user38: Statistically speaking, which white and black pawns are most likely to be queened?

user132: I have some partial statistics for the question, from the Million Base 1.74 database, a collection of 1742057 games. 77218 of these games (4.4%) feature at least one promotion.
I counted 49970 promotions for white (54% of all promotions) and 42519 for black (46%). Here are the destination square statistics (meaning there is no track of the actual initial pawn square, because that statistic is a lot more difficult to gather), for all games and depending on the type of castling:
White         a8    b8    c8    d8    e8    f8    g8    h8
all         15.8% 14.2% 13.8% 14.8% 11.5% 11.3%  8.7%  9.8%
with O-O    15.8% 14.3% 13.9% 15.9% 11.8% 11.2%  8.1%  9.1%
with O-O-O  17.1% 14.7% 14.2% 10.7%  9.9% 11.7% 10.8% 11.0%

Black         a1    b1    c1    d1    e1    f1    g1    h1
all         16.0% 14.7% 14.4% 12.6% 11.8% 11.3%  9.0% 10.1%
with O-O    15.9% 14.8% 14.3% 12.9% 11.9% 11.3%  8.7% 10.0%
with O-O-O  13.5% 10.7% 10.9%  9.7% 12.4% 14.0% 14.0% 14.8%

A few observations:

queenside promotions seem significantly more common than kingside promotions
column statistics are quite consistent between black and white (except maybe when black castles long)
castling long increases the odds of a promotion happening kingside


38: <p>Statistically speaking, which white and black pawns are most likely to be queened?</p>
 132: <p>I have some partial statistics for the question, from the <a href="http://www.top-5000.nl/pgn.htm">Million Base 1.74</a> database, a collection of 1742057 games. 77218 of these games (4.4%) feature at least one promotion.</p>

<p>I counted 49970 promotions for white (54% of all promotions) and 42519 for black (46%). Here are the <strong>destination</strong> square statistics (meaning there is no track of the actual initial pawn square, because that statistic is a lot more difficult to gather), for all games and depending on the type of castling:</p>

<pre><code>White         a8    b8    c8    d8    e8    f8    g8    h8
all         15.8% 14.2% 13.8% 14.8% 11.5% 11.3%  8.7%  9.8%
with O-O    15.8% 14.3% 13.9% 15.9% 11.8% 11.2%  8.1%  9.1%
with O-O-O  17.1% 14.7% 14.2% 10.7%  9.9% 11.7% 10.8% 11.0%

Black         a1    b1    c1    d1    e1    f1    g1    h1
all         16.0% 14.7% 14.4% 12.6% 11.8% 11.3%  9.0% 10.1%
with O-O    15.9% 14.8% 14.3% 12.9% 11.9% 11.3%  8.7% 10.0%
with O-O-O  13.5% 10.7% 10.9%  9.7% 12.4% 14.0% 14.0% 14.8%
</code></pre>

<p>A few observations:</p>

<ul>
<li>queenside promotions seem significantly more common than kingside promotions</li>
<li>column statistics are quite consistent between black and white (except maybe when black castles long)</li>
<li>castling long increases the odds of a promotion happening kingside</li>
</ul>
