Negotiating prices for land and some zoning questions
I'm set on buying a piece of land that is along a major arterial in a rapidly growing area. It's been on the market for 2 years now and hasn't sold so does this mean I can negotiate a deal and if so, how much lower (% wise) should I offer relative to the offer price?

It is currently zoned residential, however, I am sure it can be re-zoned to commercial. My question is how realistic is this expectation? What's the process of getting land re-zoned to commercial use? I'm sure it's happened before. Sleepy roads turn to bustling highways over time so the need for commercial space to accommodate a rapidly growing community is expected but what does that process entail and what can I do to steer the process in that direction?
[{"id": "d7xeupb", "text": "I'm not a land expert but 2 years isn't that long for land to sit.  I doubt you will get,a discount.  Regarding getting the zoning changed you need to talk to your city planning office.  Do some research.  Every city is different.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "d7xgyod", "text": "What state are in you looking to get re-zoned?", "replies": [{"id": "d7xlbos", "text": "I'm in Southern CA", "replies": [{"id": "d84770k", "text": "In California there could be a lot to a rezone.  You may want to start at the city, check in with the Planning Director and see if it is even feasible.  This will give you a good idea on the time it will take to rezone the property (for a simple one, I would plan for 6-12 months).  You will also need to know if what you are proposing will trigger CEQA.  If that is the case you need to prepare for a longer process.\n\nBecause of the length of time, you will also need to either negotiate for a longer escrow (so that you can accomplish the rezone) or close and take the risk. ", "replies": [], "depth": 3}], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "d7xl8pn", "text": "As stated by others re-zoning is done through the city. Most cities or towns of a certain size will have at least a planning commission and a city council you'll have to present to and have approval from. Where I'm from you'll also need to go through a zoning commission. This is done by presenting a plan for the site such as big box vs strip center vs whatever else you may be thinking, how many SF, how much parking and at least here you need to have architectural, landscape and a full site plan. \n\nNot sure about the other question, sorry!\n\nGood luck!", "replies": [{"id": "d7z7l4z", "text": "The area is far too undeveloped to realistically present a plan for a shopping center or any commercial development for that matter. However, the growth this area has experienced over the last ten years indicates that these parcels have potential. There has already been 350 homes built in the area, 171 more on the way and another 500 in the works. Plus there're engineering proposals going around that the road it's on is an alternative route for a new freeway that's coming in within the next five years. So based on previous observations and current forecast, it looks promising to me, however when the time comes for me to approach the city with plans, I'll definitely be ready.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "d7xni18", "text": "Always try to get a discount.\n\n", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "d7xx2tb", "text": "The main question is will your offer be subject to a zoning contingency or not? If not, the price can be lower than if it is.", "replies": [{"id": "d7z7ohr", "text": "There really isn't a zoning contingency necessary. It's not like the seller is marketing it at a commercial parcel when it's not. It's zoned residential in a semi rural area and the zoning maps agree so I know exactly what I'm getting.", "replies": [], "depth": 2}], "depth": 1}, {"id": "d7y3v4b", "text": "Sounds like you have plenty of time to talk to the planning people and find out what the rezoning probability is.  You might also ask a civil engineer to give you a bid on entitling it for your use and take that into consideration on the pricing.  ", "replies": [], "depth": 1}, {"id": "d7y3z02", "text": "With respect to pricing, I'd underwrite the deal as you envision it including entitlement costs, hard/soft construction, financing, and a contingency.  Consider your hold period, probable NOI at exit, and probably cap rate at exit, and then back out the IRR you are looking to hit.  Once you do that, you have the residual land value (to you), and that is your target purchase price.", "replies": [], "depth": 1}]