user21677: I am 1.5 points clear of the field, and my last-round opponent is in a must-win situation for a prize. Is there a mathematically/statistically proven way for me to take advantage of this state of affairs to maximize my own winning chances?
A sub-question of this is: Has anyone studied the phenomenon of must-win situations in sport? What was their conclusion for the side who is not must-win?

user13074: Daniel Moskovich asked:
Is there a mathematically/statistically proven way for me to take advantage of this state of affairs to maximize my own winning chances?
I think not.
Generally, one should always play the actual position one faces on the board: you do not know in advance what your opponent intends to open with.
You suspect your opponent must play for a win so will take risks suggesting a gambit opening and aggresive tactical play.
One strategy could be to pass the fight to Black with a noncommital move like 1.Nf3 or even 1.b3.
Some of the Catalan systems played by Kramnik are worth a look at.
Maybe even be really provocative and try 1.a3 or 1.h3 the strategy being to then mimic as far as possible Black's moves ie in effect making Black play against him/her self.
Although you are White you are then in effect playing as Black but with an extra move in hand.
At the very least your opponent will be discombobulated and any prepared lines they have ready for you will be redundant.
Also, this strategy may gain you time on the clock!

user924: One thing is that you may adjust your opening choice, knowing that any forced draws are wins for you. For instance as white against the Najdorf, 6.Bg5 has many lines that contain forced draws, and black may be used to playing lines where he would welcome them. Now he has to avoid them and that may force him to play inferior lines.
That said -- if this makes you play openings you generally don't play, you will probably just find yourself in a sharp position that you don't know well, which is the last thing you want. And in the given tournament situation, the opponent may already be looking for openings he doesn't have any games in a database with, to avoid any special opening preparation altogether.

21677: <p>I am 1.5 points clear of the field, and my last-round opponent is in a must-win situation for a prize. Is there a mathematically/statistically proven way for me to take advantage of this state of affairs to maximize my own winning chances?</p>

<p>A sub-question of this is: Has anyone studied the phenomenon of must-win situations in sport? What was their conclusion for the side who is not must-win?</p>
 13074: <p>Daniel Moskovich asked:
Is there a mathematically/statistically proven way for me to take advantage of this state of affairs to maximize my own winning chances?</p>

<p>I think not.</p>

<p>Generally, one should always play the actual position one faces on the board: you do not know in advance what your opponent intends to open with.
You suspect your opponent must play for a win so will take risks suggesting a gambit opening and aggresive tactical play.</p>

<p>One strategy could be to pass the fight to Black with a noncommital move like 1.Nf3 or even 1.b3.
Some of the Catalan systems played by Kramnik are worth a look at.</p>

<p>Maybe even be really provocative and try 1.a3 or 1.h3 the strategy being to then mimic as far as possible Black's moves ie in effect making Black play against him/her self.</p>

<p>Although you are White you are then in effect playing as Black but with an extra move in hand.</p>

<p>At the very least your opponent will be discombobulated and any prepared lines they have ready for you will be redundant.
Also, this strategy may gain you time on the clock!</p>
 924: <p>One thing is that you may adjust your opening choice, knowing that any forced draws are wins for you. For instance as white against the Najdorf, 6.Bg5 has many lines that contain forced draws, and black may be used to playing lines where he would welcome them. Now he has to avoid them and that may force him to play inferior lines.</p>

<p>That said -- if this makes you play openings you generally don't play, you will probably just find yourself in a sharp position that you don't know well, which is the last thing you want. And in the given tournament situation, the opponent may already be looking for openings he doesn't have any games in a database with, to avoid any special opening preparation altogether.</p>
