Could Polar Bears Be Extinct by 2100?
Climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions is a threat to the existence of polar bears that, if left unabated, may push many some groups to the brink of local extinction by the end of the century -- and thats under conservative estimates. More likely, research published in a July 2020 issue of Nature Climate Change suggests that most of the species will be extinct by 2100.  Nature Climate Change Previously, we knew that polar bears would ultimately disappear unless we halt greenhouse gas rise. But knowing when they will begin to disappear in different areas is critical for informing management and policy -- and inspiring action, said study co-author Steven Amstrup, chief scientist of Polar Bears International, in a statement. statement We found that moderate emissions reductions may prolong global persistence, but are not likely to prevent the extirpation of several populations, emphasizing the urgency of more ambitious emissions cuts. Amstrup and a team of researchers from Polar Bears International and several North American universities determined for the first time when polar bears are likely to go extinct due to a loss of sea ice, which provides crucial hunting grounds during the summer months, by analyzing 13 of 19 Arctic polar bear subpopulations, which collectively make up about 80% of the species. Other groups were omitted because of their remote locations, making them difficult to study. A framework was developed to determine how different weights of polar bears may make them better or worse equipped to survive longer fasting periods as well as the amount of energy expended during this time -- what they call the fasting impact threshold -- and compared this data with the projected future number of days that the Arctic is likely to be sea-ice-free based on observations made between 1979 and 2016. Polar Bears International By estimating how thin and how fat polar bears can be, and modeling their energy use, we were able to calculate the threshold number of days that polar bears can fast before cub and/or adult survival rates begin to decline, said Professor Pter Molnr of the University of Toronto, Scarborough.   Polar bears depend on sea ice to hunt seal prey, but in recent years declining levels have made it increasingly difficult for bears to feed. Sea ice is frozen ocean water that forms in the fall, grows in the winter, and eventually melts back into the ocean in the summer, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. But NOAA notes that observations in recent decades suggest that minimum sea ice -- that is, the lowest level each September -- is declining at a rate of more than 12% each decade since the 1970s. As sea ice declines, polar bears are forced ashore or to less productive waters and more time spent searching for food means that they are spending longer periods of time fasting and using up vital energy reserves built over the winter. National Snow and Ice Data Center NOAA Scientists calculated the timeliness of risk to determine how individual polar bear populations might be affected by two different futures based on greenhouse gas projections. If current greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate, a scenario colloquially known as business-as-usual, researchers project that all but a few of the polar bear subpopulations will collapse by the end of the century, leaving only those living in the high Arctic. Though moderate emissions will likely prolong the survival rates of some, it is likely that at least some of the population will become locally extinct within this century. business-as-usual By keeping global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, as was set forth by the Paris Agreement, it is still likely that most of the polar bear population will experience reproductive failure by 2080. Paris Agreement  Polar bears have long been seen as a bellwether, highlighting what might happen to some of the planets most vulnerable species in the face of climate change. A 2019 assessment conducted by the Polar Bear Specialist Group of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) found that sea ice loss resulting from climate change posed the most serious threat to polar bear survivals, but determining how and when the species may go extinct has been a challenge to the scientific community. Polar Bear Specialist Group IUCN Some polar bear subpopulations were further shown to be more impacted by environmental conditions differently. In the southernmost areas, total sea-ice melt forces local bears ashore every summer and they must largely rely on energy reserves from winter hunting for their survival and to produce enough milk for their cubs. The researchers add that their timeline projections are probably conservative and predict that many of the subpopulations will likely pass their threshold earlier. This is due to the high probability that researchers underestimated bears metabolic rate and assumed in their calculations that the large animals spend less energy on thermoregulation or growth than they do in reality. Environmental and physiological differences in bear subpopulations also play a role in how likely they are to pass their threshold sooner. For example, bears that hunt in areas like the Southern Beaufort Sea with fragmented sea-ice are likely to use far more energy than is gained by feeding -- a potential difference of up to four times more energy than bears who hunt in Western Hudson Bay, which the scientists note render their baseline timelines optimistic. The International Union of the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species lists polar bears as vulnerable and estimates that there are between 22,000 and 31,000 individuals left worldwide, up to 80% of which are found in Canada. Though some subpopulations appear to be rebounding, in part due to measures placed on historical hunting, at least four groups are experiencing population decreases. vulnerable Molnr, Pter, et al.  "Fasting Season Length Sets Temporal Limits for Global Polar Bear Persistence."
  Nature Climate Change.  20 July 2020. Polar Bears International.  "When Will Polar Bear Populations Likely Start Collapsing?"
  20 July 2020. World Wildlife Fund.  "Polar Bear Assessment Brings Good and Troubling News."
  October 2019.
In February 2023, we looked into a new Target PS5 scam email that claimed recipients had won a brand new Sony PlayStation 5 gaming console. However, this was a scam, and a potentially dangerous one, at that. The subject line in the emails read, "You have won a PlayStation 5." The messages came from an email address with the display name "Target PS5."Target and Sony had no involvement in the scam. Their company names and logos were being used without authorization. [See also:Did Walmart Employees Hide a PS5 Stash for Themselves?] Did Walmart Employees Hide a PS5 Stash for Themselves? The body of the email misleadingly said that all users needed to do was answer some survey questions to "win a brand new PlayStation 5." It will take you only a minute to receive this fantastic prize. PlayStation 5. Target. Answer & Win: A Brand New PlayStation 5. Get Started Now. Congratulations! You have been chosen to participate in our Loyalty Program for FREE! It will take you only a minute to receive this fantastic prize. If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you may unsubscribe by clicking here. The link in the email led to a 15-question survey on orientgrounds.info, a brand new website that was registered on Feb. 14, according to GoDaddy.com. After those 15 questions, the scam led to win.myluckyprizes.com/ps5/checkout.php. This website, myluckyprizes.com, was also fairly new and had been created in January 2023. Records showed that it was registered on a Vietnamese domain registrar. We had already seen plenty of signs that this Target PS5 email was a scam, and the Vietnamese registration was yet another red flag that none of this was legitimate. On myluckyprizes.com, the website asked for the user's name, mailing address, phone number, and email address. It then asked for a credit card number and claimed the financial information was needed to charge $7.95 to be entered to win the PS5. asked for a credit card number We found no pages for a terms of service or privacy policy on myluckyprizes.com. We also didn't see a parent company name or any other identifying details. Further, attempts to load the homepage of myluckyprizes.com failed with a "403 Forbidden" error. If any readers fell for this scam and gave away a credit card number, we recommend that they immediately contact their credit card company to let them know what happened. The credit card company can best advise on what to do next. A new credit card number may need to be issued through the mail. The reason for this precaution is that scammers sometimes try to use credit card information days, weeks, or even months after they get their hands on it. "WHOIS Domain Lookup." GoDaddy.com, https://www.godaddy.com/whois. On 12 August 2017, First Lady Melania Trump publicly responded to violent events that had taken place earlier that day at a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, by tweeting the following: violent events Our country encourages freedom of speech, but let's communicate w/o hate in our hearts. No good comes from violence. #Charlottesville #Charlottesville  Melania Trump (@FLOTUS) August 12, 2017 August 12, 2017  In mid-2016, Mrs. Trump had been the subject of fierce criticism for delivering a speech before the Republican National Convention which included passages identical in content and specific phrasing to an address given before the Democratic National Convention in 2008 by Michelle Obama.  That event prompted a good number of spoof items posted online that played on the idea of various prominent political figures plagiarizing each other's words. criticism spoof items posted Shortly after the 12 August 2017 statement referenced above was posted to the First Lady's Twitter feed, another image began circulating online positing that Melania Trump had likewise taken those words (without credit) from a comment made by former First Lady Michelle Obama over a year earlier:  Although we can't yet absolutely rule out the possibility that Mrs. Obama might at some time have expressed something like the thought attributed to her here, we have found no record of her having done so (on 16 April 2016 or any other day) and suspect that this image is just a spoof of the earlier convention speech controversy. FACT CHECK: Does a photograph depict Mexican immigrants who were coerced into "donating" kidneys to enter the United States?      Claim:  A photograph shows several Mexican immigrants who were forced to surrender  kidneys in order to enter the United States.    Example:   [Collected via Facebook, July 2015] Take notice, the scar on the side of each Central American immigrant going through Mexico to get to the USA, they are forced by local authorities in the state of Coahuila which borders with Texas to "volunteer" a kidney, of course the government of such state sells the kidneys to US agencies for hundreds of thousands of dollars, this is the price they pay to be allowed to cross through the Mexican territory...The cost of wanting a better life and freedom must be worth it for these people...I am originally from Mexico, however at this time I'm not proud of it.......Please shere with all your friends in the US, these is only made public in digital newspapers in Mexico, PLEASE SHARE!!!! Origins: On 12 July 2015, a Facebook user published a status update consisting of the photograph seen above along with the claim that it depicted Mexican immigrants who each had to "donate" a kidney to local Mexican authorities in order to be allowed to cross through into the United States. published However, the photograph in question was at least two years old by July 2015, and it does not match the claim now appended to it. The picture was published in April 2013 as part of an article about the 2013 documentary Tales from the Organ Trade. While the photograph was originally taken to illustrate the impact of a coercive black market for organs, the individuals depicted were identified as Filipino (not as Mexican or Central American), and the circumstances under which their organs were taken did not involve immigration to the United States from Mexico (or any other country): article Steering well clear of sensationalist tales of men and women waylaid by bio-buccaneers who snatch people's chloroformed kidneys while they sleep, the director tells the stories of those who "willingly" exchange their bodily integrity for another year's worth of food and shelter for their families. [The filmmaker] takes us to a village in the Philippines where nearly every adult male sports a nephrectomy (kidney removal operation) scar. Through candid interviews, we learn how badly these people (in places around the globe) are counting on continued demand for the only moderately valuable assets they possess  pieces of their own bodies.   Both the above-quoted excerpt and an HBO page about the film reference a classic urban legend in which an unwitting individual is incapacitated and robbed of a kidney by black market organ traders. HBO urban legend Although individuals attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border illegally often face genuine and serious dangers, coerced organ donation is not documented among those risks. dangers Last updated:  13July 2015 Originally published: 13July 2015 Dan Patrick framed his case for ordering Texas schools to shift money toward higher teacher salaries by suggesting that less than a third of school spending currently reaches teacher pocketbooks. The Republican lieutenant governor,addressing reportersbefore the July 2017 start of a special legislative session called by Gov. Greg Abbott, said: Of all the money we spend on education, less than 32 percent goes to teachers. By email, Patrick spokesman Alejandro Garcia offered as the basis of Patricks claim astate publicationpresenting statistics such as student enrollment. We did not spot information in the document speaking to what Patrick said. Texas Education Agency figures But when we reached out to the Texas Education Agency, spokeswoman Lauren Callahan responded by pointing out state-posted figures for the 2015-16 school year, the latest year of audited spending totals. That year, according to the agency, state governmentrecorded receipts of $58,796,907,294related to public schools from state, local, federal and other revenue sources. The same year,according toanother agency web page, 347,328 teachers were paid combined base salaries of $18,023,516,741, averaging $51,892. That $18 billion breaks out to 31 percent of the nearly $59 billion in total receipts. Some more money went to teachers, though, in nearly $1 million in stipends such as whats paid to teachers that oversee extracurricular activities, Callahan told us. The resulting total teacher compensation, $19,005,561,634, divides out to 32 percent of the total education receipts. Additional money goes into other salaries. According to the agency, Texas schools in 2015-16 paid more than $24 billion to 68,699 teacher support staff  broken out by TEA into more than 20 job categories including counselors, school nurses and athletic trainers  plus 237,460 administrative, professional, paraprofessional and auxiliary staff  with spending on all employee salaries accounting for more than 70 percent of school-related receipts. Keep in mind, though, Patrick singled out the share of all spending solely devoted to teacher pay. School district advocates When we asked finance experts who advocate for school districts if the equation based on TEA data holds up, we heard back that the math works, but the total-spending figure folds in spending deserving of an asterisk. In emails,Joe Wisnoski, a former TEA finance administrator who advises and lobbies for school districts, andTom Canbyof the Texas Association of School Business Officials each suggested its unfair to compare the $18 billion spent on teacher salaries to total receipts, which count money that doesnt play into school employee salaries, each expert wrote. Wisnoski suggested its more appropriate to compare spending on teacher salaries to operating expenditures, which means not judging the teacher salaries against any money districts raise in bond proceeds or whats spent on capital projects such as buildings or to pay off debt. Wisnoski noted that none of those funding streams would be available to could be diverted to salaries anyway. According to the TEAs posted figures for 2015-16, 2015-16 all funds operating expenditures for schools totaled nearly $49.5 billion --of which the spending on teacher salaries accounted for 36.4 percent, Wisnoski said and we confirmed. There are lots of ways to include or exclude things in the world of school district finances, Wisnoski said, and what is most appropriate somewhat depends on the person making the point and the specific point being made. Canby called the equation that got us to 32 percent of all spending going to teacher salaries a misleading apples divided by oranges calculation. He said he would gauge the share of spending on teacher salaries, starting from 2016actual expenditure totalshe said he fetched from the statesPublic Education Information Management System. Those figures suggest that teacher salaries cost $19,131,375,774 with benefits adding $3,429,356,293. The resulting $22,560,732,067 accounted for 47.7 percent of $47,303,105,584 in operating expenditures statewide, Canby noted. Canby also emailed us a web link to a July 2017commentaryby TASBOs executive director, Tracy Ginsburg, stating that the group had been unable to verify numbers aired by Patrick indicating that of $163,000 spent per classroom, $52,000 is paid to classroom teachers. Ginsburg encouraged readers to consider a June 2017reportby Moak, Casey & Associates, the lobbying and consulting firm whose associates include Wisnoski. That report says that in 2015-16, Texas school employee salaries and benefits absorbed 79 percent of $46.4 billion spent on basic educational costs. The share of that spending on teacher salaries alone doesnt appear in the report, which states that instruction accounted for 61 percent of basic costs, taking into account some 333,000 teachers plus 63,700 education aides. The instruction entry in the report says: Also included here are the salaries and benefits costs of 4,500 librarians as well as the books and other materials that can be found in Texas school libraries. The cost of instructional materials and staff development are also included in this category as instructional costs. Our ruling Patrick said: Of all the money we spend on education, less than 32 percent goes to teachers. This percentage, we found, aligns with the simple comparison of total teacher salaries to all funds spent on public schools. But its worth clarifying that not all funds can be diverted to teacher salaries. You could also say that close to half of available school spending in 2015-16 went to teacher salaries. We rate the statement Mostly True. MOSTLY TRUE The statement is accurate but needs clarification or additional information. Click here formoreon the six PolitiFact ratings and how we select facts to check. On 21 August 2018, comedian Kathy Griffin, a frequent critic of U.S. President Donald Trump, dug up a 2015 tweet composed by Trump's long-time former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, to mock the latter on the day he pled guilty to multiple counts relating to fraud and campaign finance violations. dug up Although Cohen has since deleted the tweet, a cached version remains available online: deleted cached version   The tweet was cast as ironic in light of the fact that Cohen is now the one facing prison time. On 21 August 2018, he pled guilty to eight counts, including campaign finance violations that involve paying hush money to an adult film actress and Playboy model to buy their silence on alleged affairs with Trump. He is due to be sentenced in December 2018 and faces up to 63 months in prison.  Cohen's tweet stems from the fact that Trump supporters often chanted "lock her up" about Hillary Clinton in the run-up to the 2016 election (and continue to do so despite current events), and Trump himself vowed that if elected, he would ensure that Clinton was prosecuted and punished for various alleged crimes. continue Instead, members of Trump's inner circle and campaign have been the ones charged with crimes, as Department of Justice Special Counsel Robert Mueller continues to investigate allegations involving Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. investigate Cohen is not the only person in Trump's political realm to have taunted Clinton during the campaign, only to end up slapped with criminal charges himself. Michael Flynn, Trump's former National Security Advisor, famously led chants of "lock her up" at rallies and later pled guilty in 2017 to lying to the FBI. guilty On the same day Cohen pled guilty, Trump's former campaign chair Paul Manafort was found guilty by a jury on eight counts including bank fraud, tax fraud, and failure to disclose a foreign bank account. guilty Horton, Alex.  "Michael Cohens Tweet About Hillary Clinton and Prison Came Back to Haunt Him. Now Its Gone."
  The Washington Post.  22 August 2018. Orden, Erica et al.  "Michael Cohen Implicates Trump in Hush Money Scheme."
  CNN.  22 August 2018. LaFraniere, Sharon. "Paul Manafort, Trumps Former Campaign Chairman, Guilty of 8 Counts."
  The New York Times.  21 August 2018. Shear, Michael D. and Adam Goldman.  "Michael Flynn Pleads Guilty to Lying to the F.B.I. and Will Cooperate with Russia Inquiry."
  The New York Times.  1 December 2017. The term small business covers a range of seven different size categories, ranging from a two-person mom-and-pop grocery store to a factory with nearly 500 employees.Which is why researchers at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chuckled when we asked them about a statement Ohio House Speaker William G. Batchelder made about small businesses creating new jobs.Appearing on WCPN 90.3 FMs Sound of Ideas program, Batchelder noted the importance of small businesses in Ohios economy.Seventy-five percent of the jobs created in the state of Ohio are created in small business. They are not created by huge corporations and those who are very wealthy, Batchelder said.PolitiFact Ohio thought that sounded interesting and we put the Truth-O-Meter to work.We started by contacting the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Researchers there cited statistics that showed 99 percent of all private sector companies in the United States are considered small businesses, according to the definition used by the Small Business Administration. It categorizes any firm that employs 499 or fewer people as a small business.Traditionally, the number of people employed by small businesses has been about the same as the number who work for businesses of 500 people or more, said Brian Headd of the SBAs Office of Advocacy. That category would include large factories, like auto plants and steel manufacturers.As of last year, the majority of workers had tipped toward small businesses, which employed just under 55 percent of the nations workforce, the BLSs most recent statistics showed.We also checked with Batchelders office about the source of the speakers statement. Spokesman Mike Dittoe gave us two: The National Federation of Independent Businesss Ohio office in Columbus, and a March 2010 report prepared by Headd titled, An Analysis of Small Business and Jobs.Roger Geiger, NFIB/Ohios executive director, both confirmed Batchelders statement and also referred us to the Headd report.Headd also echoed Batchelders sentiment that small businesses are important to the nations economic health. He points out how one in five employees at small firms work part-time, and how a greater percentage of Hispanics, high school students, disabled, elderly, and rural employees work at small businesses.Headd also noted that more than half of all companies start out small, stay small and close after a few years, accounting for 85 percent of job turnover in the country -- which is not necessarily a bad thing. Headd considers the hefty job changes experienced in small businesses to be beneficial and a natural outgrowth of a healthy economy.Although job turnover can be an emotional roller coaster for individuals, small firm job flows are a boon to the economy, Headd wrote in his report. This churning represents the economys constant evolution from outmoded processes and industries to more productive ones, a process he calls creative destruction.Headd sees small businesses as key to the nations recovery from the recession of 2009.With the labor market struggling in recent years, small businesses are a logical group to look to for job recovery as they have such a large role in net job creation, he wrote.BLS researchers confirmed that their most recent statistics indicated that 75 percent of all new hires nationwide were made by small businesses in the second quarter of 2010. Over the past eight years, small businesses made 65 percent of all new hires in the United States, they said. And of small business job creation, nearly three out of four new workers were hired at companies with less than 20 employees.But what about Ohio? Do the states small businesses mirror the national trend?Benjamin Johnson of the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services had data from the federal government on the most recent statewide breakdown, by county, of the total number of workers employed in Ohio, but could not provide specific information to verify Batchelders claim that 75 percent of the jobs created in the state of Ohio are created in small business.Geiger, in the Ohio office of the National Federation of Independent Business, didnt have Ohio-specific data either.And the BLS told us they didnt track that data, either. But researchers there made a point of saying they were sure Batchelders statement was essentially correct. As one pointed out: 99 out of 100 employers are classified as small businesses, so saying 75 percent of all new jobs in Ohio are created by small businesses is hardly different than saying ALL businesses create ALL jobs.So the experts who deal with labor statistics back up Batchelders claim, but we also note that the absence of specific data on Ohio jobs is a point that provides clarification. On the Truth-O-Meter we rate Batchelders statement as Mostly True. In June 2021, as airlines experienced a surge in demand, multiple news outlets reported that American Airlines (AA) was cutting about 1% of its flights in the coming weeks amid bad weather and labor shortages. Reuters reported: "American Airlines said the incredibly quick ramp up of customer demand also came at a time when bad weather caused multi-hour delays over the last few weeks, disrupting flight and crew work hours. The company said some of its vendors were also struggling with labor shortages, impacting the airline's operations." news outlets reported Responding to that latter reason for the cuts, one Twitter user authored the below-displayed tweet that makes several claims about the company's budgeting during the COVID-19 pandemic and allegedly explains why AA was struggling to fill job positions. one Twitter user COVID-19 pandemic   We contacted the tweet's author to learn their process for composing the post, as well as their potential connection to the airline. We have not received a response, but we will update this report when, or if, that changes. Nonetheless, the tweet includes the following claims: Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act Doug Parker But, before we proceed, let us note here: The airline's communication team's statements to news media regarding the upcoming flight cancellations through mid-July (see CNN's story here, CNBC's coverage here, and NBC's article here), including to Snopes, said "labor shortages [among] some of our vendors" (emphasis added) were affecting operations. See the statement we received, for example: here here here   That umbrella term, "vendors," could include companies that operate independently but have a contract with American to provide goods or services for its flights, such as aircraft equipment manufacturers or business that sell blankets or pillows for passengers. Snopes asked a company spokesperson what vendors, specifically, faced employment gaps and impacted flights, and he did not answer the question. While the spokesperson shared other comments (which we included in the sections below), he also did not share a response to critics who believed the company should shift around funds, including those provided by the federal government, so that the CEO received less compensation and rank-and-file staff earned higher paychecks. For that reason and others, this fact check does not address that underlying argument of the tweet. Not quite  but the airline company did take advantage of other federal grants and loans. Let us explain that conclusion. Only companies that qualified as a "small businesses" (criteria here), or had 500 or fewer employees, were eligible for PPP loans. American, on the other hand, documented about 133,700 full-time employees, ranging from pilots to flight attendants to mechanics, federal regulatory documents showed. here regulatory documents showed Rather, AA utilized the government's Payroll Support Program (PSP), a different financial boost established by the CARES Act that provided $25 billion for various airlines' payroll expenses. Payroll Support Program The U.S. Department of the Treasury distributed the money, in part, based on air carriers' payroll expenses from April 2019 through September 2019, and said it "must exclusively be used for the continuation of payment of employee wages, salaries, and benefits." U.S. Department of the Treasury According to that federal agency's database of recipients and AA spokesperson Matt Miller, American was budgeting with $12.7 billion from the program, as of this writing. The majority of that amount (almost double what was described in the viral tweet) was one-time grant money, while about one-third represented loans that the airline carrier needed to pay back. agency's database 12.7 "These funds ensured we could keep our team members on payroll throughout the pandemic despite the significant drop-off in demand for air travel," wrote Miller in an email to Snopes. Yes, Parker, who is paid almost entirely in stock awards, took home $10.66 million in total compensation in 2020, according to Miller and The Dallas Morning News. (The carrier's headquarters is located in Dallas-Fort Worth, making the Dallas newspaper a primary source of news about it.) The Dallas Morning News That compensation was based on the company's profits in 2019 (so it did not factor in the financial struggle of the pandemic), and was his smallest paycheck since taking the helm. The newspaper reported: "Parker's compensation has mostly hovered between $11.1 million and $12.3 million a year during his time as CEO, with the exception of 2013 when he made $17.6 million based largely on bonuses he had for merging his former airline, US Airways, with American Airlines." CEO Parker gave up his cash salary in 2015 to move to the all-stock compensation plan, along with benefits including flights and life insurance premiums. Miller told us: "Being paid in stock ensures his compensation is at-risk, based on the results the company achieves, and aligned with our shareholders interests," he said. "Dougs realizable compensation for 2020 was considerably less  approximately $2.9 million, or 23% of the target." This is false. While the company did cut some supervisor and support staff jobs, and it was true that its workforce overall declined by about 31,000 positions in 2020, it was erroneous to attribute that decrease exclusively to involuntary layoffs. According to annual reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission obtained by Snopes, AA's payroll indeed shrunk from about 133,700 full-time employees at the end of 2019 to roughly 102,700 such workers. That was a 23% workforce reduction, totaling about 31,000 positions. However, neither those regulatory documents, nor a news story by the Dallas Business Journal about them, said that decrease was because executives enacted widespread layoffs. news story by the Dallas Business Journal It was true American briefly furloughed 19,000 employees in fall 2020 and then brought them back weeks later, after the company secured more PSP funding from the federal government. furloughed 19,000 employees Then, months later, news reports said the company warned 13,000 employees of possible lay offs, pending the country's rate of vaccinations and interest in traveling. As of this writing, however, those worker remained in their jobs, Miller told Snopes. news reports But, as we noted, there were some permanent job losses during the pandemic. The airline cut about 30% of its management and administrative positions, totaling roughly 5,000 jobs, according to news reports and Miller. Those were the only involuntarily layoffs, based on our research. We found no evidence of widespread layoffs for employees who maintain the company's operations or deal with customers, like the tweet implied. Rather, Miller said, the company documented tens of thousands fewer workers in 2020 compared to 2019 because it had expanded its "early out program." A slew of front-line workers agreed to voluntarily terminate their employment to take advantage of severance benefits, or to leave the company for months on end for partial compensation. "Ultimately our headcount is smaller than it was before the pandemic, but the vast majority of that reduction is from voluntary departures," Miller said. "Any front-line employees who departed the company did so voluntarily via an early out program. The only involuntary departures were on the management side." In sum, we rate this multi-pronged claim a "Mixture" of true and false information. On 17 January 2017, the web site The Independent published an article about a poem written by Joseph Charles McKenzie which praised President-elect Donald Trump, described the future First Lady as "Melania the Fair," and described Trump's predecessor (Barack Obama) as a tyrant: published Come out for the Domhnall, ye brave men and proud,The scion of Torquil and best of MacLeod!With purpose and strength he came down from his towerTo snatch from a tyrant his ill-gotten power.Now the cry has gone up with a cheer from the crowd:Come out for the Domhnall, the best of MacLeod! When freedom is threatened by slaverys chainsAnd voices are silenced as misery reigns,Well come out for a leader whose courage is trueWhose virtues are solid and long overdue.For, hell never forget us, we men of the crowdWho elected the Domhnall, the best of MacLeod! When crippling corruption polluted our nationAnd plunged our economy into stagnation,As self-righteous rogues took the opulent officeAnd plump politicians reneged on their promise,The forgotten continued to form a great crowdThat defended the Domhnall, the best of MacLeod! The Domhnalls a giver whilst others just take,Neer gaining from that which his hands did not make.A builder of buildings, employing good men,Hes enriched many cities by factors of ten.The honest and true gladly march with the crowdStanding up for the Domhnall, the best of MacLeod! True friend of the migrant from both far and near,He welcomes the worthy, but guards our frontier,Lest a murderous horde, for whom hell is the norm,Should threaten our lives and our nation deform.We immigrants hasten to swell the great crowdComing out for the Domhnall, the best of MacLeod! Academe now lies dead, the old order rots,No longer policing our words and our thoughts;Its ignorant hirelings pretending to teachAre backward in vision, sophomoric in speech.Now we learnd of mind add ourselves to the crowdThat cheers on the Domhnall, the best of MacLeod! The black man, forgotten, in poverty dying,The poor man, the sick man, with young children crying,The soldier abroad and the mother who waits,The young without work or behind prison gates,The veterans, wounded, all welcome the crowdThat fights for the Domhnall, the best of MacLeod! Whilst hapless old harridans flapping their trapsTeach women to look and behave like us chaps,The Domhnall defends the defenseless forlorn;For, a womans first right is the right to be born.Now the bonnie young lassies that fly to the crowdHave a champion in Domhnall, the best of MacLeod! But for all his great wisdom, the braw gallant manIs matched by his children, the handsome Trump clan,And the flower of Europe, Melania the fair,Adds a luster and grace with her long flowing hair.May they flourish and prosper to form a great crowdAround the good Domhnall, the best of MacLeod! Is there man left in Scotland, without base alloy,Who remembers the Wallace, the Bruce, or Rob Roy?Or have five hundred years of a blasphemous lieRobbed your manhood of might that you lay down and die?Get up and walk free, all ye brave men and proud!Long life to the Domhnall, the best of MacLeod! Although this article was published under the headline "Poem celebrating Donald Trump inauguration describes Barack Obama as a 'tyrant,'" The Independent used a more sensational (and less factual) title when they shared this item on social media  "Donald Trump to pay tribute to British heritage at inauguration with poem about Scotland":  L Several other publications also shared this poem in articles claiming that it was "Donald Trump's inauguration poem," misleading readers into believing that this poem would actually be read at the inaugural event. Paper Magazine, for instance, reported that this was the "official poem for President-elect Trump's inauguration:" articles claiming reported The official poem for President-elect Trump's inauguration celebrates the Trump clan's Scottish roots (his mother, Mary Anne Macleod was born and raised in Scotland till she was 18) while taking time to exalt Trump to Christ status, and call President Obama a "tyrant." However, this poem is not an "official" selection for Trump's inauguration, nor was it commissioned by the president-elect. The text of the The Independent's article explained that this poem was merely inspired by Trump's election: The poem, which was not commissioned by Mr Trump or his transition team, refers to snatching power from a tyrant who has ill-gotten power. It was written by celebrated American poet Joseph Charles McKenzie of the Society of Classical Poets. The group said the inspiration behind the poem is to touch on the classical poetry existing throughout American history, and the inauguration poem marks important moments in US political history". This "inauguration" poem was first published by the web site ClassicPoets.org on 15 January 2017. The group did not claim that the poem would be read at the inauguration, but their version of the poem was accompanied by instructions for how the it would theoretically be presented if it were used at the inauguration: published  The refrains at the end of each stanza are to be recited by the Inaugural crowd. A Pibroch is a rallying bagpipe tune and is pronounced like PEA-brohgh. Domhnall, the Scottish form of the name Donald, is pronounced like TONE-all Torquil was the royal progenitor of the MacLeods of Lewis, the outer hebridean island and birthplace of President Trumps immigrant mother, Mary Anne MacLeod. When the group shared the poem on Facebook, the lyric was accompanied by a message imploring Trump to include the poem, making it clear that this poem had not been selected for this purpose in the first place: shared No Republican has had an inaugural poem. Trump should be the first... This poem is not listed in the schedule of events planned for the inauguration.  listed When reached for comment, the Society of Classical Poets confirmed that this poem had not been chosen as the official poem of Donald Trump's inauguration: Right. Not official. We are just recommending it for the event.   MacKenzie, Joseph.  "Inaugural Poem for Donald J. Trump."
  Classical Poets.  15 January 2017. Claim:  The Red Lobster chain is about to close its doors and go out of business for good.  Example:  [Collected via Facebook, December 2013] Is Red Lobster closing?   Origins:  Red Lobster is the ubiquitous casual dining restaurant chain operated by Darden Restaurants of Orlando, Florida, which boasts over seven hundred outlets worldwide, including (in addition to the United States) operations in Canada, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Japan. In September 2013, the  Darden Restaurants corporation (which also owns the Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Bahama Breeze, Capital Grille and Seasons 52 restaurant chains) reported disappointing financial results, including a 37.6% decrease in earnings per share and a $41 million drop in net earnings.  A fair chunk of those disappointing financial results were attributed to the poor performance of the Red Lobster chain, which saw a 5.2% decline in sales relative to the same quarter of the previous year, and a 3.8% decline in same-restaurant traffic.   These results prompted Darden, under pressure from investors, to announce in mid-December 2013 that they planned to separate themselves from the Red Lobster chain by selling it or spinning it off as a separate company: Under pressure from an activist hedge fund, Darden announced that it would dispose of the chain that gave it life  Red Lobster  as one of several steps meant to bolster its stock price. The company plans to shed Red Lobster through a tax-free spinoff to shareholders, but would be interested in a sale if it could raise more money. Darden's plan follows months of questions and pressure from investors and analysts over how it planned to bring back consumers after the recession. Darden is one of the biggest companies in the casual dining industry, with a market value of $6.7 billion, but its core chains have had stagnant growth. Though Red Lobster served as the basis for the Darden empire, it has become less important to the company over time. Members of the management team said that they expected same-restaurant sales for the chain to fall 4 to 5 percent this year. Separating the low-growth brand would let its new management team focus on running the company for its significant cash flows, while letting the rest of the company focus on its other brands' needs, including different marketing and pricing strategies. This announcement about Red Lobster's future was interpreted by some casual news consumers as meaning that the Red Lobster chain would imminently be going out of business, but a Darden spokesman quickly moved to quell such rumors: The Red Lobster restaurant chain brushed aside reports that it will be closing its doors. Rich Jeffers, a spokesman for Darden Restaurants Inc., which owns the chain, said the rumor may have started after the website LA Weekly published a story that the company faced an "uncertain future." A torrent of tweets and other online media followed with reports that the chain was closing. "We are not closing any restaurants," Jeffers [said]. The confusion may also be linked to Darden's announcement that it plans to sell or spin off the Red Lobster chain into a separate company. Several months later, in May 2014, Darden Restaurants announced that they had agreed to sell the Red Lobster chain to Golden Gate Capital for $2.1 billion: Darden Restaurants announced that private equity firm Golden Gate Capital has agreed to buy seafood chain Red Lobster for $2.1 billion in cash. In December [2013] the restaurant group revealed plans to release its oldest but worst performing segment into the wild. The initial plan was to create two independent companies, but after considering a number of structures  ranging from selling to a strategic partner to giving up the real estate assets while holding onto the brand  Darden concluded the Golden Gate deal would create the most value, the company said in a statement. Nonetheless, as The Motley Fool warned back in December 2013, Darden's shedding of Red Lobster could still possibly sound a death knell for the chain: The Motley Fool It's not so much that Red Lobster is a damaged brand, but rather that its results reflect all too closely the trends seen all across the casual-dining sector. Releasing it back into the wild on its own may only cause the restaurant chain to fail. It's clear Red Lobster can't compete on its own yet, and until it can find a way to bring diners back to the restaurant, it would be foolhardy to cast it off. It's possible that economic circumstances may lead to the closure of some Red Lobster outlets in upcoming years, or even the eventual demise of the chain itself. But those possibilities are currently only speculative and uncertain; there's no definitive reason to expect that the entire chain will be closing its doors anytime soon.   Last updated:  16 May 2014    Kim, Susanna.  "Red Lobster Says It's Not Closing Its 705 Restaurants."   ABC News.  27 December 2013.    McGrath, Maggie.  "Red Lobster and Olive Garden Drag Darden Lower."   Forbes.  20 September 2013.    Sharf, Samantha.  "Red Lobster Caught by Golden Gate Capital for $2.1 Billion."   Forbes.  16 May 2014. Snopes is still fighting an infodemic of rumors and misinformation surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, and you can help. Find out what we've learned and how to inoculate yourself against COVID-19 misinformation. Read the latest fact checks about the vaccines. Submit any questionable rumors and advice you encounter. Become a Founding Member to help us hire more fact-checkers. And, please, follow the CDC or WHO for guidance on protecting your community from the disease.  fighting Find out Read Submit Become a Founding Member CDC WHO In attempt to ring the alarm on supposed deceptive practices by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), hard-line conservatives including U.S. President Donald Trump promoted the idea in August 2020 that the public health agency suddenly changed its methods for reporting COVID-19 mortality statistics. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention And as a result, viral social media posts alleged, America only tallied about 9,000 COVID-19 fatalities, or roughly 6% of the more than 150,000 deaths widely reported by politicians, scientists, and news reporters. Many believers, including conspiracy theorist Jeff Berwick, dubbed the alleged change by the CDC evidence that people other than his followers were exaggerating the seriousness of the pandemic, and that everyone should be skeptical of rules on social distancing that halt the economy. In a Sept. 1 video, for example, he said: "It's been proven by the CDC  [the pandemic] is nothing, it was absolutely nothing. Zero. 9,000 people? That's nothing." video,   Numerous readers asked Snopes to investigate the matter. Several inquiries included a link to the hyperpartisan, junk news website The Gateway Pundit, or a link to another conspiratorial web page that phrased the alleged revelation like this: link The Gateway Pundit web page "The CDC quietly released new covid numbers showing those who solely died from the virus was only 6% (9,210) of the total deaths (153,504). 94% of those who died, did so because they had existing health conditions." Additionally, The Gateway Pundit page claimed, "the overwhelming majority" of reported COVID-19 deaths were among "very old Americans"  without going into specifics on what age population that meant  and suggested nefarious intentions on the part of the CDC to try to change its guidance without anyone noticing. Versions of this notion circulated widely online in summer 2020, in part because of support from American politicians such as Trump. In two retweets  one by his campaign adviser that linked to the Gateway Pundit page and another by a supporter of the unfounded QAnon conspiracy theory (screenshot below)  Trump endorsed the claim, essentially denigrating scientific evidence by his own health advisers, Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx. However, as of this writing, Twitter had removed the below-displayed post for violating its terms of service. American politicians Trump his campaign adviser QAnon conspiracy theory terms of service   First, to unpack the claim, let's be clear about how COVID-19  which is the disease caused by the coronavirus dubbed SARS-CoV-2  attacks the body and can become deadly. According to an article in the journal Science, a highly credible scientific publication: article Once inside, the virus hijacks the cells machinery, making myriad copies of itself and invading new cells.  As the virus multiplies, an infected person may shed copious amounts of it, especially during the first week or so. Symptoms may be absent at this point. Or the virus new victim may develop a fever, dry cough, sore throat, loss of smell and taste, or head and body aches. If the immune system doesnt beat back SARS-CoV-2 during this initial phase, the virus then marches down the windpipe to attack the lungs, where it can turn deadly. In other words, SARS-CoV-2 attacks lung cells, and that assault on a person's respiratory system can greatly exacerbate other preexisting conditions. That means COVID-19 patients run the risk of previously manageable health problems turning fatal  including cardiac arrest, liver failure, or lung scarring  after they're infected with SARS-CoV-2. Put another way, Ryan McNamara, a virologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, in a series of tweets compared the SARS-CoV-2 virus with the human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV, which causes AIDS. He wrote: series of tweets After years of (HIV) virus spread, and in the absence of treatment, a patient infected with HIV will develop AIDS. [...] During this state of HIV progression, white blood cells called T-cells are depleted. This can allow co-infecting pathogens to spread unchecked or tumor cells to grow & metastasize. Hence pneumonia & AIDS-associated cancers are leading causes of death in HIV+ patients.    Next, we investigated how the CDC compiles COVID-19 death toll data. Since the viral posts did not specify what "numbers" by the CDC to which they were alleging nefariousness, we considered the CDC's Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) web page, which is a compilation of death certificates updated weekly by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Additionally, we obtained an April 2020 document by the World Health Organization titled, "International Guidelines For Certification and Classification (Coding) of COVID-19 As Cause of Death," which stated that medical examiners must include as much detail as possible based on records and lab testing when they're filling out death certificates. For example, a death certification for a patient who was infected with SARS-CoV-2 and afterwards developed pneumonia and fatal respiratory distress would list all three conditions as causes of death (see example below). document   The document also said death certificates for people who suffered from chronic conditions, such as coronary artery disease or diabetes, before their exposure to the coronavirus would list those conditions in addition to COVID-19. The coronavirus would still be labeled the underlying cause of death  or the disease that initiated the train of events leading directly to death," per the WHO's definition  since the preexisting health issues were likely exacerbated by the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection. definition Next, we considered the CDC's process for analyzing those death certificates that list COVID-19. Its website explained: explained: When a person dies, the cause of death is determined by the certifier  the physician, medical examiner, or coroner who reports it on the death certificate. States register all death certificates and send them to [NCHS], where they are used to produce the nations official death statistics. [...] When COVID-19 is reported as a cause of death on the death certificate, it is coded and counted as a death due to COVID-19. COVID-19 should not be reported on the death certificate if it did not cause or contribute to the death. [...] Complete means describing a clear chain of events from the immediate to the underlying cause of death, reporting any other conditions that contributed to death, and providing information that is specific. In short, the CDC compiles mortality statistics that are based on all possible causes of death for one individual. So if a diabetes patient with high blood pressure was infected with COVID-19  which can target blood vessels  and they die because their blood vessels were already so damaged, the CDC would consider their death related to both the coronavirus and diabetes. (According to the CDC database of death certificate data, that was the case for more than 27,500 people.) data As of this writing, the CDC last updated its mortality statistics on Sept. 3, 2020. At that point, the agency said 171,787 death certificates included COVID-19 since the beginning of the U.S. outbreak in February 2020. And alongside the coronavirus, the majority of documents also listed comorbidities, or additional health issues that can either worsen or develop after the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection. For instance, 71,700 included influenza or pneumonia and COVID-19 as potential causes of death. However, fueling the conspiracy theory, the CDC web page stated: "For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause [of death] mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death." That meant, yes, medical investigators believed only 6% of COVID-19 patients died from the coronavirus alone. Those patients had no reported comorbidities. However, it was dangerously wrong to misinterpret that fact to mean that the remaining fatalities (or 94 percent) died from health issues other than the coronavirus. Rather, most people's underlying cause of death was COVID-19 and the virus either intensified or caused other illnesses that contributed to patients' death. Note: The "6%" claim was not the first attempt by COVID-19 conspiracy theorists to allege without any substantial evidence that the CDC was nefariously compiling data to trick people into thinking the coronavirus was more serious than it actually is. In spring 2020, for instance, they attempted to ring the alarm on the agency supposedly inflating COVID-19 death numbers for political reasons, but in reality the alleged discrepancy was a result of comparing two separate data sources that report different measurements. (See our analysis into that claim here.) here The death certification statistics, in short, prove that people with preexisting health problems  such as asthma or hypertension  face higher risk for serious illness, or dying, if they're infected with COVID-19, according to Bob Anderson, lead mortality statistician at NCHS. He said in a statement to NBC News: "These data are consistent with CDC guidance that those with underlying medical conditions are at greater risk for severe illness and death from COVID-19." NBC News: Additionally, Fauci explained the phenomena in a Sept. 1 interview on the ABC program "Good Morning America: Sept. 1 interview The point that the CDC was trying to make was that a certain percentage of [COVID-19 deaths] had nothing else but just COVID. That does not mean that someone who has hypertension or diabetes who dies of COVID didn't die of COVID-19  they did. So the numbers that you've been hearing  the 180,000-plus deaths  are real deaths from COVID-19. ...It's not 9,000 deaths from COVID-19. Next, we found data to address another aspect of the fringe theory: that the "overwhelming majority" of reported COVID-19 deaths were among people of a "very advanced age." For the purpose of this report, we considered that group to be people aged 85 or older. And according to the CDC death certificate data, 53,000 documents for that population listed COVID-19 as a potential cause of death, accounting for about one-third of the total, or less than the majority. We should note here: Epidemiologists and health officials have been up front with the fact that COVID-19 patients who are older  as well as those who have underlying health problems  are at greater risk for serious problems. "As you get older, your risk of being hospitalized for COVID-19 increases. Everyone, especially older adults and others at increased risk of severe illness, should take steps to protect themselves from getting COVID-19," according to the CDC. Eight out of 10 people who have died as a result of COVID-19 in the U.S. were over the age of 65, per the agency's data. the CDC Lastly, we looked for any evidence to confirm or deny that the CDC attempted to "quietly" adjust its mortality statistics under the public's radar. Bob Anderson, lead mortality statistician at NCHS, told NBC News in a statement the death certificate data does not represent new information as NCHS has been publishing this same information since the outset when we began posting data on COVID-19 deaths on our web site.  NBC News In sum, considering the way in which the coronavirus impacts the human body, the way the CDC compiles data from death certificates  listing comorbidities that were either developed or exacerbated by COVID-19  as well as the fact that one-third of COVID-19 fatalities were people aged 85 or older, we rate this claim  The Dollar Vigilante. "Shocking Admission: CDC Says Over 90% of Deaths Weren't COVAIDS19 and 90% of Tests False Positives."
 LBRY. Accessed 2 September 2020. Hoft, Joe. "SHOCK REPORT: This Week CDC Quietly Updated COVID-19 Numbers  Only 9,210 Americans Died From COVID-19 Alone - Rest Had Different Other Serious Illnesses."
 The Gateway Pundit. 29 August 2020. Dale, Daniel, and Gumbrecht, Jamie. "Twitter Removes QAnon Supporter's False Claims About Coronavirus Death Statistics That Trump Had Retweeted."
 CNN. 31 August 2020. Factba.se. "Donald Trump - Deleted Tweets."
 Accessed 2 September 2020. Saving the Republic. "Updated CDC Covid Numbers Show Only 6% of Total US Deaths Actually Died Solely From Virus."
 Accessed 2 September 2020. ABC News. "Dr. Fauci Weighs in on 6M US Coronavirus Cases, Deaths and CoMorbidity."
 Accessed 2 September 2020. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "National Center for Health Statistics,"
 Accessed 2 September 2020. Flagg, Anna. "Mounting US Deaths Reveal An Outsize Toll On People Of Color."
 The Associated Press. 21 August 2020. World Health Organization. "Violence And Injury Prevention."
 Accessed September 3 2020.