Is China seeking regime-change in North Korea?
The sudden reduction in aggressive rhetoric and actions by North Korea has led to suggestions that Pyongyang has realized it has pushed its only ally in the region to the brink of severing its friendship.
The announcement in Pyongyang on May 13 of the promotion of Jang Jong-nam to "minister of the People's Armed Forces" came out of the blue. Until recently, the little-known commander of an army corps in coastal Kangwon Province, Jang has replaced Kim Kyok-sik, a four-star general with a long track record of loyal service to the regime. The reasons for 70-year-old Kim's replacement are not clear - as with most of the political maneuvers in North Korea - but it may have been his loyalty that cost him his position in the politburo. Kim was widely seen as a hawk in the regime and is believed to have been in command of the operation to shell the South Korean island of Yeonpyeongdo in November 2010, an incident that killed four people, destroyed civilians' homes and infrastructure and dramatically worsened the already strained relationship between Pyongyang and Seoul. By sacrificing Kim, analysts believe, North Korea is signaling that it is backing away from the confrontational stance it adopted after the United Nations imposed new sanctions in the wake of the nation's third underground nuclear test in February. And there are other indicators that Pyongyang is seeking to return to the status quo. The North's troops have been permitted to step down from the highest state of preparedness for war that was initially ordered when South Korea and the US began a series of annual military exercises. Missiles withdrawn Similarly, two Musudan intermediate-range missiles that were identified as being on mobile launchers being operated in eastern areas of the country have apparently been ordered to return to base. In late April, there was concern that test-launches of the missiles would be a further escalation by Kim Jong-un's government and a message that it would not bow to international pressure to halt its nuclear and missile development programs. But the analysts believe the tokens of Pyongyang's goodwill have come too late. "For the North Korean leader, this is a very difficult time," Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor at Tokyo's Waseda University and an authority on North Korean affairs, told DW. "Timing is very important here and it is possible that China is moving to abandon Kim Jong-un. The atmosphere between the two nations is changing. China may have decided that it is time for a regime-change in the North, they will not permit the collapse of the country because they do not want chaos on their own borders." Further evidence that Beijing is slowly tightening the screw on its erstwhile ally comes as more state-run financial institutions sever their links with banks in North Korea. The latest institution to adhere to the government's orders to halt transactions across the border is the Bank of China, one of the four major banks in the country, which announced on May 7 that it would cease dealings with the Foreign Trade Bank of North Korea, which has been identified as being involved in Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs. Contingency plan in place Intelligence sources have passed on to DW information that Beijing has a contingency plan in place for when Kim Jong-un's control over the country crumbles. The reports confirm that China is indeed quietly encouraging regime change and is grooming Kim's brother, Kim Jong-nam to take over his role. At 42, Kim Jong-nam is the oldest son of Kim Jong-il, the dictator who ruled North Korea with an iron fist for 17 years until his sudden death in December 2011. Kim Jong-nam had been expected to assume the leadership after his father's death, but fell from favor spectacularly in 2001 when he was detained with two women and a boy aged 4 at Tokyo's Narita International Airport travelling on a forged Dominican Republic passport. He later admitted that he had wanted to visit Disneyland. He subsequently lived in Macau and Beijing, under the close watch of the Chinese authorities. The reports suggest that after Kim Jong-nam is installed in Pyongyang, his brother will be permitted to go into exile, probably in China. The tactic is not without its pitfalls, however, in part due to the efficiency of the campaign to deify their young leader as the future of the nation. Kim Jong-nam as 'new king' "China may be dreaming of appointing Kim Jong-nam as the new king - and he is more preferable to the West than Kim Jong Un - but the problem is that he is not known in North Korea," said Ken Kato, director of Tokyo-based Human Rights in Asia. "Many people in Japan know much about the North Korean 'Royal Family,' but this information is hidden in North Korea," he said. "Even residents of Pyongyang know very little about Kim Jong-nam." Yet the reports are gaining credence among North Korea-watchers. Jun Okumura, a political analyst with the Eurasia Group, told DW that North Korea withdrawing the Musudan missiles under pressure from Beijing is a positive development. "It's good to know that there is a red line that China is willing to enforce," he said. "This makes the achievement of a tolerable modus vivendi significantly more likely." If North Korea fails to stick to that script, Okumura agreed, "a post-dynasty, puppet regime comes across as plausible."
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May 13
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Hwasong-10
Beijing
Beijing China_Open_(tennis) 2008_Summer_Olympics Beijing_National_Stadium Beijing_women's_volleyball_team Beijing_Subway Government_of_China Beijing_Capital_International_Airport Beijing_Sinobo_Guoan_F.C. Beijing_railway_station Beijing_Ducks Beijing_Lions Roman_Catholic_Archdiocese_of_Beijing 2013_China_Open_(tennis) 2014_China_Open_(tennis) Beijing_dialect
China
China China_national_football_team Republic_of_China_(1912–1949) China_women's_national_football_team Qing_dynasty Chinese_Basketball_Association A1_Team_China Cinema_of_China China_men's_national_basketball_team History_of_China China_national_badminton_team Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_China Taiwan Chinese_Football_Association Porcelain China_national_baseball_team
North Korea
North_Korea North_Korea_national_football_team North_Korea_women's_national_football_team North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction North_Korea_women's_national_under-20_football_team North_Korea_women's_national_under-17_football_team North_Korea_national_under-20_football_team North_Korea_national_under-23_football_team North_Korea_men's_national_ice_hockey_team DPR_Korea_Football_Association Korean_People's_Navy Korean_People's_Army List_of_years_in_North_Korea Football_in_North_Korea North_Korea_men's_national_under-18_ice_hockey_team North_Korea_national_under-17_football_team
Okumura
Shigeo_Okumura
China
China
slot::keyword topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
North Korea
North_Korea
slot::keyword topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Jang Jong-nam
Jang_Jong-nam
gender::male iptc::11000000 policy::defense slot::keyword topic::politics type::entity type::minister type::person type::politician
Kim Jong Un
Kim_Jong-un
gender::male iptc::11000000 slot::keyword topic::politics type::entity type::head_of_state type::person type::politician
Jun Okumura
gender::male iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::person type::politics_per
Kim Kyok-sik
Kim_Kyok-sik
gender::male iptc::11000000 policy::defense topic::politics type::entity type::head_of_state type::minister type::person type::politician
Pyongyang
Pyongyang
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe2 type::location
May 13
topic::none type::time type::value
People's Armed Forces
Korean_People's_Army
iptc::16000000 topic::conflict type::army type::entity type::governmental_organisation type::organization
Kangwon Province
Kangwon_Province_(North_Korea)
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe1 type::location
South Korean
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
Yeonpyeongdo
Yeonpyeongdo
type::entity type::island type::location
November 2010
topic::none type::time type::value
Seoul
Seoul
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe2 type::location
United Nations
United_Nations
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::igo type::organization
February
topic::none type::time type::value
South Korea
South_Korea
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
US
United_States
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Musudan
Hwasong-10
iptc::16000000 topic::conflict type::entity type::military_equipment type::misc
April
topic::none type::time type::value
North Korean
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
Toshimitsu Shigemura
wikidata:Q11644778
gender::male iptc::05000000 topic::education type::entity type::person type::teacher
Tokyo
Tokyo
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe2 type::location
Waseda University
Waseda_University
iptc::05000000 topic::education type::education_org type::entity type::organization
DW
Deutsche_Welle
topic::media type::entity type::media type::organization
Beijing
Beijing
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe2 type::location
Bank of China
Bank_of_China
iptc::20000170 sector::20000274 topic::business type::company type::entity type::organization
May 7
topic::none type::time type::value
Foreign Trade Bank of North Korea
Foreign_Trade_Bank_of_the_Democratic_People's_Republic_of_Korea
iptc::20000170 sector::20000274 topic::business type::company type::entity type::organization
Kim Jong-nam
Kim_Jong-nam
gender::male iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::person type::politician
Kim Jong-il
Kim_Jong-il
gender::male iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::head_of_state type::person type::politician
December 2011
topic::none type::time type::value
2001
topic::none type::time type::value
Narita International Airport
Narita_International_Airport
iptc::20000170 topic::business type::business_facility type::entity type::facility type::location
Dominican Republic
Dominican_Republic
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Disneyland
Tokyo_Disneyland
iptc::20000170 topic::business type::business_facility type::entity type::facility type::location
Macau
Macau
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe1 type::location
Chinese
topic::none type::gpe0-x type::other
West
Western_world
topic::none type::entity type::location type::regio
Ken Kato
gender::male iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::person type::politics_per
Human Rights in Asia
Human_rights_in_Asia
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::ngo type::organization
Japan
Japan
topic::none type::entity type::gpe type::gpe0 type::location
Eurasia Group
Eurasia_Group
iptc::11000000 topic::politics type::entity type::organization type::policy_institute
Germany