The fine chemical industry has undergone several boom and bust phases during its almost 30 years of existence. The biggest boom took place in the late 1990s, when high-dosage, high volume anti-AIDS drugs and COX-2 inhibitors gave a big boost to custom manufacturing. After the end of the "irrational exuberance" in 2000, the industry suffered a first bust in 2003, as a result of capacity expansions, the advent of Asian competitors and a ruinous M&A activity, several billion dollars of shareholder value were destroyed. The most recent –minor- boom is associated with stockpiling of GlaxoSmithKlines Relenza (zanamivir) and Roches Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) by many countries in order to prepare for a possible avian flu epidemic. Surprisingly, the main cause for the 2009 slump had not been the general recession, but slow-downs of the growth and, even more so, inventory adjustments by the pharma industry. They resulted in postponements or cancellations of orders. The unfavorable development was in sharp contrast to the very optimistic growth forecasts, which many fine chemical companies, had announced. They had been based on equally promising sector reports from investment banks, which in turn had evolved from forward projections of the preceding boom period. In most cases, these projections have been missed by a large margin. 
At the end of the "irrational exuberance" at the turn of the millennium and again in 2009 almost half of the industry achieved a return on sales (ROS) of more than 10%, and less than 10% an ROS below 5%.  In the worst years, 2003 and 2009, almost half of the companies suffered from an ROS of less than 5%. Whereas during the period under review, 2000–2009. the average EBITDA / sales and EBIT / sales ratios of representative companies, resp. divisions were 15% and 7%, respectively, in the period 2000–2009, the numbers were 20% and 10–13% in the boom, and 10% and 5% in the bust phases. The factor 2 between the high and low numbers reflects the volatility of the industry's profitability. All in all, the average Western fine-chemical firms have been making a return below the cost of capital, i.e. they are not reinvestment grade.