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ONE of these years, a dashing bunch of outsiders is going to knock the World Cup right out of its orbit. One can always dream. But outsiders in soccer have a way of hitting the crossbar of life, somewhere around the quarterfinals or semifinals.
Based on sheer talent and experience, this looks like another World Cup for Brazil, the perennial champion, the once and future king. The amazing thing about Brazil's dominance -- 5 championships in 17 World Cups -- is that huge numbers of fans do not mope around bars and cafes and dens around the world, rooting for the Brazilians to lose, the way anti-Yankee fans do in American baseball, for example.
No, the Brazilians are loved and respected, and not only for the clusters of fans in their perpetual samba, sashaying around the host nation every four years -- and not only for the women in scant outfits who are the pulchritudinous equivalents of Ronaldo and Ronaldinho.
Once again, Brazil is a given in the 18th World Cup, which begins Friday and continues through July 9. So is Brazil's dogged South American pursuer, Argentina, not as world-pleasing and joyous as Brazil, perhaps, but loaded. Those two nations are the usual suspects, rounded up every four years, worth half a semifinal bracket for those who indulge in Final Four office pools.
That leaves another half of the semifinals. The World Cup has traditionally been dominated by the same small band of powers -- only 7 different winners in 17 Cups -- so the real fun and mischief usually occurs in the first round, when marginal teams terrify or even beat the careless or lackluster favorites. The last World Cup, in 2002, did produce two outsiders, Turkey and South Korea, who managed to reach the semifinals without ever giving the impression of being finalists or champions.
When physical Turkey beat energetic South Korea in the third-place game, the Turks insisted that South Korea share the victory lap, a gesture to the red-clad fans who had cheered on the home team during its gallant run. Both teams deserved their lap because it was likely to be a once-in-a-generation semifinal for each. Turkey didn't even qualify this time, and South Korea is probably going to have to settle for sapping the strength of its three first-round opponents.
The two other semifinalists are likely to come from Europe, in keeping with the long tradition of success by home-continent teams. Brazil remains the only non-European team to win a World Cup in Europe, having done so in Sweden in 1958. (Brazil also won in North America twice, in Mexico City in 1970 and in Pasadena, Calif., in 1994, and once in Asia, in Yokohama, Japan, in 2002. The samba seems to work in any time zone.)
With the World Cup in Europe this time around, Italy is the most logical candidate from that continent, except that its league is being investigated for possible scandals involving favoritism from referees, gambling by players and possible match-fixing. The Italian players could be unnerved by the prospect of Juventus and other powerhouse squads being dropped from Serie A next season. At least, that is the theory of some American fans (the United States plays Italy in its second match).
Italy usually has one stinker in the first round. But the glamour of the World Cup tends to revive demoralized or doubtful players, as it did for Paolo Rossi, the spark of the 1982 championship, who had been reinstated after being implicated in an earlier scandal. Rossi was just glad to be running around in the sunshine. This time, Italy could get its mind off its troubles by reaching the semifinals.
A number of prosperous European nations have reason to dream of a run something like France's in 1998, when everything came together in a home-based championship. I would have chosen England, until Wayne Rooney broke the fourth metatarsal of his right foot in late April. He is hopeful of coming back, but England may have lost its best chance already.
Maybe the Netherlands could get back to the glory of the 1970's. The Czechs had possibilities before injuries hit them recently, but they could still whack the Americans in the first round. There is talk of Sweden coming together at the right time. And then there is Spain, with all that soccer money, all that flair, but never enough grit or purpose to be a semifinalist. One of these years.
Then there is Africa. Sixteen years ago, when Cameroon beat Argentina and frightened England in the quarterfinals, there was anticipation for the future of that continent. Since then, Cameroon, Nigeria and Senegal have had glorious moments, but never enough to reach the semifinals, and this time none of them could even qualify.
Four of the qualifiers from Africa -- Angola, Togo, Ghana and Ivory Coast, with their outsider coaches and foreign-based stars -- have no experience at this level. Some of them may have their moments in the next few weeks, but none look like semifinalists.
What about the United States? The Yanks might have peaked with their 2-0 humiliation of Mexico in the Round of 16 four years ago, followed by an unlucky 1-0 loss to Germany. The ranking process of world soccer recently put the Americans fourth (they are now fifth). But when it was time for rankings to have some value, for the World Cup draw last December, the Yanks were cynically dropped out of the top eight. But that was probably accurate and surely served the purpose of guaranteeing them two tough opponents in the first round. They got three -- the Czech Republic, Italy and Ghana.
I see the United States possibly earning a tie with one of the European teams if the Czechs are hurt or if the Italians are distracted, and possibly beating Ghana, putting the Americans on the bubble for advancing to the Round of 16.
The recent warm-up matches told me that DaMarcus Beasley and Eddie Johnson had regressed and that the playmakers John O'Brien and Claudio Reyna were rickety. Landon Donovan, who chose not to stick it out at Bayer Leverkusen, is an American marketer's dream and has impressed Manager Bruce Arena with his growing versatility, but cannot be expected to carry the team.
The Americans' best hopes come from European-based old heads like Brian McBride, Eddie Lewis and Kasey Keller going chest-to-chest with Euro teams on their home continent. The Yanks may be semifinalists -- later in the century. Right now it's still Europe's role to challenge Argentina and the thumping heart of world soccer, Brazil.
Sports of The Times E-mail: geovec@nytimes.com