Cooling interest in a warming Arctic?
Ottawa in Canada is hosting a conference on “Arctic Change”. With climate change making access to the Arctic easier, interest has increased. But the forecast boom in economic activity appears to have been put "on ice".
The Arctic has been high on Canada's agenda over the past two years, with the country at the helm of the Arctic Council, the international body which regulates and coordinates what happens in the far north of the planet. As the country prepares to hand over the rotating presidency to the USA at the end of the year, the annual conference organized by the research network ArcticNet has aroused considerable interest, with more than 1200 leading international Arctic researchers, indigenous leaders, policy makers, NGOs and business people meeting in Ottawa to discuss the pressing issues facing the warming Arctic. Permafrost not so permanent? Hugues Lantuit from Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute is a member of the steering committee. The permafrost expert told DW with the latest IPCC report projecting the Arctic would continue to warm at a rate faster than any place on earth, the region had to prepare for greater impacts. While the retreat of sea ice allows easier access for shipping and more scope for commercial activities, Lantuit is concerned about the thawing of permafrost, a key topic at the Ottawa gathering: “An extensive part of the circumpolar north is covered with permafrost. Permafrost is frozen ground, and it's currently warming at a fast pace. A lot of cities are built on permafrost, and the layer that is thawing in the summer is expanding and getting deeper and deeper, which threatens infrastructure.” Community concern People live in Arctic regions of Russia, Canada, Alaska and Svalbard, which belongs to Norway. Residents of northern communities are concerned about the impact of melting permafrost on railways, landing strips and buildings. Lantuit and his colleagues have created an integrated data base for permafrost temperature, with support from the EU. One aim of the meeting is to identify the priorities for research, taking into account the needs of communities and stakeholders in the Arctic. Another key issue on the Ottawa agenda is coastal erosion. Sea ice acts as a protective barrier to the coast, preventing waves from battering the shore and speeding up the thaw of permafrost. With decreasing sea ice in the summer, scientists expect more storms will impact on the coasts of the Arctic. “In some locations, especially in Alaska, we see much greater erosion than there was before”, says Lantuit. This creates a lot of issues: “There is oil and gas infrastructure on the coast, villages, people, also freshwater habitats for migrating caribou, so the coast has a tremendous social and ecological value in the Arctic, and coastal erosion is obviously a threat to settlements and to the features of this social and economical presence in the Arctic." Biodiversity under threat Amongst the participants at the conference is George Divoky, an ornithologist who has spent every summer of the past 45 years on Cooper Island, off the coast of Barrow, in Arctic Alaska. Divoky monitors a colony of black guillemots that nest on the island in summer. His bird-watching project turned into a climate change observation project as he witnessed major changes in the last four decades: “Warming first aided the guillemots (1970s and 1980) as the summer snow-free period increased. The size of the breeding colony increased during the initial stages of warming. Continued warming (1990s to present) caused the sea ice to rapidly retreat in July and August when guillemots are feeding nestlings, and the loss of ice reduced the amount and quality of prey resulting in widespread starvation of nestlings.” The 2014 breeding season on Cooper Island had the lowest number of breeding pairs of Black Guillemots on the island in the last 20 years, Divoky says. Reduced sea ice is increasingly forcing polar bears to seek refuge on the island, eating large numbers of nestlings. Polar bears were rare visitors to the island until 2002. The Arctic and the global climate Divoky is in Ottawa to fit his research and experience into the wider context of climate impacts in the ArcticResearching climate change and its effects are important but of little practical use if the research does not inform government officials and result in policies that address the causes of climate change, Divoky argues. Hugues Lantuit says the UN climate conference currently going on in Peru is important for the Arctic, which, in its own right, influences the whole world climate: “Permafrost contains a lot of what we call organic carbon, and that is stored in the upper part. And if that warms, the carbon is made available to microorganisms that convert it back to carbon dioxide and methane. And we estimate right now that there is twice as much organic carbon in permafrost as there is in the atmosphere”. Lantuit says reducing emissions and reducing temperature is the only way to reduce the thaw of permafrost. But there is no clear mitigation strategy in terms of permafrost directly, he argues. “You would have to put a blanket over the entire permafrost in the northern hemisphere. This is not possible.” What happened to the Arctic gold rush? Communities who live and companies that work in the Arctic have to focus on adaptation to the rapid change, says Lantuit. In his eyes, economic activity is increasing, posing new challenges for infrastructure and the environment. Malte Humpert, the Executive Director of the Arctic Institute, a non-profit think tank based in Washington DC has a different view on the matter. He says while attendance at Arctic conferences and interest in the Arctic is still high, commercial activity has actually been cooling off. “We are seeing a slow-down of investment. Up to this point there has been a lot of studying, a lot of interest being voiced, with representatives from China or South Korea, Japan, Singapore or other actors, arriving at conferences, speaking about grand plans. But up to this point a lot of the talk has been just that.” A lot of activity has been put on hold, says Humpert. He says the "gold rush mentality we saw a few years ago” has weakened. “There was a lot of talk about Arctic shipping initially, then we had oil and gas activity in 2012, north of Alaska, then we had the discussion about minerals in Greenland. The question is now, with the oil price being down below 70$ a barrel, some political uncertainties over the Ukraine, involving the EU and Russia, how will that affect Arctic development?” Humpert stresses the Arctic does not exist in a vacuum, but has to be seen within the global context. Sanctions on Russia because of the Ukraine crisis have created economic problems for Moscow and limited access to technology it might need for its Arctic activities. “Maybe Arctic development has been oversold and overplayed and will be more of a niche operators' investment. One could definitely question if there will be this global push into the Arctic.” Arctic development on ice Humpert is skeptical that any major development will take place before 2030. He says developing the infrastructure in terms of ports and communications in the remote Arctic region would require billions of dollars of investment, and would have to be a very long-term proposition. It will also depend to a large extent on exactly how climate change affects ice conditions in the Arctic. Climate change can make the climatic conditions in the Arctic more variable. This meansthat for a temporary period, there might even be more ice, which would block transport routes. The Arctic Institute says there has actually been a slow down this year in terms of navigation on the northern sea route (NSR) in particular: "The season just closed about a week ago. Last year we had 1.35 million tonnes of cargo being transported along the NSR, this year we had less than 700,000 tonnes, so an almost 50% decrease, just because there was more ice in the way", says Humpert. Whether slower development is good news or bad depends on your perspective. The lull in Arctic activity could pre-empt environmental degradation or destruction, says Humpert, and leave scope to consider development of the Arctic in what he calls a 21st century way. Instead of “old-school” thinking about extracting minerals, oil and gas and increasing shipping, there could be a focus on bringing modern, high-speed communications, fiber optics and thinking about renewables, such as wave energy. This would benefit the small populations in the Arctic, the expert argues. But from the viewpoint of a country like Russia, he adds, where 40 percent of your exports are generated above the Arctic circle, in terms of hydrocarbon resources, the slowdown in Arctic development because of the drop in oil prices and political tensions over Ukraine is very worrying. So while these developments seem to have brought the Arctic a breathing space, ultimately, the commercialization of the region could be just a matter of time. Ottawa conference organizer Lantuit argues that there has always been activity in the high North. The priority now, he says, must be to ensure international cooperation and additional investment in protecting the environment and maintaining safety in a region where rapid change seems to have become the status quo.
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Malte Humpert
Executive Director
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Humpert
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Russia
Russia Russian_Empire Russia_national_football_team Russia_men's_national_ice_hockey_team Russia_men's_national_junior_ice_hockey_team Tsardom_of_Russia Russia_national_rugby_union_team Russian_Soviet_Federative_Socialist_Republic Russian_Football_Union Russia_women's_national_football_team Russia_national_basketball_team Russia_national_rugby_league_team Russia_Fed_Cup_team Russia_national_cerebral_palsy_football_team Russia_national_handball_team Russia_Davis_Cup_team
Ukraine
Ukraine Ukraine_national_football_team Ukrainian_Soviet_Socialist_Republic List_of_non-marine_molluscs_of_Ukraine Football_Federation_of_Ukraine ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_in_Ukraine Ukraine_women's_national_football_team Ukraine_national_cerebral_palsy_football_team Ukraine_national_under-21_football_team Ukraine_national_under-19_football_team Ukraine_Fed_Cup_team Ukrainian_Basketball_SuperLeague Ukraine_national_rugby_union_team Ukraine_national_basketball_team Ukraine_at_the_2008_Summer_Olympics Ukrainian_People's_Republic
Moscow
Moscow Moscow,_Idaho Kremlin_Cup Moscow_Oblast Moscow_Governorate FC_Moscow Luzhniki_Stadium Grand_Duchy_of_Moscow Moscow_State_University Moscow,_Pennsylvania Moscow_Metro 1980_Summer_Olympics Moscow_Raceway Battle_of_Moscow Moscow,_Tennessee Megasport_Sport_Palace
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Humpert
2030
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Arctic Institute
Arctic_and_Antarctic_Research_Institute The_Arctic_Institute_–_Center_for_Circumpolar_Security_Studies
northern sea route
NSR
NSR
Humpert
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Humpert
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Russia
Russia Russian_Empire Russia_national_football_team Russia_men's_national_ice_hockey_team Russia_men's_national_junior_ice_hockey_team Tsardom_of_Russia Russia_national_rugby_union_team Russian_Soviet_Federative_Socialist_Republic Russian_Football_Union Russia_women's_national_football_team Russia_national_basketball_team Russia_national_rugby_league_team Russia_Fed_Cup_team Russia_national_cerebral_palsy_football_team Russia_national_handball_team Russia_Davis_Cup_team
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Ukraine
Ukraine Ukraine_national_football_team Ukrainian_Soviet_Socialist_Republic List_of_non-marine_molluscs_of_Ukraine Football_Federation_of_Ukraine ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_in_Ukraine Ukraine_women's_national_football_team Ukraine_national_cerebral_palsy_football_team Ukraine_national_under-21_football_team Ukraine_national_under-19_football_team Ukraine_Fed_Cup_team Ukrainian_Basketball_SuperLeague Ukraine_national_rugby_union_team Ukraine_national_basketball_team Ukraine_at_the_2008_Summer_Olympics Ukrainian_People's_Republic
Arctic
Arctic Arctic_Ocean Arctic_convoys_of_World_War_II Arctic_(company) Climate_of_the_Arctic Arctic_Circle Northern_Canada Arctic_(film) Arctic_tundra Cold-weather_warfare Arctic_tern Arctic_(journal) SS_Arctic Arctic_fox Far_North_(Russia) Diocese_of_The_Arctic
Ottawa
Ottawa Ottawa_Senators Odawa Ottawa,_Illinois Ottawa_County,_Ohio Ottawa_County,_Michigan National_Register_of_Historic_Places_listings_in_Ottawa_County,_Oklahoma Ottawa_County,_Oklahoma Ottawa_Gee-Gees Ottawa,_Kansas Ottawa_County,_Kansas 2017–18_Ottawa_Senators_season 2016–17_Ottawa_Senators_season University_of_Ottawa 2015–16_Ottawa_Senators_season 2014–15_Ottawa_Senators_season
conference organizer
Lantuit
North
North_America North North_Korea North_Island North_Carolina North_Province_(Western_Australia) Northern_United_States North_(1994_film) North_of_England_cricket_team True_north Northern_Province,_Sri_Lanka F.C._Copenhagen North_Dakota North_Vietnam North_Africa North_Sea
Black Guillemots
Black_guillemot
iptc::13000000 topic::science type::entity type::misc type::species
Arctic Institute
The_Arctic_Institute_–_Center_for_Circumpolar_Security_Studies
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::ngo type::organization type::policy_institute
Arctic
Arctic
slot::keyword topic::none type::entity type::location type::regio
Ottawa
Ottawa
slot::in slot::keyword topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe2 type::location
ArcticNet
ArcticNet
meta::todo slot::keyword topic::none type::entity type::organization
Hugues Lantuit
gender::male iptc::13000000 topic::science type::entity type::person type::researcher
George Divoky
gender::male iptc::13000000 topic::science type::entity type::person type::science_per
Malte Humpert
gender::male iptc::11000000 meta::redo topic::politics type::entity type::person type::politics_per
Canada
Canada
slot::in topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Arctic Council
Arctic_Council
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::igo type::organization
USA
United_States
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
research network
topic::none type::role type::value
Germany
Germany
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Alfred Wegener Institute
Alfred_Wegener_Institute_for_Polar_and_Marine_Research
iptc::13000000 topic::science type::entity type::organization type::research_center
DW
Deutsche_Welle
topic::media type::entity type::media type::organization
IPCC
Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change
meta::todo topic::none type::entity type::organization
Russia
Russia
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Alaska
Alaska
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe1 type::location
Svalbard
Svalbard
type::entity type::island type::location
Norway
Norway
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
EU
European_Union
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::igo type::organization type::so
Cooper Island
Cooper_Islands
type::entity type::island type::location
Barrow
Utqiagvik,_Alaska
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe2 type::location
1970
topic::none type::time type::value
1980
topic::none type::time type::value
1990
topic::none type::time type::value
July
topic::none type::time type::value
August
topic::none type::time type::value
2014
topic::none type::time type::value
2002
topic::none type::time type::value
ArcticResearching
meta::invalid
UN
United_Nations
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::igo type::organization
Peru
Peru
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Executive Director
topic::none type::role type::value
Washington DC
Washington,_D.C.
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China
China
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
South Korea
South_Korea
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Japan
Japan
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Singapore
Singapore
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
2012
topic::none type::time type::value
Greenland
Greenland
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
70$
topic::none type::money type::value
Ukraine
Ukraine
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Moscow
Moscow
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe2 type::location
2030
topic::none type::time type::value
northern sea route
topic::none type::none type::other type::skip
NSR
topic::none type::none type::other type::skip
conference organizer
topic::none type::role type::value
North
topic::none type::entity type::location type::regio