Question ID:PT41 S3 Q8 Passage:Travel writer:  A vacationer should choose an airline that has had an accident in the past 5 years. Though this may seem counterintuitive, studies show that the average airline has 1 accident every 5 years. So if an airline has had no accident during the past 5 years, the chances that the airline will have a crash are increased. Stem:The flawed reasoning in the travel writer's argument is most similar to that in which one of the following arguments? Correct Answer Choice:BChoice A:A tossed coin has come up heads 100 times in a row. It is therefore reasonable to believe that the coin is not fair, and thus that it is more likely to come up heads than tails when it is flipped again. Choice B:If there are 10 adult male baboons in a troop, the chance of an average adult male baboon ascending to dominance in any given year is 1 in 10. Thus, if an adult male baboon has been in the troop more than 10 years and has never ascended to dominance, then the chance of his doing so is now better than 1 in 10. Choice C:On a given day, an average resident's chance of being involved in a traffic accident in a certain city is 1 in 10,000. Therefore, the chance of Marty, a 5-year-old resident, being involved in a traffic accident in the city on any given day is also 1 in 10,000. Choice D:The average adolescent who works full-time in a certain country makes about 76 cents for every dollar that an adult who works full-time there makes. Therefore, since in this country the average adolescent who works part-time makes less than the average adolescent who works full-time, the average adolescent who works part-time makes less than 76 cents for every dollar made by an employed adult. Choice E:Though until recently this chess grandmaster had responded to opening move X with move Y half of the time, in the current tournament he has responded to move X with move Y 90 percent of the time. Thus, in the next game of the current tournament, he is 90 percent likely to respond to move X with move Y.