If Paul chooses the high deductible plan, he will have to pay the first $2,500 of any medical costs. The high deductible plan costs $7,500 a year. And it makes sense that the high deductible plan costs less than the low deductible plan because here the insurance doesn't kick in until he has over $2,500 of medical expenses while here it was only 1,000. To help himself choose a plan, Paul found some statistics about common health problems for people similar to him. Assume that the table below, and I put it up here on the right, correctly shows the probabilities and costs of total medical incidents within the next year. So this right over here, it's saying what's the probability he has zero in medical costs? What's the probability, he has a 25% probability of $1,000, 20% probability $4,000.