user4270: Some commentators have expressed surprise at the two relatively bland draws to open out the most recent (Carlsen-Karjakin) World Championships.  I'm wondering whether there's been any study as to whether 'feeling-out' is a real phenomenon: are draws more likely to happen at the start of a championship match, in the middle, or towards the end?  Has any objective research (whether specifically WCC or any high-level chess match play) been done on this?

user3831: I am not aware of a study of this kind, but why not make our own? Let us parse some WCC PGNs!


To me, this does not seem to have any definite regularities for when a draw is more likely (also note, that at the very high number of rounds, only a few games are available - there have been only a few very long WCC matches).
EDIT
Recent events only. Looks like more draws overall and slight tendency for more draws towards the end of a match.



4270: <p>Some commentators have expressed surprise at the two relatively bland draws to open out the most recent (Carlsen-Karjakin) World Championships.  I'm wondering whether there's been any study as to whether 'feeling-out' is a real phenomenon: are draws more likely to happen at the start of a championship match, in the middle, or towards the end?  Has any objective research (whether specifically WCC or any high-level chess match play) been done on this?</p>
 3831: <p>I am not aware of a study of this kind, but why not make our own? Let us parse some WCC PGNs!</p>

<p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/VK5k6.png" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/VK5k6.png" alt="WCC games results"></a></p>

<p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/HHXdt.png" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/HHXdt.png" alt="Fraction of draws by round"></a></p>

<p>To me, this does not seem to have any definite regularities for when a draw is more likely (also note, that at the very high number of rounds, only a few games are available - there have been only a few very long WCC matches).</p>

<p><strong>EDIT</strong></p>

<p>Recent events only. Looks like more draws overall and slight tendency for more draws towards the end of a match.</p>

<p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/paoHC.png" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/paoHC.png" alt="WCC games results - post 1985"></a></p>

<p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/mGYI1.png" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/mGYI1.png" alt="Fraction of draws by round - post 1985"></a></p>
