CMBS Delinquency Rate at Post-Recession Low
[{"id": "dzwdxrg", "text": "Only thing we're seeing are portfolio hiccups where the CCRs carve out the trophy assets to sell off and reposition or firesale the problem assets. ", "replies": [{"id": "dzwp19p", "text": "I've seen the term CCR used on Reddit.\n\nI've officially seen it all.\n\nBut yeah, I personally feel that CMBS delinquency is a horrible metric. It's extremely laggy, and gives no representation of how much product is actively defaulting *this month*. You could theoretically have a ton of new CMBS 2.0/3.0 issuance, and the delinquency rate will drop because your denominator got bigger. It doesn't change the fact the same CMBS 1.0 assets are still in their same shitty situation. \n\nOn the flipside, market conditions can improve, but servicers will hold on to defaulted loans/REO property in order to collect fees and/or continue rehabbing the assets. Fewer loans may be actively defaulting, but the delinquency rate will have remained the same if no new issuance occurred.", "replies": [{"id": "e039tmj", "text": "Completely agree - an asset I'm listing now is one I've been tracking for 2+ years now, out from a portfolio the special servicer has been happy to drag their feet on while they rip out fees left and right.\n\nThe delinquency rate is just a headline that boosts already overenthusiastic sentiments about the market - because people don't really think about what it means.\n\nIt's all the maturities in the next few years that have me excited. ", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}]