We're going to lift door number three and we're going to expose this goat, in which case it probably would be good for the person to switch. If the person picks door number two, then we as the game show can show either door number one or door number three, and then it actually does not make sense for the person to switch. If they picked door number three, then we have to show door number one because we can't pick door number two, and in that case it actually makes a lot of sense for the person to switch. Now, with that out of the way, let's think about the probabilities given the two strategies. If you don't switch, or another way to think about this strategy is you always stick to your guns. You always stick to your first guess. Well, in that situation, what is your probability of winning?