One has the outcome that you desire. The probability of winning will be 1 3rd if you don't switch. Likewise, your probability of losing, well, there's two ways that you can lose out of three possibilities. It's going to be 2 3rd, and these are the only possibilities, and these add up to one right over here. So don't switch 1 3rd chance of winning. Now let's think about the switching situation. So let's say always, when you always switch, let's think about how this might play out.