user32555: Why do you think white is losing here?


user11071: Some thoughts:

the only thing preventing white being checkmated is the queen guarding h1. Which dramatically reduces the queen's value.
white's knight is in the corner, a terrible place in general for a knight, and very far from the action
black has many targets: h1, g3, d3, and the threat of queening at e1. White doesn't have much except Ng6+.
after Bxf4, gxf4 g3, it becomes a desperate battle to avoid mate.


user19861: Without really analyzing this position in depth, Just at first glance. Black has four pieces aimed at White's king and White's pieces are mostly misplaced. White's rook on a1 is doing nothing and his knight on a8 is going to take a couple moves just to be a useful piece.
Black has a lot of potential threats. Qh1. Qh2, e2, Bxf4, Nh3+ etc. Yes, white is defending most of that right now but I would be willing to bet there's a really strong combination combining two or more of those threats that's pretty devastating.

user26335: In addition to the other excellent answers highlighting the number of Black pieces aimed at White's King and Allure's correct analysis, it seemed concrete variations were the only useful thing to add to this Q/A.
White is losing because all roads lead to forced checkmates for the reasons identified by the other answers. Specifically, after 1. Qb7, Black has a forced checkmate in 19 moves. Diagram & lines courtesy of Stockfish 14+ NNUE (depth = 41+, 18225k nodes/s).
Interestingly, all of the captures and subsequent promotions with the g-pawn on Black's 7th move lead to mate in the same number of moves as 7...Qh3+.
[FEN "N4r1k/p7/7q/4b3/2P2Np1/1Q1Pp1P1/PP3n2/R4RK1 w - - 0 1"]

1. Qb7 Bxf4 {2. gxf4, Qd5, Qg2} 2. gxf4 {This move delays the longest.} 2...g3 3. Kg2 {3. Qg2 and 3. Rxf2 lead to getting mated quicker} 3...Qh2+ {3...Qh3+ also strong, 3...e2 is a draw} 4. Kf3 g2 {Black's only move for a win.  4...g2 is a draw} 5. Qc7 {5. Rg1, 5. Kxe3 both lead to quicker mates} 5...Re8 {5...Qh3+ also wins by force} 6. Qe5+ {6. Qc8 and 6. Rxf2 lead to quicker mates} 6...Rxe5 7. fxe5 Qh3+ {Interestingly, all of the captures and subsequent promotions with the g-pawn lead to mate in the same number of moves as 7...Qh3+.} (7... gxf1=Q 8. Rxf1 Qh3+ 9. Ke2 Ng4 10. Rf8+ Kg7 11. d4 Qg2+ 12. Kd3 e2 13. Nc7 Kxf8 14. Ne6+ Kg8 15. Nf4 Qf3+ 16. Kd2 e1=Q+ 17. Kxe1 Qf2+ 18. Kd1 Ne3+ 19. Kc1 Qc2#) (7... gxf1=R 8. Rxf1 Qh3+ 9. Ke2 Ng4 10. d4 Qg2+ 11. Kd3 Qxf1+ 12. Ke4 e2 13. Kd5 e1=Q 14. Nb6 Qf3+ 15. Kd6 Qb4+ 16. c5 Qxd4+ 17. Ke6 Qxe5+ 18. Kd7 Qb7+ 19. Kd8 Qee7#) (7... gxf1=B 8. Rxf1 Qh3+ 9. Ke2 Ng4 10. d4 Qg2+ 11. Kd3 Qxf1+ 12. Ke4 e2 13. Kd5 e1=Q 14. Nb6 Qf3+ 15. Kd6 Qb4+ 16. c5 Qxd4+ 17. Nd5 Qdxd5+ 18. Kc7 Qff7+ 19. Kb8 Qd8#) (7... gxf1=N 8. Rxf1 Qh3+ 9. Ke2 Ng4 10. Rf8+ Kh7 11. Rf7+ Kg8 12. Rg7+ Kxg7 13. d4 Qg2+ (13... Qh2+ 14. Kf3 e2 15. Ke4 Qg2+ 16. Kf5 e1=Q 17. b3 Qef2+ 18. Ke6 Qc6+ 19. Ke7 Qh4#) 14. Kd3 e2 15. c5 e1=Q 16. Kc4 Nxe5+ 17. dxe5 Qge4+ 18. Kb5 Q1b4+ 19. Ka6 Qeb7#) 8. Ke2 gxf1=Q+ 9. Rxf1 Ng4 10. Rf8+ (10. d4 Qg2+ 11. Kd3 Qxf1+ 12. Ke4 Qg2+ 13. Kf5 Qxa8 14. Kxg4 Qe4+ (14... Qf8 15. e6 e2 16. e7 Qxe7 17. Kf4 e1=Q 18. Kg4 Q7e4+ 19. Kg5 Q1h4#) 15. Kg5 Qf3 16. e6 e2 17. a3 e1=Q 18. Kg6 Qeg3+ 19. Kh6 Qh1#) 10... Kg7 11. d4 Qg2+ (11... Kxf8 12. Nb6 Qg2+ 13. Kd3 e2 14. Nd7+ Ke7 15. Kc3 e1=Q+ 16. Kb3 Qb7+ 17. Nb6 Qxb6+ 18. Kc2 Qe2+ 19. Kb1 Qbxb2#) 12. Rf2 exf2 13. Kd2 (13. Kd3 Qf3+ 14. Kc2 f1=Q 15. b3 Q1g2+ 16. Kc1 Qff1#) 13... Qf3 14. Kc2 f1=Q 15. b3 Q1e2+ 16. Kb1 Qh1#      

With perfect play, White is already lost. There are no good options. White gets checkmated either way: 1. Nh3 is -M8, 1. Kg2 is -M9, and 1. Ng6+ is -M13.  The analysis above shows 1. Qb7 leads to mate (-M19). Stockfish prefers sacrificing the Rook for the Knight with 1. Rxf2 but this seems to just lead to a longer mate (-M22).
Note:  -Mx means Black has a forced checkmate in x moves.

user15223: White's king is dangerously exposed. 1...Bxf4 2. gxf4 g3 and how is White going to avoid checkmate? 3. Qg2 Nh3+ 4. Kh1 Nxf4+ wins the Queen, while 3. Kg2 Qh2+ 4. Kf3 g2 threatening Qxf4+ is almost checkmate as well.
So Black wins. Don't just count material, the ultimate goal of the game is to checkmate.

32555: <p>Why do you think white is losing here?</p>
<p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/9XuBr.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/9XuBr.png" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
 11071: <p>Some thoughts:</p>
<ul>
<li>the only thing preventing white being checkmated is the queen guarding h1. Which dramatically reduces the queen's value.</li>
<li>white's knight is in the corner, a terrible place in general for a knight, and very far from the action</li>
<li>black has many targets: h1, g3, d3, and the threat of queening at e1. White doesn't have much except Ng6+.</li>
<li>after Bxf4, gxf4 g3, it becomes a desperate battle to avoid mate.</li>
</ul>
 19861: <p>Without really analyzing this position in depth, Just at first glance. Black has four pieces aimed at White's king and White's pieces are mostly misplaced. White's rook on a1 is doing nothing and his knight on a8 is going to take a couple moves just to be a useful piece.</p>
<p>Black has a lot of potential threats. Qh1. Qh2, e2, Bxf4, Nh3+ etc. Yes, white is defending most of that right now but I would be willing to bet there's a really strong combination combining two or more of those threats that's pretty devastating.</p>
 26335: <p>In addition to the other excellent answers highlighting the <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/a/39909/26335">number of Black pieces aimed at White's King</a> and Allure's <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/a/39857/26335">correct analysis</a>, it seemed concrete variations were the only useful thing to add to this Q/A.</p>
<p>White is losing because all roads lead to forced checkmates for the reasons identified by the other answers. Specifically, after <strong>1. Qb7</strong>, Black has a forced checkmate in 19 moves. Diagram &amp; lines courtesy of Stockfish 14+ NNUE (depth = 41+, 18225k nodes/s).</p>
<p>Interestingly, all of the captures and subsequent promotions with the g-pawn on Black's 7th move lead to mate in the same number of moves as 7...Qh3+.</p>
<pre><code>[FEN &quot;N4r1k/p7/7q/4b3/2P2Np1/1Q1Pp1P1/PP3n2/R4RK1 w - - 0 1&quot;]

1. Qb7 Bxf4 {2. gxf4, Qd5, Qg2} 2. gxf4 {This move delays the longest.} 2...g3 3. Kg2 {3. Qg2 and 3. Rxf2 lead to getting mated quicker} 3...Qh2+ {3...Qh3+ also strong, 3...e2 is a draw} 4. Kf3 g2 {Black's only move for a win.  4...g2 is a draw} 5. Qc7 {5. Rg1, 5. Kxe3 both lead to quicker mates} 5...Re8 {5...Qh3+ also wins by force} 6. Qe5+ {6. Qc8 and 6. Rxf2 lead to quicker mates} 6...Rxe5 7. fxe5 Qh3+ {Interestingly, all of the captures and subsequent promotions with the g-pawn lead to mate in the same number of moves as 7...Qh3+.} (7... gxf1=Q 8. Rxf1 Qh3+ 9. Ke2 Ng4 10. Rf8+ Kg7 11. d4 Qg2+ 12. Kd3 e2 13. Nc7 Kxf8 14. Ne6+ Kg8 15. Nf4 Qf3+ 16. Kd2 e1=Q+ 17. Kxe1 Qf2+ 18. Kd1 Ne3+ 19. Kc1 Qc2#) (7... gxf1=R 8. Rxf1 Qh3+ 9. Ke2 Ng4 10. d4 Qg2+ 11. Kd3 Qxf1+ 12. Ke4 e2 13. Kd5 e1=Q 14. Nb6 Qf3+ 15. Kd6 Qb4+ 16. c5 Qxd4+ 17. Ke6 Qxe5+ 18. Kd7 Qb7+ 19. Kd8 Qee7#) (7... gxf1=B 8. Rxf1 Qh3+ 9. Ke2 Ng4 10. d4 Qg2+ 11. Kd3 Qxf1+ 12. Ke4 e2 13. Kd5 e1=Q 14. Nb6 Qf3+ 15. Kd6 Qb4+ 16. c5 Qxd4+ 17. Nd5 Qdxd5+ 18. Kc7 Qff7+ 19. Kb8 Qd8#) (7... gxf1=N 8. Rxf1 Qh3+ 9. Ke2 Ng4 10. Rf8+ Kh7 11. Rf7+ Kg8 12. Rg7+ Kxg7 13. d4 Qg2+ (13... Qh2+ 14. Kf3 e2 15. Ke4 Qg2+ 16. Kf5 e1=Q 17. b3 Qef2+ 18. Ke6 Qc6+ 19. Ke7 Qh4#) 14. Kd3 e2 15. c5 e1=Q 16. Kc4 Nxe5+ 17. dxe5 Qge4+ 18. Kb5 Q1b4+ 19. Ka6 Qeb7#) 8. Ke2 gxf1=Q+ 9. Rxf1 Ng4 10. Rf8+ (10. d4 Qg2+ 11. Kd3 Qxf1+ 12. Ke4 Qg2+ 13. Kf5 Qxa8 14. Kxg4 Qe4+ (14... Qf8 15. e6 e2 16. e7 Qxe7 17. Kf4 e1=Q 18. Kg4 Q7e4+ 19. Kg5 Q1h4#) 15. Kg5 Qf3 16. e6 e2 17. a3 e1=Q 18. Kg6 Qeg3+ 19. Kh6 Qh1#) 10... Kg7 11. d4 Qg2+ (11... Kxf8 12. Nb6 Qg2+ 13. Kd3 e2 14. Nd7+ Ke7 15. Kc3 e1=Q+ 16. Kb3 Qb7+ 17. Nb6 Qxb6+ 18. Kc2 Qe2+ 19. Kb1 Qbxb2#) 12. Rf2 exf2 13. Kd2 (13. Kd3 Qf3+ 14. Kc2 f1=Q 15. b3 Q1g2+ 16. Kc1 Qff1#) 13... Qf3 14. Kc2 f1=Q 15. b3 Q1e2+ 16. Kb1 Qh1#      
</code></pre>
<p>With perfect play, White is already lost. There are no good options. White gets checkmated either way: 1. Nh3 is -M8, 1. Kg2 is -M9, and 1. Ng6+ is -M13.  The analysis above shows 1. Qb7 leads to mate (-M19). Stockfish prefers sacrificing the Rook for the Knight with 1. Rxf2 but this seems to just lead to a longer mate (-M22).</p>
<p><sub>Note:  -M<em>x</em> means Black has a forced checkmate in <em>x</em> moves.</sub></p>
 15223: <p>White's king is dangerously exposed. 1...Bxf4 2. gxf4 g3 and how is White going to avoid checkmate? 3. Qg2 Nh3+ 4. Kh1 Nxf4+ wins the Queen, while 3. Kg2 Qh2+ 4. Kf3 g2 threatening Qxf4+ is almost checkmate as well.</p>
<p>So Black wins. Don't just count material, the ultimate goal of the game is to checkmate.</p>
