birth rate) then they're limited on catching that and that's where you can outsmart the forecast.  But its a good general guide.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "fvi753b", "text": "We tested it and it was awful compared to costar or local brokerages. The rents and vacancy rates were completely incorrect.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]