



I wouldn't give baserunning that much value.

The above effect is clear, but there are other effects as well.  If
Olerud hits a double, any runner on first will score; if Alomar legs an
extra base onto a hit in the gap, the runner on first may need to hold
at third.  Thus Olerud's doubles have more advancement value than
Alomar's.  (Of course, Alomar is more likely to score after hitting a
double.)

Another reason not to give too much extra value to baserunning is that
the runs created formulas work for very fast and very slow teams.  No
team in the 1950's ran much, but some teams certainly had faster players
than others.  Still, the current runs created formulas work just as well
in the 1950's for all teams.  

Bill James gives the 1955-1958 Senators as an example.  They used Harmon
Killebrew regularly as a pinch runner, and in 1957, stole 13 bases with
38 times caught stealing.  Yet they scored slightly more runs than
predicted by Runs Created.


