Israel contemplates worst-case scenarios as Egypt's crisis deepens
With Egypt's opposition movement gaining momentum and President Hosni Mubarak under increasing pressure, Israel is watching developments with concern as one its few Arab allies in the Middle East teeters on the brink.
Egypt and Jordan are the only Arab countries that have signed peace deals with Israel, ensuring almost three decades of sometimes lukewarm detente between the countries, a period of time which has seen Israeli and Egyptian officials maintain low-profile consultations on many regional developments, including the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Egypt has been a key mediator in the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians; frequently hosting peace summits, brokering Palestinian reconciliation talks and mediating indirect discussions on possible prisoner swaps. All that could soon change, however. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week ordered his cabinet to refrain from commenting publicly on the popular uprising in Egypt but within the halls of power, it is well know that the Israeli administration is becoming increasingly nervous. A country which has acted as a counterweight to the majority view that Israel has no right to exist in the region could soon see Mubarak, one of the main architects of that balancing act for the last 30 years, removed from power. Who could take his place is a question that has Israeli military planners huddled over maps in darkened rooms. The common belief in the Jewish State is that popular sentiment in Egypt is anti-Israel and that the only people in Egypt who are committed to peace with Israel are those in President Mubarak's inner circle. Eli Shaked, a former Israeli ambassador to Cairo, wrote in the Yediot Aharonot newspaper recently that if the next president of Egypt is not from this inner circle then Israel is "going to be in trouble." Israel fears growth of Egyptian Islamist support for Hamas One of the biggest concerns for Israel is the possible rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Israelis who fear this scenario often refer to a 2008 Gallup poll which showed that 64 percent of Egyptians want Islamic law instituted in their country. Such a radical swing would almost certainly lead to a fracture in the Israel-Egypt peace accord. Any new Egyptian government which is unfriendly to Israel would present the Netanyahu administration with a series of potential flashpoints. In the case of an Islamist leadership taking over, Egypt's support for Hamas, the Gaza Strip's Islamic rulers, could increase, perhaps emboldening the militant group to launch a takeover of the Palestinian Authority-controlled West Bank. "The main fear is that there will be a coalition government in Egypt headed by the Muslim Brotherhood," Yossi Mekelberg, an international relations lecturer at Regents College London and Middle East expert at Chatham House, told Deutsche Welle. "Hamas is an offshoot of the Brotherhood so of course this will make things very difficult for Israel." Dr. Muriel Asseburg, head of the Middle East and Africa Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, believes that external policies and relations with Israel are not among the immediate objectives of any of the opposition groups in Egypt but shockwaves will still be felt outside the country should a new power take charge. "Any interim government will struggle to reestablish stability, law and order and take measures that aim to alleviate social and economic grievances," she told Deutsche Welle. "For none of the opposition forces, including the Muslim Brotherhood, relations with Israel will be a priority though.” Mekelberg added that any coalition headed by the Muslim Brotherhood would change the climate in the region and fan what many experts are calling the flames of revolution. This could have dramatic implications for Gaza and the West Bank, he said. Analysts in the Jewish media have speculated that the Palestinians could take the opportunity afforded them by the rise of a sympathetic government in Egypt and the unrest in the region to advance their pursuit of a sovereign country without waiting for an accord with Israel. This, it is feared, could take the form of a new intifada. In addition to this possibility, an anti-Israel government in Egypt could threaten Israel's energy supplies - Egypt supplies around 40 percent of Israel's gas consumption - and could potentially oppose Israeli naval ships passing through the Suez Canal, where they have operated in a bid to prevent arms smuggling from Sudan to Gaza. Spreading pro-democracy unrest could upset old order There is also a concern that, should Mubarak's regime fall, the knock-on effect would also prompt an uprising in Jordan which has already seen a number of low-key pro-democracy protests. Jordanians are also angry about soaring food prices, escalating poverty and the unpopular policies of the government. Israel is concerned that if Jordan should fall - and if Islamist forces take power there also - it will find itself surrounded in a way it has not been in decades. "Jordan is ripe for revolution," Mekelberg said. "There is a majority of Palestinians there who are fervent supporters of Hamas while the legitimacy of the government and King Abdullah is limited." With Egypt and Jordan in unfriendly hands, and with former ally Turkey increasingly turning toward Iran and Syria, Netanyahu could find himself without an ally in the region and may find that he needs to step up the tentative efforts Israel has already made to reach a peace agreement with Damascus. Israel may be forced to forge alliances with old foes As the Middle East faces a violent shake-up of the old regional order, Israel may be forced to align itself with Syrian President Bashar Assad who shares a desire to maintain the current status quo. "It's ironic that the rise of Islamist governments in Egypt and Jordan may force Israel to turn to Syria," Mekelberg said. "The status quo in the Middle East is an illusion; the old order cannot be kept forever like the Israelis and the Syrians believe. The Israelis have been told that this could happen if they did not solve the Palestinian situation and other governments didn't deal with unemployment, poverty and corruption. These are the elements of which revolutions are made of." However, some analysts believe that even if a government less friendly to Israel takes power in Egypt, the new leadership would most likely want to maintain some kind of continuity in relations. "Israel's concerns about a regime change are quite understandable," Asseburg said. "Hosni Mubarak has defended Egyptian-Israeli peace and diplomatic relations ever since he has been in power." "Still, even after the end of the Mubarak regime, we should not expect an end to peace with Israel or military threats towards Israel. What we should expect in the mid-term, though, is a further cooling of relations." Author: Nick Amies Editor: Rob Mudge
Israel
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Suez_Canal Raid_on_the_Suez_Canal Suez_Crisis
Sudan
Sudan Sudan_national_football_team Sudan_(region) Sudan_Football_Association Anglo-Egyptian_Sudan Sudan_(film) Flag_of_Sudan History_of_Sudan_(1956–69) Sudanese_Armed_Forces Sudan,_Texas Sudan_(rhinoceros) United_Nations_Mission_in_Sudan LGBT_rights_in_Sudan Mahdist_War History_of_Sudan_(1969–85) Football_in_Sudan
Gaza
Gaza_City Gaza_Strip Gaza_Sanjak Gaza_Province Gaza_(Battle_honour) Third_Battle_of_Gaza Gaza_(band) Gaza_Empire Gaza_Football_Club Gaza_Governorate First_Battle_of_Gaza Gaza_War_(2008–09) Gaza–Israel_conflict Gaza_(comics) The_West_Wing_(season_5) Gaza_(gastropod)
Mubarak
Hosni_Mubarak Mubarak_(name) Mubarak_Wakaso History_of_Egypt_under_Hosni_Mubarak Taqi_Mubarak_Al-Siyabi Mubarak_Ghanim Jehan_Mubarak
Jordan
Jordan Jordan_Grand_Prix Jordan_national_football_team Karl_Jordan Jordan_River Michael_Jordan David_Starr_Jordan Jordan_Football_Association Jordan,_Minnesota Joe_Jordan Katie_Price Jordan,_Hong_Kong List_of_years_in_Jordan Jordan_women's_national_football_team DeAndre_Jordan Jordan_national_basketball_team
Jordanians
Israel
Israel Israel_national_football_team Kingdom_of_Israel_(Samaria) Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Israel Unregistered_cohabitation_in_Israel Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League Israel_national_under-21_football_team Israel_Football_Association Israelites Land_of_Israel Israel_Fed_Cup_team Israel_national_basketball_team Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest Israel_national_cricket_team History_of_ancient_Israel_and_Judah Israel_Davis_Cup_team
Jordan
Jordan Jordan_Grand_Prix Jordan_national_football_team Karl_Jordan Jordan_River Michael_Jordan David_Starr_Jordan Jordan_Football_Association Jordan,_Minnesota Joe_Jordan Katie_Price Jordan,_Hong_Kong List_of_years_in_Jordan Jordan_women's_national_football_team DeAndre_Jordan Jordan_national_basketball_team
Islamist
Jordan
Jordan Jordan_Grand_Prix Jordan_national_football_team Karl_Jordan Jordan_River Michael_Jordan David_Starr_Jordan Jordan_Football_Association Jordan,_Minnesota Joe_Jordan Katie_Price Jordan,_Hong_Kong List_of_years_in_Jordan Jordan_women's_national_football_team DeAndre_Jordan Jordan_national_basketball_team
Mekelberg
Palestinians
Hamas
Hamas Hamas_(horse) Governance_of_the_Gaza_Strip Movement_of_Society_for_Peace
King
Abdullah
Abdullah_of_Saudi_Arabia Abdullah_I_of_Jordan Abdullah_(film) Abdullah_II_of_Jordan Abdullah_(name) Abdallah_ibn_Abd_al-Muttalib Abdullah_Abdullah Abdullah_Khadr Abdullah_(horse) Abdullah_the_Butcher Abdullah_ibn_Ja'far Abdullah_(band) Abd-Allah_ibn_Jahsh Abdullah_ibn_Abi_Bakr Abdullah_bin_Zayed_Al_Nahyan Abdullah_Çevrim
Egypt
Egypt Egypt_national_football_team Ancient_Egypt Egypt_(Roman_province) Kingdom_of_Egypt Egypt_Eyalet Egypt_in_the_Middle_Ages Egyptian_Football_Association Ptolemaic_Kingdom Egypt_national_basketball_team Khedivate_of_Egypt History_of_ancient_Egypt Egypt_national_handball_team Egypt_Fed_Cup_team Egypt_women's_national_squash_team Egyptian_revolution_of_2011
Jordan
Jordan Jordan_Grand_Prix Jordan_national_football_team Karl_Jordan Jordan_River Michael_Jordan David_Starr_Jordan Jordan_Football_Association Jordan,_Minnesota Joe_Jordan Katie_Price Jordan,_Hong_Kong List_of_years_in_Jordan Jordan_women's_national_football_team DeAndre_Jordan Jordan_national_basketball_team
Turkey
Turkey Turkey_national_football_team Turkey_(bird) Basketbol_Süper_Ligi Turkish_Football_Federation Turkey_as_food Ottoman_Empire Wild_turkey Turkey_national_basketball_team ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_in_Turkey Domestic_turkey Turkey_national_under-21_football_team Turkey_Fed_Cup_team Turkey_national_under-19_football_team Turkey_women's_national_football_team Turkey_women's_national_volleyball_team
Iran
Iran Iran_national_football_team Pahlavi_dynasty Football_Federation_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran Iran_national_futsal_team Iran_national_basketball_team Iran_national_cerebral_palsy_football_team Qajar_dynasty Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Volleyball_Federation Iran_men's_national_volleyball_team Iran_national_beach_soccer_team Iran_Fed_Cup_team Cinema_of_Iran Greater_Iran Football_in_Iran List_of_non-marine_molluscs_of_Iran
Syria
Syria Roman_Syria Syria_national_football_team Bilad_al-Sham Syria_(region) Ottoman_Syria Syrian_Arab_Federation_for_Football Syrian_Civil_War French_Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon Syrian_Republic_(1946–1963) Mandatory_Syrian_Republic Syria–Lebanon_Campaign History_of_Syria Greater_Syria Arab_Kingdom_of_Syria Seleucid_Empire
Netanyahu
Benjamin_Netanyahu Nathan_Netanyahu
Israel
Israel Israel_national_football_team Kingdom_of_Israel_(Samaria) Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Israel Unregistered_cohabitation_in_Israel Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League Israel_national_under-21_football_team Israel_Football_Association Israelites Land_of_Israel Israel_Fed_Cup_team Israel_national_basketball_team Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest Israel_national_cricket_team History_of_ancient_Israel_and_Judah Israel_Davis_Cup_team
Damascus
Damascus Damascus_(horse) Damascus,_Maryland Damascus_Eyalet Damascus_Governorate Capture_of_Damascus Damascus,_Arkansas Damascus,_Virginia Damascus,_Oregon Damascus_steel State_of_Damascus Jund_Dimashq Damascus,_Georgia Aram-Damascus Damascus_International_Airport Damascus,_Ohio
Israel
Israel Israel_national_football_team Kingdom_of_Israel_(Samaria) Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Israel Unregistered_cohabitation_in_Israel Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League Israel_national_under-21_football_team Israel_Football_Association Israelites Land_of_Israel Israel_Fed_Cup_team Israel_national_basketball_team Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest Israel_national_cricket_team History_of_ancient_Israel_and_Judah Israel_Davis_Cup_team
Middle East
Middle_East Mediterranean_and_Middle_East_theatre_of_World_War_II Middle_Eastern_theatre_of_World_War_I Middle_East_Command Middle_Eastern_cuisine The_Middle_East_(nightclub) History_of_the_Middle_East Boomerang_(Middle_East_and_Africa) Western_Asia RAF_Middle_East_Command Middle_East,_Baltimore Ancient_Near_East Arab_Colombians Syria–Lebanon_Campaign Bangladeshis_in_the_Middle_East Middle_Eastern_studies
Israel
Israel Israel_national_football_team Kingdom_of_Israel_(Samaria) Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Israel Unregistered_cohabitation_in_Israel Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League Israel_national_under-21_football_team Israel_Football_Association Israelites Land_of_Israel Israel_Fed_Cup_team Israel_national_basketball_team Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest Israel_national_cricket_team History_of_ancient_Israel_and_Judah Israel_Davis_Cup_team
Syrian
President
Bashar Assad
Bashar_al-Assad
Islamist
Egypt
Egypt Egypt_national_football_team Ancient_Egypt Egypt_(Roman_province) Kingdom_of_Egypt Egypt_Eyalet Egypt_in_the_Middle_Ages Egyptian_Football_Association Ptolemaic_Kingdom Egypt_national_basketball_team Khedivate_of_Egypt History_of_ancient_Egypt Egypt_national_handball_team Egypt_Fed_Cup_team Egypt_women's_national_squash_team Egyptian_revolution_of_2011
Jordan
Jordan Jordan_Grand_Prix Jordan_national_football_team Karl_Jordan Jordan_River Michael_Jordan David_Starr_Jordan Jordan_Football_Association Jordan,_Minnesota Joe_Jordan Katie_Price Jordan,_Hong_Kong List_of_years_in_Jordan Jordan_women's_national_football_team DeAndre_Jordan Jordan_national_basketball_team
Israel
Israel Israel_national_football_team Kingdom_of_Israel_(Samaria) Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Israel Unregistered_cohabitation_in_Israel Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League Israel_national_under-21_football_team Israel_Football_Association Israelites Land_of_Israel Israel_Fed_Cup_team Israel_national_basketball_team Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest Israel_national_cricket_team History_of_ancient_Israel_and_Judah Israel_Davis_Cup_team
Syria
Syria Roman_Syria Syria_national_football_team Bilad_al-Sham Syria_(region) Ottoman_Syria Syrian_Arab_Federation_for_Football Syrian_Civil_War French_Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon Syrian_Republic_(1946–1963) Mandatory_Syrian_Republic Syria–Lebanon_Campaign History_of_Syria Greater_Syria Arab_Kingdom_of_Syria Seleucid_Empire
Mekelberg
Middle East
Middle_East Mediterranean_and_Middle_East_theatre_of_World_War_II Middle_Eastern_theatre_of_World_War_I Middle_East_Command Middle_Eastern_cuisine The_Middle_East_(nightclub) History_of_the_Middle_East Boomerang_(Middle_East_and_Africa) Western_Asia RAF_Middle_East_Command Middle_East,_Baltimore Ancient_Near_East Arab_Colombians Syria–Lebanon_Campaign Bangladeshis_in_the_Middle_East Middle_Eastern_studies
Israelis
Syrians
Israelis
Palestinian
Israel
Israel Israel_national_football_team Kingdom_of_Israel_(Samaria) Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Israel Unregistered_cohabitation_in_Israel Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League Israel_national_under-21_football_team Israel_Football_Association Israelites Land_of_Israel Israel_Fed_Cup_team Israel_national_basketball_team Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest Israel_national_cricket_team History_of_ancient_Israel_and_Judah Israel_Davis_Cup_team
Egypt
Egypt Egypt_national_football_team Ancient_Egypt Egypt_(Roman_province) Kingdom_of_Egypt Egypt_Eyalet Egypt_in_the_Middle_Ages Egyptian_Football_Association Ptolemaic_Kingdom Egypt_national_basketball_team Khedivate_of_Egypt History_of_ancient_Egypt Egypt_national_handball_team Egypt_Fed_Cup_team Egypt_women's_national_squash_team Egyptian_revolution_of_2011
Israel
Israel Israel_national_football_team Kingdom_of_Israel_(Samaria) Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Israel Unregistered_cohabitation_in_Israel Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League Israel_national_under-21_football_team Israel_Football_Association Israelites Land_of_Israel Israel_Fed_Cup_team Israel_national_basketball_team Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest Israel_national_cricket_team History_of_ancient_Israel_and_Judah Israel_Davis_Cup_team
Asseburg
Asseburg_(castle) House_of_Asseburg
Hosni Mubarak
Hosni_Mubarak History_of_Egypt_under_Hosni_Mubarak
Egyptian
Israeli
Mubarak
Hosni_Mubarak Mubarak_(name) Mubarak_Wakaso History_of_Egypt_under_Hosni_Mubarak Taqi_Mubarak_Al-Siyabi Mubarak_Ghanim Jehan_Mubarak
Israel
Israel Israel_national_football_team Kingdom_of_Israel_(Samaria) Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Israel Unregistered_cohabitation_in_Israel Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League Israel_national_under-21_football_team Israel_Football_Association Israelites Land_of_Israel Israel_Fed_Cup_team Israel_national_basketball_team Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest Israel_national_cricket_team History_of_ancient_Israel_and_Judah Israel_Davis_Cup_team
Israel
Israel Israel_national_football_team Kingdom_of_Israel_(Samaria) Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Israel Unregistered_cohabitation_in_Israel Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League Israel_national_under-21_football_team Israel_Football_Association Israelites Land_of_Israel Israel_Fed_Cup_team Israel_national_basketball_team Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest Israel_national_cricket_team History_of_ancient_Israel_and_Judah Israel_Davis_Cup_team
Author: Nick Amies Editor: Rob Mudge
Jewish State
Israel
slot::keyword topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Egypt
Egypt
slot::keyword topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Muslim Brotherhood
Muslim_Brotherhood
iptc::11000000 slot::keyword topic::politics type::entity type::organization type::party
Hosni Mubarak
Hosni_Mubarak
gender::male iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::head_of_state type::person type::politician
Yossi Mekelberg
gender::male iptc::05000000 topic::education type::entity type::person type::teacher
Gaza Strip
Gaza_Strip
topic::none type::entity type::location type::regio
Benjamin Netanyahu
Benjamin_Netanyahu
gender::male iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::head_of_gov type::person type::politician
Muriel Asseburg
wikidata:Q30170303
gender::female iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::person type::politics_per
President
topic::none type::role type::value
Arab
Arabs
topic::none type::entity type::ethnicity
Middle East
Middle_East
topic::none type::entity type::location type::regio
Jordan
Jordan
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Israeli
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
Egyptian
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
Palestinian
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
Palestinians
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
Prime Minister
topic::none type::role type::value
Eli Shaked
gender::male iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::gov_per type::person
Cairo
Cairo
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe2 type::location
Yediot Aharonot
Yedioth_Ahronoth
topic::media type::entity type::media type::organization
Islamist
iptc::12000000 topic::none topic::religion type::other type::religion-x
Hamas
Hamas
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::organization type::party
Israelis
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
2008
topic::none type::time type::value
Gallup
Gallup_(company)
topic::media type::entity type::media type::organization
Egyptians
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
Islamic
Islam
iptc::12000000 topic::none topic::religion type::other type::religion-x
Palestinian Authority
Palestinian_National_Authority
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::agency type::entity type::governmental_organisation type::organization
West Bank
West_Bank
topic::none type::entity type::location type::regio
Regents College London
Regent's_University_London
iptc::05000000 topic::education type::education_org type::entity type::organization
Chatham House
Chatham_House
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::organization type::policy_institute
Deutsche Welle
Deutsche_Welle
topic::media type::entity type::media type::organization
Dr.
topic::none type::role type::value
Middle East and Africa Research Division
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::organization type::policy_institute
German Institute for International and Security Affairs
German_Institute_for_International_and_Security_Affairs
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::organization type::policy_institute
Jewish
Jews
iptc::12000000 topic::none topic::religion type::other type::religion-x
Suez Canal
Suez_Canal
topic::none type::entity type::location type::waterbody
Sudan
Sudan
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Jordanians
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
King
topic::none type::role type::value
Abdullah
Abdullah_II_of_Jordan
gender::male iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::head_of_state type::person type::politician
Turkey
Turkey
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Iran
Iran
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Syria
Syria
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Damascus
Damascus
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe2 type::location
Syrian
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
Bashar Assad
Bashar_al-Assad
gender::male iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::head_of_state type::person type::politician
Syrians
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
Author: Nick Amies Editor: Rob Mudge
topic::none type::footer type::other
Islamism
State_of_Palestine
United_Kingdom
Germany