title: Early forecasts of the evolution of the COVID-19 outbreaks and quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of countering measures.

text: We discovered that the time evolution of the inverse fractional daily growth of new infections, N/dN, in the current outbreak of COVID-19 is accurately described by a universal function, namely the two-parameter Gumbel cumulative function, in all countries that we have investigated. While the two Gumbel parameters, as determined bit fits to the data, vary from country to country (and even within different regions of the same country), reflecting the diversity and efficacy of the adopted containment measures, the functional form of the evolution of N/dN appears to be universal. The result of the fit in a given region or country appears to be stable against variations of the selected time interval. This makes it possible to robustly estimate the two parameters from the data data even over relatively small time periods. In turn, this allows one to predict with large advance and well-controlled confidence levels, the time of the peak in the daily new infections, its magnitude and duration (hence the total infections), as well as the time when the daily new infections decrease to a pre-set value (e.g. less than about 2 new infections per day per million people), which can be very useful for planning the reopening of economic and social activities. We use this formalism to predict and compare these key features of the evolution of the COVID-19 disease in a number of countries and provide a quantitative assessment of the degree of success in in their efforts to countain the outbreak.


title: A Conceptual and Adaptable Approach to Hospital Preparedness for Acute Surge Events Due to Emerging Infectious Diseases

text: At the time this article was written, the World Health Organization had declared a global pandemic due to the novel coronavirus disease 2019, the first pandemic since 2009 H1N1 influenza A. Emerging respiratory pathogens are a common trigger of acute surge events—the extreme end of the healthcare capacity strain spectrum in which there is a dramatic increase in care demands and/or decreases in care resources that trigger deviations from normal care delivery processes, reliance on contingencies and external resources, and, in the most extreme cases, nonroutine decisions about resource allocation. This article provides as follows: 1) a conceptual introduction and approach to healthcare capacity strain including the etiologies of patient volume, patient acuity, special patient care demands, and resource reduction; 2) a framework for considering key resources during an acute surge event—the “four Ss” of preparedness: space (beds), staff (clinicians and operations), stuff (physical equipment), and system (coordination); and 3) an adaptable approach to and discussion of the most common domains that should be addressed during preparation for and response to acute surge events, with an eye toward combating novel respiratory viral pathogens.


title: Coronavirus cancels chemical events

text: he threat of the new coronavirus is disrupting the spring meeting season across the chemical enterprise IHS Markit has canceled its World Petrochemical Conference, scheduled for March 24–27 in New Orleans, and its CERAWeek oil and gas conference, set for March 9–13 in Houston The drug services trade show CPhI Japan has been postponed, and the American Physical Society called off its March meeting IHS says it decided on the cancellations after consulting with health officials and taking into account the company travel restrictions and border health checks that attendees would have to contend with “We wanted to provide as much notice as possible,” IHS says in a statement about the petrochemical conference That conference drew 1,500 attendees in San Antonio last year, and organizers were expecting 1,800 for the New Orleans gathering CERAWeek drew 5,500 last year IHS also canceled a transportation event in Long Beach, California, last week


title: Early detection of superspreaders by mass group pool testing can mitigate COVID-19 pandemic

text: Background Most of epidemiological models applied for COVID-19 do not consider heterogeneity in infectiousness and impact of superspreaders, despite the broad viral loading distributions amongst COVID-19 positive people (1-1 000 000 per mL). Also, mass group testing is not used regardless to existing shortage of tests. I propose new strategy for early detection of superspreaders with reasonable number of RT-PCR tests, which can dramatically mitigate development COVID-19 pandemic and even turn it endemic. Methods I used stochastic social-epidemiological SEIAR model, where S-suspected, E-exposed, I-infectious, A-admitted (confirmed COVID-19 positive, who are admitted to hospital or completely isolated), R-recovered. The model was applied to real COVID-19 dynamics in London, Moscow and New York City. Findings Viral loading data measured by RT-PCR were fitted by broad log-normal distribution, which governed high importance of superspreaders. The proposed full scale model of a metropolis shows that top 10% spreaders (100+ higher viral loading than median infector) transmit 45% of new cases. Rapid isolation of superspreaders leads to 4-8 fold mitigation of pandemic depending on applied quarantine strength and amount of currently infected people. High viral loading allows efficient group matrix pool testing of population focused on detection of the superspreaders requiring remarkably small amount of tests. Interpretation The model and new testing strategy may prevent thousand or millions COVID-19 deaths requiring just about 5000 daily RT-PCR test for big 12 million city such as Moscow. Though applied to COVID-19 pandemic the results are universal and can be used for other infectious heterogenous epidemics. Funding No funding


title: Survey offers clues for initiating buprenorphine in emergency settings

text: In interpreting the results of research, readers always should take note of the time period in which data was collected, given the typical lag between when studies are conducted and when results are released This is a key message from authors of a study published last week that showed minimal readiness among emergency physicians to initiate buprenorphine treatment in the emergency department (ED) The authors report that these results informed initiatives within surveyed physicians' academic medical center sites, which now have demonstrated rapid progress in implementing buprenorphine in the ED


title: Predictors of Mental Health during the early Covid-19 Pandemic in the US: role of economic concerns, health worries and social distancing

text: Objective: To assess mental health in the US adult population in the Covid-19 pandemic and explore the roles of economic concerns, health worries and social distancing in shaping mental health outcomes. Methods: We analyze online survey data from the "Understanding America Study" (UAS) that is representative of the US adult population and covers the period of March 10-31st 2020 (sample size: 6436). Results: About 29% (CI:27.4-.30.4%) of the US adult population reported some depression/anxiety symptoms over the study period, with symptoms deteriorating over the month of March. Worsening mental health was most strongly associated with concerns about the economic consequences of the pandemic, while concerns about the potential impact of the virus on respondents' own health and the practice of social distancing also predicted the presence of depression and anxiety symptoms, albeit less strongly. Conclusions: Our findings point towards a major mental health crisis unfolding simultaneously with the pandemic in the US. They also highlight the importance of economic countermeasures and social policy for mitigating the impact of Covid-19 on adult mental health in the US over and above an effective public health response.


title: Sanofi, BARDA team for coronavirus vaccine

text: Sanofi Pasteur is working with the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) to develop a vaccine against the novel coronavirus, known as severe acute respiratory syndrome-CoV-2, which as of Feb 20 had infected more than 75,000 people and killed more than 2,100 Sanofi will build on work on a vaccine against SARS, another coronavirus that circulated in the early 2000s In December 2019, BARDA awarded the firm a $226 million contract to expand manufacturing capacity for use in a potential flu pandemic Sanofi says the new vaccine will use the same technology


COVID-19 in Singapore: another story of success


title: Assessment of a Diagnostic Strategy Based on Chest Computed Tomography in Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 Pneumonia: an observational study

text: Objectives: To assess the relevance of a diagnostic strategy for COVID-19 based on chest computed tomography (CT) in patients with hospitalization criteria. Setting: Observational study with retrospective analysis in a French emergency department (ED). Participants and intervention: From March 3 to April 2, 2020, 385 adult patients presenting to the ED for suspected COVID-19 underwent an evaluation that included history, physical examination, blood tests, real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and chest CT. When the time-interval between chest CT and RT-PCR assays was longer than 7 days, patients were excluded from the study. Only patients with hospitalization criteria were included. Diagnosis accuracy was assessed using the sensitivity and specificity of RT-PCR. Outcomes: Sensitivity and specificity of RT-PCR, chest CT (also accompanied by lymphopenia) were measured and were also analyzed by subgroups of age and sex. Results: Among 377 included subjects, RT-PCR was positive in 36%, while chest CT was compatible with a COVID-19 diagnosis in 59%. In the population with positive RT-PCR, there were more men (55% vs 37%, p=0.015), a higher frequency of reticular and, or, interlobular septal thickening (53% vs 31%, p=0.02) as well as a higher frequency of bilateral lesion distribution (98% vs 86%, p=0.01) compared to the population with negative RT-PCR. The proportion of lymphopenia was higher in men vs women (47% vs 39%, p=0.03) and varies between patients >80 versus 50-80 and p<0.001). Using CT as reference, RT-PCR obtained a sensitivity of 61%, specificity of 93%. There was a significant difference between CT and RT-PCR diagnosis performance (p<0.001). When CT was accompanied by lymphopenia, sensitivity and specificity of RT-PCR were respectively 71% and 94%. CT abnormalities and lymphopenia provided diagnosis in 29% of patients with negative PCR. Conclusions: Chest CT had a superior yield than RT-PCR in COVID-19 hospitalized patients, especially when accompanied by lymphopenia.


title: Serial interval and generation interval for respectively the imported and local infectors estimated using reported contact-tracing data of COVID-19 in China

text: Backgrounds: The emerging virus, COVID-19, has caused a massive outbreak worldwide. Based on the publicly available contact-tracing data, we identified 337 transmission chains from 10 provinces in China and estimated the serial interval (SI) and generation interval (GI) of COVID-19 in China. Methods: Inspired by possibly different values of the time-varying reproduction number for the imported cases and the local cases in China, we divided all transmission events into three subsets: imported (the zeroth generation) infecting 1st-generation locals, 1st-generation locals infecting 2nd-generation locals, and others transmissions among 2+ generations. The corresponding SI (GI) is respectively denoted as $\mbox{SI}^{0}_{1}$ ($\mbox{GI}^{0}_{1}$), $\mbox{SI}^{1}_{2}$ ($\mbox{GI}^{1}_{2}$), and $\mbox{SI}^{2+}_{3+}$ ($\mbox{GI}^{2+}_{3+}$). A Bayesian approach with doubly interval-censored likelihood is employed to fit the lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distribution function of the SI and GI using the identified 337 transmission chains. Findings: It is found that the estimated $\mbox{SI}^{0}_{1}$ = 6.27 (95%CI : 5.62 - 6.98), $\mbox{SI}^{1}_{2}$ = 5.92 (95%CI : 5.27 - 6.66), $\mbox{SI}^{2+}_{3+}$ = 4.36 (95%CI : 3.65 - 5.20), and $\mbox{GI}^{0}_{1}$ = 8.15 (95%CI : 6.73 - 9.91), $\mbox{GI}^{1}_{2}$ = 5.26 (95%CI : 4.25 - 6.69), $\mbox{GI}^{2+}_{3+}$ = 3.85 (95%CI : 2.18 - 6.72), thus overall both SI and GI decrease when generation increases.


title: Expert consensus on the procedures of interventional diagnosis and treatment of tumor patients during the epidemic period of corona virus disease 2019/ 新型冠状病毒肺炎防疫期间肿瘤患者介入诊治流程专家共识

text: Since December, 2019, the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread rapidly from Wuhan, Hubei Province. In order to reduce and prevent cross-over infection during interventional diagnosis and treatment of tumor patients, the Interventional Oncology Branch of China Anti-Cancer Association organized experts to compile this corresponding expert consensus, focused on the key points for COVID-19 prevention, including management of outpatient, inpatient and interventional operating room during the epidemic period of COVID-19.


title: Early COVID-19 Interventions Failed to Replicate St. Louis vs. Philadelphia Outcomes in the United States

text: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has elicited an abrupt pause in the United States in multiple sectors of commerce and social activity. As the US faces this health crisis, the magnitude, and rigor of their initial public health response was unprecedented. As a response, the entire nation shutdown at the state-level for the duration of approximately one to three months. These public health interventions, however, were not arbitrarily decided, but rather, implemented as a result of evidence-based practices. These practices were a result of lessons learned during the 1918 influenza pandemic and the city-level non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) taken across the US. During the 1918 pandemic, two model cities, St. Louis, MO, and Philadelphia, PA, carried out two different approaches to address the spreading disease, which resulted in two distinctly different outcomes. Our group has evaluated the state-level public health response adopted by states across the US, with a focus on New York, California, Florida, and Texas, and compared the effectiveness of reducing the spread of COVID-19. Our assessments show that while the states mentioned above benefited from the implementations of early preventative measures, they inadequately replicated the desired outcomes observed in St. Louis during the 1918 crisis. Our study indicates that there are other factors, including health disparities that may influence the effectiveness of public health interventions applied. Identifying more specific health determinants may help implement targeted interventions aimed at preventing the spread of COVID-19 and improving health equity.


title: Airway expression of SARS-CoV-2 receptor, ACE2, and proteases, TMPRSS2 and furin, in severe asthma

text: Background. Patients with severe asthma may have a greater risk of dying from COVID-19 disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus. Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor and enzyme proteases, transmembrane protease, serine 2 (TMPRSS2) and furin are needed for the attachment and invasion of the virus into host cells. We determined whether their expression in the airways of severe asthma patients is increased. Method. We examined the microarray mRNA expression of ACE2, TMPRSS2 and furin in the sputum, bronchial brush and bronchial biopsies of participants in the European U-BIOPRED cohort. Results. ACE2 and furin sputum gene expression was significantly increased in severe non-smoking asthma compared to mild-moderate asthma and healthy volunteers. By contrast, TMPRSS2 expression in bronchial biopsy and bronchial brushings was increased in severe smoking and ex-smoking asthmatics, and so was furin expression in bronchial brushings. Several clinical parameters including male gender, oral steroid use and nasal polyps were positively associated with ACE2, TMPRSS2 and furin expression levels. There was a higher expression of ACE2 and furin in the sputum neutrophilic molecular phenotype with inflammasome activation compared to the eosinophilic Type2-high or paucigranulocytic phenotypes. The enrichment score of the IL-13-Type2 gene signature was positively correlated with ACE2, TMPRSS2 and furin levels. Conclusion. These key determinants of virus entry into the lungs may contribute to the poorer outcomes from COVID-19 disease in patients with severe asthma.


title: ‘We will have many body bags.’ WHO chief responds to Trump’s criticisms

text: The head of the World Health Organization today gave an impassioned but indirect rejoinder to recent comments from U S President Donald Trump criticizing WHO’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and suggesting he would try to cut its U S funding “Please quarantine politicizing COVID,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in response to a question from ScienceInsider about Trump’s comments “We will have many body bags in front of us if we don’t behave ”


title: Cross-talk between the airway epithelium and activated immune cells defines severity in COVID-19

text: The clinical course of COVID-19 is highly variable, however, underlying host factors and determinants of severe disease are still unknown. Based on single-cell transcriptomes of nasopharyngeal and bronchial samples from clinically well-characterized patients presenting with moderate and critical severities, we reveal the different types and states of airway epithelial cells that are vulnerable for SARS-CoV-2 infection. In COVID-19 patients, we observed a two- to threefold increase of cells expressing the SARS-CoV-2 entry receptor ACE2 within the airway epithelial cell compartment. ACE2 is upregulated in epithelial cells through Interferon signals by immune cells suggesting that the viral defense system may increase the number of potentially susceptible cells in the respiratory epithelium. Infected epithelial cells recruit and activate immune cells by chemokine signaling. Recruited T lymphocytes and inflammatory macrophages were hyperactivated and showed a strong interaction with epithelial cells. In critical patients, increased expression of CCL2, CCL3, CCL5, CXCL9, CXCL10, IL8, IL1B and TNF in macrophages was identified as a likely cause of a hyperinflammatory lung pathology. Moreover, we observed exacerbated epithelial cell death, likely leading to lung injury and respiratory failure in fatal cases. Our study provides novel insights into the pathophysiology of COVID-19 and suggests an immunomodulatory therapy along the CCL2, CCL3/CCR1 axis as promising option to prevent and treat critical course of COVID-19.


title: Real-Time Assembly Operation Recognition with Fog Computing and Transfer Learning for Human-Centered Intelligent Manufacturing

text: Abstract In a human-centered intelligent manufacturing system, every element is to assist the operator in achieving the optimal operational performance. The primary task of developing such a human-centered system is to accurately understand human behavior. In this paper, we propose a fog computing framework for assembly operation recognition, which brings computing power close to the data source in order to achieve real-time recognition. For data collection, the operator's activity is captured using visual cameras from different perspectives. For operation recognition, instead of directly building and training a deep learning model from scratch, which needs a huge amount of data, transfer learning is applied to transfer the learning abilities to our application. A worker assembly operation dataset is established, which at present contains 10 sequential operations in an assembly task of installing a desktop CNC machine. The developed transfer learning model is evaluated on this dataset and achieves a recognition accuracy of 95% in the testing experiments.


title: Preliminary evidence from a multicenter prospective observational study of the safety and efficacy of chloroquine for the treatment of COVID-19

text: Background Effective therapies are urgently needed for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Chloroquine has been proved to have antiviral effect against coronavirus in vitro. In this study, we aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of chloroquine with different doses in COVID-19. Method In this multicenter prospective observational study, we enrolled patients older than 18 years old with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection excluding critical cases from 12 hospitals in Guangdong and Hubei Provinces. Eligible patients received chloroquine phosphate 500mg, orally, once (half dose) or twice (full dose) daily. Patients treated with non-chloroquine therapy were included as historical controls. The primary endpoint is the time to undetectable viral RNA. Secondary outcomes include the proportion of patients with undetectable viral RNA by day 10 and 14, hospitalization time, duration of fever, and adverse events. Results A total of 197 patients completed chloroquine treatment, and 176 patients were included as historical controls. The median time to achieve an undetectable viral RNA was shorter in chloroquine than in non-chloroquine (absolute difference in medians -6.0 days; 95% CI -6.0 to -4.0). The duration of fever is shorter in chloroquine (geometric mean ratio 0.6; 95% CI 0.5 to 0.8). No serious adverse events were observed in the chloroquine group. Patients treated with half dose experienced lower rate of adverse events than with full dose. Conclusions Although randomised trials are needed for further evaluation, this study provides evidence for safety and efficacy of chloroquine in COVID-19 and suggests that chloroquine can be a cost-effective therapy for combating the COVID-19 pandemic.


title: Excess deaths in people with cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic.

text: Background: Cardiovascular diseases(CVD) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection(COVID-19), but there are concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both direct, through infection, and indirect, through changes in healthcare. Methods: We used population-based electronic health records from 3,862,012 individuals in England to estimate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality risk(direct effect) for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated: (i)pre-COVID-19 risk by age, sex and comorbidities, (ii)estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and (iii)estimated relative impact of COVID-19 on mortality(relative risk, RR: 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0). For indirect effects, we analysed weekly mortality and emergency department data for England/Wales and monthly hospital data from England(n=2), China(n=5) and Italy(n=1) for CVD referral, diagnosis and treatment until 1 May 2020. Findings: CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy and England during the pandemic. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown, and is still reduced in Italy and England. Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous(peak RR 1.4). For total CVD(incident and prevalent), at 10% population COVID-19 rate, we estimated direct impact of 31,205 and 62,410 excess deaths in England at RR 1.5 and 2.0 respectively, and indirect effect of 49932 to 99865 excess deaths. Interpretation: Supply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.


In Focus


title: Effects of Chemically assisted Magnetic Abrasive Finishing Process Parameters on Material Removal of Inconel 625 tubes

text: Abstract With technological developments in manufacturing fields, many advanced materials and alloys have been introduced to fulfill industrial requirements. One of such type of advanced materials, Inconel 625 possesses superior materialistic properties and finds number of industrial applications in Aerospace, Marine, Petro-chemical and Solar power stations etc. However, machining and finishing of Inconel 625 components are still remain difficult tasks to deals with. A recently developed finishing process: Magnetic Abrasive Finishing (MAF) process has been experimented to finish Inconel 625 surfaces but this process is not much effective to finish and machine Inconel 625 work surfaces. In present work, Chemically assisted Magnetic Abrasive Finishing (CMAF) process has been experimented for simultaneous internal and external surface finishing of Inconel 625 tubes. An indigenous magnetic tool has been developed using Nd-Fe-B permanent magnets. Experiments have been designed by using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). Effect of five input process parameters i.e. processing time, surface rotational speed, weight percentage (Wt %age) of abrasives, chemical concentration and abrasive size on the material removal (MR) has been analyzed. Experimental Results proves that selected input process parameters have significant effect on material removal (MR). Material is uniformly removed from both internal and external surface of Inconel 625 tubes. Surface microstructure has been analyzed using scanning electron microscopy.


title: 2019 Novel Coronavirus can be detected in urine, blood, anal swabs and oropharyngeal swabs samples

text: We tested samples collected from nine patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The virus was found in urine, blood, anal swabs and oropharyngeal swabs. It is the first time for SARS-CoV-2 found in urine, though no urinary irritation was found.


title: Transmission dynamics and control strategies of covid-19 in wuhan, china

text: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, SARS-COV-2, was identified among patients in Wuhan, China. Two strict control measures, i.e., putting Wuhan on lockdown and taking strict quarantine rule, were carried out to contain the spread of COVID-19. Based on the different control measures, we divided the transmission process of COVID-19 into three stages. An SEIHR model was established to describe the transmission dynamics and was applied to fit the published data on the confirmed cases of Wuhan city from December 31, 2019 to March 25, 2020 to deduce the time when the first patient with COVID-19 appeared. The basic reproduction number was estimated in the first stage to demonstrate the number of secondary infectious cases generated by an average infectious case in the absence of policy intervention. The effective reproduction numbers in second and third stages were estimated to evaluate the effects of the two strict control measures. In addition, sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number according to model parameters was executed to demonstrate the effect of the control measures for containing the spread of COVID-19. Finally, the numerical calculation method was applied to investigate the influence of the different control measures on the spread of COVID-19. The results indicated that following the strict quarantine rule was very effective, and reducing the effective contact rates and improving the diagnosis rate were crucial in reducing the effective reproduction number, and taking control measures as soon as possible can effectively contain a larger outbreak of COVID-19. But a bigger challenge for us to contain the spread of COVID-19 was the transmission from the asymptomatic carriers, which required to raising the public awareness of self-protection and keeping a good physical protection.


title: Estimation Of State Variables And Model Parameters For The Evolution Of COVID-19 In The City Of Rio de Janeiro

text: Evolution model is based on that used by Hernandez et al., which considers the following groups: Susceptible, Incubating, Asymptomatic, Symptomatic, Hospitalized, Recovered and Accumulated deaths. Evolution model considers the possibility of infections from asymptomatic, symptomatic and hospitalized individuals. Evolution model considers the possibility that individuals who have recovered from the disease become symptomatic again. Observation model accounts for underreport of cases and deaths. Observation model accounts for delays in reporting cases and deaths. Model parameters were initially estimated with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, by using the data of the city of Rio de Janeiro from February 28, 2020 to April 29, 2020. These estimations were used as initial input values for the solution of the state estimation problem for the city of Rio de Janeiro. Algorithm of Liu & West for the Particle Filter was used for the solution of the state estimation problem because it allows the simultaneous estimation of state variables and model parameters. State estimation problem was solved with the data of the city of Rio de Janeiro, from February 28, 2020 to May 05, 2020. Monte Carlo simulations were run for 20 future days, considering uncertainties in the model parameters and state variables. Initial conditions were given by the state variables and corresponding distributions estimated with the particle filter on May 05, 2020. Distributions of the model parameters were also given by the estimations obtained for this date. Data of the city of Rio de Janeiro, from May 06, 2020 to May 15, 2020, were used for the validation of the solution of the state estimation problem. The present model, with the parameters obtained with the Particle Filter, accurately fits the number of reported cases and the number of reported deaths, for 10 days ahead of the period used for the solution of the state estimation problem. The Ratio of Infected Individuals per Reported Cases was around 15 on May 05, 2020. The Indexes of Under-Reported Cases and Deaths were around 12 and 2, respectively, on May 05, 2020. The Effective Reproduction Number was around 1.6 on February 28, 2020 and dropped to around 0.9 on May 05, 2020. However, uncertainties related to this parameter are large and the effective reproduction number is between 0.3 and 1.5, at the 95% credibility level. The particle filter must be used to periodically update the estimation of state variables and model parameters, so that future predictions can be made. Day 0 is February 28, 2020.


COVID-19’s Spread Across the World


title: Evaluation of Enzyme-Linked Immunoassay and Colloidal Gold- Immunochromatographic Assay Kit for Detection of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) Causing an Outbreak of Pneumonia (COVID-19)

text: Abstract BACKGROUND: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infected pneumonia (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan, China. Travel-associated cases have also been reported in other countries. The number of cases has increased rapidly but laboratory diagnosis is limited. METHODS: We collect two groups of cases diagnosed with COVID-19 for experiments. One group collected 63 samples for Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) IgG and IgM antibodies. The other group collected 91 plasma samples for colloidal gold-immunochromatographic assay (GICA). RESULTS: The sensitivity of the combined ELISA IgM and ELISA IgG detection was 55/63 ( 87.3%), The sensitivity of the combined GICA IgM and GICA IgG detection was 75/91 ( 82.4%), Both methods are negative for healthy controls, specificity of 100% .There is no significant difference between the sensitivity of between ELISA and GICA (IgM+ IgG). CONCLUSIONS: ELISA and GICA for specific IgM and IgG antibodies are conventional serological assays, they are simple, fast, and safe, the results can be used for clinical reference, and the huge clinical diagnosis and treatment pressure can be greatly relieved.


title: The Estimated Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers during the Ongoing Pandemic of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 12 Selected Countries outside China

text: Background: How can we anticipate the progression of the ongoing pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)? As a measure of transmissibility, we aimed to estimate concurrently the time-varying reproduction number, R0(t), over time during the COVID-19 pandemic for each of the following 12 heavily-attacked countries: Singapore, South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Belgium, United Kingdom, the United States of America, and South Africa. Methods: We downloaded the publicly available COVID-19 pandemic data from the WHO COVID-19 Dashboard website (https://covid19.who.int/) for the duration of January 11, 2020 and May 1, 2020. Then, we specified two plausible distributions of serial interval to apply the novel estimation method implemented in the incidence and EpiEstim packages to the data of daily new confirmed cases for robustly estimating R0(t) in the R software. Results: We plotted the epidemic curves of daily new confirmed cases for the 12 selected countries. A clear peak of the epidemic curve appeared in 10 of the 12 selected countries at various time points, and then the epidemic curve declined gradually. However, the United States of America and South Africa happened to have two or more peaks and their epidemic curves either reached a plateau or still climbed up. Almost all curves of the estimated R0(t) monotonically went down to be less than or close to 1.0 up to April 30, 2020 except Singapore, South Korea, Japan, Iran, and South Africa, of which the curves surprisingly went up and down at various time periods during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, the United States of America and South Africa were the two countries with the approximate R0(t) [≥] 1.0 at the end of April, and thus they were now facing the harshest battles against the coronavirus among the 12 selected countries. By contrast, Spain, Germany, and France with smaller values of the estimated R0(t) were relatively better than the other 9 countries. Conclusion: Seeing the estimated R0(t) going downhill speedily is more informative than looking for the drops in the daily number of new confirmed cases during an ongoing epidemic of infectious disease. We urge public health authorities and scientists to estimate R0(t) routinely during an epidemic of infectious disease and to report R0(t) daily to the public until the end of the epidemic.


title: Identification and Analysis of Shared Risk Factors in Sepsis and High Mortality Risk COVID-19 Patients

text: BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel coronavirus strain disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease is highly transmissible and severe disease including viral sepsis has been reported in up to 16% of hospitalized cases. The admission characteristics associated with increased odds of hospital mortality among confirmed cases of COVID-19 include severe hypoxia, low platelet count, elevated bilirubin, hypoalbuminemia and reduced glomerular filtration rate. These symptoms correlate highly with severe sepsis cases. The diseases also share similar co-morbidity risks including dementia, type 2 diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, hypertension and chronic renal failure. Sepsis has been observed in up to 59% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. It is highly desirable to identify risk factors and novel therapy/drug repurposing avenues for late-stage severe COVID-19 patients. This would enable better protection of at-risk populations and clinical stratification of COVID-19 patients according to their risk for developing life threatening disease. METHODS As there is currently insufficient data available for confirmed COVID-19 patients correlating their genomic profile, disease severity and outcome, co-morbidities and treatments as well as epidemiological risk factors (such as ethnicity, blood group, smoking, BMI etc.), a direct study of the impact of host genomics on disease severity and outcomes is not yet possible. We therefore ran a study on the UK Biobank sepsis cohort as a surrogate to identify sepsis associated signatures and genes, and correlated these with COVID-19 patients. Sepsis is itself a life-threatening inflammatory health condition with a mortality rate of approximately 20%. Like the initial studies for COVID-19 patients, standard genome wide association studies (GWAS) have previously failed to identify more than a handful of genetic variants that predispose individuals to developing sepsis. RESULTS We used a combinatorial association approach to analyze a sepsis population derived from UK Biobank. We identified 70 sepsis risk-associated genes, which provide insights into the disease mechanisms underlying sepsis pathogenesis. Many of these targets can be grouped by common mechanisms of action such as endothelial cell dysfunction, PI3K/mTOR pathway signaling, immune response regulation, aberrant GABA and neurogenic signaling. CONCLUSION This study has identified 70 sepsis related genes, many of them for the first time, that can reasonably be considered to be potentially relevant to severe COVID-19 patients. We have further identified 59 drug repurposing candidates for 13 of these targets that can be used for the development of novel therapeutic strategies to increase the survival rate of patients who develop sepsis and potentially severe COVID-19.


title: Public attention and policy responses to COVID-19 pandemic

text: Early non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) significantly reduced the death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, there are vast differences in how quickly governments implemented NPIs. In this paper, we analyze the role of public attention, measured as the share of daily Google searches in a country related to COVID-19, in the timing of the NPI responses. We first show that public attention depends strongly on whether there are cases in own country. We then show that countries with high levels of public attention are more likely to implement non-pharmaceutical interventions, even after controlling for the number of cases and deaths. Finally, we show that the extent to which a government responds to public attention is highly dependent on the country's institutional quality. The positive effect of public attention on policy implementation is driven entirely by countries with good institutions.


title: An Opportune and Relevant Design for Studying the Health Trajectories of Healthcare Workers

text: We describe the rationale, design, and implementation of baseline enrollment for a longitudinal, observational cohort study of healthcare workers. The importance of workplace as a characteristic of interest in population-based studies has become increasingly apparent over time. Most adults spend a majority of their waking hours living in their workplace environment, which serves as a source of unique as well as shared exposures, stressors, and related determinants of health. A rapidly expanding segment of the working population includes those individuals who work in the fields of healthcare. The healthcare workforce, at large, represents an increasingly diverse subset of the population with broad exposures; some exposures are specific to the workplace and others are common to persons living in the community. Importantly, healthcare workers tend to have general interest and willingness to participate in research, in addition to stable employment and easy access to on-site clinical research assessment locations. Accordingly, from a population of individuals working at a large medical delivery network, we enrolled over 6300 healthcare workers into a cohort study involving survey data collection on medical history, work environment, and family and living situation; this information was linked to participant electronic health record data and collected biospecimens.


title: Forecast and Control of Epidemics in a Globalized World

text: The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which describes the worldwide spreading of infectious diseases and demonstrate that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible. It combines a stochastic local infection dynamics between individuals with stochastic transport in a worldwide network which takes into account the national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the SARS outbreak are in suprisingly good agreement with published case reports. We show that the high degree of predictability is caused by the strong heterogeneity of the network. Our model can be used to predict the worldwide spreading of future infectious diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. The performance of different control strategies is analyzed and our simulations show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibit the global spreading of epidemics.


title: Time-series analyses of directional sequence changes in SARS-CoV-2 genomes and an efficient search method for advantageous mutations for growth in human cells

text: We first conducted time-series analysis of mono- and dinucleotide composition for over 10,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, as well as over 1500 Zaire ebolavirus genomes, and found clear time-series changes in the compositions on a monthly basis, which should reflect viral adaptations for efficient growth in human cells. We next developed a sequence alignment free method that extensively searches for advantageous mutations and rank them in an increase level for their intrapopulation frequency. Time-series analysis of occurrences of oligonucleotides of diverse lengths for SARS-CoV-2 genomes revealed seven distinctive mutations that rapidly expanded their intrapopulation frequency and are thought to be candidates of advantageous mutations for the efficient growth in human cells.


title: SARS-CoV-2 proteases cleave IRF3 and critical modulators of inflammatory pathways (NLRP12 and TAB1): implications for disease presentation across species and the search for reservoir hosts

text: The genome of SARS-CoV-2 (SARS2) encodes for two viral proteases (NSP3/ papain-like protease and NSP5/ 3C-like protease or major protease) that are responsible for cleaving viral polyproteins for successful replication. NSP3 and NSP5 of SARS-CoV (SARS1) are known interferon antagonists. Here, we examined whether the protease function of SARS2 NSP3 and NSP5 target proteins involved in the host innate immune response. We designed a fluorescent based cleavage assay to rapidly screen the protease activity of NSP3 and NSP5 on a library of 71 human innate immune proteins (HIIPs), covering most pathways involved in human innate immunity. By expressing each of these HIIPs with a genetically encoded fluorophore in a cell-free system and titrating in the recombinant protease domain of NSP3 or NSP5, we could readily detect cleavage of cognate HIIPs on SDS-page gels. We identified 3 proteins that were specifically and selectively cleaved by NSP3 or NSP5: IRF-3, and NLRP12 and TAB1, respectively. Direct cleavage of IRF3 by NSP3 could explain the blunted Type- I IFN response seen during SARS-CoV-2 infections while NSP5 mediated cleavage of NLRP12 and TAB1 point to a molecular mechanism for enhanced production of IL-6 and inflammatory response observed in COVID-19 patients. Surprisingly, both NLRP12 and TAB1 have each two distinct cleavage sites. We demonstrate that in mice, the second cleavage site of NLRP12 is absent. We pushed this comparative alignment of IRF-3 and NLRP12 homologs and show that the lack or presence of cognate cleavage motifs in IRF-3 and NLRP12 could contribute to the presentation of disease in cats and tigers, for example. Our findings provide an explanatory framework for in-depth studies into the pathophysiology of COVID-19 and should facilitate the search or development of more effective animal models for severe COVID-19. Finally, we discovered that one particular species of bats, David’s Myotis, possesses the five cleavage sites found in humans for NLRP12, TAB1 and IRF3. These bats are endemic from the Hubei province in China and we discuss its potential role as reservoir for the evolution of SARS1 and SASR2.


title: Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the COVID-19 pandemic

text: Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic probing different scenarios of climate-dependence based on known coronavirus biology. We find that while variations in humidity may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 climate may drive only modest changes to pandemic size and duration. Our results suggest that, in the absence of effective control measures, significant cases in the coming months are likely to occur in more humid (warmer) climates, irrespective of the climate-dependence of transmission and that summer temperatures will not substantially limit pandemic growth.


Simultaneous occurrence of COVID-19 and dengue: what do the data show?


title: Treatment with ACE-inhibitors is associated with less severe disease with SARS-Covid-19 infection in a multi-site UK acute Hospital Trust

text: Abstract: Background: The SARS-Cov2 virus binds to the ACE2 receptor for cell entry. It has been suggested that ACE-inhibitors, which are commonly used in patients with hypertension or diabetes and which raise ACE2 levels, may increase the risk of severe COVID-19 infection. Methods: We evaluated this hypothesis in an early cohort of 205 acute inpatients with COVID-19 at King's College Hospital and Princess Royal University Hospital, London, UK with the primary endpoint being death or transfer to a critical care unit for organ support within 7-days of symptom onset. Findings: 53 patients out of 205 patients reached the primary endpoint. Contrary to the hypothesis, treatment with ACE-inhibitors was associated with a reduced risk of rapidly deteriorating severe disease. There was a lower rate of death or transfer to a critical care unit within 7 days in patients on an ACE-inhibitor OR 0.29 (CI 0.10-0.75, p<0.01), adjusting for age, gender, comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, ischaemic heart disease and heart failure). Interpretation: Although a small sample size, we do not see evidence for ACE-inhibitors increasing the short-term severity of COVID-19 disease and patients on treatment with ACE-inhibitors should continue these drugs during their COVID-19 illness. A potential beneficial effect needs to be explored as more data becomes available.


title: A new emerging zoonotic virus of concern: The 2019 novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)/ Un nuevo virus zoonótico emergente de preocupación: El Coronavirus novel 2019

text: We review here the origin, outbreak characteristics and main epidemiological features of the novel Coronavirus (2019nCoV) responsible of a new coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Rapid global health authorities’ responses are now in course and international scientific collaboration is urgently need. Previous outbreaks experiences with similar viral agents have increased the capacity to containment and control of these recurrent health menaces.


title: Dynamics of B-cell repertoires and emergence of cross-reactive responses in COVID-19 patients with different disease severity

text: COVID-19 patients show varying severity of the disease ranging from asymptomatic to requiring intensive care. Although a number of monoclonal antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 have been identified, we still lack an understanding of the overall landscape of B-cell receptor (BCR) repertoires in COVID-19 patients. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing of BCR repertoires collected over multiple time points during an infection to characterize statistical and dynamical signatures of the B-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 in 19 patients with different disease severities. Based on principled statistical approaches, we determined differential sequence features of BCRs associated with different disease severity. We identified 34 significantly expanded rare clonal lineages shared among patients as candidates for a specific response to SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, we identified natural emergence of a BCR with cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in a number of patients. Overall, our results provide important insights for development of rational therapies and vaccines against COVID-19.


title: Ag nanoparticles-based antimicrobial polycotton fabrics to prevent the transmission and spread of SARS-CoV-2

text: Pathogens (bacteria, fungus and virus) are becoming a potential threat to the health of human beings and environment worldwide. They widely exist in the environment, with characteristics of variety, spreading quickly and easily causing adverse reactions. In this work, an Ag-based material is used to be incorporated and functionalized in polycotton fabrics using pad-dry-cure method. This composite proved to be effective for inhibiting the SARS-CoV-2 virus, decreasing the number of replicates in 99.99% after an incubation period of 2 minutes. In addition, it caused 99.99% inhibition of the pathogens S. aureus, E. coli and C. albicans, preventing cross-infections and does not cause allergies or photoirritation processes, demonstrating the safety of its use.


Recommendations for intensive care therapy of patients with COVID-19/ Empfehlungen zur intensivmedizinischen Therapie von Patienten mit COVID-19


title: A poor-man's approach to the effective reproduction number: the COVID-19 case

text: It is shown that estimates of the effective reproduction number Rt for COVID-19 using standard packages such as EPIESTIM can be reproduced very accurately using the expression Rt = c(t) /c(t + τ) , where c(t) is the incidence at time t and τ the mean value of the series interval


title: Mental Health Status of the General Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-sectional National Survey in Japan

text: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic may have detrimental mental health consequences. However, as yet, there is limited understanding of its impact on the mental health of the general population. The aim of this study is to examine the mental health of the Japanese general population by conducting the first systematic survey during the pandemic (N=1,000), with a particular focus on identifying the most vulnerable groups. Results from logistic regression analyses showed that the mental health of young and middle-aged individuals was significantly worse than that of older individuals during the pandemic. There was also some indication that individuals who were not currently working were significantly more likely to report a high level of anxiety and depressive symptoms. Part-time and temporary contract-based workers were also more likely to suffer from anxiety disorder. Our results highlight that monitoring the mental health of younger and economically vulnerable individuals may be especially important. In addition, they also indicate that population mental health might not only be affected by the direct health consequences of COVID-19, but also by the economic ramifications of the pandemic.


Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on the Objective and Analysis of Oncology Clinical Trials – Application of the Estimand Framework


title: A pandemic at the Tunisian scale. Mathematical modelling of reported and unreported COVID-19 infected cases

text: Starting from the city of Wuhan in China in late December 2019, the pandemic quickly spread to the rest of the world along the main intercontinental air routes. At the time of writing this article, there are officially about five million infections and more than 300 000 deaths. Statistics vary widely from country to country, revealing significant differences in anticipation and management of the crisis. We propose to examine the COVID-19 epidemic in Tunisia through mathematical models, which aim to determine the actual number of infected cases and to predict the course of the epidemic. As of May 11, 2020, there are officially 1032 COVID-19 infected cases in Tunisia. 45 people have died. Using a mathematical model based on the number of reported infected cases, the number of deaths, and the effect of the 18-day delay between infection and death, this study estimates the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Tunisia as 2555 cases. This paper analyses the evolution of the epidemic in Tunisia using population dynamics with an SEIR model combining susceptible cases S(t), asymptomatic infected cases A(t), reported infected cases V (t), and unreported infected cases U(t). This work measures the basic reproduction number R0, which is the average number of people infected by a COVID-19 infected person. The model predicts an R0 = 2.73. Strict containment measures have led to a significant reduction in the reproduction rate. Contact tracing and respect for isolation have an impact: at the current time, we compute that Tunisia has an Rt = 0.42 (95% CI 0.14-0.70). These values depend on physical separation and can vary over time depending on the management of suspicious cases. Their objective estimation and the study of their evolution are however necessary to understand the pandemic and to reduce their unintended damage (due to an absence of symptoms, or the confusion of certain symptoms with less contagious diseases, or unavailable or unreliable tests).


title: Unravelling the debate on heme effects in COVID-19 infections

text: The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak was recently declared a worldwide pandemic. Infection triggers the respiratory tract disease COVID-19, which is accompanied by serious changes of clinical biomarkers such as hemoglobin and interleukins. The same parameters are altered during hemolysis, which is characterized by an increase in labile heme. We present two approaches that aim at analyzing a potential link between available heme and COVID-19 pathogenesis. Four COVID-19 related proteins, i.e. the host cell proteins ACE2 and TMPRSS2 as well as the viral protein 7a and S protein, were identified as potential heme binders. We also performed a detailed analysis of the common pathways induced by heme and SARS-CoV-2 by superimposition of knowledge graphs covering heme biology and COVID-19 pathophysiology. Herein, focus was laid on inflammatory pathways, and distinct biomarkers as the linking elements. Finally, the results substantially improve our understanding of COVID-19 infections and disease progression of patients with different clinical backgrounds and expand the diagnostic and treatment options.


COVID-19 and planning history: a space oddity


title: Dose-dependent enhancement of motion direction discrimination with transcranial magnetic stimulation of visual cortex

text: Despite the widespread use of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) in research and clinical care, the underlying mechanisms-of-actions that mediate modulatory effects remain poorly understood. To fill this gap, we studied dose–response functions of TMS for modulation of visual processing. Our approach combined electroencephalography (EEG) with application of single pulse TMS to visual cortex as participants performed a motion perception task. During participants’ first visit, motion coherence thresholds, 64-channel visual evoked potentials (VEPs), and TMS resting motor thresholds (RMT) were measured. In second and third visits, single pulse TMS was delivered 30 ms before the onset of motion or at the onset latency of the N2 VEP component derived from the first session. TMS was delivered at 0%, 80%, 100%, or 120% of RMT over the site of N2 peak activity, or at 120% over vertex. Behavioral results demonstrated a significant main effect of TMS timing on accuracy, with better performance when TMS was applied at N2-Onset timing versus Pre-Onset, as well as a significant interaction, indicating that 80% intensity produced higher accuracy than other conditions. TMS effects on VEPs showed reduced amplitudes in the 80% Pre-Onset condition, an increase for the 120% N2-Onset condition, and monotonic amplitude scaling with stimulation intensity. The N2 component was not affected by TMS. These findings reveal dose–response relationships between intensity and timing of TMS on visual perception and electrophysiological brain activity, generally indicating greater facilitation at stimulation intensities below RMT.


title: Significantly longer Covid-19 incubation times for the elderly, from a case study of 136 patients throughout China

text: Objective: To infer Covid19 incubation time distribution from a large sample. Method: Based on individual case data published online by 21 cities of China, we investigated a total of 136 COVID19 patients who traveled to Hubei from 21 cities of China between January 5 and January 31, 2020, remained there for 48 hours or less, and returned to these cities with onset of symptoms between January 10 and February 6, 2020. Among these patients, 110 were found to be aged 15 to 64, 22 aged 65 to 86, and 4 aged under 15. Findings: The differential incubation time histogram of the two age groups 15 to 64 and 65 to 86 are adequately fitted by the log normal model. For the 15 to 64 age group, the median incubation time of 7.00+1.10 - 0.9 days (uncertainties are 95 % CL) is broadly consistent with previous literature. For the 65-86 age group, the median is 10.9+2.7 - 2.0 days is statistically significantly longer. Moreover, for this group, the 95 % confidence contour indicates the data cannot constrain the upper bound of the log normal parameters μ, σ by failing to close there; this is because the sample has a maximum incubation time of 17 days, beyond which we ran out of data even though the histogram has not yet peaked. Thus there is the potential of a much longer incubation time for the 65 to 86 age group than 10 to 14 days. Only a much larger sample can settle this.


title: A Glimpse of University Students’ Family Life Amidst the COVID-19 Virus

text: This essay uses a small-scale set of data derived from university students whom I can contact during this period. The variables were particularly pertinent to their family life amidst the COVID-19 virus, including, but not limited to, learning experience with online courses, evaluation on the Government measures against the COVID-19 virus spread, perception of the influence of the pestilence on their own thoughts and behaviors. A simple calculation of frequency was adopted to present the situation related. Results showed a unique experience of the students in the situation of the COVID-19 virus, and reflection on those results was available.


title: Warmer weather and global trends in the coronavirus COVID-19

text: Predicting COVID-19 epidemic development in the upcoming warm season has attracted much attention in the hope of providing helps to fight the epidemic. It requires weather (environmental) factors to be included in prediction models, but there are few models to achieve it successfully. In this study, we proposed a new concept of environmental infection rate (RE), based on floating time of respiratory droplets in the air and inactivation rate of virus to solve the problem. More than half of the particles in the droplets can float in the atmosphere for 1-2 hours. The prediction results showed that high RE values (>3.5) are scattered around 30N in winter (Dec.-Feb.). As the weather warms, its distribution area expands and extends to higher latitudes of northern hemisphere, reaching its maximum in April, and then shrinking northward. These indicated that the spread of COVID-19 in most parts of the northern hemisphere is expected to decline after Apr., but the risks in high latitudes will remain high in May. In the south of southern hemisphere, the RE values tend to subside from Apr. to July. The high modeled RE values up to July, however, suggested that warmer weather will not stop COVID-19 from spreading. Public health intervention is needed to overcome the outbreak.


title: Rethinking game consumption in tourism: a case of the 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in China

text: This opinion piece highlights a lethal connection between novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) and wildlife consumption in tourism. While NCP continues to make headlines in the mainstream media, little academic research has considered this illness, especially through the lens of food neophilic tourism. Yet this research stream requires attention, particularly because food is a key motivational factor behind tourists’ travel and destination choices. In the case of food neophilic tourism, visitors directly consume wildlife and other exotic cuisine. Unfortunately, this novelty-seeking behavior may pose health risks; wild and exotic animals can carry deadly viruses that have been found to trigger global health epidemics such as SARS, H1N1, bird flu, and NCP. Despite international government agencies’ legislative efforts to control wild and exotic animal consumption, demand from food neophilic tourists continues to increase. This paper initiates a dialogue urging tourism scholars to study food tourism and offers practical and theoretical insight to contextualize this perennial and pertinent phenomenon.


title: Assessing suppression strategies against epidemic outbreaks like COVID-19: the SPQEIR model

text: The current COVID-19 outbreak represents a most serious challenge for societies worldwide. It is endangering the health of millions of people, and resulting in severe socioeconomic challenges due to lock-down measures. Governments worldwide aim to devise exit strategies to revive the economy while keeping the pandemic under control. The problem is that the effects of distinct measures are not well quantified. This paper compares several suppression approaches and potential exit strategies using a new extended epidemic SEIR model. It concludes that while rapid and strong lock-down is an effective pandemic suppression measure, a combination of other strategies such as social distancing, active protection and removal can achieve similar suppression synergistically. This quantitative understanding will support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions. Finally, the paper provides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diverse scenarios with our model.


title: Contagion, Containment, Consent: Infectious Disease Pandemics and the Ethics, Rights, and Legality of State-Enforced Vaccination

text: In the face of a pandemic, and in response to a contagion such as SARS-COV-2, can the law allow a state to enforce, or compel, its citizens to undergo mandatory vaccination? Using arguments drawn from ethics, human rights and principles of international law, this piece will attempt to address some of the complexities inherent in such questions It will argue, further, that present circumstances demand that such questions are asked now, before human rights and civil liberties are (inadvertently) compromised The answer is not a simple one: the ethical dilemma surrounding the curtailment of consent demands a delicate balance be struck between this, and the wider common good While human rights prove a natural qualification to the broadening of the latter, even these have their own limitations And it is on this heavily nuanced fence that the legality of state-enforced vaccination appears to sit While a state’s own legal and factual nuances will prove determinative, any human rights qualifications must nevertheless remain within the appropriate boundaries—e g the Siracusa Principles Further, in the face of an ongoing (and ever-evolving) pandemic, it is pertinent decisions on matters such as compulsory vaccination are taken now, before they must be made in haste


A Statistical and Dynamical Model for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths based on a Hybrid Asymmetric Gaussian and SEIR Construct


title: Optimizing the molecular diagnosis of Covid-19 by combining RT-PCR and a pseudo-convolutional machine learning approach to characterize virus DNA sequences

text: The proliferation of the SARS-Cov-2 virus to the whole world caused more than 250,000 deaths worldwide and over 4 million confirmed cases. The severity of Covid-19, the exponential rate at which the virus proliferates, and the rapid exhaustion of the public health resources are critical factors. The RT-PCR with virus DNA identification is still the benchmark Covid-19 diagnosis method. In this work we propose a new technique for representing DNA sequences: they are divided into smaller sequences with overlap in a pseudo-convolutional approach, and represented by co-occurrence matrices. This technique analyzes the DNA sequences obtained by the RT-PCR method, eliminating sequence alignment. Through the proposed method, it is possible to identify virus sequences from a large database: 347,363 virus DNA sequences from 24 virus families and SARS-Cov-2. Experiments with all 24 virus families and SARS-Cov-2 (multi-class scenario) resulted 0.822222 ± 0.05613 for sensitivity and 0.99974 ± 0.00001 for specificity using Random Forests with 100 trees and 30% overlap. When we compared SARS-Cov-2 with similar-symptoms virus families, we got 0.97059 ± 0.03387 for sensitivity, and 0.99187 ± 0.00046 for specificity with MLP classifier and 30% overlap. In the real test scenario, in which SARS-Cov-2 is compared to Coronaviridae and healthy human DNA sequences, we got 0.98824 ± 001198 for sensitivity and 0.99860 ± 0.00020 for specificity with MLP and 50% overlap. Therefore, the molecular diagnosis of Covid-19 can be optimized by combining RT-PCR and our pseudo-convolutional method to identify SARS-Cov-2 DNA sequences faster with higher specificity and sensitivity.


Special COVID-19 Coverage: Death Is an Expected COVID-19 Effect;Covidlateral Damage Is Not


title: COVID-19 epidemic as E-learning boost? Chronological development and effects at an Austrian university against the background of the concept of "E-learning readiness"

text: The COVID-19 crisis influenced universities worldwide in early 2020. In Austria, all universities were closed in March 2020 as a preventive measure, and meetings with over 100 people were banned and a curfew was imposed. This development also had a massive impact on teaching, which in Austria takes place largely face-to-face. In this paper we would like to describe the situation of an Austrian university regarding e-learning before and during the first three weeks of the changeover of the teaching system, using the example of Graz University of Technology (TU Graz). The authors provide insights into the internal procedures, processes and decisions of their university and present figures on the changed usage behaviour of their students and teachers. As a theoretical reference, the article uses the e-learning readiness assessment according to Alshaher (2013), which provides a framework for describing the status of the situation regarding e-learning before the crisis. The paper concludes with a description of enablers, barriers and bottlenecks from the perspective of the members of the Educational Technology department.


title: ASAM on buprenorphine inductions by telephone

text: The American Society of Addiction Medicine (ASAM) is providing some assistance in how to conduct telephone inductions of buprenorphine, in which new patients talk to a doctor on the phone and get a prescription for the Schedule III opioid use disorder (OUD) medication


title: 'Short sighted.' Health experts decry Trump's freeze on U.S. funding for WHO as world fights pandemic

text: President Donald Trump said today he will suspend U S funding to the World Health Organization (WHO) pending a 60- to 90-day investigation into how the agency has handled the response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic Trump accused WHO of “severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus,” at a White House press conference in the Rose Garden this evening, adding “everybody knows what’s going on there ” People involved in the pandemic response around the world reacted with horror to the news “This is a short-sighted decision which will be disastrous for the agency,” says Devi Sridhar, a global health expert at the University of Edinburgh in the United Kingdom “We need the WHO more than ever to support all countries, especially low and middle income ones ”


title: Modeling the COVID-19 dissemination in the South Region of Brazil and testing gradual mitigation strategies

text: This study aims to understand the features of the COVID-19 spread in the South Region of Brazil by estimating the Effective Reproduction Number (ERN) for the states of Parana (PR), Rio Grande do Sul (RS), and Santa Catarina (SC). We used the SIRD (Susceptibles-Infectious-Recovered-Dead) model to describe the past data and to simulate strategies for the gradual mitigation of the epidemic curve by applying non-pharmacological measures. Besides the SIRD model does not include some aspects of COVID-19, as the symptomatic and asymptomatic subgroups of individuals and the incubation period, for example, in this work we intend to use a classical and easy to handle model to introduce a thorough method of adjustment that allows us to achieve reliable fitting for the real data and to obtain insights about the current trends for the pandemic in each locality. Our results demonstrate that for localities for which the ERN is about 2, only rigid measures are efficient to avoid overwhelming the health care system. These findings corroborate the relevance of keeping the value of the ERN below 1 and applying containment measures early.


title: Elucidation on the Physicochemical Properties of Potential and Clinically Approved Antiviral Drugs: A Search for Effective Therapies against SARS-CoV-2 Infection

text: COVID-19 has been confirmed in millions of individuals worldwide, rendering it a global medical emergency In the absence of vaccines and the unavailability of effective drugs for the SARS-CoV-2 infection, vaccine development is being continuously explored and several antiviral compounds and immunotherapies are currently being investigated Given the high similarity in genetic identity between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, the present investigation identified the interaction between the physicochemical properties and the antiviral activity of different potential and clinically approved antiviral drugs against SARS-CoV using hierarchically weighted principal component analysis Representative drugs from the classes of neuraminidase inhibitors, reverse transcriptase inhibitors, protease inhibitors, nucleoside analogues, and other compounds with potential antiviral activity were examined The pharmacologic classification and the biological activity of the different antiviral drugs were described using indices, namely, rotatable bond count, molecular weight, heavy atom count, and molecular complexity (92 32% contribution rate) The physicochemical properties and inhibitory action against SARS-CoV-2 of lopinavir, chloroquine, ivermectin, and ciclesonide validated the adequacy of the current computational approach The findings of the present study provide additional information, although further investigation is warranted to identify potential targets and establish exact mechanisms, in the emergent search and design of antiviral drug candidates and their subsequent synthesis as effective therapies for COVID-19


title: Structure of replicating SARS-CoV-2 polymerase

text: The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 uses an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) for the replication of its genome and the transcription of its genes. Here we present the cryo-electron microscopic structure of the SARS-CoV-2 RdRp in its replicating form. The structure comprises the viral proteins nsp12, nsp8, and nsp7, and over two turns of RNA template-product duplex. The active site cleft of nsp12 binds the first turn of RNA and mediates RdRp activity with conserved residues. Two copies of nsp8 bind to opposite sides of the cleft and position the RNA duplex as it exits. Long helical extensions in nsp8 protrude along exiting RNA, forming positively charged ‘sliding poles’ that may enable processive replication of the long coronavirus genome. Our results will allow for a detailed analysis of the inhibitory mechanisms used by antivirals such as remdesivir, which is currently in clinical trials for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).


title: Negative impact of hyperglycemia on Tocilizumab therapy in COVID-19 patients

text: Tocilizumab is used for treating moderate-severe Covid-19 pneumonia by targeting IL-6 receptors (IL-6R) and reducing cytokine release, but the pooled rate ratio among diabetic patients with adverse vs those with the more favorable course was 2.26. To date, the hyperglycemia has been shown to increase IL-6 and IL-6R, which has been suggested as a severity predictor in lung diseases of Covid-19 patients. However, there are no data about the effects of tocilizumab therapy on outcomes of hyperglycemic Covid-19 patients with pneumonia. To investigate this unsolved need, 475 Covid-19 positive patients were retrospectively studied since March 1st, 2020. Among them, 78 patients with pneumonia disease and treated with tocilizumab were further evaluated for a severe outcome (encompassing both the use of mechanical ventilation and/or death). Thirty-one (39.7%) hyperglycemic and 47 (60.3%) normoglycemic Covid-19 positive patients (blood glucose levels >140 mg/dl, at admission and/or during hospital stay) were evaluated. Noteworthy, 20 (64%) of hyperglycemic and 11 (23.4%) of normoglycemic patients were also diabetics (P<0.01). At admission, more elevated IL-6 levels in hyperglycemic patients were found and persists even after Tocilizumab administration. In a risk adjusted Cox-regression analysis, Tocilizumab in hyperglycemic did not attenuate the risks of severe outcome as did in normoglycemic patients (p<0.009). Therefore, we could conclude that reduced effects of Tocilizumab in hyperglycemic patients may due to the higher plasma IL-6 levels. Interestingly, when we added IL-6 levels in a Cox regression model the significance for the tocilizumab effect was lost (p<0.07). In this context, our observations evidence that optimal Covid-19 infection management with tocilizumab is not achieved during hyperglycemia both in diabetic and non-diabetic patients.


title: CoViD-19 in Italy: a mathematical model to analyze the epidemic containment strategy and the economic impacts

text: The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential costs deriving from the adoption of the CoViD-19 epidemic management strategy. For this purpose, we developed a specific methodology that combines an epidemiological model, known in the literature as "SIR" (Susceptible - Infected - Recovered), and a probabilistic state model, also known as "multi-state". The model thus conceived was then parameterized using the dataset published by the Italian Government through the Civil Protection and the Istituto Superiore di Sanita. We therefore estimated the duration of the disease and the related costs, with reference to the strategy currently under discussion between government institutions and social organizations involved. Given the flexibility of the adopted approach, the tool will also be able to provide useful indications in relation to any alternative strategies that the Government could adopt in the near future, as well as being the starting point of an analysis of the epidemic indirect costs such as losses of GDP fractions.


Prosumption, Networks and Value during a Global Pandemic: Lockdown Leisure and COVID-19


title: Long-term predictions for COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Ukraine, Austria and Italy

text: The SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model, statistical approach to the parameter identification and the official WHO daily data about the confirmed cumulative number of cases were used to make some estimations for the dynamics of the coronavirus pandemic dynamics in Ukraine, Italy and Austria. The volume of the data sets and the influence of the information about the initial stages of the epidemics were discussed in order to have reliable long-time predictions. The final sizes and durations for the pandemic in these countries are estimated.


title: RISK ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION FOR COVID19 DEMOGRAPHICS IN LOW RESOURCE SETTINGS USING A PYTHON DESKTOP APP AND EXCEL MODELS.

text: While the novel covid19 disease caused by sar-cov-2 corona virus has proved a serious threat to mankind it being a pandemic, the rate at which technology in low resource income countries like Uganda has been used to predict the spread and impact of the disease in their economies has not been strongly employed. This paper presents a an excel model and desktop application software developed using open source python programming tools for carrying out risk analysis and prediction of demographics for covid19 disease. Prediction results for both models clearly stated using epidemiological curve, these results can vary based on the force of infection which varies based on government measures and actions. With a certain degree of certainty of the potential impact of the disease on low resource countries, it will foster proper planning and strategical methods to properly manage the pandemic


title: Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Disguise

text: Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pandemic is currently one of the most influential topics as it not only impacts the field of medicine but most importantly, it affects the lives of many individuals throughout the world. We report an interesting 2019-nCoV case in a tertiary community hospital with the initial concern of acute pyelonephritis without respiratory symptoms that ultimately led to the quarantine of a number of healthcare providers. This case emphasizes the importance of radiological evidence in diagnosing 2019-nCoV in the setting of an initial atypical presentation. It also serves as an example of how healthcare providers may need to increase their suspicion for COVID-19 to ensure self-protection and prompt diagnosis in the era of an ongoing pandemic.


How South Africa's Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19 can be optimised


title: Swarm Learning as a privacy-preserving machine learning approach for disease classification

text: Identification of patients with life-threatening diseases including leukemias or infections such as tuberculosis and COVID-19 is an important goal of precision medicine. We recently illustrated that leukemia patients are identified by machine learning (ML) based on their blood transcriptomes. However, there is an increasing divide between what is technically possible and what is allowed because of privacy legislation. To facilitate integration of any omics data from any data owner world-wide without violating privacy laws, we here introduce Swarm Learning (SL), a decentralized machine learning approach uniting edge computing, blockchain-based peer-to-peer networking and coordination as well as privacy protection without the need for a central coordinator thereby going beyond federated learning. Using more than 14,000 blood transcriptomes derived from over 100 individual studies with non-uniform distribution of cases and controls and significant study biases, we illustrate the feasibility of SL to develop disease classifiers based on distributed data for COVID-19, tuberculosis or leukemias that outperform those developed at individual sites. Still, SL completely protects local privacy regulations by design. We propose this approach to noticeably accelerate the introduction of precision medicine.


title: What does $8 billion for coronavirus say about opioid funding?

text: Last week, Congress gave $8 billion to the fight against coronavirus, seemingly overnight Certainly, compared to the extra $2 billion a year for addressing the opioid epidemic, the money came much faster It took years for the State Targeted Response to the Opioid Crisis (STR) grant to be included, as it was in the Cures Act passed by Congress in 2016 and signed into law by President Obama in December of that year The State Opioid Response (SOR) grants continue How did the coronavirus $8 billion ? $6 billion more than the White House had asked for ? materialize so quickly? We asked two Capitol Hill experts


title: Estimating the Asymptomatic Proportion of 2019 Novel Coronavirus onboard the Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

text: The potential infectiousness of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases together with a substantial fraction of asymptomatic infections among all infections, have been highlighted in clinical studies. We conducted statistical modeling analysis to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of the positive COVID-19 infections onboard the Princess Cruises ship along with the timeline of infections. We estimated the asymptomatic proportion at 17.9% (95% CrI: 15.5%-20.2%), with most of the infections occurring before the start of the 2-week quarantine.


On epidemiological ruination


title: Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic with non-pharmaceutical interventions

text: The COVID-19 pandemic has forced societies across the world to resort to social distancing to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Due to the economic impacts of social distancing, there is growing desire to relax these measures. To characterize a range of possible strategies for control and to understand their consequences, we performed an optimal control analysis of a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Given that the pandemic is already underway and controls have already been initiated, we calibrated our model to data from the US and focused our analysis on optimal controls from May 2020 through December 2021. We found that a major factor that differentiates strategies that prioritize lives saved versus reduced time under control is how quickly control is relaxed once social distancing restrictions expire in May 2020. Strategies that maintain control at a high level until summer 2020 allow for tapering of control thereafter and minimal deaths, whereas strategies that relax control in the short term lead to fewer options for control later and a higher likelihood of exceeding hospital capacity. Our results also highlight that the potential scope for controlling COVID-19 until a vaccine is available depends on epidemiological parameters about which there is still considerable uncertainty, including the basic reproduction number and the effectiveness of social distancing. In light of those uncertainties, our results do not constitute a quantitative forecast and instead provide a qualitative portrayal of possible outcomes from alternative approaches to control.


title: A Machine Learning Solution Framework for Combatting COVID-19 in Smart Cities from Multiple Dimensions

text: The spread of COVID-19 across the world continue as efforts are been made from multi-dimension to curtail it is spread and provide treatment. The COVID-19 triggered partial and full lockdown across the globe in an effort to prevent it is spread. The COVID-19 causes serious fatalities with United States of America recording over 3,000 deaths within 24 hours, the highest in the world for a single day. In this paper, we propose a framework integrated with machine learning to curtail the spread of COVID-19 in smart cities. A novel mathematical model is created to show the spread of the COVID-19 in smart cities. The propose solution framework can generate, capture, store and analyze data using machine learning algorithms to detect, prevent the spread of COVID-19, forecast next epidemic, effective contact tracing, diagnose cases, monitor COVID-19 patient, COVID-19 vaccine development, track potential COVID-19 patients, COVID-19 drug discovery and provide better understand of the virus in smart cities. The study outlined case studies on the application of machine learning to help in the fight against COVID-19 in hospitals in smart cities across the world. The framework can provide guide for real world execution in smart cities. The propose framework has the potential for helping national healthcare systems in curtailing the COVID-19 pandemic in smart cities.


title: Cardiometabolic traits, sepsis and severe covid-19 with respiratory failure: a Mendelian randomization investigation

text: Objectives: To investigate whether there is a causal effect of cardiometabolic traits on risk of sepsis and severe covid-19. Design: Mendelian randomisation analysis. Setting: UK Biobank and HUNT study population-based cohorts for risk of sepsis, and genome-wide association study summary data for risk of severe covid-19 with respiratory failure. Participants: 12,455 sepsis cases (519,885 controls) and 1,610 severe covid-19 with respiratory failure cases (2,205 controls). Exposure: Genetic variants that proxy body mass index (BMI), lipid traits, systolic blood pressure, lifetime smoking score, and type 2 diabetes liability - derived from studies considering between 188,577 to 898,130 participants. Main outcome measures: Risk of sepsis and severe covid-19 with respiratory failure. Results: Higher genetically proxied BMI and lifetime smoking score were associated with increased risk of sepsis in both UK Biobank (BMI: odds ratio 1.38 per standard deviation increase, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27 to 1.51; smoking: odds ratio 2.81 per standard deviation increase, 95% CI 2.09-3.79) and HUNT (BMI: 1.41, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.69; smoking: 1.93, 95% CI 1.02-3.64). Higher genetically proxied BMI and lifetime smoking score were also associated with increased risk of severe covid-19, although with wider confidence intervals (BMI: 1.75, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.57; smoking: 3.94, 95% CI 1.13 to 13.75). There was limited evidence to support associations of genetically proxied lipid traits, systolic blood pressure or type 2 diabetes liability with risk of sepsis or severe covid-19. Similar findings were generally obtained when using Mendelian randomization methods that are more robust to the inclusion of pleiotropic variants, although the precision of estimates was reduced. Conclusions: Our findings support a causal effect of elevated BMI and smoking on risk of sepsis and severe covid-19. Clinical and public health interventions targeting obesity and smoking are likely to reduce sepsis and covid-19 related morbidity, along with the plethora of other health-related outcomes that these traits adversely affect.


title: Development of RNA-based assay for rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2 in clinical samples

text: The ongoing spread of pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In the lack of specific drugs or vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, it demands rapid diagnosis and management for controlling the outbreak in the community. Here we report the development of the first rapid-colorimetric assay capable of detecting SARS-CoV-2 in the human nasopharyngeal RNA sample in less than 30 minutes. We utilized a nanomaterial-based optical sensing platform to detect RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) gene of SARS-CoV-2, where the formation of oligo probe-target hybrid led to salt-induced aggregation and changes in gold-colloid color from pink to blue in visible range. Accordingly, we found a change in colloid color from pink to blue in assay containing nasopharyngeal RNA sample from the subject with clinically diagnosed COVID-19 (n=7). The colloid retained pink color when the test includes samples from COVID-19 negative subjects (n=6) or human papillomavirus (HPV) infected women (n=2). The optimized method has detection limit as little as 0.5 ng of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Overall, the developed assay rapidly detects SARS-CoV-2 RNA in clinical samples in a cost-effective manner and would be useful in pandemic management by facilitating mass screening.


title: Assessing required SARS-CoV-2 blanket testing rates for possible control of the outbreak in the epicentre Lusaka province of Zambia with consideration for asymptomatic individuals: a simple mathematical modelling study.

text: Abstract. Introduction: The novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus - 2 (SARS-CoV-2), in Africa is characterised by a more substantial proportion of asymptomatic (or mildly symptomatic) individuals thought to be playing a role in the spread of the infection. The exact proportion and degree of infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals remains unclear. Studies however indicate that their management is crucial for control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methodology: We developed a simplified deterministic susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) mathematical model to assess the effect of active isolation of SARS-CoV-2 infected but asymptomatic individuals through blanket testing for control of the outbreak in Lusaka Province of Zambia. Here we modelled two scenarios; (1) assuming asymptomatic individuals comprised 70% of all COVID-19 cases and (2) asymptomatic individuals comprised only 50% of the cases. For contrast, the model was assessed first under the assumption that asymptomatic individuals are equally as infectious as symptomatic individuals and then secondly, and more likely, assuming asymptomatic individuals are only half as infectious as symptomatic individuals. Results: For the model assuming 70% asymptomatic cases, a minimum sustained blanket testing rate of [≥] 7911 tests/100000 population was sufficient to control the outbreak if asymptomatic individuals are only half as infectious while if equal infectiousness was assumed then a testing rate of [≥] 10028 tests/ 100000 population would be required. For 50% asymptomatic, minimum blanket testing rates of [≥] 4540 tests/ 100000 population was sufficient to control the outbreak at both assumed levels of infectiousness for asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic individuals. Discussion and conclusion: Our model predicts that the current testing rates of {approx} 150/100,000 population are inadequate to control transmission of SARS-Cov-2 in Lusaka. Active isolation of COVID-19 cases including asymptomatic individuals through blanket testing can be used as a possible measure for control of the SARS-Cov-2 transmission in Lusaka, Zambia. Key words: SARS-Cov-2, asymptomatic transmission, deterministic model, blanket testing


Thalidomide against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19): A medicine with a thousand faces


title: Progress in cross-species transmission of human coronaviruses (HCoVs)/ 人冠状病毒跨种传播的研究进展

text: Coronaviruses (CoVs) are a group of ancient and common viruses, posing a severe threat to the health of humans and other animals. Currently, seven human CoVs (HCoVs) have been identified. They are all animal-derived zoonotic pathogens that jump the species barrier from their natural host animals to humans in a direct or indirect manner and lead to interpersonal transmission. The receptor binding domain (RBD) on the S1 subunit of CoV spike (S) protein is one of the key factors determining the cross-species transmission and the invasion potential. This review summarized and analyzed the transmission modes of seven HCoVs and the available structures of HCoV-RBD that mediated the cross-species transmission in order to better understanding the mechanism of CoV cross-species transmission and providing valuable knowledge in response to the potential cross-species transmission of novel CoVs in the future.


Incorporating Test Characteristics Into SARS-CoV-2 Testing Policy—Sense and Sensitivity


title: Aspects of nano-enabling biosensing systems for intelligent healthcare; towards COVID-19 management

text: Biosensors are emerging as efficient (sensitive and selective) and affordable analytical diagnostic tools for early-stage disease detection, as required for personalized health wellness management. Low-level detection of a targeted disease biomarker (pM level) has emerged extremely useful to evaluate the progression of disease under therapy. Such collected bioinformatics and its multi-aspects-oriented analytics is in demand to explore the effectiveness of prescribed treatment, optimize therapy, and correlate biomarker level with disease pathogenesis. Owing to nanotechnology-enabled advancements in sensing unit fabrication, device integration, interfacing, packaging, and sensing performance at point-of-care (POC) made diagnostics according to the requirements of disease management and patient disease profile i.e., in a personalized manner. Efforts are continuously being made to promote state of art biosensing technology as a next-generation non-invasive disease diagnostics methodology. Keeping this in view, this progressive opinion article describes personalized health care management related analytical tools which provide access to better health for everyone, overall to manage healthy tomorrow timely. Considering accomplishments and predictions, such affordable intelligent diagnostics tools are urgently required to manage COVID-19 pandemic, a life-threatening respiratory infectious disease, where a rapid, selective and sensitive detection of human beta severe acute respiratory system coronavirus (SARS-COoV-2) protein is the key factor.


title: COVID-19 and oral diseases: How can we manage hospitalized and quarantined patients while reducing risks?

text: We know the importance of managing the oral health of patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the risk of acquire it in all healthcare workers. Dental pathologies are very frequent and there is a risk of facing many dental emergencies in the following weeks and months. Therefore, here we propose some simple procedures attempting to prevent them.


title: Kinetics and performance of the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody assay

text: Objectives: To assess the performance (sensitivity and specificity) of the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody assay across three clinical settings. Methods: Antibody testing was performed on three clinical cohorts of COVID-19 disease: hospitalised patients with PCR confirmation, hospitalized patients with a clinical diagnosis but negative PCR, and symptomatic healthcare workers (HCWs). Pre-pandemic respiratory infection sera were tested as negative controls. The sensitivity of the assay was calculated at different time points (<5 days, 5-9 days, 10-14 days, 15-19 days, >20 days, >42 days), and compared between cohorts. Results: Performance of the Abbot Architect SARS-CoV-2 assay varied significantly between cohorts. For PCR confirmed hospitalised patients (n = 114), early sensitivity was low: <5 days: 44.4% (95%CI: 18.9%-73.3%), 5-9 days: 32.6% (95%CI, 20.5%-47.5%), 10-14 days: 65.2% (95% CI 44.9%-81.2%), 15-20 days: 66.7% (95% CI: 39.1%-86.2%) but by day 20, sensitivity was 100% (95%CI, 86.2-100%). In contrast, 17 out of 114 symptomatic healthcare workers tested at >20 days had negative results, generating a sensitivity of 85.1% (95%CI, 77.4% - 90.5%). All pre-pandemic sera were negative, a specificity of 100%. Seroconversion rates were similar for PCR positive and PCR negative hospitalised cases. Conclusions: The sensitivity of the Abbot Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay increases over time, with sensitivity not peaking until 20 days post symptoms. Performance varied markedly by setting, with sensitivity significantly worse in symptomatic healthcare workers than in the hospitalised cohort. Clinicians, policymakers, and patients should be aware of the reduced sensitivity in this setting.


Clinical and daily respiratory care and clinical trials within the COVID-19 era


title: Global Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 and Malaria: An Epidemiological Paradox in the Early Stage of A Pandemic

text: In the current work, we discovered and analyzed the epidemiological paradox between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and malaria in the initial phase of the ongoing pandemic. From the analysis of distribution data, the endemic presence of malaria seems to protect some populations from COVID-19 outbreak, particularly in the least developed countries. In this sense, molecular and genetic variations associated with malaria (e.g., in ACE2) might play a protective role against coronavirus infection. Moreover, the mechanism of action of some antimalarial drugs, e.g., the antiviral function, suggests their potential role in the chemoprophylaxis of coronavirus epidemics, despite possible adverse effects (e.g., retinal toxicity). All these data provide important insights to understand the spreading mechanisms of COVID-19, and to direct scientific research toward the study of some currently available medications.


COVID-19 Symptom Tracker Keeps Cancer Patients Connected


title: Implications of SARS-CoV-2 mutations for genomic RNA structure and host microRNA targeting

text: The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a recently-emerged zoonotic pathogen already well adapted to transmission and replication in humans. Although the mutation rate is limited, recently introduced mutations in SARS-CoV-2 have the potential to alter viral fitness. In addition to amino acid changes, mutations could affect RNA secondary structure critical to viral life cycle, or interfere with sequences targeted by host miRNAs. We have analysed subsets of genomes from SARS-CoV-2 isolates from around the globe and show that several mutations introduce changes in Watson-Crick pairing, with resultant changes in predicted secondary structure. Filtering to targets matching miRNAs expressed in SARS-CoV-2 permissive host cells, we identified twelve separate target sequences in the SARS-CoV-2 genome; eight of these targets have been lost through conserved mutations. A genomic site targeted by the highly abundant miR-197-5p, overexpressed in patients with cardiovascular disease, is lost by a conserved mutation. Our results are compatible with a model that SARS-CoV-2 replication within the human host could be constrained by host miRNA defence. The impact of these and further mutations on secondary structures, miRNA targets or potential splice sites offers a new context in which to view future SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and a potential platform for engineered viral attenuation and antigen presentation.