If we assume that we were randomly taking, if Bill was truly randomly taking these things out of the bowl and not cheating in some way, what's the probability that that would happen, that three nights in a row, Bill would not be picked? I encourage you to pause the video and think about that. Well, let's think about the probability that Bill's not picked on a given night. If it's truly random, so we're going to assume, we're going to assume that Bill's not cheating. So assume, assume truly random, truly random and that each of the sheets of paper have a one in four chance of being picked. What's the probability that Bill does not get picked? Well, there's, so let me, the probability that, I guess I'm gonna write this, Bill not picked on a night, on a night, well, there's four equally likely outcomes and three of them result in Bill not getting picked.