a discrete-non-evolution model to forecast progress of covid-19 outbreak
a discrete-non-evolution model to forecast progress of covid-19 outbreak
we propose that the daily evolution of covid-19 can be modelled by the following discrete-time equations: (1) (2) (3) (4) where t means the day, t means the duration of asymptomatic (incubation time) and symptomatic infected phases, both herein assumed to be 14 days.", "we hope the present model can contribute to global efforts made to understand and control the covid-19 pandemic.", "therefore, as current (in case of covid-19) and future, yet unknown, infectious diseases will continue to impact us, the development of simple but efficient models to track pandemics evolution based on daily updated data may be valuable not only for covid-19 but also for potential future outbreaks to come."


































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