The initiation time is related to the rate at which carbonation propagates in the concrete cover thickness. Once that carbonation reaches the steel surface, altering the local pH value of the environment, the protective thin film of oxides on the steel surface becomes instable, and corrosion initiates involving an extended portion of the steel surface. One of the most simplified and accredited models describing the propagation of carbonation in time is to consider penetration depth proportional to the square root of time, following the correlation
where  is the carbonation depth,  is time, and  is the carbonation coefficient. The corrosion onset takes place when the carbonation depth reaches the concrete cover thickness, and therefore can be evaluated as
where  is the concrete cover thickness. 
 is the key design parameter to assess initiation time in the case of carbonation-induced corrosion. It is expressed in  mm/year and depends on the characteristics of concrete and the exposure conditions. The penetration of gaseous CO in a porous medium such as concrete occurs via diffusion. The humidity content of concrete is one of the main influencing factors of CO diffusion in concrete. If concrete pores are completely and permanently saturated (for instance in submerged structures) CO diffusion is prevented. On the other hand, for completely dry concrete, the chemical reaction of carbonation cannot occur. Another influencing factor for CO diffusion rate is concrete porosity. Concrete obtained with higher w/c ratio or obtained with an incorrect curing process presents higher porosity at hardened state, and is therefore subjected to a higher carbonation rate. The influencing factors concerning the exposure conditions are the environmental temperature, humidity and concentration of CO. Carbonation rate is higher for environments with higher humidity and temperature, and increases in polluted environments such as urban centres and inside close spaces as tunnels.
To evaluate propagation time in the case of carbonation-induced corrosion, several models have been proposed. In a simplified but commonly accepted method, the propagation time is evaluated as function of the corrosion propagation rate. If the corrosion rate is considered constant, t can be estimated as:
where  is the limit corrosion penetration in steel and  is the corrosion propagation rate. 
 must be defined in function of the limit state considered. Generally for carbonation-induced corrosion the concrete cover cracking is considered as limit state, and in this case a  equal to 100 μm is considered.  depends on the environmental factors in proximity of the corrosion process, such as the availability of oxygen and water at concrete cover depth. Oxygen is generally available at the steel surface, except for submerged structures. If pores are constantly fully saturated, a very low amount of oxygen reaches the steel surface and corrosion rate can be considered negligible. For very dry concretes  is negligible due to the absence of water which prevents the chemical reaction of corrosion. For intermediate concrete humidity content, corrosion rate increases with increasing the concrete humidity content. Since the humidity content in a concrete can significantly vary along the year, it is general not possible to define a constant . One possible approach is to consider a mean annual value of .