your odds of correctly guessing the outcome of a flipped coin are 1 in 2, but your odds of guessing correctly twice in a row are only 1 in 4 —
your odds of correctly guessing the outcome of a flipped coin are 1 in 2, but your odds of guessing correctly twice in a row are only 1 in 4 —
gambler's fallacy:12
since the first four tosses turn up heads, the probability that the next toss is a head is: pr ( a 5 | a 1 ∩ a 2 ∩ a 3 ∩ a 4 ) = pr ( a 5 ) = 1 2 {\displaystyle \pr \left(a_{5}|a_{1}\cap a_{2}\cap a_{3}\cap a_{4}\right)=\pr \left(a_{5}\right)={\frac {1}{2}}} .