Could migration derail Merkel re-election express?
Angela Merkel is coming under renewed fire over her refugee policies as Germany's election battleground heats up. Left-wing rival Martin Schulz has added his voice to long-standing criticism from the right.
For months, Social Democratic (SPD) candidate Martin Schulz has been trying - and failing - to find an issue to eat away at conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's popularity. In conversation with the Sunday edition of Germany's Bild newspaper, Schulz took aim at what is perhaps Merkel's Achilles heel: her policy toward migrants from Muslim countries. "In 2015 more than 1 million refugees came to Germany, mostly without government monitoring," Schulz told Bild. "The chancellor opened our border with Austria for humanitarian reasons but unfortunately without consulting our partners in Europe. If we don't act now, that situation could repeat itself." Merkel has promised German voters that there will be no repeat of what happened two years ago when hundreds of thousands of people, many fleeing war-torn Syria, arrived in Germany. Numbers of migrants lessened last year but could well be set to rise again as people try to escape political uncertainty and economic hardship of places like Nigeria and Eritrea via North African countries like Libya. Well over 70,000 migrants made the extremely risky Mediterranean crossing to Italy in the first half of this year, representing an increase over 2016 of more than 25 percent. Italy has asked other EU states for help in dealing with the new arrivals, but it has so far been rebuffed. Schulz, who is set to travel to Italy on Thursday, says the EU commission should pay other member states to take in migrants and accuses Merkel of calculated inaction before Germany's September election. "Those who play for time and try to ignore the issue until the national election are just being cynical," Schulz said. At the height of the refugee crisis in 2015 and early 2016, Merkel and her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) fell to historic lows in public opinion polls, with more than 80 percent of those asked saying they believed her government didn't have control over the situation. Merkel and her party have since recovered and currently lead Schulz and the SPD by around 15 percentage points in opinion surveys. Merkel, who's currently on vacation and had no public appearances scheduled for Sunday, didn't immediately respond to Schulz's criticism. And perhaps her main problem on the migrant issue is not from the Social Democrats at all. Attacks from other conservatives Although Schulz may have been trying to capitalize on the issue, Merkel, arguably, has no big reason to fear attacks from the left. As the junior coalition partners in her current government, the SPD supported her welcoming policy toward refugees. The greater threat could come from the right, where Merkel is considerably more liberal than the vast majority of conservatives in Germany and the rest of Europe. The larger the number of migrants grows, the greater the pressure to restrict the flow of people from the Middle East and Northern Africa to Europe. During the week, for instance, Austria's conservative foreign minister, Sebastian Kurz, threatened to close down the Brenner Pass between his country and Italy if the number of illegal migrants to Austria rose. And Merkel has also come under fire on the issue from the CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). On Sunday, the CSU publicly celebrated its platform for the election, entitled the "Bavaria Plan." It calls for the annual number of refugees to Germany to be capped at 200,000 - an idea Merkel has rejected. CSU chairman Horst Seehofer couldn't resist calling out the chancellor on the issue. In an interview with Welt newspaper, Seehofer said "everybody knows" that the "waves of migration will continue." Seehofer predicted that Merkel's decision to open Germany's borders would cost the CDU-CSU an absolute majority in September's election and claimed that conservatives throughout Germany were coming round to the CSU's position. "Because the orientation on refugee policy has changed in our direction, it is again possible to work with the CDU credibly," Seehofer said. Seehofer added that the conservatives' resurgence in opinion polls was down in part to a harder line taken on migrants. And he invoked the specter of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD). "What I think is most important now is to use clever policies to push the AfD below the 5-percent hurdle (needed for parliamentary representation in Germany)," Seehofer said. "That can only happen if we continue to be smart in our policies on security, Turkey, refugees and Europe." Parallel trends between migrants and populism The connection between refugee policy and the AfD cannot be dismissed. Germany's right-wing populists made a quantum leap in the polls, taking over 20 percent of the vote in some regional German elections in 2016, as the effects of the mass arrivals in the preceding years became apparent. But when the Balkan migration route was largely closed, the number of refugees dropped, and the AfD's fortunes took a corresponding downturn. The party currently attracts between 7 and 9 percent in the opinion-polls. The downswing is due to party in-fighting, but also to the general sense among the populace that the refugee "crisis" is easing. The loss of support for the AfD roughly coincides with the conservatives' revival in opinions polls. But that trend itself could very well reverse if the increasing number of migrants coming to Italy results in a spike in new arrivals to Germany before the election. A study published by the Bertelsmann Foundation last November found that fear of globalization was the main driver of support for right-wing populism in Europe, and that the issue of refugees played the largest role in constituting that fear. Political scientists say that migrants and refugees are the single biggest issue inspiring people to vote for the AfD, and that AfD supporters tend to be single-issue voters. An analysis done by the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper after one of the AfD's biggest triumphs in September 2016 showed that 82 percent of the party's voters said that immigration was a major issue. And 17 percent of voters in general said the AfD was best equipped of all the parts to deal with refugees - on other issues, the party struggled to escape the low single digits on the competence question. All of this suggests that the upturn in the number of migrants to Germany this summer would benefit the AfD at the polls and possibly have an effect on Angela Merkel's attempt to win a fourth term as chancellor.
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Angela_Merkel Merkel,_Texas Max_Merkel Merkel_(firearms_manufacturer) Alexander_Merkel Merkel_nerve_ending Flying_Merkel Pierre_Merkel Merkel_(surname) Fred_Merkel Ron_Merkel Germany
Germany
Germany Germany_national_football_team Nazi_Germany German_Empire Germany_women's_national_football_team Weimar_Republic German_Football_Association ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_in_Germany GfK_Entertainment_Charts Germany_national_youth_football_team A1_Team_Germany Germany_national_rugby_union_team Kingdom_of_Germany German_literature Germany_men's_national_ice_hockey_team Same-sex_marriage_in_Germany
CDU
Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany Unitary_Democratic_Coalition Christian_Democratic_Union_(East_Germany) United_Christian_Democrats C.D._Universidade_Agostinho_Neto_(basketball) CDU/CSU Christian_Democratic_Union_(Netherlands) List_of_Christian_democratic_parties CDU_Baden-Württemberg Christian_Democracy_(Italy) Charles_Darwin_University Christian_democracy
CSU
Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria Colorado_State_University Colorado_State_Rams California_State_University Csurgói_KK CS_Universitatea_Craiova Charles_Sturt_University Cleveland_State_Vikings Colorado_State_Rams_men's_basketball Connecticut_State_University_System 1999_Colorado_State_Rams_football_team Colorado_State_Rams_football Cambridge_University_Students'_Union CSU_Galați 2017_Colorado_State_Rams_football_team 2016_Colorado_State_Rams_football_team
September
Germany
Germany Germany_national_football_team Nazi_Germany German_Empire Germany_women's_national_football_team Weimar_Republic German_Football_Association ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_in_Germany GfK_Entertainment_Charts Germany_national_youth_football_team A1_Team_Germany Germany_national_rugby_union_team Kingdom_of_Germany German_literature Germany_men's_national_ice_hockey_team Same-sex_marriage_in_Germany
CSU
Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria Colorado_State_University Colorado_State_Rams California_State_University Csurgói_KK CS_Universitatea_Craiova Charles_Sturt_University Cleveland_State_Vikings Colorado_State_Rams_men's_basketball Connecticut_State_University_System 1999_Colorado_State_Rams_football_team Colorado_State_Rams_football Cambridge_University_Students'_Union CSU_Galați 2017_Colorado_State_Rams_football_team 2016_Colorado_State_Rams_football_team
CDU
Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany Unitary_Democratic_Coalition Christian_Democratic_Union_(East_Germany) United_Christian_Democrats C.D._Universidade_Agostinho_Neto_(basketball) CDU/CSU Christian_Democratic_Union_(Netherlands) List_of_Christian_democratic_parties CDU_Baden-Württemberg Christian_Democracy_(Italy) Charles_Darwin_University Christian_democracy
Seehofer
Seehofer
Alternative for Germany
Alternative_for_Germany
AfD
Alternative_for_Germany Active_Format_Description French_Development_Agency AFC_Dunstable Associated_Film_Distribution Andai_language Aldershot,_Farnham_and_District_Athletics_Club
AfD
Alternative_for_Germany Active_Format_Description French_Development_Agency AFC_Dunstable Associated_Film_Distribution Andai_language Aldershot,_Farnham_and_District_Athletics_Club
Germany
Germany Germany_national_football_team Nazi_Germany German_Empire Germany_women's_national_football_team Weimar_Republic German_Football_Association ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_in_Germany GfK_Entertainment_Charts Germany_national_youth_football_team A1_Team_Germany Germany_national_rugby_union_team Kingdom_of_Germany German_literature Germany_men's_national_ice_hockey_team Same-sex_marriage_in_Germany
Seehofer
Turkey
Turkey Turkey_national_football_team Turkey_(bird) Basketbol_Süper_Ligi Turkish_Football_Federation Turkey_as_food Ottoman_Empire Wild_turkey Turkey_national_basketball_team ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_in_Turkey Domestic_turkey Turkey_national_under-21_football_team Turkey_Fed_Cup_team Turkey_national_under-19_football_team Turkey_women's_national_football_team Turkey_women's_national_volleyball_team
Europe
Europe UEFA Europe_(band) UEFA_competitions European_Athletic_Association European_theatre_of_World_War_II European_Union Europe_(dinghy) European_Cricket_Council UEFA_Champions_League Senior_League_World_Series_(Europe–Africa_Region) Big_League_World_Series_(Europe–Africa_Region) Sailing_at_the_2004_Summer_Olympics_–_Europe Neolithic_Europe History_of_Europe Europe_(magazine)
AfD
Alternative_for_Germany Active_Format_Description French_Development_Agency AFC_Dunstable Associated_Film_Distribution Andai_language Aldershot,_Farnham_and_District_Athletics_Club
Germany
Germany Germany_national_football_team Nazi_Germany German_Empire Germany_women's_national_football_team Weimar_Republic German_Football_Association ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_in_Germany GfK_Entertainment_Charts Germany_national_youth_football_team A1_Team_Germany Germany_national_rugby_union_team Kingdom_of_Germany German_literature Germany_men's_national_ice_hockey_team Same-sex_marriage_in_Germany
German
2016
Balkan
Balkans Balkan_FK FK_Balkan_Skopje BC_Balkan Balkan_music Balkan_cuisine Balkan_Mountains Balkan_Region Balkan_(band) Balkan_dialects_of_Bulgarian Balkan_Wars FC_Balkan_Botevgrad Balkans_Campaign_(World_War_I) Balkan_mixed_forests Balkan_(newspaper) Yugoslav_Wars
AfD
Alternative_for_Germany Active_Format_Description French_Development_Agency AFC_Dunstable Associated_Film_Distribution Andai_language Aldershot,_Farnham_and_District_Athletics_Club
AfD
Alternative_for_Germany Active_Format_Description French_Development_Agency AFC_Dunstable Associated_Film_Distribution Andai_language Aldershot,_Farnham_and_District_Athletics_Club
Italy
Italy Italy_national_football_team Italy_national_rugby_union_team Kingdom_of_Italy Italian_Football_Federation Italy_national_rugby_league_team Italian_Campaign_(World_War_II) Italy_women's_national_football_team Lega_Basket_Serie_A Italian_Rugby_Federation A1_Team_Italy ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_in_Italy Italy_national_basketball_team Kingdom_of_Italy_(Holy_Roman_Empire) Italy_national_under-21_football_team Cinema_of_Italy
Germany
Germany Germany_national_football_team Nazi_Germany German_Empire Germany_women's_national_football_team Weimar_Republic German_Football_Association ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_in_Germany GfK_Entertainment_Charts Germany_national_youth_football_team A1_Team_Germany Germany_national_rugby_union_team Kingdom_of_Germany German_literature Germany_men's_national_ice_hockey_team Same-sex_marriage_in_Germany
Bertelsmann Foundation
Bertelsmann_Stiftung
November
Europe
Europe UEFA Europe_(band) UEFA_competitions European_Athletic_Association European_theatre_of_World_War_II European_Union Europe_(dinghy) European_Cricket_Council UEFA_Champions_League Senior_League_World_Series_(Europe–Africa_Region) Big_League_World_Series_(Europe–Africa_Region) Sailing_at_the_2004_Summer_Olympics_–_Europe Neolithic_Europe History_of_Europe Europe_(magazine)
AfD
Alternative_for_Germany Active_Format_Description French_Development_Agency AFC_Dunstable Associated_Film_Distribution Andai_language Aldershot,_Farnham_and_District_Athletics_Club
AfD
Alternative_for_Germany Active_Format_Description French_Development_Agency AFC_Dunstable Associated_Film_Distribution Andai_language Aldershot,_Farnham_and_District_Athletics_Club
Süddeutsche Zeitung
Süddeutsche_Zeitung
AfD
Alternative_for_Germany Active_Format_Description French_Development_Agency AFC_Dunstable Associated_Film_Distribution Andai_language Aldershot,_Farnham_and_District_Athletics_Club
September 2016
AfD
Alternative_for_Germany Active_Format_Description French_Development_Agency AFC_Dunstable Associated_Film_Distribution Andai_language Aldershot,_Farnham_and_District_Athletics_Club
Germany
Germany Germany_national_football_team Nazi_Germany German_Empire Germany_women's_national_football_team Weimar_Republic German_Football_Association ISU_Junior_Grand_Prix_in_Germany GfK_Entertainment_Charts Germany_national_youth_football_team A1_Team_Germany Germany_national_rugby_union_team Kingdom_of_Germany German_literature Germany_men's_national_ice_hockey_team Same-sex_marriage_in_Germany
AfD
Alternative_for_Germany Active_Format_Description French_Development_Agency AFC_Dunstable Associated_Film_Distribution Andai_language Aldershot,_Farnham_and_District_Athletics_Club
Angela Merkel
Angela_Merkel
Christian Democrats
Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::organization type::party
Europe
Europe
iptc::11000000 topic::none topic::politics type::entity type::igo type::location type::organization type::regio type::so
Christian Social Union
Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::organization type::party
Alternative for Germany
Alternative_for_Germany
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::organization type::party
Social Democratic
Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::organization type::party
Angela Merkel
Angela_Merkel
gender::female iptc::11000000 slot::keyword topic::politics type::entity type::head_of_gov type::person type::politician
Martin Schulz
Martin_Schulz
gender::male iptc::11000000 slot::keyword topic::politics type::entity type::person type::politician
Germany
Germany
slot::in slot::keyword topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Horst Seehofer
Horst_Seehofer
gender::male iptc::11000000 slot::head topic::politics type::entity type::person type::politician
rival
topic::none type::role type::value
candidate
topic::none type::role type::value
Chancellor
topic::none type::role type::value
Sunday
topic::none type::time type::value
Bild
Bild
topic::media type::entity type::media type::organization
Achilles heel
Achilles'_heel
meta::todo
Muslim
iptc::12000000 topic::none topic::religion type::other type::religion-x
2015
topic::none type::time type::value
Austria
Austria
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
German
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
Syria
Syria
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Nigeria
Nigeria
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Eritrea
Eritrea
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
North African
topic::none type::loc-x type::other
Libya
Libya
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Mediterranean
Mediterranean_Sea
topic::none type::entity type::location type::waterbody
Italy
Italy
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
2016
topic::none type::time type::value
EU
European_Union
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::igo type::organization type::so
Thursday
topic::none type::time type::value
September
topic::none type::time type::value
Middle East
Middle_East
topic::none type::entity type::location type::regio
Northern Africa
North_Africa
topic::none type::entity type::location type::regio
foreign minister
topic::none type::role type::value
Sebastian Kurz
Sebastian_Kurz
gender::male iptc::11000000 policy::exterior topic::politics type::entity type::minister type::person type::politician
Brenner Pass
Brenner_Pass
meta::redo topic::none type::entity type::location type::street
Bavarian
topic::none type::gpe1-x type::other
Bavaria Plan
meta::todo
chairman
topic::none type::role type::value
Welt
Die_Welt
topic::media type::entity type::media type::organization
Turkey
Turkey
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Balkan
Balkans
topic::none type::entity type::location type::regio
Bertelsmann Foundation
Bertelsmann_Stiftung
meta::todo topic::none type::entity type::organization
November
topic::none type::time type::value
Süddeutsche Zeitung
Süddeutsche_Zeitung
topic::media type::entity type::media type::organization
September 2016
topic::none type::time type::value
Islam
Bavaria