Our projections present a range of possible outcomes, but all show significant reductions to 2050. Ultimately, this depends on how quickly zero emission technologies, fuels and efficiency measures are deployed, as well as the impacts of our policies to increase the numbers of journeys made by cycling and walking and on public transport. There are uncertainties on future travel behaviour from changes in how we work and travel, increased connectivity, better technology, and COVID-19. Part 1: Our path to net zero transport *Historic emissions are from published Her Majesty's Government (HMG) GHG statistics. Our projections are produced using a range of models, including the National Transport Model (road transport), and Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy (rail. and Aviation model, adjusted for decarbonising transport measures. The shipping baseline and projections are based on the latest analysis by the CCC (https://www.thecoc.org.uk/publication/sixth-carbon-budget/), which drew on research commissioned by DFT. Given the emerging nature of zero emission shipping fuels, the projections should be interpreted as possible scenarios for meeting the net zero goal that the government has announced for the UK maritime sector rather than estimates of the impact of specific policies. Baseline forecasts are not consistent with the 2019 BEIS Energy and Emission Projections (EEP), as these use different methodologies. Where feasible, uncertainty in projections reflects uncertainty on policy design, GDP, fuel prices, trip rates, and historic volatility in emissions. The range in the policy line declines as we move out to 2050, due to a higher proportion of zero emission vehicles. Transport emission projections exclude military aircraft and shipping.