Was there a $102 billion decrease in the National Debt following Donald Trump's Inauguration?
On 30 July 2017, the conservative Truth Division web site reported that the United States' national debt had fallen to a "surprising" extent in the seven months since the inauguration of President Donald Trump: Truth Division President Donald Trump and his administration are undoing the governments rampant spending that occurred under former President Obamas watch.  According the U.S. Treasurys direct record, a surprising amount of money has been saved over the course of seven months. On January 20th, the day Trump was inaugurated, the total debt was $19,947,304,555,212.49. On July 30th, seven short months later, its at $19,844,938,940,351.37. Overall the debt has decreased by $102,365,614,861.12. We have checked these numbers and set them in context, and found that the national debt did indeed fall by $102 billion between 20 January and the end of July 2017. This decline is also historically remarkable, in both absolute and percentage terms. This six-month fall in the national debt is also significant when measured against the size of the overall economy. National debt  the basics  The national debt is, in brief, the total value of what the federal government owes, and is made up of accumulated annual deficits (when the government spends more than it receives in taxes and other income). It is made up of "public debt" and "intragovernmental holdings." Public debt is, essentially, debt held by sources outside the central government. Intragovernmental holdings are debts between agencies within the federal government, in the form of government trust funds, such as Social Security trust funds.  National debt  the numbers According to figures published by the Treasury Department's Bureau of Fiscal Services on the TreasuryDirect web site, the national debt was $19.84 trillion on 27 July 2017 (not 30 July, as stated by Truth Division. On 20 January, it was $19.95 trillion. TreasuryDirect That shows a fall of $102.37 billion, or 0.51 percent, over a period of 131 business days. To set that in context, we analyzed national debt data stretching back to 12 July 1993, and examined every 131-day period in the last 24 years. You can download a spreadsheet containing all the relevant data here. here Debt-to-GDP ratio The national debt, however, is best viewed with reference to the overall economy. If two countries have about the same national debt, the one with the smaller economy will likely be more constrained in its spending, whereas the larger economy  despite having the same level of debt  will be less affected in terms of economic and fiscal policy. A good way of checking this is to compare the size of the debt to the size of the economy, measured as GDP (gross domestic product). GDP is the combined market value of all goods and services produced in a given jurisdiction (in this case, the United States). This comparison between the size of the national debt and the size of the economy is known as the debt-to-GDP ratio.  While the Treasury Department publishes the national debt for every business day, GDP is only published on a quarterly basis (once every three months). In order to compare the debt-to-GDP ratio on 27 July with the same figure on Inauguration Day, we have to get a little bit creative.  For example, we know that the United States GDP was $18.9 trillion at the end of December 2016 (the end of the fourth quarter), according to figures published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Bureau of Economic Analysis We also know that the national debt on 30 December 2016 was $19.98 trillion, so the estimated debt-to-GDP ratio on that date was 105.67 percent. In other words, the debts of the United States federal government were 5.67 percent bigger than the size of the Unites States economy (when measured by GDP). At the end of the first quarter of 2017 (the end of March), GDP was $19.06 trillion. And we know that on 31 March, the national debt was $19.85 trillion, meaning the debt-to-GDP ratio was 104.14 percent  a healthier number than at the end of December. But to estimate GDP for all the days in between 30 December and 31 March (including 20 January, Inauguration Day) we have to cheat a little bit. You can read more about our methodology by downloading this spreadsheet, but here's what our estimates revealed: Causes The Truth Division, a conservative, openly pro-Trump web site, clearly attributes this decline in the national debt to the president, claiming he and his administration are "undoing the government's rampant spending" and "keeping his promises regarding fiscal responsibility". However, the article does not cite any examples of actions taken by Donald Trump which would support this conclusion.  Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and former economic adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, dismissed any claims that President Trump is responsible:  Trump hasn't legislated anything that would have any impact on the fiscal accounts, so it simply doesn't make sense on the face it.  Instead, Bernstein told us, the cause of the drop in the debt is simple  the federal debt ceiling that has been in place since March 2017. If you look at a plot of the total debt right now, it's holding steady at the limit, because to go over the limit is unconstitutional. So you either have to engage in extraordinary measures or eventually default, and the latter is unimaginable so right now Treasury is engaged in the former. That is, they are delaying or suspending various payments that need to be made, particularly within some of their intra-governmental accounts... By those measures, they can hold the national debt where it is for a certain amount of time.  Eventually, Bernstein says, the debt ceiling will have to be lifted, and the payments that had been delayed will cause the national debt to increase once again.  That pattern can be seen in this chart, which shows the national debt from January 2011 up to the end of July 2017. There are four flat lines showing four periods during which the debt ceiling was frozen: from May to August 2011; May to October 2013; March to October 2015; and the ongoing period since March 2017.  2011 2013 2015   Conclusion The Truth Division article accurately describes the extent to which the national debt fell between the inauguration of Donald Trump in January 2017 and the end of July of the same year. And it rightly describes this fall as "surprising", since it ranks among the very largest 131-day declines in the national debt since July 1993, both in absolute and percentage terms.  Similarly, the decline in both components of the national debt  public debt and intragovernmental holdings  was highly significant between 20 January and 27 July 2017, both in absolute and percentage terms, and as we have shown, the national debt has fallen by an estimated 2.25 percent since Inauguration Day  even when measured against the size of the overall Unites States economy. Whether or not any actions or decisions made by Donald Trump have caused or contributed to these historically remarkable declines in the debt is a question that goes beyond the scope of this particular fact check. Unfortunately, the  national debt resumed its upward march in August 2017 and by mid-August 2018 stood at about $21.3 trillion (up $1.4 trillion since Inauguration Day), so the early 2017 drop has not proved to be a long-term trend. national debt A spreadsheet containing all the data relevant to this article can be downloaded here. here Bureau of Fiscal Services.  "Frequently Asked Questions About the Public Debt".
 TreasuryDirect.gov.  1 April 2016.
Claim:  During an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Barack Obama said, "a strong government hand is needed to assure that wealth is distributed more equitably." Status:  False. Example:  [Collected via e-mail, July 2008] Well, Barack has finally decided to step up and tell us what he has in mind for us with his promises of 'change.'  Just a few short days ago, he had an interview with the Wall Street Journal to further discuss his economic plans/policies for the future and he spelled it out quite clearly.  As you can see from the excerpt quote from that interview (below), he plans on officially doing away with capitalism and replacing it with his much favored system of socialism.  Many of us already knew of his strong socialist tendencies in the past, but he has now put it out there officially on record.  It is amazing that this article, and specifically this quote, is getting overlooked, especially when he is so direct and brazen about his plans.  Every single American who works for a living should be absolutely scared spitless.   Pass this along to everyone you can. Quote from Wall Street Journal: "a strong government hand is needed to assure that wealth is distributed more equitably." Barack Obama, WSJ, 6/17/08 If this doesn't scare Republicans to get out the vote, I don't know what would!! Origins:  This item comes from a 17 June 2008 Wall Street Journal article about Senator Barack Obama's economic plans for the U.S., some of which was based on an interview Senator Obama gave to that publication.not article Sen. Obama cited new economic forces to explain what appears like a return to an older-style big-government Democratic platform skeptical of market forces. "Globalization and technology and automation all weaken the position of workers," he said, and a strong government hand is needed to assure that wealth is distributed more equitably. (The phrase "a strong government hand is needed to assure that wealth is distributed more equitably" also does not appear in the Wall Street Journal's transcript of Senator Obama's interview.) transcript As for whether the phrase in question is a fair summary of Senator Obama's economic philosophy (whether or not he actually uttered those words), here is what he  said during the portions of the interview apparently summarized by that phrase: I do believe the tax policies over the last eight years have been badly skewed towards the winners of the global economy. And I do think there is a function for tax policy in making sure that everybody benefits from globalization or at least the benefits and burdens are shared a little more easily. If, as some talk about, we've  got a winner-take-all economy where the highly skilled, highly educated are reaping huge rewards and the unskilled or even semi-skilled are getting a much smaller share of the economy, then our tax policies can help cushion some of the blow through providing health care. So if people lose their jobs they're not losing their health care as well. That actually makes a more flexible work force that makes workers more mobile and less resistant to change. If we've got investments in education, that will make us more competitive in the long run. We've got to pay for that like anything else. But it would be a mistake to say I view our tax code only as a distribution question. I also think that our tax code has come to distort a lot of economic decision making so I'd like to see simplification as part of an overall tax agenda. On the corporate side, for example, one of the things I've asked my folks to look at is: Are there ways we can close existing loopholes in tax havens at the same time as we're lowering overall rates? We've got this new problem: The biggest problem with our tax code when it comes to the business side is that we have one of the highest tax rates  corporate tax rates  on paper but our effective tax rate is one of the lowest ... You know, how much you pay in taxes as a corporation a lot of times is going to depend on how good your lobbyist is, as opposed to any sound economic theories. So those distorting effects I'd like to actually remove and eliminate from our tax system, but obviously that's a complicated and difficult task. The last time we did it was in 1986. We're going to have to, I think, revisit that.  I say that the combination of globalization and technology and automation all weaken the position of workers. I would add an anti-union climate to that list. But all weakens the position of workers, particularly blue-collar workers, in the economy, and some of it is just historical. You know after World War II,we were in this unique position where Europe was decimated, Japan was decimated. China was off the grid because of Mao. And so we didn't have a lot of competition out there, and now other countries are rising and automation has supplanted a lot of work that used to be done by middle-class workers. We have drastically increased productivity since 1995, and there was the theory that if you increase productivity enough some of these problems of living standards would solve themselves. But what we've seen is rising productivity, rising corporate profits but flat-lining or even declining wages and incomes for the average family. What that says is that it's going to be important for us to pay attention to not only growing the pie, which is always critical, but also some attention to how it is sliced. I do not believe that those two things  fair distribution and robust economic growth  are mutually exclusive. You get to a point, I think, if you have a participatory income tax, for example, where you might be discouraging work because marginal rates are so high. You might undoubtedly get to a point where the capital gain and dividend taxes are so high that they distort investment decisions and you're weaker economically. But you know if you've got a sensible policy that says, we're going to capture some of the nation's economic growth ... and reinvest it in things we know have to be done, like science and technology research or fixing our energy policy, and then that is actually going to be a spur to productivity and not an inhibitor. Last updated:  17 August 2008    Sources:   Davis, Bob and Amy Chozicks.  "Obama Plans Spending Boost, Possible Cut in Business Tax."   The Wall Street Journal.  17 June 2008  (P. A1).    Davis, Bob and Amy Chozicks.  "Barack Obama on Economics: 'We're Going Through a Big Shift.'"   The Wall Street Journal.  17 June 2008. A radio host recently asked Gov. Rick Scott for an update on his trademark 7-7-7 plan -- creating 700,000 jobs in seven years in seven steps. (We're trackingthat promise on the Scott-O-Meter. )Scott said Floridas economy is getting better in a lot of ways.Were doing well. Were at a three-year low on our unemployment in this state... We generated around 100,000 net jobs so far, if you look at the federal numbers, he said in the April 18, 2012,interviewwith Orlando-based station WDBO. But if you look at the state numbers, about 230,000 people that were on unemployment when I took office are not on unemployment now.When you look around the state, tourism is up, the home markets up, home sales are up, home prices are up. So good things are happening, but we still have 900,000 people out of work, he said.What stuck out to us is his claim that 230,000 fewer people receive unemployment benefits than when he took office 15 months ago. That sounds like a drastic decrease, which Scott is taking credit for and in turn using as evidence that the states economy is improving.A spokeswoman with the states Department of Economic Opportunity, the agency that manages the unemployment compensation program, responded to our request about Scotts claim. Spokeswoman Nancy Blum said the number of people receiving unemployment compensation dropped from 561,736 on Jan. 31, 2011, to 345,052 on March 31, 2012. Thats a total decline of 216,684.Thats pretty close to about 230,000, which is the number Scott offered.Whether Scott is right to take credit for the decline -- and whether that is translating to a better Florida economy -- is more complicated.In 2011 and 2012, Scott and Florida lawmakers made a series of changes to the states unemployment compensation program that generally make it harder for people to receive benefits.Among them: Meanwhile, businesses got tax breaks. A 2012 bill reduces unemployment compensation taxes for businesses by at least $50 per employee, with savings of $276 million the first year.The Miami Workers Center asked the U.S. Department of Labors civil rights division to investigate Floridas unemployment compensation system over allegations that these changes act as barriers to people who deserve checks but cant get them for lack of computer access or reading skills. A Labor department spokesman told us the investigation is ongoing.The governors number in and of itself does not demonstrate any kind of economic recovery in Florida, said Valory Greenfield, staff attorney for Florida Legal Services, which represents the workers center. What it tells me based on our experience working with claimants is that fewer people who are potentially eligible are getting into the program.In fact, since August 2011 the department has denied 131,115 applicants for failing to comply with the new law, mostly for failing to fulfill the work search or the initial skills assessment.Those denials resulted in a $30.3 million savings. Economists said Scott's number, while accurate, isn't necessarily a great economic measure on its own. They also said it's too soon to tell if Florida's more stringent eligibility requirements play a big role in the declining number of recipients. Part of the drop-off could be attributed to people whose benefits have expired. Since December 2011, 30,600 people have exhausted all state and federal unemployment benefits, according to the department.So far I havent been able to see any hard data or evidence to quantify (either) effect, said Mekael Teshome, PNC Financial Services Group economist.Whats more relevant, Teshome said, is that jobless claims have been coming down since their peak in mid 2009, well before Scott took office. That somewhat undermines the idea that the drop is thanks to Scott. In fact, if you started counting in 2010 instead of 2011 when Scott took office, even fewer people -- 300,770 -- are receiving unemployment benefits. Some experts also pointed to the contracting size of the labor force, which helps to lower the unemployment rate but also indicates some people are no longer looking for work. About 15,000 people left the labor force from February, according to the statesMarch 2012 labor report. The 15,000-person drop in the labor force was part of the reason why the unemployment rate fall from 9.4 percent in February to 9 percent in March.Some of those are people whose benefits ran out and are now not looking for work, said Chris McCarty, director of the University of Floridas Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Some of those are retirees who have left the labor force permanently.Our rulingScotts claim that 230,000 fewer people are receiving unemployment benefits than when he entered office is pretty close to the actual drop (216,684). A couple of caveats here. The figure is not completely an indicator that the economy is improving, as Scott suggests, and is somewhat the result of a strict new state law. Also, the trend of jobless claims started falling in mid 2009, more than a year before Scott took office. That undercuts, to a point, the suggestion Scott should get the credit. Scotts statement is accurate but can use some additional information. Thats our definition of Mostly True. On 19 June 2015, a controversial doctor named Jeffrey Bradstreet was found dead in a river by a local fisherman from what the local sheriff's office later determined was a self-inflicted gunshot wound to his chest. Bradstreet was an outspoken proponent of the discredited theory that vaccines cause autism, as well as a practitioner of and an evangelist  for a fringe remedy derived from human blood known as GcMAF (illegally advertised as a cure for everything from cancer to autism). practitioner evangelist  GcMAF His death came just days after his Georgia clinic was raided by the federal agents looking for GcMAF or other unlicensed medical treatments. On the day he was found, a Swiss clinic associated with a company that Bradstreet had frequently promoted and which used GcMAF, was raided after five patients died (though it is not clear if those five patients died from GcMAF or some other cause). raided associated His family, not convinced in the official conclusion that his death was a suicide, hired a private investigator to look for indications of foul play, which provided fodder for internet conspiracy theorists -- many suggested he had been murdered by someone working for the pharmaceutical, medical, and regulatory establishments. hired Erin Elizabeth, the founder of Health Nut News, has taken this sentiment and run with it, arguing that Bradstreets death was not only suspicious, but far from an isolated incident. Her post on Bradstreet provided a gateway into what would become the central focus of her work over the next year and a half -- unraveling the mystery around what she claims are the suspicious deaths of over 60 doctors of holistic medicine. Her post claims Her efforts have caught the attention of countless other conspiracy-minded web sites, including Natural News and Alex Jones InfoWars. Aspects of the narrative are allegedly being developed into a movie, and on 30 April 2017, Elizabeth was featured on an episode of Investigation Discovery Channels Scene of the Crime, with Tony Harris that focused on Bradstreet's death. Natural News InfoWars allegedly on an episode Elizabeth first wrote about Bradstreets death on 23 June 2015, in a post implying (but not demonstrating) there was more to the story than met the eye, and citing Bradstreet's family and friends' doubt over the official cause of death as proof. Building off of the success of that article, Elizabeth has expanded what she calls her unintentional series to include over 50 posts on Health Nut News. wrote Frequent breaking headlines and Elizabeths repeatedly stated fears for the safety of partner, Joseph Mercola, a prominent holistic doctor with an extensive web site, have added a sense of urgency. Her posts, often devoid of details that provide any tangible link between events, almost invariably tie the deaths if not directly, then by not-at-all-subtle innuendo, to the conspiracy narrative created in the Bradstreet story. stated This-bait-and-switch started right away. For example, in her report on the case of chiropractor Bruce Hedendal on 1 July 2015, who was found dead in his car, reportedly of natural causes, she implies (but never expands on) a link to Bradstreet: Bruce Hedendal The second doctor is Dr. Bruce Hedendal, DC, PhD of Boca Roton, Fl. who died suddenly on Fathers Day, leaving behind a beautiful family. Sources tell me that he was found dead in his car; there had been no accident and it wasnt running. He had exercised earlier at an event, but we dont want to speculate as the authorities have yet to rule on his cause of death. [...] Both Dr Hedendal and Dr. Bradstreet had dealt with run ins with the feds in the past. In fact, Dr. Bradstreets office was just raided by the FDA days before he died. In this post, we critically and systematically examine each person that Elizabeth has included in her series to see if suggestions of linked causes or outright conspiracy hold up. In doing so, we demonstrate that Elizabeths series fails to a) coherently articulate the conspiracy, b) consistently utilize the same list of victims, or c) demonstrate any connection between the victims whatsoever. What Is the Conspiracy? Elizabeth, who repeatedly stresses that she has no proof of a connection between any of these cases, generally suggests that there have been a large and underreported number of holistic doctors whose deaths were suspicious or unexplained. In its early iterations in the summer of 2015, the claims suggested a local Florida connection (Bradstreet had moved from Florida to Georgia), as she wrote in the 21 July 2015 post: post Yet another doctor was just found murdered inside his home here on the East Coast of Florida. This makes six doctors to be found dead in the last month, from this region of the country alone. Four out of the six were found dead here in Florida. As the series progressed, however, the geographic and chronologic window widened, with later reports coming from numerous states across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, the Caribbean island of Grenada, and the United Kingdom. Chronologically, the series has expanded retroactively to include incidents that predate Bradstreets death, going back as early as the summer of 2014. incidents summer of 2014 Other aspects of the story that have been broadened with its telling and retelling are the defining characteristics of the alleged victims of the conspiracy. In some cases, the doctors that Elizabeth includes have no connection to holistic medicine whatsoever (despite her headlines), and in other cases the link to holistic medicine is extremely tenuous and based on observations such as liked Facebook pages, veganism, or an openness to preventive medicine.  Elizabeth herself does not offer any suggestions or explications for motive, but strongly suggests the link lies within their alternative approach to medicine, as she does in her most recent recap of the series: recap Some of the biggest skeptics, those who rolled their eyes at the first few deaths, are now wondering if there isnt a connection. There have been theories, from GcMAF to CBD oil, but I dont think all doctors used both of these treatments. Im not convinced either is the smoking gun, but might hold part of the answer. There are several unsolved murders here (and some alleged suicides, most still under investigation), and I sincerely hope they get to the bottom of this as again, we knew several of these amazing doctors personally. The dubious (and unsubstantiated) shared connections of GcMAF and CBD oil -- a non-psychoactive component of cannabis used primarily for pain management -- among these doctors is about as close to a motive as you will find on Health Nut News. Still, it has been enough fodder for others to attach their own pet theories tosome conspiracy peddlers focus on GcMAF despite the fact that almost none of the other doctors were involved in it, while others tie the conspiracy more generally to the heavy-handed interference of the federal government. peddlers Who Are the Victims? Elizabeth claims that well over 60 victims, who are mostly holistic doctors have died suspiciously. She has not published a definitive list, but when she recaps the growing list of departed doctors, she posts a photo montage of the alleged victims faces. Without a clear tally from Elizabeth, we took it upon ourselves to generate a list of the doctors whose deaths she has said were suspicious. The task proved complex because many of her reports come with the caveat that they are not part of the official series but are nonetheless included in her photo montage. Elizabeth told us via email that this inconsistency stems from advice she got from a reporter: After talking to a seasoned reporter in NY, I decided he was correct I couldn't pick and choose who to put into this series so I included all of them and usually wrote about right after their deaths were announced. Our list includes 61 doctors (provided for your own fact-checking pleasure on this Google spreadsheet) and is derived from Elizabeths posts, reverse image searches of the collage of victims faces, and discussions with Elizabeth herself. 56 of the doctors on our list come from her collage (which includes two duplicate faces). Elizabeth sent us links to an additional five posts about deaths that she has not yet included in the photo montage. Google spreadsheet   As we will show below, of these now 61 doctors, all but five can easily be excluded from any conspiracy attacking alternative medical practice. The remaining five cases, while perhaps not without some intrigue, are far from sufficient proof of of any large scale conspiracy against alternative health practitioners. Elizabeth Herself Has Already Excluded 14 of the 61 Cases As Elizabeths conspiracy claims have expanded, she has taken to posting about deaths that even she admits are not part of her list of dead holistic doctors. Yet, she includes these doctors in her photo montage and has posted about questions surrounding their deaths on Health Nut News. questions These fourteen doctors include five chiropractors who died in car accidents (Chris Coffman, David Knotts, Thomas Eynon, William Snow and Janelle A. Bottorff) introduced with this caveat: five chiropractors  this caveat Im not including these officially in my holistic series of doctors who have been found dead or murdered, but have had more than one of their patients write me saying that they would like me to do a story on them. Elizabeth also wrote a post about four doctors (none of whom practiced any form of alternative medicine) killed in accidents (Christopher Spradley, Robert Grossman, Anthony Keene and Dick Versendaal) that come with this caveat: this caveat I dont think these four in accidents were probably foul play. I just included them as a few asked me to. These doctors werent holistic (that I know of- I havent researched) I guess the lesson is that wearing a helmet, even when simply riding a bicycle, doesnt necessarily protect you. It also shows how quickly our lives can be taken away from us or those around us so treasure every moment with your loved ones. Another six posts about individual doctors deaths come with disclaimers or updates admitting that their deaths were not mysterious. Despite that admission, Elizabeth continues to include their faces on her dead doctor collage. These doctors, only three of whom practiced alternative medicine, are Jamie Zimmerman, Nabil El Sanadi, Lorraine Hurley, Kenneth Rich, and Alan Clarke. Jamie Zimmerman Nabil El Sanadi Lorraine Hurley Kenneth Rich Alan Clarke Seven of the Remaining 47 Cases Can Also Be Excluded as Accidents We found another seven cases that are clear and incontrovertible accidents -- though Elizabeth has not admitted as much. This includes John Louis Lombardozzi, a chiropractor killed in a motorcycle accident  (listed as suspicious because he was an experienced rider); Wade Shipman, an osteopath who died in a bike accident; John A. Harsch, a holistic doctor killed in a car accident; Thomas Bruff, an occupational medicine doctor who died in a plane crash; Mark Buller, a bioterrorism expert who died after being struck by a car; and surgeon Anita Kurmann, who was killed in a bike accident. Finally, Linnea Veinotte, a researcher who had a teaching post at St. Georges University in Grenada, was killed in a hit-and-run for which the perpetrator later turned himself in. motorcycle accident  because osteopath plane crash struck by a car killed in a bike accident researcher turned himself in Fourteen of the Remaining 40 Cases Are Murders Unrelated to a Medical Conspiracy Fourteen of the doctors in Elizabeths series were murdered. Although each case is disturbing, in all but one the likely perpetrator has been identified -- and in the remaining case, the victim was a retiree who clearly posed no threat to the medical establishment. One of the cases Elizabeth most often refers to in hers series is that of Teresa Sievers. Dr. Sievers was involved in holistic medicine and her murder was complex and mysterious enough to be featured on the CBS program 48 hours. However, the investigation ultimately ended in the arrest of her husband on the suspicion that he paid a man to kill her for a life insurance payout. The case is still working its way through the courts. Teresa Sievers featured Another notable case involved the brutal and premeditated killing of a Southern California doctor who combined conventional and holistic medicine, Weidong "Henry" Han. Dr. Han, along with his wife and five year old daughter, were killed by a former business partner for financial gain, as reported by the Associated Press: Weidong "Henry" Han reported A California man was charged Tuesday with murder in the slaughter of the family of a Chinese herbalist, including his 5-year-old daughter, in a crime authorities say might have been caused by a business dispute. Pierre Haobsh, 26, of Oceanside was charged with murder with special circumstances that he used a handgun, killed for financial gain and committed multiple killings. Santa Barbara County prosecutors have not decided whether to seek the death penalty. [...] A loaded gun and property belonging to one of the victims was found inside the car where Haobsh was arrested, Sheriff Bob Brown said last week. As horrific as this event was, the likely perpetrator in this case was known to the victim, making it unlikely to be part of a larger conspiracy. The same can be said about these deaths included in the Health Nut News series: murdered who believed her husband neighbor former employee ex-employee murder-suicide over complaints Three more doctors were murdered in three random acts of violence that, despite involving assailants unknown to the victims, involved either a perpetrator who is now in custody, or a victim not plausibly related to any medical or regulatory conspiracy: turned himself robbery gone wrong unknown assailant Ten of the Remaining 26 Cases Involve People With No Tie to Holistic Medicine  In many instances, Elizabeth includes individuals in her series who have no documentable tie to holistic medicine. Among the most tenuous connections to holistic medicine is the case of Cheryl Deboar, who was employed in a non-research role at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, and had a degree in chemistry. employed Also notable is the inclusion of Jeffrey Whiteside, a pulmonary/critical care doctor who, despite a complex and potentially mismanaged investigation that ultimately concluded that his death was a suicide, did not practice or have ties to any form of alternative medicine. Elizabeth uses the problems in the investigation to generate suspicion but fails to make any link to a larger narrative about the threat she thinks alternative medical practitioners are facing. potentially mismanaged a suicide generate suspicion Other tenuous connections included in this category: connection clinical cancer researcher connection chief of anesthesiology no proffered tie connection junior doctor strike excessive sweating integrative medicine two weeks connects clear suicide 11 of the Remaining 16 Cases Cannot Plausibly Be Considered Suspicious  In ten of the remaining cases, the cause of death is known and generally accepted. This includes the death of Alfredo "Dr. Sebi" Bowman, an alternative health guru and traditional healer who died in an Honduran jail where he was being held on money laundering charges. Bowman was an important figure in the alternative health world, but conditions in Honduran prisons are notoriously harsh, crowded, and unsanitary, making it unsurprising that an 82 year-old with pneumonia did not survive his detention there. died in an Honduran jail notoriously Similarly, 56 year-old anesthesiologist and libertarian presidential candidate Mark Feldman, who was anti-vaccine, died in a motel where he was found by an unidentified woman. Authorities determined that his death was caused by a heart attack. heart attack In other cases, Elizabeth barely makes an attempt to draw the deaths of these individuals into a larger narrative, as with chiropractor Armon Burt  the victim of a heart attack whose inclusion in the series stems from Elizabeths barely-articulated hunches that minor details surrounding his death are strange: details Dr. Armon Bert, who was reported missing by his family, was found in his car in the parking lot of a Kirkwood Lowes store (St Louis suburb), the apparent victim of a heart attack (how do they clock his death at exactly 10:04 AM if they found him in the car?). The remaining cases here are those in which Elizabeth challenges the reader to prove a negative  that there is not evidence that it wasnt suspicious  without providing any tangible evidence that there is cause to doubt the official cause of death: obituary clearly states died of a heart attack learned about found dead took his life Finally, Rod Floyd, a professor at Palmer College of Chiropractic, whose suicide Elizabeth casts doubt on by saying that she heard things but is unable to elaborate on them as even [she] doesnt know all the details. There is no verifiable evidence of foul play in his death. unable Five Cases Involving Holistic Doctors Remain After eliminating the above 55 doctors from the official unintended series, we are left with only five cases involving individuals who practiced some form of alternative medicine and whose death could arguably (though this is a stretch) look suspicious. This includes the death of Jeffrey Bradstreet (discussed earlier), the incident that spawned this whole series in the first place. Elizabeth includes another indisputably prominent figure in the alternative medicine scene, Mitchell Gaynor, in her series. As with Bradstreet, Gaynors death was ruled a suicide, which Elizabeth questions for spurious reasons. She argues that Gaynor, who supplemented his traditional treatment with natural remedies, wouldnt have committed suicide because he had recently beat the flu and survived a car accident: argues Im confused because his close friend and patient (also a doctor) told me that they were told he had walked away from a car accident, but then days later he was found in the woods at his country home in Upstate New York. Im also confused because posts on his personal Facebook page (which you might only be able to see if you are friends with him or have mutual friends) had colleagues saying that they were so sorry he missed the conference he was supposed to attend last weekend because allegedly he said he had the intestinal flu. So, lets say the information we were given was true. Lets say he survived a car accident (we dont know the details yet) and walked away from it, then he gets the intestinal flu (apparently survives that too) and then kills himself (allegedly in the woods at his country home, according to a patient and friend)? We are unsure what these details have to do with his state of mind, but it should be noted that surviving both the flu and a car accident are not necessarily indicators of mental health. The other notable figure is Nick Gonzalez, an oncologist who practiced controversial and unproven alternative cancer treatments. Gonzalez died at age 67 of cardiac-related issues. His death sparked its own conspiracy theories and memes, as he once joked that pharmaceutical companies might target him for his work, as Vitality Magazine reported: reported The keynote speaker at this years Whole Life Expo is Dr. Nicholas Gonzalez of New York, one of a small number of doctors whose success in treating cancer exceeds that of mainstream oncology by a wide margin. His work thereby puts the lie to pharmaceutical propaganda that fuels a cancer industry bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars while fooling millions of desperate and bewildered patients. Ive been told drug companies know about my work but hope I get hit by a bus, Dr. Gonzalez observes wryly. The two remaining cases included here involve people who had connections to holistic medicine, but were far from national figures in the movement and could barely be considered primary targets for a hit job: found in his car disputed his patients These five cases, and perhaps even some suicides mentioned above, form a kind of Rorschach Test  if you are looking for evidence of a plot against alternative medical practitioners, you will likely be drawn to them. However, recognizing that nearly every story included in Elizabeths unintended series is demonstrably unrelated to each other means that any conspiracy made must be crafted from the deaths of three prominent doctors -- plus two doctors who, despite having experience with alternative medicine, were not national figures or a plausible threat to any medical establishment. A Collection of Unrelated Tragedies  As we reported in the earliest debunking of this conspiracy theory, between 6,500 and 8,200 doctors can be expected to die each year in the United States alone. These five deaths over the span of a year and a half, from a statistical standpoint, are not abnormal. Further, outside of vaguely defined philosophical beliefs, there is absolutely no connection between any of them. reported In fact, amongst the whole series, the only true defining similarity between all the cases described on Health Nut News is that Elizabeth promises to keep people updated on their developments if they join her email list. Because the claim of over 60 dead doctors cannot be demonstrated even by Elizabeth herself, and because nearly all of the cases she uses can be easily excluded from a larger conspiracy, we rate the claim as false. There is no conspiracy afoot. Instead, there are simply 61 individual tragedies that have been inelegantly strung together by an alternative health website whose not-so-subtle innuendo has subsequently echoed through the darkest and most paranoid corners of the internet -- and which has begun to leak into mainstream media outlets as well. Carpender, Heather.  "Body Located in Rocky Broad River in Chimney Rock Identified."
  WHNS-TV [Greenville, SC]..  23 Jun 2015. Cave, Rachel.  "Grenada Man Accused in Death of Linnea Veinotte May Not Go to Trial Until 2017."
  CBC News.  4 August 2016. Czebiniak, Madasyn.  "Doctor, 64, Found Dead in Her Home in Sharon."
  Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  13 August 2015. Debbie, Samantha.  "Doctors Murdered After Discovering Cancer Enzymes in Vaccines."
  Natural News.  19 September 2016. Gills, Wendy, and Sarah-Joyce Battersy.  "Murder Charge Upgraded to First-Degree in Ryerson Prof Stabbing."
  The Star.  7 January 2016. Grant, Megan.  "Jin Qing Huang Found Fit to Stand Trial on Murder Charge in Death of Tiejun Huang."
  CBC News.  26 August 2016. Helling, Steve.  "Georgia Woman on Vacation in Grenada Killed on Beach by Sword-Wielding Man."
  People.  26 January 2016. Smith, Jim.  "Man Wanted in Vicious Plymouth Murder of Quincy College Professor."
  WBZ-TV [Boston].  7 May 2015. Sparks, John.  "Arrest Made in Death of Dr. Ronald Schwartz of Jupiter."
  WPTV [Palm Beach, FL].  5 January 2016. Parker, Micaela.  "Hearing Reveals Details in Case of Woman Charged with Killing Boss."
  [Utica] Observer-Dispatch.  28 September 2016. Miller, Michael, E.  "The Mysterious Death of a Doctor Who Peddled Autism Cures to Thousands."
  The Washington Post.  26 July 2015. Moriarty, Erin.  "Eleven Hundred Miles to Murder."
  CBS News.  18 February 2017. Mott, Kristen.  "Beachwood Doctor Died from Natural Causes."
  Cleveland Jewish News.  19 August 2016. Neely, Chanda.  "Cleveland Clinic Doc Who Sought Libertarian Party Presidential Bid Found Dead in Brook Park Motel."
  Cleveland.com.  23 June 2016. Pologod.  "Dr. Sebi Dies in Police Custody in Honduras."
  The Source.  8 August 2016. Salinger, Tobias.  "Georgia Boxer 'Terrible Thomas' Charged in Death of His Wife Weeks After Allegedly Assaulting Her: Reports."
  [New York] Daily News.  21 July 2015 Sarich, Christina.  "Another Alternative Health Doctor Killed, Found in Makeshift Grave."
  InfoWars.  28 December 2015. Sott, Geraldine.  "Doctor Who Was Found Dead in Old Buckenham Had Taken Drugs Which Could Be in Levels Considered Lethal."
  Eastern Daily Press.  9 February 2017. Walsh, Paul.  "Autopsy: Alcohol a Factor in Fatal Fall of HCMC Doctor Found Along I-94."
  [Minneapolis] Star Tribune.  7 January 2016. Texas Chiropractic Association.  "Longview Chiropractor Dies in Wreck; Children Injured."
  1 June 2014 Erie Times-News.  "Dr. John Louis Lombardozzi."
  1 June 2016 KOTV [Tulsa].  "Prominent Tulsa Physician Kills Himself."
  30 October 2015 KENS-TV [San Antonio].  "DPS: Body Found in Kendall Co. Identified as Missing Boerne Doctor."
  6 April 2016. KABC-TV.  "Is Dr. Sievers' Homicide Tied to Other Doctors' Deaths?"
  6 July 2015. stopthethyroidmadness.com.  "Lyme Sucks!! In Loving Memory of Paige Adams, FNP, B-C."
  2 February 2016. The News and Observer.  "Life Stories: Raleighs Baron Holt Known as a Faithful Healer."
  12 July 2016 BBC News.  "Junior Doctors' Row: The Dispute Explained"
  6 April 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Famous Autism Researcher and Doctor, Jeff Bradstreet, MD, Died of Alleged Self Inflicted Gunshot Wound to Chest and Found in a River."
  Health Nut News.  23 June 2015 Elizabeth, Erin.  "3rd Alternative, Prominent Doctor From Florida Found Dead in 2 Weeks."
  Health Nut News.  1 July 2015 Elizabeth, Erin.  "2 More Doctors Go Missing, After 3 Found Dead in 2 Weeks"
  Health Nut News.  5 July 2015 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Breaking: 4th Doctor (DO) Found Dead, Gunshot Wound to Head."
  Health Nut News.  14 July 2015. Elizabeth, Erin.  "5th Holistic Doctor (age 33) Died in Florida Making 5 Dead and 5 More Missing."
  Health Nut News.  14 July 2015. Elizabeth, Erin.  "Holistic and Fit Dentist, 41, Found Dead of Massive Heart Attack While Jogging."
  Health Nut News.  21 July 2015. Elizabeth, Erin.  "5 Chiropractors Die in Accidents in Recent Months, 3 Single Car."
  Health Nut News.  1 August 2015. Elizabeth, Erin.  "Fit Vegan Cardiologist Dies in Freak Accident, Florida MD Dies While Jogging Saturday & More,"
  Health Nut News.  3 August 2015. Elizabeth, Erin.  "10th Doctor (Osteopath) Found Slain in Her Home."
  Health Nut News.  14 August Elizabeth, Erin.  "Holistic MD Nick Gonzalez, Who Died Suddenly, Said Hed Heard Big Pharma Hoped Hed Get Hit by a Bus."
  Health Nut News.  21 August 2015 Elizabeth, Erin.  "NY Times Announces 11th Holistic Doctors Death as Suicide?"
  Health Nut News.  18 September 2015. Elizabeth, Erin.  "Holistic New York MD Hit & Killed by Intoxicated Driver in Long Island"
  Health Nut News.  11 October 2015 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Twelfth Holistic Doctor Found Dead, Alleged Suicide"
  Health Nut News.  11 October 2015 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Thirteenth Holistic Doctor (MD, PhD) Dies  Allegedly Jumped from 20th floor."
  Health Nut News.  30 October 2015 Elizabeth, Erin.  "2 Doctors Walking Home, Both Found Dead, One Stabbed to Death in "Safe Neighborhood."
  Health Nut News.  19 December 2015 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Canadian Doctor Killed, Body Found in Makeshift Grave"
  Health Nut News.  23 December 2015 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Florida Doctor & Broward Health Chief & President, Found Dead from Alleged Suicide"
  Health Nut News.  24 January 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Holistic MD & Anesthetist Attacked on Beach by Man w/Sword."
  Health Nut News.  26 January 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Local Florida Holistic Doctor (& Our Friend) Found Dead, He Was Healthy & Hearty.
  Health Nut News.  26 January 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Dr Bradstreets Colleague (& My Friend/Neighbor) Found Dead in Florida."
  Health Nut News.  1 February 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Top Leading Cancer Scientist Found Dead in Tree in Fetish Body Suit."
  Health Nut News.  14 February 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Researcher at Famous Cancer Center Found in Woods Ruled Suicide, But No One Buying It."
  Health Nut News.  14 February 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "NBC: Marshall Investigator Has 100% Confirmation Doctors Death Was a Set-Up."
  Health Nut News.  27 February 2016. Elizabeth, Erin.  "34 Year Old Doctor/Cancer Researcher Found Dead in Field."
  Health Nut News.  19 March 2016. Elizabeth, Erin.  "ABC: Holistic Doctor & Family Killed in Horrific Triple Murder at Santa Barbara Estate."
  Health Nut News.  25 March 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Another Holistic Doctor Killed"
  Health Nut News.  7 April 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Another Doctor, 25 y/o, Mysteriously Found Dead in Body of Water  No Witnesses."
  Health Nut News.  2 May 2016. Elizabeth, Erin.  "Alternative & Holistic MD, John Hicks, Has Died"
  Health Nut News.  3 May 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Holistic Doctor/Professor Found Stabbed to Death in Her Home."
  Health Nut News.  11 May 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Holistic Doctor Found Dead After Missing for Weeks"
  Health Nut News.  13 May 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  Yet Another Doctor Found Dead in Plane Crash"
  Health Nut News.  18 May 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Prominent NY Holistic Doctor Found Dead of Alleged Suicide"
  Health Nut News.  11 June 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "NBC: NY Holistic Doctor Thought to Have Died Naturally Was Poisoned"
  Health Nut News.  14 February 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Murder Suicide: Gunman Kills Holistic Doctor, Then Himself"
  Health Nut News.  15 June 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Another Holistic Doctor (MD) Murdered at His Clinic, 2 Doctors in 2 Days"
  Health Nut News.  17 June 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "32 y/o Holistic Doctor Dies of Apparent Heart Attack at Her Home"
  Health Nut News.  23 June 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Holistic Doctor Found Dead in Parking Lot Before Seminar"
  Health Nut News.  5 July 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Breaking: Renowned Holistic Doctor Found Stabbed to Death in Her Palo Alto Home."
  Health Nut News.  17 July 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "MD Found Murdered Inside Florida Home Today."
  Health Nut News.  21 July 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Holistic Doctor and Inventor Killed in Accident"
  Health Nut News.  25 July 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "The Truth of Holistic Celebrity Dr Sebis Death."
  Health Nut News.  6 August 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Holistic MD Killed in What Appears to Be a Tragic Accident (RIP)"
  Health Nut News.  5 October 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Holistic Doctor Death Series: Over 60 Dead in Just Over a Year"
  Health Nut News.  12 March 2016. Elizabeth, Erin.  "Breaking: Outspoken Holistic Doctor Allegedly Commits Suicide on Mothers Day"
  Health Nut News.  13 May 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Breaking: Another Holistic Florida MD Found Dead."
  Health Nut News.  24 November 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "ABC: Holistic Doctor Found Dead in His Natural Health Clinic, Police Investigate as Homicide."
  Health Nut News.  4 March 2017 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Another Holistic Doctor Shot in His Clinic, Dies Hours Later."
  Health Nut News.  17 March 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Famous MD Jumps Off George Washington Bridge to His Death in NYC."
  Health Nut News.  13 February 2016 Elizabeth, Erin.  "Doctor Killed on Riverview Drive Was Slu Professor, Expert on Bioterrorism."
  Health Nut News.  24 February 2016 YourCaring.  "Support for Kristina and Lucas in Loving Memory of Jyrki." Coral Springs Funeral Home.  "Obituary for Laura Elizabeth Skellchock." Christensen, Doreen.  "Never Let Them See You Sweat: 4 Ways to Plug Up That Damp Domain Under Arms."
  Sun Sentinel.  2 July 2012 Draaisma, Muriel.  "Chiropractor Slain in Burlington Had 'Biggest Smile in the Room."
  CBC News.  25 March 2015 Associated Press.  "Widower Accused of Killing Naturopathic Doctor After Wifes Cancer Death."
  10 March 2017 Annese, John.  "ABC News Doctor's Ex-husband Dies in Jump from George Washington Bridge."
  [New York] Daily News.  13 February 2017 Saint Louis University.  "Mark Buller, Ph.D.: 1949-2017."
  February 2017 Correction [26 March 2018]: An earlier version of this story incorrectly referred to Jessica Colker as Jessica Corker. On Nov. 21, 2019, a rumor started to circulate on social media that the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) had removed Fox News from "Armed Forces Radio" over the network's coverage of Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman's testimony during the House Intelligence Committee's impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump: circulate   No, Fox News has not been removed from "Armed Forces Radio," a misnomer of the American Forces Network Radio (AFN). Navy Capt. Bill Speaks, a Pentagon spokesperson, confirmed to the Associated Press that this rumor was false: Associated Press "We have not cancelled Fox News from American Forces Network programming, either on our radio or TV services." A spokesperson for American Forces Network Radio told us via email: American Forces Network (AFN) Radio has and continues to air FOX radio newscasts and features on many of our radio services. AFN Radio rotates top of the hour radio newscasts between FOX, Associated Press, ABC, CBS and Westwood One radio. While Fox News was not removed from America Forces Network Radio, the network truly was criticized for how it covered Vindman's testimony. Vindman's lawyer sent a letter to Fox News asking it to retract an Oct. 28 segment that aired on Laura Ingraham's prime-time show, "The Ingraham Angle." On the show, guest John Yoo, a former deputy assistant U.S. attorney general, appeared to suggest that Vindman was guilty of espionage. letter Newsweek reported: reported A law firm representing Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman sent Fox News a warning letter on Wednesday asking for the retraction and correction of a segment on Laura Ingraham's show which suggested the colonel might be guilty of espionage. "We are compelled to write because of a deeply flawed and erroneous Fox News segment that first aired on October 28, 2019, the gist of which has since been republished countless times, including by the President of the United States to his 66.9 million Twitter followers." The segment on The Ingraham Angle featured a panel with lawyer John Yoo, a former Deputy Assistant U.S. Attorney General and current U.C. Berkeley law professor, and legal scholar, Alan Dershowitz. In an exchange with Yoo, Ingraham remarked on something she read about about the colonel, the New York Times reports. "Here we have a U.S. national security official who is advising Ukraine, while working inside the White House, apparently against the president's interest, and usually, they spoke in English," said Ingraham. "Isn't that kind of an interesting angle on this story?" "I find that astounding and, you know, some people might call that espionage," responded Yoo. Fox News released a statement saying that "Yoo was responsible for his own sentiments": As a guest on FOX News, John Yoo was responsible for his own sentiments and he has subsequently done interviews to clarify what he meant.  Yoo also wrote an op-ed for USA Today on Nov. 1, 2019, in which he claimed that he was talking about Ukraine, not Vindman specifically, and that he has "no reason to question Vindmans patriotism or loyalty to the United States." USA Today Vindman's lawyers also addressed Yoo's Op-Ed in their complaint, writing: writing "On November 1, 2019, Mr. Yoo published an op-ed in USA Today regarding his appearance on Fox News several days earlier. In the Yoo op-ed, Mr. Yoo stated, contrary to fact, that "I didn't call Alexander Vindman a spy." But of course, he did - Mr. Yoo's statement on Fox News expressly accused LTC Vindman of "espionage" and was universally understood to have done so. it is why Mr. Yoo wrote an op-ed seeking to rewrite recorded fact; it is why he begins his op-ed, "I really stepped in it this week." What Mr. Yoo "stepped in" was a lie. Darcy, Oliver.  "Lawyer for Impeachment Witness Lt. Col Vindman Demands Fox News Retract 'False and Defamatory' Segment."
  CNN.  21 November 2019. Associated Press.  "Fox News Was Not Removed From Armed Forces Radio Over Vindman Testimony."
   21 November 2019. Yoo, John.  "John Yoo: No, I Didn't Call Alexander Vindman a Spy. But Ukraine Did Engage in Espionage."
  USA Today.  1 November 2019. During the Republican presidential debate in North Charleston, S.C., Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, took aim at the nations economic record under President Barack Obama. The millionaires and billionaires are doing great under Obama, Cruz said. But we have the lowest percentage of Americans working today of any year since 1977. Median wages have stagnated. And the Obama-Clinton economy has left behind the working men and women of this country. We decided to fact-check Cruzs statement that we have the lowest percentage of Americans working today since 1977. Cruz is on to something. One key employment statistic known as the civilian labor force participation rate is at its lowest level since the 1970s. This statistic takes the number of Americans in the labor force -- basically, those who are either employed or who are seeking employment and divides it by the total civilian population. Heres a chart going back to the mid 1970s. When the civilian labor force participation rate is low, its a concern, because it means there are fewer working Americans to support non-working Americans. But well offer two asterisks for Cruzs statement. First, as wevenoted before, a notable factor in the decline of the labor-force participation rate is the aging of the Baby Boom generation. As more adults begin moving into retirement age, the percentage of Americans who work is bound to decline. When we last looked at this question in 2013, Gary Burtless, a Brookings Institution economist, told us he had estimated that the labor-force participation rate would have fallen in recent years on the basis of aging alone. That said, Cruz has a point that the recession exacerbated that decline. In a weak job market, some people who might otherwise want a job may return to school, become full-time parents or retire early. Second, theres another way to read Cruzs words. He said the lowest percentage of Americans working since 1977, which could also refer to a different statistic, the employment-population ratio. This statistic takes the number of people who are employed and divides it by the civilian population age 16 and above. The difference in this case is that using the employment-population ratio, Cruzs statement is incorrect. Unlike the labor-force participation rate, the employment-population ratio has actually been improving in recent years, although its below its pre-recession highs. Heres a chart showing this statistic over the same time frame:  If you exclude the Great Recession, the employment-population ratio was last at its current rate in 1984, not 1977. So by that measurement, hes close. Our ruling Cruz said, We have the lowest percentage of Americans working today of any year since 1977. Hes put his finger on a trend that worries economists of all stripes, but his wording was sloppy. In addition, its worth remembering that this particular trend is being driven at least to a degree by demographic trends beyond the control of any president. We rate the claim Mostly True. The Troubled Assets Relief Program, or TARP, was envisioned as a giant pot of money the federal government could use to buy toxic assets, the mortgage-backed investments that triggered the nation's financial crisis. The idea was to buy the bad assets so banks would be in better shape to do more lending. That was the original vision of Henry Paulson, the Bush administration's treasury secretary and one of the architects of the plan. He won quick approval from Congress in early October 2008. But Paulson changed his strategy. Instead of using the early TARP money to buy the toxic assets, he decided to use it to invest in banks. That, Paulson said, would get them to resume lending. Since then, critics have questioned whether the TARP money has been wisely spent. They have criticized TARP investments in banks that did not appear to be in serious trouble, and said it was unwise to spend $25 billion on the auto industry. In his column on March 24, 2009, conservative writer George Will took aim at a variety of recent acts by Congress and the Obama administration. He described members of Congress as braying yahoos and said the Obama administration had invited private sector investors to become business partners with the capricious and increasingly anticonstitutional government. This latest plan to unfreeze the financial system came almost half a year after Congress shoveled $700 billion into the Troubled Assets Relief Program, $325 billion of which has been spent without purchasing any toxic assets. We had a vague recollection that TARP spending had been broadened at some point, but we wondered if Will was correct that such a large amount had been spent without buying the assets that were the original focus of the program. (Indeed, the program was named after them, creating a metaphorical acronym that suggested it was a temporary protection from storms.) A quick history: In early October, with fears that the economy was on the brink of collapse, Congress approved the $700 billion Paulson wanted, and President George W. Bush signed the measure into law. As we noted above, the early vision was to buy toxic assets. But just 10 days later, Paulson and the Bush administration changed the game plan. Instead of buying toxic assets, they said they would buy stock in American banks to put them on sound footing so they could resume lending. Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S. economy, Paulson said on Oct. 14. We regret having to take these actions. Today's actions are not what we ever wanted to do  but today's actions are what we must do to restore confidence to our financial system. Criticism grew. Some said Paulson had gotten too much leeway to spend the money. Congress began harrumphing and holding hearings, and oversight groups known as SIGTARP (the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program) and COP (the Congressional Oversight Panel) began to scrutinize the spending. (A quick aside: The financial crisis has spawned some of coolest acronyms this side of the Pentagon, making it possible for Treasury officials to utter sentences like, COP and SIGTARP have examined the TARP but haven't yet focused on the P-PIP.) The $325 billion cited by Will comes from the March 11 testimony by Neel Kashkari, the interim assistant secretary for financial stability who directs the TARP, before the Domestic Policy Subcommittee of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Asked about the status of the program and how much more would be needed, Kashkari said, We've deployed about 325 billion cash dollars out the door. And at that point, none of the money had been spent on buying toxic assets, according to the Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan congressional research group, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an independent group tracking spending on TARP and other stimulus programs on its siteStimulus Watch. We should note that since that testimony, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has unveiled his proposal for buying the toxic assets, which would be partly paid for by a portion of the TARP money. But that wasn't the case when Will's column was published, so we find his claim to be True. Snopes is still fighting an infodemic of rumors and misinformation surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, and you can help. Find out what we've learned and how to inoculate yourself against COVID-19 misinformation. Read the latest fact checks about the vaccines. Submit any questionable rumors and advice you encounter. Become a Founding Member to help us hire more fact-checkers. And, please, follow the CDC or WHO for guidance on protecting your community from the disease.  fighting Find out Read Submit Become a Founding Member CDC WHO As the COVID-19 coronavirus disease pandemic of March 2020 threatened to shut down businesses across America for an extended period of time, the U.S. government faced the difficult task of deciding which industries should be provided economic assistance to keep them afloat for the duration. Public sentiment in some quarters was strongly against government bailouts for businesses such as airlines and cruise companies, on the grounds that over the last several years many of the major operators had spent billions of dollars in profits buying up their own stock rather than paying down their debts. In USA Today, John M. Griffin and James M. Griffin wrote: strongly against Start with the airlines. Rather than using their profits from the past five years to pay off debts and save for a rainy day, the big four  American, United, Delta and Southwest  instead grew their combined liabilities to $166 billion, all while spending $39 billion on share repurchases. That number, which is only from the big four, is almost 80% of what theyre asking for now from U.S. taxpayers. Similarly, the three largest Cruise companies -- Carnival, Norwegian, and Royal Caribbean -- have liabilities of $47.5 billion and engaged in share repurchases of $8 billion. Had these companies paid down liabilities instead of using stock repurchases to bid up their stock prices, they would have been far better prepared to weather this emergency. Of course, higher share prices made their stock options more valuable. This allowed top airlines executives to pay themselves $666 million in compensation over the five-year period. The top cruise executives managed to haul in $448 million. Now, taxpayers are unwillingly being called upon to bail out their profligate behavior. A widely circulated meme on social media offered another reason why cruise lines were supposedly unworthy of government bailouts -- because although they might be headquartered in the U.S., their ships were foreign-flagged in order to put them out of reach of U.S. law:  That nearly every major cruise line registers their ships somewhere outside the U.S. is hardly a disputable point. As a 2011 news report noted, only a single major cruise ship at the time was U.S.-flagged: news report [O]nly one major cruise ship -- NCL America's Pride of America -- is registered in the United States, according to data from CyberCruises.com. Most of the big boats fly Bahamian flags, but other popular registries include Panama, Bermuda, Italy, Malta and the Netherlands. In fact, according to Cruise Lines International Association, 90% of commercial vessels calling on U.S. ports fly foreign flags. The three cruise lines called out by name in the meme -- Disney, Celebrity, and Carnival -- do indeed engage in this practice. It's not difficult to verify that Disney cruise ships are registered in the Bahamas, Celebrity ships in Malta, and Carnival ships in Panama. Of course, the cruise industry and their critics offer differing reasons for why cruise ships are flagged in countries other than the U.S., with the former asserting that: Bahamas Malta Panama reasons CLIA [Cruise Lines International Association] maintains there are reasons for such policies: "There are many factors that determine where a cruise ship -- or for that matter, any maritime vessel -- is flagged. Those determinations are made by individual cruise lines and other ship operators based on varying factors including the capabilities of the flag to deliver the services needed; representation and reputation of the flag in the international shipping community; the performance of the flag state, which dictates how a ship is prioritized by port states; the pool of seafarers able to meet the needs of the flag; and the flag's fees/charges and taxes," the association said by e-mail. This can be viewed as a robust free-market debate. Some maintain burdensome U.S. regulations have forced cruise operators to plant their flags elsewhere, while others say these corporations are seeking to attract American dollars while skirting American safety and consumer protection laws. On the other hand, an academic paper by Caitlin E. Burke of the University of Florida about "Legal Issues Relevant to Cruise Ships" made no bones of observing that reflagging of ships had long been used as a means of avoiding U.S. federal taxes, labor and safety laws, environmental laws, lawsuits, criminal investigations, and other regulations: paper Aside from the majority revenue generated by U.S. passengers, cruise lines are independent of the U.S. economy. Even though nearly 75 percent of passengers are U.S. citizens, cruise line corporations and their ships are not traditionally American-owned or registered ... (Tomlinson, 2007) Cruise line companies are not concerned about increasing minimum wage, rising insurance premiums, or higher corporate taxes. Cruise lines escape federal taxes and labor laws by registering their corporations and vessels in foreign countries [such as] Panama, Liberia, and the Bahamas. In fact, employees of cruise lines are often mistreated due to lackadaisical labor laws. Worst of all, employees will find little to no recourse pursuing litigation. Likewise, a U.S. citizen passenger faces the same predicament. A vessels country of registration is commonly referred to as the "flag of convenience" (FOC). Flagging a ship under a foreign flag for the convenience of the cruise line is nothing new, nor is it rare. The majority of cruise ships today are registered to Panama, Liberia, or the Bahamas. It is important to pay close attention as many vessels within the same fleet are often registered to different countries. Carnival Corporation, for example, has flagged their cruise vessel Celebration under Panama and Destiny under the Bahamas. Cruise lines often avoid drawing attention to the FOC of by using the term "headquartered in Miami, Florida." It is important to understand that while the majority of these cruise lines have their headquarters in Miami, they are not registered in the U.S. Thus, U.S. laws do not apply and passengers are at the mercy of maritime law. That the practice of ship-reflagging is common and regular is undeniable. Whether cruise lines headquartered in the U.S. but operating ships registered in foreign countries "deserve" government bailouts in a time of pandemic is a subjective issue with no definitive answer, but certainly some critics have argued that they do not: critics Even in a crisis, companies with prudent balance sheets will survive and in time, thrive. Despite what politicians might tell you, the airplanes and ships of imprudent companies are physical property that will not suddenly disappear. They will fly or sail again under the same or different name, but hopefully with cheaper prices, better service and different executives. Like a college student sleeping off a hangover, a crisis is a time to sober up by removing debt from the system. Its not time for another drink. McGee, Bill.  "What Every Cruiser Should Know Before They Book."
  USA Today.  26 April 2011. McGee, Bill.  "Why Are Cruise Ships Registered in Foreign Countries?"
  USA Today.  11 December 2012. van Doorn, Philip.  "Airlines and Boeing Want a Bailout  But Look How Much Theyve Spent on Stock Buybacks."
  MarketWatch.  22 March 2020. Griffin, John M. and James M. Griffin.  "Coronavirus Bailout for Airlines and Cruise lines Is Socialism for the Undeserving Rich."
  USA Today.  20 March 2020. Burke, Caitlin E.  "A Qualitative Study of Victimization and Legal Issues Relevant to Cruise Ships."
  Accessed 23 March 2020. Claim:  A debtor can discharge his obligations by sending his creditor a check made out for a fraction of the amount owed with the words 'Paid in full' written on it.  Example:  [Los Angeles Times, 2002]  A friend of a friend has racked up credit card debt and student loans totaling $100,000. Not securely employed, she has been planning on continuing her dinners out, lavish shopping trips, a car purchase and vacations, figuring it all will get wiped out soon enough. She says she is working with a lawyer who advised her to write $10 checks to all her creditors, with a note saying "paid in full" on the check. Origins:  "Get rich quick" (or, in this case, "get poor more slowly") schemes never seem to lose their appeal, even though common sense should warn that if getting rich quickly were truly so easy, everyone would be  wealthy. Obviously, if getting out of a debt were as simple a matter as executing the method described above, no one would ever lend money or extend credit.  Nonetheless, these schemes maintain their hold on the public because people are willing to entertain the fiction that they're a form of "secret knowledge"  that such loopholes do exist because only a select few are smart enough to know about and take advantage of them. It's not uncommon for creditors to agree to settle debts for less than the full amount due.  After all, some payment is better than none, and if debtors can be encouraged to pay at least a portion of their debts back through promises that they will relieved of any further financial obligations towards their creditors, then both sides come out ahead.  Better to accept a fraction of what you're owed than to risk your debtor's declaring bankruptcy or choosing to pay off other debts instead, leaving you with nothing. For such arrangements to be valid, however, both sides must agree to them.  A debtor cannot unilaterally declare a partial payment to be "payment in full" simply by attaching a note with those words to his check or writing them in the memo field and assuming that if the creditor fails to notice the notation then the entire debt has been discharged: This "paid-in-full" nonsense has achieved the status of urban legend, says J. Scott Bovitz, a Los Angeles bankruptcy lawyer. A creditor sometimes will reduce a claim for a disputed payment, but this kind of settlement usually won't happen if the debtor acts in bad faith, Bovitz says. The act of writing "paid in full" on a $10 check pretty much defines the term "bad faith." Section 3-311 of the Uniform Commercial Code does state that a debt can be discharged with a check designated as payment in full "if the person against whom the claim is asserted proves that the instrument or an accompanying written communication contained a conspicuous statement to the effect that the instrument was tendered as full satisfaction of the claim."  However, it's up to the claimant to prove "that within a reasonable time before collection of the instrument was initiated, the claimant, or an agent of the claimant having direct responsibility with respect to the disputed obligation, knew that the instrument was tendered in full satisfaction of the claim."  So if you receive a check marked "paid in full" made out for less than the amount you have agreed upon, you'd best not cross out the words "paid in full" or write "disputed" on it and cash it anyway, as you risk having the entire debt discharged.  However, this condition does not apply to "transactions conducted or performed, in whole or in part, by electronic means or electronic records, in which the acts or records of one or both parties are not reviewed by an individual in the ordinary course [of business]," which means that this scheme will not work at all for most bill or credit card payments, as those payments are typically handled by automated systems and not humans. Uniform Commercial Code The best method for paying off debts with small payments remains not to run up large debts in the first place. Last updated:  18 April 2011 The Trump administration unveiled a one-page list of tax reform principles inspired by the theory that tax cuts can unleash enough economic growth to cover lost revenue. President George H.W. Bush famously derided this as voodoo economics, and present-day critics are no less dismissive of what they see as magical thinking by the White House. The Trump administration will say, 'Well, hey, tax cuts are going to create growth, growth is going to create revenue, that's going to offset all this deficit,' Rana Foroohar, a CNN economic analyst and Financial Times columnist, told CNN April 26. Well, there's no real evidence in the last 20 years that that has happened. We decided to investigate this claim. First, the big changes under the White House proposal: the business tax rate drops from 35 to 15 percent for both big and small corporations alike, personal income tax brackets go from seven brackets to three (10, 25, and 35 percent), and the so-called standard deduction -- the amount of personal income not subject to federal income tax -- will be doubled, while some other deductions are removed. Theres isnt much more detail than that, making it difficult to put a price tag on the proposal. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, or CRFB, attempted to analyze the one-pagers potential effect on the debt, making a lot of assumptions along the way. Their best guess, which was quickly eaten up by Trumps critics on TV, was an increase to the debt of $5.5 trillion, or somewhere between $3 trillion to $7 trillion. Theres other ways to offset tax cuts than economic growth: you can raise rates on other taxes, like through a tax on imports, as House Republicans want. Or you can limit tax breaks, cut spending, or do some combination of these, and its certainly possible the Trump administration will explore these options. AWhite House fact sheetby chief economic advisor Gary Cohn on April 26 did make a passing reference to nixing some tax breaks for the wealthy. But the administration has offered no specifics on paying for the cuts, and as ofApril 20Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin was still insisting, The deal will pay for itself. So lets set aside for now the other ways the administration may seek to offset lost revenue from tax cuts. For Trumps tax cuts to pay for themselves, the economy would have to grow by $5.5 trillion, or roughly a sustained 4.5 percent, for the next 10 years, according to CRFB. Thats a mark that any president is unlikely to hit. Trump promised during the campaign to have4 percent growth per year.Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has since said thetarget is 3 percent growth. In reality, the average annual growth rate since 2001 has been 1.8 percent,according to Vox. Most experts we interviewed concurred with Foroohar that the idea that tax cuts could spur the level of growth needed is not realistic. One economist went further than Foroohar, noting that steep tax cuts may actually impede economic growth. Several experts cautioned that isolating tax cuts as the sole cause of whatever economic conditions are to follow is more than a little tricky, since good or bad economic conditions can coincide with tax cuts and affect federal revenue. Another caveat is that tax cuts can be manipulated to look as if theyre boosting growth when theyre really not -- asweve shownbefore. While tax cuts dont pay for themselves fully, tax cuts can generate some growth. For instance, take a 2005 study by the Congressional Budget Office that asked what would happen if Americans got a 10 percent income tax cut. Under CBOs most optimistic projection, nearly one-third of the tax cut would be offset by additional tax revenue over 10 years. (Well get to their pessimistic projection soon.) N. Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard University economist and former chairman of the Presidents Council of Economic Advisers under George W. Bush, shared a similar view. A reasonable rule of thumb, in my judgment, is that about one-third of the cost of tax cuts is recouped via faster economic growth, Mankiw said. Edward Kleinbard, a professor of law and business at the University of Southern California, said smart corporate tax reform could stimulate the economy somewhat -- but at a net loss. A really well-designed corporate tax reform package, including a rate cut, would be accretive to growth, he said, but not enough to pay for any resulting large-scale deficits. So tax cuts can create some growth, according to the experts. But are there any historical cases of tax cuts producing so much growth they fully pay for themselves? I am not aware of any credible evidence (in the U.S.) over the last several decades of a broad-based tax cut paying for itself, said Alan Auerbach, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley. I don't think this is at all controversial among actual economists. Kleinbard was similarly emphatic: There is no time in modern history where tax cuts could be said to pay for themselves. According to Kleinbard, the 1981 tax cuts triggered massive federal deficits and were largely reversed within three years. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 was basically revenue neutral, he said, meaning tax cuts were virtually offset by spending cuts. He added that President Bill Clintons tax hike was followed by robust growth, while the George W. Bush tax cuts led to anemic growth. None of the experts interviewed cited evidence that tax cuts under President Barack Obama produced sufficient growth to pay for themselves either. On the contrary, theres some evidence that tax cuts can be a drag on the economy -- like the 2005 CBO study mentioned earlier. When the CBO studied the effects of a hypothetical 10 percent income tax cut for Americans, not all the projections were as rosy as the finding above. Under the CBOs most pessimistic projection, tax cuts would lead to a 3 percent increase in lost revenue over 10 years. Indeed, tax cuts can have a number of adverse effects that may actually impede growth, according to Kleinbard. One example is a phenomenon known as the crowding out effect. The basic idea is that tax cuts create deficits that cause the government to borrow more money and therefore enter deeper debt, which can make private sector borrowing more expensive. Our ruling Foroohar said, There's no real evidence in the last 20 years that growth from tax cuts has made up lost revenue. We searched high and low and found no economic experts who could point us to evidence of tax cuts fully paying for themselves. Neither the modern historical record (using fair benchmarks) nor government analyses we looked at supported the claim that tax cuts create enough growth to eventually offset lost revenue. On the contrary, theres evidence that tax cuts may actually hinder economic growth. We rate Foroohars statement True. Claim:  President Obama plans to implement a pay freeze for active duty military personnel in 2011.  Example:  [Collected via e-mail, November 2010] On Facebook, there is the following message "reposted" by a friend, and who knows how far gone it has been around: "Dear Mr. President, I hear you would like to freeze pay rates for active duty starting next year. Would you also consider cutting your own pay to save more money for our country? While you're at it, lets cut congressman's pay too. If the people who risk their lives don't get an increase in pay, why would we continue raising pay for those who take no risks and reap the benefits? Repost if you agree!"    Origins:  As of the time this item was circulating via Facebook postings in November 2010, it was not true that President Obama had announced an intention to freeze the pay of active duty military personnel starting in 2011.  (In fact, President Obama's fiscal 2011 budget proposal, submitted in February 2010, called for a 1.4% military pay bump for the following year.) budget proposal The November 2010 circulation of this item was prompted by a draft report prepared by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (NCFRR), a bipartisan body created by President Obama "to address our nation's fiscal challenges."  Among the 58 recommendations included in that draft report, released in November 2010, was a recommendation for a three-year freeze on basic non-combat military pay and allowances: draft report NCFRR Freeze non-combat military pay at 2011 levels for 3 years Regular Military Compensation (excluding combat pay) for military personnel, which includes basic pay, basic allowances for housing and subsistence, and federal income tax advantages that go along with the allowances, is expected to grow by $9.2 billion from 2011 to 2015. A three-year freeze at 2011 levels for these compensation categories would save the federal government $7.6 billion in compensation and tax expenditures, as well as another $1.6 billion in less retirement accrual, or $9.2 billion total discretionary savings in 2015. However, as noted above, the NCFRR's report was merely a draft, and a military pay freeze was but one of several dozen potential items offered to achieve the goal of saving $200 billion in federal expenditures through 2015. Any such proposal, even if considered, would still have to overcome several hurdles before being enacted, including approval by 14 of the 18 commissioners who comprise the NCFRR and then subsequent approval by both the Senate and the House of Representatives.    In December 2010, Congress approved President Obama's recommended 1.4% pay increase for military personnel, while President Obama announced that he would freeze for two years the salaries of all other federal government workers. As for presidential compensation (which is currently set at $400,000 per year, with a $50,000 expense allowance), the salary of the President of the United States is established by Congress, so a president cannot technically "cut his own pay" (although he might opt to decline some or all of his salary, or donate it to charity).  Members of Congress could vote to decrease their salaries (which are currently set at $174,000 per year), although they have already voted to decline their cost-of-living pay increases in 2009 and again in 2010. decline Last updated:  13 January 2011    Pincus, Walter.  "House Approves Defense Bill with Lower Pay Raise for Military."   The Washington Post.  18 December 2010.    Vinch, Chuck.  "Panel Calls for 3-Year Freeze on Military Pay."   Army Times.  11 November 2010.